Download - 2014 Job Market Perspectives

Job MarketPerspectives

2014

http://www.adeccousa.com/

2

The U.S. job market:the work continues

2014 Job Market Perspectives | Adecco

3adeccousa.com

Our 2013 edition of Job Market Perspectives noted that the employ-ment market was a work in progress. Jobs had been added — albeit in stronger spurts that occurred in the beginning of 2012 — and the economy was in a better place than it had been for quite some time. The year concluded without any major shifts and with a general sense of optimism.

2013 began in a very similar pattern to 2012 with the addition of 622,000 new jobs in the first quarter. However, the pace of the job market had cooled slightly by the end of the second quarter and the same persistent questions heard in the past emerged — where are the jobs? Is there a chance of a double dip recession? Will the economy ever return to its pre-recession state?

Additionally, a number of other issues — the fiscal cliff, uncertainty around the Affordable Care Act, the timing of decisions facing the Federal Reserve’s policies, and the federal government shutting down from political gridlock on October 1, 2013 — made the economic climate a bit harder for business owners and hiring managers to feel confident about hiring.

Despite numbers that were not as robust or as high as hoped throughout the year, one trend that did emerge and continue was consistency in the economy. As more and more experts analyzed the nation’s unemployment, it became apparent that the return to post-recession hiring levels would not happen overnight. However, more than 1.4 million jobs were added between January and August and preliminary estimates for a healthy holiday season added to an overall sense of progress — a feeling needed to keep the economy moving in the right direction.

2013: The year in review


4

A milestone occurred in September 2013 that received some media attention, but not nearly as much as it did on the day it happened five years before.

On September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers — the fourth largest investment bank in the United States — filed the largest bankruptcy claim in U.S. history. This action played a major role in setting off the financial crisis, causing a need within weeks for the federal

government to bail out other banking institutions, the automotive industry and homeowners with defaulted mortgages.

In the weeks prior to the crisis, the unem-ployment rate had already started the climb upward. While the rate had stayed in the 4 percent range throughout 2007, it had risen to 6.1 percent by September 2008 — trouble had already been brewing for some time.

We now know that economists have pinpointed the beginning of the recession as December 2007, and the end of the recession as June 2009. But, as we’ve passed the fifth anniversary of the begin-ning of the financial crisis and are now approaching the same anniversary of the end of the recession, how much has actually changed? Are we better off now than we were then?

Payrolls add 169,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is 7.3% and there are 11.3 million unemployed Americans.

Most robust payroll addition since the start of the recession. 332,000 jobs are added. The unemployment rate is 7.7%.

The date economists identify as the end of the recession. The unemployment rate is 9.5%.

The month economists identify as the start of the recession. The unemployment rate is 5.0% and there are 7.7 million unemployed Americans.

The biggest drop in total non-farm payrolls. 830,000 jobs are lost in this month. The unemployment rate is 8.7%.

Lehman Brothers files for bankruptcy setting off the start of the financial crisis. In the coming months, the government steps in to keep major banks, the auto industry and homeowners afloat. The unemployment rate is 6.1%.

DEC 07

SEP 08

MAR 09

JUN 09

FEB 13

AUG 13

How far have we come in six years?


5adeccousa.com

The job market by sector

Non-Farm Labor Force

138 136.8

Jobs gained

Jobs lost

Total employed

93

459 830 472

74332 169

MILLION MILLION

DEC 07 SEP 08 MAR 09 JUN 09 FEB 13 AUG 13 DEC 13

DEC 07 DEC 13

Biggest gain 332, FEB 13

Biggest loss 830, MAR 09

IN THOUSANDS

Private Sector Labor Force

115.6 115

Jobs gained

Jobs lost

Total employed

51

429 812 442

87319 152

MILLION MILLION


DEC 07 DEC 13


Biggest loss 821, APR 09

IN THOUSANDS

The number of unemployed persons declined by 490,000 to 10.4 million in December 2013, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 6.7 percent. Over the year, the number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate were down by 1.9 million and 1.2 percentage points, respectively.

— BLS: THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION REPORT, DECEMBER 2013


6


Construction

7.49 5.83

Jobs gained

Jobs lost

Total employed

33 70 162 95 16

48 0

MILLION MILLION


DEC 07 DEC 13


Biggest loss 162, MAR 09

IN THOUSANDS

Manufacturing

13.7 12

Jobs gained

Jobs lost

Total employed

11

83

173 145

923 14

MILLION MILLION


DEC 07 DEC 13

Biggest gain 44, JAN 12

Biggest loss 295, JAN 09

IN THOUSANDS

Retail

15.57 15.38

Jobs gained

Jobs lost

Total employed

5.5 73 95.9 23.8

25.8 44 55.3

MILLION MILLION


DEC 07 DEC 13

Biggest gain 69.6, NOV 12

Biggest loss 122.2, NOV 08

IN THOUSANDS


7adeccousa.com


Biggest gain 44, JAN 12

Biggest gain 69.6, NOV 12

Healthcare services

13.1 14.66

Jobs gained

Jobs lost

Total employed

27.2 13.4 7.2 25.4

6

28.6 32.7

MILLION MILLION


DEC 07 DEC 13

Biggest gain 36.6, SEP 12

Biggest loss 6, DEC 13

IN THOUSANDS

Business & professional services

18 18.25

Jobs gained

Jobs lost

Total employed

39

61 137 105

1993 23

MILLION MILLION


DEC 07 DEC 13

Biggest gain 99, NOV 10

Biggest loss 194, NOV 11

IN THOUSANDS

Financial activities

8.28 7.9

Jobs gained

Jobs lost

Total employed

10 36 44 25

4

3 5

MILLION MILLION


DEC 07 DEC 13

Biggest gain 23, MAR 12

Biggest loss 53, APR 09

IN THOUSANDS

Healthcare services is the only sector that did not lose jobs during the recession


8


Temporary

2.55 2.81

Jobs gained

Jobs lost

Total employed

14.4 25.3 58.3 20.5

27.5 13.1 40.4

MILLION MILLION


DEC 07 DEC 13

Biggest gain 52.9, JAN 10


IN THOUSANDS

IT consulting & management

933 2.91

Jobs gained

Jobs lost

Total employed

12.3 7.2

6.3 4

5.36.6 1.7

MILLION MILLION


DEC 07 DEC 13

Biggest gain 12.3, DEC 07

Biggest loss 9.4, JAN 10

IN THOUSANDS

Legal

1.17 1.12

Jobs gained

Jobs lost

Total employed

2.6 4.2 4.2 5.1 .5 2.7 .8

MILLION MILLION


DEC 07 DEC 13

Biggest gain 4.3, JUL 11

Biggest loss 6, FEB 09

IN THOUSANDS


9adeccousa.com

Temporary



IT consulting & management

Biggest gain 12.3, DEC 07

Biggest loss 9.4, JAN 10

Legal

Biggest gain 4.3, JUL 11

Biggest loss 6, FEB 09

Accounting

966 927.2

Jobs gained

Jobs lost

Total employed

12 .7 .3

6.1 24.7

13.4 2.4

THOUS THOUS


DEC 07 DEC 13

Biggest gain 31, NOV 10

Biggest loss 24.7, DEC 13

IN THOUSANDS

Engineering & architectural services

1.4 1.37

Jobs gained

Jobs lost

Total employed

5.1

10.9 17.8 11.9

5.33.1

.4

MILLION MILLION


DEC 07 DEC 13


Biggest loss 19.5, FEB 09

IN THOUSANDS

Employment in retail trade rose by 55,000 in December. Within the industry, job gains occurred in food and beverage stores (+12,000), clothing and accessories stores (+12,000), general merchandise stores (+8,000), and motor vehicle and parts dealers (+7,000). Retail trade added an average of 32,000 jobs per month in 2013.

— BLS: THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION REPORT, DECEMBER 2013


10

2014outlook

After reviewing economic data from

the last five years, it is apparent how

dire the jobs landscape was from

2007 to 2009 with thousands of jobs

being lost each month. The upturn

seen the last two years is a sign

that prospects are improving. In fact,

economists predict 2014 to be similar

to 2013 in a number of ways.


11adeccousa.com

Overall job market outlook

Experts believe that 2014’s economy will most likely grow at a slightly quicker pace than 2013’s, but the year will not be marked by explosive growth. Payrolls are expected to increase in a pattern similar to what was seen in 2013

— consistent, but not robust, growth.

The majority of economists are forecasting that the pace of hiring in 2014 will be around 200,000 jobs a month, which is slightly higher than the 2013 average.

At this pace, the unemployment rate could potentially fall to 6.8 percent by the end of the year. However, the unemployment rate may sneak up if formerly discouraged, non-looking job seekers begin to look for work or re-enter the workforce.

While an additional 200,000 jobs per month would have been a very welcome sight in 2009, the reality is that Americans have already been waiting longer than previously expected. At this rate, it will take a number of years for the economy to return to pre-recession levels. The upside in this data is that payroll additions have become more consistent, and ultimately this continuity brings stability, which encourages hiring. With the August 2013 data reflecting 42 straight months of private sector growth, there is reason to be optimistic about the future.


12

Where the jobs are by sector

Construction

Retail

Business & Professional Services

Manufacturing

Healthcare

Financial Activities

122,000

380,000

614,000

77,000

208,000

84,000

NEW JOBS ADDED

NEW JOBS ADDED

NEW JOBS ADDED

NEW JOBS ADDED

NEW JOBS ADDED

NEW JOBS ADDED

• Carpentry• Painting• Plumbing• Electricalwork

• Foodandbeveragestores• Furnitureandhomefurnishingstores• Automobiledealers

• Advertising,promotionsandpublicrelations• Humanresources• Informationsecurity

• Plasticandrubberproductsmanufacturing• Woodproductmanufacturing• Transportationequipment• Motorvehiclesandparts

• Personalcare• Homehealthaides• Physicaltherapyassistance

• Creditintermediation• Banking• Insurancecarriers

HOT JOBS

HOT JOBS

HOT JOBS

HOT JOBS

HOT JOBS

HOT JOBS


13adeccousa.com

The health care and social assistance sector will account for almost a third of the projected job growth from 2012 to 2022. Employment in the construction sector is expected to see a large increase, while still not reaching prerecession levels. Manufacturing is projected to experience a slight decline in employment over the projection period.

— BLS: MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW, DECEMBER 2013

Temporary

Legal

Engineering & Architectural Services

Computer Systems Design & IT Consulting & Management

Accounting

247,400

1,000

38,000

113,700

12,700

NEW JOBS ADDED

JOBS LOST

NEW JOBS ADDED

NEW JOBS ADDED

NEW JOBS ADDED

• Professionalsectorpositions• Serviceproducingpositions

• Paralegals• Legalassistants• E-discovery

• Civilengineering• Automateddesign• Structuremaintenance

• Softwaredevelopment• Cybersecurity• Networkinfrastructure

• Certifiedpublicaccountants• Auditing• Compliance

HOT JOBS

HOT JOBS

HOT JOBS

HOT JOBS

HOT JOBS


14

Mountain

Pacific West South Central

MT • ID • WY • NVUT • CO • AZ • NM

WA • OR • CA HI • AK

TX • LA • AR • OK

6.7%

8.0% 6.1%

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

IN-DEMAND SECTORS

IN-DEMAND SECTORS IN-DEMAND SECTORS

HealthcareProfessional & business services

Leisure & hospitalityConstruction

HealthcareEngineering

Green technologyIT

Construction


Customer serviceMachinery operators

Where the jobs are by region

Unemployment data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation Report, November 2013


15adeccousa.com

West North Central

East North Central

New England

East South Central

South Atlantic

Middle Atlantic

ND • SD • MN NE • IA • KS • MO

WI • MI • IL • IN • OH VT • CT • MA NH • ME • RI

MS • AL • TN • KY FL • GA • SC • NC • VA

WV • MD • DE • DCPA • NJ • NY

4.9% 7.9% 6.9%

7.7% 6.7% 7.4%

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

IN-DEMAND SECTORS IN-DEMAND SECTORS IN-DEMAND SECTORS

IN-DEMAND SECTORS IN-DEMAND SECTORS IN-DEMAND SECTORS

Customer serviceTransportation

HealthcareEducation

Customer serviceManufacturing

Administrative supportEngineering

EducationHealthcare

IT

FinanceHealthcare

Professional & business servicesCustomer service


FinanceConstruction

FinanceProfessional & business services

HealthcareIT

Construction


16

Adecco recently polled 500 senior executives — Vice President and above — across a variety of industries within the United States to get their insights on two important issues relating to the jobs landscape: the skills gap and challenges facing their business.

The skills gap

Which of the following do you feel best defines the “gap” in the U.S. workforce skills gap?

Lack of soft skills (i.e., communication, critical thinking, creativity, collaboration) 44%

Lack of technical skills 22%

Lack of strong leadership skills 14%

Lack of computer based technology skills 12%

I don’t think there is a skills gap in the U.S. workforce 8%

Which of the following do you feel is the greatest contributing factor to the skills gap in the U.S. workforce?

U.S. education system doesn’t educate/prepare people with the skills needed for today’s job market

54%

People are not interested in pursuing careers in sectors/fields affected by the skills gap (e.g., science, technology, engineering, math)

23%

Lack of on-the-job training or enrichment opportunities 22%

What are business leaders seeing?


17adeccousa.com

Do you think corporate apprenticeship/ training programs (i.e. one-on-one shadowing, cross training) could help alleviate the skills gap in the U.S. workforce?

Which of the following industries is most affected by the skills gap in the U.S. workforce?

Employers must consider how to set up low-cost training and employee education programs. These could include knowledge transfer between junior and senior staff members, or working with local schools to clearly define what skills your organization needs in its future employees.

Manufacturing 30%

Technology 21%

Professional & Business Services 19%

Engineering 12%

Healthcare Services 11%

Construction 4%

Finance 2%

Leisure & Hospitality 2%

Which of the following is the biggest barrier to creating in-house training programs that could help address the skills gap in the U.S. workforce?

The cost of developing training programs

42%

Not enough personnel to conduct training programs

10%

Executive team doesn’t think it’s a priority

or needed

30%

Employees not interested

in participating in programs

18%

Yes 89%

No 11%


18

Senior executives don’t believe the challenges they face are from high unemployment or skilled workers, but more so federal policies and the high costs attached to labor.

Challenges facing businesses

Which of the following, if any, is a threat to U.S. business as a result of the skills gap in the U.S. workforce?

More investment is going to companies abroad instead of to U.S. companies 64%

Businesses are missing out on growth opportunities 45%

R&D — product development is suffering 34%

Profits are suffering 30%

Which of the following, if any, do you think is a challenge foreign companies face when expanding locations into the U.S.?

High cost of labor in the U.S. 61%

Healthcare costs in the U.S. 37%

U.S. labor regulations 36%

Lack of skilled workers in the U.S. 33%

U.S. union demands 32%

Pension/retirement costs in the U.S. 28%

Lack of demand for products or services offered in the U.S. market 11%

None of the above 5%

Which of the following, do you think is currently the greatest threat to the U.S. economy?

Federal spending 24%

Global competition 22%

High unemployment 20%

Lack of skilled workers to fill jobs 13%

Government regulations 10%

Economic turmoil abroad 8%

Lack of computer based technology skills 3%


19adeccousa.com

More work ahead

As we look back on challenges that have faced the economy and the job market in the last five years, we’re now able to better understand how deep the cuts went. As we continue to recover from these setbacks, it is becoming clearer that, while progress is taking place, complete recovery will take time.

Throughout the year, we’ve seen many of our clients express enough confidence in the economy to move forward on hiring decisions and bring temporary workers on to permanent payrolls; a very encouraging sign that we believe will continue into the next year.

As we look towards 2014, there are a number of positive strides taking place within the job market that all signal a strengthening economy. With nearly four years of private sector payroll additions under the U.S. economy’s belt, many believe that 2014 will build on the growth seen in 2013 with similar, if not slightly higher, job additions, and continued growth in the service producing sectors. The U.S. has seen a number of changes to the economy in the past six years, and it’s finally safe to say that the nation’s jobs landscape is moving in the right direction.

For more information on job market and hiring trends, please visit adeccousa.com or contact your local Adecco representative today.


http://www.adeccousa.com/Employers/salary-guide/Pages/default.aspx

©2014 Adecco

877.8.adeccoadeccousa.com

Adecco Staffing U.S. is the nation’s leading provider of recruiting and workforce solutions.

We partner with small and mid-sized businesses, as well as Fortune 500 companies

across all major industries. And we offer job opportunities and advice to American workers

at every stage of their careers. Adecco has over 400 career centers and, on any given day,

connects 70,000 workers to the best job opportunities across the country, making us one

of America’s largest employers.

We leverage this position of leadership to help individuals continuously improve their

position at work and in life. To be fulfilled, but never complacent. To set their sights higher

and achieve more than they thought possible. Whether your goal is to change careers,

or change the world, we want to help you find what you’re looking for and get more out

of work.

