Download - 2014 UK Future Energy Scenarios - Energy Supply

Transcript
Page 1: 2014 UK Future Energy Scenarios - Energy Supply

Twitter: #ukenergyemail: [email protected]

Energy SupplyMarcus Stewart : Energy Supply Manager

Page 2: 2014 UK Future Energy Scenarios - Energy Supply

X

Generation position 2014 vs 2013

2

Net Position -0.9 GW

But 3GW of new projects cancelled...

Closures -3.7 GWReturns 2 GW

Openings 1.1 GW

Page 3: 2014 UK Future Energy Scenarios - Energy Supply

2013

/14

2014

/15

2015

/16

2016

/17

2017

/18

2018

/19

2019

/20

2020

/21

2021

/22

2022

/23

2023

/24

2024

/25

2025

/26

2026

/27

2027

/28

2028

/29

2029

/30

2030

/31

2031

/32

2032

/33

2033

/34

2034

/35

2035

/36

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

GG14 SP14 NP14 LCL 14

In all scenarios IED opt out plantrun down by early 2020’s

3

Aggressive closure profile across all scenarios with GG and SP at lower end

Minimal amount of plant remaining is assumed to comply with IED or be converting to CCS

Early IED opt out

The increase in gas fired plant in order to compensate for coal closure profile

Coal

Page 4: 2014 UK Future Energy Scenarios - Energy Supply

Security of supply outlook

4

LOLE*

Decreasing security of supply

Increasing security of supply

*Loss of Load Expectation (LoLE) is measurement of the risk to consumers’ power supplies, and the Reliability Standard set by government is the maximum acceptable value of LoLE.

Page 5: 2014 UK Future Energy Scenarios - Energy Supply

Security of supply outlook

5

Mid decade products SBR and DSBR to address

EMR Capacity mechanism in place

LOLE

Page 6: 2014 UK Future Energy Scenarios - Energy Supply

2020 Generation mix

% 339 TWh 338 TWh 345 TWh 353 TWh100908070605040302010

6

Page 7: 2014 UK Future Energy Scenarios - Energy Supply

2035 Generation mix

% 424 TWh 331 TWh 339 TWh 406 TWh100908070605040302010

7

Page 8: 2014 UK Future Energy Scenarios - Energy Supply

8

Key Messages

Aggressive coal closure assumptions

Gas most likely to fill gap, but market intervention needed

Beyond 2020 technology range broadens across the scenarios

Page 9: 2014 UK Future Energy Scenarios - Energy Supply

Shale - Hero or Zero?

9

Page 10: 2014 UK Future Energy Scenarios - Energy Supply

2035 Import dependency

10

SWING-O-METER

90%40% 50% 70%

Page 11: 2014 UK Future Energy Scenarios - Energy Supply

Low Carbon Life

11

Page 12: 2014 UK Future Energy Scenarios - Energy Supply

No Progression

12

Page 13: 2014 UK Future Energy Scenarios - Energy Supply

13

Key Messages

Shale assumptions determine import dependency

Large variation across scenarios

Existing importation capacity can meet all scenarios