YOUR FINANCIAL FUTURE · 8/29/2016  · Your Guide to Life Planning August 2016 Mark Henderson RFC,...

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YOUR FINANCIAL FUTURE Your Guide to Life Planning August 2016 Mark Henderson RFC, CFP Hamburg Financial Group LPL Financial Advisor 1846 S Hwy 27 Somerset, KY 42501 606-451-0393 [email protected] In This Issue Bond Market Perspectives | Week of August 22, 2016 Overseas investors remain a key support of domestic bond prices and have helped to drive the 10-year Treasury yield to a recent level of 1.55%. Kids & Money: Important Lessons Start Early in Life The first step in teaching children responsible money management skills is to start early and set a strong example. Intergenerational Wealth Planning: A Win-Win for the Whole Family Wealth transfer is a sensitive topic within families. But addressing it is crucial to ensuring that a planning process is created and passes from one generation to the next. Double Your Impact With These Charitable Giving Strategies Charitable lead trusts add a win-win to your estate planning agenda: they can serve the financial needs of family and other loved ones while also funding the charities you care about. Weekly Market Commentary | Week of August 22, 2016 This week we look at what stocks may be telling us about the presidential election.

Transcript of YOUR FINANCIAL FUTURE · 8/29/2016  · Your Guide to Life Planning August 2016 Mark Henderson RFC,...

Page 1: YOUR FINANCIAL FUTURE · 8/29/2016  · Your Guide to Life Planning August 2016 Mark Henderson RFC, CFP Hamburg Financial Group LPL Financial Advisor 1846 S Hwy 27 Somerset, KY 42501

YOUR FINANCIAL FUTUREYour Guide to Life Planning

August 2016

Mark Henderson RFC, CFPHamburg Financial GroupLPL Financial Advisor1846 S Hwy 27Somerset, KY [email protected]

In This Issue

Bond Market Perspectives | Week of August 22, 2016Overseas investors remain a key support of domestic bond prices and have helped to drive the10-year Treasury yield to a recent level of 1.55%.

Kids & Money: Important Lessons Start Early in LifeThe first step in teaching children responsible money management skills is to start early andset a strong example.

Intergenerational Wealth Planning: A Win-Win for theWhole FamilyWealth transfer is a sensitive topic within families. But addressing it is crucial to ensuring thata planning process is created and passes from one generation to the next.

Double Your Impact With These Charitable Giving StrategiesCharitable lead trusts add a win-win to your estate planning agenda: they can serve thefinancial needs of family and other loved ones while also funding the charities you care about.

Weekly Market Commentary | Week of August 22, 2016This week we look at what stocks may be telling us about the presidential election.

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Bond Market Perspectives | Week of August 22, 2016

 

HIGHLIGHTS 

Foreign demand has helped drive Treasury yields lower and support prices over the past year, thoughincreasing hedging costs may prove problematic moving forward.Demand from indirect bidders continues to be strong at Treasury auctions, muddying the argumentthat higher hedging costs may cause foreign demand to weaken.For now, foreign demand remains supportive of domestic bond prices.

IS FOREIGN DEMAND FADING?

Overseas investors remain a key support of domestic bond prices and have helped to drive the 10-yearTreasury yield to a recent level of 1.55%.  Although weaker than expected economic growth over the first half of2016 and sluggish growth in Europe and Asia have contributed to bond strength, foreign demand forTreasuries has played a large and increasing role in Treasury strength.

Record amounts of monetary stimulus from central banks around the world have led to low or even negativeyields for government debt in many developed nations, with Fitch data indicating that $11 trillion in debt isnow trading at negative yields worldwide. The yield differential between 10-year U.S., Japanese, and Germanbonds shown in Figure 1 makes it easy to see why foreign investors have shown more interest in U.S. debt thisyear.

HEDGING COSTS INCREASE

U.S. Treasuries would seem a logical choice for overseas investors seeking the safety of government bonds,given their yield advantage. However, foreign investors have one additional risk to factor in--currencymovements. If the dollar depreciates relative to the investor's home currency, the investor receives less of thelocal currency back for each dollar, reducing total return. Given that exchange rates can be volatile, it ispossible that a depreciating dollar could wipe out a significant portion (or all) of any advantage the investorwould see from investing in the U.S., especially with interest rates at low absolute levels.

For this reason, overseas investors may choose to hedge their U.S. dollar investments via currency futures bybuying dollars at the spot rate, and simultaneously selling currency forward to lock in a given exchange rateover a selected period of time. In this way, currency hedging can help reduce the risk of unforeseen currencyswings. However, a currency hedge involves a cost and this cost can fluctuate over time due to a variety offactors.

Figure 2 shows that after accounting for the cost of a currency hedge, the yield advantage of 10-year Treasurieshas diminished greatly over the past year versus the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB). Treasurystrength, coupled with an increase in hedging costs, has brought the post-hedge yield of the Treasury more

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 3   Your Guide to Life Planning

 in-line with comparable JGBs in recent weeks, making the trade less attractive for overseas investors. A similarphenomenon is occurring with regard to German bunds. Treasury prices have been range bound to slightlyweaker, after the 10-year Treasury yield reached a new all-time low in early July 2016, suggesting that foreigndemand may be fading.

U.S. Treasuries may be considered "safe" investments but do carry some degree of risk including interestrate, credit and market risk.

The currency spot rate is the current quoted exchange rate that a currency pair could be bought or sold. If aninvestor or hedger conducts a trade at the currency spot rate, the exchange of the currency pair may takeplace at the point at which the trade took place or shortly after the trade.

Futures trading is not suitable for all investors, and involves the risk of loss. Futures are a leveragedinvestment, and because only a percentage of a contract's value is required to trade, it is possible to losemore than the amount of money deposited for a futures position.

NO DECLINE IN AUCTION DEMAND

Rising currency hedging costs would seem to indicate foreign demand may decline, but auction data suggestforeign demand remains strong. The percentage of total purchases (known as takedown) from indirect bidders,a group of auction bidders that includes foreign investors, was near all-time highs on the most recent 10-yearauction [Figure 3]. The indirect bidder takedown has been elevated for auctions across the maturity spectrum,including the 5-year and 30-year, according to Treasury data. In other words, if foreign demand is fading, it iscertainly not showing in auction data thus far.

This week will provide another glimpse of overseas demand as the Treasury auctions 2-, 5-, and 7-yearsecurities. The indirect bidder percentage will be scrutinized to see if foreign demand is fading. Although thecost to hedge the impact of currency movements has increased, it is too early to determine if these costs alonewill erode overseas investor demand--a key support of domestic bond markets in 2016.

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ANOTHER CHECK

More comprehensive data on overseas buying of Treasuries are captured by the Treasury International Capital(TIC) report. The most recent report revealed that though flows for the past 12 months remained negative (dueto overseas central bank sales), foreign entities were net buyers of Treasuries during the month of June 2016,with demand from private investors (which include everything other than central banks), outpacing sales fromforeign central banks by approximately $7.6 billion. So although foreign central banks may be reducingTreasury purchases, the amount was more than offset by institutional and individual investor demand.

The number of foreign buyers of Treasuries that hedge their bond currency exposure is unknown, which makesit difficult to assess how much hedging costs may impact demand. While hedging costs certainly play a role,especially for larger institutional investors, other investors may simply choose not to hedge currencymovement either due to cost, size of transaction, or perhaps because they believe that currency fluctuationscan help with diversification.

CONCLUSION

Historic monetary stimulus from central banks has left government bond yields for many developed nations innegative territory, and corporate bond purchase programs from the European Central Bank and Bank ofEngland have led to declining yields on other high-quality bond options, leaving foreign investors with fewoptions for attractive yields on low-risk assets. Extraordinary policy moves by overseas central banks appearunlikely to reverse soon and may continue to provide ongoing support to bond prices.

Increasing hedging costs and lower Treasury yields may be a headwind for foreign demand going forward,though a lack of data showing the proportion of buyers who hedge makes it difficult to determine the impact.Other indicators, including demand from indirect bidders at Treasury auctions and the (less timely) TIC reportcontinue to show that foreign demand remains supportive of Treasury strength, at least for now.

 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specificadvice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate foryou, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance reference is historical and is noguarantee of future results. All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted and there can be noguarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values and yields willdecline as interest rates rise, and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

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 5   Your Guide to Life Planning

 Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment ofprincipal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.

International debt securities involve special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to,currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards. Theserisks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investmentadvisor, please note that LPL Financial is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect tosuch entity.

Not FDIC or NCUA/NCUSIF Insured | No Bank or Credit Union Guarantee | May Lose Value | NotGuaranteed by Any Government Agency | Not a Bank/Credit Union Deposit

Tracking #1-528746 (Exp. 08/17)

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To ensure thatimportant life goalsremain at the forefrontof your children's -- andlikely heirs' -- prioritiesthroughout theirlifetimes, incorporatethe use of incentives inyour estate plan.

Kids & Money: Important Lessons Start Early in Life

 Today many affluent families are concerned about the potentially adverse effect of wealth on youngergenerations. As a result, the goals that many high-net-worth parents and grandparents have set for theirchildren or grandchildren reflect core values, an honest work ethic, and a desire to give back to the greatercommunity.

Walking the Talk

The skills and knowledge needed to help children achieve these goals should be developed early in life andcontinue well into adulthood. The following strategies can assist older family members in becoming positivefinancial role models for children.

Start early -- Parents can start talking to children about money at as young as age three. Between four andfive, you can explain the importance of good spending habits, and by age six or seven, you can help childrenopen a bank savings account. By the time children reach their mid-teens, they should start seeking after-schooland summer employment.

Support education -- Personal finance education helps instill such pragmatic money management skills assetting a budget, balancing a checkbook, understanding the role of debit/credit cards, and developingstrategies for funding college. Encourage your child's school to offer personal finance as an elective "life skills"course, send your teen to a community college/adult education class, or tap the many educational resourcesavailable online.

Lead by example -- Your children will learn the most valuable lessons about money from examples you set.A few simple rules: Enjoy the fruits of your labor -- but don't go overboard. Set a healthy example regardingcredit card use. Pay your bills on time. Save and review your savings plan on a regular basis. Above all, beconsistent.

Use incentives -- To ensure that important life goals remain at the forefront of your children's -- and likelyheirs' -- priorities throughout their lifetimes, incorporate the use of incentives in your estate plan. What exactlyis an incentive trust? It is an estate planning tool designed to reward desired behaviors or impose appropriatepenalties for undesirable behaviors. It also provides a way to address the needs of beneficiaries who requirespecial assistance. Common themes guiding incentive trusts are education, moral and family values, andbusiness/vocational choices, as well as charitable and religious interests.

Encourage philanthropy -- Affluent families often use philanthropy to convey the message that theirsuccess has been the result of hard work and good fortune, and that success comes with the responsibility togive something back. If you want to ensure future generations of volunteers and donors, you must model forchildren various ways to give of their time, their talents, and their money. Once children understand the scopeof their contributions, philanthropy often becomes a real and meaningful part of their lives.

If you are interested in developing a legacy plan that incorporates some of the ideas mentioned here, considerseeking the guidance of a financial and estate planning professional. Together you can create a plan that instillsfinancial responsibility in children for generations to come.

This communication is not intended to be tax or legal advice and should not be treated as such. Eachindividual's situation is different. You should contact your tax/legal professional to discuss your personalsituation.

© 2016 Wealth Management Systems Inc. All rights reserved.

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 7   Your Guide to Life Planning

Opening the dialogueabout wealth transfer isa complicated, personaldecision. It isinfluenced largely byhow wealth holdersthemselves have beenbrought up to viewmoney and theresponsibilities thatcome with it.

Intergenerational Wealth Planning: A Win-Win for the Whole Family

 Discussing the transfer of wealth from parents to children can be uncomfortable for both parties. Yet byintroducing children to the wealth management process from a young age, affluent families may be able toreduce family tensions later in life and help ensure that the planning tradition passes intact to futuregenerations.

Closing the Communication Gap

Opening the dialogue about wealth transfer is a complicated, personal decision that is influenced largely byhow wealth holders themselves have been brought up to view money and the responsibilities that come with it.For instance, some individuals may fear that discussing wealth with their children will lead to feelings ofexpectation and entitlement. Others may simply prefer to control all money issues themselves. Still others withyoung children may be uncertain about their future wealth and reluctant to discuss it until their children areolder and have proven how well -- or poorly -- they handle money.

Embracing the Planning Process

One strategy that may help families overcome planning challenges is to think about wealth planning not as aone-time exercise, but as a process that you live with every day -- and that you integrate into children's lives ata very early age.

For instance, when children are young, you can teach them to divide their allowances into three portions -- onefor saving, one for spending, and one for giving. Consider matching their giving and saving money and set anexample by handling your own money in a similar fashion.

Once children become teenagers, allow them to make their own decisions about how they spend their money,and as difficult as it may be, allow them to live with the consequences of their decisions. As children make thepassage to adulthood, gradually involve them in the family business as well as the family's charitable givingactivities.

Creating a Win-Win Solution

Certainly, the more wealth a family has, the more important it becomes to make managing wealth a process,especially if wealth has existed for multiple generations and there are instruments such as family foundationsin place. In this way, early involvement helps families prepare heirs for their future role as stewards of thefamily wealth. It also helps develop the skills and experience needed to manage a family business or wealthplan, while ensuring that such knowledge is shared and passes successfully to the next generation.

Working With Professionals

Working together with your team of planning professionals -- your financial advisor and estate and/or taxplanner -- you will be able to assess your current situation and develop first steps toward implementing a planof action.

This communication is not intended to be tax or legal advice and should not be treated as such. Eachindividual's situation is different. You should contact your tax and/or legal professional to discuss yourpersonal situation.

 

 

© 2016 Wealth Management Systems Inc. All rights reserved.

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The laws governingtrusts are extremelycomplex andindividuals should notenter into any sucharrangements withoutfirst consulting with aqualified professionalexperienced in trustmanagement.

Double Your Impact With These Charitable Giving Strategies

 Americans are a generous people. Many support charitable organizations that enhance their communities andenrich their personal lives. In addition to giving wisely to nonprofit groups, it's important to anticipatefinancial obligations to family members while you're still of sound mind.

A charitable lead trust (CLT) may be the ideal tool to help some philanthropically minded people distributeassets in a fair and cost-effective manner. A CLT offers a two-pronged approach to wealth management: onethat serves the financial needs of family members and a second that serves the funding needs of charitableendeavors that you value, whether they involve education, art, religion, medicine, or another worthy cause.

A properly structured CLT offers a grantor -- the person who establishes the trust -- an opportunity tocontribute to one or more nonprofit organizations for a set period of years, after which the asset balance of thetrust is transferred to either the grantor or another entity, typically a close relative. In addition to leaving lovedones a financial legacy that may extend years beyond the grantor's passing, a CLT can help reduce estate taxesfor heirs.

Basic Structure

The opposite of a charitable remainder trust, a CLT directs an income stream to a designated charity during aclearly stated term, whether a specific number of years (there is no limit) or for the rest of the grantor's life. Atthe end of the term, the remainder of the principal goes to either the donor or heirs. The annual charitablepayout may reflect either a fixed-dollar amount or a fixed percentage of the trust's current value, which isrevised each fiscal year.

CLTs are often the tool of choice for individuals with assets that have a high potential for future appreciation.They may also be well suited for those with heirs who are minors or otherwise not ready to assume full controlof significant assets. By creating and funding a CLT, a grantor can make final arrangements for the dispositionof an estate, but defer the date at which beneficiaries actually receive and control the property. In themeantime, the charity of choice receives immediate and ongoing benefits. When the assets do eventually passto the noncharitable beneficiaries, they are not subject to the federal estate tax.

Keep in mind, however, that the grantor is not able to claim an income tax deduction for contributing to a CLT.In addition, the grantor may have to pay a federal gift tax on a portion of each contribution, albeit only on thevalue of the remainder interest earmarked for noncharitable beneficiaries. Also remember that while a CLTallows assets to pass to heirs with no federal estate taxes, a CLT is not a tax-free entity. Any income the trustgenerates in excess of the amount paid to charity is still taxable. And the sale of appreciated assets held withinthe trust may trigger capital gains taxes.

In Practice

How might a CLT work for you? Consider this hypothetical example: A 75-year-old former businessman hasspent a good portion of his retirement years teaching his grandchildren how to paint. His love of art and needfor a meaningful income tax deduction encouraged him to create a charitable lead trust of $1 million. Of thatamount, $50,000 is directed to a local art museum each year for the rest of his life. Upon his death, theremainder of the trust assets will be divided equally among his three children.

The laws governing trusts are extremely complex and individuals should not enter into any such arrangementswithout first consulting with a qualified professional experienced in trust management. If you are interested inlearning more about using a CLT to enhance your estate-planning agenda, contact your tax and/or legaladvisors.

This communication is not intended to be tax or legal advice and should not be treated as such. Eachindividual's situation is different. You should contact your tax and/or legal professional to discuss yourpersonal situation.

© 2016 Wealth Management Systems Inc. All rights reserved.

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 9   Your Guide to Life Planning

Weekly Market Commentary | Week of August 22, 2016

 

HIGHLIGHTS

This week we look at what stocks may be telling us about the presidential election.The relative lack of volatility this summer may indicate increasing odds the market is assigning to aClinton victory.We also look at what some politically sensitive industry groups may be telling us about the electionoutcome.

WHAT THE MARKET IS TELLING US ABOUT THE ELECTION

Election years have historically been good for stocks, and this year has been no different, although with lessvolatility than we would expect during the summer of an election year. That relative calm may partly reflectthat the market is increasingly pricing in greater certainty that would come with a Hillary Clinton victory, asher support has climbed in the polls. This week we look at what the stock market and some politically sensitiveindustry groups may be telling us about the potential outcome of the presidential election in November.

WHERE'S THE ELECTION YEAR VOLATILITY?

Election years have historically been good for stocks, though with some volatility, as we wrote in our electionthemed back in May (" "). ThatWeekly Market Commentary What Might Trump the Election Year Pattern?volatility during election years has historically come during the middle and late summer months--in otherwords, about now. Although each cycle is different (especially 2008), in recent decades we have observed thatthe volatility tends to subside, and a late-year rally ensues, when markets have more clarity on the candidates'platforms and start to price in a winner.

So where has the volatility been this summer? As shown in Figure 1, the S&P 500 has gone up in nearly astraight line since mid-February, with a very short-lived interruption for Brexit before continuing its advance.This year's gains have exceeded the average election year's gain going back to 1952 (6.6%) and are on track tooutgain the average election year, even if 2008 is excluded (9.6%).

Certainly improving economic conditions have played a key role in the stock market's steady gains over thepast six months. But we believe the market has begun to price in strong odds of a Clinton victory as her lead inthe polls has increased, which brings more predictability than a Donald Trump administration. There is stilluncertainty to clear up in terms of both candidates' agendas, as well as what they could actually get throughCongress, which could lead to more volatility. The Senate could go either way at this point, while somenonpartisan, and even right leaning political pundits acknowledge that the Republican's House majority mayeven be at risk in the event of a Clinton landslide victory.

Click here to view Figures 1-5.

THE STOCK MARKET'S VOTE

We can speculate that recent stock market gains partly reflect greater certainty under a Clinton administration.But polls can be wrong (case in point: Brexit). It's possible that the market's strength has little to do with theelection. So perhaps a better question to ask is: Do strong stock markets predict elections?

It appears at this point that the stock market's vote is aligned with the polls. Since 1928, a stock marketincrease over the three months leading up to the November presidential election has an 82% success rate atpredicting the winner [Figure 2]. In 18 of the 22 election years going back to 1928, the gain or loss in the stockmarket over August, September, and October accurately predicted which party won. For years in which theelection followed a two-term president (1940, 1944, 1960, 1988, 2000, and 2008), the track record has beenperfect, but granted, this covers a limited number of occurrences.

The exceptions to the "vote of the stock market" are 1932, 1956, 1968, and 1980, when the challenger wondespite stock gains, or when the incumbent won despite a stock market decline over the period. No marketindicator is perfect for every election; however, the stock market's vote has been fairly predictive over the yearsand suggests that the stock market and the polls are in agreement, at least for now.

The performance of the U.S. economy, and specifically income growth, is also a good predictor of electionoutcomes, as we noted in the . This indicator is suggesting a slightMidyear Outlook 2016: A Vote of Confidenceedge for the Democrats.

ARE POLITICALLY SENSITIVE GROUPS AND POLLS ALIGNED?

The broad market's performance may be telling us something about the November election, but what aboutsome of the most politically sensitive industries? If the market was pricing in a Clinton victory, certainindustries where her platform may not be as supportive would be expected to lag the market (and vice versa).

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 We looked at the relative performance of several politically sensitive industry groups to see if they were alignedwith a market-based version of a presidential election poll to determine if their performance might be tellingus something about the potential outcome in November.

Financials

Clinton is likely to be much tougher on bank regulation that Trump. She has supported tough financialregulation under the Dodd-Frank law, while Trump has indicated his interest in dismantling the law. Clintonhas indicated that she would be willing to break up financial institutions deemed "too big to fail." She wouldpropose a risk fee for big banks and financial institutions based on their size and their risk of contributing toanother financial crisis. Both Clinton and Trump have included reinstating Glass-Steagall as part of theirplatforms, which prohibits commercial banks from engaging in investment banking.

What is the market saying? As shown in Figure 3, from mid-May (when the two nominees became clear)through the end of July, the odds of a Clinton victory tracked the (inverse) relative performance of bank andcapital markets stocks. We believe prospects of a continued tough regulatory environment, including theanti-Wall Street rhetoric (even if Glass-Steagall faces very long odds of being reinstated), played a role in therelative weakness of these groups during that time.

But during the last couple of weeks, as Clinton's odds of winning increased in the polls, financial stocks didwell. Gains in these stocks in August likely reflected the move in interest rates, from 1.46% on the 10-yearTreasury at the end of July to just shy of 1.60% late last week, which may have overwhelmed politics. Alignment between market and polls: Good.

Healthcare

Clinton is a strong defender of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and arguably one of the early architects of someof the law's basic concepts. Trump, on the other hand, has stated his interest in repealing it, a key pillar of theRepublican platform. Both candidates have expressed support for the government (Medicare) to negotiatedrug prices directly to help bring down prescription drug costs, though Clinton has more credibility on thisissue than Trump.

What is the market saying? The ACA means more insured patients, so the healthcare facilities andmanaged care groups should have done well recently as Clinton's odds of winning have increased. But asshown in Figure 4, they really haven't, especially facilities (remember the relative performance lines areinverted). Some of this inconsistency, we believe, reflects the profitability challenges for certain healthcareinstitutions under the ACA. Pharmaceutical stock relative performance has only begun following its expectedpath (inverse correlation to Clinton's odds) over the past month. The weakness of this link, besides variouscompany specific issues, may be due to the market's expectation that, even in a Democratic administration, itis unlikely that major drug reforms will get through Congress. Alignment between market and polls:Mixed.

Energy

The candidates have very different approaches to energy policy. Clinton wants to reduce American oilconsumption by a third through cleaner fuels and more efficient cars, boilers, ships, and trucks. Trump, on theother hand, has talked about reducing regulations for drilling, approving the Keystone XL pipeline, and putone of the pioneers of the oil and gas shale revolution on his economic advisory council.

What is the market saying? Drawing comparisons between energy and policy is tricky because of the manymacroeconomic factors that drive oil and the tight relationship between oil prices and oil stocks. Still, oil andgas exploration and production stocks did underperform from mid-May through the end of July as Clinton'sodds improved [Figure 5]. The outperformance of energy stocks in August, despite Clinton's improving odds,has been driven more by anticipation of an OPEC production agreement next month than politics. Alignmentbetween market and polls: Fairly close until recently.

What About Infrastructure?

Both candidates have supported infrastructure spending, such as fixing roads and bridges, to help stimulatethe economy and increase employment. In what has been more of a Democratic position in recent years,Trump has proposed to spend double Clinton's $275 billion over the next five years. All things considered, thecandidates have not differentiated themselves much on this issue (similar to international trade, which bothwould like to restrict to varying degrees). Not surprisingly, construction materials stocks did quite well earlythis summer as Trump's plans became clearer.

CONCLUSION

The broad market seems to be in alignment with the polls in suggesting a Clinton victory in November is likely,although anything can happen. The lack of market volatility in recent months may reflect the market'spreference for less uncertainty under Clinton's leadership, while financials stocks, which would be expected todo better under Trump, have generally struggled as Clinton's odds of victory have risen. The messages from

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 other politically sensitive groups including healthcare and energy are more mixed. We will continue to watchfor signals from the market as to what may happen in November, as we can all agree, regardless of one'spolitical leanings, that this election will have investment implications.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specificadvice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate foryou, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is noguarantee of future results.

The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted and there can be noguarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

Investing in stock includes numerous specific risks including: the fluctuation of dividend, loss of principal,and potential liquidity of the investment in a falling market.

Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadlyacross many sectors and companies.

All investing involves risk including loss of principal.

INDEX DESCRIPTIONS

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measureperformance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocksrepresenting all major industries.

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investmentadvisor, please note that LPL Financial is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect tosuch entity.

Not FDIC or NCUA/NCUSIF Insured | No Bank or Credit Union Guarantee | May Lose Value | NotGuaranteed by Any Government Agency | Not a Bank/Credit Union Deposit8

Tracking #1-528429 (Exp. 08/17)

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The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specificadvice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate foryou, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is noguarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

Mark Henderson RFC, CFP is a Registered Representative with and Securities are offered through LPLFinancial, member FINRA/SIPC. Insurance products offered through LPL Financial or its licensed affiliates.

Hamburg Financial Group is not a registered Broker/Dealer and is not affiliated with LPL Financial

Not FDIC/NCUA InsuredNot Bank/Credit Union

GuaranteedMay Lose Value

Not Insured by any Federal Government Agency Not a Bank Deposit

 

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