YouGov WriteUp, 10.18.11

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THE RISE OF HERMAN CAIN: GOP VOTERS GIVE HIM

A DOUBLE-DIGIT LEAD OVER ROMNEY

This weeks Economist/YouGov Poll results provide no doubt who the GOP favorite

is: businessman Herman Cain has a double-digit lead over former Massachusetts

Governor Mitt Romney. And now Cains popularity with registered voters who say

they will vote in a Republican primary or caucus next year is not only because of

his support from those GOP voters who identify with the Tea Party.

If you had to choose one, which of these individuals would you want

to be the Republican nominee for president in 2012?

Registered voters who are likely

to vote in Republican primary or caucus

All Tea Party followers Non-Tea Party followers

Mitt Romney 21% 19% 22%

Newt Gingrich 11% 11% 10%

Michele Bachmann 4% 2% 6%

Jon Huntsman 3% 0% 6%

Ron Paul 10% 10% 9%

Herman Cain 31% 38% 24%Rick Santorum 3% 4% 2%

Rick Perry 8% 8% 7%Gary Johnson 0% 1% 0%

Other 5% 3% 6%

No preference 6% 4% 8%

Cain leads Romney 31% to 21% among all Republican voters, and by 38% to 19%

among Tea Partiers (who make up nearly half of all Republican voters). He and

Romney are co-frontrunners with the 56% of Republican voters who do not iden-

tify with that group. 24% of non-Tea Party GOP voters favor Cain, 22% Romney.

As for the rest of the field, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Texas Congress-

man Ron Paul and Texas Governor Rick Perry have the support of about one in ten

GOP voters. Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, once a favorite, has

dropped to only 4% support.

Cain may yet have a long way to go to reach Democratic and independent voters.

But Republican voters see him as caring, sharing their values, tough and capable

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enough to do the job. In fact, he does better than Romney does with Republican

voters when it comes to caring about them, and sharing their values.

He is tough enough for

the job of president.

He understands

complex issues.

He shares

my values.

He cares about people

like me.

68%

68%

68%

63%

48%

65%

50%

63%

Herman Cain

Mitt Romney

Please tell us whether you agree or disagree with each of thefollowing statements about these Republican presidential candidates.

(Registered voters who are likely to vote in Republican primary or caucus)

Displaying percent who agree only

But among the public overall, both Cain and Romney are seen mostly negatively.

However, Americans are more likely to see both Republicans as tough enough to

handle the job. Romney scores better than Cain with the public overall when it

comes to understanding the complex problems a President must face, and having

the overall qualifications to be a good president.

Romney is seen as more electable that Cain is. By 40% to 27%, Americans think

the President would defeat Cain. They see a Romney-Obama matchup as more

competitive. But both men would now give President Barack Obama a very close

contest if next Novembers election were being held today. When registered voters

are asked who they would support today, Obama leads Romney by just four points,

and Cain by just three.


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Mitt Romney Herman Cain

45%

41%

8%6%

45%42%

6% 7%

Barack Obama

Republican Candidate

Other

Not sure

If the 2012 presidential election were being held today,and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat,

and the following Republican candidate, would you vote forBarack Obama or the Republican candidate?

(Registered voters only)

WHATS 9-9-9?: MOST HAVE HEARD OF IT, BUT

AMERICANS OPPOSE CAINS PLAN 35% TO 24%

Businessman Herman Cains top economic proposal is his 9-9-9 tax plan: a 9%

federal business tax, a 9% federal payroll tax and a 9% sales tax. Two out of three

respondents in the latest Economist/YouGov Poll have heard of this plan and

more importantly so have 84% of Republican primary voters.

GOP voters and the public overall hold very different opinions of 9-9-9: Repub-

lican voters are twice as likely to favor as oppose it, while the public is negative.

However, many people arent sure quite what to think of it.


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Allrespondents

Republicanprimary voters

24%

15%

35%

26%

50%

13%

21%

16%

Favor

Neither favor, nor oppose

Oppose

Not sure

Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain has proposed replacingthe current U.S. tax code with a 9 percent federal business tax,a 9 percent federal payroll tax, and a 9 percent federal sales tax.

Do you favor or oppose this proposal?

Republican voters are especially concerned about taxes. Nearly half of them say

they pay more than their fair share of taxes, something just a third of Democratic

voters say. Democratic voters are more likely to believe they pay their fair share of

taxes.

Republicanprimary voters

Democraticprimary voters

46% 45%

3%6%

33%

54%

4%

9%

More than fair share

About right

Less than fair share

I don't file taxes

Do you feel you pay more than your fair share infederal income taxes, less than your fair share,

or is the amount you pay about right?


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And Republican voters are much more likely to think that the tax burden falls too

heavily on wealthier Americans. Nearly a third of them say the wealthy pay more

than their fair share of taxes. Thats not because GOP voters think of themselves as

wealthy: only 2% of Republican voters describe themselves that way.

AMERICANS LIKE OBAMAS JOBS PROPOSALS: BUT

ONLY 32% THINK HIS PLAN WILL CREATE MANY

JOBS

The components of President Barack Obamas jobs plan meet with general approval

and there even is bi-partisan support for some of the ideas at least until thepublic is told that the plan is Obamas. But there remains skepticism in the lat-

est Economist /YouGov Poll that the Presidents proposals will create a significant

number of new jobs.

Only 32% believe the Presidents jobs plan will create a significant number of new

jobs; 39% say it wont. And when Americans look backwards, many dont see the

2009 stimulus package as having helped the economy. Only one in four say it did;

a majority believes it either had no effect or hurt the economy.


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Not sure

Would not create a substantialnumber of new jobs

Would create a substantialnumber of new jobs

29%

39%

32%

The measures just described are a part of President Obama's jobs plan.Taken together, do you think it would create a substantial

number of new jobs in the U.S. or not?

Helped No effect Hurt Not sure

25% 23%

35%

16%

In February 2009, Congress passed President Obama's $787 billioneconomic stimulus bill. Overall, do you think that the

2009 stimulus bill helped or hurt the economy?

The public supports several aspects of the current jobs plan, however. They want

spending for highways and transit, for school construction, for hiring teachers,

police and firefighters. They would give tax credits to businesses for hiring the long-

term unemployed, and for hiring disabled military veterans. Smaller pluralities

would extend unemployment benefits and extend the Social Security tax cut for


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workers. Nearly half favor raising revenues with a 5.6% tax hike for those whose

incomes exceed $1 million.

Do you favor or oppose the following measures to stimulate theeconomy and create jobs? (Asked of half of respondents)

Favor Oppose Not sure

Extending and expanding the Social Security

payroll tax cut for workers 41% 22% 37%

Reducing the Social Security taxes paidby businesses on the first $5 million

in wages paid in 2012 24% 40% 35%

Funding highways, transit, rail

and aviation improvements 52% 21% 26%

Funding school construction 48% 27% 24%

Extending unemployment benefits 41% 32% 24%

Offering tax credits for businesses thathire the long-term unemployed 54% 20% 24%

Providing aid to local governments

to save and create jobs for teachers,

police and firefighters 52% 26% 20%

Funding job creation measures through a 5.6%

surtax on annual incomes over $1 million 49% 27% 22%

Offering tax credits for businesses hiring military

veterans with service-related disabilities whohave been unemployed more than six months 63% 13% 24%

Extending tax provisions allowing companies to more

quickly write off the cost of new equipment 41% 22% 37%

Half the sample was asked for their opinion on these items without being told that

they were part of the Presidents jobs bill. The other half was told these were pieces

of the Presidents bill. Overall support did not change much, but on some items

where the support came from did. For example, a majority of Republicans favored

extending tax provisions allowing businesses to write off the cost of new equipment

more quickly in principle; GOP support was ten points lower among the half sample

told this was what the Presidents plan did. At the same time, Democratic support

rose 12 points.


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MAIN STREET SEES OCCUPY WALL STREET

FAVORABLY OWS FARES BETTER THAN THE

TEA PARTY

The Occupy Wall Street movement continues to gather attention and increas-

ingly positive assessments from the public. In this weeks Economist/YouGov Poll

31% say they have heard a great deal about OWS, up ten points in one week. More

than eight in ten have heard something, nearly as many as those who have heard

something about the more than one year old Tea Party movement.

October 811, 2011 October 1518, 2011

21%

34%

22% 23%

31% 31%

19% 18%

A great deal

A fair amount

Not much

Nothing at all

How much have you heard or read about the protest movementknown as the Occupy Wall Street movement?

More important, Americans seem to like the Occupy Wall Street movement. By

43% to 30%, they support its goals. Even among those with incomes above $100,000,

more say they support the movements goals than oppose them.

OWS fares much better in public esteem than does the Tea Party. Opinion of the

Tea Party is slightly more negative than positive.


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The Tea Party movement The Occupy Wall Street movement

35%

15%

39%

11%

43%

16%

30%

11%

SupportNeither support, nor oppose

Oppose

Not sure

Generally speaking, do you support or oppose the goals of...

(Asked if respondent is aware of these movements)

Occupy Wall Street identifiers are from all age groups and all educational and in-

come levels. They are more likely to be Democrats, and unlike the public over-

all they are hopeful about government spending and the Presidents jobs bills. By

more than three to one, they favor government spending to create jobs and stimulate

the economy. By more than two to one, they believe the Presidents jobs bill would

create a significant number of new jobs.In addition, OWS identifiers are engaged in the 2012 election. Just as many OWS

identifiers as Tea Partiers claim to be paying very close attention to the campaign,

making both groups far more attentive than the public overall.


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Allrespondents

Tea Partyfollowers

Occupy WallStreet followers

27%

33%

24%

16%

48%

40%

11%

0%

47%

33%

16%

4%

Very closely

Somewhat closely

Not too closelyNot at all

How closely have you been following news aboutthe 2012 presidential election campaign?

HARD TIMES: 72% SAY COUNTRY IS ON THE WRONG

TRACK, PRESIDENT AND CONGRESS AT OR NEAR

RECORD LOWS IN APPROVAL

These are not good times for Americans. Americans overwhelmingly think thingsare off on the wrong track, and that concern also is bringing down their opinion of

the person in charge President Barack Obama. The Presidents approval ratings

is just one point above the lowest ever recorded for him inEconomist/YouGov Polls.

Just 38% approve of his handling of his job, while 53% disapprove.


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PercentofRespondents

"Do you approve or disapprove of the wayBarack Obama is handling his job as President?"

Obama Approval

Approve: 38%

Disapprove: 53%

q

q

1

0

20

30

40

50

60

7

0

2009 2010 2011

There are other low marks for the President this week. Just 43% believe that he

mostly says what he really believes; 57% - close to the highest figure ever think

he panders and says mostly what he thinks people want to hear.

Overall judgments of how things are going in the country are at a record low. 72%

believe things are seriously off on the wrong track, near the highest level in the

Obama Presidency.


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Direction of Country

PercentofRespondents

"Would you say things in this country today aregenerally headed in the right direction

or off on the wrong track?"

q

q

Right: 14%

Wrong: 72%

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2009 2010 2011

As for Congress, its approval rating this week ties its all-tie low in this poll. Only

7% approve of how Congress is handling its job. Republicans feel only marginally

better: 16% of them approve. Just 4% of independents do. 77% of independents

disapprove.

Perce

ntofRespondents

"Do you approve or disapprove of the waythat the United States Congress is handling its job?"

Congress Approval

Approve: 7%

Disapprove: 68%

q

q

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2009 2010 2011


YouGov WriteUp, 10.18.11

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