ASA 　 　　　08/2013

Lost in the Great East Japan Earthquake and Anxiety about the Future:

An Analysis of 2011 Survey of the Earthquake Damage and Social Consciousness in Sendai City

Yoichi Murase (Rikkyo University, Japan)muraseyo@gmail.com

1.Purpose

2.Data and Methods

3.Results Basic Analysis SEM of Anxiety for Future Life

4.Conclusions

1. Purpose1.1. Research Background

Rising Inequality in many countries. Recession after the Great Earthquake

Do Damage and Anxiety for Future Instability associate with Social Status?

Economic status and social network have effect?

Some disaster studies said damages were large in poor areas.

Ex. Hurricane Katrina in the US

Japan is relatively equal society, social class, racial, and religious conflicts are not large.

99% of people are Japanese.However, Urban – Rural gap is large.

I focused comparing the Sendai and rural area.

Sendai: Largest city in Tohoku District, population One million.

Tertiary Industry City, no large factory area or labor class poor area.

Sendai and most of large cities were

not near the ocean.Population of the Coast area was 0.5% in Sendai.

now 0%.

Not a large Tsunami Damage.

However many people have effect from the disaster.

Damage of property is not small.

1.2.Purpose of this studyWhat is the determinants of

Damage of Property by the EarthquakeAnxiety (Future life, Future Income)

HypothesesEconomic status (economic resource)Social network (relational resource, Social capital)Education (informational resource, Cultural capital)Working in Large Company

… very important in Japan

2.Data and Methods "Citizens' Consciousness Survey on Their Life and

Disaster Prevention in Sendai and Senhoku" by Rikkyo University and Tohoku UniversitySendai in November 2011

Sample size 2100 and 1532 answers (73% response rate) Sendai panel survey in 2012 mail survey for 1532, 977 answersSenhoku area (rural near Sendai) in November 2012. mail survey

Sample size was 2006 and 1341 answers (67% response rate).

Not using research companies. Aided by Rikkyo University Special Focus Fund for Promoting Research (Rikkyo SFR)

We hired 70 students and direct managed the survey

Sendai from Tohoku University

Central District of Sendai

Tsunami area now population 0

3.Results3.1.Basic Analysis of Damage and Anxiety

Table 1. Utility Stop and Damage: Days, JP Yen.2011 Sendai

Electrisity Stop Water Stop Gas Stop

Damage

(Thousand Yen)

Aoba(city central) 4.5 8.2 19.7 1009

Miyagino(old area) 7.0 8.7 17.5 1678

Wakabayashi(old area) 6.0 3.2 19.2 2001

Taihaku(suburb) 5.9 6.7 20.5 785

Izumi(suburb) 5.1 11.4 22.6 1141

Total 5.6 8.2 20.1 1225 Miyagino and Wakabayashi faced to the Pacific Ocean

Table 1. Cont2012 Senhoku

Electrisity Stop Water Stop Gas Stop

Damage

(Thousand Yen)

Rifu(suburb) 6.9 20.9 15.6 1562

Tomiya(suburb) 5.9 15.5 11.4 841

Taiwa(town) 5.1 3.1 1.0 1255

Osato, Ohira etc (rural) 9.2 11.7 1.1 1788

Total 6.7 14.0 8.5 1303

Damage

More than 40% answered less than $1000 US.

20% answered more than $10,000 US.

Largest in old residential area (near the ocean).

Anxeity

in 2011 Sendai 70% answered Yes.

Stronger in 2012 and Senhoku (rural area).

No relation with the areas.

Relational Resource (Social network with influential people)

Closeness with influential people. Important for measuring people’s political power and

background. Old traditional people have more relations. Maybe not a

new urban residents.

3.2.Cause of Anxiety and Damage Structural Equation Model by SPSS AMOS

Final Dependent Variable :Factor of Anxiety … Right sides of Figures

Anxiety on Future Life

Anxiety on Future IncomeDamage Amount (JP Yen)

Independent Variables : Age, Education (years), Relational Resource,

Property possession (Economic status; possession of fourteen items, house, PC, DVD player, etc. and used the total number of items), Household Income, etc.

I omitted income because it is similar with property.

For Male Cause of the anxiety on future life

Property possession (economic status) (-.18)Income (-.17)Residence year rate (.18)

Organization SizeEducationRelational resource

had indirect effectsAmount of loss, Self employment dummy

had no effect

Cause of DamageAge

no relationship with property possession, education, etc.

For Female Cause of Damage

Property possession Relational resourceResidence year rate Self employment dummyHome owner dummy

Cause of the anxiety on future lifeProperty possession (economic status) (-.13)Income (-.19)Education (-.14)Organization Size

Relational resource … no effectAmount of loss, Self employment dummy

had no effect

4.ConclusionA new finding is the absence of a relationship

between damage amount and economic status or education (for Male).

Main Cause of Damage was Age.

Old house, old area.

Another finding is the relationship between anxiety and and economic status or relational resource.

Cause of the anxiety on future lifeRelational resource (political power or connection)Economic StatusOrganization sizeAge

Anxiety (The Sense of Future Instability) is large among small power, poor, old people and female.

What is the interpretation of network effect?Distance for power centralIndicator of New and Old residentIndicator of hidden class:

　　　　 Elite Tokyo based people and Local people

Social network is very important in current Japan (post industrialized mobilized society).

Many social mobility, but existence of local people not moved to other area.

Social stratification of relational resource, not race or class, is important.

Thank you very much for your attention,

and for people cooperate with the survey,

Prof Kawamura of Tohoku Univ and students,

Scientific Fund for Research (SFR) of Rikkyo University.