Agriculture Sector Agriculture Sector Performance in Southern Performance in Southern
AfricaAfricaBy Pius Chilonda
Sub-Regional Coordinator, ReSAKSS-SA
ReSAKSS Africa -Wide Conference on Agriculture: Exploring New Opportunities and Strategic Alternatives to Inform African
Agricultural Development, Planning and Policy
UNECA, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia23-24 November 2009
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Outline of Presentation
• Introduction
• Role of agriculture and recent trends in the context of SADC RISDP/CAADP/MDG
• Concluding remarks
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
ReSAKSS-SA• As part of the ReSAKSS network, ReSAKSS-SA is
supporting CAADP and SADC Regional Indicative Strategic Development Plan (RISDP) by providing analysis and knowledge support for agricultural development, planning and policy for accelerated growth and poverty reduction
• Monitoring of agricultural sector performance as expressed in CAADP, SADC RISDP, MDG 1 targets is one of our key activities
• Aim is to provide evidence about role and importance of agriculture based on regionally shared goals; therefore build a case for increased investment in the sector
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Monitoring CAADP and SADC RISDP targets
• A comprehensiveA comprehensive M&E framework has been developed M&E framework has been developed by RESAKSS and informs our workby RESAKSS and informs our work
• CAADP CAADP – 6% growth in agricultural GDP6% growth in agricultural GDP– 10% budget allocation to agriculture (Maputo 10% budget allocation to agriculture (Maputo
declaration) declaration) • SADC RISDP – 11 indicators to ensure food security SADC RISDP – 11 indicators to ensure food security • MDG 1 – hunger and povertyMDG 1 – hunger and poverty
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Main SADC RISDP Agricultural Performance targets
1. Achieving a GDP growth of at least 7% a year and halving the Achieving a GDP growth of at least 7% a year and halving the proportion of the population living on less than US$1 per day proportion of the population living on less than US$1 per day between 1990 and 2015between 1990 and 2015
2.2. Doubling cropland under irrigation from 3.5% to 7% as a Doubling cropland under irrigation from 3.5% to 7% as a percentage of the total by 2015percentage of the total by 2015
3.3. Increasing fertilizer consumption from 44.6 kilograms per hectare Increasing fertilizer consumption from 44.6 kilograms per hectare ((kg/ha) of arable land to 65 kg/ha of arable land by 2015 (world ((kg/ha) of arable land to 65 kg/ha of arable land by 2015 (world average is 98.8 kg/ha)average is 98.8 kg/ha)
4.4. Increasing cereal yield in kg/ha hectare from an average of 1,392 Increasing cereal yield in kg/ha hectare from an average of 1,392 to 2,000 (world average) by 2015to 2,000 (world average) by 2015
5.5. Doubling the adoption rate of proven technologies such as Doubling the adoption rate of proven technologies such as improved seed varieties, and management of water and land by improved seed varieties, and management of water and land by 20152015
6.6. Increasing livestock production by at least 4% annuallyIncreasing livestock production by at least 4% annually
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
The role of agriculture and recent trends in the context of SADC RISDP, CAADP and MDG1
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Human population is still largely rural based
Source: World Bank (2009)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Agriculture still employs more people than non-agricultural sectors
Source: FAOSTAT (2009) Note: Estimated and Projected -2008-)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Agriculture is most important in 7 low income countries out of 15 SADC countries (2008)
Low income
Lower middle income
Upper middle income
Source: World Bank (2009)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
SADC wide GDP growth rates impressive since 2003, but yet to reach SADC RISDP target
SADC RISDP target (7% GDP growth)
Source: World Bank (2009)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
… strong GDP growth yet to translate into poverty reduction and improved welfare……
Source: SADC (2008)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Agriculture needs to contribute to more economic growth in order to contribute to poverty reduction
Source: World Bank (2009)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Along with SSA, the SADC region has low agricultural value added per worker
Source: World Bank (2009)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Progress towards the 6% agriculture GDP CAADP growth target
CAADP ag GDP target (6%)
Source: FAOSTAT (2008)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Average cereal yield still to reach 2000kg/ha SADC RISDP target
Source: FAOSTAT (2008)
SADC RISDP target 2000kg/ha by 2015
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Maize productivity relatively flat
Source: FAOSTAT (2008)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Livestock production against SADC RISDP target of at least 4% growth per annum
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1990-2000 2000-03 2003-05 2004-05
4% growth in livestock production
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Net importer of livestock products in value terms
Source: FAOSTAT (2008)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Fertilizer consumption yet to achieve SADC RISDP target of 65kg/ha
SADC RISDP target 65kg/ha by 2015
Source: SADC (2008)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Progress towards the SADC RISDP target of 7% of area under irrigation
SADC RISDP target 7% area under irrigation by 2015
Source: SADC (2008)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Progress towards 10% share of agriculture in public investments
10% Maputo declaration
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Percentage of agriculture budgets in national budgets- Malawi
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Sub-sector contribution in total agriculture spending - Malawi
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Composition of Agricultural Spending: The Case of Zambia
Source: ReSAKSS-SA, MACO (Zambia), MSU (Zambia)
Example of Zambia’s 2005 Budget
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Concluding remarks
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Conclusion
• There is varying progress in agricultural sector performance, with most targets yet to be met
• Challenges still exist:– stabilizing and enhancing agricultural growth rates– increasing budget allocations to the sector and
identification of policy and investment options– Increasing agricultural productivity, especially
narrowing the yield gaps– Enhancing market access, while taking advantage of
regional integration efforts
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