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PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study
San Andreas and Other Fault Sources; Background Source SSC TI Team Evaluation Steve Thompson
Diablo Canyon SSHAC Level 3 PSHA Workshop #3
Feedback to Technical Integration Team on Preliminary Models March 25-27, 2014
San Luis Obispo, CA
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 2
Overview of the Preliminary SSC Model
SSC Elements: Key Fault Sources San Andreas and Other Regional Fault Sources Background Source
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 3
San Andreas and Other Fault Sources
San Andreas Fault Other 200-Mile Site Region Faults
Goal: Capture maximum contribution of SAF
Goals: Complete SSC within 200-mi Site Region Confirm past results about contribution of “other” faults
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 4
San Andreas Fault
Approach: Approximate UCERF3
Characterization Ten Sections in 200-mi Matched a composite
“Participation MFD” Overestimates UCERF3
Solution
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 5
San Andreas Fault Source Composite Participation MFD:
P SC CR Pf Ch Cz BB MN MS (SB)
𝑀 ≤ 7.0,𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 𝑀 = �𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑖(𝑀)9
𝑖=1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 𝒊 =
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 6
7.0 < 𝑀 ≤ 7.5,𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 𝑀 = �𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑘(𝑀)5
𝑘=1
San Andreas Fault Source Composite Participation MFD:
P SC CR Pf Ch Cz BB MN MS (SB)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 𝒊 =
1 2 3 4 5 𝒌 =
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 7
San Andreas Fault Source Composite Participation MFD:
P SC CR Pf Ch Cz BB MN MS (SB)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 𝒊 =
1 2 3 4 5 𝒌 =
1 2 3 𝒏 =
𝑀 > 7.5,𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 𝑀 = �𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑛(𝑀)3
𝑛=1
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 8
𝑀 ≤ 7.0,𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 𝑀 = �𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑖(𝑀)9
𝑖=1
San Andreas Fault Source Composite Participation MFD:
P SC CR Pf Ch Cz BB MN MS (SB)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 𝒊 =
1 2 3 4 5 𝒌 =
1 2 3 𝒏 =
7.0 < 𝑀 ≤ 7.5,𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 𝑀 = �𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑘(𝑀)5
𝑘=1
P CR Ch BB MS
𝑀 > 7.5,𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 𝑀 = �𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑛(𝑀)3
𝑛=1
MS Ch P
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 9
San Andreas Fault Source Composite Participation MFD:
1.E-06
1.E-05
1.E-04
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
1.E+00
5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0
Annu
al R
ate
of E
xcee
danc
e (y
r-1)
Magnitude (M)
Target MFD
Composite SAF for DCPP
Cholame Participation UCERF3.3
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 10
San Andreas and Other Fault Sources
San Andreas Fault Other 200-Mile Site Region Faults
Goal: Capture maximum contribution of SAF
Goals: Complete SSC within 200-mi Site Region Confirm past results about contribution of Other faults
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 11
“Other” Faults Other Faults within the
200-Mile Site Region UCERF3.3, Fault model
3.2 Additional offshore
faults from LTSP
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 12
“Other” Faults Index of Detailed Maps
of Other Faults within the 200-Mile Site Region
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 13
“Other” Faults Other Site Region
Faults, Detail Greater San Francisco
Bay Area
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 14
“Other” Faults Other Site Region
Faults, Detail Central California Coast
Ranges
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 15
“Other” Faults Other Site Region
Faults, Detail Southern Coast Ranges
and Western Transverse Ranges
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 16
“Other” Faults Other Site Region
Faults, Detail Southern Sierra Nevada
and Mojave Areas
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 17
“Other” Faults Other Site Region
Faults, Detail Transverse Ranges, L.A.
Basin, and California Borderlands Areas
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 18
“Other” Faults Geometry – UCERF3.3,
Fault Model 3.2 Added: Santa Lucia Bank
fault; Queenie, Lompoc, and Purisima structures (from LTSP)
Removed: Hosgri, San Gregorio, Los Osos, Shoreline, San Luis Bay, San Luis Range; San Andreas fault
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 19
“Other” Faults: Source Characterization Logic Tree, UCERF3 faults
[0.3]
NeoKinema
Geologic
[1.0]
[0.5] FM 3.1
FM 3.2 [0.5]
Zeng
[0.3]
ABM [0.1]
UCERF3.3 FM 3.2
UCERF3.3 Apx. B
Geometry Slip Rate Sense of Slip
[1.0]
[0.3] UCERF3.3
(Weighted Mean Target Rate)
[1.0]
Slip Rate Weighting Scheme
(following UCERF3.3)
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 20
“Other” Faults: Source Characterization Logic Tree, LTSP offshore faults
(Clark et al., 1991)
Fault Source (Primary Reference)
[1.0]
Slip Rate
0.1 mm/yr*
[1.0]
1 mm/yr*
[1.0]
0.1 mm/yr †
[1.0]
Dip and Sense of slip
[1.0]
[1.0]
45 NE, RL-R (Miller and Meltzer,
1999)
Santa Lucia Bank
Queenie
Purisima, Lompoc
†Assumed Equivalent to Queenie SSC
40 NE, R
40 NE, R †
*Rounded up from cited or estimated rate
(Willingham et al., 2013)
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 21
“Other” Faults: Source Characterization Logic Tree (cont.)
[1.0]
[0.5]
EB (Log A + 4.2)
HB02 (~ Log A + 4)
[0.5] YC85
Magnitude-Fault Area (weighted)
Magnitude PDF
Mmax Mchar
[1.0]
Mchar weighting scheme
Mchar + 0.25
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 22
Background source
Poorly resolved sources of seismicity Undefined faults
Goals: Complete SSC within 200-mi Site Region Confirm past results about contribution
of Background source
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 23
Background source Approach: Use historical seismicity rate, G-R distribution Be conservative – include seismicity associated
with on fault sources Consider alternative characterizations: UCERF2 gridded seismicity UCERF3 gridded seismicity PG&E catalog, areal zonation Felser catalog, areal zonation
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 24
Background source
UCERF2 gridded seismicity
Mmax ~7.0
25
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study
Diablo Canyon SSHAC Level 3 Study
Thank You
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