You have been framed! Effects of risk communication on information need.
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Transcript of You have been framed! Effects of risk communication on information need.
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You have been framed!
Effects of framing flood risks on people’s information need
Dr. Teun Terpstra, HKV [email protected]
FloodRisk2012, November 22, Rotterdam
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Set-up of presentation
• Introduction– Background (Rotterdam “buitendijks”)– Framing in risk communication– Information need and its predictors
• Hypotheses
• Questionnaire
• Results (mediation analyses)
• Implications
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Rotterdam
Old docksCentrally locatedNo longer used for shipping
Dordrecht
Outside embanked areaVulnerable to flooding
Attractive for living working and leisure Hamburg
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Policy questionHow do future inhabitants perceive the dual character of
these areas?
Research question1. How does risk communication influence people’s risk
perceptions and their information needs? 2. What is the effect of risk framing?
Knowledge for Climate research project
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Framing in communication refers to • an (un)intented focus• on certain aspects of a situation or issue• through systematic use of language and symbols• which influence our thoughts, mental representations,
and interpretations• resulting in a simplification of reality
Framing
Frames• can be misleading (advertising, politics)• help us to recognize and understand each other without
explaining continously what we are trying to say
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Hamburger• 85% lean• 15% fat
Netherlands• Water safety• Flood risk
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Focus on “Information need”
• See:– Griffin et al. (1999, 2004, 2008), – Ter Huurne (2008, 2009)
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Focus on “Information need”
Information need• predictor of information
seeking behaviour (active)
• reflects people’s openness to further communication (passive)
Cognitive responses• Risk perception• Trust in risk
authorities
Affective responses• Positive affect • Negative affect
Risk CommunicationFramesFear appeal
See:• Griffin et al. (1999, 2004, 2008), • Ter Huurne (2008, 2009)
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Experimental questionnaire: design
Emphasis
Control group (bench mark) No informationn=200
Frames:
• During high water levels streets can be covered with water.
• On average, such high water levels occur once in 10 years.
1. Climate change n=400
2. Safetyn=400
3. Amenitiesn=400
Emphasis Fear appeal
Control group (bench mark) No informationn=200
Low
Frames:
• During high water levels streets can be covered with water.
• On average, such high water levels occur once in 10 years.
1. Climate change n=400
Maximum
2. Safetyn=400
Reduced (reassurance)
3. Amenitiesn=400
Reduced (distraction)
Emphasis Fear appeal H1 H2 H3
Control group (bench mark) No informationn=200
Low x
Frames:
• During high water levels streets can be covered with water.
• On average, such high water levels occur once in 10 years.
Basic fear appeal
1. Climate change
n=400
Maximum x y z
2. Safetyn=400
Reduced (reassurance)
x y
3. Amenitiesn=400
Reduced (distraction)
x z
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Example: Climate change frame (max fear appeal)
Floods are part of life and may cause substantial damage. In addition, the climate is changing, which will increase river discharges and sea level rise. According to experts, the Netherlands is insufficiently protected against the consequences of climate change. As a result, flood risk in residential areas in unprotected floodplains will increase in future.
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Questionnaire & Sample
• Questionnaire variables 1-7 rating scales
– Risk perception (2 items)– Trust in flood risk management (5 items)– Negative affect (4 items)– Positive affect (4 items)– Information need (5 items)
• TNS NIPO, Sample: N = 1457– Frames: N > 400– Control group: N>200– Response rate 69%
• Analysis– SPSS, Preacher & Hayes
mediation procedure
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1 2 3 4 5Positive affect. The idea of living in an unprotected neighborhood …… gives me a happy feeling. 0.971… gives me a cheerful feeling. 0.949… gives me a good feeling. 0.934… gives me a pleasant feeling. 0.932Information need. To what extent would you need information about …… the measures you could take to prevent flood damage to your possessions? 0.915…. about the possibilities for evacuation in case of a flood threat? 0.908… how serious flood damage could be? 0.906… who is responsible for flood damage to your possessions? 0.897… the chance of flooding in the years ahead? 0.87Trust in flood management. To what extent do you trust that authorities will be able to… give timely warnings to citizens in unprotected neighborhoods, so they can move their car or take other protective measures?
0.909
… make accurate predictions about flood levels in unprotected neighborhoods? 0.888… design and plan unprotected neighborhoods so that there will little are no risk of flood damage to homes and possessions of dwellers?
0.875
… manage the flood risks in unprotected neighborhoods in the next 20 years? 0.861… ensure that it will be safe for you (and your family) to live in an unprotected neighborhood?
0.853
Negative affect. The idea of living in an unprotected neighborhood …… gives me a restless feeling. 0.947… gives me a worried feeling. 0.925… gives me an unsafe feeling. 0.91… gives me an anxious feeling. 0.904Risk perceptionsDue to climate change and flood risks housing prices in unprotected areas will decrease in the future
0.852
Due to climate change flood frequency and flood levels in unprotected city harbors will increase
0.838
Eigen value 7.93 3.94 2.11 1.63 0.98Cronbach alpha 0.96 0.94 0.93 0.94 0.64
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1 2 3 4 5Positive affect. The idea of living in an unprotected neighborhood …… gives me a happy feeling. 0.971… gives me a cheerful feeling. 0.949… gives me a good feeling. 0.934… gives me a pleasant feeling. 0.932Information need. To what extent would you need information about …… the measures you could take to prevent flood damage to your possessions? 0.915…. about the possibilities for evacuation in case of a flood threat? 0.908… how serious flood damage could be? 0.906… who is responsible for flood damage to your possessions? 0.897… the chance of flooding in the years ahead? 0.87Trust in flood management. To what extent do you trust that authorities will be able to… give timely warnings to citizens in unprotected neighborhoods, so they can move their car or take other protective measures?
0.909
… make accurate predictions about flood levels in unprotected neighborhoods? 0.888… design and plan unprotected neighborhoods so that there will little are no risk of flood damage to homes and possessions of dwellers?
0.875
… manage the flood risks in unprotected neighborhoods in the next 20 years? 0.861… ensure that it will be safe for you (and your family) to live in an unprotected neighborhood?
0.853
Negative affect. The idea of living in an unprotected neighborhood …… gives me a restless feeling. 0.947… gives me a worried feeling. 0.925… gives me an unsafe feeling. 0.91… gives me an anxious feeling. 0.904Risk perceptionsDue to climate change and flood risks housing prices in unprotected areas will decrease in the future
0.852
Due to climate change flood frequency and flood levels in unprotected city harbors will increase
0.838
Eigen value 7.93 3.94 2.11 1.63 0.98Cronbach alpha 0.96 0.94 0.93 0.94 0.64
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1 2 3 4 5Positive affect. The idea of living in an unprotected neighborhood …… gives me a happy feeling. 0.971… gives me a cheerful feeling. 0.949… gives me a good feeling. 0.934… gives me a pleasant feeling. 0.932Information need. To what extent would you need information about …… the measures you could take to prevent flood damage to your possessions? 0.915…. about the possibilities for evacuation in case of a flood threat? 0.908… how serious flood damage could be? 0.906… who is responsible for flood damage to your possessions? 0.897… the chance of flooding in the years ahead? 0.87Trust in flood management. To what extent do you trust that authorities will be able to… give timely warnings to citizens in unprotected neighborhoods, so they can move their car or take other protective measures?
0.909
… make accurate predictions about flood levels in unprotected neighborhoods? 0.888… design and plan unprotected neighborhoods so that there will little are no risk of flood damage to homes and possessions of dwellers?
0.875
… manage the flood risks in unprotected neighborhoods in the next 20 years? 0.861… ensure that it will be safe for you (and your family) to live in an unprotected neighborhood?
0.853
Negative affect. The idea of living in an unprotected neighborhood …… gives me a restless feeling. 0.947… gives me a worried feeling. 0.925… gives me an unsafe feeling. 0.91… gives me an anxious feeling. 0.904Risk perceptionsDue to climate change and flood risks housing prices in unprotected areas will decrease in the future
0.852
Due to climate change flood frequency and flood levels in unprotected city harbors will increase
0.838
Eigen value 7.93 3.94 2.11 1.63 0.98Cronbach alpha 0.96 0.94 0.93 0.94 0.64
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1 2 3 4 5Positive affect. The idea of living in an unprotected neighborhood …… gives me a happy feeling. 0.971… gives me a cheerful feeling. 0.949… gives me a good feeling. 0.934… gives me a pleasant feeling. 0.932Information need. To what extent would you need information about …… the measures you could take to prevent flood damage to your possessions? 0.915…. about the possibilities for evacuation in case of a flood threat? 0.908… how serious flood damage could be? 0.906… who is responsible for flood damage to your possessions? 0.897… the chance of flooding in the years ahead? 0.87Trust in flood management. To what extent do you trust that authorities will be able to… give timely warnings to citizens in unprotected neighborhoods, so they can move their car or take other protective measures?
0.909
… make accurate predictions about flood levels in unprotected neighborhoods? 0.888… design and plan unprotected neighborhoods so that there will little are no risk of flood damage to homes and possessions of dwellers?
0.875
… manage the flood risks in unprotected neighborhoods in the next 20 years? 0.861… ensure that it will be safe for you (and your family) to live in an unprotected neighborhood?
0.853
Negative affect. The idea of living in an unprotected neighborhood …… gives me a restless feeling. 0.947… gives me a worried feeling. 0.925… gives me an unsafe feeling. 0.91… gives me an anxious feeling. 0.904Risk perceptionsDue to climate change and flood risks housing prices in unprotected areas will decrease in the future
0.852
Due to climate change flood frequency and flood levels in unprotected city harbors will increase
0.838
Eigen value 7.93 3.94 2.11 1.63 0.98Cronbach alpha 0.96 0.94 0.93 0.94 0.64
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1 2 3 4 5Positive affect. The idea of living in an unprotected neighborhood …… gives me a happy feeling. 0.971… gives me a cheerful feeling. 0.949… gives me a good feeling. 0.934… gives me a pleasant feeling. 0.932Information need. To what extent would you need information about …… the measures you could take to prevent flood damage to your possessions? 0.915…. about the possibilities for evacuation in case of a flood threat? 0.908… how serious flood damage could be? 0.906… who is responsible for flood damage to your possessions? 0.897… the chance of flooding in the years ahead? 0.87Trust in flood management. To what extent do you trust that authorities will be able to… give timely warnings to citizens in unprotected neighborhoods, so they can move their car or take other protective measures?
0.909
… make accurate predictions about flood levels in unprotected neighborhoods? 0.888… design and plan unprotected neighborhoods so that there will little are no risk of flood damage to homes and possessions of dwellers?
0.875
… manage the flood risks in unprotected neighborhoods in the next 20 years? 0.861… ensure that it will be safe for you (and your family) to live in an unprotected neighborhood?
0.853
Negative affect. The idea of living in an unprotected neighborhood …… gives me a restless feeling. 0.947… gives me a worried feeling. 0.925… gives me an unsafe feeling. 0.91… gives me an anxious feeling. 0.904Risk perceptionsDue to climate change and flood risks housing prices in unprotected areas will decrease in the future
0.852
Due to climate change flood frequency and flood levels in unprotected city harbors will increase
0.838
Eigen value 7.93 3.94 2.11 1.63 0.98Cronbach alpha 0.96 0.94 0.93 0.94 0.64
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1 2 3 4 5Positive affect. The idea of living in an unprotected neighborhood …… gives me a happy feeling. 0.971… gives me a cheerful feeling. 0.949… gives me a good feeling. 0.934… gives me a pleasant feeling. 0.932Information need. To what extent would you need information about …… the measures you could take to prevent flood damage to your possessions? 0.915…. about the possibilities for evacuation in case of a flood threat? 0.908… how serious flood damage could be? 0.906… who is responsible for flood damage to your possessions? 0.897… the chance of flooding in the years ahead? 0.87Trust in flood management. To what extent do you trust that authorities will be able to… give timely warnings to citizens in unprotected neighborhoods, so they can move their car or take other protective measures?
0.909
… make accurate predictions about flood levels in unprotected neighborhoods? 0.888… design and plan unprotected neighborhoods so that there will little are no risk of flood damage to homes and possessions of dwellers?
0.875
… manage the flood risks in unprotected neighborhoods in the next 20 years? 0.861… ensure that it will be safe for you (and your family) to live in an unprotected neighborhood?
0.853
Negative affect. The idea of living in an unprotected neighborhood …… gives me a restless feeling. 0.947… gives me a worried feeling. 0.925… gives me an unsafe feeling. 0.91… gives me an anxious feeling. 0.904Risk perceptionsDue to climate change and flood risks housing prices in unprotected areas will decrease in the future
0.852
Due to climate change flood frequency and flood levels in unprotected city harbors will increase
0.838
Eigen value 7.93 3.94 2.11 1.63 0.98Cronbach alpha 0.96 0.94 0.93 0.94 0.64
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H1: independent of the frame, risk communication causes fear appeal resulting in higher information need,
Information need
All frames vs control group
+
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Information need
All frames vs control group
Negative affect
Risk perception
a=1.34**
a=0.23*
Positive affect
Perceived Trust
a = -0.57**
a = -0. 73**
b=0.17*
b=0.37**
H1: independent of the frame,risk communication causes fear appeal, resulting in higher information need.
+
Unstandardized regression coefficients
*p<.01, **p<.001
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H2: compared to emphasis on climate change,emphasis on safety reassures people, resulting in lower information need.
Information need
Climate change vs Safety
Negative affect
Risk perceptiona=-0.11*
Positive affect
Perceived Trust
b=0.26**
b=0.35**
_
Unstandardized regression coefficients
*p<.01, **p<.001
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H3: compared to emphasis on climate change,emphasis on amenities distracts attention from the threat, resulting in lower information need
Information need
Climate change vs Amenties
Negative affect
Risk perception
a=-0.21**
a=-0.11*
Positive affect
Perceived Trust
a = 0.26**
b=0.26**
b=0.35**
_
Unstandardized regression coefficients
*p<.01, **p<.001
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Conclusions
• H1: – risk communication increases information need– Effects are mediated by classic fear appeal variables (risk
perception and negative affect)
• H2/3: – Fear appeal is somewhat reduced when focusing on safety
or amenities– Large portion of fear appeal effect remains intact
• Implications:– Theoretical: Trust and Positive affect are influenced by
communication, but do not mediate the framing effects on information need
– Practical: risk communication stimulates citizens’ openness to further risk communication, even when information stresses safety and amenities