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OECD/IEA 2013
World Energy Outlook 2012
Maria van der Hoeven
Executive Director, IEA
Mexico City, 12 February 2013
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The context
Foundations of global energy system shifting Resurgence in oil & gas production in some countries
Retreat from nuclear in some others
Signs of increasing policy focus on energy efficiency
All-time high oil prices acting as brake on global economy
Divergence in natural gas prices affecting Europe (with prices 5-times US
levels) and Asia (8-times)
Symptoms of an unsustainable energy system persist Fossil fuel subsidies up almost 30% to $523 billion in 2011
CO2emissions at record high, while renewables industry under strain
Despite new international efforts, 1.3 billion people still lack electricity
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Emerging economies steer energy markets
Share of global energy demand
Global energy demand rises by over one-third in the period to 2035,
underpinned by rising living standards in China, India & the Middle East
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1975 2010 2035
Middle East
India
China
OECD
Non-OECD
Rest of non-OECD
6 030 Mtoe 12 380 Mtoe 16 730 Mtoe
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A US oil & gas transformation
United States oil and gas production, 1980-2035
The surge in unconventional oil & gas production has implications
well beyond the United States
Unconventional gas
Conventional gas
Unconventional oil
Conventional oil
mboe/d
5
10
15
20
25
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 20302035
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Unconventional gas in Mexico
Keep development costs down,
but recognize social and environmental impacts and public perception risks
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Iraq oil poised for a major expansion
Iraq oil production
Iraq accounts for 45% of the growth in global production to 2035;
by the 2030s it becomes the second-largest global oil exporter, overtaking Russia
1
2
3
4
56
7
8
9
2012 2020 2035
mb/d North
Centre
South
Iraq oil exports
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2012 2020 2035
mb/d Other
Asia
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Middle East oil to Asia: a new silk road
Middle East oil export, by destination
By 2035, almost 90% of Middle Eastern oil exports go to Asia; North Americas
emergence as a net exporter accelerates the eastward shift in trade
7
United StatesKorea & Japan EuropeChina India
mb/d 2000
2011
2035
1
2
3
4
5
6
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Natural gas: towards a globalised market
Major global gas trade flows, 2010
Rising supplies of unconventional gas & LNG help to diversify trade flows, putting
pressure on conventional gas suppliers & oil-linked pricing mechanisms
Major global gas trade flows, 2035
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Different trends in oil & gas
import dependency
While dependence on imported oil & gas rises in many countries,
Net oil & gas import dependency in selected countries
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Oil imports
Gas Imports
United States
ChinaIndia
European Union
Korea & Japan
2010
2035
20%Gas Exports
the United States swims against the tide
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3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000TWh
2 000
A power shift to emerging economies
The need for electricity in emerging economies drives a 70% increase in worldwide
demand, with renewables accounting for half of new global capacity
Change in power generation, 2010-2035
-1 000 0 1 000European Union
United States
China
TWh
Coal Gas Nuclear Renewables
India
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The multiple benefits of renewables
come at a cost
Renewable subsidies were $88 billion in 2011; over half the subsidies required to
2035 has been committed to existing projects or is needed to meet 2020 targets
Global renewable energy subsidies of $4.8 trillion, 2011-2035
Electricity
$3.6 trillion
Biofuels
$1.2 trillion
Committed to
existing projects
$1.0 trillion
Required to
meet targets
2012-2020
$1.6 trillion
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2010
Energy is becoming thirstier in the
face of growing water constraints
The energy sectors water needs are set to grow, making water an increasingly
important criterion for assessing the viability of energy projects
20%
40%60%80%
100%
2010
Coal
Nuclear
Other
Energy
BiofuelsFossil fuels
Power
Global water use Water for energy
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Energy efficiency: a huge opportunity going
unrealised
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Industry Transport Power
generation
Buildings
Unrealised energy
efficiency potential
Realised energy
efficiency potential
Two-thirds of the economic potential to improve energy efficiency remains untapped
in the period to 2035
Energy efficiency potential used by sector in the New Policies Scenario
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The Efficient World Scenario:
a blueprint for an efficient world
Economically viable efficiency measures can halve energy demand growth to 2035;
oil demand savings equal the current production of Russia & Norway
Total primary energy demand by scenario
12 000
13 000
14 000
15 000
16 000
17 000
18 000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Mtoe
New Policies
Scenario
Efficient
World Scenario
Reduction in 2035
Coal 1350 Mtce
Oil 12.7 mb/d
Gas 680 bcm
Others 250 Mtoe
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Energy efficiency brings economic gains
In addition to cutting energy expenditures by an average of 20%, improved efficiency
brings wider economic gains, particularly for India, China, the United States & Europe
Energy expenditure in 2035 compared with 2010
Trillion
Efficient World
Scenario
New Policies
ScenarioAdditional in the
New Policies
Scenario
-$0.3
$0
$0.3
$0.6
$0.9
$1.2
$1.5
China India European
Union
United
States
Japan
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Mexico: Towards energy leadership
Greater efforts are needed to tap the full potential that Mexicos
energy sector can bring to the economy as a whole
Reforms need to tackle persistent blockages:
lack of investment and technology,
fossil fuel subsidies
hurdles to the deployment of low-carbon technologies
A reformed energy sector can serve as a locomotive for growth
Successful reforms could turn Mexico into an influential voice in
global energy reform discussions
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