Keith D Swenson
Sept 2014
Ulm, Germany
AdaptiveCM Workshop 2014 Keynote: status of the field so far
Innovation refers to the introduction of novel ideas or methods.
Knowledge workers … high degree of expertise, … involves the creation, distribution, or application of knowledge. - Thomas Davenport
Knowledge worker productivity is the biggest of the 21st century management challenges. In the developed countries it is their first survival requirement. - Peter F Drucker
By a number of estimates, • intellectual property, • brand value, • process know-how, and • other manifestations of brain power
generated more than 70% of all US
market value created over the past three decades. - “The Productivity Imperative”, McKinsey and Company
“The System”
Your
Organization
IT
System
&
People
Offices
Agreements
Skills Expertise
Relationships
Hardware
Software
Data
Desire to
optimize
the entire
system
Definition of BPM
Business Process Management (BPM) is a
discipline involving any combination of
modeling, automation, execution,
control, measurement and optimization
of business activity flows,
in support of enterprise goals,
spanning systems, employees, customers and partners
within and beyond the enterprise boundaries.
Ap
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De
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Ema
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Variable, Unique Predictable, Repeatable
Notes Documents
& Unstructured
Data
Databases &
Structured
Data
Dependencies
Unpredictable does not mean Random
Weather is unpredictable, but not random
Weather is predictable, but only a few days in advance
Predictability is related to Dependencies
Something that is “independent” is self contained and generally
predictable.
Something that is dependent on a small number of external things might
be predictable to the extent that the external things are predictable
Something dependent on large numbers of external things, or dependent
upon unpredictable things, generally can’t be predicted
Look for the amount of external dependency
Closed Systems
Even a closed system with no external dependencies can be
unpredictable.
lots of internal dependencies
iterations over and over
overly sensitive responses
Unpredictability is when the number of variables overwhelm the
possibilities.
This is known as chaos
but it is not random
It is not just that you don’t know the status well enough to predict, but
that it is impossible to know the status that well
Repeatability
Repeatable = Predictable
perfectly repeating == perfectly predictable
Can be differences, and still be repeatable
Everything is predictable the moment before it happens
It is about the amount of time ahead.
this is the prediction horizon
If the process lasts longer than the prediction horizon, then we
call it unpredictable.
It can not be predefined, and must be managed “on the fly”
Examples of Predictability Types
Predictability Description Change Horizon Work Duration
Very High Factory Work Many years Minutes to days
Very high Food Preparation Many years minutes
High Server Integration Years Minutes
Medium Order fulfillment Weeks to months Minutes to hours
Low Social Work Weeks to years Weeks to years
Very low Medical treatment Days to weeks Weeks to years
Very low Detective Hours to weeks Weeks to years
It is all about time
Unstructured
Late-structured
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Variable, Unique Predictable, Repeatable
Notes Documents
& Unstructured
Data
Databases &
Structured
Data
Development Investment
High Low
End User Effort
Low High
Cost to Modify
High Low
Control of Process
High Low
Ap
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v
Process Technology
Ema
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ting
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itter, Te
lep
ho
ne
Variable, Unique Predictable, Repeatable
Notes Documents
& Unstructured
Data
Databases &
Structured
Data
Ap
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PD
S In
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Hu
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M
Pro
du
ction
CM
Ad
ap
tive
CM
So
cial B
iz
Ema
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ting
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Variable, Unique Predictable, Repeatable
Notes Documents
& Unstructured
Data
Databases &
Structured
Data
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PC
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AC
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SB
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Ap
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De
v
Variable, Unique Predictable, Repeatable
Notes Documents
& Unstructured
Data
Databases &
Structured
Data
Traditional Programming model
Java
C++
C#
Design, develop, test, release
Very robust
Very Scalable and Performant
Costly to develop
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PD
S In
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ratio
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Variable, Unique Predictable, Repeatable
Notes Documents
& Unstructured
Data
Databases &
Structured
Data
Design using a process model
Easier to explain to business people
Easier to change and modify
Still mainly about server to server
integration, data flows
BPEL, Straight-Thru-Processing
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Variable, Unique Predictable, Repeatable
Notes Documents
& Unstructured
Data
Databases &
Structured
Data
Design using a process model
Model automatically takes care of
things that people do:
• reminders
• reassignment
• delegation
• escalations
• roles
• deadlines
Easier to
explain to
business
people
Easier to
change and
modify
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Pro
du
ction
CM
Variable, Unique Predictable, Repeatable
Notes Documents
& Unstructured
Data
Databases &
Structured
Data
Production Case Mgmt
Design using a case
model, but for
knowledge worker
Processes are more like
menu choices
Data is center
High volume
Knowledge Worker
for hire
Design remains
separate from users
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Ad
ap
tive
CM
Variable, Unique Predictable, Repeatable
Notes Documents
& Unstructured
Data
Databases &
Structured
Data
Not designed using a model,
but simply styled by the
knowledge worker.
Guidelines NOT guardrails
Designed data objects
Checklists
More documents
More msgs and
notes
Less DB use
Planning is part of
the work
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Variable, Unique Predictable, Repeatable
Notes Documents
& Unstructured
Data
Databases &
Structured
Data
Less customizable,
More basic capabilities
Special purpose cloud based
collaborative applications
• eVite, event bright
• Discussion forums
• Wiki
• Basic CMS
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Em
ail, Te
xtin
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Twitte
r, Tele
ph
on
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Variable, Unique Predictable, Repeatable
Notes Documents
& Unstructured
Data
Databases &
Structured
Data
Traditional communications
only,
No structure
All message and attachments
Ap
plica
tion
De
v
PD
S In
teg
ratio
n
Hu
ma
n P
M
Pro
du
ction
CM
Ad
ap
tive
CM
So
cial B
iz
Ema
il, Tex
ting
, Tw
itter, Te
lep
ho
ne
Variable, Unique Predictable, Repeatable
Notes Documents
& Unstructured
Data
Databases &
Structured
Data
Ap
plica
tion
De
v
PD
S In
teg
ratio
n
Hu
ma
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PC
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Pro
du
ction
CM
Ad
ap
tive
CM
Scripted and
Enforced
Process
Little or
No Defined
Process
History
1990’s Workflow, Business ProcessReengineering
2000’s Business Process Management
2010 – Emergence of Adaptive Case Management
Mastering the Unpredictable
2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 – Adaptive Case Management
Excellence Awards – 38 Use Cases Documented
Taming the Unpredictable, How Knowledge Workers get things done,
Empowering Knowledge Workers, and a new one…
2012-2013 AdaptiveCM Workshop 1 & 2
Now: AdaptiveCM 2014
Workflow Management Coalition
• Standards • Books • Awards • Information
Four years running. Four books
Real-life use cases.
Experience with ACM.
http://AdaptiveCaseManagement.org/
Workflow Management Coalition
2014: Thriving on Adaptability:
Best practices
for knowledge workers
Workshop on Adaptive Case Management and other non-
workflow approaches to BPM
2012 – Talinn Estonia, with BPM 2012
2013 - Graz , Austria, with OTM 2013
2014 – Ulm, Germany, with EDOC 2014
This continues to represent the leading research in ways to
support unpredictable work patterns.
for interoperability
A Canonical Scenario
Canonical Scenario
Patient
Alex
Primary Doctor
Betty
Back Specialist
Charles
Physical Therapist
Dennis
1. Always specialists
2. Separate companies
3. Must coordinate
4. Info sensitive
Confer Tests
Do
Do
Do Primary Doctor
Meet Research Recommend
Back Specialist
Assess Treat Conclude
Physical Therapist
Personal Assistant
Personal Assistant
Personal Assistant
Complexity & Emergence
Simple Rules to Emergent Behavior
1. Bunch
2. Swoop
3. Swirl
1. Avoid hitting each
other,
2. Stay near the flock,
3. Match velocity of
neighbors.
Deriving Rules is Difficult or Impossible
1. Avoid hitting each
other,
2. Stay near the flock,
3. Match velocity of
neighbors.
1. Bunch
2. Swoop
3. Swirl
?
Maybe we are focusing
on the wrong things?
Questions
Closed vs. Open systems
Monolithic System Assumption
Coherent Designer
Emergent Processes
Business Interaction Etiquette - not Protocols
e.g. Net 30 payment terms
Anti-fragile System Ideals
Personal Assistants
Cognoscenti
Open Source Project
https://code.google.com/p/cognoscenti/
Test bed & reference implementation for:
Case exchange protocol
Federated case management
Personal assistant
Demo
Alex Betty’s
Practice
Charles’
Practice
Dennis’
Space
Hosted on
Cloud Server
Hosted on
This Laptop
1. Personal Assistant helps coordinate communications
2. This is safer than email
Confer Tests
Do
Do
Do Primary Doctor
Primary
Doctor
Back
Specialist
Confer Tests
Do
Do
Do Primary Doctor
Personal
Assistant
What does it take to
make this software
act like a person?
Primary
Doctor
Back
Specialist
Personal
Assistant
Case Cloning
Confer Tests
Do
Do
Do Primary Doctor
Meet Research Recommend
Back Specialist
Personal
Assistant
Cloning: copy documents & data
Confer Tests
Do
Do
Do Primary Doctor
Meet Research Recommend
Back Specialist
PA has to bring
copies of DB
and documents Personal
Assistant
Confer Tests
Do
Do
Do Primary Doctor
Meet Research Recommend
Back Specialist
PA synchronizes
back when changed
within lower process Personal
Assistant
Fan-out Problem – Interworking All
Many
Primary
Doctors
Many
Back
Specialists
Many
Physical
Therapists
Fan-out Problem – Interworking All
Many
Primary
Doctors
Many
Back
Specialists
Many
Physical
Therapists
Differing Representations of Patient
Primary
Doctor
Back
Specialist
Physical
Therapist
Patient Info
Patient Info
Patient Info
Agent Must
Primary
Doctor
Back
Specialist
Physical
Therapist
Patient Info
Patient Info
Patient Info
Transform
schema
between
levels
semantic mapping
semantic mapping
semantic mapping
possibly
using
mapping
to
standard
ontology
Personal
Assistant
Personal
Assistant
Personal Assistant Can
Receive and screen notifications – filter the spam for
relevant notifications.
Task Introduction – find offered tasks, gather additional
information
Task Acceptance – sending a notice back to the sender.
Clone Project –automatically retrieve all the accessible.
Determine the Template –and start the process if necessary.
Synchronize – in both directions.
Transform Data – access the taxonomies that give the
semantic meaning of the data, and use that to transform the
data to a suitable form while synchronizing
Summary
In the future we might see
personal assistants interacting
with other personal assistants,
cloning & synchronizing projects,
and the large scale processes
emerging from that interaction.
Questions?
Keith D Swenson Adaptive Case Management Get free chapter of new book at http://workcast.org/
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