8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
1/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Page 1
Global Market Forecast 2011 - 2030
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
2/48
Global Market Forecast2011 - 2030
Delivering the Future
September 2011
Presented byJohn Leahy
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
3/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
GMF 2011 Highlights
Page 3
World fleet forecast 2010 2030 % change
Market value of $3.5 trillion
RPK (trillion) 4.8 12.3 157%
Passenger aircraft fleet 15,000 31,420 109%
New passenger aircraft deliveries - 26,920 -
Dedicated freighters 1,600 3,450 +116%
New freighter aircraft deliveries - 930 -
Total new aircraft deliveries 27,850
GMF 2011 key numbers and 20-year change
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
4/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
20-year demand for almost 27,900 new passenger andfreight aircraft
20-year new deliveries of passenger and freight aircraft
Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)
1,780 very large aircraft
Market value of $3.5 trillion
6,910 twin-aisle aircraft
19,170 single-aisle aircraft
Page 4
Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats)
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
5/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
World economic forecast accuracy
World real GDP year-over-year quarterly evolution (%)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Strong growthsince 2004
Slowdown Deep crisis Recovery Sustained growth
Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus
2012
Page 5
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
6/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Real & forecast GDP
Traffic ASKs
Source: IHS Global Insight (August 2011 data), OAG (ASKs data), Airbus
GDP and passenger traffic development
2007
August 11Passengertraffic up
6.2%
World real GDP and passenger traffic (year-over-year)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Page 6
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
7/48 AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: IHS Global Insight (August 2011), Airbus
A two-speed world
History Forecast
Real GDP growth (%)
Emergingeconomies*
Mature
economies
* 54 emerging economies
Page 7
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
8/48 AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Source: OAG, Airbus
All regions are showing positive growth
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N
United States
Western Europe
Emerging Economies
2007
Trafficup
2.1%5.2%
Trafficup
10.2%
Passenger traffic (monthly ASKs year-over-year)
2008 2009 2010 2011
Emerging economies are leading the way
Page 8
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
9/48 AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Page 9
Delivery comparison over the last decade
Largest aircraft manufacturer 8 out of last 10 years
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Airbus Boeing
Annual deliveries
Page 9
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
10/48 AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Airbus order backlog
4,233 aircraft in backlog, worth $570 billion
North America479 (11%)
LatinAmerica254 (6%)
Middle East418 (10%)
Asia/ Pacific1572 (37%)Lessors
819 (19%)
Corporate Jet,Private, Military
45 (1%)
Africa83 (2%)
Europe360 (9%)
Undisclosed 27 (1%)
Page 10
CIS176 (4%)
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
11/48 AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Page 11
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Since 2000, air travel has grown 45%, the growth infuel demand relatively flat.
Evolution of RPKs and jet fuel demand(Base 100 in 2000)
Traffic growth
Jet fuel demand
Traffic
+45%
Fuel
+3%
Jet fuel demand data: CERA (millions of barrels of jet fuel)
Source: ICAO, CERA, Airbus
Page 11
S EIA IHS Gl b l I i h (A 2011) Ai b
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
12/48 AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Average annual oil prices have rebounded to 2008values
Source: EIA, IHS Global Insight (August 2011), Airbus
Page 12
Average annual WTI oil price (US$ per bbl)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
History Forecast
Oil price (Current US$)
Average Annual
PricePer Barrel
>$120
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
13/48 AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
A320neo generates significant fuel burn savings
A320neonew environmental option
15% fuel burn saving
Equivalent to 1,000 cars driving 12,000 miles each
3,600t less CO2 emissions
Equivalent to CO2 absorbed by 240,000 maturetrees in a year
Page 13
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
14/48 AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks
Source: ICAO, Airbus * since 2000
Gulf CrisisOil Crisis
World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions)AsianCrisis
WTCAttackOil Crisis SARS
FinancialCrisis
+45%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Page 14
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
15/48 AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Main drivers for future growth
Replacement of aircraft in service in mature markets
Dynamic growth in emerging markets population and economics
Increasing urbanisation driving wealth and traffic growth
Strong continued growth in North American and European markets
Expanding global middle class, especially in Asia
Continued growth of LCCs
Market liberalisation more to come
Page 15
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
16/48 AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000
Trips* per capita - 2010
2010 real GDP per capita
World average
Emerging economies drive strong travel growth
China
India
Brazil
Russia
* Passengers originating from respective country Note: GDP in US$2005
USA
FranceGermany
UKChina 2030
India 2030
Page 16
India:4x 2030vs. 2010
China:3x 2030vs. 2010
Growth inPropensity to
Travel
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
17/48 AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
1970 1990 2010 2030
Traffic in and between more mature markets willnearly double between 2010 and 2030
Traffic within or including emerging economies
Traffic within & between developed economies
76% 63% 43%30%24%
37%
70%
Market share on total traffic, emerging vs. mature traffic flows
RPK (trillion)
Page 17
57%
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
18/48 AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
Asia-Pacific
Europe
North America
Middle East
Latin America
CIS
Africa
Asia-Pacific to lead in world traffic by 2030
2010 traffic 2010-2030 traffic 28%
27%
27%
7%
5%
3%
3%
20-yearworld annualtraffic growth
4.8%
5.7%
4.0%
3.3%
7.4%
6.1%
4.9%
5.6%
World Traffic by airline domicile (RPK billions)% of 2010
world RPK
20-year
growth
Page 18
33%
23%
20%
11%
6%
4%
3%
% of 2030
world RPK
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
19/48 AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Long-haul traffic will grow faster than short-haul
Evolution of long-haul and short-haul traffic, 2010 set to 100% [passengers]
* Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic
Page 19
0%
100%
200%
300%
Short-haul traffic Long-haul traffic
2010 2010
20302030
x 2.4
x 2.8
Source: IATA PaxIS, OAG. Airbus
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
20/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
2010 cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers*
39 cities in the world handle more than10,000 long haul passengers per day,
Page 20
* Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic
,
Source: IATA PaxIS, OAG. Airbus
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
21/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
2030 cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers*
and in 20 years, this will become nearly 90 cities
Page 21
* Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic
,
* - Source: IATA Carrier Tracker November 2007 to June 2011
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
22/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Four years of success four years of full flights25th October 2011 marks the fourth anniversary of the first commercial flight
The Singapore Airlines A380 has proven exceptionally popular
with customers, with strong loads on all routes it serves.System-wide, more than 5 million customers have flown on
Singapore Airlines' A380s [...] on more than 13,000 flights.
SIA News Release1st July 2011
= 81%Average Load Factor
76.5%
IATA Industry average l.f.*
77.9%
SIA average l.f.*
Source: IATA Carrier Tracker November 2007 to June 2011
Page 22
Source: ICAO, Airbus
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
23/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Air travel remains a growth market
World annual traffic(RPKs - trillions)
20-yearworld annualtraffic growth
4.8%
Page 23
ICAOtotal traffic
AirbusGMF 2011
Air traffichas doubled
every 15 years
Air trafficwill double
in the next15 years
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
24/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
New aircraft demand will average at ~1,400 per year
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
24,000
Single-aisle & Small jetfreighters Small-twin aisle &Regional freighters Intermediate twin-aisle &Long range freighters Large aircraft & Largefreighters
GMF 2010
GMF 2011
69% 17% 8% 6%% units
40% 27% 16% 17%% value
17,870
4,330
1,910 1,740
20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft
4,790
2,120 1,780
19,170
Page 24
Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats) and jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
24,000
Single-aisle & Small jetfreighters Small-twin aisle &Regional freighters Intermediate twin-aisle &Long range freighters Large aircraft & Largefreighters
GMF 2010
GMF 2011
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
25/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Pending demand for aircraft replacement in NorthAmerica
Asia
Europe
North America
Latin America
Africa
Middle East
WorldModern
Out ofProduction
79%
70%
75%
72%
56%
67%
59%
2010 Fleet
Today,~ 4500 out of
productionaircraft to bereplaced bymore eco-
efficient model
Page 25
Source: CASE, fleet in service as of end of year
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
26/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Strong increase in average seat capacity of aircraft
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
2000 2010 2026**
Evolution of average seat capacity of single-aisle and twin-aisle aircraft on order and future fleet in service*
Twin-aisle aircraft:
+8%
Single-aisle aircraft:
+10%
2010 vs. 2000
Backlog
* Passenger aircraft 100 seats** Estimated 2026 backlog (2026 2030 new aircraft deliveries)
Twin-aisle aircraft:
+17%
Single-aisle aircraft:
+15%
2026 vs. 2000
Backlog
Page 26
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
27/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
20-year demand for almost 27,900 new passenger andfreight aircraft
20-year new deliveries of passenger and freight aircraft
Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)
1,780 very large aircraft
Market value of $3.5 trillion
6,910 twin-aisle aircraft
19,170 single-aisle aircraft
Page 27
Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats)
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
28/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Page 28
A320neo market potential
Open demand for 14,800 aircraft by 2030
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Single-aisle aircraft in-service
Currently in-service
Backlog
Open Demand
14,800aircraft
4,400aircraft
Page 28
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
29/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Summary
A market for more than 26,900 new passenger aircraft and over 900 newfreighter aircraft
The A320neo Family will be addressing a market of about 19,000 single-aislepassenger aircraft, out of which 15,000 still to be sold.
The twin-aisle passenger aircraft market will account for more than 6,900new aircraft deliveries.
Nearly 1,800 very large aircraft to meet demand and alleviate congestion,whilst offering lower cost per seat.
Strong A380 demand driven by the growth from 39 aviation mega-cities to 87in 20 years.
Page 29
September 2011
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
30/48
Global Market Forecast2011 - 2030
Presented byChris Emerson
Delivering the Future
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
31/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
The Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF)
Page 31
161 regional passenger flows Several models developed for each flow with the best model selected
Econometric forecasts complemented by market research and judgement
Detailed study of network evolution including new routes, markets andderegulation hot spots
Model the impact of evolving airline models
Fleet build-ups covering 869 passenger airlines
Marketresearch
Deregulation /liberalisation
Competition
Low costpenetration
Consumer / travelsurveys
Marketsegmentation
Regional / low cost/ charterStart-up / Network
IntegratorsTraffic flowsDomestic /International
TrafficForecast
Economics &Econometrics
Tourism
Fuel priceYieldsTrade / Value ofgoods
Networkdevelopment
Aircraft economicsAirline operationeconomics
Origin-destinationdemand
DemographicsGeopoliticsNetwork evolution
o The Global Market Forecast (GMF) is a 20 year aircraft
demand and passenger traffic forecast
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
32/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Traffic is broken down from macro flows down to citypairs and routings
GLOBAL FORECAST LOCAL ESTIMATES
Europe
Asia
~161distinct flows
France
Singapore
~10,000country pairs
SIN
TLSToulouse
Singapore
~200,000Origin-Destination city pairs
Page 32
A unique process to match the global vision with the local perspective.
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
33/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Five key industry drivers examined
Economic andPopulationGrowth
Trade EmergingMarkets
AgingPopulations
Ticket Price Comfort Origin andDestination
Connectivity Growing TrafficFlows
Global Cities Hubs New Routes Deregulation Route Evolution
Fuel Range Fleet Mix/Capacity
Business Models Yields
Environment
Seats, Speed andUtilization
Frequency and Range and FleetMix
Replacement Environment
Economicsand
Demographics
Passengersand Traffic
NetworkingAirline
Operations
Aircraft andAircraftDemand
Page 33
GrowingMiddle Class
Urbanization
Growing TrafficFlows
Origin andDestination
Route Evolution
New Routes
Load Factor
Frequency Fleet Mix/Capacity
Yields
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
34/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Gulf CrisisOil Crisis
Asian
Crisis
WTC
AttackOil Crisis
The Global Market Forecast is a long-term forecastwhich accounts for potential crises
SARS
GMF 1999
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
35/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
2009 projections have mapped closely with reality
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Strong growth
since 2004Slowdown Deep crisis Recovery Sustained growth
2012
World real GDP year-over-year quarterly evolution (%)
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Sep. 2011 forecast
Actual until Sep. 2011
Sep. 2009 forecast
Actual until Sep. 2009-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Sep. 2011 forecast
Actual until Sep. 2011
Sep. 2009 forecast
Actual until Sep. 2009-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Sep. 2011 forecast
Actual until Sep. 2011
Sep. 2009 forecast
Actual until Sep. 2009-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Sep. 2011 forecast
Actual until Sep. 2011
Sep. 2009 forecast
Actual until Sep. 2009-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Sep. 2011 forecast
Actual until Sep. 2011
Sep. 2009 forecast
Actual until Sep. 2009
The depth of this crisis has resulted in a slow but continual recovery
Page 35
Source: BEA, Airbus
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
36/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Economic crisis andthe beginning of recovery
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Increase in savings for households and businesseswhile budget surplus has declined heavily
Page 36
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Households Business Government
United States net savings (% of GDP)
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
The increase in business and household savings demonstrate the foundations forrecovery
Source: ICAO, IATA (2010 estimation), Airbus
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
37/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Passenger load factor at record level
Page 37
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
200950%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
World passenger aircraft load factor (%)
Environmental efficiency through airline productivity
Source: OAG, Ascend, Airbus
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
38/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
The industry is again entering into a period of undercapacity
Number of aircraft in under/excess capacity
Under capacity(compared with pre-Sep2001 (2008) maximum
productivity level)
Excess capacity(compared with pre-Sep2001 (2008) maximum
productivity level)
2001 2005200420032002
2008 2012201120102009
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N
?
Page 38
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
39/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Stabilization of yields over the last ten years
Page 39
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Sources:North America: ATAAsia Pacific: AAPA for data until 2009 / For 2010, Q1 2010, Q2 2010: annual & interim reports (weighted average yield by RPK of the 10 major airlines)Europe: AEA for data until 2009 / For 2010, Q1 2010, Q2 2010: annual & interim reports (weighted average yield by RPK of the 4 major airlines)
US Cents/RPK
Europe
Asia/Pacific
North America
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Source: ICAO/IATA (June 2011), Airbus
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
40/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Airlines expected to remain profitable in 2011
5.5%
-1.8%
1.2%
4.7%
2.9%4.0%
0.1%
-2.2%
2.0%1.1%
2.9%
-4.7%
-1.8%
10.9%
2.3%
North America
Europe
Asia-Pacific
Airline industry EBIT margins (% of revenues)
Page 40
Fuel prices will continue to have an effect on the future profitability of airlines
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Gl b l iddl l d i 4 9 billi
Source: Kharas and Gertz, Airbus
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
41/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Global middle class expected to rise to 4.9 billionpeople by 2030
* Households with daily expenditures between $10 and $100 per person (at PPP)
Page 41
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2010 2020 2030
Sub Sahara Africa
Middle East &North Africa
Latin America
North America
Asia-Pacific
Europe
Millions of people
1,845
3,249
4,884
664 703 680
525
1,740
3,228
338
333
322
181
251
313
105
165
234107
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2010 2020 2030
Sub Sahara Africa
Middle East &North Africa
Latin America
North America
Asia-Pacific
Europe664 703 680
525
1,740
3,228
338
333
322
181
251
313
105
165
234
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2010 2020 2030
Sub Sahara Africa
Middle East &North Africa
Latin America
North America
Asia-Pacific
Europe664 703 680
525
1,740
3,228
338
333
322
181
251
313
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2010 2020 2030
Sub Sahara Africa
Middle East &North Africa
Latin America
North America
Asia-Pacific
Europe664 703 680
525
1,740
3,228
338
333
322
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2010 2020 2030
Sub Sahara Africa
Middle East &North Africa
Latin America
North America
Asia-Pacific
Europe664 703 680
525
1,740
3,228
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2010 2020 2030
Sub Sahara Africa
Middle East &North Africa
Latin America
North America
Asia-Pacific
Europe664 703 6800
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2010 2020 2030
Sub Sahara Africa
Middle East &North Africa
Latin America
North America
Asia-Pacific
Europe
66% of the global middle class will be in Asia-Pacific in 2030
U b i i i f h i d i f iSource: Global Insight, UN Population division
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
42/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Page 42
Urbanisation is one of the main drivers of economicgrowth
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
2010 real GDP per capita ($US)
% Urban population
Switzerland
Luxembourg
Norway
Ireland
Trinidad
andTobago
Aruba
Anguilla
Argentina
BrazilRussiaIndiaChina
USA
UK
France
Germany
Japan
Bermuda
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
43/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Long-haul traffic will grow twice as fast as the network
Traffic
x 2.8
Network
x 1.4
Evolution of long-haul traffic and route network, 2010 set to 100% [passengers and number of city-pairs]
* Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm
Traffic will more than double airport infrastructure will not: routes will get bigger
Page 43
0%
100%
200%
300%
2010 2030
L h l t ffi ill i hi hl t t d th
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
44/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Long-haul traffic will remain highly concentrated on theAviation Megacities
0
100
200
300
400
500
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030
History Forecast
Aviation Megacity
Aviation Megacity
Aviation Megacity
Secondary city
Secondary city
Secondary city
RPK (billion)
Long-haul traffic per route category*
Page 44
*- Long haul traffic: f light distance >2,000nmBased on 2010s 39 Aviation Megacities
0
100
200
300
400
500
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 20300
100
200
300
400
500
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 20300
100
200
300
400
500
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030
A i ti iti th l b ill d i f t
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
45/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Aviation megacities across the globe will drive futureVLA demand
Page 45
2PEK
4LHR
9PVG
11NRT
3HKG
14FRA5
JFK
7SIN
6CDG
1
DXB10LAX
8
DEL
12BKK
16
SYD
19SFO
20ICN
13BOM
18GRU
15
SHA17
CAN
2030 top 20 airports in number of VLAs
2030: 87 Aviation megacities
D ti US till th l t fl i 2030 f ll d b
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
46/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
0 500 1000 1500Domestic United States
Domestic PRC
Intra Western Europe
United States - Western Europe
Domestic India
Middle East - Western Europe
Asia - Western Europe
South America - Western Europe
Asia - PRC
Intra Asia
PRC - Western Europe
Central Europe - Western Europe
Indian Sub - Middle East
Domestic Brazil
Domestic Asia
North Africa - Western Europe
Middle East - United States
Asia - Middle East
PRC - United States
Japan - United States
Domestic US still the largest flow in 2030, followed bydomestic China and Intra Western Europe
20-year
growth2.4%
7.2%
3.2%
3.9%
9.8%
5.7%
4.3%
5.1%
6.8%
6.4%
6.2%
5.7%
6.2%
6.6%
5.6%
4.6%
7.1%
5.5%
6.6%
3.8%
% of 2010
World RPK17.8%
6.0%
10.3%
6.4%
1.0%
1.9%
2.4%
2.1%
1.5%
1.6%
1.5%
1.6%
1.4%
1.3%
1.5%
1.5%
0.9%
1.2%
1.0%
1.7%
0 500 1000 1500Domestic United States
Domestic PRC
Intra Western Europe
United States - Western Europe
Domestic India
Middle East - Western Europe
Asia - Western Europe
South America - Western Europe
Asia - PRC
Intra Asia
PRC - Western Europe
Central Europe - Western Europe
Indian Sub - Middle East
Domestic Brazil
Domestic Asia
North Africa - Western Europe
Middle East - United States
Asia - Middle East
PRC - United States
Japan - United States
2010 traffic 2011-2030 growth
RPKs (billions)
Page 46
% of 2030
World RPK11.1%
9.3%
7.5%
5.4%
2.6%
2.3%
2.2%
2.2%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
Though domestic PRC will be 34% larger than domestic USA today
20 i ft d d f 26 900 i ft
Airbus Market Research & Forecasts
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
47/48
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Stay in service
Recycled
Replaced
Growth
20-year passenger aircraft demand for 26,900 aircraftworth US$ 3.3 trillion
Page 47
Fleet size
1,063
3,440
10,499
16,422
31,424
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Beginning 2011 2030
15,002Newaircraft
26,921
Passenger aircraft 100 seats (excluding freighters)
+ 3.8 % per annum
8/3/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast
48/48
Recap and Conclusions
4.8%
Traffic
Growth
2010-2030
0 2000
Intra Asia
Asia - PRC
S. America - W. Europe
Asia - W. EuropeM. East - W. Europe
Domestic India
USA - W. Europe
Intra Western Europe
Domestic PRC
Domestic USA
Ten Largest Flows in 2030
Single-Aisle
Small Twin-Aisle
IntermediateTwin-Aisle
VLA
=500Aircraft
Passenger and Freight Aircraft Demand
VLA
IntermediateTwin-Aisle
Single-Aisle
Small Twin-Aisle
40%
27%
16%
17%by Value
Top Related