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Analysis of CO2 Emissions to Consider Future Technologies and Integrated
Approaches in the Road Transport Sector
Shuichi KANARI
Japan Automobile Research Institute
February 26, 2013IEEJ APERC Annual ConferenceKeio Plaza Hotel Tokyo, Shinjuku, Tokyo
Contents
2
１．Introduction
２．Outline of CEAMAT（Model Structure, Analysis Target）
３．Input Data（Demand of Road Transport Sector，Automotive Technologies）
４．Result of Scenario Analysis（Number of Automobiles, Fuel Economy，CO2 Emissions）
５．Reduction of CO2 Emissions with Integrated Approaches
６．Conclusion
※CEAMAT：Energy Analysis model for the long term in road the transport sector
Contents
3
１．Introduction
２．Outline of CEAMAT（Model Structure, Analysis Target）
３．Input Data（Demand of Road Transport Sector，Automotive Technologies）
４．Result of Scenario Analysis（Number of Automobiles, Fuel Economy，CO2 Emissions）
５．Reduction of CO2 Emissions with Integrated Approaches
６．Conclusion
Background of this Research
4
Increasing concerns about energy security and global climate change
Necessity of energy saving, fuel diversification and reduction of greenhouse gas
Not enough evaluation of long term technical scenarios in the road transport sector
Not considering cost-effectiveness and realizing fuel economy improvement technologies
Restriction of analysis vehicle target (e.g. only Passenger cars)
Purpose of this Research
5
Development of long term CO2 reduction scenarios to consider future automotive technologies and integrated approaches in the Japanese automotive sector.
1. Construction of a database with demand of the road transport sector and future automotive technologies
2. Development of cost-effectiveness tools for future automotive technologies
3. Scenario analysis
4. Analysis of CO2 reduction with integrated approaches
Contents
6
１．Introduction
２．Outline of CEAMAT（Model Structure, Analysis Target）
３．Input Data（Demand of Road Transport Sector，Automotive Technologies）
４．Result of Scenario Analysis（Number of Automobiles, Fuel Economy，CO2 Emissions）
５．Reduction of CO2 Emissions with Integrated Approaches
６．Conclusion
What is CEAMAT?
7
CEAMAT is an analysis energy model for the road transport sector for the long-term.CEAMAT links with the IEEJ2050 model that is an energy analysis model for all
sectors worldwide, developed by The Institute of Energy Economics, JAPAN.
• Oil （Gasoline/Diesel）• Biofuel• Electricity• Hydrogen• CNG・LPG• Synthetic fuel• Other
• World population• Each country/region GDP• Energy consumption of each sector
• Primary energy consumption• Cost of fuel and electricity• Vehicle demand• No. of new vehicle sales/ in use
• Energy consumption• CO2 emissions• Annual total cost
Social Cost
●Emission of GHG●Social cost （infrastructure, tax, etc.）
●Vehicle cost / fuel cost
Estimation of Economy/Energy/No. of Vehicles
Estimation of Fuel Demand
• Gasoline/Diesel Vehicle• Biofuel Vehicle• HEV・PHEV・EV• FCV• NGV・LPG• Other
Estimation of Fuel Economy and Vehicle Number by Each Technology
Output
Analysis Scenario
IEEJ 2050 model (World) CEAMAT (Japan)
Integrated Approaches
●Improving Traffic flow●Eco-driving
Target Vehicle Type and Class
8
Vehicle section, focus on the Japanese automotive market
Passenger car Truck Bus
Passenger car Truck Bus
Middle
(＞ 2000cc)
Large
(GVW ＞ 8t)
Large
(GVW ＞ 8t)
Small
(≦ 2000cc)
Middle
(3.5t＜GVW ≦ 8t)
Small
(GVW ≦ 8t)
Mini
(≦ 660cc)
Small
(GVW ≦3.5t)
Mini
(≦ 660cc)
Target Automotive Technologies
9DICEV (mixed Bio-diesel) GICEPHEVHICEV
GICEV (mixed Bio-ethanol) GICEHEV
EV
HFCV
CNGV
Technology Fuel path
GICEV Gasoline Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle Gasoline/EthanolGICEHEV Gasoline Internal Combustion Engine Hybrid Vehicle
DICEV Diesel Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle Diesel oil/BDFDICEHEV Diesel Internal Combustion Engine Hybrid VehicleHICEV Hydrogen Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle Hydrogen/GasolineHICEHEV Hydrogen Internal Combustion Engine Hybrid VehicleCNGV Compressed Natural Gas Vehicle CNGDMEV Dimethylether Vehicle DMELPGV Liquefied Petroleum Gas Vehicle LPG
EV Electric Vehicle ElectricityHFCV Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle Hydrogen
GICEPHEV Gasoline Internal Combustion Engine Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle Gasoline/ElectricityDICEPHEV Diesel Internal Combustion Engine Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle Diesel oil/ElectricityHFCPHEV Hydrogen Fuel Cell Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle Hydrogen/Electricity
Model Structure for New Vehicles
10
Base Vehicle Weight
⊿Engine Weight
⊿Fuel Tank Weight
⊿Motor Weight
⊿Battery Weight
⊿FC System Weight
⊿Battery Coefficient
Engine Power
Vehicle Weight ICE Fuel Estimation Formula
EV Fuel Estimation Formula (DC)
FC System Coefficient
HEV FuelEconomy
ICE Fuel Economy
Electric Charger Coefficient
EV Electric Economy (AC)
FC Fuel Economy (AC)
Fuel EconomySub Model
Base Vehicle Cost
⊿Engine Cost
⊿Fuel Tank Cost
⊿Motor Cost
⊿Battery Cost
⊿FC System Cost
⊿Plug-in Additional Cost
ICE Fuel Consumption Improvement Cost
Vehicle Cost
Fuel Economy
Vehicle Cost Sub Model
Vehicle Cost
Automotive Tax
Usage Age
Fuel Cost per Unit
Driving Distance per Year
Line-up Number
Sales Number
Fuel Cost per Year
Total Cost for Usage Age
Formula Selecting Each Technology
Each Technology Sale NumberEach Technology New
Sales Number Sub Model
Related Probability of Technology Choice andDriving Distance (e.g. GICEV vs. GHEV)
11
Probability of technology choice (Pr) is estimated by total cost in the depreciation period and Line-up number for each distance.
Kk Tkk
Tkkk CM
CM
' '01'
01
)exp()exp(Pr
k：Technology sectionK：Assembly technology sectionCTk：Total cost in usage periodMk：Line-up numberθ0 , θ 1：Parameter (θ 0=-6.46, θ 1=0.94)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Prob
ability techn
ology choice
Annual driving distance (km/year)
GICEHEV
GICE
Contents
12
１．Introduction
２．Outline of CEAMAT（Model Structure, Analysis Target）
３．Input Data（Demand of Road Transport Sector，Automotive Technologies）
４．Result of Scenario Analysis（Number of Automobiles, Fuel Economy，CO2 Emissions）
５．Reduction of CO2 Emissions with Integrated Approaches
６．Conclusion
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Annu
al driv
ing distance （km
/year）
Year
Passenger carTruckBus
0
2
4
6
8
10
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
FUel price（
with
tax：
Yen/MJ）
Year
Gasoline
Diesel oil
CNG
Electricity
Hydrogen
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Vehicle
mileage traveled
（VM
T：billion
person・
km）
Year
Passenger car
Bus
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Traffic volum
e（Billion
ton
・km
）
Year
Truck
Demand of the Road Transport Sector and Fuel Pricein the IEEJ2050 Model
13
Number of Vehicles in Use
Demand of Passenger car（Passenger car & Bus）
Demand of freight （Truck）
Fuel Price
0
5
10
15
20
25
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Additio
nnal Price
（10
,000
yen）
Improving fuel economy ratio（%）
Middle
Small
Mini
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Additio
nal P
rice（
10,000
yen）
Improving fuel economy ratio（%）
Large
Middle
Small
Mini
Efficiency and Price of Future Technologies in ICE Vehicles
14
Base vehicle：Standard vehicles in the year 2000Choice of good cost-effectiveness technology combinationsDetermination of approximate curve to use good cost-effectiveness technology
combinations
Grouping Improving FE Technology Passengercar Truck
Engine
Gasoline Direct Injection（Stoichimetric）
○
Gasoline HCCI ○
Cam Phasing ○
Engine Downsizing ○ ○
EGR ○ ○
Improved Engine Friction ○ ○
Improved firing chamber ○ ○
Other normaladvance technologies ○ ○
Turbo Compound ○
Variable Compression Ratio ○
Valuable Valve Timing ○ ○
2 stages Turbo ○
After treatment Device ○
Transmission
CVT ○
5AT ○
6AT ○
Multiple Transmission ○
High Differential Gears Ratio ○
Direct-connected maximum gear ○
Dual Clutch ○
AMT ○ ○
AccessoriesElectric Power Steering ○
Improved Alternator ○
Electric Accessories ○ ○
Price curve（Passenger car）
Price curve（Truck）
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Battery P
rice（
10,000
yen/kW
h）
Year
Passenger car
Truck
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
FC system
price（
10,000
yen/kW
）
Year
Passenger car
Truck
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Battery W
eight（kg/kWh）
Year
Passenger car
Truck
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Imrovemen
t ratio of FC system
effiicie
ncy
Year
Passenger car
Truck
Scenario of Future Technological Factors with EV and HFCV
15
Price and efficiency of battery and fuel cell systems in the future are based on government and private sector reports and interviews.Future scenarios are efficiency improvement and a lower price, considering advanced technologies and mass production.Trucks’ part prices are higher than passenger car parts’ prices, because system accessories are larger and more expensive.
Battery Weight
Battery Price
Fuel cell system Price
Fuel cell system efficiency improving Ratio
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Fuel econo
my
（MJ/km
）
Year
GICEV
GICEHEV
DICEV
EV
HFCV
GICEPHEV
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300
2,500
2,700
2,900
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Vehicle
price（
1,00
0yen
）
Year
GICEV
GICEHEV
DICEV
EV
HFCV
GICEPHEV
New Vehicle Energy Economy and Price（e.g. Small Passenger car）
16
All technologies improved energy economy, considering advance technology factors such as ICE technologies, battery and fuel cost.Improvement technologies price of improvement are added to ICEV's
vehicle price.Other new automobiles come down in price to reflect mass production
of technology factors (Battery and fuel cell system, etc.).
Energy economy（JC08 mode）
Vehicle price
Contents
17
１．Introduction
２．Outline of CEAMAT（Model Structure, Analysis Target）
３．Input Data（Demand of Road Transport Sector，Automotive Technologies）
４．Result of Scenario Analysis（Number of Automobiles, Fuel Economy，CO2 Emissions）
５．Reduction of CO2 Emissions with Integrated Approaches
６．Conclusion
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Num
ber o
f new
veh
icles （1,00
0Units
）
Year
Other
DICEPHEV
GICEPHEV
HFCV
EV
LPGV
CNGV
DICEHEV
DICEV
GICEHEV
GICEV
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Num
ber o
f veh
icles in
use
（Million Un
its）
Year
Other
DICEPHEV
GICEPHEV
HFCV
EV
LPGV
CNGV
DICEHEV
DICEV
GICEHEV
GICEV
Number of New Vehicles and Vehicles in Use（Passenger Car）
18
Number of vehicles in useShare of next generation vehicles ：
43%（2050）
Number of vehicles in use
※Next generation vehicles are HEV，EV，PHEV，FCV and CNGV．This definition is from a report by METI, “Diffusion report of next generation vehicles 2010” written in Japanese.
Number of new vehicles
Number of new vehiclesShare of next generation vehicles※：
48%（2050）
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Fuel econo
my vehicle
s in use （MJ/km
）
Year
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TtW CO2 em
issions （Mt‐CO
2）
Year
Fuel Economy of Vehicles in Use and TtW CO2 Emissionsin the Passenger Car Sector
19
CO2 emissions in 2050:-55%（Based on 2005）
Fuel economy of vehicles in use
CO2 Emissions
CO2 Emissions（Road Transport Sector）
CO2 emissions in 2050：-47%（Based on 2005）
0
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TtW CO2 em
issions
（Mt‐CO
2）
Year
Passenger carTruckBus
Contents
21
１．Introduction
２．Outline of CEAMAT（Model Structure, Analysis Target）
３．Input Data（Demand of Road Transport Sector，Automotive Technologies）
４．Result of Scenario Analysis（Number of Automobiles, Fuel Economy，CO2 Emissions）
５．Reduction of CO2 Emissions with Integrated Approaches
６．Conclusion
Analysis Process of CO2 Reduction for Eco-driving
22
CO2 reduction of eco-driving per unitPassenger car： 13%Truck： 9%
Popularization ratio of eco-driving in 2050Passenger car & Truck ： 70%
CO2 weighting factor in 2050 (Based on vehicle mileage traveled)
Passenger car： 65%Truck： 35%
Each CO2 reduction for eco-driving
Passenger car ：9%Truck ： 6%
CO2 reduction for eco-driving
Total ： 8%
Average of 9 organizations※
Energy ITS research meeting report
Result of CEAMAT
9 organizations of evaluating eco-driving：NIES，Libertas terra Co.Ltd，HONDA R&D CO.LtdIID.Inc. NTSEL，LEVO, etc
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0 20 40 60 80 100
CO2 em
ission factor (g
/km)
Average speed (km/h)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Driving DIstance Distrib
ution
Average speed range (km/h)
2005
2050
23
GDP in Japan Road project cost in Japan
CO2 reduction to road improvementTotal ： 4%
Changing average speed in Japan
Analysis Process of CO2 Reduction to Improving Traffic Flow
Speed vs. CO2 emissions
Item CO2 Reduction
Platooning 0.2%
Traffic light control （Only vehicle） 0.04%
Traffic light control（link up with infrastructure）
2%
Full route information 1.4%
Predicting optimal starting time 0.1%
Energy ITS research meeting report
CO2 reduction to implement technologies
Total ： 4%
CO2 reduction to improving traffic flowTotal ： 7%
Speed distribution（all vehicle categories）
CO2 Reduction for Integrated Approaches(Road Transport Sector)
24
Technological composition is assumed to be the same as the Baseline case, that is without an integrated approach.CO2 Reduction in 2050：
55% based on 2005（Baseline case：47%）
0
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TtW CO2 Em
ission
s （Mt‐CO
2）
Year
Baseline case
Baseline case + Integrated Approach case
Contents
25
１．Introduction
２．Outline of CEAMAT（Model Structure, Analysis Target）
３．Input Data（Demand of Road Transport Sector，Automotive Technologies）
４．Result of Scenario Analysis（Number of Automobiles, Fuel Economy，CO2 Emissions）
５．Reduction of CO2 Emissions with Integrated Approaches
６．Conclusion
Conclusion
26
Cost-effectiveness analysis tools including an automotive database with advanced technologies were developed, and future scenarios were analyzed. In addition, integrated approaches were researched and calculated for their potential to reduce CO2 emission.
1. From the result of this scenario analysis, CO2 reduction potential of the road transport sector with next generation automobiles is calculated as 47% (based on 2005) in 2050.
2. CO2 reduction potential from next generation automobiles and integrated approaches (Improving traffic flow and Eco-driving) is calculated as 55% (based on 2005) in 2050.
From the result of CO2 reduction potential from improving traffic flow and eco-driving, we’ve shown it is necessary to popularize next generation automobiles and integrated approaches.
Thank you for your attention!
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