Yields Moving Higher Before Supply and FOMC Next Week

8/9/2019 Yields Moving Higher Before Supply and FOMC Next Week

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Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Princeton, NJ. ValuEngine

covers over 5,000 stocks every day.

A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks,and commentary can be found HERE.

Apri l 20, 2010 Yields M oving Highe r Befor e Supply and FOMC Next Week

The US Treasury will announce auctions of 2-Year, 5-Year and 7-Year notes this Thursday forauction next Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. The FOMC meets next Tuesday andWednesday and an unchanged Fed Statement has been hinted in recent Bernanke testimonies.Commodities slump as the dollar firms up. My market call remains; Sell Strength, raise cashto 75%, as the Dow is headed for 8,500 before 11,500.

10-Year Note Yields tend to rise in anticipation of supply, then decline during the auction process, asdemand remains strong for the international safety of US Treasuries. Next week the US Treasury willauction $44 billion in 2-Year notes on Tuesday, $42 billion in 5-Year notes on Wednesday, and $32billion 7-Year notes next Thursday.

The 2-Year shows a weeks pivot at 1.02 with semiannual support at 1.089. Quarterly resistanceis 0.914.

The 5-Year is under the influence of pivots at: 2.529 semiannual, 2.487 weekly and 2.464

quarterly. The 7-Year is cheaper than quarterly and semiannual pivots at 3.173 and 3.107. The 10-Year held 4% recently and this weeks resistance is 3.735 with that semiannual pivot still

lurking at 3.675.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters


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The Beige Book for next weeks FOMC meeting showed that many Districts reported increasedactivity in housing markets, but from low levels. Commercial real estate market activity remained veryweak in most Districts. Activity in the banking and finance sector was mixed in a number of Districts, asloan volumes and credit quality decreased. While labor markets generally remained weak, some hiringactivity was evident, particularly for temporary staff. Wage pressures were characterized as minimal orcontained. Retail prices generally remained level, but some input prices increased. This backdrop willleave the federal funds rate at zero to .25% for an extended period.

Comex Gold Annual, quarterly and annual supports are $1115.2, $1052.8 and $938.7 with weeklyand semiannual pivots at $1131.3 and $1139.7, and daily, semiannual and monthly resistances at$1149.3, $1186.5 and $1202.5. Gold will stay in the trading range shown.


Nymex Crude Oil Annual and quarterly supports are $77.05 and $58.41 with a daily pivot at $82.39,and weekly and monthly resistances at $84.30 and $84.54, and annual and semiannual resistances at$97.29 and $97.50. The trading range has been moved upward, but that annual pivot remains amagnet at $77.05.


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The Euro Quarterly support is 1.2450 with a weekly pivot at 1.3507 and daily, monthly and quarterlyresistances at 1.3695, 1.4081, 1.4145 and 1.4478. The euro remains vulnerable versus the dollar.



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The Major Equi t y Avera ges

19-Apr YTD 31-Dec Cycle Cycle Date of % High % Off % Of

Market Price Gains Price Lows Highs Highs To Lows Lows Highs

The Dow 11,092.00 6.4% 10,428.00 6,469.95 14,198.10 Oct-07 -54.4% 71.4% 21.9%

S&P 500 1,197.50 7.4% 1,115.10 666.92 1,576.06 Oct-07 -57.7% 79.6% 24.0%

Nasdaq 2,480.00 9.3% 2,269.00 1,265.52 2,861.51 Oct-07 -55.8% 96.0% 13.3%

Utilities 379.79 -4.6% 398.01 288.66 555.71 Jan-08 -48.1% 31.6% 31.7%

Transports 4,609.00 12.4% 4,100.00 2,134.21 5,536.57 May-08 -61.5% 116.0% 16.8%

Russell 2000 711.40 13.8% 625.39 342.59 862.00 Jul-07 -60.3% 107.7% 17.5%

Semis (SOX) 389.66 8.3% 359.91 167.55 549.39 Jul-07 -69.5% 132.6% 29.1%

Dow Annual and quarterly supports are 10,379 and 7,490 with daily, weekly, monthly, annual, andsemiannual resistances at 11,196, 11,169, 11,228, 11,235 and 11,442.

S&P 500 Annual supports are 1179.0 and 1014.2 with semiannual and monthly pivots at 1194.6 and1199.6, and daily and weekly resistances at 1214.0 and 1218.9. Quarterly support is 805.4 withsemiannual resistance at 1281.1.

NASDAQ Monthly and semiannual pivots are 2415 and 2392 with a monthly pivot at 2465, and dailyand weekly resistances at 2519 and 2539. Semiannual, annual and quarterly supports are 2258, 2250

and 1833 with annual support at 1659.

Dow Utilities Daily, weekly and monthly pivots are 381.27, 380.10 and 384.78 with monthlyresistance at 394.36. Annual and quarterly supports are 315.38 and 307.70 with annual andsemiannual resistances are 456.73, 471.95 and 492.05.

Dow Transports Semiannual, monthly and annual supports are 4488, 4397 and 4324 with daily andweekly resistances at 4772 and 4731. Quarterly supports are 3447 and 3142 with annual andsemiannual resistances at 4955 and 5218.

Russell 2000 Semiannual and monthly pivots are 673.50 and 672.65 with an annual pivot at 717.69,and daily, annual, weekly and annual resistances at 722.48, 723.54, 732.87 and 748.99. Quarterly

support is 509.08.

The SOX Monthly and semiannual supports are 361.9 and 358.89 with weekly and daily pivots at388.57 and 395.82. Quarterly, semiannual and annual supports are 278.30, 271.90, 259.45 and241.05.


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Dow Trac k s Week ly Char t

Weekly Dow:The Dow tested its 200-week simple moving average at 11,134, but ended the weekbelow it with overbought momentum. The weekly chart remains positive but overbought on a closethis week above its 5-week modified moving average at 10,824. My annual and semiannualresistances are 11,235 and 11,442. I still predict Dow 8,500 before Dow 11,500. The 61.8%Fibonacci Retracement of the October 2007 high to March 2009 low at 11,246.


Thats todays Four in Four. Have a great day.

Richard SuttmeierChief Market Strategistwww.ValuEngine.com(800) 381-5576

As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. Ihave daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters aswell as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as theValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. I hope that you will go to www.ValuEngine.com and review some of the sampleissues of my research.

I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.

Yields Moving Higher Before Supply and FOMC Next Week

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