Q3 STOCK GUIDE
»1920
Advanced Selling Strategies
E X C L U S I V E LY F O R M A R K E T S M I T H M E M B E R S
AUGUST 27, 2019 1:15pm PT / 4:15pm ET
We’re excited to announce that U.S. Investing Champion and Stock Market Wizard Mark Minervini is joining forces with MarketSmith for a special webinar!
Mark will demonstrate how he uses MarketSmith to find new stock ideas and time his trading during market hours. You’ll get actionable intelligence and hear about stocks that Mark has on his watchlist.
Don’t miss this exciting opportunity to learn MarketSmith strategies from a master—register today!
investors.com/mswebinars
DON’T MISS MARK’S ONCE- A-YEAR OCTOBER WORKSHOP, THE MASTER TRADER PROGRAM!Learn advanced buying and selling strategies and trade LIVE alongside Mark and special guest David Ryan. For information, go to www.4stocktraders.com.
FEATURING Mark Minervini
Stock Guide // 2019 Q3
At MarketSmith, we’re big believers in rules-based trading. Rules can help
counteract emotions, which can cloud even the clearest of heads when money
is on the line. In this issue of Stock Guide, we’ll dive into some alternative
selling strategies that go beyond a profit target and a stop-loss. Which
technical signals can alert you when a stock has topped and is likely to reverse?
Check out our feature article, Advanced Selling Strategies, to find out.
For our interview this month, we talked to Chris Gessel, Chief Content Officer
of Investor’s Business Daily®. As the captain of IBD’s Markets Team, Chris fol-
lows the indexes from open to close and tracks hundreds of stocks every day
using MarketSmith. He shared some insights from his decades of experience,
as well as a custom MarketSmith screen for finding new trade ideas.
In the latest edition of Good Trade / Bad Trade, we talked with MarketSmith
Senior Product Coach Arnie Gutierrez about two of his recent trades. While
he booked a nice profit jumping into the legal marijuana industry at the right
time, he also got burned by the fast-moving and volatile action of a hot tech
IPO. Arnie will break down his buy and sell points, how he held the stocks and
what he learned from each trade.
As always, if you have any questions or comments about your investing
research or any MarketSmith features, please call one of our product coaches
at (800) 831-2525 or email us at [email protected]. We’re here to
help you make more money in the market.
Best Returns,
The MarketSmith Team
E X C L U S I V E LY F O R M A R K E T S M I T H M E M B E R S
AUGUST 27, 2019 1:15pm PT / 4:15pm ET
We’re excited to announce that U.S. Investing Champion and Stock Market Wizard Mark Minervini is joining forces with MarketSmith for a special webinar!
Mark will demonstrate how he uses MarketSmith to find new stock ideas and time his trading during market hours. You’ll get actionable intelligence and hear about stocks that Mark has on his watchlist.
Don’t miss this exciting opportunity to learn MarketSmith strategies from a master—register today!
investors.com/mswebinars
DON’T MISS MARK’S ONCE- A-YEAR OCTOBER WORKSHOP, THE MASTER TRADER PROGRAM!Learn advanced buying and selling strategies and trade LIVE alongside Mark and special guest David Ryan. For information, go to www.4stocktraders.com.
FEATURING Mark Minervini
S & P 500 INDEXCLOSE 2941.76
2916.502940.91
2815.152800.18
2954.13
2691.99
2603.54
2346.58
2722.27 2728.812728.81
50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE
200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE
2350
2450
2550
2650
2750
2850
2950
3050
3150
DAILY VOLUME AND 50-DAY AVERAGE DAILY VOLUME LINE
500 M
850 M
1.4 B
2.5 B
28143117319522822825112814301621952172410271329
JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 2019DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJUL
NASDAQ COMPOSITECLOSE 8006.24
7933.31
8133.30 8107.38
7486.51
8176.08
7419.56
7604.24
6922.836830.76
6190.16
7332.92 7292.217292.2150 DAY MOVING AVERAGE
200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE
6100
6300
6500
6700
6900
7100
7300
7500
7700
7900
8100
8300
8500
8700
DAILY VOLUME AND 50-DAY AVERAGE DAILY VOLUME LINE
850 M
1.6 B
2.5 B
4 B
28143117319522822825112814301621952172410271329
JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 2019DECNOVOCTSEPAUGJUL
4
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3
S & P 500 Index
NASDAQ Composite
5
*All screen results are computer-generated and were run on June 28, 2019.
Market Charts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Feature Article: Advanced Selling Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
A Conversation with Chris Gessel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Bigger Better IPOs* . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Zoom Video Comm Cl A (ZM) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Zscaler Inc (ZS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Docusign Inc (DOCU) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Anaplan Inc (PLAN) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Avalara Inc (AVLR) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Smartsheet Inc Cl A (SMAR) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Pinterest Inc Cl A (PINS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Beyond Meat Inc (BYND) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Good Trade/Bad Trade: Arnie Gutierrez . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Institutional-Quality Movers* . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
eHealth Inc (EHTH) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
The Trade Desk Inc Cl A (TTD) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
CyberArk Software Ltd (CYBR) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Globant SA (GLOB) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd (KL) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Universal Display Corp (OLED) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Features Highlight: Smart Alerts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Connect with Us . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Table of Contents
6
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3 l Feature Article
It’s important to remember that buying stocks should be based on a
combination of fundamental and technical factors, while selling stocks should be based primarily on technical factors. Two of the most famous
and successful sell rules from William O’Neil’s How to Make Money in Stocks are:
1. Sell a stock offensively when it’s up 20-25%
2. Sell defensively when it falls 7-8% below your buy point
These selling rules will serve you well for maximizing gains and
minimizing risk.
That’s not to say that alternative selling strategies shouldn’t be utilized.
These strategies take advantage of the fact that you, as an individual
investor, can respond much more rapidly to technical factors than can
a large institution. While it can take institutions weeks or months to
accumulate enough shares for a position, you can buy or sell a full position
in milliseconds without affecting the overall stock price.
Here are a few technical indicators you can use as early signs that you
might want to sell some or all of a position.
Breaking below the 21-day moving average line. In a confirmed uptrend,
most high-quality growth stocks will hold above their 21-day line when
they’re on a strong run. If a stock breaks below its 21-day line on above-
average volume, it’s likely on its way down to the 50-day line. Selling at
least part of your position will lock in some gains.
Breaking below the 50-day moving average line. This is similar to the
21-day line strategy above, but it indicates a stronger sell signal. Many of
the MarketSmith Coaches will use a 50-day line break on heavy volume as
an indicator to sell the remainder of their position.
Feature Article:
Advanced Selling Strategies
7
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3
Channel Line Break. This
happens when a stock has set
up its general trading range
during a steady run, then
starts behaving atypically
well. This can mean it’s a
good time to book some
profits, as the stock may have
topped.
Channel Line Break
Wrench Icon
Moving Averages
TIP: To turn on the 21-day moving average line in MarketSmith, click the Wrench Icon above the Chart Window and select “Moving Averages” from the drop-down menu. In the Daily Moving Averages section, choose “21” for either the green line or the pink line. This will be your 21-day line on the chart.
50-day
8
Chris Gessel has been covering the market
for Investor’s Business Daily® since 1996.
From 1999 to 2004, he was the primary
author of The Big Picture, IBD’s premier
market analysis column. As IBD’s Chief
Content Officer, he directs market, mutual
fund, company and technology coverage,
and serves on its executive committee.
MarketSmith recently sat down with Chris
to talk about market trends, 2019 IPOs
and technical analysis.
Q: Let’s talk current market. Which sectors are you particularly bullish on as
we head into Q3?
I’m watching semiconductors and software. Software has been the
big leader this year. Look at Veeva (VEEV) — Leaderboard took a 20%
gain on this, but it just keeps going. Other names like Zscaler (ZS)
and CyberArk (CYBR) are setting up nicely after their initial bullish
breakouts. There are just so many software stocks working well.
Cybersecurity software is where most of the action is happening. CYBR,
ZS and Rapid7 (RPD) are some names to watch in that group. Okta
(OKTA) is not profitable, but it’s having a big move. RPD is one I would
keep an eye on. It’s just now turning profitable, so it doesn’t have the long
track record of profitability favored by CAN SLIM®-style traders, but it’s
on my watchlist.
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3 l Q & A: Chris Gessel
A Conversation with Chris Gessel
“If a trade deal gets done, I would expect [the semiconductor sector] to continue higher.”
9
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3
Semiconductors are interesting right now. The sector rallied off the
bottom of the December correction with the rest of the market. Aside
from a brief pullback in March, this sector was just heading up and up
until late April. This is about the time that Xilinx (XLNX) topped.
Xilinx, at the time, was the leading chip stock. It had broken out on
earnings the previous quarter and was doing well. Then it missed on Q1
earnings and gapped down 17% the next day. That day, April 25, kicked
off the correction in chips, which you can see by looking at SMH [an
ETF based on the semiconductor index]. It was kind of the canary in the
coalmine for the Nasdaq.
What’s been nice lately is that chips have rallied off the bottom and are
gaining steam. Remember, the biggest thing affecting the market right
now is the trade war with China. If a trade deal gets done, I would expect
chips to continue higher. They were an early leader before and could be a
leader again.
Pictured: SMH, an ETF that tracks the semiconductor index. Notice the steep decline starting in April 2019 and subsequent strong recovery.
VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH)
10
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3 l Q & A: Chris Gessel
Q: What are some cautionary signs that tell you a market uptrend isn’t
“working” like it should?
The first thing to look for is when we’re just starting a confirmed uptrend.
The first line in the sand is the low of the follow-through day. I would put
an alert at the bottom of that day. Our research shows that if you close
under the low of the FTD it doesn’t necessarily mean the rally is going to
fail, but at the very least, it means you’re going to have some trouble for
a while.
The other thing is if individual stock breakouts aren’t working, that’s a
warning sign. You want leaders to be acting well during an uptrend.
The next real test for the Nasdaq and the S&P: Can they take out their
recent highs? The Nasdaq has had some bigger swings, but if you look at
the S&P, it peaked in January 2018 at 2872. We’re only 3% above that
level almost 18 months later. The broad market has really struggled to
make new highs. If we can get a clear move above the old highs, that will
be a really positive sign for the uptrend.
Q: Which IPOs have surprised you most this year, both positively and
negatively?
I love IPOs. I’ve talked about them a lot on the Investing with IBD®
podcast, and really when anyone gives me a moment to speak.
At least once a week, I go back and look at all the companies that have
come public in the last month. I sort them by date to see the most recent.
Since so many IPOs these days don’t have earnings, what I do look for is
really strong sales growth.
Chewy (CHWY) is the latest example. It’s still losing money, but it’s got
$3.5 billion in sales. So this is not your average startup. They’re really
growing sales. In the last quarter, sales growth accelerated from 59% to
67% and they had their first $1 billion quarter.
11
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3
CHWY is a stock I would really be
watching. I would put an alert on
the high of the first day of trading
and hopefully it forms an IPO base.
They can be as short as 5 days,
though I prefer to see them longer
than that.
Some of the best trades, even on a
short-term basis, come from these
IPO bases. CrowdStrike (CRWD)
is another one; it’s growing sales in
the triple digits. Zoom (ZM) is one I
was pleasantly surprised by.
Now, on the other end of things,
it did not surprise me that Uber
(UBER) struggled right after it
went public. This idea of companies coming in at mega-cap status, $75
billion in this case… I don’t know. Sales growth has also slowed into the
20% range. They don’t have a path to profitability, which really limits the
immediate outlook.
This is why with unprofitable IPOs, unless there’s a clear path to
profitability and you’ve got high conviction, they’re much better short-
term trades where maybe you just hold them above the 10-day line, or
when it hits 20% you take half-profits to avoid giving it all back.
Q: In this issue, we’re covering advanced selling strategies. What are a few of
the technical signals that tell you it might be time to shrink or sell a position?
If you’ve got a stock that’s fundamentally strong, it’s acting really well,
and you’re up 20% but don’t want to take your profits just yet, let it ride
the 10-day moving average line. Wait until you get a close below that line
Pictured: Zoom Video Communications (ZM), a software IPO stock that Chris has been watching closely since it started trading publicly.
Zoom Video Comm CI A (ZM)
12
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3 l Q & A: Chris Gessel
before you take profits. If you’ve got strong conviction, maybe you just
sell 30% or 50%.
Now let’s talk about high-conviction stocks that have a high probability
of pulling back. No one wants to give up on their biggest winners, but it’s
not a bad idea to hedge. For example, what if you’re holding one of these
“super stocks” as the market is going into a correction? It’s logical to
expect a pullback.
What I’ll do is hedge by buying put options on the stock to protect my
profit if the stock starts moving downward. I typically look for puts with
three or more months of time value with a delta of 0.50. If I want to
completely hedge my position, I buy twice as many puts as shares.
Think of it this way: you already have a huge profit on the position. If it
goes up, you’re still making money on the stock, although not as much
because of the put. If it goes sideways, that’s not a big problem, you’re
still up big on the stock.
Now let’s say the stock turns into a pumpkin and dives down. Instead of
losing your profit, you’re making even more money with the put than you
are losing on the stock because the delta is rising as the put gains value. If
the stock gets support at, say, the 50-day line, you can book the put profit
and ride the stock back up.
Q: One last question: I hear you’re an avid deep-sea fisherman. Which requires
more patience, fishing or investing?
Investing. Because if the fish aren’t biting you can always start drinking.
13
Look for newer stocks with strong sales
This screen looks for IPO stocks using Chris Gessel’s sales criteria, since many IPOs don’t turn a profit early on.
Bigger Better IPOs
COMPANY (SYMBOL) INDUSTRY GROUP RS RATING PAGE
Zoom Video Comm Cl A (ZM) Computer Sftwr-Enterprse 97 14
Zscaler Inc (ZS) Computer Sftwr-Security 96 14
Docusign Inc (DOCU) Computer Sftwr-Enterprse 91 15
Anaplan Inc (PLAN) Computer Sftwr-Enterprse 88 15
Avalara Inc (AVLR) Comp Sftwr-Spec Enterprs 86 16
Smartsheet Inc Cl A (SMAR) Computer Sftwr-Enterprse 83 16
Pinterest Inc Cl A (PINS) Internet-Content 77 17
Beyond Meat Inc (BYND) Food-Meat Products 72 17
Visit Investors.com/MSStockGuide to load the criteria for this and other
Stock Guide screens directly into your MarketSmith screener.
*All screen results are computer-generated and were run on June 28, 2019. This screen can also be found on marketsmith.com in shared screens.
Screen created by Irusha Peiris, MarketSmith Product Coach
14
ZOOM VIDEO COMM CL A(ZM ) NASDAQ 32.1 SHRS / 31.8 FLT / AVG VOL0 $88.79(OH -17%)COMPUTER SFTWR-ENTERPRSE zoom.com
6/19 EXPECTS Q2 FY20 NON-GAAP EARNINGS OF $0.01 TO $0.02 PER SHARE ON REVENUES OF $129 MIL TO $130 MIL.
SHORT INT 2.5 DAYS +7%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 2.0EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATEEARNINGS STABEPS RANK 76PE 1505 (82.2XS&P)5 YR PE 2997 - 3708
DEBT 0%NEW CEOTIMELINESS AACC/DIST BSMR RATING C
159.03 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D 10.0%RET ON EQUITY 5%CASH FLOW $1.1
FUNDSBANKSMGMT 1%ALPHA N/ABETA N/A
96
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
PRICE SCALE
97COMPOSITE RATING$36.00IPO 4/18/1913$14151617 -0.01 $18 -0.0119 0.0320 0.03EST +0% ↑
EARNINGS (JAN) HI LOShopify SHOP 99 75Akerna KERN 99 38Paycom PAYC 98 96Coupa Soft COUP 98 76ProsHldg PRO 98 45
GROUP REL STR 99 RS EPS
281431173195228228251128143016219521724102713JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 19DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.01 VS -0.01#+200%90.2 VS 37.9 +138%N/A N/A
0.01 VS -0.01#+200%90.2 VS 37.9 +138%N/A N/A
0.01 VS -0.01#+200%90.2 VS 37.9 +138%N/A N/A
0.03 VS -0.01#+400%122.0 VS 60.1 +103%N/A 3708X-- 2997X
EPS DUE 8/29 QUARTER ENDED JUL 31,18 QUARTER ENDED OCT 31,18 QUARTER ENDED JAN 31,19 QUARTER ENDED APR 30,19
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
1.5M
4M
10M
ZSCALER INC(ZS ) NASDAQ 125.7 SHRS / 60.3 FLT / AVG VOL2.43MIL $76.64(OH -6%)COMPUTER SFTWR-SECURITY zscaler.comOPERATES A MASSIVE, GLOBAL CLOUD SECURITY ARCHITECTURE, DELIVERING THE ENTIRE GATEWAY SECURITY STACK
5/19 EXPECTS Q4 FY19 ADJUSTED EARNINGS OF $0.01 TO $0.02 PER SHARE ON REVENUES OF $81 MIL TO $83 MIL.
SHORT INT 2.9 DAYS -20%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 1.2EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATEEARNINGS STABEPS RANK 76PE 775 (42.6XS&P)5 YR PE 4908 - 7294
DEBT 0%NEW CEOTIMELINESS AACC/DIST CSMR RATING D
40.09 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D 20.7%RET ON EQUITY N/ACASH FLOW $0.02
FUNDS 21%BANKS 0%MGMT 27%ALPHA 0.3BETA 2.02
42.63
48.24
42.4844.00
72.94
80.38
33.90 33.0030.72
34.21
60.02
65.3065.30
98
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
PRICE SCALE
95COMPOSITE RATING$16.00IPO 3/16/1813$1415 -0.11 $16 -0.2317 -0.2618 -0.20 48 2419 0.18EST ↑20 0.19EST +6% ↑
EARNINGS (JUL) HI LOOkta A OKTA 99 12Digimrc DMRC 98 19CybArkSftw CYBR 97 99Zix ZIXI 97 70Rapid7 RPD 97 63
GROUP REL STR 94 RS EPS
281431173195228228251128143016219521724102713JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 19DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
-0.05 VS -0.08 N/A56.2 VS 36.5 +54%N/A N/A
0.01 VS -0.06#+117%63.3 VS 39.9 +59%N/A N/A
0.09 VS -0.05#+280%74.3 VS 45.0 +65%N/A N/A
0.05 VS -0.04#+225%79.1 VS 49.2 +61%N/A 7294X-- 4908X
EPS DUE 9/5 QUARTER ENDED JUL 31,18 QUARTER ENDED OCT 31,18 QUARTER ENDED JAN 31,19 QUARTER ENDED APR 30,19
R S LINE VS SP500 VOLUME
400K
1.2M
3.5M
Zoom Video Comm Cl A (ZM)
Zscaler Inc (ZS)
15
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3DOCUSIGN INC(DOCU) NASDAQ 173.8 SHRS / 135.6 FLT / AVG VOL2.59MIL $49.71(OH -27%)COMPUTER SFTWR-ENTERPRSE DocuSign.comPROVIDES E-SIGNATURE SOLUTION THAT ENABLES BUSINESSES TO DIGITALLY PREPARE, EXECUTE, AND ACT ON AGREEMENTS.
6/19 EXPECTS Q2 FY20 REVENUES OF $218 MIL TO $222 MIL.
SHORT INT 3.5 DAYS -14%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 1.1EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATEEARNINGS STABEPS RANK 84PE 298 (16.2XS&P)5 YR PE 463 - 3294
DEBT 71%NEW CEOTIMELINESS BACC/DIST CSMR RATING B
14.06 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D 26.5%RET ON EQUITY 13%CASH FLOW $0.58
FUNDS 35%BANKS 0%MGMT 14%ALPHA -0.02BETA 1.61
68.35
43.35
59.62 58.3756.4256.42
50.06
38.2835.06 36.25
51.14 50.92 50.02
45.67
48
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
PRICE SCALE
89COMPOSITE RATING$29.00IPO 4/27/1813$141516 -0.79 $17 -0.7418 -0.08 68 3519 0.1120 0.19EST +73% ↓
EARNINGS (JAN) HI LOShopify SHOP 99 75Akerna KERN 99 38Paycom PAYC 98 96Coupa Soft COUP 98 76ProsHldg PRO 98 45
GROUP REL STR 99 RS EPS
281431173195228228251128143016219521724102713JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 19DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.03 VS -0.01#+400%167.0 VS 125.5 +33%N/A N/A
0.01 VS -0.03#+133%178.4 VS 130.6 +37%N/A 3294X-- 1914X
0.06 VS 0.01 +500%199.7 VS 148.9 +34%N/A 2258X-- 604X
0.07 VS 0.01 +600%214.0 VS 155.8 +37%N/A 966X-- 463X
EPS DUE 9/5 QUARTER ENDED JUL 31,18 QUARTER ENDED OCT 31,18 QUARTER ENDED JAN 31,19 QUARTER ENDED APR 30,19
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
700K
2M
6M
ANAPLAN INC(PLAN) NYSE 129.2 SHRS / 80.1 FLT / AVG VOL2.51MIL $50.47(OH -4%)COMPUTER SFTWR-ENTERPRSE anaplan.comPROVIDES CLOUD-BASED PLANNING PLATFORM THAT HELPS TO CONNECT ORGANIZATIONS AND PEOPLE TO MAKE DECISIONS.
5/19 RAISED FY20 REVENUES TO $326 MIL TO $331 MIL.
SHORT INT 1.3 DAYS -10%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 1.3EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATEEARNINGS STABEPS RANK 28PE5 YR PE
DEBT 0%NEW CEOTIMELINESS AACC/DIST ASMR RATING D
21.20 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D 20.4%RET ON EQUITY N/ACASH FLOW $-0.42
FUNDS 9%BANKS 0%MGMT 37%ALPHA 0.39BETA 1.17
27.3029.70
41.76
20.60
23.37
33.59
98
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
10
20
30
40
50
PRICE SCALE
87COMPOSITE RATING$17.00IPO 10/12/1813$141516 -0.44 $17 -0.3218 -0.34 29 2019 -0.6220 -0.59EST ↑
EARNINGS (JAN) HI LOShopify SHOP 99 75Akerna KERN 99 38Paycom PAYC 98 96Coupa Soft COUP 98 76ProsHldg PRO 98 45
GROUP REL STR 99 RS EPS
281431173195228228251128143016219521724102713JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 19DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
-0.15 VS -0.06 N/A57.8 VS 41.1 +41%N/A N/A
-0.15 VS -0.08 N/A62.0 VS 44.2 +40%N/A N/A
-0.13 VS -0.13 N/A69.3 VS 46.3 +49%N/A N/A
-0.16 VS -0.19 N/A75.8 VS 51.6 +47%N/A N/A
EPS DUE 8/29 QUARTER ENDED JUL 31,18 QUARTER ENDED OCT 31,18 QUARTER ENDED JAN 31,19 QUARTER ENDED APR 30,19
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
180K
800K
3.5M
Docusign Inc (DOCU)
Anaplan Inc (PLAN)
AVALARA INC(AVLR) NYSE 73.5 SHRS / 42.6 FLT / AVG VOL1.20MIL $72.20(OH -4%)COMP SFTWR-SPEC ENTERPRS avalara.comDEVELOPS CLOUD-BASED SOFTWARE SOLUTIONS DESIGNED TO IMPROVE ACCURACY AND EFFICIENCY BY AUTOMATING
2/19 NAMED AMIT MATHRADAS COO.
SHORT INT 2.4 DAYS -33%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 1.2EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATEEARNINGS STABEPS RANK 33PE5 YR PE
DEBT 0%NEW CEOTIMELINESS BACC/DIST BSMR RATING D
48.44 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D 19.1%RET ON EQUITY N/ACASH FLOW $-0.56
FUNDS 21%BANKS 0%MGMT 21%ALPHA 0.2BETA 1.38
44.90
32.82
53.88
74.90 75.33
32.10
28.09 28.89
53.92
63.7663.76
98
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
PO
PPO
20
30
40
50
60
70
PRICE SCALE
85COMPOSITE RATING$24.00IPO 6/15/1813$1415 -1.18 $16 -0.8817 -0.5818 -0.68 59 2819 -0.18EST ↑20 0.04EST ↓
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOAtlassian TEAM 97 99Appfolio APPF 97 22ClarivateA CCC 96 5Veritone VERI 95 24MicroFocus MFGP 94 99
GROUP REL STR 89 RS EPS
281431173195228228251128143016219521724102713JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 19DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
-0.19 VS -0.17 N/A63.7 VS 50.9 +25%N/A N/A
-0.14 VS -0.09 N/A69.5 VS 55.3 +26%N/A N/A
-0.19 VS -0.15 N/A76.9 VS 58.0 +33%N/A N/A
-0.01 VS -0.16 N/A85.0 VS 61.4 +38%N/A N/A
EPS DUE 8/9 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,18 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,18 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,18 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,19
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
138K
450K
1.5M
SMARTSHEET INC CL A(SMAR) NYSE 87.1 SHRS / 84.5 FLT / AVG VOL1.94MIL $48.40(OH -4%)COMPUTER SFTWR-ENTERPRSE smartsheet.comPROVIDES CLOUD-BASED PLATFORM FOR EXECUTION OF WORK TO OVER 95,000 CUSTOMERS.
6/19 EXPECTS Q2 FY20 NON-GAAP LOSS OF $0.15 TO $0.16 PER SHARE ON REVENUES OF $63.0 MIL TO $64.0 MIL.
SHORT INT 1.9 DAYS -3%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 2.3EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATEEARNINGS STABEPS RANK 17PE5 YR PE
DEBT 1%NEW CEOTIMELINESS BACC/DIST ASMR RATING D
33.45 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D 33.1%RET ON EQUITY N/ACASH FLOW $-0.17
FUNDS 20%BANKS 0%MGMT 2%ALPHA 0.26BETA 1.72
33.98
28.25
49.04
20.5022.16
20.3422.01
36.7637.6737.67
97
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
PO
PPO
10
20
30
40
50
PRICE SCALE
82COMPOSITE RATING$15.00IPO 4/27/1813$141516 -0.14 $17 -0.1518 -0.29 33 1819 -0.3720 -0.56EST ↑
EARNINGS (JAN) HI LOShopify SHOP 99 75Akerna KERN 99 38Paycom PAYC 98 96Coupa Soft COUP 98 76ProsHldg PRO 98 45
GROUP REL STR 99 RS EPS
281431173195228228251128143016219521724102713JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 19DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
-0.08 VS -0.07 N/A42.4 VS 26.7 +59%N/A N/A
-0.11 VS -0.09 N/A46.9 VS 29.4 +59%N/A N/A
-0.07 VS -0.07 N/A52.2 VS 33.0 +58%N/A N/A
-0.12 VS -0.11 N/A56.2 VS 36.3 +55%N/A N/A
EPS DUE 9/4 QUARTER ENDED JUL 31,18 QUARTER ENDED OCT 31,18 QUARTER ENDED JAN 31,19 QUARTER ENDED APR 30,19
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
132K
500K
1.8M
16
Avalara Inc (AVLR)
Smartsheet Inc Cl A (SMAR)
PINTEREST INC CL A(PINS) NYSE 86.3 SHRS / 85.4 FLT / AVG VOL0 $27.22(OH -22%)INTERNET-CONTENT pinterest.comPROVIDES A VISUAL DISCOVERY PLATFORM THAT HELPS USERS TO DISCOVER IDEAS FOR VARIOUS PROJECTS AND INTERESTS
5/19 EXPECTS 2019 REVENUES OF $1.055 BIL TO $1.080 BIL.
SHORT INT 1.3 DAYS +23%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 1.8EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATEEARNINGS STABEPS RANK 54PE5 YR PE
DEBT 0%NEW CEOTIMELINESS CACC/DIST BSMR RATING D
16.96 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D 33.3%RET ON EQUITY N/ACASH FLOW $-0.43
FUNDSBANKSMGMT 1%ALPHA N/ABETA N/A
29.81
23.60
82
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
BARRONS 4/15/19
20
25
30
35
PRICE SCALE
73COMPOSITE RATING$19.00IPO 4/18/1913$141516 -0.34 $17 -0.2418 -0.1119 -0.21EST ↓20 ↓
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOSea Ltd A SE 99 11DHI Grp DHX 98 18Snap A SNAP 97 46Match Grou MTCH 96 88Opera Ltd OPRA 96 37
GROUP REL STR 63 RS EPS
281431173195228228251128143016219521724102713JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 19DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
-0.07 VS -0.07 N/A161.2 VS 101.1 +59%N/A N/A
-0.03 VS -0.07 N/A190.2 VS 116.0 +64%N/A N/A
0.09 VS 0.01 +800%273.2 VS 173.4 +58%N/A N/A
-0.07 VS -0.09 N/A201.9 VS 131.4 +54%N/A N/A
EPS DUE 7/28 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,18 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,18 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,18 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,19
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
2.5M
8M
25M
BEYOND MEAT INC(BYND) NASDAQ 58.7 SHRS / 32.9 FLT / AVG VOL0 $160.68(OH -20%)FOOD-MEAT PRODUCTS beyondmeat.comMANUFACTURES, MARKETS, AND SELLS PLANT-BASED MEAT PRODUCTS IN THE UNITED STATES AND INTERNATIONALLY.
6/19 EXPECTS 2019 REVENUES OF ABOUT $210 MIL.
SHORT INT .6 DAYS -19%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 1.8EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATEEARNINGS STABEPS RANK 14PE5 YR PE
DEBT 40%NEW CEOTIMELINESS CACC/DISTSMR RATING D
121.34 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 4.6XR&D 10.9%RET ON EQUITY N/ACASH FLOW $-0.42
FUNDSBANKSMGMT 16%ALPHA N/ABETA N/A
201.88
99
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
PRICE SCALE
71COMPOSITE RATING$25.00IPO 5/02/1913$141516 -0.43 $17 -0.5218 -0.5119 -0.27EST ↑20 0.07EST ↑
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOBRF SA BRFS 96 63PilgrmsP PPC 94 16TysonFds TSN 93 70SandrFarms SAFM 90 15Pingtan Mr PME 86 5
GROUP REL STR 99 RS EPS
281431173195228228251128143016219521724102713JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 19DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
-0.13 VS -0.19 N/A17.4 VS 5.6 +212%N/A N/A
-0.16 VS -0.12 N/A26.3 VS 9.4 +180%N/A N/A
-0.13 VS -0.12 N/A31.5 VS 11.5 +175%N/A N/A
-0.11 VS -0.10 N/A40.2 VS 12.8 +215%N/A N/A
EPS DUE 7/28 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,18 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,18 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,18 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,19
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
4M
8M
17
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3Pinterest Inc Cl A (PINS)
Beyond Meat Inc (BYND)
18
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3 l Good Trade/Bad Trade
In this edition of Good Trade / Bad Trade,
MarketSmith Coach Arnie Gutierrez shared a couple of his recent trades—one
winner and one loser—and told us what he
learned from each. Pull up the charts for
CGC and DBX and follow along to see how
you would have handled these trades!
GOOD TRADE: CANOPY GROWTH CORPORATION (CGC)
The Timeframe: August 2018 – October 2018
Stock Background: Canopy is a story play, plain and simple. I had been
researching the legal marijuana industry for stock ideas. As more and
more states (and entire countries like Canada) legalize marijuana for
medical and recreational use, this market will continue to grow to satisfy
huge new demand.
CGC is positioned as one of the early leaders in this field. Other early
leading stocks in this industry, like TLRY and CRON, were getting a lot
of headlines at the time. CGC, however, looked like they had the best
plan for sustained growth: they acquired major competitors to increase
their market share and brought in senior executives from companies like
Amazon and Walmart.
Technical Picture: Canopy Growth went public in late May 2018. Because
of the fundamental story, I had it on my watchlist from day one. I monitored
it as it built a cup base with a buy point at 36.65. I like to set price alerts for
a dollar below the pivot, which you can do in MarketSmith by hovering over
a base pattern, right-clicking and picking “Set Alert.” Then you just subtract
$1 from the pivot price, turn on email notifications and click “Done.”
Good Trade/Bad Trade
The Trader: Arnie Gutierrez, MarketSmith Coach
19
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3
Following CGC’s August 14 earnings report, the stock gapped up over
30% the next day. Seeing gaps up within the base, especially on really
high volume, showed me the stock had some serious power heading
toward the pivot.
My Buy Point: August 20, 2018 at 37. CGC quickly hit the 36.55 buy
point on huge volume (+357%) and I bought in.
How I Held It: This was an easy one to hold—at first. I watched as it rode
the 10-day moving average line up for a couple weeks. A gain over 25%
in just a few weeks showed me this was a prime candidate for the 8-week
hold rule, so that’s what I did. It got really hard to hold on September 13
during a huge drop. CGC pierced the 21-day line in big volume but closed
above it, though it gave back over 13% in the process. I still wanted to give
it more room based on the story, so I held.
My Sell Point: October 19, 2018 at 46. CGC broke down through the
50-day line on above-average volume, which was my cue to sell. This was
the 4th day in a row with a big loss, so that only reinforced the fact that I
should book my profits on this trade. I still liked the story, but the technical
indicators were too loud to ignore. It went on to close below my original
buy point just 10 days later, so I don’t regret the move.
My 3 Takeaways:
• “Blue skyscrapers” (gains on really high volume) coming out of a base
indicate high potential for a strong breakout.
• As a stock moves up more and more, do more research on it. I felt this
stock was the strongest of the legal marijuana industry, giving me
confidence to keep holding.
• Watch for technical sell signals before you give all your profits back.
When CGC broke the 50-day, I walked away and cashed in my chips.
20
BAD TRADE: DROPBOX (DBX)
The Timeframe: June 2018 – July 2018
Stock Background: Dropbox was one of the bigger-name tech IPOs from
2018. They provide cloud storage to over 500 million users across 180
countries. I was familiar with the product, since I personally use it, but
I was also aware that the product isn’t exactly unique. Competitors like
Box (BOX), Microsoft (MSFT) OneDrive, Google (GOOGL) Drive and
Amazon (AMZN) Drive can all give DBX a well-financed fight in the cloud
storage arena.
As a rule, I don’t buy IPO stocks on day one; I wait for a base to form
before buying. IPOs can be very volatile, almost speculative, so I prefer
ones that are already showing profitability. In their first earnings report
as a public company, Dropbox had earnings per share of 0.08. That’s not
huge by any means, but it is positive, and a heck of a lot better than some
other tech IPOs (looking at you, UBER and LYFT).
Technical Picture: Dropbox started building a 9-week consolidation
base in Mid-April 2018, less than a month after going public. The base
featured low volume and lots of tight price ranges—things you really
want to see in a base. Because of the nice technical setup and the story, I
had it high on my watchlist.
My Buy Point: June 14, 2018 at 35. When DBX blasted through a 34.93
buy point on sky-high volume (+719%), I bought a position.
How I Held It: Four days later, I was already up over 20%. That’s what
you call a nice jump. Now what I should have done was sell on June 18
when I would have been up almost 25% at the intraday high. That’s the
classic William O’Neil sell rule: take profits at 20-25%. But I got greedy
and decided to hold for a bigger run.
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3 l Good Trade/Bad Trade
21
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3
My Sell Point: July 5, 2018 at 31.50. Most stocks will retest the pivot
price after a breakout. DBX didn’t just retest it; it broke through the
pivot on June 22 like somebody dropped an anvil. I sold my position on
July 5 when it pierced the 50-day line.
My 3 Takeaways:
• My big mistake was not taking 25% profits when I had them. I turned
a winner into a loser.
• Month-old IPOs are not known for slow and steady gains. Again,
don’t be afraid to take profits and buy back in later, if a good setup
presents itself.
• Especially with IPOs, using technical sell signals (like retesting the pivot
or breaking the 21-/50-day lines) can help prevent a complete roundtrip.
Sell point: 31.50Reason: Broke 50-day line
Buy point: 35Reason: Breakout on huge volume
Dropbox Inc CI A (DBX)
22
Find high-quality stocks with strong price action
This screen looks for stocks with the kind of fundamentals favored by institutions, plus strong technical traits like a 90+ Relative Strength Rating and high average volume.
Institutional-Quality Movers
COMPANY (SYMBOL) INDUSTRY GROUP RS RATING PAGE
eHealth Inc (EHTH) Insurance-Brokers 99 23
The Trade Desk Inc Cl A (TTD) Comml Svcs-Advertising 99 23
CyberArk Software Ltd (CYBR) Computer Sftwr-Security 98 24
Globant SA (GLOB) Computer-Tech Services 98 24
Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd (KL) Mining-Gold/Silver/Gems 98 25
Universal Display Corp (OLED) Elec-Misc Products 98 25
Visit Investors.com/MSStockGuide to load the criteria for this and other
Stock Guide screens directly into your MarketSmith screener.
*All screen results are computer-generated and were run on June 28, 2019. This screen can also be found on marketsmith.com in shared screens.
Screen created by Arnie Gutierrez, MarketSmith Product Coach
23
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3eHealth Inc (EHTH)
The Trade Desk Inc Cl A (TTD)
EHEALTH INC(EHTH) NASDAQ 22.6 SHRS / 21.5 FLT / AVG VOL533250 $86.10(OH 0%)INSURANCE-BROKERS ehealth.comHEALTH INSURANCE BROKERS FOR INDIVIDUALS, FAMILIES/SMALL BUSINESSES VIA 6 WEBSITES IN 50 STATES, D.C./CHINA.
4/19 RAISED 2019 ADJUSTED EARNINGS GUIDANCE TO $1.54 TO $1.73 PER DILUTED SHARE ON REVENUES TO $315 MIL TO $335 MIL.
SHORT INT 3 DAYS +1%OPTIONS ON NY/PHUP/DOWN 1.4EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATEEARNINGS STABEPS RANK 56PE 62 (3.6XS&P)5 YR PE 7 - 218
DEBT 2%NEW CEOTIMELINESS AACC/DIST ASMR RATING B
6.43 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D 12.7%RET ON EQUITY 7%CASH FLOW $1.29
FUNDS 43%BANKS 0%MGMT 5%ALPHA 0.53BETA 1.13
32.96
40.71
67.44
73.71
22.2925.98
53.2749.19
99
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
PO
PPO
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
PRICE SCALE
98COMPOSITE RATING(W)13$ 0.37 $ 48 1414 -0.01 63 1815 0.43 25 816 0.17 15 617 1.69 28 1018 1.00 40 1319 1.67EST +67% ↑20 2.07EST +24% ↓
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOErieIndmty ERIE 98 86Fanhua FANH 93 84Aon AON 92 82WillisTowe WLTW 90 93GallaghrAr AJG 88 77
GROUP REL STR 98 RS EPS
281431173195228228251128143016219521724102713JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 19DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
-0.40 VS 0.01 N/A32.7 VS 34.6 -6%N/A 16X-- 8X
-0.22 VS -0.04 N/A40.8 VS 31.5 +30%N/A 31X-- 15X
1.61 VS 1.57 +3%134.9 VS 83.1 +62%N/A 46X-- 26X
0.33 VS -0.07#+571%68.8 VS 43.1 +60%N/A 75X-- 41X
EPS DUE*7/26 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,18 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,18 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,18 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,19
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
52K
174K
650K
*THE TRADE DESK INC CL A(TTD) NASDAQ 38.5 SHRS / 37.4 FLT / AVG VOL1.71MIL $227.78(OH -11%)COMML SVCS-ADVERTISING thetradedesk.comSELF-SERVICE PLATFORM FOR AD BUYERS TO PURCHASE AND MANAGE DATA-DRIVEN DIGITAL ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS
5/19 RAISED 2019 ADJUSTED EBITDA GUIDANCE TO ABOUT $188.5 MIL.
SHORT INT 2.4 DAYS +9%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 0.9EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATE +69%EARNINGS STAB 9EPS RANK 99PE 82 (4.5XS&P)5 YR PE 29 - 88
DEBT 0%NEW CEOTIMELINESS AACC/DIST BSMR RATING A
25.70 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D 17.6%RET ON EQUITY 39%CASH FLOW $3.09
FUNDS 48%BANKS 1%MGMT 3%ALPHA 0.37BETA 2.22
97.87
161.50
149.00
214.70
232.70
83.66
105.03105.34 102.35
178.30173.60
98
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
PRICE SCALE
99COMPOSITE RATING$18.00IPO 9/21/1613$14 0.01 $15 0.5616 0.87 33 2217 1.60 67 2618 2.70 161 4019 2.89EST +7% ↓20 3.63EST +26% ↑
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOTelaria TLRA 98 53Fluent FLNT 98 45SocialReal SRAX 97 15Cbdmd YCBD 97 7Marchx MCHX 96 76
GROUP REL STR 96 RS EPS
281431173195228228251128143016219521724102713JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 19DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.60 VS 0.52 +15%112.3 VS 72.8 +54%N/A 54X-- 29X
0.65 VS 0.35 +86%118.8 VS 79.4 +50%N/A 88X-- 48X
1.09 VS 0.54 +102%160.5 VS 102.7 +56%N/A 83X-- 48X
0.49 VS 0.34 +44%121.0 VS 85.7 +41%N/A 80X-- 51X
EPS DUE 8/9 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,18 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,18 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,18 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,19
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
400K
1.2M
3.5M
*CYBERARK SOFTWARE LTD(CYBR) NASDAQ 35.0 SHRS / 21.7 FLT / AVG VOL954040 $127.84(OH -7%)COMPUTER SFTWR-SECURITY cyberark.comISRAELI PROVIDER OF NETWORK SECURITY SOFTWARE FOCUSED ON PROTECTING PRIVILEGED ACCOUNTS
5/19 EXPECTS 2019 NON-GAAP EARNINGS OF $2.10 TO $2.16 PER DILUTED SHARE ON REVENUES OF $415.0 MIL TO $419.0 MIL.
SHORT INT 1.2 DAYS -12%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 1.4EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATE +41%EARNINGS STAB 27EPS RANK 99PE 55 (3.1XS&P)5 YR PE 31 - 144
DEBT 0%NEW CEOTIMELINESS AACC/DIST CSMR RATING A
12.63 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D 16.2%RET ON EQUITY 19%CASH FLOW $2.3
FUNDS 33%BANKS 1%MGMT 38%ALPHA 0.26BETA 1.29
69.97
81.2484.21
79.16
138.73135.58
59.02
65.85 64.66 65.90
118.50118.50
97
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
PRICE SCALE
99COMPOSITE RATING$16.00IPO 9/24/1413$ 0.28 $14 0.49 47 2215 1.00 76 3316 1.26 59 3117 1.16 55 3918 2.06 84 4019 2.16EST +5% ↑20 2.54EST +18% ↑
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOOkta A OKTA 99 12Zscaler ZS 98 76Digimrc DMRC 98 19Zix ZIXI 97 70Rapid7 RPD 97 63
GROUP REL STR 94 RS EPS
281431173195228228251128143016219521724102713JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 19DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.36 VS 0.21 +71%77.7 VS 57.5 +35%N/A 57X-- 42X
0.48 VS 0.25 +92%84.7 VS 64.8 +31%N/A 60X-- 46X
0.89 VS 0.41 +117%109.1 VS 80.4 +36%N/A 61X-- 41X
0.56 VS 0.32 +75%95.9 VS 71.8 +34%N/A 58X-- 44X
EPS DUE 8/7 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,18 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,18 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,18 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,19
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
148K
450K
1.4M
*GLOBANT SA(GLOB) NYSE 35.9 SHRS / 33.4 FLT / AVG VOL420160 $101.05(OH -4%)COMPUTER-TECH SERVICES globant.comLUXEMBOURG PROVIDER OF IT SERVICES WITH 40 CENTERS IN ARGENTINA, URUGUAY, COLOMBIA, BRAZIL, MEXICO, PERU
5/19 EXPECTS 2019 ADJUSTED EARNINGS OF $2.13 TO $2.21 PER DILUTED SHARE ON REVENUES OF $638 MIL TO $646 MIL.
SHORT INT 5 DAYS -28%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 2.4EX-DIVYIELD
GROWTH RATE +27%EARNINGS STAB 17EPS RANK 96PE 53 (3.0XS&P)5 YR PE 18 - 45
DEBT 0%NEW CEOTIMELINESS AACC/DIST BSMR RATING A
13.73 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO.R&D N/ARET ON EQUITY 21%CASH FLOW $2.35
FUNDS 48%BANKS 0%MGMT 6%ALPHA 0.2BETA 1.52
59.97
66.41
59.92
74.00
53.62 53.24
46.3048.95
50.91
67.60
75.00
98
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PRICE SCALE
99COMPOSITE RATING$10.00IPO 7/18/1413$ 0.44∆ $14 0.77∆ 15 1015 0.98∆ 38 1316 1.09 47 2217 1.28 47 3018 1.74 66 4219 2.20EST +26% ↓20 2.69EST +22% ↓
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOEndava A DAVA 97 97CSP CSPI 96 20Sapiens SPNS 95 86Perficient PRFT 95 80CDW CDW 92 96
GROUP REL STR 83 RS EPS
281431173195228228251128143016219521724102713JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 19DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.40 VS 0.26 +54%127.9 VS 99.6 +28%N/A 41X-- 33X
0.46 VS 0.37 +24%134.6 VS 109.7 +23%N/A 43X-- 35X
0.50 VS 0.39 +28%140.1 VS 115.4 +21%N/A 39X-- 30X
0.50 VS 0.38 +32%146.2 VS 119.7 +22%N/A 43X-- 31X
EPS DUE 8/23 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,18 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,18 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,18 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,19
R S LINE VS SP500 VOLUME
96K
300K
1M
24
CyberArk Software Ltd (CYBR)
Globant SA (GLOB)
*KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD LTD(KL ) NYSE 209.7 SHRS / 201.3 FLT / AVG VOL1.61MIL $42.92(OH -2%)MINING-GOLD/SILVER/GEMS klgold.comCANADIAN FIRM ENGAGED IN THE PROVISION OF MINING AND MINERAL EXPLORATION IN CANADA AND AUSTRALIA.
3/19 NAMED JEFFREY PARR INTERIM CHRMN, EFFECTIVE MAY 7, 2019, REPLACING ERIC SPROTT WHO WILL RETIRE.
SHORT INT 3.6 DAYS -6%OPTIONS ONUP/DOWN 1.4EX-DIV 6/27YIELD 0.4%
GROWTH RATE +181%EARNINGS STAB 57EPS RANK 99PE 26 (1.5XS&P)5 YR PE 16 - 32
DEBT 2%NEW CEOTIMELINESS AACC/DIST BSMR RATING A
7.77 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 18.2XR&D 6.5%RET ON EQUITY 24%CASH FLOW $2
FUNDS 39%BANKS 1%MGMT 4%ALPHA 0.32BETA -0.26
23.8622.34
36.74
17.2618.12
29.1530.57
98
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
10
20
30
40
50
PRICE SCALE
99COMPOSITE RATING13$1415 0.08 $16 0.3217 0.75 15 1018 1.34 26 1319 2.23EST +66% ↓20 2.25EST +1% ↑
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LOTanzanian TRX 99 25GoldFields GFI 98 77AnglogoldA AU 98 76SibanyeGol SBGL 98 5NovaGold NG 96 40
GROUP REL STR 84 RS EPS
281431173195228228251128143016219521724102713JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 19DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.30 VS 0.19 +58%214.7 VS 189.9 +13%$0.02 24X-- 19X
0.29 VS 0.17 +71%222.7 VS 176.7 +26%$0.02 25X-- 17X
0.52 VS 0.31 +68%280.3 VS 212.4 +32%$0.03 23X-- 16X
0.53 VS 0.25 +112%304.9 VS 198.2 +54%$0.03 30X-- 21X
EPS DUE 8/1 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,18 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,18 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,18 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,19
R S LINE VS SP500 VOLUME
500K
1.6M
5.5M
UNIVERSAL DISPLAY CORP(OLED) NASDAQ 47.2 SHRS / 42.0 FLT / AVG VOL773602 $188.06(OH -2%)ELEC-MISC PRODUCTS udcoled.comDESIGNS ORGANIC LIGHT EMITTING DIODE DEVICES FOR FLAT PANEL DISPLAYS USED IN THE CONSUMER ELECTRONICS MARKET.
5/19 EXPECTS 2019 REVENUES OF $405 MIL TO $425 MIL.
SHORT INT 4.8 DAYS +5%OPTIONS ON AM/MSUP/DOWN 1.0EX-DIV 6/13YIELD 0.2%
GROWTH RATE +20%EARNINGS STAB 25EPS RANK 83PE 106 (5.9XS&P)5 YR PE 26 - 131
DEBT 0%NEW CEOTIMELINESS BACC/DIST BSMR RATING B
12.86 X BK VALUEINVENTORY TO. 4.7XR&D 21.7%RET ON EQUITY 9%CASH FLOW $0.3
FUNDS 51%BANKS 1%MGMT 4%ALPHA 0.31BETA 2.12
130.60125.55
130.01
99.48
190.00
83.0378.78
143.55143.55
98
QTR 2QTR 1
QTR 4
QTR 3
DIVINC
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
PRICE SCALE
98COMPOSITE RATING(W)(C)13$ 0.70 $ 39 2414 0.90 39 2215 0.94 57 2516 1.02∆ 74 4017 2.47 192 5518 1.24 209 7819 2.43EST +96% ↑20 3.75EST +54% ↑
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LORschFront REFR 99 28Virnetx VHC 97 31Astronova ALOT 94 88Trimble TRMB 90 61ZebraTech ZBRA 89 95
GROUP REL STR 81 RS EPS
281431173195228228251128143016219521724102713JUNMAYAPRMARFEBJAN 19DECNOVOCTSEPAUG
EARNINGS $SALES MIL. $DIVIDEND-PE
0.23 VS 0.99 -77%56.2 VS 102.5 -45%$0.06 50X-- 34X
0.48 VS 0.28 +71%77.6 VS 61.7 +26%$0.06 82X-- 35X
0.40 VS 0.95 -58%70.1 VS 115.9 -39%$0.06 79X-- 46X
0.66 VS 0.13 +408%87.8 VS 43.6 +101%$0.10 131X-- 44X
EPS DUE 8/9 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,18 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,18 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,18 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,19
R S LINE VS SP500
VOLUME
350K
1M
2.8M
25
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd (KL)
Universal Display Corp (OLED)
26
MarketSmith Smart Alerts are designed to go beyond a set price, and
instead focus on technical signals that may serve as alternative buy
or sell points. Click on the Alerts icon at the top right of the chart and
select “Manage Alerts,” then click on the “Smart Alerts” tab to receive a
notification when a stock meets any of these five criteria.
Features Highlight: Smart Alerts
Pullback to 10-week line helps investors identify a point where they
might want to add to their positions when the market is in a solid
uptrend. The price must still be higher than the pivot of the most recent
base, meaning the breakout is still viable.
50-Day Break on Volume is a potential warning that a breakout might
be failing. The alert will trigger if a stock falls 5% below the 50-day in
27
volume 50% or more above average. The 50-day Break alert only triggers
for stocks that have broken out of a base and had been in an uptrend
prior to the break.
50-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) triggers when the stock is
moving down to or up to the 50-day line. This area is a critical support
area for institutions. If the stock is moving down, look to see if there’s
institutional support to push the stock price up. Consequently, as a stock
moves up to the 50-day SMA, this can affirm a stock is forming a base
with strength to complete the pattern, a sign of institutional support and
a possible breakout.
10-day SMA triggers when a stock is above the 10-day moving average
and pulling back. Breaking out and staying above the 10-day SMA, while
continuing to bounce higher, can signal strong momentum for a stock run.
21-day SMA triggers when a stock is above the 21-day moving average
and pulling back. If a stock falls below the 21-day line, it might be a sign
to exit the position or wait for institutional support.
Custom Trendline Alerts
To know when a channel line is broken (see this issue’s feature article for
more on that), you can draw your own trendline and set a custom alert.
To draw a trendline, right-click on the chart and select “Temporary Line
Pen.” (Note: you can also draw a trendline by holding down the “Ctrl”
key while clicking and dragging your mouse). Once you have drawn
your trendline, hover over it with your cursor, right-click, and select
“Set Alert.” The trigger for trendline alerts is determined by the location
of the line, and it is recalculated and extended each day. The alert is
triggered when a stock’s current price crosses the trendline.
28
Resources
MarketSmith Coaching
Questions about MarketSmith? Call us today and talk to a Product Coach!
Whether you have a question about earnings season or you just want
some perspective on recent market action, our Product Coaches are here
for you. Best of all, this service is free with your MarketSmith subscription!
Here are a few investing-related topics you can call us about today:
• Building a better research routine
• Finding stocks that fit your investing style
• Identifying buy and sell points
• Gauging supply and demand via volume
Call a coach at 800-831-2525, Monday-Friday, 9am-7pm ET.
__________________________________________________________________________________
MarketSmith University
Looking for a faster way to get started? We’ve taken everything a
MarketSmith member needs to know and gathered it into one place!
Check out MarketSmith University from the members home page,
MarketSmith.investors.com. It’s located in the center of the page under
the “Getting Started” section.
11 Essential Lessons: When you click on the link, you’ll be taken to the
core curriculum. These 11 webinars were personally selected by our
coaches to give you a roadmap to better investing. You’ll learn all about
big-picture concepts like technical and fundamental stock data, as well
as practical how-to guides on research routines and watch lists.
Continue Your Education: Once you’ve absorbed these 11 lessons and
you’re on your way to mastering MarketSmith, you’ll want to check out
the full range of educational webinars available. If you click the drop-
down menu next to the 11 core lessons, you’ll see additional topics that
you can explore any time.
29
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Check out Friday’s video market update for our take on the
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the IBD® and MarketSmith® teams work to help you succeed
in the market.
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Copyright © 2019 Investor’s Business Daily, Inc., Investor’s Business Daily, IBD, CAN SLIM, and corresponding logos are registered trademarks owned by Investor’s Business Daily, Inc. MarketSmith is a registered trademark of MarketSmith, Incorporated.
The material contained herein is not to be reproduced, redistributed, published, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of Investor’s Business Daily, Inc. and MarketSmith Incorporated.
Data provided under license agreement by William O’Neil + Co. Incorporated. All material presented here has been obtained or derived from sources believed to be accurate, but Investor’s Business Daily, Inc., MarketSmith Inc., and William O’Neil + Company, Inc. do not guarantee its accuracy and it may possibly be incomplete and/or condensed. The contents are based on the study and interpretation of available data as it relates to our historical models of the best performing stocks. This is not a prospectus; no effort on our part with respect to sale or purchase of any securities is intended or implied. Any chart appearing in this material is for educational purposes and is not, and should not be construed as a recommendation or rating to buy or sell any security. It is possible that at this date or some subsequent date the officers, directors and/or shareholders of William O’Neil + Company, Inc., MarketSmith Inc. and Investor’s Business Daily, Inc. and their affiliates own securities or buy or sell securities listed in the following pages or those not mentioned.
Standard & Poor’s US Index Data
Copyright © 2019, Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (“S&P”). Reproduction of S&P US Index Data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of S&P. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by S&P’s sources, S&P or others, S&P does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, completeness, timeliness or availability of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. S&P GIVES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE. In no event shall S&P or its affiliates be liable for any indirect, special or consequential damages in connection with subscriber’s or others’ use of S&P US Index Data. (2012)
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