AMI Market Opportunities & Challenges in Asia Pacific
Presented at
World Smart Grids Seminar 2010
Seoul, South Korea
19 May 2010
Presented by
Subbu Bettadapura
Associate Director – Energy & Power
Frost & Sullivan
AMI Technology Trends & Evolution
Agenda
1
2
3
Key Industry Challenges4
AMI Benefits & Features
AMI Introduction and Value Chain
22
APAC Market Size and Cost breakdown
Key Industry Challenges4
5
Key Growth Countries and Market Dynamics6
UtilityMetering
Utility
Legacy System vs AMI Systems
Consumer
Electricity Meter
Cannot communicate
to/from consumer
One-way communication
3
Utility
AMI
BPL
RF MESH
PLC
BPL
MDMS
UtilityMDMSWANLANMeteringConsumer
CDMA
GSM
HAN
In home
Display
Two-way
communication
Smart
Meter
AMI Value chain
MDMSWide Area
Network (WAN)
Home Area
Network (HAN)Smart Meter
System Integrators
Consultants
Installation Contractors
4
Process and
store meter
data
Major Players
Itron, eMeter,
SAP
Network (WAN)
Public/Private
Network
Local Area
Network (LAN)RF mesh, PLC, BPL,
WiMax, GPRS
Network (HAN)Zigbee, Home plug
WiFi, Z-Wave,
Wavenis,
Digitalstrom
Major Players
GridConnect, Freescale,
MicroChip
Smart Meter
Data collection &
storage
Major Players
GE, Landis+Gyr, PRI,
Elster
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Major Players
Itron, Elster, SSN, EKA
Systems, Trilliant
Meter Vendors Communication Vendors IT Vendors
AMI Technology UpdateIT systems
(GPRS, GSM,
EDGE,RF,
NetworkCommunication & application servers
Data Management Server( Outage,
Tariffs, Geography)
5
EDGE,RF,
Power line)
Meter Management Meter Data Management
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Advanced Metering Benefits
Reduced meter reading
errors
Reduced billing errorsReduced meter
reading costs
Reduced Energy bills
6
Prepayment option
Physical privacy for consumers
Half Hourly usage data
AMI Operational Benefits
7
Avoided meter reading costs and field services are the two main benefits of AMI
Source: Rochester Gas and Electric Corporation, New York State Electric and Gas Company
AMI Features
22
33
44
55
66
11
Remote reading and also ability to manually readRemote reading and also ability to manually read
Remote connection and disconnectionRemote connection and disconnection
Two-way communication and Communication path to in-home displayTwo-way communication and Communication path to in-home display
Visual display on meterVisual display on meter
Meter settings reconfiguration (remote)Meter settings reconfiguration (remote)
Record at least Hourly Usage of dataRecord at least Hourly Usage of data
8
66
77
Meter settings reconfiguration (remote)Meter settings reconfiguration (remote)
Tamper detectionTamper detection
88
99
1010
1111
Outage notificationOutage notification
Prepayment optionPrepayment option
Time of useTime of use
Load ControlLoad Control
1212 Measurement of active/reactive energy flow (To allow for distributed generation) Measurement of active/reactive energy flow (To allow for distributed generation)
AMI Technology Evolution
Time of use
Demand Response
Energy Management Systems
Real time
Outage Notification
Remote Connect/ Disconnect
9
2011 2012 20132010 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
Remote Meter Configuration
In-Home Display
Time of useReal time communication
Disconnect
Remote meter reading
AMI – Communication Technology Options
Communication Options
Communication Options
GPRS, GSM, SMS,GPRS, GSM, SMS, RF Mesh RF Mesh WIFI, DSLWIFI, DSLPower Line Power Line
Communication is a vital factor for smart meters
10
GPRS, GSM, SMS,WIMAX, UMTS
GPRS, GSM, SMS,WIMAX, UMTS
RF Mesh NetworkRF Mesh Network
WIFI, DSLWIFI, DSLPower Line Carriers
Power Line Carriers
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Wavenis
Open
Source
Alliance
Technology Trends – Communication Technology Penetration
AMI AMI GPRSGPRS
RFRF
2010 2015 2020
11
AMI Technologies
AMI Technologies
WiMAXWiMAX
PLCPLC
Low Medium High
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Advanced Metering - Industry Challenges
Risk on information security clouding consumers judgment
Fear of losing power over load control by the utilities
12
Lack of Standard Protocols and Interoperability
Initial upfront cost and cost recovery
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Issue of ”Stranded Assets” and evolving technology
AMI – Roll out Cost breakdown for Projects
13
Smart Meter and its installation form the majority of cost involved in AMI implementation
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Asia Pacific AMI Market Size
• Total APAC AMI market is expected
to generate a cumulative demand of
41 million meter units by 2017
• The market is estimated to generate
revenues of about US$12.5 billion
from 2009 through 2017
14
from 2009 through 2017
• The market is estimated to have a
CAGR of 69.32% for the period from
2009-2017
• The growth will be fuelled by AMI
activity in Australia, New Zealand,
South Korea, Japan and Taiwan
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Asia Pacific AMI Market size (USD million)
0.00
500.00
1000.00
1500.00
2000.00
2500.00
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Year
USD million
0.00%
100.00%
200.00%
300.00%
400.00%
500.00%
600.00%
700.00%
% growth
Asia Pacif ic AMI Market Size (USD millions) % grow th
2010 2015 2020
Drivers
Drivers and Restraints - Australia
Government Mandate
2010 2015 2020
Rapidly changing
technology
Restraints
15
High Medium Low
Impact
Lack of standards
Rising cost to consumers
Enhanced Customer
information
Operational Efficiency
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
Australia
Australia AMI market size - 32.6 million USD, 2009
3.26
16
� Victorian government is at the
forefront of AMI roll out
� First to mandate the rollout of
smart meters across the state
� Victoria and New South Wales
are scheduled to complete the
rollout by 2013
Source: Frost & Sullivan
13.04
Smart Meter Revenue Communication Network Revenue
2010 2015 2020
Drivers
Drivers and Restraints – New Zealand
Demand side participation
2010 2015 2020
Rapidly changing
technology
Restraints
17
High Medium Low
Impact
Lack of standards
Ageing workforce
Compliance deadline
of 2015
Highly competitive &
Deregulated market
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
New Zealand
New Zealand AMI market size - 35 million USD, 2009
3.5
18
14
Smart Meter Revenue Communication Network Revenue
� AMI rollout not regulated by
the government
� An aggressive market-led
rollout
� The main network
technologies being deployed
are RF mesh and GPRS
Source: Frost & Sullivan
2010 2015 2020
Drivers
Drivers and Restraints – Taiwan
Reduced energy wastage
2010 2015 2020
Regulation
Restraints
19
High Medium Low
Impact
Lack of standards
Lack of funding
Reduction in peak load
Reduction in Green House
Gas emissions
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
Taiwan
Taiwan AMI market size - 0.25 million USD, 2009
0.03
20
� Taiwan moving at a fast pace
for smart meters and related
components
� Plans to enter the
international market with its
products in the next 3-4 years
� AMI is in its pilot stage in
Taiwan currently
0.1
Smart Meter Revenue Communication Network Revenue
Source: Frost & Sullivan
2010 2015 2020
Drivers
Drivers and Restraints – South Korea
Energy Security
2010 2015 2020
Rapidly changing
technology
Restraints
21
High Medium Low
Impact
Lack of standards
Lack of private funding
Boosting technology export
Smart grid implementation
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
South Korea
South Korea AMI market size - 25 million, 2009
2.5
22
� South Korea plans to start
installing smart meters
nationwide by 2012
� Lagging behind other
developed nations in smart
meter deployment (only 4%
penetration)
� Power Line Carrier (PLC) is
the main technology being
deployed
10
Smart Meter Revenue Communication Network Revenue
Source: Frost & Sullivan
2010 2015 2020
Drivers
Drivers and Restraints – Japan
Infrastructure for EVs
2010 2015 2020
No clarity on technology to
deploy
Restraints
23
High Medium Low
Impact
Efficient grid
Vertically integrated power
suppliers
Developing new industries
and enhanced services
Integration of renewable
energy into grid
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
Japan
� AMI activity is just beginning
Japan AMI market size 16 million USD , 2009
1.6
24
� AMI activity is just beginning
in Japan
� Kansai Electric has just started
a planned 12 million smart
meter rollout
� Tokyo Electric is doing a pilot
for 90,000 meters
� Other utilities in the early
stages of pilots/planning
6.4
Smart Meter Revenue Communication Network Revenue
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Key Growth Markets – SEA/NA & Pacific
South Korea
� Market size of 3.15 billionUSD over the next 9 years
� CAGR of 71% from 2009-2017
Japan
� Market size of 4.16 billionUSD over the next 9 years
� CAGR of 85% from 2009-2017
25
Australia
� Market size of 4.02 billionUSD over the next 9 years
� CAGR of 70.45% from2009-2017
New Zealand
� Market size of 525 millionUSD over the next 9 years
� CAGR of 35% from 2009-2017
2017
Taiwan
� Market size of 600 millionUSD over the next 9 years
� CAGR of 137% from 2009-2017
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Summary of Key Findings
The Asia Pacific advanced metering industry is in a nascent stage with rollouts expected to begin around 2011-2012The Asia Pacific advanced metering industry is in a nascent stage with rollouts expected to begin around 2011-2012
The Asia Pacific AMI market will be worth US$12.5 billion through 2017 and is likely to grow at at a CAGR of 69.3%
(2009-2017)
The Asia Pacific AMI market will be worth US$12.5 billion through 2017 and is likely to grow at at a CAGR of 69.3%
(2009-2017)
The growth in AMI is fuelled by Australia/New Zealand in the short term & Korea, Japan and Taiwan in the long termThe growth in AMI is fuelled by Australia/New Zealand in the short term & Korea, Japan and Taiwan in the long term
26
Thailand , Malaysia and Philippines are currently focused only on automated meter reading capabilities for
commercial & industrial consumers. No plans yet for a large scale residential roll out
Thailand , Malaysia and Philippines are currently focused only on automated meter reading capabilities for
commercial & industrial consumers. No plans yet for a large scale residential roll out
Singapore is expected to begin rollout of AMI around 2015, with basic smart meter functionalitySingapore is expected to begin rollout of AMI around 2015, with basic smart meter functionality
Some of the key drivers for AMI in Asia Pacific include regulatory mandates, choice for customers, technology
upgrades, energy management and a move towards smart grids architecture
Some of the key drivers for AMI in Asia Pacific include regulatory mandates, choice for customers, technology
upgrades, energy management and a move towards smart grids architecture
Major market restraints include financing issues, interoperability and lack of standards, limited experience &
reference instatallation s for the technology, and justifying the cost-benefit of AMI roll out
Major market restraints include financing issues, interoperability and lack of standards, limited experience &
reference instatallation s for the technology, and justifying the cost-benefit of AMI roll out
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For Additional Information
Donna Jeremiah
Corporate Communications
Asia Pacific
+603 6204 5832
Mi Ok Lee
Corporate Communications
Asia Pacific - Korea
+82 2 6710 2033
29
Subbu Bettadapura
Associate Director
Asia Pacific
Energy & Power
+603 6204 5800
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