Your very first Capex short novel Footprints of a Hero...Robert, group CFO, left the capex committee...

You are wasting capexes but you donrsquot have to

Footprints of a Hero

Your very first Capex short novel

1

Footprints of a HeroYou are wasting capexes but you donrsquot have to

Weissenrieder amp Co

Copyright 2017 Weissenrieder amp Co AB

To read our publications please visit our company website wwwweissenriedercom or follow us on LinkedIn where you will find the latest updated versions of all our publications

Other publications includeThe Capex Process - The Tail Wags The Dog 2017

2


3

Preface

At Weissenrieder amp Co we have met many CEOs and CFOs from many different industries that have come to the conclusion that the way they spend and allocate capexes is far from optimal

They know that a substantial part of the capexes spent goes to the wrong projects the wrong sites and the wrong businesses and they want to act

They feel the need for change but they donrsquot know what to do about it

bull Where can they find the theoretical insights and the tools that they need

bull How will the company need to change

bull And how much is it worth to solve the problem

Follow Robert on his endeavor to improve long-term cash flow by fundamentally changing the way his company prioritizes when spending capexes

The Characters in this fable are fictitious any resemblance to real people or facts within the Corporation is pure coincidence only


Chapter OneThe Capex Process - The Tail Wags The Dog

4

Robert group CFO left the capex committee meeting with a sinking feeling of being responsible for something but not in control of it

Every three months the committee that he chairs reviews a current list of capex requests Except for the board of directors the capex committee is the final yea or nay when it comes to capexes This is the group that is responsible for arguably the most fundamental task of any listed company - allocating capital Ultimately the capex committee impacts the allocation between divi-dends and investments between organic growth and acquisitions between different businesses and different sites but what they actually do is prioritize between different discrete capexes

In theory the process is rigorous It includes approval routes tollgates standardized templates company-wide macro assumptions and a set of industry standard decision criteria that is used to evaluate and rank requests Still Robert left every single one of these committee meetings with a feeling of being out of control almost manipulated by the process Or he felt forced by circum-stances to react to needs rather than act out a grand plan a strategy

Most of the meeting hersquod just attended had concerned one single site that was in dire straits and faced a number of capexes to comply with environmental standards Standards that the company had to follow to avoid production limitations but also a standard that they wanted to follow not the least because more and more customers demanded it (without wanting to pay anything extra of course) It was a site with a healthy ROCE but mediocre margins The capexesrsquo NPV were there and the paybacks were short (compared to losing volumes or price) However it was a mill that popped up regularly on the ldquoneedrdquo list when it came to capexes and even though ROCE looked healthy

5

Robert could not remember when the site in question had contributed any significant level of cash flow But ndash again ndash the need was there the assumptions in the request looked realistic ndash positive NPV and a 12 month payback

How could he say no Why should he say no Could he say no Based on what To the great irritation of a number of people Robert had procrastinated on making a decision He felt trapped by the process because he felt intuitively and by experience that something was wrong He thought that the process was too myopic too near-sighted when what they really needed was a birdrsquos-eye view

A certain text had continuously popped up in Robertrsquos LinkedIn feed as contacts of his had ldquosharedrdquo or ldquolikedrdquo it ldquoThe Capex Process ndash The tail wags the dogrdquo Well he had two hours to kill on a flight this afternoon maybe hersquod finally read the articles

6

7

rdquoRobert could not remember when the site in question had contributed any significant level of cash flowrdquo

Chapter TwoWhat the is wrong with our capex process

8

Glen who had worked as a process engineer in the pulp mill for 20 years did not understand it A group of corporates had just finished a short speech to the employees at the mill The mill was shutting down Not temporarily but for good Only a couple of years ago more or less the same group of people was giving a very different speech after having spent close to $100000000 on replacing digesters and upgrading the bleach plant Glen remembered the enthusiasm he himself had crunched much of the data behind the decision to invest The paybackwas less than 24 months and the millrsquos return on capital employed that year before the capex decision was reported at 20-well above the group average and target The project had for the most part been successful and was implemented more or less according to plan Yet here they now stood only a couple of years later facing a closure

Mary the CEO was also thinking about that $100000000 capex She had been the group CFO at the time and she had endorsed the decision Mary bitterly regretted it now Not only did the money invested go to waste but maybe more importantly they had not spent that money in the mills that they still operated and that they hoped to operate for many decades to come Still she did not know if she would act differently if faced with a similar decision now How could she avoid making the same mistake again The numbers the net present value the payback and the millrsquos return on capital employed-all pointed her in the direction of making the decision to spend the money Additionally the mill management had easily convinced her of the technical and market need for improving brightness and quality Yet here she was - communicating the permanent closure of the mill

When in the car with Robert the current CFO she asked ldquoRobert-how can we avoid spending large

9

amounts of money on sites only to see them go down a few years later What the is wrong with our capex process Why could we not see this comingrdquo She was now talking more to herself than to Robert ldquoIt is not the first time and I bet it is not the last time Donrsquot even get me started on acquisitions How many of those have we lived to regret Robert I know I am upset now but tell me how on earth I with a straight face can tell my board when they ask critical questions on our capital expenditures or acquisitions that it is all different now that we have learned our lesson We are not different We continue to do the same thing over and over again And itrsquos not only us Itrsquos the whole industry Robert tell me ndash what should we do differentlyrdquo

Robert was quiet for a short moment He had spent a large amount of time over the last six months when agonizing over the closure decision pondering that ex-act question ldquoMary I donrsquot think it is the capex process as such that is at fault I think it is a case of putting the carriage before the horse or the tail wagging the dogrdquo Robert could see Mary opening her mouth to say ldquoWhatrdquo but he raised his hand and pleaded ldquoBear with merdquo He continued ldquoI think that our capex process is so strong and institutionalized that it has taken precedence over any long-term capex allocation strategy that we may have The capex process should be there to help administer and implement a long-term asset strategy or capex allocation strategy I am not talking about a three-or five-year plan but something much longer in scope After this closure we have 12 sites with a capacity of around four million tons of packaging pulp and paper If we disregard acqui-sitions for a while do you think that we will have all 12 existing sites operating 15 years from nowrdquo

There was a moment of silence ldquoNo we wonrsquotrdquo replied Mary ldquoI agree I donrsquot think so eitherrdquo said

10

Robert ldquoIf I had to guess it will probably be closer to seven or eight sites still producing more than four million tons-or even morerdquo Again he pausedldquoWe know that we will be facing closures Continuously We also know that we will need to expand other sitesrdquo ldquoI think you are right Robert so what should we dordquo Mary asked again

Robert continued ldquoI have the feeling that closures are something that ldquohappensrdquo to us something we are ldquoforcedrdquo to do It should not be like that We should take responsibility and plan for closures and exits long before they happen We should choose based on the long-term cash flow or the whole system of mills where we should be long term and where we plan to exit three five and ten years from now and how to coordinate that with expansions and volume moves to the remaining systemrdquo

Robert paused for a second thinking ldquoGo on Irsquom listeningrdquo said Mary

ldquoI think in such a capex regime no decision can be made in isolation Each and every capex decision needs to be tested against the larger and system-wide asset strategy Does it fit or does it change or challenge the current strategy In short we need to put the horse in front of the carriage and give the dog control of its tailhelliprdquo

ldquoI am not sure I like your lousy metaphors but it you are rightrdquo said Mary ldquoRobert I want you to look into this now I mean it Now I am not making any large strategic decision before we sort something out We need a long-term asset strategy and we need to connect that to the capex process And Roberthellip this cannot be a financial exercise We need to involve market business owners energy engineering controlling raw material supply etc I donrsquot want this to be a one-time thing Who can help us Where is the external expertise Where are the tools How can we get this into our DNA And also how much would it be worth to usrdquo

11

Chapter ThreeWe are losing three hundred grand every single day

13

Robert started his second lap around the artificial lake just outside the offices walking and sipping on a decaf coffee This morning he had been through a number of meetings with the ldquousual suspectsrdquo when it comes to management and strategy consultants All of the tools and processes that they had discussed regarding improving the allocation of capital between sites machines acquisitions and dividends did not seem to address the fundamental question ndash what to do differently Not just more of or improvements on the same ndash but fundamentally different Robert could not stop thinking about the series of articles he had read on the plane ldquoThe Capex Process-the tail wags the dogrdquo He had read them all several times just weeks before that conversation in the car with Mary Those aticles had inspired him when answering Maryrsquos question ldquoWhat should we do differentlyrdquo Since then he had also used a little tool that he had found on the internet to try to answer the last question Mary had asked in the car-how much would it be worth to fundamentally and sustainably improve the effect of investments and capexes The group spent around 400 million USD on capexes every yearThe authors of ldquoThe tail wags the dogrdquo claimed that any company should expect a minimum improvement in capex efficiency of 10 when tying the capex process to a whole business asset strategy Testimonials claimed much higher percentages Robert himself sincerely believed that if successful a 20 efficiency improvement was possible It would not necessarily mean a 20 reduction it would just mean a different sometimes very different view on how to allocate capital and resources over time Twenty percent would mean 80 million USD every year in lost cash flow due to less than

14

rdquoWhat should we do differentlyrdquo

optimal decision making on capex Or more than 300000 USD per working day There was no question in Robertrsquos mind that there was real value in trying to take control of the capex process from a longer-term and holistic point of viewhellipand the ldquousual suspectsrdquo would be of little help Time to go to the source Robert determined to call the authors of the series of articles hersquod read and ask for help

The senior consultant Robert contacted had made a real impression on Mary and Robert If before their meeting they had little doubt about the need to change the whole regime regarding capex allocation they were now absolutely convinced And they knew where to start Not with the capex process but with the long-term asset strategy

When Robert returned from his walk Mary called him into her office and said ldquoRobert I want you to look into that list of requirements on an Asset Strategy Tool that the guy talked about Do we agree Are they the only ones providing such a tool Can we do it ourselves How would we work with such a tool and how would we change our processesrdquoldquoOk ndash I am on itrdquoldquoAnd donrsquot lingerhellipwe are losing three hundred grand every single dayrdquo

15

16

rdquoRobert I want you to look into this now I mean it Now I am not making any large strategic decision before we sort something out We need a long-term asset strategy and we need to connect that to the capex processrdquo

Chapter FourAsset Strategy - Check Tools - Check Buy-in 100

17

Robert the CFO was in the middle of his presentation to the board Mary his CEO sat amongst the rest of the board next to the chairman and listened Robert and Mary had been through the presentation in detail several times in preparation for today Mary had also prepped the chairman of the board and she felt confident Still the rest of the board had not been along for the ride They had not gone through all the discussions all the details all the alternatives all the scenarios and sensitivities They had not seen the entire project group including senior management go through an emotional yes emotional roller coaster of facing up to the industryrsquos long term realities The members of the board had not seen how the group had not only accepted but come to embrace the responsibilities of both creation and destruction that come with running a major company Today however the board would see the outcome the asset strategy that Maryrsquos team supported and believed in 100

Mary remembered how the project group together with a team of specialist consultants had created a so-called Base Alternative an alternative where they just carried on running all businesses as going concerns The outcome evaluated from a long-term cash flow and enterprise value perspective was thorough Many sites were in dire straits already and would if nothing were done have to be closed over the next decade Many participants did not at first believe the outcome of the Base Alternative However it soon became obvious to everyone that the future that the Base Alternative depicted was no worse or different than the history had been and they had all been through it

The consultants and the specially designed software had guided the group throughout the process from detailed model building to analyses of outcomes Every participant of the project had their personalized interface

18

with the tool and the consultants facilitated a collabora-tive process that still made all assumptions calculations and inputs transparent and possible to challenge and easy to test from a sensitivity point of view

Once the Base Alternative was established the real work got started Assume that nothing is a going concern What happens if we expand Mill A And close Mill B early Can we convert Machine 10 to produce something else Is there an opportunity to rebuild the back-end of Mill D Can we close two mills within three years and rebuild Mill F and G etc All in all the roup had constructed 25 different Strategic Building Blocks individual strategic initiatives These had then been combined into 97 different whole business Strategic Alternatives Out of these 97 alternatives one had panned out One selected Asset Strategy that maximized the long-term discounted cash flow and enterprise value of the business One Asset Strategy which the entire team supported even if not all were happy about all the decisions it meant implementing They supported it from the point of view that it was the best way forward for the company It was not necessarily the best way forward for each individual mill They had learned in the process that the sum of what is best for each mill is seldom or never what is best for the whole company

From a cash flow point of view the result was very interesting Historically they had spent around 400 million USD per year in capexes Interestingly that number would slightly decrease on an average over the next decade Yet they would spend it very differently It would be much more concentrated And they would get a lot more cash flow back definitely more ldquobang for the buckrdquo The difference in enterprise value between the Base Alternative and the selected Asset Strategy was roughly 30 or 800 million USD

19

Mary believed it Of course numbers would be different going forward Neither they nor the consul-tants nor the tool was a crystal ball Still all the tests with sensitivities and scenarios had convinced her and the team the value was in that ballpark Not only that for the first time since Mary had been in a senior executive position she had a team running the company that was in alignment regarding the major asset decisions going forward It would certainly make her life easier Sure things would change things that they had not tested for They would come up with new ideas Good

Robert was just talking about how the tool would be used in the ongoing strategy process How different users are respon-sible for updating data how new Strategic Building Blocks can be created and allowed to challenge the current Asset Strategy

Mr Anderson the chairman of the board asked Robert and Mary ldquoSo do you expect us to make a decision on this entire strategy as one piece We cannot do thatrdquo Mary had expected this question

ldquoNo We will ask for decisions on individual capexes and closures just as before but we want to relate and evaluate all decisions in relation to the current long-term Asset Strategy We no longer evaluate any strategic capexes or asset decisions in isolation We ask for decisions on them just as we have done before but we evaluate them and present them in the context of the long-term Asset Strategy If you will you can say that we are putting the horse in front of the carriage or giving the dog control of its tailrdquo Mary looked at Robert and smiled She had started to appreciate his some-times-stupid metaphors

20

rdquoIf you will you can say that we are putting the horse in front of the carriage or giving the dog con-trol of its tailrdquo

Chapter FiveThe New Capex Process

21

Robert who chaired the Capex Committee looked at his wristwatch ldquoSo are we in agreementrdquo he asked the rest of the group It was more of a rhetorical question than a real one He knew they were all aligned And it had been almost friction free They would all get home in time for dinner He was not sure everyone appreciated that though The thought made him smile wryly

Only last year he had dreaded these meetings Someone had jokingly called it BCT ndash Before the Capex Tool Even though the requests were supposed to use the same models and templates they had often been ldquotweakedrdquo or sometimes even manipulated They had changed hands many times and the end result was something akin to a game of ldquoWhisperrdquo What ended up at the capex committee was often unrecognizable to the original author and no one could understand the at best manually kept change log Therefore it was also difficult with certainty to say who changed what and when And that had been the easy part to handle The real challenge had been agreeing on the capexes to commit to and which ones to deny or potentially postpone Robert had previously BCT always left the Capex Committee meetings with a feeling of being out of control of being forced to accept capexes in sites and machinery on which he really really did not want to spend any money

However the requests always looked so good He knew the site was using outdated equipment and that the numbers showed a very short payback and a very good NPV On top of that the sitesrsquo ROCE was way above the company average and target How could he say no In fact before this year he could not So the money went to wherever the shortest paybacks were found It just so happened that they were seldom found in the sites and machinery that were state of the art Too little of the money had ended up being spent on the sites that they

22

would still operate in ten fifteen year On that Robert would bet his right arm Now the model templates strategic rational classification users change logs approval routing the process you name it were all standardized and transparent Very important in itself but Robert suspected that any modern Capex Management Tools could help out with that What set their chosen solution apart was how it interconnected with the long- term Asset Strategy that they had established How ranking based on payback took the second seat compared to how that particular capex interplayed with the Asset Strategy - was it aligned What did the Asset Strategy say about the long-term survivability of the asset What was to be expected over the next five ten or even fifteen years when it came to reinvestment invest-ment or compliance needs

The Capex Committee was looking at a ldquodash-boardrdquo summarizing the coming yearrsquos capital budget a budget

that Robert and Mary the CEO would pre-sent to the Board of

Directors at the upcoming meeting Once a year every fall the board reviewed the tree-year investment plan and (usually) approved next yearrsquos capital budget

Sonia a senior controller raised her hand as if she was still in school ldquoYes Soniardquo Robert said

ldquoI think that we are all aligned but will the board berdquo Sonia asked and continued ldquoThe total limits we ask for are not that different from what we have used historically but the allocationhellipit ishelliphow should I say ithellipa lot more active Some businesses get a lot others very little I believe no I am convinced that is right but will the board stomach itrdquo Sonia looked at the others and the others looked at Robert Robert had expected a question like this he was rather surprised it had not come earlier It was very true what Sonia

23

ldquoI think that we are all aligned but will the board berdquo

said the capital allocation was much more active - between businesses and between sites and machinery - historic capital budgets were no longer any argument for getting money going forward neither were egalitarian principles of a certain sum per capacity or sales Egalitarian principles are very noble when it comes to people but not when it comes to machinery ndash not all machines and businesses are created equal And it meant that they as the leaders of this company had to take responsibility not only for the fun things such as installing new machinery or updating older lines and machines but also responsibility for active choices of machine site or even whole business closures Not all liked that Most people never said that they did not like taking responsibility more often they pointed at someone else that they imagined would not like it such as the CEO the board an owner the union mediahellip That is why Robert now felt so good about having started at the right end with the asset strategy and then following it up with the capex plan and budget

ldquoI would not worry more than normal about the boardrdquo Robert said ldquoThey are already in the knowrdquo He continued ldquoBoth they and the senior leadership of this company is prepared to take some heat regarding a number of the upcoming decisions but hey that is our job If we cannot stomach it well then maybe we should be doing something elserdquo Robert felt that his tone may have been unnecessarily harsh but he meant every word he said He would be damned if they as a company could not take responsibility for the tough decisions when they all agreed it was the right way to go

In the car on his way home Robert was thinking about the meeting Overall it had been great both in terms of outcome and in terms of how they had gotten there However at the end he realized that they still had one

24

thing to do regarding the job he and Mary started last year The supplier of the systems and services they had used had tried to get his attention regarding this but Robert really did not think it was necessary ndash yet the last few minutes of the meeting had made him change his mind They now had the strategy the tools and the processes in place A lot of people had been through some training and especially the select few that par-ticipated in the original Asset Strategy project last year had changed their mindset and learned to better understand how the Asset Strategy and how individual capex decision interlink with long-term cash flow and enterprise value Now Robert wanted that understanding to go beyond the select few Alright it was not for everyone in the organization but definitely more than the selected few needed to get that extra training and under-standing for him to honestly say that the mindset they strived for was now a part of the company culture

25

26

ldquoI would not worry more than normal about the boardrdquo Robert said ldquoThey are already in the knowrdquo

Chapter SixThe Capital Allocation process - from

Asset Strategy to Capex follow up - rdquoWe own itrdquo

27

Robert was out walking around the lake just outside the offices As always he was sipping on a decaf coffee Mary had for once joined him ldquoWell done Robertrdquo

ldquoThanks but really it was my group of coworkershelliprdquo Mary raised her hand and said ldquoStop it I know what

you are about to say it was really the hard work of all our colleagues etc etc etc And you are right of course it is But you started it You not only identified the need for change - you acted upon it You were the one thinking beyond what we normally do You are the one that initially took a riskrdquo

Now it was Robertrsquos turn to raise his hand and stop Mary ldquoThanks I appreciate it but it is a part of my job The responsibility for the capital allocation process is in my job description and really it was not until now or very recently that the tools and process that enabled us to do this was made available to anyonerdquo

ldquoThatrsquos rightrdquo said Mary ldquobut we are among the first to move when it comes to this - it will give us an edge for years maybe many years But our competitors will follow And you know what Maybe that is not so bad No one benefits from anyone wasting money not even compe-titorsrdquo

Robert finished his decaf and threw the paper cup into the green trash bin Mary did the same with the green tea in her cup and threw it into the same green bin ldquoRobert have we implemented the tools and processes properly or are we still in need of help to operate it over a cyclerdquo

ldquoWe own itrdquo Robert said with a confident smile emphasizing the word ldquoownrdquo ldquoFrom the company-wide Asset Strategy maximizing long term cash flow down to the routing and follow up of an individual capex From system administration user rights and restrictions to training of new personnelrdquo Robert continued ldquoWe have fundamentally changed the way we think about capital allocation and capexes We have changed our mind

28

set We are on top of it It is now part of our culture - we have institutionalized itrdquo Mary could not only hear but also see how Robert a normally very composed man could not help but show his enthusiasm when speaking about the new and improved capital allocation process and the system supporting it

Robert continued ldquoOur ability to use and benefit from the system that supports and ingrains our capital allocation process is not dependent on any one person group of persons or consultantsrdquo

Mary raised her right arm and rested her hand on Robertrsquos left shoulder still walking ldquoGood Because soon it will have to do without you Irsquom being put forward as the new Chairman of Board and we would like to offer you the CEO positionrdquo

Later that evening Robert was standing alone looking out over the bay This afternoon he had felt excited about the news from Mary And a little stressed Yet now he felt calm He remembered a tag line that the authors of ldquoThe tail wags the dogrdquo had presented to him when introducing the systems and solutions that Robert eventually had implemented in the company At the time Robert thought it was a little silly but now it came to him The view of the sea with the mountains in the background was stunning and soothing he was home early enough to kiss his kids goodnight He felt calm and confident

He had made the ldquoWeissrrdquo decision

29

Weissenrieder Software Solutions

You can also make a rdquoweissrrdquo decision With Weissenrieder Solutions you will know how to allocate time and capital and utilize an asset strategy that is aligned with your companyrsquos core business

Contact us to learn more

contactweissenriedercom ph +46 (0)31 761 07 30

About Weissenrieder amp Co

Weissenrieder amp Co is an international leader in Asset Strategy and Capex Management We have served the capital-intensive industry globally for more than 20-years Our unique methods and systems enable industrial companies to optimize their Asset Strategy and capital allocation in order to maximize their total cash flow

Weissenrieder amp Co has helped to establish long term asset strategies for over 500 production sites with a total replacement cost exceeding euro80000000000 and a total investment value within the immediate five-year period of more than euro7000000000

For more information visit our companyrsquos website wwwweissenriedercom or on LinkedIn

Weissenrieder amp CoKungsportsavenyen 34

SE-411 36 GoumlteborgSweden

contactweissenriedercomwwwweissenriedercom

+46 (0)31 761 07 30

A Weissenrieder production copyWeissenrieder amp Co

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Footprints of a HeroYou are wasting capexes but you donrsquot have to





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Your very first Capex short novel Footprints of a Hero...Robert, group CFO, left the capex committee...

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Transcript of Your very first Capex short novel Footprints of a Hero...Robert, group CFO, left the capex committee...