Zions Bank Economic Overview€¦ · Mar. 2000 63.7 Apr. 1978 63.0%. Civilian Labor Force...
Transcript of Zions Bank Economic Overview€¦ · Mar. 2000 63.7 Apr. 1978 63.0%. Civilian Labor Force...
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ZionsBankEconomicOverview
VeteranOwnedBusinessConference
• May11,2018
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DowTops26,000– Up48%Since2016Election
Source:WallStreetJournal
Jan26,201826,616
Oct30,201617,888
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DowAroundCorrectionTerritoryDownMorethanTenPercent
Source:WallStreetJournal
Jan26,201826,616
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VolatilityReturnstotheStockMarket
19,00020,00021,00022,00023,00024,00025,00026,00027,000
Jan-2017
Feb-2017
Mar-2017
Apr-2
017
May-2017
Jun-2017
Jul-2017
Aug-2017
Sep-2017
Oct-2017
Nov-2017
Dec-2017
Jan-2018
Feb-2018
Mar-2018
Apr-2
018
May-2018
DowJonesIndustrialAverage
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Why?
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BusinessOptimismBooming
Source:TradingEconomics,NFIBSmallBusinessOptimismIndex
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ConsumerConfidenceRemainsHigh
5060708090100110120130140
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-1
3 Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-1
4 Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-1
5 Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-1
6 Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-1
7 Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-1
8
Above110indicateseconomicprosperity
Source:TheConferenceBoard
April2018128.7
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OptimismBooming
Source:TradingEconomics,NFIBSmallBusinessOptimismIndex
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Trumponomics•RepealandreplacetheAffordableCareAct• TaxReform• Increasespendingoninfrastructureandmilitary•Reducegovernmentregulations•Renegotiatetradedeals
•Butcantheygetitdone…?
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USTaxReformOverview• Individual(Sunsetin2025)
• Smallchangestotaxrates• Increasestandarddeduction• Eliminatepersonalexemption• Doublechildtaxcredit• Lowermortgageinterestdeductionfrom$1mto$750k
• Capdeductionsforstateandlocaltaxesat$10,000
• Eliminatevariousitemizeddeductions• Removethehealthinsurancemandate(permanent)
• Corporate(Permanent)• Reducecorporatetaxratefrom35%to21%
• Pass-throughincomedeductionof20%• Repatriationofforeignincomeat15.5%(territorialtaxsystem)
• EconomicImpact• Scoreofaround$1.5trillion• ManyUScompaniesalreadyincreasingwagesandbonuses
• IncreaseGDPbyupto0.5%• Fedreaction?
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EconomicGrowthSlowedattheStartof2018butRemainsStrong
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
2012
2012
2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
2013
2014
2014
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
2015
2016
2016
2016
2016
2017
2017
2017
2017
PersonalConsumption FixedInvestment NetExports
Inventories Government RealGDPGrowth
Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis
Q120182.3%
2018
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AprilJobIndicators
Indicator Expectation ActualTotalNonfarmPayrolls 191,000 164,000UnemploymentRate 4.0% 3.9%PrivatePayrolls 190,000 168,000MonthlyAverageHourlyWageGrowth 0.2% 0.1%
YearlyAverageHourlyWageGrowth 2.7% 2.6%
LaborForceParticipation 62.9% 62.8%
Sources:WallstreetJournalandBureauofLaborStatistics
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AprilMarks91StraightMonthsofJobGrowth
-900
-700
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
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ButEmploymentGrowthRatesTrendingDown
Source:WallStreetJournal
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NationalEmploymentChangePercentChangeinNationalEmploymentbyIndustry:April2017toApril2018
0.0% 1.7% 1.7% 1.9%
2.5% 1.5%
-0.9% 1.1%
2.0% 3.7%
8.8%
-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
GovernmentOtherServices
Leisure&HospitalityEd.&HealthServ.Prof.&Bus.Serv.FinancialActivity
InformationTrade,Trans.,Utilities
ManufacturingConstruction
Ntl.Res.&Mining
Total:1.6%
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
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NationalEmploymentChangeTotalChangeinNumberofJobsbyIndustryinThousands:April2017toApril2018
399
279
431518
126-26
289245257
59
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
GovernmentOtherServices
Leisure&HospitalityEd.&HealthServ.Prof.&Bus.Serv.FinancialActivity
InformationTrade,Trans.,Utilities
ManufacturingConstruction
Ntl.Res.&Mining
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
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UnemploymentRateatLowest-LevelSinceDecember2000
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0% 1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
5.0%=FullEmployment
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
April20183.9%
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62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
LaborForceParticipationFellSlightlyinApril
April201862.8%
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
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56%
58%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
LaborForceParticipationAmongLowestLevelinAlmost40Years
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
April.201862.8
Mar.200063.7
Apr.197863.0%
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CivilianLaborForceParticipationRate
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
Men Women
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
MenApril.201869.2%
WomenApril.201856.7%
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BabyBoomersHeadforRetirement
20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% 38%
60% 61% 62% 63% 64% 65% 66% 67% 68%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
U.S.ParticipationRate Age55+ShareofWorkingAgePop
U.S.ParticipationRate
Shareof55+
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
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Long-TermDeclineoftheTeenageWorkforce
30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70%
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
U.S.LaborForceParticipationRate ParticipationRateAges16-19
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
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StandardofLivingBestEver
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OneUnemployedWorkerPerJobOpening
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Unemployed/Openings
March20181.0
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
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AnnualWageGrowthDeclinedinApril
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2007– 2017Average2.4%
April20182.6%
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
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WageGrowthLaggingJobGrowth
Source:WallStreetJournal
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ProducerPriceIndex
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Year-to-YearChange
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
Mar.20183.0%
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InflationisStartingtoConvergeontheFed’s2%Goal
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017PCE Core PCE (Excludes Food and Energy)
Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis
Mar.2018PCE2.0%
Mar.2018CorePCE1.8%
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0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source:U.S.FederalReserve
FederalFundsTargetRateSees6thIncreaseinOveraDecade
FederalFundsTargetRate=1.50-1.75%
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March2018FedRateIncreaseProjections
Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserve
2.1%
2.7% 3.1%
2.8%
2.1%
2.9% 3.4%
2.9%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2018 2019 2020 LongerRun
Dec-17 Mar-18
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FedRateIncreaseProjections
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IsaRecessionontheWay?
Source:WallStreetJournal
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OilPricesRising
Source:WallStreetJournal
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… WhichisCausingGasPricestoRise
Source:WallStreetJournal
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Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis
EconomicProtectionismIncreasesCosts
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Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis
EconomicImpactofTradeWars- Cattle
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Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis
EconomicImpactofTradeWars- Hogs
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Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis
EconomicImpactofTradeWars- Cars
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Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis
TradeWarsHurtGrowth
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UtahEconomic Conditions
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PercentChange:2016to2017U.S.Rate=0.7%
Loss
0.2%to0.6%
1.5%+
0.0%to0.1%
NM0.1%
UT1.9%
AZ1.6%
CA0.6%
NV2.0%
OR1.4%
TX1.4%
OK0.2%
CO1.4%
WA1.7%
ID2.2%
MT1.1%
WY-1.0%
ND0.0%
SD0.9%
MN0.9%
NE0.7%
KS0.3%
IA0.5%
MO0.4%
AR0.5%
LA0.0%
WI0.4%
IL-0.3%
IN0.5%
OH0.3%
FL1.6%
TN1.0%
KY0.4%
MS0.0%
AL0.3%
GA1.1%
SC1.3%
NC1.1%
VA0.7%
WV-0.7%
PA0.1%
NY0.1%
ME0.4%
AK-0.2%
HI-0.1%
MA0.5%
VT0.0%
NH0.6%
RI0.2%
CT0.0%
NJ0.4%
DE1.0%
MD0.5%
MI0.3%
DC1.4%
KS0.2%
UtahPopulation3rd Fastest GrowinginU.S.
Source:U.S.CensusBureau
0.7%to1.4%
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PercentChange:2016to2017U.S.Rate=0.7%
Loss
0.2%to0.6%
1.5%+
0.0%to0.1%
UtahCounties’GrowthOutpacingNation
Source:U.S.CensusBureau
0.7%to1.4%
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-20,000-10,000010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000
0300,000600,000900,000
1,200,0001,500,0001,800,0002,100,0002,400,0002,700,0003,000,0003,300,0003,600,000
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
NetMigration NaturalIncrease TotalPopulation
34,886
3,101,833
22,587
2017
Sources:U.S.CensusBureau
TotalPop
ulation
ComponentsofPopulationChange
e=estimate,f=forecast
UtahPopulationandComponentsofChange
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UtahPopulationGrowthRatesByCounty
2016to2017StateAverage=1.9%
Source:U.S.CensusBureau
1.0%to1.7%
0.0%to0.9%
1.8%to2.9%
Loss
3.0%+
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PercentChangeinEmploymentforStates:Mar.2017toMar.2018U.S.Rate=1.5%UTRate=3.3%
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
1.0%to1.5%
0.0%to0.9%
Loss
1.6%to1.9%
2.0%+
UtahisTiedfortheFastestEmploymentGrowth
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800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,5001996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Thou
sand
sofEmployees
TotalNonfarmEmploymentSource:U.S.BureauofLaborStatisticsNote:Numbersroundedtonearestthousand
UtahTotalEmploymentatNewHighsGainof333,100jobsfromlowin
2010
Lossof92,000jobsfrom2007-2010
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1.6% -0.5%
5.0% 3.5% 3.5%
2.5% 2.6%
4.2% 3.2%
5.0% -1.2%
-13% -8% -3% 2% 7%
GovernmentOtherServices
Leisure&HospitalityEd.&HealthServ.Prof.&Bus.Serv.FinancialActivity
InformationTrade,Trans.,Utilities
ManufacturingConstruction
Ntl.Res.&Mining
PercentChangeinUtahEmploymentbyIndustry:March2017toMarch2018
Total:3.3%
UtahIndustriesSeeingGrowth
Source:UtahDepartmentofWorkforceServices
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3,900
-200 7,2007,0007,000
2,1001,000
11,4004,1004,600
-100
-3,000 -1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 13,000
GovernmentOtherServices
Leisure&HospitalityEd.&HealthServ.Prof.&Bus.Serv.FinancialActivity
InformationTrade,Trans.,Utilities
ManufacturingConstruction
Ntl.Res.&Mining
Total:48,000
UtahIndustriesSeeingGrowthTotalChangeinUtahEmploymentbyIndustry:March2017toMarch2018
Source:UtahDepartmentofWorkforceServices
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UtahEmploymentChangeRatesByCounty
March2017toMarch2018StateRate=3.3%
1.0%to3.2%
0.0%to0.9%
5.0%+
3.3%to4.9%
Loss
Source:UtahDepartmentofWorkforceServices
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VT3.4%
NH4.4%
MA3.8%
RI3.5%CT
3.9%NJ2.7%
MD2.6%
DC5.7%
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
UtahHasthe11th LowestUnemploymentRateMarch2018U.S.Rate=4.1%;UT=3.1%
6.0%+
5.5%to5.9%
4.8%to5.4%
4.0%to4.7%
3.9%orless
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UtahUnemployment
RatesByCountyFebruary2018
StateRate=3.1%
Source:UtahDepartmentofWorkforceServices
4.0%to5.9%
6.0%to6.9%
3.1%orlower
3.2%to3.9%
7.0%+
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DE2.5%
VT3.4%
NH4.4%
MA3.8%
RI3.5%CT
3.9%NJ2.7%
MD2.6%
DC5.7%
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
UtahPersonalIncomeGrowth3rd HighestintheNationPercentChangeinPersonalIncome:2016- 2017
U.S.=3.1%,UT=4.4%ID= 4.7%
3.6%to3.9%2.0%to3.5%
4.0%ormore
0.0%to1.9%Decrease
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2016U.S.Rate=14.0%,UtahRate=10.1%
Source:U.S.CensusBureau,AnnualCommunitySurvey1-yearestimate
NM19.8%
UT10.1%
AZ16.3%
CA14.3%
NV13.8%
OR13.3%
TX15.6%
OK16.3%
CO11.0%
WA11.3%
ID14.4%
MT13.3%
WY11.3%
ND10.6%
SD13.3%
MN9.9%
NE11.4%
KS12.1%
IA11.8%
MO14.0%
AR17.1%
LA20.1%
WI11.8%
IL13.0%
IN14.1%
OH14.6%
FL14.6%
TN 15.8%
KY18.5%
MS20.8%
AL17.1%
GA16.0%
SC15.3%
NC 15.4%
VA11.0%
WV17.8%
PA12.9%
NY14.6%
ME12.5%
AK9.9%
HI9.3%
MA10.4%
VT11.9%
NH7.2%
RI12.8%
CT9.8%
NJ10.4%
DE11.6%
MD9.6%
MI15.0%
DC18.6%
15.1% to 18.0%12.1% to 15.0%
10.0% or less
10.1% to 12.0%
18.1% +
UtahPovertyRate7th LowestintheNation
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UtahConsumerConfidenceHitsNewHigh
5060708090100110120130140
Jul-12
Nov-12
Mar-13
Jul-13
Nov-13
Mar-14
Jul-14
Nov-14
Mar-15
Jul-15
Nov-15
Mar-16
Jul-16
Nov-16
Mar-17
Jul-17
Nov-17
Mar-18
U.S.ConsumerConfidenceIndex:127.7
ZionsBankUtahConsumerAttitudeIndex:129.5
Above110indicateseconomicprosperity
Sources:ConferenceBoardandCiceroGroup
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UtahInflationHigherThanUS
-1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%
Sep-2011
Dec-2011
Mar-2012
Jun-2012
Sep-2012
Dec-2012
Mar-2013
Jun-2013
Sep-2013
Dec-2013
Mar-2014
Jun-2014
Sep-2014
De
c-2014
Mar-2015
Jun-2015
Sep-2015
De
c-2015
Mar-2016
Jun-2016
Sep-2016
De
c-2016
Mar-2017
Jun-2017
Sep-2017
De
c-2017
Mar-2018
UnitedStatesCPI:+2.4% ZionsBankWasatchFrontCPI:+2.6%
Source:U.S.CPIfromNationalBureauofLaborStatisticsandWasatchFrontCPIfromCiceroGroup
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Utahhomevaluescontinuetorise
$95,000$115,000$135,000$155,000$175,000$195,000$215,000$235,000$255,000$275,000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
UnitedStates Utah
UtahDec.2017$262,200
U.S.Dec.2017$206,300
Source:ZillowResearch
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UtahResidentialConstructionActivityContinuestoRise
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Single-FamilyUnits Multifamily Total
Forecast
Source:Ivory-BoyerConstructionDatabase,Kem C.GardnerPolicyInstitute
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HouseholdCreationSurpassesHousingUnits
Source:Kem C.GardnerPolicyInstitutePopulationProjectionsandIvoryBoyerConstructionDatabase
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UtahValueofNewResidentialConstructionIncreasing
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Residential Nonresidential Renovations Total
Forecast
MillionsofD
ollars
Source:Ivory-BoyerConstructionDatabase,Kem C.GardnerPolicyInstitute
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Sources:StateofUtahRevenueAssumptionsWorkingGroup,Moody’sEconomy.com,IHSGlobalInsights e=estimatef=forecast
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
RetailSales
HomePrices
PersonalIncome
UnemploymentRate
NonfarmEmployment
Population
2016 2017e 2018f 2019f
UtahEconomicIndicators2016-2019f
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RobertSpendloveEconomicandPublicPolicyOfficer
Email:[email protected]:801-560-5394
ZionsBank,ADivisionofZB,N.A.MemberFDIC.
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