#A3NETWORK January 22-24, 2014 | Hilton Orlando Bonnet Creek | Orlando, Florida USA#A3NETWORK
2014 North American Machine Vision Market Update
Alex ShikanyDirector of Market Analysis
AIA
#A3NETWORK
I. U.S. Economic Indicators
II. Manufacturing Trends
III. 2013 Machine Vision Results
IV. What to Expect in 2014
V. Summary and Conclusion
Agenda
#A3NETWORK
I. U.S. Economic Indicators
U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – Year-Over-Year Percent Change
2.5%
3.5%3.1%
2.7%1.9%
‐0.3%
‐3.1%
2.4%1.8%
2.8%
1.6%
2.6%
‐4.0%
‐3.0%
‐2.0%
‐1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(p)
2014(p)
Growth continued in the U.S. economy in 2013 but weaker than initial expectations. Economists are forecasting 2.6% growth for 2014.
Source: IMF
#A3NETWORK
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Expa
nsio
nC
ontr
actio
n
2009 20112010 2012 2013
II. Manufacturing Trends
U.S. Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI)
U.S. Manufacturing PMI was very strong in 2013, never posting a month of contraction.
Source: Markit & HSBC
#A3NETWORK
II. Manufacturing Trends
707580859095100105
2007
Q1
2007
Q2
2007
Q3
2007
Q4
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2009
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2010
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2011
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2012
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2013
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
U.S. Industrial Production continued its ascent back to pre-recessionary levels throughout the year.
Index of U.S. Industrial Production (Quarterly Data – 2007 to 2013, Manufacturing Only –2007 = 100)
2007 20092008 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Federal Reserve
#A3NETWORK
II. Manufacturing Trends
60
65
70
75
80
85
2007
Q1
2007
Q2
2007
Q3
2007
Q4
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2009
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2010
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2011
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2012
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2013
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2007 20092008 2010 2011 2012 2013
Percent U.S. Manufacturing Capacity Utilization
U.S. Capacity Utilization also remained at healthy levels in 2013, increasing a bit toward the end of the year.
Source: Federal Reserve
#A3NETWORK
II. Manufacturing Trends
NAICS Code Industry Industrial Production (Average)321 Wood products 75.7327 Nonmetallic mineral product 73.1331 Primary metal 98.5332 Fabricated metal product 94.6333 Machinery 103.6334 Computer and electronic product 135.7335 Electrical equipment, appliance, and components 87.2
3361-3 Motor vehicles and parts 105.23364-9 Aerospace and misc. transportation equip. 103.7
337 Furniture and related product 71.9311-312 Food, beverage, and tobacco 100.7313-314 Textiles and products 73.0315-316 Apparel and leather goods 57.9
322 Paper 85.3323 Printing and related support activities 75.9324 Petroleum and coal products 97.0325 Chemical 87.2326 Plastics and rubber products 90.1
31-33 Total Manufacturing 97.0
Top Performing Industries in 2013
#A3NETWORK
II. Manufacturing Trends
Semiconductor Market Billings – Americas (Thousands $, 3-Month Moving Averages)
$‐
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$3,000,000
$4,000,000
$5,000,000
$6,000,000
$7,000,000
Jan‐07
Jul‐0
7
Jan‐08
Jul‐0
8
Jan‐09
Jul‐0
9
Jan‐10
Jul‐1
0
Jan‐11
Jul‐1
1
Jan‐12
Jul‐1
2
Jan‐13
Jul‐1
3
2007 20092008 2010 2011 2012 2013
The semiconductor market in the Americas was very strong in 2013.
Source: BEA
#A3NETWORK
II. Manufacturing Trends
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
-1.7%
-12.0%2.9%
-10.1%-6.2% 2.2% 1.1%
-10.1%
-3.8%
-40.5%
8.6%
33.1%
26.4%
8.3%
Source: BEA
U.S. car sales continued to increase in 2013, albeit at a slower rate than 2012.
U.S. Car Sales
#A3NETWORK
III. 2013 Machine Vision Results
AIA Survey – Percentage of Respondants who Expect Positive Growth in 4Q 2013
#A3NETWORK
III. 2013 Machine Vision Results
Markets1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter (Proj.)
Millions $ YoYGrowth Millions $ YoY
Growth Millions $ YoYGrowth Millions $ YoY
Growth
MV Components $60.5 ‐1.1% $69.9 ‐6.8% $74.7 4.9% $68.4 4.9%
MV Systems $406.6 12.6% $445.2 5.1% $454.0 25.6% $435.3 15.5%
Other MV $3.3 6.6% $2.3 ‐27.8% $2.0 ‐26.6% $2.5 ‐17.4%
Total MV Financial Transactions $470.4 10.6% $517.3 3.1% $530.7 21.9% $506.1 13.7%
2013 was a very strong year for Machine Vision in North America. Growth was driven mainly by the large increase in MV System sales.
MV Components = Cameras + Optics + Lighting + Imaging Boards + Software
MV Systems = Smart Cameras + ASMV Systems
Other MV = All Other MV Transactions Including Resale
Total MV Financial Transactions = MV Components + MV Systems + Other MV
North America – Actual 2013 Results by Quarter in Millions $
#A3NETWORK
III. 2013 Machine Vision Results
After contracting in 2012, the Machine Vision market in North America rebounded strongly in 2013.
North America – Actual Results by Year in Millions $
MV Components = Cameras + Optics + Lighting + Imaging Boards + Software
MV Systems = Smart Cameras + ASMV Systems
Other MV = All Other MV Transactions Including Resale
Total MV Financial Transactions = MV Components + MV Systems + Other MV
Markets2010 2011 2012 2013 (Proj.)
Millions $ YoYGrowth Millions $ YoY
Growth Millions $ YoYGrowth Millions $ YoY
Growth
MV Components $230.7 60.5% $280.3 21.5% $272.5 ‐2.8% $273.4 0.3%
MV Systems $1,562.5 59.7% $1,603.4 2.6% $1,522.8 ‐5.0% $1,741.0 14.3%
Other MV $5.0 ‐ $11.0 ‐ $12.0 9.9% $10.1 ‐16.2%
Total MV Financial Transactions $1,798.2 60.2% $1,894.7 5.4% $1,807.4 ‐4.6% $2,024.6 12.0%
#A3NETWORK
III. 2013 Machine Vision Results
‐14.8% ‐0.2%
+12.6%+6.2%
+4.6%+2.1% +1.2%
‐29.2%
+60.2%+5.4%
‐4.6%
+12.0%
$1,000.0
$1,200.0
$1,400.0
$1,600.0
$1,800.0
$2,000.0
$2,200.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
MV Impact of Great
Recession
MV Impact of 2001
Recession
2013 Results – MV Financial Transactions in Millions (USD)
* Projected
In 2013 we saw more growth than expected, primarily driven by a strong increase in Machine Vision System sales.
#A3NETWORK
IV. What to Expect in 2014
Manufacturing is expected to see a net increase in hiring, with the sector expected to add 252,000 jobs in 2014.
2014 Forecasted Annual Percentage Change in Real GDP
#A3NETWORK
IV. What to Expect in 2014
2014 Forecast – MV Financial Transactions in Millions (USD)
* Projected
‐14.8% ‐0.2%
+12.6%+6.2%
+4.6%+2.1% +1.2%
‐29.2%
+60.2%+5.4%
‐4.6%
+12.0%+4.8%
$1,000.0
$1,200.0
$1,400.0
$1,600.0
$1,800.0
$2,000.0
$2,200.0
$2,400.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*2014*
MV Impact of Great
Recession
MV Impact of 2001
Recession
Expect the strong performance to continue through the first half of 2014, then eventually cooling in the second half of the year.
#A3NETWORK
V. Summary and Conclusion
2013 was a strong year for manufacturing worldwide
Policy has eased some concern over Eurozone crisis; Mild growth expected for 2014
2013 was a strong year for Machine Vision
Expect a 2014 to be better than 2013, although some industries may cool later in the year
Machine Vision Financial Transactions in North America are forecasted to grow 4.8% in 2014
#A3NETWORK
Contact Information
Alex ShikanyDirector of Market Analysis900 Victors Way, Suite 140Ann Arbor, MI 48108, USA
Phone: (734) 994-6088
Email: [email protected]
Twitter: @AlexShikany
Web: www.visiononline.org
Top Related