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Solar CSP Developers…Friends or Foes
Reese TisdaleSenior Analyst
+1 617 551 [email protected]
CSP Today 2008San Francisco, California
29 January 2008
ID# RPG 875-080129
Renewable Power Generation Advisory
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Page 2Renewable Power Generation Advisory – RPG 875-080129
OverviewAgenda
Outlook
Market Drivers
Overview
Competitive Strategies
Current Market Status
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Page 3Renewable Power Generation Advisory – RPG 875-080129
Market DriversFactors Driving Renewable Energy Investments
Compliance• Carbon constraints (Kyoto Protocol, RGGI, etc.) • Renewable Energy Standards (ROCs)
• Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)
Green image • Customer acquisition and retention; shareholders
Profitability• Feed-in tariffs and tax credits providing modest to strong returns on
investments
Energy Security • Political will to reduce price volatility
Build-up uniquecompetencies
• Building renewables-focused business units with international scope
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Page 4Renewable Power Generation Advisory – RPG 875-080129
Market DriversFactors Driving Renewable Energy Investments
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
U.S. Natural Gas WellheadPrice Dollars per ThousandCubic Feet
SEGS I
SEGS II
SEGS III
SEGS IV
SEGS V
SEGS VI
SEGS IX
NevadaSolar One
SEGS VIII
Initial Build-out
Period of Dormancy
Second Launch
Energy CrisisSEGS VII
Saguaro
PS10
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Page 5Renewable Power Generation Advisory – RPG 875-080129
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
I b e r d r o l a
F P L E N
E L
A c c i o n a E D
F
B a b c
o c k B
r o w n
S c o t t i s h P o
w e r
E n d e s a E D
P E . O N
S u e z
C h e v r o n
M i d A m
e r i c a
n D O
N G R W E
C F E
V a t t e
n f a l l
W h e
e l a b r
a t o r
C a l p i
n e E u
r u s
M W
SHP
Solar CSP
WTE
Co-firing
Landfill gasBiogas
Biomass
Geothermal
Wind
Source: Utilities, Developers, Emerging Energy Research
• 12 of the top 20 companies areEuropean-based
• European companies are nowinvesting in US assets
• Utilities and IPPS are lookingbeyond wind to bolsterportfolios
Analysis
Current Market StatusRenewable Power Generation
European utilities and IPPs are taking leadership roles in the renewables sector and increasing role in solar CSP
Top 20 Renewable Players
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Page 6Renewable Power Generation Advisory – RPG 875-080129
Current Market StatusConcentrating Solar Power Today
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Fortress
Investment Group
FPL Energy
Acciona Solar
Sunray Energy
Abengoa Solar
Net MW Ownership
MW Ownership, as of YE2006
MW Additions, 2007
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Fortress Investment Group
FPL Energy
Abengoa Solar
Acciona Solar
Iberdrola
ACS Cobra
Sunray Energy
Solar Millennium
Net MW Ownership
MW Ownership, as of YE2007
MW Additions, 2008 (est.)
Solar CSP Industry will add 170 MW in 2008, all in Europe. No installations are expected in the US until at least 2010
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Page 7Renewable Power Generation Advisory – RPG 875-080129
• Abengoa’s 11 MW central receiver system is the firstlarge scale commercial facility to come online in 17 years
• Acciona’s 64 MW Nevada Solar One plant is the first parabolictrough plant to come online since 1991
• No current facilities have additional storage capabilities
• Solar Millennium has announced 1,000 MW of parabolictrough planned for Inner Mongolia by 2020
• 3,000 MW of Fresnel is planned by Solar Power Group forNorth Africa with the Libyan Center for Solar Research
Current Installed CSP Technology Announced CSP Facilities by Technology
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TBD
Solar ChimneyParabolic Trough
Linear Fresnel
ISCC
Dish Engine
Central Receiver
Central Receiver11 MW
Parabolic Trough420 MW
Total:431 MW
Current Market StatusConcentrating Solar Power by Technology
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Page 8Renewable Power Generation Advisory – RPG 875-080129
Competitive StrategiesSolar CSP Developer Positioning
Utilities & IPPs• Renewable ownership leaders
• Adding CSP projects to wind portfolios
Technology Promoters• Independent technology providers
• Leveraging specialized technology capabilities
Renewable ProjectDevelopers
• Opportunistic players playing off promoters and Utility/IPPs
• Locking up optimal sites for investment
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Page 10Renewable Power Generation Advisory – RPG 875-080129
Competitive StrategiesSolar CSP Value Chain
ProjectOwnership
T
e c h n o l o g y P r o m
o t e r s GE Finance, EDP,
Solar Millennium, ACS
OperationEPCProjectDevelopment
ACS Cobra, SenerMAN Ferrostaal
Sacyr VallehermosoURS Corporation
TechnologyIntegrator
I P P s & U t i l i t i e s
Solel
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Page 11Renewable Power Generation Advisory – RPG 875-080129
Competitive StrategiesTechnology Promoter Differentiation
SES
Solar Millennium
AusraSolel
Solar Power Group
BrightSource Energy
Sener
Novatec Biosol
Abengoa Solar
Technology Diversification
L o c a l
G l o b a l
Abengoa stands alone in technology
diversification with experience inparabolic trough, central receiver, anddish engine experience.Geographically focused on Spain,North Africa, and the US
Split evenly between parabolic troughplayers and linear Fresnel playersapplying global development strategybeyond one country
Focused on one country and one
technology during demonstration stagebefore launching globally
Ener-T Global
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Page 12Renewable Power Generation Advisory – RPG 875-080129
Competitive StrategiesWind Developers Enter CSP Sector
1 4 2
2 5 0
4,840
Iberdrola
5,711
FPL Energy
6 0 0
6 5
2 1 5
2,791
Acciona
2 0 0
1,194
EDP
1 5 0
2,003
Endesa
5 6
809
Enel
Wind Capacity(MW)
Solar CSPInstalled (MW)
Solar CSPPlanned (MW)
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Page 13Renewable Power Generation Advisory – RPG 875-080129
OutlookConclusions
• Fossil fuel volatility and climate change issues will bolster renewable market overcoming decade, fostering solar CSP buildout
• The Spanish will be slow and steady over the next decade; US market growth willtake place closer to 2015
• Parabolic trough technology will continue dominant role until emergingtechnologies prove viable. Thermal storage will prove critical over long term.
• The industry will begin to consolidate over the next five years with leading IPPs
and utilities acquiring assets
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Page 14Renewable Power Generation Advisory – RPG 875-080129
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© 2007 EMERGING ENERGY RESEARCH, LLC. All rights reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is strictly forbidden. The
information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it.