ZAMBIA ROADSHOW - Grit Real Estate Income...
Transcript of ZAMBIA ROADSHOW - Grit Real Estate Income...
ZAMBIA ROADSHOWOCTOBER 2016
CURRENT ASSET UNDER TRANSFER
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Location: Lusaka, Zambia
Anchor tenant(s): Shoprite, Game
Sector: Retail
Land title: Leasehold
GLA: 25 900m2
Parking bays: 1 300
Anchor lease term: 10 years
Anchor tenant lease expiry: 2026
Average escalation: US CPI
Vacancies: 0%
Valuation (100%): US$ 74.2 million
Acquisition yield: 7.80% (9.84% in Mauritius)
Cosmopolitan Mall (50% ownership)
EXISTING PORTFOLIO ASSETS
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Location: Kitwe, Zambia
Anchor tenant(s): Shoprite, Game, Pick ‘n Pay
Sector: Retail
Land title: Freehold
GLA: 28 229m2
Parking bays: 670
Anchor lease term: 10 years
Anchor tenant lease expiry: 2025
Average escalation: US CPI
Vacancies: 0%
Valuation (100%): US$ 63.0 million
Mukuba Mall (50% ownership)
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Location: Ndola, Zambia
Anchor tenant: Shoprite
Sector: Retail
Land title: Leasehold
GLA: 12 141m2
Parking bays: 180
Anchor lease term: 10 years
Anchor tenant lease expiry: 2024
Average escalation: US CPI
Vacancies: 0%
Valuation (100%): US$ 17.5 million
Kafubu Mall (50% ownership)
KEY PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE METRICS
Key Portfolio Performance Metrics
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VACANCY AND LEASE EXPIRY Mukuba Mall Kafubu Mall Cosmo Mall
No. of tenants 69 42 66
Vacancy (m2) 58 0 0
Vacancy (%) 0.21% 0.00% 0.00%
% m2 expiring in the next 12 months 0% 0% 0%
% m2 expiring in the next 24 months 1% 0% 0%
TENANT COMPOSITION Mukuba Mall Kafubu Mall Cosmo Mall
% National Tenants (by GLA) 83% 86% 78%
% Local Tenants (by GLA) 17% 14% 22%
% USD Leases (by Rent Income) 71% 38% 80%
% ZMW Leases (by Rent Income) 29% 62% 20%
Note: Information sourced from most recently finalised Property Management Packs
Key Portfolio Performance Metrics
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TURNOVER AND TRADING DENSITY Mukuba Mall Kafubu Mall Cosmo Mall
Total Centre Average Monthly Turnover (US$) 2 941 397 1 982 236 N/A*
Average Centre Trading Densities YTD (US$)(Jan - Aug 2016)
104.20 163.27 N/A*
Turnover Growth % YOY (2015-2016) 20% 8% N/A*
RENTAL, OPERATING EXPENSES AND ARREARS Mukuba Mall Kafubu Mall Cosmo Mall
Total Centre Average Rental per m2 (US$) 17.43 16.60 24.99
Cost to Income Ratio (%) 15% 21% 14%
Total Arrears (% of Total Monthly Billings) 11% 7%Final figure unavailable
due to trading and rental liability recons in progress
* Turnover figures are currently unavailable for Cosmopolitan Mall as the centre only started operating this year
Note: Information sourced from most recently finalised Property Management Packs
Key Portfolio Performance Metrics
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GROCERY ANCHOR PERFORMANCE (SHOPRITE) Mukuba Mall Kafubu Mall Cosmo Mall
Grocery Anchor GLA (m2) 4262 4144 3422
Grocery Anchor Rent per m2 (US$) 9.61 15.03 16.69
Grocery Anchor Total Average Turnover per month (US$)
1 347 835 1 021 386 1 094 269
6 month Average Trading Density per m2 of Grocery Anchor (US$)
316.24 246.47 319.77
Kafubu Mall (US$)
1. DSTV 917.73
2. Hungry Lion 525.71
3. American Swiss 358.34
4. Shoprite 195.07
5. E Plus 181.01
Mukuba Mall (US$)
1. Mobile City 898.01
2. Hungry Lion 692.44
3. MTN 555.61
4. Gigibonta Zambia 532.74
5. Vodafone 492.55
Cosmo Mall (US$)
1. Hungry Lion 631.90
2. Umoyo 555.30
3. American Swiss 496.54
4. Mobile City 364.22
5. The Cake Bar 316.05
Note: Information sourced from most recently finalised Property Management Packs
TOP 5 TRADING DENSITIES FOR LATEST REPORTING MONTH
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE(SHARE OF PROFITS)
Financial Performance (Share of Profits)
12Note: Cosmopolitan Mall is still under transfer
COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS
Gross Domestic Product Ave Medium Term Forecast Growth
per annum
Nominal Per Capita
Urbanization Rate
Resource Dependency
Urbanized Population
4%
$2,404
4.3%
41%
78%
2013
Top 3 Exports as % of the Total Exports (2012)
Ave Medium Term Forecast
PPP in USD
2013
Credit RatingCredit Rating Outlook
Fitch B Negative
Moody’s B3 Negative
S&P B Negative
IHS Connect B- Negative
21.4 mill
16.2 mill
20152025
16.1 People per km2
2005 2013
21.8 People per km2
Source: World Bank, IHS Connect, BBC, Mara Delta (2016)
Capital Lusaka
Population
Population Density
Key Facts
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Source: Data from IHS Connect and IMF (2016)
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Gross Domestic Product International Reserves Key Points
1. After consecutive years of strong GDP growththat made Zambia one of the best-performingeconomies in southern Africa, the countryreached low-middle-income status in 2010.
2. Zambia’s GDP growth expectations marginallymore positive than expected after recentslump.•Zambia's economy has been affected by lowcommodity prices . The country is one of theworld's largest exporters of copper (75% oftotal exports) and the lackluster commodityprice environment will continue to exertpressure on Zambia’s mining sector, which isunlikely to significantly recover until 2018.•The drought at the end of 2015 has severelyimpacted the agriculture production and hydropower supply, slowing economic growth .•Nevertheless, Zambia’s GDP growthexpectations have marginally increased for2016/17, following expectations of a morefavorable agricultural outcome for the farmingseason and copper production increased by9.6% year on year.•The economy will remain vulnerable to externalshocks such as the weather and developmentsin international commodity prices.
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Domestic Credit - LCUGrowth Rate: Domestic Credit in LCU
Economic Outlook
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Source: Data from IHS Connect and IMF (2016)
Exchange Rate Policy Interest Rate
Key Points
1. Zambia continues to be one of the most politically stable countries in the sub-Saharan region.2. The governing Patriotic Front's (PF's) Edgar Lungu, who served the remainder of former president Michael Sata's term from January 2015, won his
first full term in office at the August 2016 presidential election.3. The PF adheres to investor and business-friendly policies which attracted significant private investment into the country’s mining and agricultural
sectors. Attracting more than USD8.5 billion in foreign direct investment inflows during 2010–14, driving growth’4. Zambia’s headline inflation rate reached a peak of 22.9% year on year in February 2016 and has since been trending down slowly. A steep drop in
headline inflation from the fourth-quarter 2016 onward is expected.5. Further monetary responses are expected if pressure on the Zambian kwacha re-emerges. The Bank of Zambia has shown its commitment to
shield the kwacha exchange rate from further depreciation following the 800-basis-point rise in the bank’s overnight lending facility rate inNovember 2015. Scope to lower the Bank of Zambia's policy rate from 2017 onward is considered highly likely.
6. The fiscus has shown a deterioration in the wake of large spending commitments and slowing government revenue flows.7. Nevertheless, Zambia has made significant progress and reached broad consensus with the International Monetary Fund on a planned support
package. The government hopes to secure a bailout that could exceed USD1.2 billion to support the nation’s budget and top-up foreign reserves.
Inflation
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Political & Governance Overview
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Source: IMF (2016)
KEY STRENGTHS KEY RISKS
Strong economic growth prospects. High urbanization rate.
PF-led government maintains an anti-corruption stance. Proceeds from Eurobond issuance are to be channelled into
infrastructural development. Zambia enjoys a relatively secure environment. Business friendly policy. IMF support package planned to support foreign reserves.
Uncertainty caused by policy reviews. Operational challenges including power-rationing. Near-term growth prospects of the Zambian economy remain
precarious due to slow copper prices recovery and weather related risk.
Gradually subsidies cuts expected.
1. Mara Delta’s management has maintained close and robust ties with its local in-country partners in order to comprehensively monitor economic
and political stability.
2. Mara Delta continues to maintain a policy limiting any local currency exposure, utilising natural hedging of currency risk by matching the
currency of expenditure to the currency of income.
3. Mara Delta has a robust ability to manage flow of funds through the Group liquidity facilities in Mauritius, careful manages cashflows
surrounding investments and the strength of the counter parties (tenants).
4. All Mara Delta assets in country are equipped with power generators when and if power supply issues occur.
Mitigation measures in place
Key Strengths & Weaknesses
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EXECUTIVE & MANAGEMENT TEAM
Bronwyn Anne CorbettChief Executive Officer
BCom (Acc) (Univ. of Natal, PMB), CA(SA)
Bronwyn is the Chief Executive Officer of Mara Delta Property Holdings, the largest pan African focused real estate fund listed onthe Johannesburg Stock Exchange and in Mauritius. Corbett has significant corporate finance and deal making experience. Sheplayed an instrumental role in the JSE listing of Delta Property Fund Limited in 2012 where she held the positions of Chief FinancialOfficer and Chief Operating Officer prior to taking up the leadership role at Mara Delta. During her tenure at Delta Property FundLimited, Corbett spearheaded the diversification of the REIT’s funding sources into the debt capital markets, leading to theestablishment of a ZAR2 billion Domestic Medium Term Note Programme (DMTN programme). She led the team responsible forobtaining a national scale issuer rating from Global Credit Ratings as part of the DMTN programme. In addition, Bronwyn co-headedthe team responsible for growing assets under management from ZAR 2.2 billion at listing to ZAR 11.8 billion in May 2016. Bronwynis a founder member and served as non-executive director on the board of Delta International Property Fund Limited (nowMara Delta Property Holdings) where she played a significant role in the listing and conversion of the fund to its current pan-Africanfocus, underpinned by dollar based leases. She assumed the role of Chief Executive Officer in the lead-up to the fund’s merger withPivotal/Mara to form Mara Delta. She has grown the fund from $220 million to approximately $450 million in under 2 years.
Leon van de MoorteleChief Finance Officer
Bcompt (Hons), CA(SA)
After completing articles with PwC, Leon moved to the Global Risk Management Services within PwC, where he become the SeniorManager in charge of Data Management. In 2004, he moved to Solenta Aviation where he became Group Finance Director within18 months. During his tenure as Group Finance Director, the group expanded from 12 aircraft to 48 aircraft, operating in 8 Africancountries (including South Africa, Mozambique, Algeria, Ghana, Gabon, Kenya, Tanzania and Cote d’Ivoire). He joined Mara Delta inApril 2015, as CFO, where he has continued to utilise his tax structuring knowledge and experience in operating in Africa to expandthe asset base of the group.
Greg PearsonHead of Developments and New Business
MCMI, Elec Eng
A graduate of Kingston University, London, Greg studied Business Management and Project Management and is registered with theChartered Management Institute. Greg was formerly an executive with AECOM, a global provider of Design, Development,Engineering and construction services having had the responsibility of expanding the footprint for the ‘Rest of Africa’ business from2006 (outside of South Africa). He gained his basic training and experience in London working mostly on commercial, retail andresidential mixed use projects. Greg’s expertise includes development management, cost planning, procurement, timemanagement and traditional project management of major engineering and building projects. His market sector knowledgeincludes: office, retail, Leisure, education and healthcare schemes and he has experience in over 40 African countries.
Heidi RixChief Operational Officer
Bcom LLB
Heidi Rix joined Mara Delta as Chief Operating Officer on 1 May 2016. Heidi brings 18 years of commercial and real estateexperience and holds BComm LLB degrees with further studies in the real estate industry including an Advanced Diploma inProperty Practice (cum laude). Heidi joins Mara Delta from the Broll Property Group where she was a Director of the Group andheld the position of Managing Director Investor Services with overall responsibility and accountability for the Asset Management,Property Management and Retail Leasing businesses. Prior positions held by Heidi include Director of Atterbury Asset Managers(Pty) Ltd and General Manager Rand Merchant Bank Properties (Pty) Ltd.
Moira van der WesthuizenChief Integration Officer
Bcom (Hons), CA(SA)
Moira joined MaraDelta in May 2016 as the Chief Integration Officer. She holds a B Com (Honours) degree from the University ofSouth Africa and is a qualified Chartered Accountant.
She has over 20 years of experience in finance, business and auditing, which included running her own business and then in 2005going into partnership as the Audit Partner in an Audit and Accounting practice. In 2008 she moved to Mauritius and worked forInvestec Bank and later the CCI Group as the Group Financial Controller. 19
Executive Team
Trevor MatthewsSenior Operations Asset Manager
Trevor has over 30 years industry experience beginning his career in 1979 as a property assistant, a position he held for six years, in which he established the building blocks to a long and successful career in the sector. By 1985, he joined BanKorp Properties as a manager of collections. Following this, Trevor joined Liberty Group Properties as the Leasing Manager. In 2001, he managed a R1.5 billion portfolio for Allan Gray Shopping centres, thereafter progressing to Canal Walk Management as the Leasing Manager. Hewas the Retail Asset Manager of the Fountainhead Property Trust where he was responsible for the full asset management of a retail portfolio of 10 shopping centres.
Mike SewellHead of Acquisitions
Mike is a charted management accountant with over eight years’ international experience in real estate, having worked on a crosssection of deal structures, asset sectors and jurisdictions. His previous position as Fund Finance Manager at Axa Real EstateInvestment Managers (London) centred on deals, managing fund finances, fund maintenance and tax structuring and investmentmanagement strategies.
Chanel van Zyl-SwartCountry Risk Analyst
Chanel joined MaraDelta in 2016 as a Country Risk Analyst.
She holds a BComm with Law, as well as a BComm Honours Degree in Economics, both from the University of Stellenbosch. Aftergraduating, she joined the Department of Trade and Industry within South Africa as a Policy Analyst. Thereafter, she became aCountry Risk Analyst at the Development Bank of Southern Africa in 2010 where she specialized in economic development, politicalrisk and finance in Africa. She has a strong background in research, empirical analysis and statistical modeling in order to do in-depth risk assessment in guidance of major infrastructure projects.
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Management Team (in attendance)
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Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested.The data contained in this presentation has been sourced by Mara Delta Property Holdings Limited (“Mara Delta”) and should be independently verified before further use. This presentation is intended to be for informationpurposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect.
The material in this presentation is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or taxadvice, or investment recommendations. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Mara Delta does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. No responsibility can be accepted for error of fact or opinion.
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Disclaimer