Yvette P. Richardson Nettie R. Arnott James N. Marquis Brian Monahan June 14, 2004
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Transcript of Yvette P. Richardson Nettie R. Arnott James N. Marquis Brian Monahan June 14, 2004
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Analyses of the 10 June and Analyses of the 10 June and 19 June 2002 IHOP 19 June 2002 IHOP
Convection Initiation CasesConvection Initiation Cases(with a minor plug for BLE!)(with a minor plug for BLE!)
Yvette P. RichardsonYvette P. Richardson
Nettie R. ArnottNettie R. Arnott
James N. MarquisJames N. Marquis
Brian MonahanBrian Monahan
June 14, 2004June 14, 2004
IHOP Scientific WorkshopIHOP Scientific Workshop
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Surface Analysis Surface Analysis 1900 UTC1900 UTC
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Overall EvolutionOverall Evolution
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Data Collection: 1918 UTC – 2118 UTCCI: 2103 UTC
10 June 2002 IOR10 June 2002 IOR
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Sounding in IOR 2044 UTCSounding in IOR 2044 UTC
3 km AGL
LCL
Top of domain
Dry air above boundary layer
Weak capping inversion
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Sounding near CI 1935 UTCSounding near CI 1935 UTC
3 km AGL
LCL
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High Temporal Resolution LHigh Temporal Resolution Loopoop
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King Air W vs. Radar WKing Air W vs. Radar W
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
King Air Radar
740 m AGL Correlation = 0.78
A A’
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
King Air Radar
1230 m AGL Correlation = 0.83
A A’
King Air track = black line
Warm colors = +w
Cold colors = -w
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100 m AGL
Warm colors = convergence
Cold colors =
Divergence
Contoured every
2 x 10 –3 s-1
(0 contour not shown)
23.
5
km
23.0 km
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23.
5
km23.0 km
100 m AGL
Warm colors = convergence
Cold colors =
Divergence
Contoured every
2 x 10 –3 s-1
(0 contour not shown)
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23.
5
km23.0 km
100 m AGL
Warm colors = convergence
Cold colors =
Divergence
Contoured every
2 x 10 –3 s-1
(0 contour not shown)
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23.
5
km23.0 km
100 m AGL
Warm colors = convergence
Cold colors =
Divergence
Contoured every
2 x 10 –3 s-1
(0 contour not shown)
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Parcel trajectory moviesParcel trajectory movies
Box =IOR
Height = 1.4 km
View Point: Ahead of the cold front looking towards the North West
Parcels reach 100 m AGL at 1953 UTC
Parcels reach 100 m AGL at 2017 UTC
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1955 UTC 1946 UTC
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2007 UTC 2010 UTC
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2020 UTC
IOR convergence beings weakening
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2025 UTC
IOR convergence beings weakening
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2034 UTC
IOR convergence beings weakening
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2039 UTC
IOR convergence beings weakening
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2045 UTC
IOR convergence beings weakening
2037 UTC
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2055 UTC
IOR convergence beings weakening
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2056 UTC
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2143 UTC
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Why was there no initiation of Why was there no initiation of deep convection within the deep convection within the
IOR?IOR?
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Behind cold front Ahead of cold front
Potential Temperature at 600 m Potential Temperature at 600 m AGLAGL
P3 Track
1939 UTC
1956 UTC
2035 UTC2018 UTC
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Mobile Mesonet WarmingMobile Mesonet Warming
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Convection did not initiate in Convection did not initiate in IOR because…IOR because…
Weakening temperature gradient Weakening temperature gradient across cold front led to weaker across cold front led to weaker frontal circulationfrontal circulation
Dry air aloft made growth difficult Dry air aloft made growth difficult to sustainto sustain2007 UTC 2056 UTCWeakening
convergence
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Why did convection initiate Why did convection initiate so close by?so close by?
Enhanced Enhanced convergence?convergence?
Cold front did not Cold front did not dissipate?dissipate?
Boundary – cold front Boundary – cold front intersection? Hints of intersection? Hints of this in satellite and this in satellite and radar dataradar data
Did wave pattern along Did wave pattern along front have any front have any influence?influence?
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Future WorkFuture Work
ELDORA data near CI (with Kingsmill)ELDORA data near CI (with Kingsmill) Photogrammetry to map cloudsPhotogrammetry to map clouds Submit paper for Special IssueSubmit paper for Special Issue Data assimilation / Numerical modelingData assimilation / Numerical modeling
Fill in data gapsFill in data gaps Influence of nearby developing convectionInfluence of nearby developing convection Influence of warming and convective Influence of warming and convective
instabilityinstability
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June 19 CI CaseJune 19 CI Case
Dryline near Colby, KSDryline near Colby, KS
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DOW3
XPOL
DOW2 DOW2
XPOL
IOR #1
IOR #2
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DOW3
DOW2
XPOLDOW2
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Deployment #2 – 21:20+ Deployment #2 – 21:20+ UTCUTC
2514
13.5
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Deployment B Loop 1Deployment B Loop 1 Deployment B Loop 2Deployment B Loop 2
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Z=400m
Vorticity in Color
White contours of w
Strong misocyclones – separated from w by approximately ¼ wavelength
wmax
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Misocyclones similar intensity to previous time
Updraft filling in along line
Z=400m
Vorticity in Color
White contours of w
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DOW3 21:23
Initiation of Deep Convection
Cells apparent at 21:23 in DOW3 scans
Initiation captured by XPOL but occurs ‘behind’ DOW3 while DOW2 is in motion
Unclear if origin can be traced to features within the IOR
Aircraft may be needed to fill in the gaps
DZ
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Later InitiationLater Initiation
Deployment 2 Loop 3Deployment 2 Loop 3
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MisocycloneMisocyclone Loop w/raw radar data Loop w/raw radar data
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4pm CDT Dustdevil 6 pm CDT Landspout
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Future WorkFuture Work
Combine wind analyses with water vapor Combine wind analyses with water vapor measurements (lidar, mobile mesonets, measurements (lidar, mobile mesonets, dropsondes, satellite, MIPS, mobile dropsondes, satellite, MIPS, mobile radiometer, etc.)radiometer, etc.)
Perform trajectory calculations to look at Perform trajectory calculations to look at initiation and misocyclone formation/evolutioninitiation and misocyclone formation/evolution
Cloud Photogrammetry Analysis (with Erik Cloud Photogrammetry Analysis (with Erik Rasmussen)Rasmussen)
Submit Paper for Special IssueSubmit Paper for Special Issue
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Boundary Layer EvolutionBoundary Layer Evolution(14 June 2002)(14 June 2002)
Fine Resolution Radar Loop from 130Fine Resolution Radar Loop from 1300-1900 UTC0-1900 UTC