Zubair Faisal Abbasi

August 11, 2014

The 18th Amendment changed the Clause (2) of Article 156 as follows:

“The National Economic Council shall review the overall economic condition of the country and shall, for advising the Federal Government and the Provincial Governments, formulate plans in respect of financial, commercial, social and economic policies; and in formulating such plans it shall, amongst other factors, ensure balanced development and regional equity and shall also be guided by the Principles of Policy set out in Chapter 2 of Part-II.”

Quality of the report 1. Analytics: It is a standard government style

write up which lacks triangulated analytical analysis of any of the issues which might be raised.

2. Presentation: average quality printing and presentation of data in tables with text

3. Focus and clarity: the report of focused and it does not go into any other kind of detail than presentation of facts. No visible error of inclusion

4. Date and signatures: It has month of publication and foreword by the Secretary cabinet divisio

5. Executive Summary: is not given

6. Referencing: is not given and data is presented as if generated by the Cabinet Secretariat itself

7. Attribution and accuracy: without referencing and attribution, accuracy cannot be determined

In total there are nine chapters

Chapter 1: reproduces legal and constitutional provisions of NEC under constitution (4 pages)

Chapter 2: Composition of the Executive Committee of NEC (ECNEC) (3 pages)

Chapter 3: Performance of the NEC (2 pages)

Chapter 4: Review of previous plan and proposed annual plan (6 pages)

Chapter 5: Review of Federal Public Sector Development Programmes and Proposed PSDP 2012-13 with allocations and releases. Key decisions are also mentioned (4 pages) ◦ Allocations and real expenditure

◦ Decisions such as approval of PSDP; change in the powers of provincial governments; directions to present identified projects; directions to PC for implementation of projects/coordination

Chapter 6: Implementation Matrix of Framework of Economic Growth (3 pages) ◦ Narrative of the growth framework

Chapter 7: Performance of ECNEC and Central Development Working Party (CDWP) (3 pages) ◦ About financial approvals for different projects

Chapter 8: Functions of Executive Committees of ECNEC and DWP (2 and ½ pages)

Chapter 9: Sanctioning powers of approving bodies (2 pages) ◦ Schedule A: Principals of Policy (3 pages)

◦ Schedule B: Rules of Business NEC (4 pages)

◦ Schedule C: List of approved project

Presented in February 2013, the previous was presented April 2012. So some improvement

By performance the report means the number of meetings held, names of participants, and agenda items. It should meet twice a year but met once (May 14, 2012). Is it adequate reporting?

A meeting to make a performance review after June is needed?

Should the review not based on Principals of Policy (see page 35 of the report) ◦ Social justice, balanced development (Article 37-38)

The report stays at the input and output levels does not talk about the results related to financial allocations at the national and provincial levels. Should it not go beyond financial allocation analysis?

Why Planning Commission (and PIDE for research) should not be asked to help prepare the report?

Executive summary may be added Report should come right after the end of financial

year in June by end of September. A chapter on conclusions and recommendations may

be added. For example it may recommend, the Council should meet twice a year as desired by the Constitution.

The report may give better provincial breakup (Yard-stick competition) to reflect on questions balanced development and regional equity to identify development gaps and generate advice for governments

Some interesting slides

info@idi.org.pk @IDIPakistan

Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2013-14

Right to healthcare: Which way

now …. ? United Nations recommends at least 2 per cent of GDP to be allocated to healthcare of Pakistani citizens by 2018. Public sector expenditures on health dropped to 0.2% of GDP in 2010-11 and must pick up fast in near future.

Our Children, Our Future Let us make a promise to give them better chances of survival

Source: Pakistan Millennium Development Goals Report 2013, Planning Commission of Pakistan, p.57

MDG Targets and Achievements Under Five Mortality Rates

The gender and public policy dimension => According to the Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey 2012-13 p. xxiii, under five mortality is 98 for boys and 96 for girls. Pakistan is off track on this important MDG and needs to allocate more financial and administrative resources to bridge the gap. At the provincial levels, Balochistan is apparently the worst hit by under five mortality and provincial level data is really in short supply for any credible policy recommendation.

info@idi.org.pk @IDIPakistan

info@idi.org.pk @IDIPakistan

Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2013-14, p. 169 (This is federal and provincial allocation)

United Nations recommends at least 2 per cent of GDP to be allocated to healthcare of Pakistani citizens by 2018. Public sector expenditures on health dropped to 0.2% of GDP in 2010-11 and must pick up fast in near future to help achieve MDG 4.

Right to healthcare: Under-Five Mortality and Post-18th Amendment Scenario

Pakistan is off track on this Under-Five Mortality (MDG 4) and needs to allocate more financial and administrative resources to bridge the gap. Balochistan is apparently the worst hit whereas provincial level data is in short supply for any credible policy recommendation.

Source: Pakistan Millennium Development Goals Report 2013, Planning Commission of Pakistan, p.57.

Pakistan has enacted 18th Amendment in April 2010. This change ensures devolution of development portfolio to the provincial governments. Because the 7th National Finance Commission (NFC) Award announced in 2009, it is important that the next NFC award reconsiders the new responsibilities of provinces after 18th Amendment for health sector as well.

Source: Human Development in South Asia 2012, HDC, p. 79.

Women’s Economic Role: A Question of Inclusive Economic Growth and Sustainable Human

Development

info@idi.org.pk @IDIPakistan

Owing to low growth rates and multifarious social constraints, Pakistan is likely to miss the MDG target of 14% share of women in non-agriculture sector at the national level. At the provincial level, Punjab is the only province where the target is likely to be achieved. After 18th Amendment the provincial governments have the responsibility to create conducive environment for sustainable human development and ensure provision of ‘right to decent work’ for everyone.

Data source: Pakistan Millennium Development Goals Report 2013, Planning Commission of Pakistan, p. 51.

Inclusive Economic Growth within Pakistani Federation

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Table: Consumption-based Gini Coefficient

Source: Pakistan Millennium Development Goals Report 2013, Planning Commission, p.20.

Figure: Provincial GDP Growth Rates (% at 1999-2000 prices)

Source: Khalid Ikram (2013), “Provincial Economic Development: Performance, Challenges, and the Way Forward” in the Pakistan: Moving the Economy Forward, p 550.

• There are growth divergence and swings in provincial economic performance. For rapid and sustained growth, it is important to know the drivers of boom and bust at the provincial levels.

• After 18th Amendment provinces need to collect data on key economic variables such as investments, savings, imports, and exports like other federations.

• Apparently, Punjab is the most unequal and Balochistan is the most equal. But, for some analysts, this level of equality may be due to more poverty in Balochistan.

• Evidence suggests, however that real incomes increased between 2000-11 even for the poorest segments. But growth remained high for the rich segments of society. We need high quality inclusive growth!

Structural Transformation of Economy at the Provincial Level

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Source: Khalid Ikram (2013), “Provincial Economic Development: Performance, Challenges, and the Way Forward” in the Pakistan: Moving the Economy Forward, Lahore School of Economics, p 551.

Structural transformation of economy is a process of development in which share of industry and services increase in the economy relative to the agriculture sector. This shift releases labour from the farms to work in the modern sectors so changes/increase livelihood options. The above charts show Balochistan had the least structural transformation, remained vulnerable and experienced shocks of every kind. We need to design policies, actions plans, and act on them while being accountable to people!

info@idi.org.pk @IDIPakistan

Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan various issues

Nutritional Mix: What have we started producing more and

WHY?

Points to ponder: The question of food production, availability, and accessibility is important from a food security perspective but it is equally important to know what are we producing more and what can be the effects of such a mix of food (consumption) and who consumes what type of food. We also need to understand the health effects of producing certain types of food say sugar and meat. Do the food mix have some association with public health issues like life style diseases? We need to

know detailed answers on this. Don’t we? – IDI is working on it.

Table: Food Availability per Capita per Annum

Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan various issues. For food basket data from 2007-2011, see “Change in the Cost of Food Basket”, Annual Report of Planning and Development Division Planning Commission, July 2011.

Food Security: What is the question?

info@idi.org.pk @IDIPakistan

Point to ponder: While production and availability is not a serious issue, the accessibility of food and nutritious food can be a serious issue due to increase in prices and specially for those who are old and cannot increase their incomes rapidly.

Whose calories count and who suffers the most?

Poverty and the Need of Social Protection

info@idi.org.pk @IDIPakistan

Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2013-14 p. 231

A long queue of flood disaster affected persons to register for Watan Card emergency cash transfer in South Punjab.

Signs of poverty and resource scarcity in South Punjab.

Poverty is said to have been declining in Pakistan owing to various factors. One factor is many fold (7-8 times) increase in monetary allocations for social protection and new programmes such as BISP.

>> Pakistan needs to further strengthen its social protection programming. Make it better coordinated (under one umbrella), less fragmented, more targeted and conditional, more inclusionary (add informal sectors), and add rigorous monitoring and evaluation practices. AND why not a disaster risk mitigation fund to finance vulnerable segments and geographies.

Thanks for listening