Z E R O H U N G E R Z E R O E M I S S I O N S

P R O J E C T M A L I H A M U Z A M M I L ,

E N V I R O N M E N T A L C H A N G E I N S T I T U T E ,

U N I V E R S I T Y O F O X F O R D

A VISION FOR THE FUTURE OF THE PLANET

FOOD SYSTEMS A KEY AREA WHERE MULTIPLE SDGS INTERACT

….BUT

……As with any vision, there are multiple pathways of getting there, each of which creates different winners and losers along the way

So far we don’t know how, as a society, to make informed choices about trade-offs.

SO FOR BANGLADESH…

If the current food system continues with business as usual, can it maintain high food security levels for Bangladesh? What will be the major challenges for the Bangladeshi food system in 30 to 50 years from now? We already know…. ….that climate change and other environmental changes, population increase, urbanization, etc. will be mean something else than business as usual. So what are the pathways for Bangladesh?

AGRICULTURE RELATED EMISSIONS IN BANGLADESH

- Agriculture is one of the largest contributing sectors to BGD’s carbon emissions

- As the economy expands more mechanisation is expected

- The unconditional Nationally Determined Contributions for BGD considers reducing emissions from the agriculture sector

PROJECT OBJECTIVES

1. To identify possible pathways for Bangladesh that consider the zero hunger goal and low carbon growth futures.

2. To guide an inclusive process that brings together different voices (policy, industry, civil society) to discuss implications of these different futures, particularly for those living in poverty.

Methodology Policy analysis Prior experience in Bangladesh

Policy landscape Strong national network Access to national media Access to university students

Policy analysis Journalism/facilitation expertise Access to people’s experiences of food/climate Long term work with youth

Advance policy debate

Bring more voices in

THE SCENARIOS APPROACH FOR LOOKING INTO THE FUTURE

Plausible descriptions of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key relationships and driving forces (Nakicenovic 2000).

exploring the future in order to make wiser choices today

STAGES OF DEVELOPING SCENARIOS • Stage 1. Identify key challenge.

• Stage 2. Identify building blocks of the scenarios

• Stage 3. Develop more detailed versions of the four scenarios

Workshop 1 Workshop 2 • Stage 4. Analyse implications of scenarios for decisions today

Participation of the food & Ag community as well of the climate and energy community Representatives of government, private sector, NGOs/CSOs, academia BUT is a small scale, pilot initiative.

THE GREEN ROAD .

• Bangladesh uses the Sustainable Development Goals to the key policy goal.

• It places high priority on

– good governance,

– a more inclusive society -> Leave no one behind

– a healthy environment with active environmental management.

• Emphasis on reduction of methane emissions

• Emphasis of more nutritious diets for everyone but challenges in providing it.

• But there is a strong legacy of environmental degradation to deal with and there are high demands for food and land.

• Inclusive governance is a slow and complex process.

THE MIDDLE ROAD

• Historical trends continue; there are few radical departures from current policies and practices.

• Despite political commitments to SDGs, economic growth takes priority, environment protection less so.

• Governance, inclusivity and environmental focus and management are patchy.

• Despite good policies, practice and implementation are often poor.

• GHG emissions on the rise, similar to current trends.

• Food system provides better food for many, but Bangladesh does not have food security in all its senses (nutritious, safe, healthy food)

THE DIVIDED ROAD • Bangladesh moves towards a digitally controlled authoritarian state.

• Greater inequality is accepted.

• The government is more effective in some ways and creates a better economy and

environment for some, but worse for many more.

• Large agri-business thrives with a focus on export. Both under nutrition AND obesity increase.

• Rich poor divide is seen especially among women.

• Large increase in GHG emissions from power sector.

ROCKY ROAD

• Governance is weak, arbitrary and erratic.

• Parts of the country run their own affairs and much of the economy is criminalised. Yet some parts of the system function efficiently

• Women are most at risk of suffering a strong decline in their status

• Migration to cities and abroad accelerates

• Food security is very patchy and depends upon your connections to powerful groups.

• GHG emissions trends are uncertain but pollution is a increasing problem.

DEVELOP AND DEBATE SCENARIOS Is a zero hunger, low carbon future possible for Bangladesh? Most critical and uncertain drivers shaped four possible futures Analyse implications of scenarios for decisions today Interviews and FGDs before during/after to frame, validate, engage, ground the work

https://www.dhakatribune.com/articles/tribune-supplements/tribune-climate

CONSULTATIONS WITH RURAL COMMUNITIES ON THE SCENARIOS

Attended by persons from communities representing a wide selection of social groups, an acceptable balance in gender and age was ensured.

North (drought prone)

South (cyclones, salinity)

Kawnia, Rangpur Shyamnagar, Satkhira

Farmer Fisher Day Labourer

Farmer Fisher Day Labourer

Ricksaw/van Puller

Carpenter Blacksmith

Cobler Businessperson Housewife

Student Teacher Unemployed youth

Social worker Physically vulnerable

CONSULTATIONS WITH RURAL COMMUNITIES ON THE SCENARIOS • An overall sense of change

• Education and innovation in the rural context is seen as key

• Technical change as short term gain (new options for adaptation e.g. shrimp farming) and long term consequences (to manual labourers) and opportunity

• Participation in local government for women has and might be increasing

STUDENT WORKSHOP 600 students across the countries applied!! We selected 25 from 12 Universities Engaging university students across Bangladesh about key

issues related to food security and emission reduction in the country’s long term future

Thinking through a scenario building exercise Receive feedback on Zero Hunger, Zero Emissions

scenarios

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KEY MESSAGES FROM THE STUDENT WORKSHOP

The Key Drivers according to the Students include: Governance, Education and Technology

Education and Technology were important because they shape cultural behavior regarding how people consume energy and food

The Green Road scenario was a “fantasy” and the most unrealistic.

Most felt that the Rocky Road scenario was very real.

The students more critical about the future when compared to rural communities.

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Prices

- A COMPLETE ECONOMIC MODEL OF NATIONS IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY QUANTIF YING THE ZHZE-SCENARIOS

EX AMPLE OF POSSIBLE RESULTS OF QUANTIFICATION CLIMATE & FOOD NEXUS

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Climate & food security for agri-food sectors in Bangladesh under business-as-usual in Bangladesh Preliminary results Bangladesh baseline calibration - MAGNET

IMPACT Reframing of debate Appreciation of people’s voices Collaborations: • Research (ICCCAD) & Government (Planning

Commission) • Research (ICCCAD) & Practice (Oxfam

BGD) Practice. ICCCAD & Oxfam BGD more scenario/ future trends work with CCAFS modelling of scenarios Policy compatibility analysis