Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win
AFWA WG-CSAB UpdateSpring 2012
Dr. John Zapotocny
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win
Overview
Current Operations Backup for COPC Partners DMSP Status Modeling
WRF UK Model Ensembles
HPC Configuration
Initiatives GSI-WRF Integration Aerosol Modeling AFW-WEBS
2
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 3
Backup for COPC Partners
NCEP - Storm Prediction Center/Aviation Weather Center Backup provided by 15 OWS (Scott AFB, IL) SPC real world backups in past year - 1 AWC real world backups in past year – 0 (4 stand-by instances due to
AWC power issues) Successful backup exercises – 6 (4 for AWC, 2 for SPC; severe
thunderstorm watch issued/verified during last SPC exercise) Space Weather Prediction Center (bi-directional backup)
Backup provided by 2 WS (Offutt AFB, NE) Real world backups in past year – 4 Successful backup exercises – 1
NESDIS – Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Backup provided by 2 WS (Offutt AFB, NE) Real world backups in past year – 4 Successful backup exercises – 2
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win
REMOVED Slide 4 for Public Web Posting
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win
REMOVED Slide 5 for Public Web Posting
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win
REMOVED Slide 6 for Public Web Posting
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win
REMOVED Slide 7 for Public Web Posting
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 8
Global NWPUnited Kingdom Met Office Model
UKMO Model at AFWA Initialization grids obtained
from Exeter Model runs 4x/day at 20 km
resolution to 240 hours Provides initial/lateral
boundary conditions for WRF regional runs
Standard products available via AFW-WEBS
Gridded data sharing limited to DoD & allies
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 9
Ensemble Modeling
Probability Products:QPF Thresholds, Precip Type,
Snowfall, Cloud Cover, Lightning, Hail Size, Dust Lofting Potential,
Severe TRW, Blizzard, Wind Gusts, Ceiling/Visibility, Wind
Chill, Heat Index, Haboob Threat
Global Ensemble 2x/day NUOPC multi-model inputs
(GFS, GEM, NOGAPS) forecasts to 240 hours
WRF-based Global & Regional Ensembles 2x/day
Global to 144 hours 12 km Nests to 48 hours 4 km Nests to 24 hours 10 members using varying
physics and lower boundary conditions
Training & Outreach Working with forecasters &
decision makers Formal training via CBT and
COMET
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 10
WRF EnsemblesGlobal & Regional
50 knot wind gust probability at 19Z58 knots observed at 1911Z
Black contour = where individual ensemble member forecasted 40 knots sustained
Northern Hemisphere
Southern Hemisphere
Tropical Stripe
Global 40 km WRF Ensembles
4 km SWA WRF Ensemble
12 km WRF Ensemble Regions
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 11
Computing Capacity: Unclassified: 68 TFlps Classified: 23 TFlps Total: 91 TFlps Power : Available: 1,225 Kw HPC Usage: 308 Kw
Prod9: UM/WRF/Ensembles 4800 Cores 51.0 TFlps
R&D 256 Cores 2.5 TFlps
SProd8: Spec Models/WRF576 Cores9.0 TFlops
ACN
CLASSIFIEDSProd9: WRF 1.67km1344 Cores14.0 TFlops
Prod8: Spec Models/Ensembles 1280 Cores 12.5 TFlps
Dev8: Dev/Test 192 Cores 2.0 TFlps
High PerformanceNetwork
UNCLASSIFIED
AFWA HPC SystemAs of Mar 2012
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 12
Region Model Res. Len.
Afghan WRF 1.67 30
South Korea WRF 1.67 30
Nevada WRF 1.67 30
Colombia WRF 1.67 30
Alaska WRF 1.67 30
Turkey WRF 1.67 30
CONUS WRF 4 72
Globe UM 20 240/384
GCW-E WRF 20/30 144
GCW-P (PAIS) WRF 20 72
Post-Processing WRF 45/15
Mx & Recovery
Cor
es
4800
2400
3600
1200
00Z 12Z06Z 18Z 00Z
28 OWS 02-06Z 120hr hazards 28 OWS 14-18Z 120hr hazards
17 OWS 04-10Z AK 120hr Sfc / 48hr Hazards 17 OWS 15-22Z Korea JOAF 120hr All-charts
15th/25th/26th OWS 0430-09Z—All 48hr prod 17 OWS 17-00Z Pacific AOR All 48hr Production
AFSOUTH 06-10Z All 120hr production 21 OWS 18-21Z 48hr hazards
21 OWS 06-09Z 120hr sfc/cloud
OWS Production Cycle as of Oct 2010
3DWF: 24 Cores/hr
WRF-V (Volcano): 96 Cores/hr
Re-WRF: 144 Cores/hr
Global ensemble: 10 members GCW-P (PAIS): 20km, 57 levels
N.H./S.H. (dashed) Tropical (solid)
HPC – PROD 9Projected Utilization Summer ‘12
Ensem
bleC
ON
US
GC
W-E
Tropics
GC
W-E
N.H
./S
.H.
GC
W-P
GC
W-P
Ensem
bleC
ON
US
GC
W-E
Tropics
GC
W-E
N.H
./S
.H.
GC
W-P
GC
W-P
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win
Cor
es
4800
2400
3600
1200
00Z 12Z06Z 18Z 00Z
1300
• Ensemble Characteristics• “Design-to-fit• 10 members• 4 km domain resolution (Area: 400 x 400)• 48 h forecast length
Ens
Region Model Res. Len.
Afghan WRF 1.67 30
South Korea WRF 1.67 30
Nevada WRF 1.67 30
Colombia WRF 1.67 30
Alaska WRF 1.67 30
Turkey WRF 1.67 30
Mx & Recovery
HPC – SPROD 9Projected Utilization Summer 2012
Ens
EnsEns
EnsEns
EnsEns
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win
Cor
es
4800
2400
3600
1200
00Z 12Z06Z 18Z 00Z
1300
• Ensembles consist of 10 members• Ensemble solution is “design-to-fit”• All domains at 4 km
Region Model Area Res. Len.
SWA MEPS (GFS) 1000x450 4 72
East Asia MEPS (GFS) 600x450 4 72
Somalia MEPS (GFS) 400x500 4 72
Tropical MEPS (GFS) 400x400 4 54
SpecGEPS Misc. 1 deg 240
Mx & Recovery
HPC – PROD 8Projected Utilization Summer ‘12
• PROD 5/7 support contract ends 1 Mar 2012
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 15
Initiatives
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 16
GSI-WRF Integration
Establish working GSI prototype on AFWA HPCCurrently running on Dev 8
Producing a 48-hr forecast at 12Z cycle
6-hr init from 6Z cycle
Full DA for 6Z and 12Z run
GSI based NH WRF with initial satellite data assimilationInitially planned: COSMIC and AMSU-A -- completedAdditional: HIRS3 and HIRS4 – completed Imminent: WINDSAT Actively working: AIRS, IASI, and ASCAT
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 17
Working PrototypeWRFVAR/GSI Comparison
Configure Parallel RunsConduct Parallel Runs
Statistical Analysis
DTC Community CapabilityCost Analysis
Community Funding Decision
Phase 2 Decision
GSI Operational TransitionOptimize AFWA Pre-Processing
Configure Code for ops efficiency
GSI SustainmentParticipate in GSI Review Committee
Establish New Satellite Data Flows
Jan
12 Mar
12
May
12
Jul 1
2
Sep 12
Nov
12
Jan
13 Mar
13
May
13
Jul 1
3
Sep 13
GSI Integration Schedule
Dec 11 – Mar 12
Apr 12 – 15 May 12
Apr 12 – Fall 2012
15 May 12 – 1 Aug 12
Aug 12 – Sep 12
LEGENDMajor ActivityPlanned/In progressComplete
Sep 12 – Jan 13
Sep 12 – Jan 13
Sep 12
Sep 12 – Jan 13
Mar 12 – May 12
Mar 12 – May 12
Sep 12
Phase 1
Phase 2
IOC
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 18
DTA (GFS & WRF based) GFS DTA ½ degree resolution,
4 cycles/day out to 72 hours, 2 cycles/day out to 180 hours
WRF DTA 15 km resolution, 4 cycles/day out to 48 hours
Dust concentration and Dust visibility products
Both use Ginoux source regions
Aerosol ModelingDust Transport Application & WRF-Chem
WRF-Chem AFWA is developing WRF-Chem based aerosol forecasts (including dust) with transition
to Ops planned in CY2013 WRF-chem simulates the emission, turbulent mixing, transport, transformation, and fate
of trace gases and aerosols. The WRF Atmospheric Chemistry Working Group is guiding the development of WRF-chem.
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 19
AFW-WEBS UpdateRecent Improvements
Google Earth/Maps Selective 5m resolution over Google Premium
15m dataset Global 90m resolution terrain w/ HRTE in AFG Add’l base maps—Imagery/Map/Chart
Will continue to add base map options North America roads now available
Global plannedFirst instance of OWS FITL products (USAFE)
Other regions planned for global product Data format conflicts being worked
Global Ensemble (GEPS)WRF 1.67km/3DWF windowsInitial polar-orbiter imagery for SWA
MODIS/DMSP/NOAA/METOP
https://weather.af.mil
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 20
AFW-WEBSUp Next
Transition from JAAWIN Port over remaining capabilities
Robust improved user interface Increase METSAT resolution
Degraded due to database capacity Capacity now tripled
Global polar-orbiter imagery WxSnapshot
Interactive site information Skew-T, meteogram, 5-day,
Stoplight Space weather Hemispheric WRF Mesoscale ensembles Single-site radar application Robust low-bandwidth capability
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win
Questions?
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