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Page 1: Adapting to climate change and variability: Tropical forests and wildfire

Adapting to Climate Change and Variability: Tropical Forests and Wildfire

Hety Herawati- CIFOR

Page 2: Adapting to climate change and variability: Tropical forests and wildfire

Tropical Forests

§  44  %  of  the  world  forests  are  tropical  forests  (1.768  billion  hectares,    Grainger  2008)  

§  They  are  most  species  rich  ecosystem  (Gentry  1992)  §  Produce  Fmber  and  non-­‐Fmber  products    §  Regulate  water  and  micro  climate  § MiFgate  climate  change:  sequestering  carbon  

Page 3: Adapting to climate change and variability: Tropical forests and wildfire

Fire in the Tropics

Fire  §  has  been  part  of  ecological  process  of  forests  §  has  been  used  widely  as  a  tool  e.g.  to:  •  Maintain  savanna  woodland  ecosystem    •  Reduce  catastrophic  fires    •  Clear  land  e.g.  for  converFng  forests    •  Maintain  grassland  for  livestock  •  Extract  forest  products  

By Heru Santoso

Page 4: Adapting to climate change and variability: Tropical forests and wildfire

Climate Change § Climate  is  changing.  IPCC  AR4:  At  the  end  of  the  21st  century,  CC  may  cause  :  •  Air  temperature  increase    of  1.8  oC  (B1)  –  4.0  oC  (A1FI),  

compared  to  that  in  1980-­‐1999    •  PrecipitaFon  change  •  Climate  extreme  events  (e.g.  hurricane  &  El  Nino)  characterisFcs    

to  change  

 

Page 5: Adapting to climate change and variability: Tropical forests and wildfire

Climate Change and Forest Fire

Climate  change  may  affect  forest  fire  §  Directly,  e.g.    •  Through  temperature,  precipitaFon,  and  natural  igniFon  changes  

§  Indirectly,  e.g.    •  Through  climate  induced  vegetaFon  changes  

 

By Alain Compost

Page 6: Adapting to climate change and variability: Tropical forests and wildfire

Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire in the Tropics (1)

Global:  Overall  CC  may  cause  fire  acFvity  increase  e.g.  fire  occurrence  and  area  burned  increase  (Flannigan  et  al.  2009)    

South  America  §  Fire  hazard  may  increase  in  2070-­‐2100    (Liu  et  al.  2010).  e.g.  

Amazon:    •  50  %  of  the  forest  may  have  higher  fire  danger  

by  2080  (Golding  and  Be_s  2008)  •  may  be  more  suscepFble  to  burning  more  

frequently  (Cochrane  and  Laurance  2008)  •  may  experience  fire  probability  increase  in  

2070-­‐2099  (Krawchuk  et  al.  2009)  

Eastern  South  America:  •  may  experience  fire  probability  increase  in  

2070-­‐2099  (Krawchuk  et  al.  2009)  By Yayat Ruchiat

Climate  change  may  increase  fire  acFvity,  for  example:  

Page 7: Adapting to climate change and variability: Tropical forests and wildfire

Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire in the Tropics (2)

Africa  §  Some  parts  of  Sudanian,  West  and  Central  ,  and  

Eastern  Africa  may  experience  fire  probability  increase  in  2070-­‐2099  (Krawchuk  et  al.  2009)  

§  Some  parts  of  West  and  Southern  Africa  may  have  higher  fire  danger  in  2070-­‐2100  (Liu  et  al.  2010)  

Asia  §  Some  parts  of  South  Asia  and  Southeast  Asia  Insular  may  experience  fire  probability  increase  in  2070-­‐2099  (Krawchuk  et  al.  2009)  e.g.  o  SimulaFon  at  2  sites  in  Indonesia  shows  that  

fire  hazard  may  increase  in  2070-­‐2100  (HerawaF  and  Santoso  2011)  

Nevertheless,  in  spite  of  CC,  there  will  be  regions  with  no  fire  acFvity  change  and  areas  with  fire  acFvity  decreases  (Flannigan  et  al.  2009;  Krawchuk  et  al.  2009)  

Page 8: Adapting to climate change and variability: Tropical forests and wildfire

Non Climatic Drivers of Fire

§  Direct  causes,  e.g.  from      •  IntenFonal  uses  of  fire  e.g.  for:  

o  clearing  land  o  harvesFng  forest  products  

•  Escaped  fire  §  Indirect  causes,  e.g.    •  Infrastructure  development  e.g.  road  

and  se_lement  developments  •  Forest  fragmentaFons  e.g.  by  logging  

and  agriculture  acFviFes.    •  Draining  peat  swamp  e.g.  for  oil  palm  

and  Fmber  plantaFons  •  Land  use  and  ownership  and  social  

conflicts    

Page 9: Adapting to climate change and variability: Tropical forests and wildfire

Adapting to Future Fire Danger Increase (1)

§  Be6er  land  use  planning  •  E.g.  allocaFng  lands  in  or  near  forested  lands  

§  Increase  forest  capacity  to  adapt  to  climate  change  and  wildfire  Climate  change  =>  addiFonal  stressors  to  forest  e.g.  unfavorable  

environment  for  forests.  Forest  dieback  =>more  prone  to  fire.  •  Promote  connected  landscapes  •  Increase  species  redundancy    •  Plant/re-­‐plant  with  mix,  less  flammable  &  more  fire  resistant  species    •  Use  seed  sources  and  species  that  can  adapt  to  future  condiFons    

By Patrice Levang

Page 10: Adapting to climate change and variability: Tropical forests and wildfire

Adapting to Future Fire Danger Increase (2)

§  Manage  fuel  availability  and  flammability  •  Minimise  anthropogenic  disturbances  impacts  e.g.  forest  fragmentaFon  &  logging    •  Intensify  liana  removal  •  Regular  forest  and  understory  thinning    •  PracFce    salvage  logging  •  Suppress  invasive  &  fire  resistant  veg.  species  e.g.  Imperata  &  Gorse  •  Tree  species  and  composiFon  change  

§  Enhance  wildfire  prevenCon  and  control                  FAO  (2007):  In  many  tropical  countries,  there  is  insufficient  wildfire  prevenFon                    knowledge,  capacity  in  wildfire  detecFon,  and  suppression  resources,  especially  in  rural  

areas.  •  Other  sectors  need  to  be  involved  in  addressing  fire  •  Prevent  igniFon  sources  reach  fire  prone  forest  e.g.  wider  fire  breaks  and  reduce  

fire  use  in  agriculture    •  Improve  fire-­‐fighFng  equipment,  knowledge  and  skills  

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§  Improve  policy  &  its  implementaCon    •  Improve  rule  system  in  governing  the  use  of  fire.    

The  exisFng  policies  and  legislaFons  usually  criminalise  the  use  of  fire    and  don’t  consider  the  importance  of  fire  for  people’s  livelihoods.  

•  Make  legislaFons  work  It  is  important  to  collaborate  with  all  stakeholders.  There  are  many  examples  of  success  stories  of  involving  local  communiFes,  e.g.  o   Namibia:  reduced  burned  areas  by  54%  and  decrease  fire  incidences  by  70%  annually    o   Kalimantan,  Indonesia:  areas  under  community  control  experience  less  burning  o   Central  America:  1.5  mill  hectares  of  forest  burned,  almost  none  burned  at  community  managed  forests    

•  Improve  law  enforcement  

Adapting to Future Fire Danger Increase (3)

Page 12: Adapting to climate change and variability: Tropical forests and wildfire

Adapting to Future Fire Danger Increase (4)

§  Enhance  access  to  knowledge  and  informaCon  on  forests,  forest  management,  and  climate  change  adaptaCon  •  Mainstream  adaptaFon  into  forestry  sector  in  the  tropics                                                                            

(e.g.  Increase  awareness:  enhancing  adaptaFve  capability  of    forest)    •  Improve  access  to  informaFon  on  climate  impacts  on  wildfire  &  adapt.  measures  

o  A  number  of  tools  available  for  assessing  future  forest  fire  hazards  e.g.  vegetaFon  and    fire  related  models  (LANDCLIM,  Glob-­‐FIRM,  MC1,  FDRS),  and  remote  sensing  (NOAA  AVHRR,  MODIS,  ERS  SAR)  

o  Many  insFtuFons  have  produced  guidelines  and  informaFon  related  to  forest  and  fire  management,  and  climate  change  adaptaFon,  e.g.    ⁻  FSC,  ITTO  &  CIFOR    =>    C&I  Sustainable  Forest  Management)  ⁻  ITTO  &  FAO    =>    Guidelines    for  managing  FF  ⁻  UNDP    =  >    AdaptaFon  Policy  Framework  

•  Explore  and  exchange  local  knowledge  and  experiences  on  nature  and  fire  management,  e.g.  o  Ghana:  CommuniFes  pracFce  fire  management  e.g.  fire  break  around  farms  and  

forests  o  Dayak  tribe-­‐Indonesia  has  customary  laws  for  using  fire.    

§  Etc.      

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Thank you

Email:[email protected]