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LiveWebcasthostedby:
JeffreyGundlach
ChiefExecutiveOfficer
January13,2015
2015Market
Outlook
V
8/10/2019 1-13-15 Market Outlook v.pdf
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1
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TABI
BloodlessVerdict
of
the
Market
8/10/2019 1-13-15 Market Outlook v.pdf
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ChangeinGlobal10yearBondYieldsin2014
Source:Bloomberg;Doubleline
Bps=basispoints.Pleaseseeindexdefinitionsintheappendix.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
254
239226224184183173167
151150139127113
97 97 86 60 47
28 21 3
6
261
585
300
200
100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
ChangeinGlobal10yBondfor2014(BPS)
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YieldCurvesFlattenedAcrosstheGlobein2014
Pleaseseeindexdefinitionsintheappendix.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
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5
Equity2014PerformanceTotalReturnUSDAsof12/31/14
Source:Bloomberg;DoubleLine
Pleaseseeindexdefinitionsintheappendix.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
13.7%
10.0%
14.8%
4.9%
7.9%9.6%
5.0%
10.0%
0.5%
9.3%
4.8%
1.2%
4.2%
8.3%
5.3%
2.6%
15%
10%
5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
DevelopedMarkets
Equity
Performance
By
Index
(2014TotalReturnUSD)
9.4% 13.4%
21.3%
9.9%
44.7%
21.2%
54.0%
4.9%
30.4%
4.4%
8.7%
19.1% 22.9% 24.5%
14.5% 13.2%
42.1%
25.7%
18.9%
0.4%
60%
40%
20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
EmergingMarketsEquityPerformanceByCountry(2014TotalReturnUSD)
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FX:DXYvs.TradeWeightedUSDPerformance(3yrs)December31,2011throughJanuary7,2015
Source:Bloomberg;
Doubleline
FX=Foreignexchangerate.DXY=USdollarindexindicatingthegeneralinternationalvalueoftheUSdollar.ItdoesthisbyaveragingtheexchangeratesbetweentheUSDandmajorworld
currencies.
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1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
75
80
85
90
95
10YUSTYield
JPM
organEmergingMarkets
CurrencyIndex(Inverted)$Pirce
EmergingMarketCurrenciesand10YUSTYield
JPMEMFX
10YUST(RHS)
Periodofnegativecorrelation
FX:LowerYieldsnowNegativeforEmergingMarkets
DeflationarySlowdowninGlobalGrowth
December31,
2012
through
December
31,
2014
EMFX
weaker
Source:Bloomberg;Doubleline
FX=Foreign
exchange
rate.
10Y
UST
=10
year
US
Treasury
note
yields.
JPM
EM
FX
=atradable
benchmark
for
Emerging
Markets
currency
markets.
The
index
comprises
of
10
liquid
currencies
acrossthreeequallyweightedregions,LatinAmerica,AsiaandCEEMEAversustheUSdollar.Correlation=Whensecuritiesmoveinasimilardirection.Correlationrangesbetween+1and1.
Omeannocorrelation,1meansperfectcorrelationand1meansnocorrelation.
Aninvestmentcannotbemadedirectlyinanindex.
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FX:GlobalSelectedCurrenciesPerformance
2014TotalReturn
Asof
12/31/14
Source:Bloomberg
JPY=JapaneseYen,CNY=ChinaYuanRenminbi,HKD=HongKongDollar,IDR=IndonesianRupiah,SGD=SingaporeDollar,PEN=PeruvianNuevoSol,CHF=SwissFranc,INR= IndianRupee,GBP=
GrainBritan Pound,ILS=Isreali NewSheqel,NZD=NewZealandDollar,Eur =Euro,SEK=SwedishKrona,TWD=TaiwanDollar,AUD=Austrianlian Dollar,MYR=MalaysianRinggit,CZK=CzechKoruna,
BRL=Brazilian
Lira,
KRW=
Korean
Won,
NOK
=Norwegian
Krone,
MXN
=Mexican
Peso,
PLN
=Polish
Zloty,
CAD
=Canadian
Dollar,
COP =
Columbian
Peso,
TRY
=Turkish
Lira,
CLP
=Chilean
Peso,
ZAR
=SouthAfricanRand,HUF=HungarianForint,RUB=RussianRuble.
FX=ForeignExchange
Aninvestmentcannotbemadeinandindex.
%totalreturn
7.0
9%
6.3
5%
1.6
2%
0.3
1%
0.42
%
1.12%
1.6
5%
1.8
2%
2.2
8%
2.9
4%
3.9
1%
4.3
6%
5.0
4%
5.4
2%
5.7
2%
7.4
5%
9.1
5%
9.9
5%
10.2
2%
10.4
7%
11.8
3%
12.0
6%
12.6
0%
12.9
4%
15.7
9%
15.8
5%
1
7.0
7%
17
.21%
40.3
3%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
10%
INR
IDR
TRY
HKD
CNY
BRL
NZD
KRW
PEN
MYR
ZAR
SGD
TWD
GBP
AUD
CAD
MXN
CLP
CHF
ILS
EUR
JPY
PLN
CZK
HUF
COP
SEK
NOK
RUB
ExpandedMajorCurrenciesPerformance
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10
BondandEquityMutualFundFlowsJanuary1,2007throughDecember31,2014
Source:Bloomberg;Doubleline
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Cumulativenetinflowsbyyear($millions)
BondandEquityMutualFundFlows
Equitymutualfunds
Bondmutual
funds
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12
CommoditiesPerformanceDecember31,2013throughJanuary8,2015
Source:Bloomberg;Doubleline
YTD=YeartoDate.DJ=DowJonesindices.Pleaseseeappendixfordefinitions.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
Gold
Energy
Metals
GrainsCommodity
Silver
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CommodityIndex(CRB)vs.CommodityFuturesIndexJanuary14,2005throughJanuary8,2015
Source:Bloomberg;Doubleline
CRBCMDT
Index
=The
spot
market
price
index
is
ameasure
of
price
movements
of
22
sensitive
basic
commodities
whose
markets
are presumed
to
be
among
the
first
to
be
influenced
by
changes
in
economicconditions.BCOM=BloombergCommodityIndexiscalculatedonanexcessreturnbasisandreflectscommodityfuturespricemovements.Rebalancesannuallyweighted2/3bytradingvolume
and1/3byworldproduction.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
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15
GoldinFX 1yearreturnsJanuary9,2014throughJanuary12,2015
Source:Bloomberg;Doubleline
INR=Indian
Rupee
spot
price,
AUD
=Australian
dollar
spot
price,
CAD
=Canadian
dollar
spot
price,
ZAR
=South
African
Rand spot
price,
RUB
=Russian
Ruble
spot
price,
JPY
=Japanese
yen
spot
price
Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
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Source:Bloomberg
DUST=Direxion dailygoldminersbear3xsharesinanexchangetradedfundincorporatedintheUSAwiththeobjectiveofdailyinvestmentresultsof300%theinverse(oppositeoftheNYSEArca Gold
Minersindex.
GDX
=Market
vectors
gold
miners
ETF
is
an
exchange
traded
fund
incorporated
in
USA
that
tracks
the
performance
of
the
Arca Gold
Miners
Index.
GLD=
SPDR
gold
shares
in
and
investmentfundincorporatedintheUSAwiththeobjectiveisforsharestoreflecttheperformanceofthepriceofgoldbullion.
Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
GoldMinersETFComparisonFortheYear2014
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Source:Bloomberg
XBTBGNCurncy =Bitcoinspotprice.Bitcoinisavirtualcurrencythatismathbaseddigitalassetsinwhichtransactionscanbeperformedcryptographicallywithouttheneedforacentral
issuingauthority.
BitcoinJanuary3,2013throughJanuary5,2015
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FX:USDRealEffectiveExchangeRate
June30,1982throughDecember31,2014
Source:Bloomberg
CEERUS=BOECalculatedeffectiveexchangeratesUSprovidedbytheBankofEngland.Aneffectiveexchangerateisameasureofthevalueofacurrencyagainstabasketofothercurrencies,relativeto
abase
date.
FX
=foreign
exchange.
Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
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19
TABII
BullCase
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20Source:DeutscheBankGlobalMarketsResearch,January2015
LaborMarket LessSlackJanuary1,2001throughDecember31,2014
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21Source:DeutscheBankGlobalMarketsResearch,January2015
UnemploymentRateJanuary1,2008throughDecember31,2014
8/10/2019 1-13-15 Market Outlook v.pdf
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22Source:NFIB,Haver Analytics,DeutscheBankGlobalMarketsResearch,January2015
Sales&LaborJanuary1,2003throughDecember31,2014
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23Source:SocialSecurityAdministration,Haver Analytics,DeutscheBankGlobalMarketsResearch,January2015
DisabilityRecipientsintheU.S.January1,2003throughDecember31,2014
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24
Source:Bloomberg
FDSPNUMIndex=SupplementalNutritionAssistanceProgramparticipationinmillions.
Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
FoodStampUsageOctober31,2005throughSeptember30,2014
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25
Source:Deutsche
Bank
Research,
January
2015,
EIA,
OECD,
Haver Analytics.
Note:
Right
side
scale
is
inverted.
Grey
shaded
area
indicated
U.S.
recession.
G7=SevenindustrializedeconomiesincludeFrance,Germany,Italy,Japan,UnitedStates,UnitedKingdomandCanada.YoY =yearoveryear.GDP=theamountofgoodsandservices
producedwithinagivencountry.
DevelopedCountriesGrowthvs.OilPricesJanuary1,1990throughJanuary4,2015
G7GDP
OilPrices(Scaleinverted)
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Source:Bloomberg
SPX=S&P500Index.Fordefinition,pleaseseeappendix.MSCIACWIIndex=globalfreefloatindexofemerginganddeveloped worldequitymarkets.
Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
S&P500Index/AllCountryWorldLarge&MidCap
EquityIndexJanuary1,2010throughJanuary7,2015
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Cyclicalvs.DefensivePerformanceMonitorJanuary7,2000throughJanuary7,2015
Note:SubsetsoftheS&P500index.Cyclicals=energy,materials, industrials,consumerdiscretionary,Informationtechnology; Defensives=healthcare,consumerstaples,telecoms,utilities.
Standarddeviationsarebasedon10yhistoricallookback.Standarddeviation=Measuresthedispersioninagivensetofdata.Itscalculatedasthesquarerootofvariance.
Youcannot
invest
directly
in
an
index.
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
C
umulativePerformanceLongCyclicalsShortDefensives(Indexedto
8/19/94)
Cyclicalvs.DefensiveBasket*basedon10ystatistics
Cyclicalvs.Defensive
"Simple10yrMov.Avg.
1StDev
2StDev
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TABIII
BearCase
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29
Since1871,USEquitiesHaveNeverRisen7
ConsecutiveYearsinaRow
June30,
1874
through
December
31,
2014
Source:Robert
Shiller,
Yale
University
http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/
S&P500indexdefinitioncanbefoundintheappendix.
Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
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30
Source:dshort.com,
Advisor
Perspectives
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/markets/nyse
margin
debt.html?NYSE
margin
debt
SPX
growth
since
1995.gif
Realinflationadjusteddata.S&P500Indexdefinitioncanbefoundintheappendix.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
MarginDebtHigherNowthan2007January1,1995throughDecember14,2014
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Source:Thechartstore.com
S&P500indexdefinitioncanbefoundintheappendix.QE=Quantitativeeasing.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
S&P500Indexvs.FederalReserveTotalAssetsDecember26,2008throughDecember19,2014
12/19/14
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32
TABIV
Forecasts
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33
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.7
BloombergMedianEconomistForecastforYearEnd2014andActual10yUSTYields
10yUSTreasuryYieldForecastforYearEnd2014July11,2013throughJanuary7,2015
Notes:
Median
economist
forecasts
for
2015
is
based
on
Bloomberg
survey
data
as
of
12/11/14.
Source:Bloomberg;Doubleline
UST=USTreasury
2.17%
1.97%
MedianEconomistForecast2014
10yUSTYield
MedianEconomistForecast2015
3.01%
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BondYieldForecast(US,Germany,andUK)AsofJanuary7,2015
Source:
BloombergG7=France,Germany,Italy,Japan,US,UKandCanada
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Crude Oil Futures vs. Forecasts
Source:Bloomberg
WTI=WesternTexasintermediate.Agradeoflight,sweetcrudeoil.
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USCPIandWTIJanuary7,2005throughJanuary7,2015
100
50
0
50
100
150
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1/7/2005 1/7/2006 1/7/2007 1/7/2008 1/7/2009 1/7/2010 1/7/2011 1/7/2012 1/7/2013 1/7/2014 1/7/2015
WTIYoY%
CPIYoY%
USCPIandWTI
USCPI
WTIYOY%(RHS)
Source:Doubleline;Bloomberg
CPI=ConsumerPriceIndex.WTI=WestTexasintermediateCrudeoil.YoY =yearoveryear.RHS=righthandside.
Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
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OfficialUSCPIandPriceStats (%YoY)January1,2010throughJanuary4,2015
YoY =Yearoveryear.CPI=ConsumerPriceindex.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
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38
USBreakevensSeptember30,2011throughJanuary7,2015
Note:Breakevens demonstrates
predicted
inflation
for
aperiod
of
time
by
comparing
TIPS
to
regular
US
treasury
securities.
The
yields
on
bonds
have
dropped
more
than
TIPS
implying
that
inflationwouldbelowerinthefuture.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
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39
US,German,French,andItalian10YearBreakevensJanuary11,2010throughJanuary11,2015
Source:Bloomberg
Note:Breakevens demonstratespredictedinflationforaperiodoftimebycomparingTIPStoregularUStreasurysecurities.TheyieldsonbondshavedroppedmorethanTIPSimplyingthat
inflationwouldbelowerinthefuture.DEGGBE10Index=German10yearbreakevenindex.FRGGBE10Index=French10yearbreakevenindex.GILGBE10Index=Italian10yearbreakeven
index.USGGBE10Index=US10yearbreakevenindex.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
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40
USDollarandInflationJanuary31,2005throughJanuary6,2015
Source:Bloomberg
DXYCurncy=USDollarspotprice.CPI=ConsumerPriceIndex.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
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41
TABVInterest
Rate
Trends
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42
US2yearTreasuryvs.German2yearTreasuryJanuary8,2010throughJanuary12,2015
Source:Bloomberg
GT2=US2yearTreasury.GTDEM2Y=German2yeartreasuryindex.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
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43
US,Germany&Japan5yearBondYields
Source:Bloomberg
GT5
=
US
Government
generic
5
year
Treasury.
GTJPY5
=
Japanese
5
year
Treasury.
GTDEM5
=
German
5
year
Treasury.
You
cannot
invest
directly
in
an
index.
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44
US,German,JapaneseandSwiss10YearYields
Source:Bloomberg
GT10
=
US
Government
generic
10
year
Treasury.
GTJPY10
=
Japanese
10
year
Treasury.
GTDEM10
=
German
10
year
Treasury.
GTCHF10Y =
Swiss
10
year
Treasury.
You
cannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
2 i ld
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45
Eurozone2YearYieldsOctober1,2013throughJanuary7,2015
Source:Bloomberg,DoubleLine
Germany,
France,
Italy,
Spain
and
Irelands
2
year
Treasury
yields..
You
cannot
invest
directly
in
an
index.
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46
Greece10YearYieldsBreakingDownwardTrend
Source:Bloomberg
Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
GreekYields(%)
Itlaian&SpanishYields
(%)
G k 10 Y Yi ld G ld S t
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47
Greek10YearYieldvs.GoldSpotJanuary11,2010throughJanuary8,2015
Source:Bloomberg
GGGB10YR=Greek10yearTreasuryIndex.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
Central Bank Policy Rates
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48
CentralBankPolicyRatesJanuary1,2004throughDecember31,2014
Source:Deutche Bank
Research,
January
2015.
EurozoneconsistsofAustria,Belguim,Cyprus,Estonia,Finland,France,Germany,Greece,Ireland,Itlay,Latvia,Lithuania,Luxembourg,Malta,theNetherlands,Portugal,Slovakia,Slovenia,
andSpain.
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OilPricesRequiredtoBalanceBudget
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Source:Wall
Street
Journal
http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil
price
slump
strains
budgets
of
some
opec
members
1412952367
q gAsofOctober10,2014
Oil(WTI)vs.HighYieldvs.Inverse10YearUSTYield
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51
vs.S&P500
January
13,
2012
through
January
12,
2015
Source:Bloomberg
CL1COMBComdty =WestTexasIntermediate(WTI)isalight,sweetcrudeoilfuturescontract.SPXT=S&PP500Index.SBCXPCAPIndex=Citigroup HighYieldCashPayCappedIndex.
USGG10YrIndex
=
Generic10
year
US
Treasury.
You
cannot
invest
directly
in
an
index.
Oil (WTI) vs Natural Gas
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52
Oil(WTI)vs.NaturalGasJanuary13,2005throughJanuary12,2015
Source:Bloomberg
CL1COMBComdty =WestTexasIntermediate(WTI)isalight,sweetcrudeoilfuturescontract.NG1Comdty =GenericNaturalgasfuturescontract.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
USShaleBreakevenPoints
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53Source:
US
Global
Investors,
Everyone
Loves
aDiscount
But
Wheres
the
Support
for
Oil
Prices?,
November
7,
2014
http://www.usfunds.com/investorlibrary/investoralert/?pageNum=9&nextNID=BF9D8F35AF2A838E891B004B005607A1#.VK7DyfJmyUk
AsofOctober10,2014
EnergySectorWeightingAcrossCreditand
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54
gy g g
EquityIndicesAs
of
November
25,
2014
Pleaseseeappendixfordefinitions.
Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
USOil&GasProducersHaveNotReliedHeavilyon
B k L
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BankLoans
December
31,
2000
through
September
30,
2014
Source:Gavekal Data/Macrobond
Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
OnlySmallShareofCapexGoestoEnergySector
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56
January1,1960throughDecember31,2014
Source:DeutscheBankResearch,January2015
Capex=capitalexpenditure.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
HYEnergyandMetalsRemainUnderPressure
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57
December31,2013throughJanuary6,2015
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
GO
VTOAS
HYSpreads
HY
HYEnergy
Source:Bloomberg,DoubleLine
HY=HighYield,HYEnergy=Theenergysectorofthehighyieldmarket.
Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
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58
TAB
VII
ClosingThoughts
China HomePricesareFallingJ 1 2010 th h D b 31 2014
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59
January1,2010throughDecember31,2014
Source:DeutscheBankResearch,January2015
Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
WhenCouldDefaultFearsBecomeanIssue?As of December 1 2014
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60
AsofDecember1,2014
Source:CitigroupResearch,December1,2014
HY=High
Yield.
You
cannot
invest
directly
in
an
index.
Years
RetailSalesvs.OnlineSalesJanuary 1 1995 through December 31 2014
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January1,1995throughDecember31,2014
Source:DeutscheBankResearch,January2015
Youcannot
invest
directly
in
an
index.
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January13,2015
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