2 Auction Academy: The premier educational training experience
Congratulations on being proactive in your growth! Black Book is
proud to support this training. Our tools and insight are always
available. Tom Cross, President. Tim West, VP North American
Auction Director. Anil Goyal, VP Automotive Valuation and
Analytics
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3 Guidebooks, Black Books processes, and the market A look at
the Guidebook industry: Who are the Players? Black Book Processes.
What drives the used market? Recent market trends. Expectations for
2015. Your industry insight. Additional questions.
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4 They have been a fixture at auctions seemingly forever Dec
2012 NIADA Used Car Dealer Magazine
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5 IARA Certified Auto Remarketer Education Program Guidebooks
and Pricing is one of 20 educational modules educational modules
modules
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6 Guidebooks And The Role We Play In The Automotive Industry
Who are the Players? Black Book: reporting the market Kelley Blue
Book: projections, consumer website oriented NADA: projections in
the used values market, more of a lenders guide vAuto: dealer
inventory management, compilation of data Galves: New England
focused, wholesale buyers Red Book: insurance and taxation, less
frequent updates ALG: residual projections only MMR: selected sold
listings from Manheim only
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7 Black Book History 1955 Provide dealers an auction based
market report Gainesville, GA. All printed books 1966 Cox
Communications purchased Black Book 1968 Cox bought auctions in PA
1981 Hearst Corporation parent company Today: Information company
for dealers, lenders, insurance, govt and industry value added
resellers Key data when putting your money on the line, most in
tune with the actual market
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8 Guidebooks provide Current market values: buying, selling,
trade-ins Historical values/comparisons Forecasting Loan Collateral
/ Risk aversion Access through: Printed book Mobile application
Desktop internet Data files
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9 Guidebook Users: Who, Why, How Dealers New & Used
Financial: Collateral, Risk aversion, Portfolio Analysis Captives
Banks Credit Unions Finance Issues facing finance: Credit scores
Advance levels Length of term All about monthly payment
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10 Guidebook Users: Who, Why, How? Are These Your Customers?
Ally Wells Fargo Toyota Chase Capital One Ford Honda Finance
Santander Nissan Infiniti TD Auto Bank Of America 5 th 3 rd Hyundai
US Bank VW Credit Inc. Huntington BMW Bank Americredit/GM Financial
Credit Acceptance Suntrust Bank *Represent 51.76% of all financing*
Source: Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Top 20 Lenders By
Volume
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11 Guidebook Users: Who, Why, How Source: Experian Information
Solutions, Inc. Up by 10-25% Is it going too far? Lending almost
disappeared in 2010. Lending has loosened!
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12 Guidebook Users: Who, Why, How Fleet Management Companies
Insurance: Claim settlement Government VARs (Value added resellers)
Auctions and Auctioneers Additional users:
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13 Why And How Are Guidebooks Important To The Auctions? Market
relevance Relating to current trends Account representation Offer
accurate market data to the remarketers Arbitration Customer
support: Reference & Benchmark to help get accounts
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14 Where Do The Black Book #s Come From? Wholesale or retail
Auction lanes: physical and online Black Book survey personnel 63
auctions every week, 20 electronic data feeds Tim West, VP, North
American Auction Director Data feeds Kevin Giddens, Managing Editor
Anil Goyal, VP Automotive Valuation and Analytics 300+ years
industry experience: 13 Editors 5 dedicated data analysts Daily
updates
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15 How does new relate to used? It is a supply and demand
market Manufacturing the used car New car sales variation: 2004
thru 2007 Averaged 17M 2008 13.3M 2009 - 10.3M 2010 11.5M 2011
12.7M 2012 14.3M 2013 15.6M 2014 16.5M 2015 16.76M BB forecast
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16 Effects of New Car Sales Levels Supplies were at record lows
Strong used car retention Normal annual depreciation: 15-18% 2011:
-7.7%; New car sales in 2009 bottomed at 10.3M 2012: -12.4% 2013:
-12.8% 2014: -12.1%; New finished at 16.5M 2015: -14.5% projected;
BB projects 16.8M
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17 Unexpected events or factors affecting the Market C4C: $2000
to $4000 wholesale Tsunami Consumer credit availability Gas price
volatility: 2008/2009 Hybrids up and Trucks down up to $4.11 Trucks
up and Hybrids down gas at $2.65 Today $2.33, 1/19/15 Diesel first
time under $3.00 in 7 years Hurricane Sandy: instant increasing
demand Winter weather across the country in 2014 Whats next in
2015?
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18 Recent Market Trends What is normal, prerecession annual
depreciation? 15-18% What is normal monthly depreciation? 1.5-1.8%
Does seasonality cause variation in depreciation?
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19 Recent Market Trends 10 segments less than 1%. Only 3 are
cars Dec 1, 2014 to Jan 1, 2015
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20 Recent Market Trends 8 less than 1% FSC +.1% ELC & SCC:
tax season strong Jan 1, 2015 to Feb 1, 2015
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21 Recent Market Trends 9 less than -1.0%, 7 truck related Feb
1, 2015 to Mar 1, 2015 Non-typical tax season, Gas prices
driving?
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22 Recent Market Trends
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23 Recent Market Trends Most recent market changes
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24 Recent Market Trends
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27 Recent Market Trends New car sales: 16.5M better than
industry expected New transaction prices: Cars.com up 5.2%, +$1562
Spread from new to used: 1/1/14 $18277 to 1/1/15 $19279, +$1002
2015 forecasted annual depreciation: -14-14.5% Continued strong and
extended term lending 2015 36M avg forecast 2% points lower than
2014 Lease penetration vs 1997-2000 Why the unexpected & better
trends?
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28 The abnormality factors Volatility driven by unpredictable
events The weather Incentive: lease or cash on the hood; F150?
Economy, consumer confidence Pent up demand Used vehicle
supplies
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Gas prices $2.90 $2.33
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Gas prices
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Peak in Sept 2015 under $2.50 June 2016, Max @$2.90 June 2014,
Max @$3.70
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Consumers are happy Your 401K might not be Today: $2.32 A year
ago: $3.44 2012 avg pump price: $3.62 2013 avg pump price: $3.50
2014 avg pump price: $3.36 2015 $1.00+ lower???? The joys and
frustrations of gas prices
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Come on down! Throughout January in Gainesville, GA
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Increases available funds 25 gallon tank fill up Last year:
$83.25 This year: $55.25 2 tanks a month: $56.00 additional
spending Newer, Bigger, Better, or Keeping it in your pocket?
Reason to change buying or borrowing?
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Caf still driving new: Hybrids, EVs, Entry and Compacts Used
driven by more ROI, affected by low gas prices Trucks strong by
economy, service industries, new designs, old style full-size vans
Toyota Tacoma being challenged by Colorado & Canyon in the
mid-size truck market CPO growth supporting EOT return values
Overall market thoughts
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Whats good for your auction todays market? Are things different
for the full auction industry? What are your concerns regarding the
future market? Any additional questions or comments on the market?
Additional feedback
Slide 37
37 Black Book Auction Industry Relationships NAAA Used Car
Value Report: NAAA website
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38 www.BlackBookAuto.com Values, forecast, specifications,
demand index, market trends vehicle history, all in a desktop
application
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39 Set Up Academy Members w/Mobile App? Complementary mobile
app for each of you throughout the Auction Academy program. Auto
and specialty markets: iPhone or Android
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40 Set Up Academy Members w/Mobile App? Values
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CONTINUING EDUCATION PROGRAM DEVELOPED BY: 41 Black Book is
proud to support this educational program and the National Auto
Auction Association
Slide 42
42 Just call or email Ricky Beggs Sr VP, Editorial Director
770.533.5221 w, 404.915.4215 c [email protected] Tim West,
VP, North American Auction Director 770.533.5230 w, 404.915.2428 c
[email protected] Kevin Giddens, Managing Editor 770.533.5262
w, 678.316.0910 [email protected] Anil Goyal, VP Automotive
Valuation and Analytics 770.533.5236 w, 678.231.9352 c
[email protected] Thank you!