1 Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing
November 2012 additional analysis by:
main bank, supermarket, mobile network, daily newspaper
© Amárach Research
2 Economic Recovery Index
The Ides of November?
What is it about November? We’ve been
tracking the emotional wellbeing of the nation
since April 2009, and every November we see
the gap between positive and negative
emotions closing (see slide 15).
It may be the weather and the shorter days, but
if you are in marketing then it does beg the
question: will your brand communications cut
through the seasonal gloom?
We hope so – and we hope you find this
month’s issue of our Economic Recovery Index
helpful as you plan for 2013.
We’ve even broken out the results by the
customers of main banks, supermarkets,
mobile networks and daily newspapers – which
might help you plan your ‘emotional strategy’ in
the months ahead.
3 Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out three years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
Our tracking research has shown the
remarkable emotional strength of the Irish
people, who have consistently reported
‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most
frequently experienced emotions.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009 to
November 2012.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 11th to 17th November 2012 inclusive.
4 Economic Recovery Index
A Matter of Measurement
Oct’12: 48% Nov’12: 47%
Oct’12: 28% Nov’12: 30%
Oct’12: 21% Nov’12: 20%
Oct’12: 3% Nov’12: 3%
Oct’12: 0% Nov’12: 0%
Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us
which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)
Our ERI Index weakened slightly in November 2012 on the previous month:
5 Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
The ERI has continued to weaken steadily since July – though November’s index is still up
on November 2011:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, November 2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Apr'09
Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr'10
May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr'11
May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12
Feb Mar Apr'12
May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov
6 Economic Recovery Index
Recovery Outlook 1
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:
Source: Amárach Research, November 2012
34%41%44% 42%43%
46%48%
41%43%
52%
41% 42%43% 42%42%
42%39%
31%26%18%
23%26%24%25%24%
28%23%
26%24%26%26%23%22%21%
26%30%31%
25%25%27%27%24%26%27%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r'12
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly
57%59%65%
58%60%62%55%
51%51%
61%
56% 54%52% 53%54%
55%
50%
46% 44%33%
41%48%
44%48%47%
53%47%48%48%47%49%
42%39%
45%44%50%51%
47%43%45%47%46%48%
44%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r'12
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly
7 Economic Recovery Index
Recovery Outlook 2
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:
Source: Amárach Research, November 2012
48%48%51% 47%48%48%46%
45%45%50%
47%43%
47%44%
45%
47%46%
41% 41%32%34%39%37%36%
39%40%34%
39%34%
38%38%34%33%
37%41%40%42%
38%36%38%39%35%
38%34%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r'12
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession:
% agree strongly/slightly
59%62%61% 60%61%60%56%52%
56%55%
53% 55%53%51%50%
55%54%
53% 52%45%45%49%
45%47%48%50%44%
49%46%
49%45%45%43%
46%49%48%50%
45%45%43%46%
42%44%43%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r'12
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly
8 Economic Recovery Index
Heads Down: 1
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”
Source: Amárach Research, November 2012
November 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1005 496 508 170 224 188 157 266 480 525
Strongly Agree 8% 9% 7% 13% 6% 4% 7% 10% 11% 6%
Slightly Agree 26% 24% 28% 27% 23% 24% 26% 30% 30% 23%
Neither/Nor 14% 14% 14% 15% 16% 12% 9% 16% 15% 13%
Slightly Disagree 24% 27% 20% 21% 24% 24% 26% 23% 21% 26%
Strongly Disagree 25% 23% 28% 21% 27% 31% 30% 20% 22% 28%
9 Economic Recovery Index
Heads Down: 2
% of Irish adults – by main bank, supermarket, mobile network and daily newspaper –
who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”
Source: Amárach Research, November 2012
November 2012 Total AIB BOI PTSB Tesco Dunne
Stores Aldi O2
Voda
fone Meteor
Irish
Times
Irish
Indo
Irish
Daily
Weighted Sample 1005 338 298 154 357 159 183 245 369 202 196 198 78
Strongly Agree 8% 9% 8% 7% 10% 7% 5% 7% 8% 9% 9% 11% 6%
Slightly Agree 26% 28% 25% 27% 27% 28% 25% 23% 25% 27% 37% 27% 31%
Neither/Nor 14% 13% 15% 14% 16% 12% 11% 16% 14% 13% 12% 14% 13%
Slightly Disagree 24% 22% 27% 24% 23% 26% 24% 27% 24% 24% 26% 25% 22%
Strongly Disagree 25% 26% 22% 26% 22% 23% 32% 26% 26% 26% 14% 23% 26%
10 Economic Recovery Index
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement: November 2010, 2011, 2012 & October 2012
11% 15% 16% 16%
Nov'10 Nov'11 Oct'12 Nov'12
I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago
53% 59% 62% 61%
Nov'10 Nov'11 Oct'12 Nov'12
Now is a good time to buy a house for those
who want to
24% 26% 25% 25%
Nov'10 Nov'11 Oct'12 Nov'12
I am saving a lot more than before because of the
recession
20% 23% 25% 22%
Nov'10 Nov'11 Oct'12 Nov'12
I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I
need to
50% 55% 56% 53%
Nov'10 Nov'11 Oct'12 Nov'12
Paying off debts is my main financial priority
Impact on:
•Spending
•Saving
•Debt
•Borrowing
Financial Sentiment Indicators
Source: Amárach Research, November 2012
11 Economic Recovery Index
Spendthrift: 1
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago”
Source: Amárach Research, November 2012
November 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1005 496 508 170 224 188 157 266 480 525
Strongly Agree 3% 4% 2% 2% 3% 2% 4% 4% 5% 1%
Slightly Agree 13% 13% 13% 20% 13% 11% 11% 11% 11% 14%
Neither/Nor 17% 19% 15% 20% 15% 15% 15% 19% 18% 17%
Slightly Disagree 26% 26% 25% 20% 26% 27% 24% 29% 27% 24%
Strongly Disagree 40% 36% 43% 34% 41% 44% 46% 36% 37% 43%
12 Economic Recovery Index
Spendthrift: 2
% of Irish adults – by main bank, supermarket, mobile network and daily newspaper –
who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago”
Source: Amárach Research, November 2012
November 2012 Total AIB BOI PTSB Tesco Dunne
Stores Aldi O2
Voda
fone Meteor
Irish
Time
s
Irish
Indo
Irish
Daily
Weighted Sample 1005 338 298 154 357 159 183 245 369 202 196 198 78
Strongly Agree 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 2% 2% 3% 3% 5% 4% 4%
Slightly Agree 13% 13% 11% 11% 16% 11% 9% 13% 11% 12% 13% 13% 18%
Neither/Nor 17% 16% 18% 17% 18% 16% 16% 15% 15% 19% 24% 15% 12%
Slightly Disagree 26% 27% 22% 30% 25% 25% 27% 28% 26% 26% 26% 27% 23%
Strongly Disagree 40% 39% 44% 39% 36% 42% 45% 42% 43% 39% 30% 40% 39%
13 Economic Recovery Index
Rainy Day: 1
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession”
Source: Amárach Research, November 2012
November 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1005 496 508 170 224 188 157 266 480 525
Strongly Agree 9% 8% 9% 19% 8% 7% 7% 5% 10% 7%
Slightly Agree 16% 16% 16% 21% 22% 15% 10% 13% 18% 14%
Neither/Nor 19% 19% 19% 20% 16% 18% 17% 23% 21% 18%
Slightly Disagree 22% 21% 23% 20% 23% 21% 19% 25% 22% 22%
Strongly Disagree 32% 33% 31% 15% 28% 39% 46% 32% 26% 37%
14 Economic Recovery Index
Rainy Day: 2
% of Irish adults – by main bank, supermarket, mobile network and daily newspaper –
who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession”
Source: Amárach Research, November 2012
November 2012 Total AIB BOI PTSB Tesco Dunne
Stores Aldi O2
Voda
fone Meteor
Irish
Time
s
Irish
Indo
Irish
Daily
Weighted Sample 1005 338 298 154 357 159 183 245 369 202 196 198 78
Strongly Agree 9% 9% 9% 8% 10% 8% 7% 8% 7% 10% 11% 11% 8%
Slightly Agree 16% 17% 15% 18% 16% 17% 13% 14% 15% 17% 21% 19% 17%
Neither/Nor 19% 19% 19% 17% 20% 20% 19% 24% 17% 21% 23% 20% 16%
Slightly Disagree 22% 22% 23% 24% 22% 18% 23% 18% 24% 22% 23% 21% 21%
Strongly Disagree 32% 31% 31% 32% 30% 33% 37% 33% 34% 27% 21% 25% 35%
15 Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2012
Source: Amárach Research, November 2012
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr
'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
t
Oct
Nov
De
c
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
'10
May
June
July
Aug
Sep
t
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
'11
May
June
July
Aug
Sep
t
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr'12
May
June
July
Aug
Sep
t
Oct
Nov
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
16 Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2012
Source: Amárach Research, November 2012
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Ap
r '0
9
Ma
y
Ju
n
Ju
l
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n
Feb
Ma
r
Ap
r '1
0
Ma
y
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n
Feb
Ma
r
Ap
r '1
1
Ma
y
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n
Feb
Ma
r
Ap
r'1
2
Ma
y
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
17 Economic Recovery Index
Changing Moods: 1
Source: Amárach Research, November 2012
November 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1005 496 508 170 224 188 157 266 480 525
Enjoyment 53% 52% 53% 52% 45% 46% 52% 64% 57% 49%
Happiness 49% 44% 54% 59% 44% 42% 42% 56% 52% 47%
Stress 46% 42% 50% 62% 56% 49% 44% 26% 47% 45%
Worry 43% 41% 45% 47% 54% 36% 48% 32% 44% 41%
Anxiety 31% 29% 33% 38% 32% 30% 36% 24% 34% 29%
Boredom 26% 28% 25% 47% 27% 24% 25% 15% 23% 29%
Physical Pain 25% 27% 24% 27% 24% 20% 26% 29% 24% 27%
Sadness 21% 20% 22% 28% 21% 12% 20% 23% 21% 21%
Anger 18% 19% 17% 21% 22% 18% 17% 13% 19% 17%
Fear 12% 11% 13% 14% 16% 11% 14% 7% 13% 12%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: November 2012
18 Economic Recovery Index
Changing Moods: 2
% of Irish adults – by main bank, supermarket, mobile network and daily newspaper:
did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? Yes: November 2012
Source: Amárach Research, November 2012
November
2012 Total AIB BOI PTSB Tesco
Dunne
Stores Aldi O2
Voda
fone Meteor
Irish
Times
Irish
Indo
Irish
Daily
Weighted Sample 1005 338 298 154 357 159 183 245 369 202 196 198 78
Enjoyment 49% 50% 62% 49% 53% 54% 51% 56% 50% 56% 54% 59% 49%
Happiness 48% 49% 48% 47% 54% 53% 49% 49% 53% 52% 51% 42% 48%
Stress 45% 49% 44% 44% 47% 50% 42% 44% 54% 37% 45% 43% 45%
Worry 41% 44% 43% 44% 40% 45% 39% 43% 47% 41% 43% 43% 41%
Anxiety 33% 29% 28% 33% 35% 29% 28% 32% 35% 32% 32% 30% 33%
Boredom 28% 24% 23% 28% 25% 26% 25% 24% 29% 19% 21% 31% 28%
Physical Pain 24% 24% 24% 25% 16% 29% 24% 24% 25% 23% 24% 33% 24%
Sadness 22% 25% 14% 23% 20% 22% 22% 20% 22% 20% 20% 22% 22%
Anger 20% 19% 13% 18% 12% 18% 16% 17% 19% 18% 16% 15% 20%
Fear 14% 11% 10% 12% 12% 11% 12% 11% 13% 12% 12% 14% 14%
Drivers & Drinking
About Amárach
Amárach Research is an independent market
research agency, providing a full range of
research services to our Irish and international
clients. Amárach specialises in turning
information into insight; and insight into foresight.
Amárach’s experienced team of 30 directors and
executives manage online, face-to-face and cati
surveys (through our call centre); as well as
qualitative research including focus groups, in-
depths and ethnographic studies. We also
delivers a world class field-only service to
universities and international agencies.
Over nearly 25 years, Amárach has pioneered
innovative research techniques and reported on
Irish social, lifestyle and tech trends since the
1980s. Amárach invests heavily in understanding
current Irish consumer and business trends, and
shares numerous, free reports and presentations
via our blog and slideshare sites, linked via our
main website: www.amarach.com
Trends Report
Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to
bounce forward to success:
Mark Nolan Managing Director
or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive
or Gerard O’Neill Chairman
for a confidential discussion about your needs and to
explore how we can help you succeed through world
class market research.
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
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