Download - Agent Activation Regimes

Agent Activation Regimes

Rob AxtellBrookings Institution

Santa Fe Institute

George Mason University

Agents as Simulation Systems

• Discrete Event Simulation– Population of objects– Objects ‘wired’ together in some fashion– Objects act/interact upon ‘events’

– External events– Internal events

– Objects not (usually) autonomous

• Discrete Time Simulation– Often discretization of continuous time system

Agent models have features of both

Who Interacts with Whom?

• Need to specify how agents are activated– Serial or parallel?

• Serial: uniform, random, Poisson clock

• Parallel: synchronous or asynchronous?

• Need to specify the graph of interaction

• If data available, use it!

In what follows, a population of A agents

Review of terms…

• Serial: Agents act one at a time

• Parallel:– Synchronous: All agents acts in lock-step, with

previous period’s state information (e.g., CAs)– Partially asynchronous: Agents act in parallel

and communicate as possible (delays bounded)– Fully asynchronous: Agents act in parallel

without any guarantees on delays

Review of terms…

• Serial: Agents act one at a time

• Parallel:– Synchronous: All agents acts in lock-step, with

previous period’s state information (e.g., CAs)– Partially asynchrounous: Agents act in parallel

and communicate as possible (delays bounded)– Fully asynchronous: Agents act in parallel

without any guarantees on delays

Nowak and Mayvs

Huberman and Glance, I

• Context: Early ‘90s, microcomputer color graphics just possible, spatial games a new idea

• Nowak and May in Nature: Ostensibly showed that a spatially-extended PD game could support large-scale cooperation

• Theory? Screen snapshot!

Nowak and May

Red and yellow are defectors, green and blue are cooperators

Nowak and Mayvs

Huberman and Glance, II• Huberman and Glance (PNAS): This result is an

artifact of synchronous updating in the model

Nowak and Mayvs

Huberman and Glance, III

• Nowak and May responded that synchronization was common in biological systems

• Huberman and Glance answered that this rationale does not apply to human social systems

Uniform Activation: Idea

• A period is defined by all A agents being activated exactly once

• Feature: No agent inactive• Problem: Calling agents in same order could create

artifacts• Fix: Randomize the order of agent activation• Cost: Expensive to randomize?• Unknown: How much randomization is OK?• Examples: Sugarscape, many early agent models

Uniform Activation: Implementation, I

Agent 1 state 1 state 2

…behavior1()behavior 2()

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Agent A state 1 state 2


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Agent array

System memory




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Activate the population at agent 1, sequentiallyProblem: Agent 1 always gets to move first




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Pick random starting point

Problem: Agent i always moves before agent i+1




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Pick random starting point AND random direction

Problem: Still correlation between i and i+1




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Solution: Array/list randomization together with randomstarting point and random direction

Uniform Activation: Implementation, II—Efficiency



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Pointer toAgent 1

Agent array

Pointer toAgent 2

Pointer toAgent 3

Pointer toAgent 4

Pointer toAgent A

System memory

Uniform Activation: Implementation, II—Efficiency



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Pointer toAgent 1

Agent array

Pointer toAgent 4

Pointer toAgent 3

Pointer toAgent 2

Pointer toAgent A

System memory

Uniform Activation: Implementation, III

How Much ‘Shuffling’ to Do?

Pointer toAgent 1

Agent array

Pointer toAgent 2

Pointer toAgent 3

Pointer toAgent 4

Pointer toAgent 5

Case 1: Neighbors swapped

Result: 4 agents have 1 new neighbor each

Pointer toAgent 6



Pointer toAgent 1

Agent array

Pointer toAgent 2

Pointer toAgent 3

Pointer toAgent 4

Pointer toAgent 5

Case 2: Agents with common neighbor swapped

Result: 2 agents have 1 new neighbor each2 (moving) agents have 2 new neighbors each

Pointer toAgent 6



Pointer toAgent 1

Agent array

Pointer toAgent 2

Pointer toAgent 3

Pointer toAgent 4

Pointer toAgent 5

Case 3: Agents distant from one another swapped

Result: 4 agents have 1 new neighbor each2 (moving) agents have 2 new neighbors each

Pointer toAgent 6

Uniform Activation: Implementation, III—Shuffling

25 50 75 100 125 150

% Rearranged

20

40

60

80

100

Percentage of Agents with New Neighbors

≥ 1

2

To give 1/2 of the agents 1 new neighbor, shuffle ~ 25% of agentsTo give 1/2 of the agents 2 new neighbors, shuffle ~ 50% of agents

Random Activation: Idea

• Agents are selected to be active with uniform probability

• A period is defined by A agents being activated• Feature: Super efficient to implement• Cost: Not all agents are active each period• Unknown: When different from uniform activation?• Examples: Zero-intelligence traders, bilateral

exchange, Axelrod culture model, many others

Random Activation: Analysis, I

At each ‘click’ the probability a specific agent isactivated is 1/AOver K activations—K/A periods—the probability an agent is activated exactly i times is

€

Ki

⎛

⎝ ⎜

⎞

⎠ ⎟1A

⎛

⎝ ⎜

⎞

⎠ ⎟i

A −1A

⎛

⎝ ⎜

⎞

⎠ ⎟K −i

The mean number of activations is K/AThe variance in the number of activations across the agent population is K(A-1)/A2 K/A, the meanThe skewness is (A-2)/K(A-1)

Call w the number of ‘clicks’ an agent has to wait to be activated, the waiting time. It’s distribution is

The expected value is A-1 and the variance is A(A-1)

In terms of time:Let us say that T periods have gone by, thus K = TAThe mean number of activations is T, as we expectThe variance is now T(A-1)/A TThe coefficient of variation is (A-1)/A 1The skewness becomes (A-2)/TA(A-1) 1/T

Random Activation: Analysis, II

€

Prw =K[ ] =1A

A −1A

⎛

⎝ ⎜

⎞

⎠ ⎟K −1

Random Activation: Analysis, III

Generalization: k agents active at each ‘click’1 period still consists of A clicksPr[a specific agent is active at any click] = k/APr[agent activated exactly i times over T periods]:

Mean number of activations is kTVariance is kT(A-k)/ACoefficient of variation is (A-k)/ASkewness is (A-2k)/kTA(A-k)

€

TAi

⎛

⎝ ⎜

⎞

⎠ ⎟kA

⎛

⎝ ⎜

⎞

⎠ ⎟i

A −kA

⎛

⎝ ⎜

⎞

⎠ ⎟TA−i

Random Activation: Example

Bilateral exchange model: Distribution of agent activations with random pairings; k = 2, A = 100, T = 1000

Comparison of Uniform and Random Activation Regimes

• Example 1: Axelrod culture model– Replication with Sugarscape model– Qualitative replication succeeded, quantitative

replication failed– Converted Sugarscape agent activation from

uniform to random, then quantitative replication worked!

• Example 2: Firm formation model

Poisson Clock Activation: Idea

• Story: Each agent has an internal clock that wakes it up periodically

• A period is defined as the amount of ‘wall time’ such that A agents are active on average

• Feature: ‘True’ agent autonomy• Disadvantage: Agents must be sorted each period• Examples: Sugarscape reimplementation, game

theory models

Poisson Clock Activation: Implementation

• Specify at the beginning that the model will be run

for T periods• At time 0, for each agent draw T random numbers as

ti+1 = ti - log(U[0,1])

• Now, sort these AT random numbers to develop a

schedule of agent activation:• Naïve sort scales like N2

• Quicksort goes like N log(N)

Poisson Clock Activation: Analysis

Over T periods, the mean number of activations/agent = TThe variance is also TSkewness and kurtosis are each 1

Now, the number of agents, n, active each period is a random variable having pmf

Assumes a nearly Gaussian shape for large A

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f n;A( ) =e−AAn

n!

Comparison of Uniform and Poisson Activation Regimes

• Sexual reproduction runs of Sugarscape can yield large-amplitude fluctuations

• Computer scientists reimplementing Sugarscape attempted to replicate this finding

• Results negative, i.e., not robust to activation regime

Agent Activation Intercomparison

Regime Summary Advantage Disadvantage

UniformEvery agent active every

periodSimple

Requires randomization of call order

Random

Fixed # of agents active,

some more than others

FastLeast credible behaviorally

PoissonVariable #

active, some more active

Gives agents autonomy

Scheduling the agents is costly

Preferential Activation [Page 97]

• What if agent activation were not so egalitarian?

• What if agents could user their resources to ‘buy’ activations?

• Could successful agents gain further (positive feedback)?

• Perhaps a firm can be thought of in this way

• No definitive results but clearly this matters

Lessons

• Activation regime may matter, especially for the quantitative character of your results

• Dr. Pangloss world: robustness of each result would be tested with each activation regime– Easy in Ascape, MASON, RePast– Not easy in NetLogo

Does Agent Activation Regime Always Matter?

• Gacs [1997]: Technical requirements for updating not to matter

• Istrate [forthcoming, Games and Economic Behavior]: When models are formally ergodic, the asymptotic states are shown to be independent of agent activation schemes

How to Activate Agents with Many Rules?

• So far, agents only have had 1 behavior

• Now, agents have multiple behaviors, e.g., movement, gathering, trading, procreation

• Previous problem now intra-agent:– Uniform activation– Random activation– Poisson clock activation

Agent i: rule A rule B rule C

Agents with Multiple Rules

• In Ascape, other agent-modeling platforms, there are software switches to either– Execute all agent rules when agent activated

Agent k: rule A rule B rule C

Agent j: rule A rule B rule C


Agents with Multiple Rules

• In Ascape, other agent-modeling platforms, there are software switches to either– Execute all agent rules when agent activated– Execute all agents on a particular rule and

repeat for other rules

Agent k: rule A rule B rule C

Agent j: rule A rule B rule C


Reality: Each Agent on Own ‘Thread’

• Serial execution getting ‘messy’ so why not just move asynchronous parallel execution?– Now need rules for collisions:

• Avoidance: collision immanent, so flip coin, say

• Adjudication: collision has happened, resolve it

• Social institutions ‘solve’ these problems in reality

– Debugging can be difficult

• Multi-threading: debugging very difficult