Centre for Policy Studies Conference 2014
Coping with Recession – A Regional Perspective
After the Gold Rush
Changes to the National & Regional Economies
of Ireland since the Downturn
Steve MacFeely
Centre for Policy Studies, UCC
NUTS Regions in Ireland
NUTS Regions in Ireland
NUTS 2
NUTS Regions in Ireland
NUTS Regions in Ireland
Before
Trade
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
SE -Exports
SE -Imports
BMW -Exports
BMW -Imports
Domestic
International
€ Billion
Total Imports and Exports, S&E and BMW Regions, 2005
Trade Balance
SE BMW State
€ Million € Million € Million
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing -618 234 -383
Manufacturing 34,220 1,199 35,419
Construction 472 -481 -9
Distributive Trades & Communications -685 -1,949 -2,634
Business Services -9,424 -3,529 -12,952
Other Services 391 -284 107
Goods 33,603 1,433 35,036
Services -9,245 -6,243 -15,488
Total 24,358 -4,809 19,549
Regional Net Trade Balances, 2005
Final Demand
Percentage Distribution of Regional Final Demand, 2005
22
1
8
14
49
6
32
1
1116
25
14
0
20
40
60
Household Consumption
NPISH Government Consumption
Capital Formation
International Exports
Domestic Exports
SE
BMW
%
Total GVA
Regional Contribution to GVA at Basic Prices by Broad Industry Sector, €Billions, 2005
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Agriculture
Mining & Quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity, Gas & Water
Construction
Distribution
Transport & Communications
Financial Intermediation
Public Administration
Health & Education
Business Services
SE
BMW
€ Billion
Total GVA
% Regional Contribution to GVA by Broad Industry Sector, 2005
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Agriculture
Mining & Quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity, Gas & Water
Construction
Distribution
Transport & Communications
Financial Intermediation
Public Administration
Health & Education
Business Services
SE
BMW
Total GVA
% Sector Contribution to GVA by Region, 2005
2
25
9
18
29
16
4
21
14
18
21
22
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing
Manufacturing Construction Distributive Trades & Communications
Business Services Other Services
SE
BMW
Composition of GVA
Composition of Regional GVA, 2005
€ Million % € Million % € Million %
Compensation of Employees 65,963 46 52,045 45 13,918 52
Net Operating Surplus 60,155 42 49,846 43 10,309 38
Consumption of Fixed Capital 16,965 12 13,848 12 3,117 12
Taxes 1,550 1 1,272 1 277 1
Subsidies -1,442 -1 -801 -1 -640 -2
Gross Value Added 143,191 100 116,210 100 26,981 100
State SE BMWComponents
Composition of GVA
International
Imports
Domestic
Imports
Total
Imports
International
Imports
Domestic
Imports
Total
Imports
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 0.311 0.071 0.382 0.288 0.163 0.451
Manufacturing 0.591 0.016 0.607 0.388 0.145 0.533
Construction 0.313 0.027 0.341 0.180 0.115 0.295Distributive Trades &
Communications 0.238 0.017 0.256 0.089 0.085 0.174
Business Services 0.343 0.011 0.354 0.085 0.104 0.189
Other Services 0.144 0.010 0.154 0.109 0.084 0.193
SE BMW
Regional Import Multipliers, 2005
Before & After
Sector Composition of GDP
2007 2011
Index of Per Capita GVA (Basic Prices)
State = 100
NUTS 2 & GDA
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
State
BMW
S & E
GDA
Index of Per Capita GVA (Basic Prices)
State = 100
NUTS 3 & GDA
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
State
GDA
Border
Midland
West
Dublin
Mid-East
Mid-West
South-East
South-West
Index of Per Capita Disposable Income
State = 100
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
State
Border
Midland
West
Dublin
Mid-East
Mid-West
South-East
South-West
Regional Unemployment Rates
2000 - 2013
%
Quarter/Year
0
5
10
15
20
25
State
Border
Midland
West
Dublin
Mid-East
Mid-West
South-East
South-West
Regional Unemployment Rates
2000 - 2013
%
Quarter/Year
0
5
10
15
20
25
State
Border
Midland
West
Dublin
Mid-East
Mid-West
South-East
South-West
Unemployment Rates (%) by Region
2011
Quarter/Year
Regions most affected by employment loss
2007 - 2011
Quarter/Year
Population Growth
1996 - 2013
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Mid-West
Dublin
South-West
West
Border
State
South-East
Midland
Mid-East
1996 - 2013 2001 - 2013 2006 - 2013
%
Gateways & Hubs
2002 - 2011
%
Population Growth
-5 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75
State
GalwayWaterford
DublinLimerick
Cork
TullamoreMullingar
LetterkennyAthloneDundalk
Sligo
CavanTuam
MallowMonaghan
KilkennyState
WexfordEnnis
BallinaCastlebarKillarney
Tralee
Gateways & Hubs
2002 - 2011
%
Employment Growth
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
State
GalwayWaterford
CorkDublin
Limerick
AthloneMullingar
LetterkennyDundalk
TullamoreSligo
CavanTuam
MonaghanMallow
KilkennyBallina
WexfordEnnis
KillarneyCastlebar
Tralee
Population Change 2006 - 2031
Various Models
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2006
2011
2031 M2F2 Recent
2031 M2F2 Traditional
2031 M2F2 Modified
2031 M3F2 Recent
2031 M3F2 Traditional
2031 M3F2 Modified
000’s
Future Migration
2 Alternatives
-150 -100 -50 0 50
Border
GDA
Dublin
Mid-East
Midland
Mid-West
South-East
South-West
West
M3F2
M2F2
000’s
Projected Age Dependency Ratios (M2F2)
2011 – 2031
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Projected Age Dependency Ratios (M2F2)
2011 – 2031
40
45
50
55
60
65
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
GDA
Dublin
Mid-East
Border
Midland
Mid-West
South-East
South-West
West
State
Age Dependency Ratios
A slightly more pessimistic view…
27
61
12 0-19
20-64
65+
Unemployed or not in LF
Traditional: 0.54
Modified: 0.64
Age Dependency Ratios
An alternate, more pessimistic view…
27
61
12 27
39
12
22
0-19
20-64
65+
Unemployed or not in LF
Traditional: 0.54
Modified: 0.64
Alternative: 1.6
Real Median Income
2004 - 2012
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
State
Border
Midlands
West
Dublin
Mid-East
Mid-West
South-East
South-West
€
At Risk of Poverty
2004 - 2012
%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
State
Border
Midlands
West
Dublin
Mid-East
Mid-West
South-East
South-West
Material Deprivation
2004 - 2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
State
Border
Midlands
West
Dublin
Mid-East
Mid-West
South-East
South-West
%
Consistent Poverty
2004 - 2012
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
State
Border
Midlands
West
Dublin
Mid-East
Mid-West
South-East
South-West
%
Residential Property Prices Index: Jan 2005 = 100
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
National
National excluding Dublin
Dublin
Regional Distribution of Mortgages
& Negative Equity
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Mortgages
Negative Equity
%
Source: Duffy & O’Hanlon – ESRI working paper No. 463
Regional Wellbeing
A crude estimate (Year: 2004 = 100)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2004
2008
2012
Conclusions
Regions matter – despite some being artificial
Distinct economic and social structures
MNEs have a significant impact (2 speed economy)
Recovery being be led by S&E - Dublin & GDA (2 speed economy)
Congestion in GDA likely to continue
Several regions will most likely require greater subsidy in future
The End
steve,[email protected]
www.cso.ie
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