7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
1/56
Energy Security Initiativeat BROOKINGS
MAY 2012
Policy Brief 12-01
Liquid Markets:
Assessing the Caseor U.S. Exports oLiquefed Natural Gas
Charles EbingerKevin Massy
Govinda Avasarala
7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
2/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
i
AboUT ThE bRookINGS ENERGY SECURITY INITIATIVE
E S I (ESI) s ss-pm b Bks Is dsd s mldspl s d dl ll sps s d. ESI zs pbl d p s ld pd d s wll sp lbl m,
ml d s ldsp pd ws d m s wll
q dmd dsd lkl sqs s s d
mpls sd plmk. T ESI Pl B Ss s dd sws ss dsd slsp pl sss m s bd s s, w mpss
d pl mmds.
Contact or the Energy Security Initiative:Gd Asl
S Rs Asss
(202) 797-6231
Bks zs l pds spp s
s bsl mmm ql, dpd d mp. A-
s sppd b s ds s mmm, d lss
d mmds Iss sls dmd
b d.
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
3/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
ii
G AGd Asl s S Rs Asss
E S I Bks. Hs
s ss pls
m mks, dms d l l
d l s mks, d mlll
mwks. H s BS Ems m
Us M Ws.
C EgCls Eb s s llw d d
E S I Bks. H
s m 35 s xp splz-
l d dms mks
(l, s, l, d l) d pls
, d s sd s pl ds
50 ms. H s sd s d-
j pss ms Js
Hpks Sl Add Il Sd-s d Gw Uss Wls Sl
F S.
K MK Mss s Asss D E
S I Bks w m-
s s l ls
d dms pl. A m w
Ems mz d l-
, s MSFS Il Bsss
d Cmm m Gw Us, MA Il Jlsm m C U-
s, Ld, d BA m Us
Nwsl.
AboUT ThE AUThoRS
7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
4/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
iii
TAblEof CoNTENTS
PEACE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
MEME hE KG AA GA AK CE . . . . . . . . . . . .
ACKwEGME. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
ExECvE MMA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
C. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
PA : EA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3Rs Albl d Pd Ssbl . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Eml, Rl, d Skld Csds Nl Gs Pd. . . . . 6C p d I s C s s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15Pw G . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15Idsl S . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17sp S. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18Cmml d Rsdl S Dmd. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
G G M . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20P Bs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Al Bs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24Ems d F . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
PA : MPCA .. G ExP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28P Dms Nl Gs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28T Pw S d Idsl S. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33Nl s p ll . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35T mm d jbs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36Dms s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38Il P . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38Gpls . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41Il Eml Impls . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
PA : CC A ECMMEA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
5/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
iv
m s s ESI ssmbld sk F
dpd l-s xps, ws xp-
s d ss pdd d s
sd. T lss s p s
s d d ssl
ws mmbs sk .
I M 2011, T Bks Is E- S I (ESI) b -lsd psps s s
lqd l s (LNG) xps m
Ud Ss.
PREfACE
MEMbERSofThE bRookINGS INSTITUTIoN NATURAl GAS TASk foRCE
Kelly Bennett,Bentek Energy, LLC
Kevin Book, ClearView Energy Partners, LLC
Tom Choi, Deloitte
Charles Ebinger, Brookings Institution, ask Force
co-Chair
David Goldwyn, Goldwyn Global Strategies, LLC,
ask Force co-Chair
James Jensen,Jensen Associates
Robert Johnston, Eurasia Group
Melanie Kenderdine,Massachusetts Institute of
echnology Energy Initiative
Vello Kuuskraa,Advanced Resources
International
Michael Levi, Council on Foreign Relations
Robert McNally, Te Rapidan Group
Kenneth Medlock, Rice Universitys James A.
Baker III Institute for Public Policy
Francis O Sullivan,Massachusetts Institute of
echnology Energy Initiative
Lou Pugliaresi, Energy Policy ResearchFoundation, Inc.
Benjamin Schlesinger, Benjamin Schlesinger &
Associates, LLC
Phil Sharp, Resources for the Future
Tyler Van Leeuwen,Advanced Resources
International
N-pp Obss sk F m-
s ldd ls m E Im- Adms d Cssl R-
s S.
7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
6/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
v
l Y G, D Fl, d Cldwll
Bl s sss d p. T
s ls l J Bks, ESI -
sd llw, d d P, dp d
F Pl Bks, l
w. T wld ls lk z lp Gl Cl, Rb Js, d Cs Kp-
sk d d pd pss.
s wld lk k mmbs Bks E S I(ESI) Nl Gs sk F m, s-
ss, p, d w s p. T -
s wld ls lk k s xps
w m ddl ms ps sp ps l s p d
Lk Sm s p. T s -
ACkNowlEdGMENTS
7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
7/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
vi
lss ms sl s pd,
d mss, lls
LNG xp, ld psl d m
p d dmds l s m m-
p dms ss, smbl.
I ls ds , l lbl sppld dmd pjs, sm m U.S.
LNG xps s lkl b mp lbl
mks. T sd ds U.S. LNG xps
lkl mds pwd mp d-
ms ps, d lmd mp m-
pss U.S. ds d jb . I
ds U.S. LNG s lkl mk ps, l-
b ll smll, b U.S. ss
dms pd (GDP), d bl, d
pl U.S. LNG xps mk ps-
mp lbl s s msss s
mml. I ds s pl
ps pl mps m U.S.
lbl s mk, b sd
sppl ds s s-mp lls,
d s b wk l-
lkd p s wks
d -sk sppls.
T sd mmds U.S. pl mks
sld m d lsl
ls wld pm lm d-
dl xps LNG m Ud Ss.
T LNG s, b ss ss-
d w pd, pss, d spp
s, d lbl mk w wll
mp, wll pl pp bds m
D b ll bks l s pd, mjss U.S. l s ss d p-
d ld sppl w sl
p ss s. As sl,
l s pds s w d d-dl ss dmd wd l-
ms. O ppsd d-s s xp
U.S. l s m lqd l
s (LNG). Wl Ud Ss ld x-
ps mds qs l s, msl
ppl, ppsls, sm w
ld d ll pl ppl m
dl m, wld s sbsll
lm LNG xps. T s w
db bw plmks, ds, d -
lss s ms xp
qs U.S. l s. Sm dms -
l s sms d xp U.S.
s wld sl s dms -
l s ps d ps
bssss d slds. Pps l
s xps wld pd l-
bl x d wld b s
m w d jb .
Ts p, sl -l sd, ddss-
s ms sd LNG xps
xm sbl xps d
lkl mpls. I lds ,
m ss, sd LNG
xps m Ud Ss ll -
sbl. Wl w pls m s
ExECUTIVE SUMMARY
7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
8/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
vii
b pl mks lkl sl sbsds
sms xps pds, d
ld dd sqs. T ls
lkl wk ps Ud Ss
s spp lbl d ssm -
zd b w ds d pl.
LNG wll b m xp. I-
ml ss p dms s (s
sl dms dmd xp) l
mp ms ddl ppsd
xp pj, w w m p-
pl wll sll q p d -
sd bs. Es mk
7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
9/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
1
INTRodUCTIoN
mx psl smd. Wl
dms s s b pl -
sd l s s pw, dsl,pml, d sp ss,
s ls sd s m pl mks
d p ss psp U-
d Ss bm s xp LNG
(s g1 ls ppsd d pl
lw-48 LNG xp mls).
T Ud Ss ld xps mds l-
ms l s ppl Mx d
Cd d, l Nmb 2011, m
LNG m K ml Alsk Jp,l l l s l b m-
pl dld.2 Sl pjs l d
sd wld l dlpm
lq ls bl xp LNG
sd qs. Ts ppsd pjs,
sm w b pl ppl
b dl m ps ,
l ld b d ml
ls s-b-s bss.
Lss dd , Ud Ss ws mj sll sppl -l s s dl l pd dss w pd b s dmd. T
s ws s p mps, -
d b dl-m pls, b
s mp mls LNG, w
ws dd s l w m w
dmd.1 S 2005, s s dm-
ll sd. D b ds xpl
d pd l d pps s
p l s 2008, U.S -
l s s s d l s s
ms psl m -l ss sl ms ss
Ns, Mdws, d S b dl-
pd.
El sms sz l
s s d. Hw, s l
pds d d ss lk sd
lbl lms sl s m
s m pl l s U.S.
1 T 2005 E Pl A dmsd Fdl m spp smld LNG mp pss b d 2002 Hkb Ds b Fdl E Rl Cmmss (FERC), w bsld U.S. LNG mp mls mp-ss qms d llwd m mk bsd s; d b FERC xls pp s,s, xps d p s mp mls.
2 T K lq pl, d 1969, xpd Jp mds ms (30 b 2010) s pdd m Ck Il.CPllps, w d p l, d ll pld ls pl M 2011 d bl wsppl s; w, llw qk d sbsq l dss Jp, ddd xd ps pl sx ms llw ddl spms Jp.
7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
10/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
2
Spps s pjs m
wll pd lbl s m
w, s m d, d jb
Ud Ss. Opps d wll
s dms l s ps dm
U.S. sms d l U.S. -
s.
T Bks Iss E S I-
s dk -l sd ssss
sbl d mpls s
U.S. LNG xps. m s s, ESIssmbld sk F dpd l
g 1: Ppsd/Pl N Am LNG Exp mls (s Fb 28, 2012)
S: Fdl E Rl Cmmss, Dpm E
s xps, ws dssss d dlbs
pd bss pjs lss. T
lss s p s l
d d ssl ps ws
sk F. Ts p pss ls
sd, d s sd w ps. P
I sssss LNG xps d
s lkl b bl-
Ud Ss xp m s. P
II lks sl -
sd LNG xps m Ud Ss. P
III pss sds ds d lssd s mmds pl mks.
A -A A Pj
( Eg):
Sabine Pass, Louisiana (Cheniere Energy):
2.2 b/d;ppsd FERC
A A Pj:
Freeport, Texas (Freeport LNG): 1.8 bcf/d; ppsd FERC
Lake Chalres, Louisiana (BG and SouthernU): 2.0 b/d
Cove Point, Maryland (Dominion): 1.0b/d
Hackberry, Louisiana (Cameron LNG): 1.7b/d
Coos Bay, Oregon (Jordan Cove Energy):
1.2 b/dAg A
Corpus Christi, Texas (Cheniere Energy):1.8 b/d; ppsd FERC
Brownsville Texas (Gulf Coast to LNGExp): 2.8 b/d
Note: two other companies are looking toexport a total of 0.3 bcf/day of LNG fromvarious locations.
7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
11/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
3
PART I: fEASIbIl ITY
x w LNG xps l-
m ps sm, d lds
ss lq, sp, d -s, d lbl .
omestic upply actors
T dms U.S. l s sppl s s
dmd pml b ss s: -
s lbl d pd ssbl;
pl, l, d ml sd-
s; d p d s ss.
A P
F s U.S. xps LNG b -
sdd sbl, s b dq d
ssbl dms s bs spp .
Nl s l s ppxml
25 p U.S. pm mx.3 Wl
l pds l m U.S. s
sppl, sl s pd s s p-
d : m 2000 2006, sl s pd
sd b l 17 p;m 2006 2010, pd sd b
l 48 p (s F 2).4
Ad E Im Adms-
F pps s sd, Bkss m dd s s sbl sd U.S. LNG x-ps. Ts s w ddd m
s: dms sppl, dms dmd,
l s mks, d m -
l. O sppl sd, sbl s dd s
psl p Ud Ss
s lms lbl xp. Fs s
d ld: s lbl d pd-
ssbl; l d ml
sds; d s sss, ld-
ppl lbl, s, d spp -
p. O dmd sd, sbl xpss dd b x w pl xps
mp w s dms d ss -
sd l s, ld l -
, sp, d dsl d p-
ml pd. W d l
mks, sbl s x w pl
U.S. xps mp w LNG ss
m dmd, d lds ssssm
pl mks U.S.- LNG wld
s. I ls lds ssssm
l p ms, pll lk bw l s ps d l ps
mks. Em sbl sssss -
s dsk ss b
3 AEO 2012 El Rls Ow, E Im Adms (EIA, 2012).4 Al E Olk 2011 w Pjs 2035, E Im Adms, Apl 2011. pp. 37, 39. (EIA, Apl 2011)
7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
12/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
4
w w d mb dms d ss.
T b mb ps d sd-
s mp d l m
ll bl sl s ss
lms s bl s l-
sp slbl Ud
Ss. Ts sms m js d 700
ll b () sl s 1,800
(s 1). p s mbs -
x, Ud Ss smd js 24
s 2010, ss sms sl s s l wld b
ss bw 25 d 80 s U.S. dms
dmd.6 T sms bl sl s
(EIA), sl s pd U-
d Ss d 4.87 ll b ()
2010, 23 p U.S. d s pd. B
2035, s smd sl s pd wll
46 p l dms l
s pd.5
G l sl s
U.S. s s, m dsss
pl xps s psps
s ssd lbl d dlpm. Fxps b sbl, s m sl d
l ss ds b s d-
ls l pd d mp
Tight Gas
Shale Gas
Coalbed Methane
Other Non-Associated
Onshore
Other Non-Associated
Offshore
Associated Total
Alaska
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Trilli
on
Cubic
Feet/Year
g 2: U.S. Nl Gs Pd b S, 2009-2035 (/)
S: U.S. E Im Adms, Al E Olk 2011
5 Ibd.6 U.S. Nl Gs Pd, Csmp, d N Imps, E Im Adms, (p://www../d/
dl.m?d=770)
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=770http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=770http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=770http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=7707/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
13/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
5
T ssd pd sl s wlls ss
pml ll dlpms w
s: dl (k) p-
ss, w w, sd, d mls
d pss k ms
ppd s; d l zl
wlls (lls) dlld sl l. Sl
s ls d pd psss
b dlp pdl s, mp-
ms x. Cmps w
dll l lls d s
mb k ss mb d
k ss ll sp wll,
ld s lbl ss d
wll pd.8 A lss wll-sp-d-
llss b l pd s d
lm wll b w ss
ll pd s ( pls), b d-
dw p ss pd.
A m mmd sd w d
pd ssbl s lbl dll-
qpm d sklld lb. I dd
dmds l m s mb
sl s psps, s s mp-
m pds sl l d
l ss, w s sm qpm ld pd s m lbl s
mk ps; d m pds w
m sd pls l s
lqds, lbl b-pd d s pd-
. Fms s s El Fd Sl
xs d U Sl O d Nw Yk,
w ds s
lqds pdd w s pd
s s s m pds
ps w s. T dsplm s m d
s psps, s s Hsll Sl Ls, w psps s s Bk-
k ld N Dk, s ld , s
ss ls mp w sm l
U.S. s ss (s d s, ld-
Alsk) 2,543 .7 Bsd
sms blw, sl s ld
bw 29 p d 52 p l
ll bl l s s
Ud Ss.
1. Cmps sl s sms
Lw 48 Ss, (ll
Rbl Rss, xld p
ss; )
Reserve Estimate
(tcf)
ICF 1,842Advanced ResourcesInternational
1,189
Energy InformationAdministration (EIA), 2011
827
Potential Gas Committee 687
S: ICF Il, Add Rss Il, EIA,Pl Gs Cmm.
G P
I dd sz mll -bl ss, w mj s wll
mp ssbl sl s p-
d: pd sl s wlls; d
dmd qpm sd sl s
pd. T pd sl s wlls s
b sbj m db, w sm
ds bss ss dlpd
wlls m p b lss pd s
dlpd d. Hw, pm w
m dpd xps s ssbl
sl s pd s s ss, w d pd mp-
m ls d pd psss.
7 Assmps Al E Olk 2011, E Im Adms, 2011.8 U.S. Nl Gs Rss d Pd Cp, Add Rss Il, ppd C E, Apl 26, 2010.
Exbs Appl Sb Pss Lq, LLC L-m Az Exp Lqd Nl Gs, U.S. Dpm E. p. 275. Als s Nl Gs Ids Fks M Ld, EPRINC B Mmdm, E Pl RsFd, I., Jl 1, 2011. (EPRINC, Jl 2011)
7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
14/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
6
s s sl s pd sd. T
lss 2011 p dd b
S Es Ads Bd (SEAB)
ps d s sl s dlp-
m d bs wll b ll
dbl pss d m-
l mp sl s pd, pl sk
ms pl bs
s dms s.10 C d
ml mp sl s
dlpm s ld m ll p-
ps ps, sm w ll
bs k. F s p, ds ws
l d sl s s m
s lls dlpm.
dd b dl s s
s. Ow ll mpms d
lbl ssd d s lqds-
pls, d pd s kp p dsp
dl (s g 3).9
E, g, C G P
T s U.S. LNG xps dpds l
d dlpm l s.
Ts dlpm sl dpds s d
ssbl p k-
, pss s b d s pbl
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
March
2006
March
2007
March
2008
March
2009
March
2010
March
2011
March
2012
Average Monthly Rig Count
Natural Gas Production (mmcf/day)
g 3: Nl Gs R C d D Gs Pd (Ml A), 2006-2012
9 EPRINC, Jl 2011.10 T SEAB Sl Gs Pd Sbmm Sd N-D Rp, Nl Gs Sbmm S E
Ads Bd, Nmb 18, 2011. p.3. (SEAB, 2011)
S: Bk Hs, EIA
7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
15/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
7
I N Dk, m Bkk sl l
ld, l 30 p s pdd
3 bll b (b) p ms l
d; p d s m pd-
Nb sl m sddls
Cld, Wm d Nbsk s sdd
b ds xps b m .11 T
s pd dlpm NGL-
sl pls, s s El Fd d U, m
smll sl ssd d
s, w s lss lbl l s lqds
(NGLs).
A dm sd ssd , -
sd m msss d -
, l-l msss m l s pd-
s m ssl ls,
ld l. A mb sds b l
lbs, dms, d lss, w-
, dspd s d, ld
l-l msss sl s sd pw-
sll l 50 p s
m l.12
O ml sss b sd
b pps k ld pssbl
lk bw k d ssm dsp,d sss pl mm
w k ps w
xs l l s, ld
sk dw m. T
ls s dspsl wsw
j wlls m s ssm dsp-
s. T USGS s d ssm
sl m k s lms lws smll
b s . T j wsw
m k pss dp wlls s sb-
j s.
E
T m ml sss
d b ddssd sl s pd s
sl d pd bs m
s: w, msss, d pll
s s s d dsp sd b wk-s
.
T ss w s b ms pm
d, w m s b sk
m s w d w bls,
lm w sd pss k-
, d dspsl ws w m
k pss. T sk dw -
m m k s b sbj
s db. Sm ml ds
q ld sp
s d mls w sppls, wl -
mps m l slld
wll ss mbd w dp k
psms w m sd
b w blmk pss
s dk w sppls.
W d msss, mj s s
b l lks l s, - msss, l s, d
. T l ss s pl
l dlpms sm sl l pls,
s s Bkk d Nb. A b ss,
pd l qs pd l
lms ssd l s. G -
s -l lqds pd d
p dlpm s lds, -
s d sp s ss-
d s s b dql dlpd. T
sl s l ms s b d.11 Fm Ds C b N Dk Idsl Cmmss Dpm Ml Rss, Jl 21, 2011. (ps://www.dm.
d./ls/ds/ds-2011-07-21.pd)12 F m sd s Rb Hw l, M d s s p l s m sl ms, Clm
C Ls, 2011. F xmpls spss s sd l lb sds ss s: N Hlm l, Ts mp l s l , Eml Rs Ls, Vl. 6, . 4 (Ob-Dmb2011); Mk Fl l, Cmp L-Cl Gs Gs Emsss m Nl Gs d Cl, Wldw Is d DsBk Gp Clm C Adss, As 25, 2011; d L Cl Gs Gs I Nl Gs Ex, Dl dEl Pd, Nl E l Lb, U.S. Dpm E, Ob 24, 2011.
https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/directorscut/directorscut-2011-07-21.pdfhttps://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/directorscut/directorscut-2011-07-21.pdfhttps://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/directorscut/directorscut-2011-07-21.pdfhttps://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/directorscut/directorscut-2011-07-21.pdf7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
16/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
8
d 2014, w m p sdld
ls 2012. I Ob 2011, EPA
d wld s Cl W A
l dspsl ws w pdd b
k. T s l d ds-
sss w s sklds d wll
ppsd l b 2014.14
T EPA s ls l d wll
s x Sbss Cl A (SCA)
[] ppsd lmk pss
b d ml sbss d mxs
sd dl .15 Akwld
sm ss ld s p,
EPA d wld mplm,
dpl, s s d wld p-
d p ml m-
pds sd k ds.
I Dmb 2011, EPA lsd d l-
ss d m s d
w ql Pll, Wm. T d
p ds d w q
d w d mpds lkl s-
sd w s pd ps ld
dl , d ml smpls
w ll blw sblsd l ds sdds.16 T d p s l-
zd pps k. Rspss
p m s ds pss s
lsss ds d ps-
sbl l sm
mls dsd smpls. O M
8, 2012 EPA, S Wm, d l-
N Am bs d
p w pd wld m p
l p U.S. Gll S
g g G
P
A s d dl m s
jsd k d sps
l s dlpm, d x
w, d ws w, s s m-
plm ls sl s pd wll
mj mp bl xps.
Environmental Protection Agency
T Eml P A (EPA) s
mb s s ppl
l sl s pd, ld -
s ml ss d plls
lsd ( Cl A A)
d w sppls kp m ws
w m lks ( Cl
W A d S Dk W A). T
ppl s EPA d sl
s pd l w smp,
m, d s.13 Ow pss
2005 E Pl A, EPAs l-
dd j ds l
k d S Dk W A s
lmd s ps s dsl-bsd
k ds. Hw, s ddss- ss k
s s.
As qd b Css, EPA s b
sd sl s d k ss
s w s: w wdwls,
s splls k ds, mps j-
dk w, mps wbk d
pdd w, d wsw m d
dspsl. T sls sd d b
13 I Nmb 2011, EPA lsd s pl sd, qs Css, mps dl w ss. Tp ss m s b dl pl sks dk w ss, l sss b sd. (Pl Sd Pl Imps Hdl F Dk W Rss, U.S. Eml PA, Nmb 2011. p. .)
14 Nl Gs ExHdl F, U.S. Eml P A. (p://www.p./dl /).15 Nl Gs ExHdl F, U.S. Eml P A. (p://www.p./dl /).16 EPA Rlss D Fds Pll, Wm Gd W Is Pbl Cmm d Idpd S Rw,
Eml P A, Nmb 8, 2011.
http://www.epa.gov/hydraulicfracturehttp://www.epa.gov/hydraulicfracturehttp://www.epa.gov/hydraulicfracturehttp://www.epa.gov/hydraulicfracture7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
17/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
9
Regional and State-Level Regulation
As l-sl sl s pd s ll
w pm, sl sps l-
mld sss dl-ss-
s jsd b sld. C-
l, ms ss mplm w l
qms l d s pd w
EPA spsbl s sl
s pd ms l sdds ,
ds, d w smp d m.
Wl m mps d
l s ss ps,
ddd p w dl
s ls sld jsd
m: sm k mps dl -
s wld s sl s pd, wl
s s psp sl s l-
qms s pbl pwk
s-ll ls.
Sm bl s- d l-ll l
sl s pd lds:
T xs Rld Cmmsss J
2011 lsl qs dl-
pm ls md
dsls mps dssd dl .19
A mmm b Psl G-
m Cb Ob 2011 m-
plm mmds
ss Mlls Sl Ads Cm-
mss, ld pss xd
lbl pds, s mp s,
d s ds sl-s
wlls m p d pbl bds
w.
(USGS) d bms pbll lbl.17 M
l, EPA pd d -
m lls ps l s
Dmk, Psl, s xs lw-
s s sl s pd.
I dd s s w, EPA s s-
l s s ql d pll.
O Apl 17, 2012, lzd ls l
plls m k-ld ps -
dd sl m ll
mpd (VOC) msss m
mpl dlll d l d s
wlls. T ls, w wll m
2015, xpd b EPA d ms-
ss m sl s wlls b s m s 95 p.
Bureau of Land Management
T B Ld Mm (BLM) w-
U.S. Dpm I ss
dlpm l d s ss Fdl
ld. Wl BLM ds d pp -
k ps, s ps ms b
pd B b mps
m w 30 ds. N- k
ps q p ppl b B.
Hw, s w EPAs s k, s l d w ss
- p. C-
l, BLM mmds d s bs ld
d w mm ps sl s p-
d. S I K Slz s
ls pbll sd s sd pssbl
ls dsls mls sd
k dl lds. Slz d
Fb 2012 l s mps wll b
qd sp wlls k pbl
lds s s dk w sppls.18
17 Sm Pll, Wm dw s, Eml P A, M 8, 2012. (p://sm.p./p/dmpss.s/d0661852598525735900369d/17640d445b4852579bb006432d!pdm)
18 Gs Wll Isps b Rqd Fk, Slz Ss, Bloomberg, Fb 14, 2012. (p://www.blmb.m/ws/2012-02-14/s-wll-sps--b-qd--k-slz-ss.ml)
19 Bll H.B. N. 3328, A A l dsls mps dl ds sd dl ms, 82d Lsl, Gm S xs. (p://www.pl.s.x.s/BllLkp/Hs.spx?LSss=82R&Bll=HB3328).
http://yosemite.epa.gov/opa/admpress.nsf/d0cf6618525a9efb85257359003fb69d/17640d44f5be4cef852579bb006432de!opendocumenthttp://yosemite.epa.gov/opa/admpress.nsf/d0cf6618525a9efb85257359003fb69d/17640d44f5be4cef852579bb006432de!opendocumenthttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-14/gas-well-inspections-to-be-required-after-fracking-salazar-says.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-14/gas-well-inspections-to-be-required-after-fracking-salazar-says.htmlhttp://www.capitol.state.tx.us/BillLookup/History.aspx?LegSess=82R&Bill=HB3328http://www.capitol.state.tx.us/BillLookup/History.aspx?LegSess=82R&Bill=HB3328http://www.capitol.state.tx.us/BillLookup/History.aspx?LegSess=82R&Bill=HB3328http://www.capitol.state.tx.us/BillLookup/History.aspx?LegSess=82R&Bill=HB3328http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-14/gas-well-inspections-to-be-required-after-fracking-salazar-says.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-14/gas-well-inspections-to-be-required-after-fracking-salazar-says.htmlhttp://yosemite.epa.gov/opa/admpress.nsf/d0cf6618525a9efb85257359003fb69d/17640d44f5be4cef852579bb006432de!opendocumenthttp://yosemite.epa.gov/opa/admpress.nsf/d0cf6618525a9efb85257359003fb69d/17640d44f5be4cef852579bb006432de!opendocument7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
18/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
10
Psls pss bll Fb-
2012 llw s l s
l s wlls, w s xpd
b $211 mll s
. Ms m wll m-
ms d b dll P-
sls p Mlls.21
T mp s-ll l sl
s dlpm ws ld b SEAB
p, w mmdd sd dl
d S Rw Ol d Nl
Gs Eml Rls (SRONGER),
d Gd W P Cl, w
xs zs lp ss dlp
ls d bs p.22
O d s s w -
l m d-
lpm sl s ld bs
mmsss; d mpl, w d ll
ms. T x w s lw sp-
sds ms ll-ll ls k-
d sps sl s pd wll
s b ssbl
sl-s dlpm ps.23
E, g,
G E
Wl sl sds s
sl s pd m,
s b ls d d d
lks p k d w
m sd ssm . As
l s l m -
Nw Yks mp mm
k, w ld w k p-
s s. T Gs -
s p wd d m-
l mp sd pbl mm,
sls w wll m ds
w pm k
w sp xmps.
Ws Vs J Sl Cmm
Mlls Sls pss bll -
ss dll pm s, w sd
s lld m
wll sps. T bll, w ls ls
w ms mps s-
ws dm pp, d
mmm dss bw wlls m
ms d dk w, sll ds
b d b ll s lsl.
Cld d Wms md
qm mpl
l s wlls, w s d
ps wld sll sp
msp d mpl ps
wll pd d sld.
T Dlw R Bs Cmmsss
(DBRC, dl s m
mpsd bs ss),
sd w ls l
d s pdd d
w smp d dspslw
bs. Ad DRBC, b
36 p bs ls M-
lls Sl.20
20 Nl Gs Dll Dlw R Bs, Dlw R Bs Cmmss. (p://www.s.j.s/db/ls.m )21 Rm Vs, Psl S L Cs P Fs Nl-Gs Wlls, Bloomberg, Fb 10, 2012. (p://www.bssswk.
m/ws/2012-02-10/psl-s--l-s-p-s--l-s-wlls.ml).22 SEAB, 2011, p.3.23 F xll lss l s Mlls Sl, s Adw Blm l, Imp sl s pl
dms d l l s mks, C I Eml Rs, Us Mld, Ob 2011.
http://www.state.nj.us/drbc/naturalgas.htmhttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-02-10/pennsylvania-set-to-let-counties-put-fees-on-natural-gas-wells.htmlhttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-02-10/pennsylvania-set-to-let-counties-put-fees-on-natural-gas-wells.htmlhttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-02-10/pennsylvania-set-to-let-counties-put-fees-on-natural-gas-wells.htmlhttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-02-10/pennsylvania-set-to-let-counties-put-fees-on-natural-gas-wells.htmlhttp://www.state.nj.us/drbc/naturalgas.htm7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
19/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
11
s d spsbl d ssbl sl s
dlpm s ss m
d pbl pp s k.
T m ds SEAB p d
wl m ss d sl dl s -
l sps s ps,
ls s m l.24 T p mp-
szd l ds spsbl dl-
pm sl s d lld m
sl s ds pd z wld sbls bs p ps, s
m w ls, d bld pb-
l s. T l sd ws pl
s m p, w
d sm d d ssd s
dd d xss ml mps
sl s pd d sq sk
pbl pps s d xp-
s.25 T x w ds s
spsbl skld d sdd s d
x w pbl d k b d wll l b
sbl d sl s dlpm d
sbl U.S. LNG s xps.
ms, sl s dlpm s lkl
pd lms wll mk LNG x-
ps sbl. Hw, l
ldsp mpss ddl ss p-
ds ld mk ml sl s psps
m, d sz m-
ll bl s, b l -
sbl LNG xps. Csl,
wll dlpd ls, pssbl bsd
ssbl bs p, ld pd b pbl, m d ds. T
m b Obm Adms-
w lld $45 mll
s d dlpm pm
bw Dpm E, I, d
EPA d ws d -
ml mp sl s pdsss
Adms spps ssbl
dlpm sl s ss.
E P P
Isp ls pl d
sd, mp sp dss-
24 SEAB, 2011.25 Ibd.
2: Appls Rd b Dpm E Exp LNG m
Lw-48 Ss (s M 23, 2012)
Facility Quantity Location FTA approved Non-FTA approved
Sabine Pass 2.2 bcf/day Louisiana Yes Yes
Freeport 1.4 bcf/day Texas Yes Under Review
Lake Charles 2.0 bcf/day Louisiana Yes Under Review
Carib Energy FTA: 0.03 bcf/day
Non-FTA: 0.01 bcf/day
various Yes Under Review
Dominion Cove Point 1.0 bcf/day Maryland Yes Under Review
Jordan Cove Point 1.2 bcf/day Oregon Yes Under Review
Cameron LNG 1.7 bcf/day Louisiana Yes Under Review
Gulf Coast LNG Export 2.8 bcf/day Texas Under Review Under Review
Cambridge Energy 0.27 bcf/day various Under Review n/a
S: U.S. Dpm E
7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
20/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
12
P g C
T dlpm sl s pls s lkl
pd l dms
U.S. l s mk. Isd pd-
m Mlls Sl s lkl dspl
sm sppls m Gl Cs d
s l s l Ns
mk.29 M, sl sd
LNG xps m Gl Cs d,
m b d s ppls llw s
w wd Gl Cs.
mxmz m pl U.S.
sl s dwm, w xps
dms s, wll b qm
s xps s l
l s ppl wk, pll
Mlls Sl. I 2010, Ml-
ls pds pdd w l
1,100 wlls dlld d ppl ss.30 ICF I-
l, sl, sms 3,300 dd-
l mls ppl wll b bl N-
s bw 2009 d 2035.31 T s l
6 b/d FERC-ppd ppsd ppl
p wll dl s m Mlls
dmd s. M 2 b/d sp s sdld b mpld b sm-
m 2012.32 A s w s
ppl s wk wll b dlpd
qkl lqd- pls, s s
El Fd, Nb, d U Sls, ll
p l s b pdd. As -
g A E
Cmps lk s xpd l-
s xp LNG m Ud Ss
d ss mb dl l
qms. Ts ld qm
mps sk xp z m
Dpm Es O Fssl E
mp s sbj -
d m (FA) w Ud Ss
(s 2).26 Ops lk md
xs LNG mp mls ms b p-
pl m Fdl E Rl Cm-
mss (FERC).27 O dl s
l pp LNG xp ls -
ld U.S. Cs Gd, w, m
spsbls, pds s s d
p ls; d Ppl d Hzd-
s Mls S Adms, w s
jsd ll ppls. Ud Nl
Eml Pl A, LNG xp ls
m ls b sbj ml ws
m Eml Imp Sm,
Eml Assssm d ms
Cl A A, Edd Sps
A..28 (S 1).
C C
T sbl U.S. LNG xps dpds p
bl s l s s-
spp pd, sp,
s, d spm l s.
26 Ts ds ws w b Nmb 2011 FA bw Ud Ss d K, wlds sd lsmp LNG.
27 Ml R, Pl W. Pmk, Ld L, U.S. Nl Gs Exps: Nw Opps, U Oms, CsslRs S, Nmb 2011. (R, Nmb 2011).
28 S R, Nmb 2011 xm dl ls d ppls dd b LNG xps.29 m C d P Rbs, N d : Iss N Am l s mk Dl
C E Sls, Spmb 2011. (Dl, 2011).30 T Bs Es: E Mk Fdmls Rp, Bk E, M 19, 2010.31 K Pk, Dd Fs, d E. H Vds, N Am Mdsm Is T 2035A S E F,
ps d p ppd b ICF INGAA Fd, J 28, 2011. (p://www../Fl.spx?d=14900 ).
http://www.ingaa.org/File.aspx?id=14900http://www.ingaa.org/File.aspx?id=149007/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
21/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
13
Ud Nl Gs A (NGA) S 3 (15 USC 717b), xp l s m Ud Ss -qs zs m Dpm Es O Fssl E d m FERC. Blw sm pms ms b ppd b l xp l s:
E Eg z1. Iss xp z s dpd p xp b dmd ss w pbl
s. DE s ss pms p ml l lm, d d sbsqppls w d b pbls s.
) A pj s dmd ss w pbl s d m xss bw U.S.d LNG-p .
b) I U.S. ds d ms w s w LNG s b xpd, O Fssl E ms ss pm lss ds s pbl s pbls- ppl Fdl Rs sk pbl mms, pss, d s .
EC z , G 1. A ppsls s, s p ls s xp l s md x-
s FERC zms b ppl m FERC. C s m ls q ls m U.S. Cs Gd Dpm sp. Appd ppls ssd C Pbl C d Nss.
E A1. B zs q l pjs pd mp pbl d -
m, d w Nl Eml Pl A (NEPA).
2. A Eml Imp Sm s dd ppsd mj dl s xpd sl ql m. O mps dld, sm ms b p-pd b l Rd Ds b ssd.
3. Pjs w lss--s mps sll q dm. I ml mps , Eml Assssm ms b ppd d dm EmlImp Sm s ss. I Eml Assssm ds pj d sds s ml mp, Fd N S Imp p s pdd.
4. Pjs pd s mps ll m b pssd s C-l Exlss. Ts ms s pjs d q pp EmlImp Sm Eml Assssm.
C1. D pps dm qd d NEPA, Dpm E d FERC
ms ls d mpl qms pplbl z.
) F xmpl, ls b sdd ld Cl W A, Cl A A,
Edd Sps A, d Nl Hs Ps A. Ts m q l-m ppl s dl, s ll ll.
b) Bsds ml qms, LNG xp pjs m q mpl w s s--ld qms m s s, ld Dpm spsO Ppl S (w s sd w Ppl d Hzds Mls S Adm-s), Nl F P Ass, d Fdl Em Mm A.
1: Appl Pss Nl Gs Exps
S: Adpd m R, Nmb 2011
7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
22/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
14
d sm pd.34 A sml d s
B Sl xs, w
pd s md dsp
dl .35 Wl sppl dll-
s ms dq, mk
qpm d ss sd kp-
ll -pss pmp qpms
d lkl m s m.36
mks dll d mpl qp-
m sl ss k ss.
h C
Hm pl l l d
s dlpm ss s ls s sppl.
Ad Nl Plm Cl
(NPC), s b 75 p ds
pml-ld s llm s
1982 Ud Ss.37 M, w
x s, b 50 p wk
s ds wll b lbl m. T
dmd plm s, d
sls ds
ld, s s , w NPC w
sdbl m s ll
l d s ds.38
Fl ld ss w plm--
dpms p lk s
d dlpm (R&D) d, w s
s l p dql
ppl jbs dbs s.
Wl sm sll pbl R&D d-
s b md p b p-s spp,
ld b, s qs l s -
l b d sm sl ss U.S.
md-. O w d s
s b sdd b Wms O S
Lds d Isms, w s ppsd
pl w ls pms wld
b qd m ps wlls s lds
b d m 15 ds
mpl. Abs s s
, s pssbl dl m
wll sk l l d l s
wlls. I dd ss ppl -
p, ls s b dq
l s s s, pll
Ns, l sms
ppl p sld pmp sml s-
ms sd s p.33
g P
E s s sp -
s dl sd lms d w
l bss l s pd,
m b lms m lbl qp-
m d qld plm s d-
lp s. d s s dll-
lbl U.S. l s s
s mlzd, s g 3 llss. T
sd pd w dll s s
sd s sppl s kp p w
dmd. F xmpl, Hsll Sl
pl Ls, ll m 181 s
Jl 2010 110 s Ob 2011, p-
d sd m 4.65 b/d 7.58 b/
32 W 2011-12 E Mk Assssm, Fdl E Rl Cmmss, Im N: A-3, Ob 20, 2011.
33 MI, 2011. p. 145.34 Pd Rss B, Hsll Sls E s R Cs Fll, Platts, Ob 11, 2011. (p://www.bk.m/
ITNws.spx#Al5402 )35 Fm w w K Mdlk, Fllw, E Sds, Jms A. Bk III Is Pbl Pl, d mmb
Bks E S I Nl Gs sk F, Nmb 15-16, 2011.36 Cmmd Ps, S Css d Hd: A d p pl d p 2012, Mq Eqs Rs, Nmb
11, 2011.37 Pd Dlpm - Rlz Pl N Ams Abd Nl Gs d Ol Rss, Nl Plm Cl,
Spmb 15, 2011. p. 1.38 Ibd.
7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
23/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
15
m s d p dlpm
s dd.
omestic emand actors
I Ud Ss, pl l s xps
wll mp w w pm mks
smp l s: pw--
s d dsl s, ld
pml pd. T psps -
sd l s dmd sp,
mml d sdl ss s sl
sd sl s pd lss s.
P G
Dmd l s l s
s b smld b sd sppl
d lw ps, d b ml
s l-d . T EIA s-
ms l s pw pls wll
60 p w l p dds
bw 2010 d 2035.41
Nw d sd EPA ls wll pl m-
p l dm m l-
d ms l UdSs, d, , mb l s
pw pls b bl. T EPAs Css-S
A Pll Rl (CSAPR), w s md
ll sl dxd (SO2) d s x-
d (NOx) msss m pw pls 27 U.S.
ss b -pl pll
d z dj ss, ws sdld
b mplmd J 1, 2012. Hw
Dmb 30, 2011 ws dld b dl
ppl d s s d w m
djsms. A m w, l- d b dd ppl.
dms q msm bw
sp ds ddl mps d
l-m ds s. E s
d R&D d s w pdd,
m ls b m l b s d-
q sppl plm s mk.
g C
T sssl xp LNG wll dpd p
ss spp s d p-
b pl. C E s lk
xp p 2.2 b/d s m s Sb Pss
LNG ml Ls.39 Dpd
sz LNG ssl, s wld q bw
d spks p wk. I d
mmd s lm l sps, sm d-
ms U.S. ps wll q ddl dd.
O spp-ld s ld s
ssls d dq Cs Gd p-
pd s (xps ms m
Cs Gd Ww Sbl, S, d
Em sdds p ppl); d
p s ls, pll As. Is-
spms As wll dpd p-
Pm Cl, w s l
smll mmd ms LNG ks. Hw-, pld xps l s
mpldxpd b 2014l 80
p wlds LNG ks wll b bl
pss sms, sl dm
dl spp ss As.40
Ms pl p bsls LNG xps
lkl b s-m sqs -
s sm l kp p w
pd ss sl s pd. O
m, s lkl s blks wll b -sld s mks spd d ll s-
39 C Es xp pm m Dpm E llws l pd 1b/d w pssbl xps 2.2 b/d.
40 Mdm-m Ol d Gs Mks 2010, Il E A, 2010. p. 264.41 EIA, Apl 2011. p. 74
7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
24/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
16
Cl Cmbs Rsdls (CCRs):
l l s d
ws b-pds dspsl;
Gs Gs (GHG) sdds: p-
ps ls GHG msss s-
dds w d xs l -
ls. T GHG sdds w
lsd M 27, 2012 d sk
s l lms m -
b dxd ll w pw pls
m. T ls xpd lm
s w l-pwd pls
wl mk l s pls s-
l .
ICF, sl s mdld s p-
l s d s md pj-
s bsd EPAs ppsd ls d
xs l pw pl , sms
l 40 ws (GW)ql
A sd EPA l, d M
d A xs Sdds (MAS), s sdld
J 1, 2015. T MAS
wll ppl zds plls (HAPs)
ld m, d ld, d
pl m m ll pw pls. Ts
sdds, w w lzd Dmb 16,
2011, pjd sl 90 p -
d m msss. T sm d
EPA ssd s l Mxmm Abl C-
l l (MAC) l. T l, b
pmld d Cl A A, qs
l-d pw pls pll -
ls m, d sss d plls
ql bs 12 p p pls.
O ls ppsd b EPA ld:
S 316b Cl W A: -
q l w k ss
Bs l Albl (BA)
mmz ml mps;
15%
g 4: P Exs Cl Rd b R, 2020
S: ICF Il
7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
25/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
17
l-d pw pls, m w wll b -
pld b m l-s pw pls.
T mj pl b m
bd U.S. l s s dsl s.
T s l sms l 32 p
l l s dmd, 85 p w
s smd m.46 Ad
EIA, dmd l s dsl
s s pjd w b 27 p bw
2009 d 2035.47
T dsl s s l p-ss w
sp ps. Bs l s s
pm dsk m dsl sms
s s ms pml pd-
s, dsl s ws l d b
ll l s mk l
1990s d 2000s. Ad Dw Cml,
s ld dsl mps,
l l s p ss 167 p m
1997 2008 sld l d-
dsl dmd 22 p.48
T sl s bm s m dsl pd-s d ml mps p -
s U.S. dsl d m m-
pss d pmls pd. A
Dmb 2011 p b PwsC-
ps, dd ss w Nl
Ass Ms, s s
U.S. m d sl s
dlpm d sss mll ddl
d 12 p l-d -
slld pwll b d b 2020.42
Cl pw pl ms wll b -
: pls Ss d Mdws (w
m l pls ld) wll
blk d, s ls ld ls
s w l s s pdd l
lms d dsb wks b
dlpd (s g 4).
Vs mdls pjs w ds-
plm l-d wld m
l s dmd, w wll b pm
plm l. T sms s
l s dmd pw s
m 1.1 / 3.5 /. ICF pjs
s s dmd
s w l s pw pls
s xs dl l s mbd
l (NGCC) plsld ql bw 1.6
d 2 /.43 Dl, sl ls
s mdls s smp, pjs
s dmd pw s b
s m s 10 b/d, l 3.5 /.44
Ds Bk sms 3 b/d s
ld pl b 80 ls , smll-, d ld l-d pw pls.45
Wl ddl dl ml pls -
ml l-d pw pls lkl b m
w s pps, ms pjs ssm
s s ml ls wll
ll b mplmd. T sl s lkl
b ddl ms ld, lss
42 Dms Gs Us Pw S, ps b J Bl ICF Bks Nl Gs sk F, As 3, 2011.A ps ICF ssssm pjd 51 GW ms, b wl ppsd ls sw m xbl lppsls, d m l pls xpd m l.
43 Ibd.44 Dl, 2011. p.5.45 Ul Gs, ps b Adm Smsk Ds Bk Css Bd Fm E Isss, M 13, 2010.46 Ibd., p. 101.47 EIA, Apl 2011. p. 68.48 U.S. S Cmm E d Nl Rss; T F Nl Gs, sm G Blz, V Psd, E d
Clm C, Dw Cml; Jl 19, 2011.
7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
26/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
18
dl b s. Wl ACC ds
mk xpl ssmps b sp
U.S. l s sppl
p l s, ls ssms ssd lw
s ps, d sll l--s p
. Wl sm lss m k lm
ss w ssmps bd pjd
jb- s, s l U.S. p-
ml d m s wll b
pm mp d pl b
bd dms l s. I P II,
sd wll lz mp U.S. LNG xps
pl ss ds-
l s.
Nl s s ls d sbsl m
s l sp
s. Fllw s S U ddss
J 2012, Psd Obm s b pm-
s l s b pss d
-d ls (HDV).52 T Nw Al-
sp G Ams Sls
(NAGAS) A w ppsd lsl
wld pd x s s
l s mml k s,s sd pll LNG s
HDV . (T lsl ws dd s
mdm sp Bll M
14, 2012.)
Fdl s ld b d
ps d p mpssd -
l s (CNG) ls. T 2005 E Pl
A zd ds p 80 p
ml s ps CNG ls
( ds xpd d 2010); dl
m jbs ld b d EIAs -
sl s s ( w 50 p
m sl s s d l -
s) mpd w s lw sl
s ( w 50 p lss s d).49
A pl s s s
l pd d m
l-bsd ds Ud Ss. El-
, w s ppl mp
ds m -z s-bs,
s pdd m , bpd l
s. Cp dms l s s pdd
ml pds lbl mp d-
d lpd-
, pll mpd w pds E-
p w l s dd ppll m
p, l-bsd pd. Bs d l
ps dppd plll w s p-
s Ud Ss, U.S. dsl pds
s lbll mp . As sl,
mb dsl pds lk
s pls Ud Ss.50 B
MlS s p k
Ws V ( s k Mlls)
d Dw Cml d Sll Cml -
d pls xpd d p, spl,
ks Gl Cs. Ad lssb Am Cms Cl (ACC),
ds d ss, 25 p s
sppl Ud Ss ld
sl 17,000 d w jbs ml
ds, 395,000 d jbs, d d $44
bll ddl dl, s, d ll x
10 s.51 s s
ACC psms s $16 bll
p pl, d lds ssssm
dd mpsmplm d p sp-
pd b spd s mpld dl
49 Sl Gs: A Rss U.S. M, PwsCps, Dmb 2011.50 Sl Gs d Nw Pmls Ism: Bs Em, Jbs, d U.S. M, Am Cms Cl,
M 2011. p. 19. (Am Cms Cl, M 2011)51 Ibd.52 Cls Eb, W Ds S U M E Pl, Brookings Up-Front Blog, J 27, 2012. (p://www.
bks.d/ps/2012/0127_s__pl_b.spx)
http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2012/0127_sotu_energy_policy_ebinger.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2012/0127_sotu_energy_policy_ebinger.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2012/0127_sotu_energy_policy_ebinger.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2012/0127_sotu_energy_policy_ebinger.aspx7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
27/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
19
s ql mddl dslls
s s spplm sbs dsl
sp s ls . T
s p ss ssd w GL
pd, w 20,000 bl pd pl
s ql $115,000 p bl p
d p.55 Lqd ls pdd b GL
wld mp dl w d l-dd
ls. A sp ll d-l ps wld -
mk GL sl m. Wl
psp p d bd sl s s -
wd s GL pd Ud
Ssw SASOL S A
pls sbl sd $10 bll pl
Ls l ld m d sbsl
pl sm qd, w
sk mp w ll l mk, ps-
s lls GL-pds
l . Dsp s l sbl d
pbl pl, l s s U.S.
mml d pss s s LNG,
CNG, dd m GL pds -
lkl s lmd w sbl
bs mj pl s.
C
T psps sd l s s
mml d sdl ss s sl
lbl bd sl s ss
ls mds. EIA sms sw wdl
ssmps sl s pd l-
ls 2035 (5.5 / Lw Sl EUR
s ss 17.1/ / H Sl
EUR s) sl ll smll s
mml d sdl s smp
(0.5 d 0.3 , spl).56
x ds 30 p s l
s m l qpm, p $1000,
pl l d 2011. Hw, dsp
xs d ppsd pl -
s, l-sl s w m l wd
l s l s lkl
m.
Wl LNG-pwd HDVs dms
mp s ss d ll s
pbk pds d mss,
ms ss q l l d-
ls bw dsl d LNG, d mbs
l mls p lz ss
bs wld d pbl.53 A p-
l d s sssld lmd ,
lk xs l s, d
ml s pmm LNG ks
d $70,000 lkl p
wdspd s l s bs
d s sbsds m-
ds.54 M, m k mps
dpd k sl mk s,
pll As. W l LNG ds-
b s As, LNG ks wll b
lkl s mk p,
lm U.S. s LNG ks.
T lsl ll l p-
p pss l l
s s . Obsls ld s
( ds l s s lw
sl, q m q -
l NGVs sl-pwd s)
d l l ms NGVs
sl qls.
T psps l ls dd m s-
-lqds (GL) pss s l
53 Al Kpk, Wll Nl Gs Vls B O F?, Rss F, M 2011. p.1354 MI, 2011. pp. 123-124.55 D m ClVw E Ps.
7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
28/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
20
A wll-sppld lbl s mk wll U.S.
xps w pps xps; sm-ll, s mk, w sppls
lmd, wll pd m pp
U.S. xps. O dmd-sd, s xps
wll mp w l sbss
s s l, l, d l l
, d l sp. Dmd
s mps m ls b d b spd
l s dlpm ddl
s.
T l s mk b ddd
w mj s dd N Am:
P Bs d Al Bs. B
s mks sppld b LNG spms
Global Gas Market
U.S. l s xps wll l mp w
dms ss dmd lsd b;
wll ls mp w ss sb
LNG d ppl s lbl mk. T
dml l xp l s s
U.S. p s lw p -
mks, w l s s psd
m xps l-m s
dxd p l, ld pp-
b. (S g 5 d
bw mj lbl l s p
bmks.)
$20
$15
$10
$ 5
$0J-00 J-01 J-02 J-03 J-04 J-05 J-06 J-07 J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11
UK (NBP)
Japan LNG Imports
US Henry Hub
g 5: Bmk Nl Gs Ps U.S., U.K. d Jp ($/MMB)
S: ICF Il
56 EIA, Apl 2011.
7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
29/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
21
ls lq p wld), N-
, d Asl. As sl, l b Id-
s d Mls w sll, spl, s-
d d d ls xps LNG 2010,
s lbl l s mk s
dwdld l 20 p, d m dl
s dms s smp ss.
Nlss, P Bs xps, w lms
xlsl s P mks, sll pj-
d s q s sl mj lq-
p dds Asl, w s
xpd s m s 12 b/d xp
p b 2020.58
Wl b 45 p P Bss l
s dmd s m b LNG mps m w
, ddl 40 p s dmd
s m b LNG mps m sd ,
(m w m m Q, Ids, M-
ls, N, d Asl) s wll s b pp-
l s. E mp d xp s d
sppl d dmd ss wll
b w Ud Ss wll b
bl mp s ss sppl.
Pf
T P Bs s sll b -
s lbl LNG mk. D
l d md-1990s, Ids d Mls
d l l LNG xp m-
k, d Jp d S K d
ppxml 70 p mp mk.57
d, Ids d Mlss sppl dm-
s b dd b m w
LNG xps ld Q (w s
229
311
247205
194
1,130586
427
611
1,557
1,973
4,021
346
331
191
219
565
1,288
710
385
145
3,261738
741
664
625
1,528
289
222
184
526
U.S.
Canada
Mexico
S. & Cent. America
Europe & Eurasia
Middle East
Africa
Asia Pacific
Pipeline gas
LNG
g 6: Wld Nl Gs d Flws, 2010 ( bll b )
S: BP Ssl Rw Wld E 2011
57 Wld LNG Rp 2010, International Gas Union (IGU), Spmb 2011. pp. 6-9 (Il Gs U, Spmb 2011).58 Fm w w Lk Sm, E Als, Cmmwl Bk Asl. M 19, 2012.
7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
30/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
22
w Jps l pl. T -
w ms ll dmd pbl,
w s w Jps l m pw-
.61 I m w m l
pw, s m Jps l
pd wll lkl b m b ddl LNG
spms. I s smd 2012, Jp wll
q ddl 974 b LNG mk p
l sll sl m F-
ksm d d d l
pw .62
Wl Jp s dll b l p
l s smp As, m
s C d Id s b -
s mp ss As s m-
k. Al d l sppl b
s s b dmd b l, b -
s xpssd s xpd l
l s. T Il E A
pds s dmd C d Id m
w s s s 7.7 p d 6.5 p, sp-
l, p 2035.63 O ps s,
b s bm s mps
l s, mslxlsl, s
Id m LNG. B C d I-
d md s sms LNGs s w sx LNG mp
mls l d s C
d w Id (w xs ml ls
d xps), d m xpd
. I dd LNG mps, C
mps s m kms ppl
ss Uzbks d Kzks, s p-
ss dlp ppl w
pml m Mddl Es d Rss.59 Q-
l d 11 p Jps
LNG mps 2010. Q pd p-
dml ss b Ep (msl
U.K.) s mk d P Bs s mk.
C d sppl lbl sp
mk s lkl b s As k d-
P Bss ps. Hw,
m xs sp p
LNG pd, Mddl Es wll ll
xss sppl p. Ts s p bs Q-
s ps s p s w
Es As mk d pl bs
s mm dlpm Q-
s N Fld, w w Is S
Ps Fld, s ls s ld wld. A-
s lmd xss sppl m
Mddl Es s Om, w s s-
d ls Mddl Es LNG xp As,
s xp dl LNG xps s m
s s b smd dmsll. I, w
s wlds sd ls s ss, s
ppsd sl LNG pjs, b s b -
bl mplm m bs ss.
Gs dmd As ms s, ld b J-
p, S K, d w, w d m l ll lbl LNG mps
2010.60 Jp, wlds ls mp
LNG, s s pl s pjd
l s dmd s sl d
Fksm l pw pl llw
qk M 2011. T l d,
w s sd s-m sdw ms
Jps l s, s ls pmpd
59 BP Ssl Rw Wld E 2011, BP, J 2011. (BP, J 2011)60 Ibd. I s mp Ud Ss Nmb 2011 d -d m (FA) w S K s ll b
pjs b ppd xp l s l llwd xp LNG s w wm UdSs s FA. O S K, l s w s p d FA w Ud Ss Cd, Cl, Dm Rpbl, d Mx.
61 A pll Jp dmsd mj Jps pbl s ps s xs l s.Jp pll ds 74% spp l ps-, Nuclear Power Daily, J 14, 2011. (p://www.lpwdl.m/ps/Jp_pll_ds_74_spp_l_ps-_999.ml)
62 E Clls Jp 3.11,ps b K Km, C Ems, Is E EmsJp, pm Hd Us, Ob 21, 2011, Bs, Mssss.
63 Wld E Olk 2011 Spl Rp: A W E Gld A Gs Il E A, 2011. p. 23. (IEA, 2011)
http://www.nuclearpowerdaily.com/reports/Japan_poll_finds_74_support_nuclear_phase-out_999.htmlhttp://www.nuclearpowerdaily.com/reports/Japan_poll_finds_74_support_nuclear_phase-out_999.htmlhttp://www.nuclearpowerdaily.com/reports/Japan_poll_finds_74_support_nuclear_phase-out_999.htmlhttp://www.nuclearpowerdaily.com/reports/Japan_poll_finds_74_support_nuclear_phase-out_999.html7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
31/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
23
s d CBM pd d ddss sss
ld dl , s s w
smp, m, d dspsl. T x-
w l s ps dld
wll ls b w qkl dms
l s wll b pdd s pd-
mps wll q m s
b d ss pd. Ul
s pd wll ls q l p-
d psl s, b w
l s sppl b C d
Id. T m s pll b d-
dssd Cs d Id sms
N Am sl pls. T l
wll q s , pll s
ppl wks b C d Id
dql dlpd d s sm
lm ps ms .66
E Pf
Ow w s dmd, lmd dms-
sppl, d m d d xps p-
s, As pss --mdm
m pp l s xps m
Ud Ss. T xps Pm C-
l b 2014 wll llw LNG ks s sms, b mp ms
U.S. Gl Cs LNG spms Es d
S As mks. Ts wld mk U.S. x-
ps mp w Mddl Es d
Asl LNG xps .
Hw, lls d s -
m b dmd d sppl sd. T
dlpm ds l s
C Id m s
Mm, d s l b d dss-
ss w Rss pl ppl -
. Id, w ds l s
ppl w , s lk d-
lp s l ppl pjs, m
kms, Mm, Om, d I.
Hw dmd s s s -
s w wll dpd mb -
s, ld p m w,
pls sbs lspml l,
l pw, d ld spd d sl
w l s b dlpd.
W l dmd s pd s
s ss S d Es As, s
ls l pssbl LNG smp-
wll b s d sbsl l
dmd wll pss. Hw, wl l d l
wll mk p l p
mx, l s dmd s pjd s
sdl, pmp d m sm
mps d spp dms pd-
, pll l s. T EIAs
lbl sm sl s ss s-
ss Id d C l 63 d
1,275 sl s ss, spl.64 T
l-bd m (CBM) s ss smd b qll s: s-
sssm Cs CBM ss s 1,306 d
sms Ids CBM ss m 71
162 .65 F b s, s sms
l s smld l
s l s pd. Hw-
, dlpm s ss s lkl
b md--l m pps. T l-
d pl m b s
wll d b mdd mmd sl
64 Wld Sl Gs Rss: A Il Assssm 14 Rs Osd Ud Ss, U.S. E Im Adms, Apl2011. p. 4. (EIA, Apl 2011b)
65 Esm C s m: Hj Q, S Rs C Ol d Gs Rss, Ms Ld Rss, Clbd MExpl C, dpd m l ps AAPG Al C S A, xs, Apl 20-23, 2008.Esms Id m: M.P. S d Rks Sx, Ss Cl Bd M Iss Id, Glimpses of GeoscienceResearch in India, p. 233.
66 Ad p m Bs Rs, sl, Jl 7, 2011.
7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
32/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
24
ss Pd B. T s m s ld s
xpd l m Alsks N Slp
Vldz Alsks s s, w wll
b lqd d xpd.67 Ad FERC,
l Cd xp l-
s d sd Bs Clmb:
ppsd 1.4 b/d ml Km (l
pd wld s 0.7 b/d), w -
d 20- xp ls Ob 2011;
ppsd 0.25 b/d l Dls Isld;
d pl 1 b/d l P Rp
Isld. G lw sp ss (s
sl s ds), Alsk d Ws
Cd xps m p b s
s mp m U.S. LNG
P Bs.
A
T Al Bs mpss pdml
s mks Ep, pll Ep
U. O Sp d Ud K-
dm, w mp 76 p d 35 p
l s m LNG, spl,
ms Ep s dpd pp-
l mps m Rss, Nw, d Al.
Al, Q, d N ppl LNGxps .68
Ep l s mps dmd b
sl Rss s Ep sms
, l-dxd ps. Dsp dls
Rsss w ls l s lds (U
d Ymb), s l s pd s p-
jd s b l -d bw
2010 d 2035.69 Ad Il
E A, xps m Rss wll s
b l 67 p sm pd,w m w m m sd
l s, dmp dmd LNG
mps . A sm
Jp m s l pw sd -
l pd; ll,
--xpd p l
Jps l s wld sppss s
dmd. A s Asl LNG
pd sl Q m-
m s dlpm ld dsp
sppl pjs, s ld ds w
l l ss. F
s, Dmb 29, 2010, Nbl E,
U.S. l d s xpl mp, dsd
bw 14 d 20 s Isls s
L s ld. S , s
Es Md xpl
pll smll l s lds. A mb
l l s dss Mzmbq
ls pmpd l s bld s-
lq p Ss
A . T ql (lw sl d
b-dxd ) d lqd-
Mzmb s m mk s s s-
mp lbl LNG mks
mdm m.
Fll, xps LNG xp pm Alsk d dlpm LNG x-
p p Ws Cd m pd
s s mp U.S. Gl-s
LNG. Al Alsks K LNG xp
l, w s b xp smll q-
s LNG Ns As 40 s,
s b dld mpl, sm mps
dmsd s l-sl xps
LNG m Alsk Es As. O M 30,
2012, ExxMbl, l w s pj ps
BP d CPllps, sld dsp w Gm Alsk dlp s s -
67 Y Rs, Alsk, Exx dl ps w LNG xps, Reuters, M 30, 2012. (p://www.s.m/l/2012/03/30/s-lsk-ppl-dUSBRE8212I20120330)
68 BP, J 2011.69 IEA, Nmb 2011. p. 306.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/30/us-alaska-pipeline-idUSBRE82T12I20120330http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/30/us-alaska-pipeline-idUSBRE82T12I20120330http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/30/us-alaska-pipeline-idUSBRE82T12I20120330http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/30/us-alaska-pipeline-idUSBRE82T12I201203307/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
33/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
25
s mb b ss d w
d pps l ms
l mb s s. M,
Gms ds l ps
s xs l s, s
s lkld m sl l-
s wll b md p sd
l s smp, b spp
dmd d s ps ( m
pl mpls pl U.S. LNG xps
Ep, s P II).
I dd Rss mps, Ep s lkl
s s LNG mps. Dsp xss
s pmls 42 p-
ld 2009w s l-
s pld mb Ep -
s.74 I s dlpms dd
LNG mp p, sm l
ppl s d sd x-
p dlpm dls. M
s ppsd ppls m Mddl Es,
Cl As d Rss, (Nb d S
Sm, s) sdd -
dl ms l d l-
sl bsls d xpd b m-
pld m. Hw, sm lssd ppl s, s s
s-Ad Ppl (AP) m lkl
md-m. T AP ppl wld s-
p s m Azbjs S Dz s ld
l Ep k, w
xs S Cd Ppl (SCP) ds.
As s s As, l s dl-
pm Ep m pl l l
ppl d LNG xps As.70 Nw s
ls mj sppl l s Ep
d s pd s pjd s
x w dds b pl.71
Hw, s wll mps pp-
s dl dms pd U.K.
d Nlds, w sll sbsl
pds l s.72
As sl, pps
l l s m Rss wll -
d dld b mmss
Nd Sm ppl, s ppl
dl s Rss w EU. Rss -
s b 31 p Eps l s
mps.73 Wl s l s l-
sp bw Rss d Ep sms
wll , p lsp bw
w ps wll dm w m s wll b
mpd, d w wll b p-
p U.S. LNG xps. Hsll, ms
Rss s xps Ep dpd b
l-m s w s sld l-dxd
ps. Hw, w w LNG s p-
sl dsd U.S. w lbl
lbl mk, s b s sp-
mk d sw sms smss d m m p pls
-p s d b l
sppls LNG. T sl s b sd
pss p Rss s xps d -
sd mk pw p sms
l-dxd s w Gzpm,
Rss s-wd s mp. Gzpm
s d sm s w
s sms, pml Gm; w
70 Ibd., p. 312.71 Ibd., p. 165.72 I s mp l U.K. pd s dl, xps m U.K. l Ep
I ppl bw U.K. d Blm s. (Rl Ep Gs? ps b P Nl,Us Cmbd El Pl Rs Gp E Pl D Fb 24, 2011 Cmbd, U.K.
73 BP, J 2011.74 Ak H, European Natural Gas Demand, Supply, and Pricing: Cycles, Seasons, and the Impact of LNG Price Arbitrage, Oxd Is
E Sds, (Oxd, UK: Oxd Us Pss, 2010). p. 167.
7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
34/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
26
sl s dmd dsp
Al Bs. T dlpm s sp-
sb w
d w sd sppls Rss, Mddl
Es, d N Awll ls mp
psp LNG mps m Ud
Ss. W ds s sppl ld-
lw sp ps Ep, pp-
LNG b U.S. s
s lw P Bs. T pl
Al Bs sl s dlpm wll ls
s b l-m ps-
p LNG mps Ep .
C A G M
I dd P d Al bss,
sl smll LNG xp ps
U.S. sd-l s Cbb, Mx-
, d Cl. M Cbb s -
l b d l pds pw -
, p s bm sl
xps s l ps s. ds s
mx, Jm s sd s
LNG ml; Cbb s
m llw. I dd s smll mks,
b Mx d Cl pl mks U.S. l s. Wl s xps
Mx wld lkl m ppl m
xs, Cl pss pl pp
LNG mps m Ud Ss. Cl,
w s -d m w Ud
Ss, l mps m 90 p
s l s m LNG (83 p
w m m Eql G, Ep, d
dd d b 2010).76 O
wld mp Cls l s mps wll b
dlpm sl s A. TEIA sms As sl s ss
Al Bs s mk. G
Es Eps dpd Rss -
l s sppl, sl s ss ld ps-
p m d pll b. Ad-
EIA, Uk d Pldw
smd 42 d 187 sl s ss,
spl b pll sd
dlp sl s sss. Hw, sm-
l l s dlpm As,
l d s bsls wll mk
l-sl sl s pd -m
dl. M, sm ps Ep
s pbl pps sl s pd-
w m dlpm d-
ms ss sm s d s.75
F s bd dl d sm
ml d pbl pps ps
lk swp, l lsl
s sl s pd.
E A
T psps U.S.- xps A-
l Bs s s. I pml
dpds lbl ppl s m
Rss, Al, d Nw d lbl
LNG m Al, N, d Q. I lsdpds dmd s l-
s. Gms ds l
ps- s l s ws pd b
Swzld, w ddd ps s -
l s, d Il, w ddd s
bld w s. I s Il, m
s dmd wll b m b l
s. A sml ds F,
l s m -qs
s l m l pw b w s
mds psdl l w l pl s pm sss, wld
75 A Ep Am Gs C Ps Nmb 15-16, m spks sd pbl pps dl s d sl s pd Ep. (Sl s dlpm b slw m, spks w, Platts Oil &Gas Journal, Nmb 28, 2011.)
76 BP, J 2011.
7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
35/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
27
ms . Wl ddl ss
s sz, ll ds,
d l ss, MI pds pl pl
s s LNG sppl :
MMB s, sms lq ss
$2.15, spp ss d $1.25 (dpd
l ss d sp ds), d
s ss $0.70.79 I s ls mp
sd mps sd xp-
LNG wll d s p spd
wll d m ls 10 12 s,
bd p-pl d l s.
Bsd ss lq, sp-
d s, mmm d
bw l LNG ps d U.S.
p l s ds m l
$3.40 s U.S. LNG s mp.
M sss lsd ps ss
b p dms s.
Hw, xps msls ls lkl
p l s s
ps ddl s dmd. T
l p mpl LNG xps, s wll s
m d -m mpls
LNG xps, s dsssd P II.
774 d ls sl s ss
wld.77 I A dlps s s
ml m, ll xp ds
wld b Cl, b d Cls pl
LNG mp ds.
E g
T dml m ll -
l s xps s p dl bw
dms s d ss mks. I d-
d s dsk, s-
l ddl xd ss ms b k
sd w ssss m s-
bl LNG xps, ld s lq-
, sp, d s. T -
s ddd lq ls s
bw $2 bll d $8 bll , dpd
p.78 I d s s
ls mps lk xp s ms
pl l-m s sl
LNG. sp ss dpd sz
ssl sd m LNG, s spp
l, d ds s l.
Rs b spsbl
sppl d sp-
77 EIA, Apl 2011b.78 R, Nmb 2011.79 MI, 2011. p. 25.
7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
36/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
28
PART II: IMPlICATIoNSof U.S. lNG ExPoRTS
P I s p sd s wll bl Ud Ss xp sd lms LNG. T llws ddsss mpls s xps.
Fm psp U.S. dl -
m, ss mpls s wd ms
pbl s. Ud xs lsl, x-
ps l s s w d
m (FA) w Ud Ss , b
lw, dmd b pbl s d -
z s qd b w md-
dl. Pjs lk z
xp LNG s w FA, w l 96 p lbl
LNG dmd, qd b ppd b
S E lss, pbl ,
Dpm E ds s xps
not pbl s.80 Al l-
l d pbl s s xpll
xs lsl, d pbl
sms b ls m Dpm
E, pbl s lds:
Adq dms l s sppl; Dms dmd l s p-
psd xp;
Em mps xps ( GDP,
sms, d ds);
U.S. s; Jb ;
U.S. bl d;
Il sds;
Eml sds;
Css w DEs pl p-
m mk mp
d81
T s w s w ddssd
P I. T md s s d-
ms d l mpls U.S.LNG xps.
omestic mplications
T dms mpls U.S. LNG xps
ld mp l s ps, l
s p ll, jbs d mpss, d
ll s.
P G
T dms p mp l s x-
ps wll b s dm
80 LNG sss m BP, J 2011; 96 p ds ld S K w s sd b d d mplmd FA m w Ud Ss. F ll x lsl p l s xps s Nl Gs A (NGA) S3 (15 USC 717b), (p://sd.s./sd-/swb.x?d+sw+1316+1440+12++%28%29%20%20)
81 Rdd m sm b Csp Sm, Dp Asss S Ol d Nl Gs, O Fssl E, U.S.Dpm E b S Cmm E d Nl Rss Nmb 8, 2011.
http://uscode.house.gov/uscode-cgi/fastweb.exe?getdoc+uscview+t13t16+1440+12++%28%29%20%20http://uscode.house.gov/uscode-cgi/fastweb.exe?getdoc+uscview+t13t16+1440+12++%28%29%20%207/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
37/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
29
G l sz
sl s s bs d w
U.S. m, s ss (b
bsl d xp) w ppld l-
bkd ss:
A s, bsd EIAs 2011 A-
l E Olk;
A lw-sl smd lm
(EUR) s, w sl s pd
m w, dlld wlls s 50 p blw
s s;
A -sl EUR s, w sl s
pd m w, dlld wlls s 50
p s;
A m w s, w U.S.
GDP ws 3.2 p s ppsd
2.7 p ssmd s.
G ssmps, -
sls ws spsl wd. T sls
m 9.6 p s (m $3.56 $3.90/
m) dms l s ps 2025 d
xps ( s sl s , lw
xp lms d slw xp w)
32.5 p s ( s lw sl
s , xp lms d xp w). T p pmm
dms l s ps 2025 s-
l bsl s p s-
m s dld 3.
I dd p pmm xp
l s xss s, EIA sd
pjd s-m spk l s ps
s sl LNG xps. As g 7 blw l-
lss, 2015, s LNG xps
, dms l s ps s pdl -l l xp p s d. I lw-
pd s ps pk 2016, 6
b/d xp p s bl 2 s;
w Ud Ss sld xp
LNG. Wl s ll kwldd
dms p s wll sl m l-
sl LNG xps, sz p s
s sbj db, w mb sds
ss pssbl ms. T m-
p sds w lz sls
d lss s xs sds
ssmps d mdls sd w
mk p ss. Blw sls d
mdls mj p sds d
b EIA d sls: Dl, ICF
Il, d N Csl, w
pblsd w sds.
2012 Eg A
I J 2012, EIA pblsd sd -
ld E Isd Nl Gs Exps
Dms E Mks.82 T sd, d-
d qs O Fssl E
Dpm E, lzd d-
xp ss ss d s
bs m ssmps pj p
spss LNG xps. I dd bs-
l s, w LNG s xpd, EIA
mdl sdd d xp ss:
A lw xp/slw w s,
w 6 b/d LNG s xpd,
psd 1 b/d p ;
A lw xp/pd w s,
w 6 b/d LNG s xpd,
psd 3 b/d p ;
A xp/slw w s,
w 12 b/d LNG s xpd,
psd 1 b/d p ;
A xp/pd w s,w 12 b/d LNG s xpd,
psd 3 b/d p .
82 E Isd Nl Gs Exps Dms E Mks, E Im Adms, J 2012. (EIA, 2012).
http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/3.90/mcfhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/3.90/mcfhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/3.90/mcfhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/3.90/mcf7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
38/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
30
w LNG ld b xpd. T sls
EIAs lss ps xm s
LNG xps. I xs LNG mk,
s pll lkl lw-pd
-pd ss wld mlz.
T m ssmp spls UdSs wld xp 6 b/d LNG b 2016.
G , m w, l l
s b ppd xp 2.2 b/d -
FA s s 2015, s lkl
pls wld b ppd d bl
s s m m.84 T l s,
Ud Ss wld b xp 12 b/
d LNG b 2018, sss x
sl s, Ud Ss wld w m
xp lbl lms LNG
l -d lbl LNG xp -p. N l wld s sppl w p
w lbl LNG dmd, b s p
dd wld ls mp w l
-slw s, l s ps
pk 2026, 12 b/d xp p-
s bl 12 s. T mmd jmp
p bms m pd ss
w LNG xp p ss qkl. I
lw-pd s, p l spks l 18 p b bsl s;
-pd s, l s ps
pk 36 p b bsl s. Ts
p mp s xbd Lw Sl EUR
d H Mm Gw ss, s LNG
xps dms l s m-
ks. I ms xm xmpl, -pd
s xps Lw Sl EUR s,
p l s pks m 50 p-
bsl s.83
T w s sld b sdd
w p sls s p mp
sd. T s s ssmp d
3: P Is Dms Nl Gs P Rl Bsl S, 2025
Scenario BaselineScenarioProjected
Natural GasPrice in 2025
($/mcf)
Low Export-
Slow Growth
Low Export-
Rapid Growth
High Export-
Slow Growth
High Export-
Rapid GrowthCase
Reference Case $4.70 10.0% 12.8% 14.3% 25.7%
High Shale EUR $3.56 9.6% 12.9% 13.2% 24.2%
Low Shale EUR $6.52 13.7% 17.0% 20.2% 32.5%
HighMacroeconomic
Growth$4.99 11.0% 13.4% 15.6% 28.1%
S: E Isd Nl Gs Exps Dms E Mks, E Im Adms, J 2012.
83 Ibd.84 O mj LNG xp ppls w ppl -FA xps, wld q x plsFp LNG, Lk
Cls, d Dm C P b ppd Ud Ss xp p ss 6 b/d sld.
7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
39/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
31
EIA p sss, Dl sd ps pds dlp m ss
p dmd w, s s LNG
xps. T wll b mpl d m
d xps mk sppls l-
bl.86 Us dm mdl, w pd-
sd p w dmd,
Dl sd d 6 b/d xps
LNG wld sl , , 1.7 p -
s (m $7.09 $7.21/MMB) p
l s bw 2016 d 2035.
F, Dl sd d wld
b l s s l
s ps sl m LNG xps. As ms
ppsd lq mls x-
pd b Gl Cs, p H
Hb s, w s k bmk l
s m Gl Cs, wll s b $0.22/
MMB b 2035 s sl U.S. LNG xps.
Ts s m dbl p s p-
jd s w m LNG x-
p mls. I Nw Yk d Ills, ls ps pjd s b lss
$0.10/MMB. Ts s pll mp
11 b/d Asl- LNG s x-pd mk d sm m.85
T sd ss s mdls ssmps
ml sm l s pd
s sl sd xp p. T spk
p dpd g 7 s bs -
sm m s pds ls ddl d-
md. I mdl, pds spd ,
p, ddl dmd. F s -
s, ps pk xp p s lld,
b sdl ds. I l, xp- dmd wld lkl d s
pds s ddl pd b-
ml dmd s. As sl,
s ps wld lkl b l d
pk lw ll ssd b mdl.
A l sd lsd Nmb 2011
m Dl C E Sls
ld pd-sps s mdl.I dd d LNG xps wld
pd smll s s ps
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
2010
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
2028
2031
2034
Reference Case/
Low-SlowReference Case/
Low-Rapid
Reference Case
High-Slow
Reference Case/
High-Rapid
g 7: P Is Dms Nl Gs P Rl Bsl S,R Cs 2010-2035
S: E Isd Nl Gs Exps Dms E Mks, E Im Adms, J 2012.
85 Asl s ppxml 10 b/d LNG xp pjs ld d l sm ds. Ms s p sld d w md xpd b sld sp mk. M 90 p s p s xpd ml bw 2014 d 2017. (As w w lss Cmmwl Bk Asl, M 19, 2012.)
86 Dl, 2011.
http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/7.21/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.22/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.22/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.10/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.10/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.22/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.22/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/7.21/MMBtu7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
40/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
32
dm sppl mdls, ds ll k -
ps
sp ddl pd. As sl,
ks s sm sppl w
pl. T p kwlds p
ms mdld s lss sbls
pp mps xps [] m
l s ps.89 Ts sd ls dd
m dsl
s s mj sm l s llw-
sl s l. T sd ssms
l s smp b dsl
s wll dl b 0.3% p 2035. B
s, EIA mdl ssms dsl
s dmd wll s b l 1% p
sm pd.90 T ICF sd -
s s lls pd sps m
s p. Ud s 6 b/d xp
s, p mp s m $0.52/
MMB s m sps dll
s $0.75/MMB s
lss sps dll s.
w g?
G s sds s l s p-
s w dds , s dl d-m w sd s ms . ( 4
sws mps p mp ss
s mdls.) Hw, plmks
wld b m b dsd
sls d m p.
Ts lds s ms l sls
m p. F s, llw -
ls EIA sd, m mms w
qk l l s ps ld -
s b m 50 p s sl LNG
Ns, w sll xp-
s sm s l s ps
, b wll b m dlpm
d smp l s m b
Mlls sl pl.
T sds lzd p
mps U.S. LNG xps. I As 2010,
N Csl d 2 b/d LNG
xps wld s p s bw
7 d 7.9 p m 2015 2035 l
s w s xps. ICF Il
d As 2011 6 b/d xps
wld sl 11 p ($0.64/MMB)
s l s ps sm p-
d.87 M l, N lsd
sd lzd mp w sp
xp ss. T s s mdld
mp 3.6 b/d LNG xps m
mls N Am: Sb Pss L-
s, Km Bs Clmb, d Cs B
O. T sd s mdld m-
p 6.6 b/d LNG xps m
md xp pjs d 2 b/d
ddd xps m Gl Cs d 1 b/dm Mld.88 Ts N sd d
6.6 b/d LNG xps wld sl 6
p ($0.35/MMB) s l s
ps m 2015 2035.
As w EIA d Dl sds, sls
b N d ICFs sds ms b -
lzd x sp md-
ls d ssmps. Ns s sd
ss m s sppl mdl, w, lk
87 Rs d Em Isss Rld LNG Exps, ICF International, As 17, 2011; d Mk Alss Sb Pss LNGExp Pj, Navigant Consulting, As 23, 2010. p. 5. (p://www..m/~/md/S/Iss/E/C_LNG_Exp_Rp_E.sx). I s mp b N d ICF xpld ss d ss; w, pps s p, w lzd p mps ss d ss w w ms lkl. F s, N sd lzs p mps xps 1 b/d d 2 b/d. G Sb Pss LNG xp ml s ldd 2 b/d, s sd ss xp s.
88 Jd C LNG Exp Pj Mk Alss Sd, Navigant Consulting, J 2012.89 N Csl, As 2010. p. 5.90 Al E Olk 2011, E Im Adms, U.S. Dpm E.
http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.52/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.52/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.75/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.64/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.35/MMBtuhttp://www.navigant.com/~/media/Site/Insights/Energy/Cheniere_LNG_Export_Report_Energy.ashxhttp://www.navigant.com/~/media/Site/Insights/Energy/Cheniere_LNG_Export_Report_Energy.ashxhttp://www.navigant.com/~/media/Site/Insights/Energy/Cheniere_LNG_Export_Report_Energy.ashxhttp://www.navigant.com/~/media/Site/Insights/Energy/Cheniere_LNG_Export_Report_Energy.ashxhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.35/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.64/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.75/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.52/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.52/MMBtu7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
41/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
33
sw b, LNG xps lkl s
dms ps l s, ss
sqs s w mp ss. I
lss, b Dl d EIA d
mj63 p, d b sd-
s xpd l s wll m m
w pd s ppsd dspld smp-
m ss. B s, bw 17
d 38 p sppl l s xp
wld b m b dd dmd, s ps
pss sm dms sms s lss s.
I pw d dsl ss,
p mps LNG xps lkl
mds mps. I pw s, -
l s s sll b sd s bk p
l d l bs-ld . F s
s sd m, s l
ps s sl LNG xps wld b lmd
b s mpss l ls: s
s s bms m xps l-
bk p , pw pds
wll sbs w m s.91 Ad ICF
Il, $0.64/MMB s p
xps. Hw, s d ssmps
bd s mb: ws bsd p
l s d ms xm
ssmps xps d dms s
bs. A m mps lss sld -
ld ssssm p mp
m 2015 2035. W dss bw
s sds, plmks sld d
w ssmps ms smbl xs
l s mk d s lkl d, d
w mdls ms mplx
dms d lbl l s d.
Assm ls lms l s xps
s wll s sbl sppl sps b l
s pds mp sds. I s
mp sppl s
s sds d ps
ms ml pd.
T P
P I dd pw- d -
dsl ss wld ms d-
md wl lbl l s ss. As
4: Sd-b-sd mps A P Imp m 2015-2035 6 b/d
LNG xps (lss ws d)
StudyAverage Price without
Exports ($/MMBtu)Average Price withExports ($/MMBtu)
Average Price Increase(%)
EIA* $5.28 $5.78 9%
Deloitte $7.09 $7.21 2%
Navigant (2010)**(2 bcf/day of exports)
$4.75 $5.10 7%
Navigant (2012)*** $5.67 $6.01 6%
ICF International*** $5.81 $6.45 11%
* P mp EIA sd s s, lw-slw xp s.** T N sd dd lz xps 6 b/d.*** N (2010 d 2012) d ICF Il sds bsd H Hb p.S: EIA, Dl, N, ICF I l.
91 Im d ICF Il d Dl.
http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.64/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.64/MMBtu7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
42/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
34
l s dmd ws s pw
s. T EIA Al E Olk 2005
pblsd w wll d ps
w $7/MMBUpjd l s
dmd l s wld s b
70 p bw 2003 d 2015.96
Ulk pw s, w d
bld l-s d d pd
s s ps, dsl s ws
l d b w l s mp
dpd, s ps, d s p l-
l. Bw 2000 d 2005, p -
l s sd b 99 p d LNG mps
m dbld.97 B 2005,
p l p l s ws ppx-
ml 6:1, js blw 7:1 l--s p -
w U.S. pml d plss p-
ds lbll mp.98 T sm
Al Gsp, -Cm Fdl
Rs, d bs l s p
ss N Am s-s ds-
[ws] wkd mp ps.99
S p l s s llpsd.
I 2011, l--l s p ws m
24:1. I 2012 s b . Tdl l s ps s lzd
dsl s. A j sd b PwC d N-
l Ass Ms, ds
d p, d dlpm sl
s ld s ms s m s $11.6 bl-
l p dsk ss 2025.100
Nw sms pml d plss
l s wld sl l p -
s bw $1.66 d $4.97/mw-
(MW), dpd w s s sd s
ml l l. Dl sms
p s l wld b m
$1.65/MW.92 EIA sms l
p mps wll b ml s wll (bw
$1.40/MW d $2.90/MW) xp -
pd xp s.93 T EIA Al E
Olk 2011 sms , w xp
LNG, p l (ss ll -
ls) 2035 wll b $92/MW.94
I l m, l s s sl lkl b
sd m bs-ld . T pd -
s sl s pd, pld w
ms s m s 50 ws (GW)
l-d l d pl bl
d pssbl m EPA ls
s lkl s dmd l s
pw s. Ad sm lss,
-m dmd sd b ms
lds d ls l-d pw pls
ld sl ddl l s dmd
2 b/d.95 G lk mll
d mll bl ls, md
s s ps s lkl sl lm w m l s, l sd
ss wll b sd sms. Nl s
smp pw s s b sd-
d m ps m s
sl m LNG xps s
p-mp pjs. E p sl
s l, w l s ps w ,
92 Dl, 2011.93 E Isd Nl Gs Exps Dms E Mks, E Im Adms, J 2012.94 EIA, Apl 2011.95 Ad p ClVw E Ps Wk Pp.96 Al E Olk 2005, E Im Adms, U.S. Dpm E. p. 159.97 Ad EIA sss.98 Ad EIA sss, 2005 p B Cd l ws $54.57 p bl d p l s H Hb ws $8.67
p MMB, l--s p ( - ql bss) ppxml 6.3:1. T 7:1 sld s d Am Cms Cl p, Sl Gs d w Pmls Ism, M 2011. (ACC, M 2011). O bl d l s l 6 MMB.
99 Rmks b Al Gsp, Cm Fdl Rs, b Nl Pml d Rs Ass C S A, xs, Apl 5, 2005. (p://www.dls./bdds/sps/2005/20050405/dl.m)
100 Sl Gs: A ss U.S. m? PwC w b m Nl Ass Ms, Dmb 2011.
http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/4.97/megawatthttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/1.65/MWhhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/1.40/MWhhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/2.90/MWhhttp://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2005/20050405/default.htmhttp://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2005/20050405/default.htmhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/2.90/MWhhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/1.40/MWhhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/1.65/MWhhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/4.97/megawatt7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
43/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
35
d b pdd.102 Isd s
pd xps sls sd p-
d s l s lqds, w s
xps b s s pd b
pml ds.
g
A mj m dms d ss
l s s pssbl s
l s p ll sl m -
s U.S. LNG xps. As g 8 dm-
ss, p ll xpd d
2000s ws s dms s mk
s xpd ps dds.
T ll l s mk
2000s ws ll sd b sppl-dmd
bl. Nl s dmd sd sbs-
ll s U.S. m w d l s
ws wd s mll pbl l
pw . Ts s dmd
dd w d dms sppl
d sd l mps. T
s U.S. l s pd s sld
lss mk ll s 2010. Ad
EIA, sdd d p -l s ( l ssl d ll)
bw 2010 d 2011 ws -d w ws
d 2000s.103 Pl xps U.S. LNG
s sm dms sms w p-
pl ss: ll dms -
l s ps; d xps dms l
s ps l ps sl-
bw lw U.S. ps d
l ps.
T s s m d d q- s lsp bw d-
pd ls
Es d Ss, ll pdd
lbl xps l s.
Opps LNG xps d s -
sms wld b dd s -
sl ss p l s. Hw-
, d sss mp
d U.S. dsl pds l
s mps Ws Ep d As s
lkl b d sl b pjd
s l s ps sl m LNG
xps. As Ep d m As p-
ml pds s l-bsd pds s
s p d l l s dsk, U.S. m-
ps m lkl j s s
d ss mps. E
-d dl smd p d
l 2035 wld sl l--s
14:1.101
T s ls pl sd xps
lp dsl sms. E, lqd b-
pd l s pd sl U.S.
s pls, s pm dsk l,
pml pd sd wd
pds. Ad sd b Am Cms Cl, ds d
bd, 25 p s pd
wld ld $32.8 bll s U.S. m-
l pd. B pd mk
p d s, LNG xps wll d-
dl pd l s lqds (NGL)
pdd ss w d s. A-
d EIA, pd sd
b l 30 p bw 2009 d 2011 s
l s pd m sl sd w
sbsll. E pd s w ll-m , w m mll bls p
101 T Il E A ss p l 2035 b $140. T l p -d m EIAssd s p 2035 (w 6 b/d xps) s l 14:1 ($98/bl:$6.98/MMB). Ol p m Il EAs Wld E Olk 2011.
102 D m EIA Nl Gs Pl Fld Pd sss.103 Ad lls EIA l s p d, sdd d dms l s ps 2010 d 2011 s b 0.54.
http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/6.98/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/6.98/MMBtu7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
44/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A
36
T j
T mm d jb mpls LNG
xps dpd w ppl s: s
m d m xpl p dls
d s lbl mk; d
mplm mpls s s, dms l s ps, d dms-
l s pd. T Dpm
E s mmssd sd b
mm d mplm mpls
U.S. LNG xps, w wll b lsd l s
. Ts sd wll pd ql ssss-
m mpls LNG xps
U.S. m d mplm.
LNG xps lkl b b
U.S. m, l pbbl sb ms l U.S. GDP. Exps
U.S. l s wll k d bs
xs pds spls sl m
p dls bw l s
mks Ud Ss, Ep, d As.
Cl ms wll dm w s spls
ms l s p ll d LNG x-
ps. Hw, ss LNG
mk lkl lm ll. LNG s bd
b l ss: ms b lqd d
spd ddd ks b -
mls w s l
ms b slld. Lq ls -p lms w m s
LNG. I p ls- ll -
p, s ls wll ll s
dmd l s, l
p sppl sk wld ll mp
dms s ps. M, lk l d-
, w xpllslls
ml bl pd s
bdd lbl mk, p lm
LNG pd d xp ms LNG x-
ps s-lmd dmd l s l s l s
dms smp. As ms LNG s-
ls bl pj bss
d dpd b l-m s, s d-
md b pd b mk s
d, d lkld ll.
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1 713
19
25
31
37
43
49
55
61
67
73
79
85
91
97
103
109
115
Price($/Mc
f)
Month Number
1980s
1990s
2000s
Standard
Deviation:
1980s - 0.43
1990s - 0.37
2000s - 1.9
g 8: Nl Gs Ps 1980s, 1990s, d 2000s, b m ($/M)
S: EIA
7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger
45/56
E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E
L q u M A KE t : AE G
Top Related