1
Operational RateOperational Rate
Understanding the BAMUnderstanding the BAM
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OverviewOverview
SamplingSampling FormulaFormula Weighting Weighting Excluded OverpaymentsExcluded Overpayments Time PeriodTime Period
33
SamplingSampling
BAM data gathered weeklyBAM data gathered weekly Sampling programSampling program Sample size Sample size Results are estimatesResults are estimates
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The FormulaThe Formula
)( / ) x)mN
(v)m
N(( ih
m
=1ih
hH
=1hih
m
=1ih
hH
=1h
hh
Nh = Total number of UI payments in the
population for batch h.
vih = Dollars overpaid for the ith case in batch h.
xih = Original amount paid/offset for the ith case in batch h.
mh = Number of completed sample cases for batch h.
H = Number of batches in the range.
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The Formula…SimplifiedThe Formula…Simplified
Total Amount Overpaid
÷Total Amount Paid
=Rate Overpaid
66
Extra FactorsExtra Factors
WeightedWeighted Computed WeeklyComputed Weekly Summed YearlySummed Yearly
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WeightingWeighting Based on sample casesBased on sample cases How much weight does each case carry?How much weight does each case carry?
Number of cases each week compared to Number of cases each week compared to the number of payments in the universethe number of payments in the universe
Avg score for men = 5
Avg score for women = 10
Is the average score 7.5?
What if there are 100 men in the population and only 50 women?
5*100 + 10*50 / 150 = 6.666
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ExclusionsExclusions
Non-Recoverable OverpaymentsNon-Recoverable Overpayments Technically Proper OverpaymentsTechnically Proper Overpayments Base Period Wage ErrorsBase Period Wage Errors Work SearchWork Search ES RegistrationES Registration Other CausesOther Causes Why?Why?
• RecoverableRecoverable• Reasonably detectable Reasonably detectable
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Time PeriodTime Period
Based on a sampleBased on a sample Need 12 months to get full pictureNeed 12 months to get full picture BAM is currentBAM is current BAM is a sample, therefore an BAM is a sample, therefore an
estimateestimate Operational Rate Operational Rate
• Overpayment rate * Dollars paid in the Overpayment rate * Dollars paid in the populationpopulation
• estimated amount of overpayments in estimated amount of overpayments in the population the population
1010
BPCBPC
Ties to BPC Ties to BPC • (Overpayment/Fraud Unit)(Overpayment/Fraud Unit)
BPC takes timeBPC takes time• 6 months to discover (wage detail), 6 months to discover (wage detail),
investigate and writeinvestigate and write
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Goals and StandardsGoals and Standards GPRA target is to establish 52.8% of the GPRA target is to establish 52.8% of the
overpayments that BAM estimates is out there overpayments that BAM estimates is out there (FY 2010)(FY 2010)
Lower limit 50%Lower limit 50%• CAP needed if below 50%CAP needed if below 50%
Upper Limit 95%Upper Limit 95%• BAM program accuracy suspectBAM program accuracy suspect• BPC reporting accuracy suspectBPC reporting accuracy suspect• CAP needed if over 95%CAP needed if over 95%
UIPL regarding target:UIPL regarding target:• http://wdr.doleta.gov/directives/attach/UIPL/UIPL28-09.pdfhttp://wdr.doleta.gov/directives/attach/UIPL/UIPL28-09.pdf
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Time linesTime lines BAM Operational rate datesBAM Operational rate dates
• Jan. 1, Year1 through Dec. 31, Year1Jan. 1, Year1 through Dec. 31, Year1 BPC DatesBPC Dates
• Jul 1, Year1 through Jun 30, Year2Jul 1, Year1 through Jun 30, Year2
WEB site to view your rate yearly (GPRA):WEB site to view your rate yearly (GPRA):• http://www.ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/gpra.asp
WEB site to view your 3 year rate (Core WEB site to view your 3 year rate (Core Measure)Measure)• http://workforcesecurity.doleta.gov/unemploy/3yr_overpay.asp
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Understanding the WebsiteUnderstanding the Website
Column 1 = yearly total of cm4Column 1 = yearly total of cm4 Column 2 = Computed Operational RateColumn 2 = Computed Operational Rate Column 3 = Column 1* Column 2 Column 3 = Column 1* Column 2
• $540,341,335 * .0347 = $18,749,844$540,341,335 * .0347 = $18,749,844• Not a perfect match due to roundingNot a perfect match due to rounding
Column 4 = yearly total of 227 OP dataColumn 4 = yearly total of 227 OP data Column 5 = Column 4 / Column 3Column 5 = Column 4 / Column 3
• $10,994,408 / $18,759,207 = .58608$10,994,408 / $18,759,207 = .58608
Col 5
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ReviewReview BAM uses a sampleBAM uses a sample Overpayments/Amount paidOverpayments/Amount paid Weighted to accurately represent the Weighted to accurately represent the
populationpopulation Need a complete year of dataNeed a complete year of data Rate includes only overpayments that are Rate includes only overpayments that are
recoverable and reasonably detectablerecoverable and reasonably detectable Compare rate to a full year, 6 months later Compare rate to a full year, 6 months later
for BPC activity for BPC activity
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