YOUTH VIOLENCE Perception vs. Reality

URBAN INSTITUTEWASHINGTON, DCWASHINGTON, DC

YOUTH VIOLENCE

Perception vs. Reality

Prepared by Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.THE URBAN INSTITUTE

Program on Law & Behavior

July 1999


The Juvenile Court System Has Been Widely Criticized in Recent Years

• Juvenile courts are perceived as weak and ineffective.

• The term “juvenile justice” has almost become a synonym for soft, lenient, and outmoded.

• This perception has encouraged lawmakers to make profound changes in juvenile crime policy.

• The juvenile justice system is now more formalized and adversarial and far more youth are sent to adult court.


Conventional Wisdom Suggests:

Crime policy should focus on juveniles because they are responsible for most of our violent crime problems.

Although a common perception,this is wrong, or at least misleading.


Percent Under Age 18 in 1997

U.S. Population 26%

Total Arrests 19%

Violent Index Arrests 17%

Arrests for Murder 14%

Property Index Arrests 35%

Violence is Not Disproportionately a “Juvenile” Problem

Source: Urban Institute analysis of data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).


Policy focuses on juveniles because:

But, some of the focus is misplaced:• Data analyses can distort the role of juveniles in violence.

• It is common to highlight the juvenile crime problem by contrasting it with adult crime.

• This masks the fact that young adults (ages 18-23) are violent at a higher rate than juveniles.

• Juveniles are the leading edge of the problem; crime and violence start to emerge during the teen years.

• Prevention and early intervention must focus on juveniles.


Juvenile Murder Rate Spiked in 1990s


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19971994199119881985198219791976

Arrests per 100,000

Juvenile Murder Arrests




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19971994199119881985198219791976

Arrests per 100,000


Adult Murder Arrests

The contrast between juvenile arrests and adult arrests leads us to conclude that juveniles were responsible for the increase in murder arrests from 1984 to 1994.




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19971994199119881985198219791976

Arrests per 100,000


Adult Murder Arrests


10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45Age at Arrest

But, note what the term “juvenile” means.


10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45Age at Arrest


10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45Age at Arrest

Juvenile

Each State sets the age of juvenile court jurisdiction, usually under 18.

Anyone arrested under that age is a juvenile.

Those over that age are adults.


10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45Age at Arrest

Juvenile Adult

“Youth”

But “adults” have widely varying arrest rates.

Most violent crimes, in fact, are committed by “youth” in theirlate teens and early twenties.


10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45Age at Arrest

This can be seen by looking at the per capita rate of arrests forViolent Index Crimes by age.


10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45Age at Arrest


10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Violent Index CrimesArrests per 100,000

1,000

600

800

200

400

Age at Arrest

1997


10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45


1,000

600

800

200

400

Age at Arrest

1997

Source: Urban Institute analysis of FBI data. Note: Arrest data are not available by single years of age below age 15 or above age 24.

Among 13 and 14-year-olds, there were 360 arrests for every 100,000 13 and 14-year-olds in the population in 1997.


10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45


1,000

600

800

200

400

Age at Arrest

1997


The rate climbed to nearly 600 arrests per 100,000 among 15-year-olds.


10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45


1,000

600

800

200

400

Age at Arrest

1997



10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45


1,000

600

800

200

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Age at Arrest

1997


The rate continued to climb until peaking at age 18, and then started to fall.


10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45


1,000

600

800

200

400

Age at Arrest

1997



10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45


1,000

600

800

200

400

Age at Arrest

1997


This “age-crime curve” confirms that the rate of violent crime peaks in the late teen years and early twenties.


10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45


1,000

600

800

200

400

Age at Arrest

1997



10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45


1,000

600

800

200

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Age at Arrest

Juvenile

Adult

1997


Most of the peak crime years are in the adult category.


10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45


1,000

600

800

200

400

Age at Arrest

Juvenile

Adult

1997


Combining the high-crime rates of younger adults with the low rates of older adults obscures the fact that violent crime rates are veryhigh among young adults.


10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45


1,000

600

800

200

400

Age at Arrest

Juvenile

Adult

1997



The effect this would have on policy is clear if we examine how the age-crime curve for murder changed during the crime wave of the late 1980s and early 1990s.


Murder


1980

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10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Arrests per 100,000

This was the shape of the age-crime curve for murder as of 1980.


Murder


1980

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10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Arrests per 100,000


Murder


1985

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10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Arrests per 100,000

By 1985, not much had changed.


Murder


1985

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10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Arrests per 100,000

Sharp increases appearedduring the late 1980s.


Murder


1985

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10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Arrests per 100,000


Murder


1986

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10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Arrests per 100,000


Murder


1987

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10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Arrests per 100,000


Murder


1988

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10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Arrests per 100,000


Murder


1989

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10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Arrests per 100,000


Murder


1990

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10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Arrests per 100,000


Murder


1991

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10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Arrests per 100,000


Murder


1992

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10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Arrests per 100,000


Murder


1993

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10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Arrests per 100,000


Murder


1994

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10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Arrests per 100,000

By 1994, policymakers and the public were very concerned about youth crime.

When analysts compared juvenile and adultmurder rates, the answer seemed clear:

Change in arrest rate for murder: 1980-1994 Juveniles +108% Adults -12%


Murder


1994

0

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20

30

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10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Arrests per 100,000

This comparison was common in media stories about the problem of juvenile violence.

FromCrime Time BombUS News & World Report

March 25, 1996

by Ted Gest with Victoria Pope

It seemed as if the juvenile justice system was failing to control crime.

Most States reacted by making radical changesin their juvenile justice systems and sendingmore juvenile offenders to criminal court.


Murder


1994

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10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Arrests per 100,000

The murder rate subsided between 1995 and 1997.


Murder


1995

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10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Arrests per 100,000


Murder


1996

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10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Arrests per 100,000


Murder


1997

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10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Arrests per 100,000


Look more closely at the change in murder arrest rates between 1980 and the peak year, 1994.


Murder

1994


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10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Arrests per 100,000


Murder

19941980


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10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Arrests per 100,000

Rates actually declined between 1980 and 1994 for people over age 23.


Murder

19941980


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10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Arrests per 100,000


Murder

19941980


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10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Arrests per 100,000

All of the increase was among young people.


Murder

19941980


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10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Arrests per 100,000


Murder

19941980


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10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Arrests per 100,000

But rates increased among both young adults and juveniles.


Consider the actual increase in murder arrests from 1980 to 1994.

How much of the increase was dueto changes in murders by juveniles?


Age-Specific Differences in Murder Arrests


-1,000

-500

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13-17 18-23 24-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64

Age at Arrest

1994 versus 1980

Again, the increase in murder arrests was due to growth among juveniles and young adults, not juveniles alone.


Finally, the same effect can be seen in studies of homicide by firearms versus other methods.


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1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996

Known Homicide Offenders: Age 10-17

Juvenile Murderers

With Gun

Other Methods

Source: Snyder, Howard N., and Finnegan, Terrence A. (1998) Easy Access to the FBI's Supplementary Homicide Reports: 1980-1996 [Data presentation and analysis package]. Pittsburgh, PA: National Center for Juvenile Justice [producer]. Washington, DC: Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention [distributor].

This graphic was of great concern during the mid-1990s, as it shows how the increase in juvenile homicides through 1994 was entirely gun related.


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Juvenile Murderers

With Gun

Other Methods



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1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996

Known Homicide Offenders: Age 18+

Adult Murderers (Age 18 and older)

With Gun

Other Methods


When the same analysis was applied to all adults, the difference in gun and non-gun homicides was not as stark, suggesting that there was something distinct and disturbing about “juveniles.”


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1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996


Adult Murderers (Age 18 and older)

With Gun

Other Methods



The contrast between juveniles and adults obscured the fact that young adults had the same pattern.


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1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996


Age 10-17

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1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996


Age 25 & older

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1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996


Age 18-24

Juvenile, Youth, and Adult Murderers


With gun

Other method

Young adults had virtually the same patternas juveniles. Note also that the number of homicide offenders in the young adult groupwas twice that of the juvenile age group.


Policy Implications


Perception Reality

Juvenile violence is our primary crime problem.

Real problem is violenceby “youth” (age 15-23).

To control violent crime, we need to send more juveniles to adult court.

Adult jurisdiction is not a panacea for violent crime.(If it were, crime rates would start to fall at age 17 or 18 rather than at age 20 or 21.)

To control violent crime,we need to fix our juvenile court system.

Juvenile courts are only part of the solution. We need better programs for youth in general.


The Urban Institute is a nonprofit, nonpartisan policy research organization established in Washington, D.C. in 1968. Its objectives are to sharpen thinking about society’s problems and efforts to solve them, improve government decisions and their implementation, and increase citizens’ awareness about important public choices.

Any views expressed here are those of the author and should not be attributed to The Urban Institute, its trustees, or funders.

For more information:Jeffrey A. ButtsProgram on Law & BehaviorThe Urban Institute2100 M Street, NWWashington, DC 20037or

The Urban Institute, Office of Public Affairs(202) [email protected]

YOUTH VIOLENCE Perception vs. Reality

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