You and AI: The Future of Work - Columbia Business School · Human Replacing Machines (AI) vs....
Transcript of You and AI: The Future of Work - Columbia Business School · Human Replacing Machines (AI) vs....
AI is more than machines that can process information faster than humans and store and recall information better than humans
In these areas, robots are actually better than humans but problems have been detected.
Their capabilities depend on the data that they are given.
In some areas which seem to require only modest skills, machines have had difficulties…but there has been some progress.
Human Replacing Machines (AI) vs. Human Assisting Machines (IA)
For the intermediate future, only 30 to 40% of jobs are at threat
Machines may also increase the productivity and effectiveness of humans
The balance of the two will depend in part on the extent to which we increase skills in labour force
AI is likely to reduce demand for labor, especially unskilled labour; IA is likely to increase it
In either case, the size of national pie will be larger – increased productivity allows more output from society’s limited resources
Differing impacts of AI and IA on labour markets
Share of National Income
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27%
11%
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Bo+om 90%
Next 9%
Next 0.9%
Top 0.1%
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Next 9%
Next 0.9%
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Share of Labor, Capital and Rents
62%
21%
17%
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Labor Share
Capital Share
Rents Share
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20%
30%
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Labor Share
Capital Share
Rents Share
Image courtesy of National Archives and Records Administration
It depends on government policies
With the right government policies in place, there can be full employment and workers can share in the fruits of the enhanced growth
With the wrong government policies, unemployment can increase, and workers can be worse off
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US: disconnect between productivity and a typical worker’s compensation, 1948-2017
Hourly compensation Net productivity
Source: EPI analysis of unpublished Total Economy Productivity data from Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Labor Productivity and Costs program, wage data from the BLS Current Employment Statistics, BLS Employment Cost Trends, BLS Consumer Price Index, and Bureau of Economic Analysis National Income and Product Accounts
Europe: less increase in inequality in some countries than in others
Source: World Wealth and Income Database
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France - Top 1% Germany - Top 1% Spain - Top 1% UK - Top 1% France - Bottom 90% Germany - Bottom 90% Spain - Bottom 90% UK - Bottom 90%
The relationship between income inequality and social mobility
Source: Corak (2013); World Bank 2013)
Gini Coefficient of disposable income in 2015 (or latest year) and mid-1980s (when available)
Source: OECD Income Distribution Database.
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MAXIMUM ANNUAL TUITION FEES FOR HOME STUDENTS AT UNDERGRADUATE LEVEL
Policies to increase demand for (unskilled) labour
Improving productivity
Helping restructure economy
Recognizing that important services have to be publicly provided or at least supported
Policies to sustain economy at full employment
Monetary policy focusing on employment as well as inflation
Fiscal policies that don’t suffer from deficit fetishism
Conventional policies may not be enough