Zocalo Developing Open Source Prediction Market Software Chris Hibbert CommerceNet Labs DIMACS...

ZocaloZocalo

Developing Open Source Prediction Market Software

Chris HibbertCommerceNet Labs

DIMACS Workshop on Markets as Predictive Devices4 February 2005

Developing Open Source Prediction Market Software

Chris HibbertCommerceNet Labs

DIMACS Workshop on Markets as Predictive Devices4 February 2005

22© 2005 Chris Hibbert© 2005 Chris Hibbert DIMACS, 4 February 2005DIMACS, 4 February 2005

Zocalo: ChallengesZocalo: Challenges

•My Objective:•Promote broader use of Prediction

Markets

•Our Opportunity:•CommerceNet is starting an e-

commerce lab.

•One Key Obstacle: •No common software platform for

prediction markets yet.

•My Objective:•Promote broader use of Prediction

Markets

•Our Opportunity:•CommerceNet is starting an e-

commerce lab.

•One Key Obstacle: •No common software platform for

prediction markets yet.


Zocalo: A ProposalZocalo: A Proposal

•Our Proposed Solution:•Catalyze development of an Open

Source toolkit for Experimental (& Real) markets.

•Call to Action:• Identify promising “wheels to stop re-

inventing.”

•Collaborate with us on your next experiment.

•Help us make the case to CommerceNet.

•Our Proposed Solution:•Catalyze development of an Open

Source toolkit for Experimental (& Real) markets.

•Call to Action:• Identify promising “wheels to stop re-

inventing.”

•Collaborate with us on your next experiment.

•Help us make the case to CommerceNet.


OutlineOutline

•My Background and Incentives•Why me?

•The Target Markets for Zocalo•Who should care?

•Why aren’t PM Toolkits Available Already?

•Benefits of Open Source•Design for Flexibility•Benefits of Working with CommerceNet

•My Background and Incentives•Why me?

•The Target Markets for Zocalo•Who should care?

•Why aren’t PM Toolkits Available Already?

•Benefits of Open Source•Design for Flexibility•Benefits of Working with CommerceNet


My BackgroundMy Background

• MIT, Xerox PARC• Managed S/W Development for 12 Years

• Teams of 3 to 15 people• E-Commerce projects at Agorics, Inc.• Project Manager, Architect for GuardPoste

Secure EMail Server, recently sold to Microsoft

• Extensive Experience with Electronic Commerce• Internal E-Commerce at Sun Labs.• Electronic Check (IBM, Sun, Top-10 banks)

• Strong background in Economics• Have deployed and written Idea Futures S/W

• MIT, Xerox PARC• Managed S/W Development for 12 Years

• Teams of 3 to 15 people• E-Commerce projects at Agorics, Inc.• Project Manager, Architect for GuardPoste

Secure EMail Server, recently sold to Microsoft

• Extensive Experience with Electronic Commerce• Internal E-Commerce at Sun Labs.• Electronic Check (IBM, Sun, Top-10 banks)

• Strong background in Economics• Have deployed and written Idea Futures S/W


Target AudiencesTarget Audiences

.eduEcon Departments

Show how markets work

.comBusiness

Planning, Trading

CommerceNet.org

SimonMarket.orgPolicy Discussion


Why Aren’t Prediction Market Toolkits

Available?

Why Aren’t Prediction Market Toolkits

Available?•Researchers focus on running experiments:•Little reward for publishing software.•Toolkits emerge once experiments are

systematized

•Corporate users develop proprietary solutions:•Consulting, not general-purpose

infrastructure.

•CommerceNet’s motivation is different:• Its research focus is software engineering.•Has track record of sharing software that

creates new markets for electronic commerce.

•Researchers focus on running experiments:•Little reward for publishing software.•Toolkits emerge once experiments are

systematized

•Corporate users develop proprietary solutions:•Consulting, not general-purpose

infrastructure.

•CommerceNet’s motivation is different:• Its research focus is software engineering.•Has track record of sharing software that

creates new markets for electronic commerce.


Benefits of Open SourceBenefits of Open Source

•Open Source Packages Best Practices and Makes it Accessible

•Later Users can Add Value to the Foundation

•Every Econ or Business Student Should Learn How to Put Together a Market

•Entrepreneurs Will Invent New Uses and Apply Markets in More Ways

•Some Will be Contributed Back to the OS project

•Open Source Packages Best Practices and Makes it Accessible

•Later Users can Add Value to the Foundation

•Every Econ or Business Student Should Learn How to Put Together a Market

•Entrepreneurs Will Invent New Uses and Apply Markets in More Ways

•Some Will be Contributed Back to the OS project


The Zocalo Toolkit Design

The Zocalo Toolkit Design

• Develop a Variety of Exchange Tools• Support CDA and Call Markets• Trade Predictions or Virtual Commodities• Handle Play Money or Valuable Goods

• Support for Experiments• Instrument all Activity• Export Data in Useful Formats for Analysis

• Apply Current S/W Development Approaches• Flexible Support for UIs• Scalability, Decentralization, Security

• Develop a Variety of Exchange Tools• Support CDA and Call Markets• Trade Predictions or Virtual Commodities• Handle Play Money or Valuable Goods

• Support for Experiments• Instrument all Activity• Export Data in Useful Formats for Analysis

• Apply Current S/W Development Approaches• Flexible Support for UIs• Scalability, Decentralization, Security


Who is CommerceNet?Who is CommerceNet?

• 10-Year Old Non-Profit with Money• Mission is Promoting New Forms of E-

Commerce• Neutral Party that Convenes Interest Groups

to Create Common Tools• e.g. E-Commerce, XML, Audience

Measurement

• Fosters Entrepreneurs• Creating a New Software Research Lab

• Focus on Decentralization and E-Commerce• zClassifieds, zMart, would use Zocalo

• 10-Year Old Non-Profit with Money• Mission is Promoting New Forms of E-

Commerce• Neutral Party that Convenes Interest Groups

to Create Common Tools• e.g. E-Commerce, XML, Audience

Measurement

• Fosters Entrepreneurs• Creating a New Software Research Lab

• Focus on Decentralization and E-Commerce• zClassifieds, zMart, would use Zocalo


Project PhasesProject Phases

• First Step:• Collect Requirements• Support Experiments; Work with Experimenters• Demonstrate Reuse

• Short Term:• Expand Variety of Market Institutions• Ensure Easy Configurability

• Medium Term:• Deploy Internal Pilots to Businesses• Develop support for Confederations of Markets

• Long Term:• Deploy Public Markets with Partners

• First Step:• Collect Requirements• Support Experiments; Work with Experimenters• Demonstrate Reuse

• Short Term:• Expand Variety of Market Institutions• Ensure Easy Configurability

• Medium Term:• Deploy Internal Pilots to Businesses• Develop support for Confederations of Markets

• Long Term:• Deploy Public Markets with Partners


Collaboration Possibilities

Collaboration Possibilities

• Collaboration is one of CommerceNet’s Strengths• We are Looking for Partners

• (S/W Developers, Experimenters, Entrepreneurs)

• Express Your Interest• Describe Your Needs• Tell us When You want to Deploy a Market

• White Paper available in [email protected]

• http://zLab.Commerce.Net• http://blog.Commerce.Net

• Collaboration is one of CommerceNet’s Strengths• We are Looking for Partners

• (S/W Developers, Experimenters, Entrepreneurs)

• Express Your Interest• Describe Your Needs• Tell us When You want to Deploy a Market

• White Paper available in [email protected]

• http://zLab.Commerce.Net• http://blog.Commerce.Net

Zocalo Developing Open Source Prediction Market Software Chris Hibbert CommerceNet Labs DIMACS...

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