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Thinking:How we do it
& can we do better?
Professor Karen Carr
Cranfield Defence and Security
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What is Thinking?
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Observe
Orient
Decide
Act
Detect / Collect
Recognise / Structure / Understand
Identify / Prioritise / Select
Apply / ConfirmDirect
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Information (in real world or representation of world)
Non-targets Non-targets + Target
RESPONSE
“Nota Target”
CorrectRejection
Miss–TYPE II error–False negative
“Target” False Alarm–TYPE I error–False positive
Hit
‘Target’ examples:• Intent• Person• Solution• Pattern
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Observe
Orient
Decide
Act
Detect / Collect
Recognise / Structure / Understand
Identify / Prioritise / Select
Apply / ConfirmDirect
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Some Implications
• You cannot increase your probability of being right without also increasing your probability of being wrong
• To improve performance you must change the characteristics of the ‘processor’ (your thinking)
• Understanding thinking and practicing it helps you do this
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Exercise – Thinking Awareness
• You will be presented with some problems to think about
• Can you identify what kind of thinking you are using for each problem?
• NB These exercises are used to help you think about your thinking – getting the answer right is not so important!
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Keeping these 6 circles, move one circle only to make an L-shape with 4 circles on each arm of the L.
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Lessons
• ASSUMPTIONS• Importance of exploring the problem
definition before the solution• Use of analysis and insight
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The objects below have something in common:
Which one of the following three objects is the next element in the row?
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Lessons
• Seeing with different perspectives• ‘Letting go’• Creativity vs. analysis
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Intelligence
• What kind?• How much? Bird
ChimpHuman
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Multiple Intelligences
7 “Frames of Mind”: – Linguistic– Logical-mathematical– Musical– Bodily-kinaesthetic– Visuo-spatial– Interpersonal– Intrapersonal
• PLUS?: Naturalistic, Existential
Howard Gardner, 1983
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Effortful
Automatic
Conscious ThinkingAnalysisReason
Non-conscious ThinkingIntuition
Experience
Deliberate
Explicit
Systematic
Tacit
Holistic
Primary
Fast
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Cognitive Styles
Allinson and Hayes (1996) The Cognitive Style Index
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IntuitionHenri Poincaré, Foundations of Science, 1908
One morning, walking on the bluff, the idea came to me that the arithmetic transformations of indeterminate ternary quadratic forms were identical to those of non-Euclidean geometry.”
(Poincaré, quoted in Hadamard, 1945, pp. 13–14).
“I turned my attention to the study of some arithmetical questions apparently without much success ............I went to spend a few days at the seaside, and thought of something else.
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Exercise
• Please refer to hand-out
• We shall not ask for your answers to be attributed
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Prediction
Yellow Group > White Group
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Anchor Point Effect(Source: Kopelman & Davis, 2004)
A series of trials conducted over 13 years revealed an average of
High estimates 45%> Low Estimates.
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Would you like to buy?
Iyengar and Lepper
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10 x more likely to buy
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Framing Effect
Same information – presented differentlyYou can both mislead and be misled
“25% fail”
“Problems if you don’t” “No problems if you do”
“75% pass”
Allow natural death Do not resuscitate
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Metaphors as Framing
“Crime is a beast”
Enforcement
“Crime is a virus”
Systemic reform
Initial metaphor not remembered
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Storytelling
“Strategic leaders create a drama that resonates with members”
(Boal et al. p.421)• Leader role in creating meaning, shaping reality,
developing a sense of self in others, developing and distributing ideas, encouraging behaviours, stimulating connectivity, developing expectations.
• Use of ‘stories’ to do this.
BOAL, K.B. & SCHULZ, P.L. (2007), ‘Storytelling, time and evolution: The role of strategic leadership in complex adaptive systems’ The Leadership Quarterly, 19, 411-428.
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Heuristics and Biases
• ‘Hard-wired’ thinking that we are born with• This type of thinking evolved to help us function
efficiently in our natural environment• It biases us to respond quickly, be social, keep
mental resources free for the unexpected
(See Annexes in JDN 3/11)
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Thinking and Emotion
• Brain biased by emotions • Advantageous for social
and interpersonal behaviour
• Decision making depends on emotions (Antonio Damasio)
http://faculty.txwes.edu/mskerr/files/3304_ch2.htm
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“Intuition”: Good or Bad?
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Non-Conscious Intelligence
1. Short-cuts, rules of thumb, quick solutions that have evolved in context - “hard-wired”
2. Creativity, learning, dealing with complexity and ambiguity, making use of experience – slow to build, fast to extract
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Developing Creativity
1. Preparation
2. Incubation
3. Illumination
4. Verification
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• Lots of stimulation - connections
• Do the unusual – swap hands, change environment, speak to different types of people
• Gestures (enact metaphors)
• Analogy –stretch it• Role play• Individual thinking and
pairs
Immersionhttp://w
ww
.scubadivingpackages.net/tag/packages/
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Incubation
• Do something else• Sleep• Go for a walk• Don’t think
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Illumination
• Early rise• Deadline• Ritual, signal• Bin the good ideas (don’t get attached)
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Implement and verify
• Rational sifting• Watch out for heuristics• Context effects
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What we have learned
• Non-conscious intelligence• Good for creativity• Good for complexity• Good for collating experience and using
it fast• Prone to heuristics and bias
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Ways of Thinking
Two fundamental functions:
Consciously OR non-consciously
DIVERGENT:
Constructing, expanding, exploring
CONVERGENT:
Deconstructing, reducing, selecting
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• The grass is wet……therefore……
• The lights are out….therefore….
• The car is too expensive…..therefore….
• The telephone is ringing….therefore….
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Exercise
From the statement below, what deductions can you converge upon – eliminate all assumptions, extract the basic fact(s). You can take the statement to be true as given(!).
“A red car was travelling above the speed limit on a country road.”
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Applied Knowledge?
• Assumptions– Which limit, which road, where was the car travelling?– Weather, time of day (not expect speeding on snow?)– Travelling (on its own, on a lorry, etc)
• Images– Type of car– Traffic (associations with country?)– Occupants? (Associations with red car and speeding)
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Lessons
• ASSUMPTIONS • Inferences• Implicit sense-making• Effects of experience and knowledge
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Some other creativity techniques
• Embodied metaphors (paths, boxes)• Lateral thinking (e.g. concept fan,
random word)• Visualisation (thought experiments)• Avoid obstacles:
o “Not my area”oNeed for closure, controloFear of failureoBeing judgemental
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Asymmetry in creative thinking
Value ‘lateral move’ - not finding solution
De Bono
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Concept Fan “Put object on ceiling”
Object to ceiling
Raise me off the ground
Lengthen arm
Self propel
Piggy back on anotherobject
Stick
Rope
Throw
Sticky ceiling
Sticky object
Spikey
Lower ceiling
Model aircraft
Fix object to ceiling
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DIVERGENTWAYS
CONVERGENTWAYS
Conscious brain
Non-consciousbrain
Thinking: Ways and Means
Inductive reasoningHypothesis generationLateral thinking
Creative thinkingIntuitive developmentAnalogy
Intuitive decision makingInsight“Thin slicing”Expert judgement
AnalysisDeduction“Slow thinking”
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A ‘convergent thinker’ sees a limited, predetermined number of options.
By contrast, a ‘divergent thinke’r is always looking for more options.
Many of us get stuck in convergent thinking and, as a result, don’t see the many possibilities available to us.
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Clear Analytical Thinking
• Practice makes perfect• Techniques can be mastered• Few people have studied logic
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How to ask a question
• Why might Jane Smith have omitted to do a risk assessment?
a) She forgot
b) She was under time pressure
c) She thought it was unimportant
Divergent becomes convergent – which type of thinking do you want?
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Ontology Problem
Eggs
Flour
Milk
Recipe
Bowl
Whisk
Oven
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Ontology Problem
Training Equipment
Personnel
Information
Doctrine
Organisation
Infrastructure
Logistics
Independent? Subordinate?
Which common properties?
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Defence Security
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Given:
All terrorists are extremists, and some extremists are killers.
Therefore which follows:• Some terrorists are killers• Some killers are terrorists
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Extremists
Terrorists
Killers
We don’t know where ‘Terrorist’ or ‘Killer’ are with respect to the blue circle
All terrorists are extremists
Some extremists are killers
Some terrorists are killers?
Some killers are terrorists?
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Lessons
• Clarity with conceptual thinking needs practice
• Asking the right question depends on conceptual clarity
• Finding the right answer depends on asking the right question
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Need for Thinking
Thinking Capability
Adapting Thinking to the Situation
SITUATION – MORE COMPLEX THINKING- MORE AGILE
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DIVERGENTWAYS
CONVERGENTWAYS
Conscious brain
Non-consciousbrain
Thinking: Ways and Means
Less Time
More Information
More TimeMore People
More ambiguity
Experience
OrganisedSocial
Rules
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Observe
Orient
Decide
Act
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Skilled Thinking
• Use all types of intelligence• Be aware of innate and cultural biases• Recognise you are making assumptions• Clarity and discipline with concepts• Understand the situation and adapt your
thinking• Practice cognitive management
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Exercise – Diagnose Your Thinking
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Bramble Town
8000 Residents Home of R.L. Headlington Winner of Britain in Bloom
Bramble Arts Festival: 1st – 6th August 2014
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Police Community Support Officers
Powers:– Issuing of fixed penalty notices (e.g. riding
on footpath; dog fouling; litter) – Power to confiscate alcohol and tobacco – Power to demand the name and address of
a person acting in an anti-social manner – Power of entry to save life or prevent damage – Removal of abandoned vehicles– For example; reporting vandalism or damaged
street furniture, reporting suspicious activity; providing crime prevention advice, deterring juvenile nuisance and visiting victims of crime.
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DIVERGENTWAYS
CONVERGENTWAYS
Co
nscio
us
thin
king
No
n-c
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scio
us
thin
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START: What assumptions are embedded in the formulation of the problem/situation?Does anything need to be challenged in the problem given?
• Are you exploring the problem first?• Have you introduced different perspectives?• Don’t get attached – put good ideas to one side and move onto get even better ideas
• Are you closing down too soon ? (Don’t converge until you need to)• Have you identified assumptions?
• Can you take time out – or at least focus elsewhere and then return to the issue?• Stimulate more brain parts by using different techniques
MID-WAY: Step back and review what you should be doing and what you are doing - have you characterised the problem and the phases of problem
solving?Are you using different ways of thinking - appropriately?
• Watch for confirmation bias, framing, anchoring, availability• Where can experience and knowledge help, and where might it mislead?
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Confirmation bias: see what you expect or wish for, pay more attention to evidence supporting this, discount evidence against
Framing: influenced by the manner of presenting or articulating the information
Anchoring: judgement inadvertently recalibrated by the presence of other information even if irrelevant
Availability: judgement inadvertently skewed towards factors that are more familiar
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