4th International Congress on Kerala Studies 2015
Disruptive Technologies in Global Electricity Industry: Implications for the Future
19th July 2015, Kochi
Dr Binu Parthan
Global Change
Energy Utility Revenue/ Business Models remain static over 100 years!
Three disruptive technologies: Distributed Energy Storage; Electric Mobility; Distributed Photovoltaics.
Major changes in Europe and North America – Asia;
India and Kerala – prepare and evolve
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Distributed Energy Storage
Traditional – Pumped Storage Hydro (90 GW); Batteries – Pb-Acid, Li-Ion -538 MW; US, Germany, Italy, China, Japan;
Distributed batteries– 21 GW by 2024
360 $/kWh -100$/kWh by 2025; Cost reductions – material
optimisation , scale-up – 35 GWh/Year to 122 GWh/Year – China and US. – cost and performance.
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Electric Mobility
PEVs & PHEVs; High growth rates – 200,000 in
2013; Norway, Netherlands – 5% of
market; 200k – 5 million - 2025 Night-time, Off-peak electricity
demand; 20-50 kWh energy storage – 2-5
days of energy demand- V2G technology, sell electricity;
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Distributed Photovoltaics
Driven by cost reductions – PV modules, inverters, batteries, electronics. – Manufacturing at scale- China & US – material optimisation;
13 GW of DPV globally – Japan, US, Germany, Germany, Spain, UK, Italy etc.;
India significant potential – untapped.
China – large DPV programme – 3-7 GWp in 2015;
2040 – 1710 GW DPV – biggest growth sector globally.
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Innovations
EVs- charging infrastructure, superchargers, battery-swapping; self-driving cars;
PV – Inverters, BOS, Racking & mounting; Batteries material optimisation – anode
materials – energy density, lifetime, energy dissipation, charge-time reductions;
Financing – Zero upfront – leasing or PPAs ; Crowdfunding; SolarCoin – Crypto-currency;
Policy – Net-metering; wheeling and banking, battery storage policies. EVs – tax reductions, incentives, charging points, driving lanes and parking preferences etc.
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Prosumer Evolution
Combination of Solar + Storage (EV or stationary battery);
Day-time PV generation to meet home demand and stored in batteries, batteries meet night-time demand – only early morning demand by utility – Germany for 2014;
Accelerate for other countries –US, Europe, China, Indie etc. with PV, Battery and EV cost reductions
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The Future Electricity Industry?
In the next 10-15 years –prosumers will change electricity value chain;
EVs – new revenue for utilities but EV storage disruptive;
Prosumers – sales + storage services;
Large IPPs, vertically integrated utilities struggle, distribution utilities benefit;
Some utilities, mange and own DPV + storage
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Implications for India and Kerala
Existing ecosystem – back-up generators, battery, inverters – easier for prosumer uptake;
EV uptake – Govt. policies – shift to electrical demand – mixed due to storage;
Government & regulators play a role in the pace of diffusion;
Utility will continue to have a role in economically backward households.
The utility model will evolve. Lets prepare ourselves.
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