ADVICE FOR THE WISE
June 2016
CONTENTS • From The CEO’s Desk
• Did You Know?
• Domestic Equity Outlook
• Domestic Debt Outlook
• Domestic Debt Strategy
• Global Equity Outlook
• Global Economy Update
• Global Debt Outlook
• Sector Outlook
• Real Estate Outlook
• Commodities
• Foreign Exchange
• What’s Trending.
• Disclaimer
FROM THE CEO’s DESK
Dear Investors,
The heat is on. While many of us have been vacationing in cooler climes, the Sensex has kept itself rather busy, gaining another 4% during the month
of May. The up move has come largely on the back of better-than-expected corporate results and expectations of a good monsoon. Markets are also
taking cognisance of various indicators like improved auto sales, higher steel and cement off take, public infrastructure spending, etc. which are
positive signs of an imminent economic recovery.
Crude prices have silently crept up and are currently hovering at the $50 level, almost double from the January lows. So despite the adverse
implications of higher crude prices on the Indian economy, there seems to be some positive correlation between crude prices and the equity markets.
Though this pattern may not have always played out in the last few decades, the first few months of 2016 certainly seem to indicate so. The main
reason for this is the significantly high weight age that the Energy sector has in indices the world over. When oil plummeted to sub-$30 levels, it
seriously impacted the profitability of some of the world’s biggest corporations, not only causing their stock prices to fall sharply, but also impacting the
broader markets in general. It also indicated a global recessionary trend, thus affecting investor sentiment and causing them to become nervous and
risk-averse. The bounce back in crude has brought the price to a level that makes it profitable for companies to drill, creating a sense of well-being for
both, the Energy sector as well as the countries whose economies are dependent solely on oil. Where crude prices go from here remains to be seen.
After several quarters of benign inflation, the WPI rose to 0.34% while retail inflation soared to 5.39% in April 2016. This, coupled with higher oil
prices would make it difficult for Governor Rajan to announce a rate cut at the next RBI policy meeting on 7th June. Across the globe however,
Janet Yellen’s comments on improving economic data in the US has the markets believing that a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve is a high
possibility during its next meeting in mid-June. The outcome of Britain’s referendum on Brexit is also an event that we will be closely watching.
With markets factoring in all the good news for now, conventional logic says that short term investors need to be cautious. But when the stock
market catches momentum, all negative predictions may be proven wrong.
There are of course, many more bulls than bears when it comes to a 1 year plus view. Long term investors may continue their investments and
look to buy into any dips.
Wish all of you a happy monsoon season.
DID YOU KNOW
The size of the world bond markets
is close to US $31.4 trillion which is
nearly equivalent to the total GDP
of all countries in the world.
Indian auto industry currently
employs 19.5 million people both
directly and indirectly
.
The World's First Paper Money
was created in China 1,400 years
ago.
DOMESTIC EQUITY OUTLOOK
For the month, equity markets continued with its positive run. In line with
expectations, large caps out-performed mid and small cap indices.
Economic green shoots, better corporate numbers and expectations of
good rainfall gave strength to the overall markets. Domestic macros had
begun on a tepid note with latest monthly CPI moving up to 5.4%. On
the other hand, March Industrial growth came below expectations at just
0.1%. Wholesale price index at 0.3%, too turned positive after more than
a year of contraction. Higher food inflation pushed up the WPI as well as
retail inflation numbers. On the corporate front, March quarter has been
encouraging. Performance of Banking sector was on expected lines with
higher provisioning requirement denting the profits. Sectors like
Automobiles, Cement and FMCG came out with good numbers. Early
indicators suggest corporate performance to improve further in the
coming year. Since equities have moved up by more than 15% in just
one quarter, near term global events could keep markets range-bound.
Not only investors but RBI too would keenly monitor the probable rate
hike by US Fed in its June meeting. With higher inflation and upcoming
global events, one does not expect RBI to cut the rates in the coming
policy. March quarter GDP at 7.9% re-iterates India as one of the fastest
growing economies; making our equity markets a preferred investment
destination for long term.
As on 25th
May 2016 1 Month Change
1 Year
Change
Equity Markets
BSE Sensex 25,881 -0.48% -5.99%
CNX Nifty 7,934 -0.35% -4.85%
BSE Mid Cap 11,079 -0.09% 4.43%
BSE Small Cap 10,953 -1.42% -1.90%
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120 S & P BSE Sensex CNX Nifty BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap
DOMESTIC EQUITY OUTLOOK
GOVERNMENT POLICY
Passage of Bankruptcy bill by Rajya Sabha during the month is a positive. The move would help lenders to take tougher actions
against the corporate defaulters. Going ahead, all eyes would be on the monsoon session of Parliament where some of the key
bills including the GST bill would be presented.
WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX
• India's wholesale prices index stood in positive territory after
17 Months at 0.34% for April, 2016 as compared to -0.85% for
the month of March.
• Food inflation increased in the month of April by 6.32%.
Vegetables declined by 2.21%. Inflation in the fuel and power
segment was -4.83%%, while that of manufactured products it
was 0.71% in April..
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
• CPI for the month of April spiked at 5.39% as compared to
4.83% in March.
• Year-on-year, cost of food and beverages rose 6.21 percent
(5.27 percent in March).
• The food prices rose by 6.32% compared to 5.21% in the
previous month.
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
WPI CPI
Source – Tradingeconomics
IIP
• Industrial output in India fell to 0.1% percent year-on-year in March
of 2016, against 2% in February 2016.
• Manufacturing contracted 1.2%, as against 0.7% in February.
Meanwhile, the mining sector output contracted by 0.1% in March
2016
• The cumulative growth for April – March 2016 stood at 2% as per
CSO.
GDP
• India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the fourth
quarter of the current financial year grew at 7.9% versus a
downwardly revised 7.2% for the previous quarter.
• Manufacturing sector continued to show a robust growth of 9.3%,
whereas agricultural growth rebounded and grew at 2.3%. Mining
sector witnessed a growth coming at 2.2% Y-o-Y.
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Mar 15
Apr 15
May 15
Jun 15
Jul 15
Aug 15
Sep 15
Oct 15
Nov 15
Dec 15
Jan 16
Feb 16
Mar 16
IIP
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
GDP
Source – Tradingeconomics
DOMESTIC DEBT OUTLOOK
The yields on 10 Yr G sec closed at 7.46% which is 1 bps lower
than the last months close of 7.47%
A report released by Crisil said that while India needs around
Rs 43 lakh crore ($650 bn) for infrastructure build-out over five
fiscals to 2020, the country must look beyond the banks.
Foreign investors pulled out close to Rs 6,000 crore from the
Indian debt market in May after pumping in huge money in the
preceding month.
As on 25th
May 2016
1 Month
Change 1 Year Change
Debt Markets
10-Yr G-Sec-
Yield 7.46 (1bps) (21bps)
Fixed Deposit 7.25 0bps (75bps)
7.20 7.40 7.60 7.80 8.00 8.20 8.40 8.60 8.80 9.00 G-Sec
10 YR Gsec Yield 5 YR Gsec Yield 15 YR Gsec Yield
0
100
200
300
400
AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+
Corporate Bond Spreads
5 Years 10 Years 15 Years
Source – Reuters
DOMESTIC DEBT STRATEGY
SHORT TERM DEBT
Investors who have a low appetite for interest rate volatility and seeking accrual returns with moderate duration can
look at short term debt funds with the time horizon of 1 year to 2 years. Even though, most of the short term fund’s
YTMs have fallen to sub-9%, our recommended short term debt funds still have high YTMs (8.5%-11%) providing
interesting investment opportunities.
CORPORATE BOND FUNDS
The macro economic outlook along with corporate profitability seems to be improving. We remain positive on the
credit outlook and we look for opportunities in the credit space. The corporate bond market segment continues to be
attractive over the medium to long term. The yields are at elevated levels and interest rate outlook seems favorable.
The current scenario offers the potential opportunity to lock in higher accruals, with the expectation that these levels
of yields may not sustain over the short to medium term. With credit easing, there are chances that the companies’
rating will be upgraded that would further cause a rally in bonds, which in turn will benefit corporate bond funds.
DYNAMIC BOND FUNDS
As RBI has reduced the key policy rates, dynamic bond funds have benefited a lot as most of them have a mix of gilt
and long term bonds in their portfolio. Going ahead, we expect RBI to further reduce key policy rates only after
studying the macro-economic data such as inflation, movement in crude oil prices and so on Investors who don’t
want to time the market and who can depend on fund managers to take view on interest rates can look at dynamic
bond funds.
LONG TERM DEBT FUNDS
With the likelihood of another rate cut being minimal and the uncertainty with regard to the monsoon and global
commodity prices, particularly crude oil, a rally in G-Sec yields is unlikely. Investors should start exiting their
investments in Gilt Funds and Long Term Income Funds and go for accrual based short term funds.
GLOBAL EQUITY OUTLOOK
As on 25th
May 2016
1 Month
Change
1 Year
Change
Equity Markets
MSCI World 1668 -1.00% -6.30%
Hang Seng 20368 -4.85% -27.90%
S&P 500 2090 -0.06% -0.65%
Nikkei 16757 -3.43% -18.01%
GLOBAL INDICES
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140 MSCI World Hang Seng S&P 500 Nikkei
GLOBAL EQUITY OUTLOOK
•All eyes would be on the forthcoming US Fed meeting in June. Better employment data and uptick in consumption suggests a higher probability
of rate hike in this meet.
•”Brexit” would be another important event to watch out for, that can potentially lead to volatility in global currency and equity markets
GLOBAL ECONOMY UPDATE
UNITED STATES U.S. economic growth slowed in the first quarter although not as sharply as initially thought, as a surge in
home building and steady inventory accumulation partially offset the drag from a steep decline in business
investment.
The Federal Reserve sent a sharp, simple message to financial markets. The Fed is thinking seriously
about raising its benchmark interest rate at its next meeting, in June. Fed’s April meeting, which said
explicitly that most officials thought “it likely would be appropriate” to raise rates in June if the economy
shows clear signs of a rebound from a weak winter.
JAPAN
Japanese capital expenditure accelerated in the first quarter from the prior three-month period, suggesting
gross domestic product growth could be revised up, but analysts remain wary about the outlook given
growing pressure on corporate earnings.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is expected to announce that the government will delay a scheduled
sales tax hike by two-and-a-half years, but will likely bow to pressure from his coalition partner not to call a
snap general election.
Source – Reuters
GLOBAL ECONOMY UPDATE
EUROPE Greece and its international lenders are inching towards an accord over a set of extra measures
demanded from Athens to qualify for vital rescue funds.
A vote by Britain to leave the European Union in a referendum next month would create "a negative
dynamic" among the bloc's member states, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said.
EMERGING
ECONOMIES
Indian manufacturers increased activity for a fifth consecutive month in May but the pace of expansion
was weak as output growth softened for the second month in a row, a business survey showed.
Activity in China's manufacturing sector expanded marginally in May, an official survey showed. The
official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 50.1 in May, compared with the previous month's
reading of 50.1 and just above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction on a monthly
basis..
Source – Reuters
GLOBAL DEBT OUTLOOK
China is reopening its securitised bad debt market with two deals
worth Rmb534m ($81.6m) this month, eight years after regulators
shuttered the market at the onset of the global financial crisis.
Global fixed-income ETFs, which track bond indexes and trade like
stocks, attracted $60 billion of inflows this year through May 25,
according to data compiled by BlackRock Inc. That’s the most for
the period since the funds were created 14 years ago and on pace
to top last year’s record total of $93.5 billion.
Russia on 24th May sold its first bond since the country was placed
under international sanctions over Ukraine, but its pricing was
delayed and the bond was almost half the size that had been
expected. Part of the problem for many potential buyers was linked
to the role of market utilities which help settle bond transactions.
Ratings Country 10 Yr G-Sec Yield 1 Month
Change
AAA
Germany 0.14% (11 bps)
Hong Kong 1.33% 1 bps
Sweden 0.81% 18 bps
Switzerland -0.32% (6 bps)
AA+ USA 1.84% 2 bps
AA-
China 2.95% 5 bps
Japan -0.12% 1 bps
Source – Reuters
SECTOR OUTLOOK
SECTOR OUTLOOK
SECTOR STANCE REMARKS
Automobiles
Passenger vehicles and CVs will continue to outperform two-wheeler segment. Tractors to benefit on account of base
effect and expected normal monsoons.
Auto-ancillaries expected to do well due to revival of demand and stable global markets.
IT/ITES Select verticals displaying better growth. Digital segment to drive revenues.
Long term outlook to improve once global uncertainties come down.
FMCG
We prefer “discretionary consumption” theme within FMCG. Key beneficiaries such as durables and branded garments,
as the growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes. A bounce in
raw materials could put pressure on margins. Expect uptick in volumes post monsoons.
E&C Order inflows expected to improve as spending and capital expenditure likely to move up on economic recovery.
Moreover, sluggish execution and weak macros create a challenging environment.
SECTOR OUTLOOK
SECTOR STANCE REMARKS
BFSI Private sector banks continue to deliver earnings in line with expectations. However, PSBs delivering poor numbers on
higher slippages and lower credit growth. We expect this trend to continue for next few quarters.
Power Utilities Lack of fuel linkages , poor SEB health, adverse CERC guidelines have compromised the ROE’s leading to de-rating in
near term. Reform initiatives through UDAY can improve sector prospects in long run.
Cement Cement volumes and realizations saw uptick in South region. Early signs of recovery, specifically hopes of bounce back
in North and West region due to pick up in infrastructure. Cost benefits would continue to drive earnings.
Healthcare Regulatory risks have become more evident and frequent with FDA inspections for Pharma companies. US growth
continues to be muted for large caps due to lower approvals and regulatory issues.
SECTOR OUTLOOK
SECTOR STANCE REMARKS
Energy Crude prices at 6 month high though at substantially lower on annual basis. Nil subsidy in FY16 for OMC’s is a positive.
Trend expected to continue.
Telecom Regulatory uncertainties have come down. However, aggressive bids for spectrum has revived fears of sub-optimal
returns on capital. Further, expected launch of R-Jio at competitive prices in Q2FY17 will have negative implications.
Metals Lower global growth and Chinese slowdown has kept the growth subdued. Some recovery seen over past few months
with Chinese economy stabilizing. Long term prospects continue to remain weak.
REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
The Central Government has eased FDI norms and lifted
restrictions on ticket size, Project size and stage of entry
of capital thus, paving way for virtually any project to
receive Foreign equity funds. Residential Prices have
remained stagnant across Tier I markets. All Tier I
markets have continued to witness moderate decrease in
demand with sluggish market sentiments.
With improvements in infrastructure across cities like
Chandigarh, Jaipur, Lucknow, Ahmedabad, Bhopal,
Nagpur, Patna and Cochin and quality products being
offered the end users /investors are being spoilt for
choice. The Demand drivers have increased
nuclearization, rising disposable incomes and easier
availability of credit.
RESIDENTIAL Tier I Tier II
REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
Bangalore NCR and Hyderabad have seen strong
demand in the commercial segment and even Mumbai
has picked up in the later half of the year. The capital
values have also been on rise in major markets except in
NCR where values have remained stable. Absorption
volumes have been surpassing new completions
consistently, since H1 2014, as a result of which, the
vacancy levels in India have been dwindling.
Low unit sizes have played an important role in
maintaining the absorption levels in these markets. Lease
rentals as well as capital values continue to be stable at
their current levels in the commercial asset class.
COMMERCIAL Tier I Tier II
REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
In Mumbai demand for space in successful malls
continued to be on the rise and categories such as F&B,
premium apparel and entertainment dominated leasing
activity. International brands were seen increasing their
footprints . Hyderabad has seen a steady growth in
demand while markets like NCR, Bangalore and Chennai
remained stagnant.
The Mall concept is new to Tier II cities and High Street
retail is still popular. Anecdotal evidence suggests that
rentals have remained stagnant in this space.
RETAIL Tier I Tier II
REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
Fringe areas with improving connectivity to Metro cities
and other top 8 to 10 cities in India have seen interest in
purchase of Plotted / Villa developments due to lower
ticket size and better marketing by developers
/aggregators. There is an uptick in demand for
warehousing with the growth of E commerce.
Land in Tier II and III cities along upcoming / established
growth corridors have seen good percentage appreciation
due to low investment base in such areas.
LAND Tier I Tier II
COMMODITIES
GOLD
Gold, in line with expectations, corrected ~6% after peaking near $1300 during the month. Strengthening of dollar on back of probable rate hike by US Fed led to the fall. For near to medium term, the larger band of $1100-1300 remains.
• As on 25th May, 2016 : 28,980 per 10gm
• 1 month change : -0.28%
• 1 year change : 7.21%
24000 25000 26000 27000 28000 29000 30000 31000
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Gold
COMMODITIES
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices have been hovering around $50 mark. Both
Nymex and Brent crude, from decade lows, are at a six
month high mainly on account of signs that global surplus is
easing amid declining output.
• As on 25th May, 2016 : $47.77 per bbl
• 1 month change : 11.20%
• 1 year change : -22.50%
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
Crude
Currency As on 25th
May 2015 1 Month Change 1 Year Change
USD/INR 67.44 1.07% -5.34%
GBP/INR 98.56 1.85% -0.18%
Euro/INR 75.21 0.04% -7.40%
Yen/INR 61.32 1.83% -15.02%
USD/Euro 0.89 1.21% -1.48%
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
• A body of global standards-setters Thursday laid out new
principles for the safer and more transparent functioning of
the world’s foreign-exchange markets, aiming to restore
trust in currency trading following incidents of misconduct
in recent years.
• The Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) will be maintaining a presence
in the foreign exchange market until it settles.
• India's foreign exchange reserves went down to $360.90
billion as on May 20, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said.
• Nigeria's central bank is adopting a flexible foreign
exchange rate regime, Governor Godwin Emefiele said, in
a policy U-turn designed to boost exports and stave off a
recession in Africa's biggest economy.
1.07%
1.85%
0.04%
1.83%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
USD GBP EURO YEN
WHAT’S TRENDING
VENEZUELA CRISIS
What is it?
Supermarket shelves in Venezuela are chronically bare, and power shortages are so severe that government offices are now open only two days a week. The
health care system has collapsed, the crime rate is one of the world’s worst, and inflation is rapidly eroding what remains of the currency’s value..
Causes
• The price of oil, Venezuela’s only significant export, has plummeted, which means revenue could fall by 40 percent this year. The government’s huge
borrowing, has helped bring the crisis to a head because Venezuela now has far less money to repay its foreign debt, forcing Mr. Maduro to slash imports
in order to avoid default.
• On top of that are the consequences of a drought, which has shriveled the country’s hydropower generation, a critical source of electricity.
• The country owes roughly $120 billion to foreign creditors and must make a payment of nearly $7 billion this year, most of it in the final quarter.
• Its foreign debt is partly owed by the state-owned oil company, PDVSA, the country’s principal generator of revenue. Venezuelan officials fear that a default
would bring bondholder lawsuits. That could severely disrupt PDVSA’s operations and result in seizures of the company’s overseas assets, which includes
Citgo , which is vital for Venezuela because it generates much of the oil revenue that the country is still receiving.
• The cost of foreign goods has soared in Venezuela, which is importing far less as part of Mr. Maduro’s effort to conserve dwindling central bank reserves
which has led to a steep rise in inflation.
Source – www.nytimes.com/
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