Young people’s political participation: a comparative overview across Europe LLAKES Research...

Young people’s political participation: a comparative overview across Europe

LLAKES Research Conference 2015 ‘The crisis for contemporary youth’

Gema M. García AlbaceteUniversidad Carlos III de [email protected]

Research questions:

1) What’s distinctive of young people’s political participation at the beginning of the twenty-first century?

Apathy/cynicism vs. critical citizens

2) And if they participate differently, why?

Main conclusions:

YP participate less – and no longer participate more than adults in protest activities

Lower participation can be explained by a combination of cohort and life cycle effects in most countries

The transition to adulthood is a critical period …

… and thus the structural conditions in which young people come to age

Two tools to compare: participation and age across countries, life stages and time

Young people’s political participation in Europe

A new political generation?

- attitudes

- attitudes behavior

Structural conditions:

- the economic crisis

What’s distinctive of young people’s political participation at the beginning of the twenty-first century?

Limitations available research

• Emphasis in single modes of participation

• Lack of cross-national studies• Lack of longitudinal studies• Absence of comparisons to adults• Ambiguous usage of the concept

«age»

Propositions

1. Political participation measurement:Development of cross-national

and longitudinally valid instrument to measure political participationInstitutional and non-institutional participation

Equivalent measures of political participationIntroduction

Young people’s political participationExplanationsConclusions


Limitations available research

• Emphasis in single modes of participation

• Lack of cross-national studies• Lack of longitudinal studies• Absence of comparisons to adults• Ambiguous usage of the concept

«age»

Propositions

1. Political participation measurement:Development of cross-national

and longitudinally valid instrument to measure political participationInstitutional and non-institutional participation

2. What is “being young”?Development of meaningful

demarcation lines between youth and adulthood Major markers of the transition to adulthood and their changes across time, countries and gender

IntroductionYoung people’s political participation

ExplanationsConclusions

Youth and adulthood life stages




Results



Results

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Young Adult Young Adult Young Adult

Young Adult Young Adult

Austria Belgium Switzerland Germany Denmark

Spain Finland France United Kingdom Greece

Ireland Italy Luxembourg The Netherlands Norway

Portugal Sweden

Institu

tion

al pa

rtic

ipa

tio

n

Life stage

Error bars represent 95% CI

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5





Ireland Italy Luxembourg The Netherlands Norway

Portugal Sweden

Non

-in

stitu

tio

na

l pa

rtic

ipation

Life stage


0.00.10.20.30.40.5

0.00.10.20.30.40.5

0.00.10.20.30.40.5

0.00.10.20.30.40.5

0.00.10.20.30.40.5

0.00.10.20.30.40.5

0.00.10.20.30.40.5

Young Adult


Austria, 2002 Austria, 2004 Austria, 2006

Switzerland, 2002 Switzerland, 2004 Switzerland, 2006

Germany, 2002 Germany, 2004 Germany, 2006

Finland, 2002 Finland, 2004 Finland, 2006

United Kingdom, 2002 United Kingdom, 2004 United Kingdom, 2006

Italy, 2002 Italy, 2004 The Netherlands, 2002

The Netherlands, 2004 The Netherlands, 2006

Institu

tio

na

l p

art

icip

atio

n

Life stage


0.00.10.20.30.40.5

0.00.10.20.30.40.5

0.00.10.20.30.40.5

0.00.10.20.30.40.5

0.00.10.20.30.40.5

0.00.10.20.30.40.5

0.00.10.20.30.40.5

Young Adult


Austria, 2002 Austria, 2004 Austria, 2006

Switzerland, 2002 Switzerland, 2004 Switzerland, 2006

Germany, 2002 Germany, 2004 Germany, 2006

Finland, 2002 Finland, 2004 Finland, 2006

United Kingdom, 2002 United Kingdom, 2004 United Kingdom, 2006

Italy, 2002 Italy, 2004 The Netherlands, 2002

The Netherlands, 2004 The Netherlands, 2006

No

n-in

stitu

tio

na

l P

art

icip

atio

n

Life stage


Do young people participate less due to distinctive cohort characteristics or due to a delayed and more complicated transition to adulthood?

Age Young people participate less because…

Cohort … of distinctive cohort characteristics given the social and political context in which they were socialized

Generation … they constitute political generations shaped by the concrete political events taking place during their formative years

Life-cycle … of they life cycle stage in which they are

Age and political participationIntroduction

Young people’s political participationExplanations

Conclusions


Age Societal transformations Expectations

Cohort

Education, media Sophisticated critical citizens

Money-driven politics, lack of attention from parties

Politically alienated

Professionalization of political parties

Lack mobilization networks

Life-style politics, welfare state recession, labor market Individualistic

Generation Country-specific events Diverse developments across countries

Political generations and cohortsIntroduction

Young people’s political participationExplanations

Conclusions


Age Societal transformations Expectations Results

Cohort

Education, media Sophisticated critical citizens More continuity than change

Cohort characteristics

Remaining gap to explain









Political generations and cohorts

Interest in politics (1980-2008)

1973197719811985198919931997200120052009

1973197719811985198919931997200120052009

1973197719811985198919931997200120052009

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

Austria Belgium Switzerland Germany Denmark Spain

Finland France United Kingdom Greece Ireland Italy

Luxembourg The Netherlands Norway Portugal Sweden

Ye

ar

Young people's difference in political interest from adults

Political trust: confidence in political parties (1980-2008)

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0




Ye

ar

Young people's difference in confidence in parliament from adults

Marginal effect of being young on institutional and non-institutional participation across levels of political interest in Denmark

-0.1

0.1

0.2

0

Mar

gina

l effe

ct o

f bei

ng y

oung

1 2 3 4

Interest in politics

Institutional participation

-0.1

0.1

0.2

0

Mar

gina

l effe

ct o

f bei

ng y

oung

1 2 3 4


Non-institutional participation



Cohort










Life-cycle Longer transition to adulthood Delay in political «start up»

Life stage





Cohort










Life-cycle Longer transition to adulthood Delay in political «start up»



Changes in the transition to adulthood. Some results

Continuity or change?

Continuity or generational change?

Change:

- Lower levels of interest in politics and weaker relationship to political parties in some countries

- Structural conditions in which young people come to age

Continuity:

- Young people are not reinventing political activism

- Young people are not particularly critical or alienated from the political system

- Their levels and modes of participation are to a larger extent due to their stage in life



The effect of the economic crisis on young people’s political participation in Spain

LLAKES Research Conference 2015 ‘The crisis for contemporary youth’

Gema García- AlbaceteJavier LorenteIrene Martín

Conclusions

- Against our expectations, we find larger changes among those in the age group 25 to 36

- Potential explanations: - Life cycle- More aware of the impact of the crisis- Expectations

Satisfaction with democracy, average marginal effects, age and year, 2006 and 2012

3

4

5

6

7

18 to 25 26 to 35 36 to 45 46 to 55 56 to 65

Age

Germany

3

4

5

6

7

18 to 25 26 to 35 36 to 45 46 to 55 56 to 65

Age

Spain

3

4

5

6

7

18 to 25 26 to 35 36 to 45 46 to 55 56 to 65

Age

Italy

2006 2012

Institutional participation (electoral turnout), average marginal effects, age and year

.4

.6

.8

1

18 to 25 26 to 35 36 to 45 46 to 55 56 to 65

Age

Germany

.4

.6

.8

1

18 to 25 26 to 35 36 to 45 46 to 55 56 to 65

Age

Spain

.4

.6

.8

1

18 to 25 26 to 35 36 to 45 46 to 55 56 to 65

Age

Italy

2006 2012

.2

.3

.4

.5

18 to 25 26 to 35 36 to 45 46 to 55 56 to 65

Age

Germany

.2

.3

.4

.5

18 to 25 26 to 35 36 to 45 46 to 55 56 to 65

Age

Spain

.2

.3

.4

.5

18 to 25 26 to 35 36 to 45 46 to 55 56 to 65

Age

Italy

2006 2012

Non-institutional participation, average marginal effects, age and year

Trust in political parties across age and over time (2002-2011)

Conclusions- Against our expectations, we find larger changes among those

in the age group 25 to 36


- In general, change seems positive, disaffection results in protest

- However, social inequalities (unemployment) are resulting in political inequalities

- New gap among young people according to their occupational status: apathy vs. critical citizens

Non-institutional participation, contrast unemployed across age and over time, Spain

-.5

0

.5

1

18-25 26 to 35 36 to 45 46- 55 56-6518 to 25 26 to 35 36 to 45 46 to 55 56 to 65

2006 2012

Cont

rast

s of

Pr(

Non

-insti

tutio

nal p

artic

ipati

on)

Age

Spain

-.5

0

.5

1

18-25 26 to 35 36 to 45 46 to 55 56-6518 to 25 26 to 35 36 to 45 46 to 55 56 to 65

2004 2012

Cont

rast

s of P

r(N

on-in

stitu

tiona

l par

ticip

ation

)

Age

Italy

Non-institutional participation, contrast unemployed across age and over time, Italy

-.5

0

.5

18 to 25 26 to 35 36 to 45 46 to 55 56 to 6518 to 25 26 to 35 36 to 45 46 to 55 56 to 65

Dissatisfied Satisfied

Co

ntr

asts

of

Pro

test

Age

Spain - 2012

Non-institutional participation, contrast unemployed across age by satisfaction, Spain

Conclusions- Against our expectations, we find larger changes among those

in the age group 25 to 36


- In general, change seems positive, disaffection results in protest

- However, social inequalities (unemployment) are resulting in political inequalities

- New gap among young people according to their occupational status: apathy vs. critical citizens

- Relevance of the political supply: comparison between Italy and Spain, or changes in Spain 2012-2015

Final note:

Young people changing the political parties system?

2011

2015

Final note:

Young people changing the political parties system?

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Total0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Vote intention + support CIS3080 (april 2015)

PP PSOE IU Podemos Ciudadanos Ciudadanos

Thank you for your attention!

Participation in demonstrations across age and over time (2002-2011)




-.2

-.1

0.1

.2

Europe Austria Belgium Germany

-.2

-.1

0.1

.2

Denmark Spain Finland France

-.2

-.1

0.1

.2

United Kingdom Greece Ireland

0 1 2 3 4 5

Italy

-.2

-.1

0.1

.2

0 1 2 3 4 5

TheNetherlands

0 1 2 3 4 5

Portugal

0 1 2 3 4 5

Sweden

Dashed lines give 95% confidence interval

Transition to adulthood as a process: Number of events completed

Marginal effects of being young on institutional political participation as respondents move forward in the transition to adulthood, 2002

1. Direct positive effect2. No effect3. Short term disruptive

effect and long term positive effect

4. Differences across gender

Transition to adulthood and institutional participation:

-.05

0

.05

.1

.15

Mar

gin

al e

ffec

t o

f w

ork

on

inst

itutio

nal p

art

icip

atio

n

20 30 40 50 60Age

Dashed lines give 95% confidence interval.

Austria








-.04

-.02

0

.02

.04

.06

Mar

gin

al e

ffec

t o

f w

ork

on

inst

itutio

nal p

art

icip

atio

n

20 30 40 50 60Age


Netherlands








-.05

0

.05

.1

Mar

gin

al e

ffec

t o

f w

ork

on

inst

itutio

nal p

art

icip

atio

n

20 30 40 50 60Age


Germany




Further research

Continuity or generational change?

Only life- cycle effects:- Belgium- Denmark- Ireland- Portugal- Sweden

Life-cycle and cohort effects:- Austria- Finland- Germany- Italy- France- Greece - Spain- Norway

Exceptions:- United Kingdom- The Netherlands



0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

0

.1

.2

.3

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0

.1

.2

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Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Norway

Portugal Sweden

Inst

itutio

nal p

art

icip

atio

n

Life stage




Results

43 /

Institutional participation and age in seven European countries, 1974 and 2002

44 /

Non- institutional participation and age in seven European countries, 1974 and 2002

45 /

Woman

Woman work

Man

Man work

Woman

Woman work

Man

Man work

Woman

Woman work

Man

Man work

.1 .2 .3 .4

.1 .2 .3 .4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4




95% CI Simulated expected values

Institutional participation: Predicted values

46 /

.2

.25

.3

.35

No Sí No Sí

Adulto Joven

Hombre Mujer

Line

ar P

redi

ction

Tener hijos

47 /

-.2

0

.2

.4

0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5

Adulto Joven

Hombre Mujer

Line

ar P

redi

ction

Número de eventos completados en la transición a la vida adulta

48 /

.4

.6

.8

1

1.2

1.4

No job 1 2-3 3-5 5-10 >10

Austria

.4

.6

.8

1

1.2

1.4

No job 1 2-3 3-5 5-10 >10

Belgium

.4

.6

.8

1

1.2

1.4

No job 1 2-3 3-5 5-10 >10

Switzerland

.4

.6

.8

1

1.2

1.4

No job 1 2-3 3-5 5-10 >10

Germany

.4

.6

.8

1

1.21.4

No job 1 2-3 3-5 5-10 >10

Denmark

.4

.6

.8

1

1.21.4

No job 1 2-3 3-5 5-10 >10

Spain

.4

.6

.8

1

1.21.4

No job 1 2-3 3-5 5-10 >10

Finland

.4

.6

.8

1

1.21.4

No job 1 2-3 3-5 5-10 >10

France

.4

.6

.8

11.2

1.4

No job 1 2-3 3-5 5-10 >10

United Kingdom

.4

.6

.8

11.2

1.4

No job 1 2-3 3-5 5-10 >10

Ireland

.4

.6

.8

11.2

1.4

No job 1 2-3 3-5 5-10 >10

TheNetherlands

.4

.6

.8

11.2

1.4

No job 1 2-3 3-5 5-10 >10

Norway

.4

.6

.81

1.2

1.4

No job 1 2-3 3-5 5-10 >10

Portugal

.4

.6

.81

1.2

1.4

No job 1 2-3 3-5 5-10 >10

Sweden

49 /

.5

1

1.5

2

No child 1 2-3 3-5 5-10 >10

Austria

.5

1

1.5

2

No child 1 2-3 3-5 5-10 >10

Belgium

.5

1

1.5

2

No child 1 2-3 3-5 5-10 >10

Switzerland

.5

1

1.5

2

No child 1 2-3 3-5 5-10 >10

Germany

.5

1

1.5

2

No child 1 2-3 3-5 5-10 >10

Denmark

.5

1

1.5

2

No child 1 2-3 3-5 5-10 >10

Spain

.5

1

1.5

2

No child 1 2-3 3-5 5-10 >10

Finland

.5

1

1.5

2

No child 1 2-3 3-5 5-10 >10

France

.5

1

1.5

2

No child 1 2-3 3-5 5-10 >10

United Kingdom

.5

1

1.5

2

No child 1 2-3 3-5 5-10 >10

Ireland

.5

1

1.5

2

No child 1 2-3 3-5 5-10 >10

TheNetherlands

.5

1

1.5

2

No child 1 2-3 3-5 5-10 >10

Norway

.5

1

1.5

2

No child 1 2-3 3-5 5-10 >10

Portugal

.5

1

1.5

2

No child 1 2-3 3-5 5-10 >10

Sweden

male female

Cambio en actitudes políticas y participación en función de la edad

3

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4

LOW

ES

S C

onfia

nza

en p

artid

os p

olíti

cos

20 40 60 80 100Edad

20022007

2011

Los cambios son más pronunciados entre los jóvenes, pero no entre los más jóvenes.

Confirmación de que los cambios son mayores para el grupo de 25-36 años

-.1

0

.1

.2

.3

.4

LOW

ES

S F

irma

de p

etic

ione

s

20 40 60 80 100Edad

20022007

2011

Y, ¿los jóvenes desempleados?

Nueva brecha entre jóvenes empleados y no desempleados, que no surge para otros grupos de edad:

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

18-25 26-35 36-45 46-55 56-65

18-25 26-35 36-45 46-55 56-65

2002 2007

2011a

Other situations Unemployed

Line

ar P

redi

ction

. Tru

st in

pol

itica

l par

ties

Age groups

.2

.4

.6

.8

18-25 26-35 36-45 46-55 56-6518-25 26-35 36-45 46-55 56-65

2007 2011b

Other situations Unemployed

Pr(P

arty

iden

tifica

tion)

Age groups

Identificación partidista

Encontramos esta nueva brecha en actitudes y comportamientos políticos relacionados con partidos políticos y el proceso electoral: confianza en los partidos, identificación partidista, voto y firma de peticiones.

-0.1

0.1

0.2

0

Ma

rgin

al e

ffect of b

ein

g y

oun

g

1 2 3 4


Institutional participation

-0.1

0.1

0.2

0

Ma

rgin

al e

ffect of b

ein

g y

oun

g

1 2 3 4


Non-institutional participation

Young people’s political participation: a comparative overview across Europe LLAKES Research...

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