Air Force Weather AgencyFly - Fight - Win
AFWA Site Update
WG-CSABSpring 2010
John Zapotocny7 April 2010
Approved for Public Release
Fly - Fight - Win
Overview
Operational Backup
DMSP Spacecraft Status
Developmental Initiatives WRF FOC Ensemble Modeling Dust Forecasting Space Weather Modeling
Fly - Fight - Win
Operational Backup
NCEP - Storm Prediction Center/Aviation Weather Center 15 OWS provides primary short term back-up for SPC and AWC
Numerous Tests One real world back-up for SPC in October 2009
Space Weather Prediction Center (bi-directional backup) One 20-minute evacuation covered by SWPC in 2010 48-hour COOP
Requirements, key products, customers and needed redundant data/comm paths identified
Warning Dissemination Backup capability delivered to AFWA/SWPC Beyond 48-hr COOP
NCEP will provide alternate facility NLT FY11. AFWA will have access to this site if SWPC is disabled
NESDIS – Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) 2 real world backups/1 scheduled backup
Fly - Fight - Win
DMSP Spacecraft StatusMar 2010
Slide removed in public release version
Fly - Fight - Win 5
WRF FOC
WRF ARW—transitioned to full operation capability Near 1 for 1 replacement with MM5 45-, 15-, 5-km windows 57 Vertical Levels 10 mb model top New Kain-Fritsch
Convection Scheme WRF Single Moment
- 5 Microphysics Yonsei Univ PBL Coupled to Unified
NOAH LSM 3DVAR data assimilation system
Fly - Fight - Win 6
WRF FOCOperational Theaters – Mar 2010
Slide removed in public release version
Fly - Fight - Win
Global and mesoscale ensembles in development mode Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) based on
GFS, NOGAPS, GEM ensemble members 2 cycles per day 240 hour forecast length, 6 hourly output Domain cut-outs based on warfighter feedback
Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) based on WRF and SREF ensemble members WRF—2 cycles per day per theater, 4 domains, offset 6hrs SREF—4 cycles per day SREF and WRF merged twice per day for CONUS only First ever multi-center, multi-model mesoscale ensemble
Contingency domain rapidly deployable—e.g., Haiti
Ensemble Forecasting
7
Fly - Fight - Win 8
12 km, 48 hours
4 km, 30 hours
40 km grids 3 hourly output
12 km, 48 hours
12 km, 48 hours
40 km, 132 hours
12 km & 4 km grids hourly output
AFWA Ensemble Domains
Fly - Fight - Win 9
Ensemble Webpage https://weather.afwa.af.mil/host_home/DNXM/JEFS/jefs.html
Available products for global (GEPS) and mesoscale (MEPS):
Precipitation AmountPrecipitation TypeSnow AmountCloud CoverLightningDust LoftingSevere WeatherBlizzardSurface Wind GustVisibilityWind ChillHeat IndexSmoke TrappingHaboob IndexSig Tornado Parameter
Realtime verification also available on webpage
Fly - Fight - Win 10
Strength of AFWA ensembles effort is cutting-edge exploitation of ensemble data Close collaboration with users to create algorithms to
generate actionable information for forecasters Algorithms still being refined and evaluated by users
and developers
Ensemble ForecastingMilitary Application
1010
Prototype Dust Joint Probability
Product
12-hForecast
Fly - Fight - Win 11
Ensemble ModelingMesoscale Ensemble Predicts
Large Scale Iraq Dust Event
12 km MEPS; 30-h forecast
4 km MEPS; 24-h forecast valid 6 hrs prior
Fly - Fight - Win 12
DTA-GFS Uses ½ degree GFS data
2 cycles out to 72 hours; 2 cycles out to 180 hours Affords unique strategic planning capability
Dust concentration and Dust visibility products Africa, SWA, and East Asia; 1 deg Ginoux (like DTA-MM5) Operational – Jan 10
DTA-WRF Delivered version uses 15 km WRF data out 48 hours; SWA only In house version uses 45 km WRF data out to 72 hours; SWA, Africa,
East Asia - prototype Both incorporate modified ¼ degree Ginoux database 15 km SWA operational Nov 09; 45 km products operational Aug 10
Dust Forecasting
Fly - Fight - Win 13
Early DTA verification study established relationship between concentration & visibility
Later added as DTA product
Subjective verification technique Area divided into grid Hit/no hit evaluated
Verification ongoing – visibility restriction due to dust added to model metrics
Probability of detecting (POD) a dust storm beyond 24 hours is 50-80%
Selected Region T+24 hrs T+36 hrs T+60 hrs
Iraq 70% 66% 60%
NE Afghanistan/Pakistan 80% 65% 50%
SW Afghanistan 65% 65% 65%
Dust ForecastingDTA Verification
Fly - Fight - Win 14
https://weather.afwa.af.mil/jaawin/eevents/dustTransport.jsp?region=SW_ASIA
Dust ForecastingDTA Visibility Product
Fly - Fight - Win 1515
Click picture to toggle
15
Before soil moisture correction
After soil moisture correction
Dust ForecastingSoil Moisture Improvements
Fly - Fight - Win 16
Dust Forecasting10 Mar 2009 Event - Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
DTA visibility forecast cycle - roughly 48 hours prior to event
Fly - Fight - Win
Dust Transport Application High resolution (0.25 degree and smaller) dust source region Development of a dynamic dust source region database Develop DTA-based dust ensemble products
Collaboration w/ Navy (NRL & FNMOC) COAMPS dust model products
Improve DTA to re-loft dust that has been deposited Initial work being accomplished by JHU-APL
17
TAKE-AWAYS:• Improved dust source region database• More accurate dust forecasts for the warfighters• Better forecast timing for event termination in the future• Dynamically updated joint dust source region database (planned)
Dust ForecastingWay Ahead
Fly - Fight - Win
GAIM – Full-Physics upgrade (GAIM-FP) due from USU in CY 12 Continue to assimilate new data and make enhancements Higher resolution, greater accuracy, and larger vertical domain
SAA model delivered from JHU-APL to support classified ops Adding ensemble mode to solar wind/ionosphere model (SWMS) Partnerships to advance space weather support
NASA – Helped CCMC refine iSWA to serve AFWA forecasters AFRL – SWFL will bring state-of-the-science models into the ops
environment to speed transition NOAA – SWPT will transition new models to ops for SWPC and AFWA
Upgrading HF comm support with advanced SWPC model
18
Space Weather Modeling
Fly - Fight - Win 19
Questions
Top Related