Zyck Yemen Building Blocks May2015

Steven A. Zyck 13 May 2015 Dead Sea, Jordan

Building Blocks for Yemen in 2018: Security

Steven A. ZyckOverseas Development Institute& Centre for Security [email protected]

UN Yemen ConsultationDead Sea, Jordan12 May 2015


Overall Messages

• Process of building negotiating capacity and cohesion among key factions so any future settlement is enforced/durable.

• Re-focus elites’ and armed groups’ attention on SSR, with some role for ANSAs, including Houthis and PCs, in local policing.

• Community-driven development to model good governance and get people minimally on board with relatively un-inclusive, elite-based outcome.


Political-Security: Cohesion & C2

• Large armed groups and coalitions like we see in Yemen have low level of cohesion and weak command and control (C2) which will make intentional or unintentional spoiler violence more likely.

• The UN and others must consider how they can help factions adhere to any political agreement and prevent reversion.


Security: Security sector reform

• Less focus on accountability and more emphasis on establishing a technically capable and committed security sector, particularly in cities and areas affected by AQAP violence.

• Yemen needs a strong core set of security services, backed up by quasi-official PCs in some areas, to make people feel safe and counter AQAP.


Security: Need to address ANSAs

• A phased (e.g., 3-5-year) approach may be useful, allowing local power-holders to maintain stability while creating a path (a difficult one) for training and integration in the security forces or an auxiliary or civil defence contingent.

• Hope of integration can be carrot to encourage good behaviour.


Security: De-politicisation

• Bring new individuals into the security services by applying new technical standards. But avoid sweeping, high-level changes too quickly (a la Hadi).

• Try (as feasible) to weaken links between fighters and factional leaders (e.g., troop and command rotation).

• Build cross-faction links among selected mid-to-upper-level commanders (e.g., elite SSR courses)


Socio-Political: Comm. Driven Dev’t

• Community-driven development based on CBOs is one of the most viable models for Yemen and has a record of success in various forms.

• Needs adequate and predictable funding.

• Potential for building community-based process into higher-order processes.


Socio-Political: Supporting Victims

• Avoid sense that aid community is ignoring the human consequences of conflict – particularly since pervasive degree of trauma generated by this crisis.

• Support a government-led, multi-stakeholder process of supporting the most vulnerable victims in all parts of the country, regardless of source of harm.

Zyck Yemen Building Blocks May2015

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