A joint report by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime and the
Latin America and the Caribbean Region of the World Bank
Crime, Violence and Development:
trends, costs and policy options in the Caribbean
Outline…
Conventional and organized crime in the Caribbean: patterns and trends
Why is the Caribbean so violent? Development impacts In-depth analyses:
Youth violence Deportees Drug trafficking Gun trafficking Criminal justice reform
Some policy recommendations
91
7479
33
51
67
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1999 2000 2001
Mur
ders
per
100
,000
Police Ministry of Health
Homicide rates in Guyana: Police and Public Health Sources
Source: Guyana Bureau of Statistics, 2005.
Murders per 100,000 Population: Anguilla
10
0
10
0 0
9
0
1716
8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Pol
ice
reco
rded
mur
ders
per
100
,000
Source: Anguilla Statistics Unit
Assault Rates in Caribbean and Comparison Countries
2.5
10
93
103
219
754
1697
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
Singapore
Worldwide Average
Dominica
Barbados
J amaica
Swaziland
Bahamas
Recorded Assaults per 100,000 population
Source: Crime Trends Surveys – United Nations (various years).
Rape Rates in Caribbean and Comparison
Countries
0
15
18
25
34
45
51
112
121
133
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Saudi Arabia
Worldwide Average
Trinidad and Tobago
Barbados
Dominica
St. Kitts and Nevis
J amaica
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Swaziland
Bahamas
Reported Incidents of Rape per 100,000
Source: Crime Trends Surveys – United Nations (various years).
Share of Cocaine Flowing to the United States by Transport Corridors
59 5466 72 72 77
90 88
30 4333 26 27 22
10 12
11 3 1 2 1 1
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Sha
re o
f co
cain
e
Central America/Mexico Caribbean Direct
Source: U.S. National Drug Intelligence Center, various years.
Kidnappings per 100,000 Population in Trinidad and Tobago
10
12
10
1718
13
19
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
# of
kid
napp
ings
per
100
,000
pop
ulat
ion
Homicide rates and inequality
R2=0.249R2=0.249
Dominican Republic
Guyana
HaitiJamaica
Trinidad & Tobago
Dominican Republic
Guyana
HaitiJamaica
Trinidad & Tobago
110
100
Ho
mic
ide
s p
er 1
00,
000
popu
latio
n
.2 .3 .4 .5 .6Gini coefficient of income inequality
R2=0.249
Homicide rates and education
Barbados
Dominican Republic
Guyana
Jamaica
Trinidad & TobagoBarbados
Dominican Republic
Guyana
Jamaica
Trinidad & Tobago
110
10
0H
om
icid
es
per
10
0,0
00 p
opu
latio
n
2 4 6 8 10 12Average years of education for adults
R2=0.289
Cross-Country Determinants of Crime Rates
Variable
Constant 0.914 ** -1.107 ** 0.998 ** -1.108 **(0.458) (0.531) (0.453) (0.527)
Lagged dependent variable 0.833 ** 0.902 ** 0.808 ** 0.891 **(0.038) (0.031) (0.039) (0.032)
Growth rate -0.017 * -0.026 ** -0.017 * -0.026 **(0.010) (0.012) (0.010) (0.011)
Average income (log) -0.089 ** 0.174 ** -0.094 ** 0.178 **(0.040) (0.050) (0.039) (0.050)
Income inequality 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.002(0.005) (0.005) (0.005) (0.005)
Caribbean dummy 0.343 ** 0.264 *(0.139) (0.148)
Number of countries 61 54 61 54Number of observations 182 179 182 179R-squared 0.746 0.878 0.754 0.880
Homicide rate
Robbery rate
Homicide rate
Robbery rate
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Summary of Micro-Analysis of Risk Factors for Criminal Victimization
Dominican Republic Haiti
Violent Crime
(Murder)
Property Crime
(Robbery)
Property Crime
(Burglary/ Mugging)
Property Crime
(Burglary/Mugging)
Household-levelConsumption/income - + + +Female-headed + - not sig. not sig.Young men + - not sig. not sig.Education level + - + not sig.
Community/province-level Consumption/income - + not sig. n/aInequality not sig. not sig. - n/aFemale-headed + + - n/aYoung men + + + n/aEducation level - - + n/aPopulation density + - + n/aUrban + + + +Reporting rate - - not sig. n/a
Jamaica
Note: + and – refer to sign of statistically significant coefficients from probit regressions of household victimization
1.8% 1.7%
5.4% 5.4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
DominicanRepublic
Guyana Haiti Jamaica
Incr
ease
in A
nnua
l Per
Cap
ita I
ncom
e G
row
th
Boost to Annual Economic Growth Rate: Reducing Homicide Rate to Costa Rican Level
Impact of Crime on Business Practices in Jamaica
13%
18%
22%
37%
39%
51%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Other
Increased cost of servicespurchased
Negative impact on workerproductivity
Negative impact oninvestments to improve
productivity
Negative impact on plans forbusiness expansion
Increased cost of security
% of Firms Reporting "Significant", "Somewhat Significant", or "Highly Significant" Impact
Source: 2001 Firm Victimization Survey, described in Francis et al. (2003).
Cross-Country Regression Estimates: Effect of Violent Crime on Economic Growth
Source: World Bank (2006b).Notes: Standard errors are shown in parentheses. * significant at 5% level
Variable Estimates
Income -0.1362* (.017) Inequality 0.0013* (.0005) Male education 0.0120 (.0168) Female education -0.0084 (.0179) Price level of investment 0.0000 (.0001) Homicide rate -0.0021* (.0006)
Period Dummies Yes Countries 28 Observations 32
Reducing crime pays:
If the Caribbean were to reduce its homicide rate by one-third…
…per capita economic growth could more than double.
Youth as victims of violence: homicide rates
Country Year Total All
Ages Males
All Ages Female
Male Age15-29
Female Age15-29
Bahamas 1995-1997 14.9 26.1 -- 48.4 --
Brazil 1995a 16.7 23.0 4.1 81.2 6.5
Chile 1994 3.0 5.4 0.8 6.7 --
Cuba 1997 6.2 9.6 2.7 18.4 5.7
Colombia 1995 61.6 116.8 9.0 212.5 15.0
Dominican Republic
2002a
2005b 10.2 26.41
19.7 49.9
2.12
4.4
35.3
--
3.22
--
El Salvador 1993 55.6 108.4 8.4 133.1 8.8
Guyana 1994-1996 6.6 11.8 -- -- --
Jamaica 2004a 55.7 102.1 10.5 188.0 14.8
Trinidad and Tobago
1994 12.1 17.1 6.6 21.6 --
LAC average 19.3 34.7 4.0 68.6 6.4
United States 1998 6.9 10.7 3.1 23.6 4.6
Canada 1997 1.4 1.9 1.0 3.2 1.1
World 8.8 13.6 4.0 19.4 4.4
Source: World Health Organization. 2003. World Report on Health and Violence. Geneva. a: Based on data obtained from World Health Organization (August 2006). b: Estimates from National Police Statistics.
Num
ber
of d
eath
s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29Age
2005
2002
2000
Num
ber
of d
eath
s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29Age
2005
2002
2000
Num
ber
of d
eath
s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29Age
2005
2002
2000
Homicide Deaths by Age in the Dominican Republic, 2000-2005
Source: Dominican Republic National Police, unpublished data
Criminal Deportations from the U.S. to the
Caribbean: 1993-2005
Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Criminal Deportees from the U.S. per 100,000 Population of Home Country
Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security, 2005
Criminal Deportations to Jamaica by Source Country: 1998-2004
Source: Social and Economic Survey of Jamaica, various
years.
Deportees and Murders in Jamaica:
1998-2004
010002000300040005000600070008000
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Crim
inal
Dep
orta
tio
ns
0
500
1000
1500 Nu
mb
er o
f Mu
rd
ers
Canada deportees (left axis)
UK deportees (left axis)
USA deportees (left axis)
Murders (right axis)
Source: Social and Economic Survey of Jamaica; Jamaica Constabulary Force.
Criminal Deportees to Jamaica from All Source
Countries by Crime Type: 2001-2004
Firearms and violent crime
11%Robbery, burglary,
larceny4%
Other4%
Fraud and immigration
43%
Drugs38%
4783
1366495
488
5385
Source: Calculated from Social and Economic Survey of Jamaica, various years
Summary of Policy Recommendations
Good policy requires good information GIS data for policing and integrated programs (in
larger cities) Victimization surveys
Reformed and revitalized criminal justice systems are essential Reform of legislation is only the first step;
institutions matter Performance indicators are crucial step toward
professionalization and performance management
But avoid exclusive reliance on criminal justice systems; prevention initiatives can be highly cost-effective
Negative externalities for the Caribbean are clear in the case of: Drug trafficking Deportees Guns
Gun control is crucial to decrease the lethality of violent crime Gun registries, marking, tracking Interdiction in ports
Priority areas for policy research What works (especially in the area of youth
violence prevention) Role of deportees in crime
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