Yesterday, Today and TomorrowA trip down memory lane, then back to the future

1853, 1953, today and 2053

Phil Ruthven AMFounder

Clarendon Terrace

East Melbourne Victoria

21 June, 2017

East Melbourne in historical

context

Australia’s Population GrowthMillions 1788-2017 & beyond

Po

pu

lati

on

(m

illi

on

s)

Industrial

Age

02468

101214161820222426283032343638404244464850

1780

1790

1800

1810

1820

1830

1840

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Year, ended JuneIBISWorld 01/05/14

1853610,000,

or over

1 million

including

aboriginals

)

19538.8 million,

or over

9 million

including

aboriginals

205344 million

In 2017

East Melbourne

has around

5000 residents,

or 0.02% of

Australia

Living Longer And Working LongerLife Expectancy And The Retirement Age of Male Australians

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

18

00

18

10

18

20

18

30

18

40

18

50

18

60

18

70

18

80

18

90

19

00

19

10

19

20

19

30

19

40

19

50

19

60

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

20

20

30

20

40

20

50

20

60

20

70

20

80

20

90

21

00

Source: ABS, Australian Historical Statistics, IBISWorld

Who would want to be retired for 30+ years

in 2100; and could the nation afford it?

Female life

expectancy

A Flying Start to Riches

❖ East Melbourne was being settled when Australia was undergoing its first and most spectacular gold mining boom in its history in 1853.

❖ The nation’s standard of living had already nearly doubled from $6,100 in 1850 per person to $11,300 in today’s money terms by 1853 with a gold boom that took it to 18% of our economy in 1855

❖ By 1953, when the East Melbourne suburb had its first house (Cooke’s), our standard of living had risen to $18,500 or 64% higher than in 1853.

❖ Today, in 2017, our standard of living is $69,000 or nearly 4 times that of our first centenary.

❖ In 2053? At least $117,000 or 70% higher than today.

Australia’s Standard Of Living GrowthGDP /capita @ F2016 constant prices 1788-2016

SO

L (

20

16

p

rice

s, $

’00

0

Industrial

Age

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1501

78

01

79

01

80

01

81

01

82

01

83

01

84

01

85

01

86

01

87

01

88

01

89

01

90

01

91

01

92

01

93

01

94

01

95

01

96

01

97

01

98

01

99

02

00

02

01

02

02

02

03

02

04

02

05

02

06

02

07

02

08

02

09

02

10

02

11

02

12

0

Year, ended June IBISWorld 11/06/17

1853

1953

2053

A changing world

World’s 30 Largest Economies2017 (F)

World’s 230 nations

US$ 126 trillion

Mexico 1.9%Italy 1.8%South Korea 1.6%Saudi Arabia 1.4%Spain 1.4%Canada 1.4%Turkey 1.4%Iran 1.2%Australia 1.0%Taiwan 1.0%

Japan

11th – 20th Nations 14.2%

19.9% China*

15.4% USA

Purchasing Parity Price (PPP) Terms

Rest of World(200 nations)

14.8%

India

4.0%

3.3

%2.6

%

2.3

%

IMF/IBISWorld 01/02/17

Nigeria 0.9%Thailand 0.9%Poland 0.9%Egypt 0.9%Pakistan 0.8%Argentina 0.7%Malaysia 0.7%Netherlands 0.7%Philippines 0.7%South Africa 0.6%

* Includes Hong Kong,

excludes Taiwan

3.1

%

Just how happy or miserable are some

countries?

Australian Index of Consumer Sentiment2 months progressive to June 2017

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

Year commencing June

Recession Level

Happy 66% of last 40 years

74% of last 20 years

Source: Westpac-Melbourne Institute (IAESR, IBIS estimates 19/06/17

USA Index of Consumer Sentiment2 months progressive to March 2017

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Year commencing June

Recession Level

Source: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, 24/4/17 2017

Happy 46% of last 33 years

NZ Index of Consumer Sentiment2 months progressive to April 2017

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Year commencing June

Happy 73% of last 40 years

95% of last 20 years

Recession Level

Source: Roy Morgan Research / IBIS estimates 24/4/2017

UK Index of Consumer Sentiment2 months progressive to April 2017

4550556065707580859095

100105110115120125130135140145

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Happy 11% of last 40 years

15% of last 20 years

Recession Level

OECD EC Indicator 24/4/17

The World’s Economic Regions In 2017Share of World GDP (ppp basis)

2017 World GDP, $126 trillion

C&SAmerica

6.2%

North

America18.7%

W&C Europe17.2%

Eastern

Europe4.3%

Asia Pacific

32.8%Africa

4.9%

ME6.6%

2.6%

growth

IndianS-C9.3%

IBISWorld 10/01/17

Growth4.9%

Growth3.7%

Growth1.6%

Growth1.7%

Growth1.4%

Growth1.8%

Growth7.1%

Asia Mega-RegionGDP ppp terms 2017 (F)

Vietnam 1.2% Singapore 0.8% Myanmar 0.6% NZ 0.3% Macau 0.2% Others 0.6%

44.5% China

9.6%

Japan

(includes Hong Kong 0.9%)

2.2

%

Others 3.7%

* North Korea < 0.1%

South Korea 3.8%

38 nations

$US 53 trillion GDP (ppp terms)

42.1% of World GDP IMF/IBISWorld 22/02/17

Pakistan

Bangladesh

Sr Lanka Nepal Bhutan Maldives

0.7%

1.4

2.3

2.6

2.4

2.5

2.6

3.1

3.5

4.5

5.0

5.0

5.2

5.3

5.4

6.2

6.4

6.9

6.9

7.0

7.2

7.5

7.7

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Japan

Taiwan

Singapore

Hong Kong

S. Korea

Australia

New Zealand

Thailand

Nepal

Sri Lanka

Malaysia

Indonesia

Pakistan

Asia

Vietnam

China

Philippines

Bangladesh

Cambodia

India

Laos

Myanmar

Asia Growth 2017 (F)

Major Asia Pacific and Indian S-C nations (ppp ranking)

IMF/IBISWorld: 13/06/17Growth % (GDP)

World (4 mega-regions) 2.7%

Asia 5.4%

M.E & Africa 3.1%

Americas 1.7%

Europe 1.7%

Asia, the place to be

➢ Australia has integrated its economy and society into Asia at large and China in particular.

➢ Asia is a mega-region consisting of the Asia Pacific and Indian sub-continent. It is the most powerful region (41% of world GDP) and the fastest growing(5.4%% pa, over twice the rest of the world average).

➢ Over 75% of our export of goods & services now go to Asia, and two-thirds of our inbound tourists and immigrants come from Asia.

➢ Our population has moved from aboriginal (60,000 years), to British & European (200 years), to Eurasian (by 2100), and to Asian in the 22nd Century.

.

Our Changing

Society

Our Changing SocietyIn the Post-Industrial Age, post 1965

❖ Living longer

❖ More generations co-existing

❖ Living with more leisure

❖ Smaller/different households

❖ Moving to coast and equator

❖ Changing ethnic mix (Eurasian)

❖ New tribalism (less local)

❖ A stabilising divorce rate

❖ Rising incomes & wealth

❖ Apartment living rising

❖ Home leasing on the rise

❖ More spending on services

❖ Outsourcing tasks and chores

❖ Rise of virtual shopping

❖ Living with digital disruption

❖ The Internet/Information age

❖ Increasing knowledge

❖ Increasing financial literacy

❖ New entertainment & sports

❖ Electronic “guardian angels”

❖ Working differently

❖ New industries/ occupations

❖ Changing spirituality

❖ Outlawing discrimination

❖ Changing politics (ideologies)

❖ Ecological sensitivity

6.913.2

7.4 7.9 10.06.6

1.2 2.0 4.3

9.3

10.314.7 13.9 10.9 15.4

11.915.0

13.7

1.0

2.0 3.9 5.1 5.96.5

6.8

8.8 8.38.0

7.0 6.07.9 10.1

11.2

12.6

13.0 14.02.6

2.43.2

3.0

3.8 2.8

2.62.5

2.4

3.4

3.63.4

1.5

3.3 7.16.5

6.3

6.6

8.5

7.56.5

2.5

3.0

6.75.9

5.14.4

5.3

4.5 4.4

3.5

3.0

3.03.4

3.6

3.54.5

6.17.4

2.0

6.8

7.310.7

13.815.0 16.3

13.214.4

7.8

10.6

9.7

8.5

7.2

6.5 6.36.2

4.4

54.0

36.230.3

26.4 23.320.0 20.7 17.7 16.0

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0.3 4.8 14 30 118 360 543 1068 1492

Changing Household Spending% of total basis

$ billions

1900 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016

Non-durables

Durables1

Taxes (direct)

Health & Education

Hospitality

EntertainmentCommunications & Fares

Other services

Rent

Finance & Ins. Serv

Capital related

Savings

Note: 1 Durables includes cars, furniture, electrical, electronics etc. Source: ABS 5206/IBISWorld 23/05/17

$ 1501 billion ($156,000 per household 2)

H’Hold durables 2.7% Motor vehicles 1.2%Other 0.5%

16.3% Non-durables

Taxes(& social contributions)

4.3%

14.6%

Depreciation 7.5%

Dwell & Property Interest 3.8%

Consumer Debt Int 0.8%

Unincorp. Interest 0.5%

Transfers 1.3%

Australian Household Expenditure Year to March 2017

13.9%

Food 6.3% Alc.& Tobacco 2.1%Clothing 2.1%Utilities 1.7%Veh. Opern 3.2%Other 0.9%

6.5%

Notes:1 includes imputed rent

((home ownership), 9.7 of the 13.9)2 9.6 million in 2017 (ABS). Reduces to $140.400

without imputed rent of $150 billion Source: ABS5206/IBISWorld 09/06/17

Savings4.0%

Entertainment(Gambling 1.9%)

Industries into the future

Australia’s Ages Of Economic ProgressGDP @ Constant F2017 Prices 1788-2017 and onwards

GD

P $

bill

ion

Industrial

Age

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

30001

78

01

79

01

80

01

81

01

82

01

83

01

84

01

85

01

86

01

87

01

88

01

89

01

90

01

91

01

92

01

93

01

94

01

95

01

96

01

97

01

98

01

99

02

00

02

01

02

02

02

03

02

04

02

05

02

06

02

07

02

08

02

09

02

10

0

Hunting

Age

Agrarian

Age

Infotronics

AgeIndustrial

Age

Year, ended June IBISWorld 06/06/17

Manufacturing & Construction

dominate the economy

(c. 30-50%+ of GDP)

Agriculture,

Mining,

Banking,

Commerce

Quaternary

service

industries

Hunting,

trapping,

fishing,

crafts,

religion

Enlightenment

Age ?

Quinary

service

industries

Power the major utility

(water/steam, then

electricity) and telephony

IC&T

(analogue

then digital

& AI)

Transport

the major

utility

Imbedded

intelligence,

neural network

programs/analytics.

More electronic

“guardian angels”

and other new

technologies

There was no

“industry”

and no

significant

utility

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Note: At market prices to 1940, at factor cost thereafter Source: N.G Butlin, ABS & IBISWorld 8.01.15

1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2050

Changing Importance of Industry Divisions Shares of GDP by Industry Division, 1800-2050

1800

1820

1840

1860

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

2050

Agriculture

Mining

Manufacturing

Utilities

Construction

W’Sale Trade

Retail Trade

Transport, Postal

Media & Telecom

Finance & Insurance

Rental, Hiring. R Estate

Dwelling O’Ship

Prof & Tech Services

Admin Services

Public Admin/Safety

Ind taxes less subsidies

Education

Hospitality

Health & Social Assist

Arts & Recreation

Personal & Other Serv

Primary

Sector

Secondary

Sector

Tertiary

Sector

Quaternary

Sector

Quinary

Sector

Outsourcing Creates Most Industries & Jobs

❖ We outsourced the growing and mining of things to create the agriculture and mining industries, aided by a new utility (transport)

❖ We outsourced the making and building of things to create the Industrial Age industries of manufacturing and construction, with new utilities (power/electricity & communications)

❖ We are outsourcing services (household services and business functions) to create the current Infotronics Age from 1965-2040s, aided by yet another new utility (ICT, now the digital era)

❖ Outsourcing by households, businesses, government and overseas nations (to us) have created new services of over $ 1.4 billion in extra revenue pa by 2016.

Household Outsourcing In The New Age1

F2016 (E)

$410 billion$42,700 per Household

($818 per week)Source: IBISWorld 12/12/16

20.8%

10.0% Meals

Entertainment & Recreation

Other 2

2.5%

Note: 1 Spending on services,

new since 1965. Includes

new government-provided

services with our taxes

Entertainment, Recreation

Gambling, Clubs

Legal

Services

1.0%

Note: 2 Baby sitting, Foxtel,

Netflix, M/V hire, gardening

and many others

Australia’s Industry MixShares of GDP, in F201 price terms Year to March 2017

ABS 5206-6B IBISWorld 09/06/17

3.0%

Agriculture

2.4%Utilities2.6%

GDP $1685 billion

Mining

6.9%

Govt. Adm. 5.5%

8.9%

Info Media &

Communications

Cult & Rec. Serv.

0.8%

Pers. & Other Serv.

Hospitality

SectorsPrimary

Secondary

Tertiary

Quaternary

Quinary

Admin. &

Support

Services

Note 1: Less subsidies, but includes stat. discrepancy (0.3%)

Rental,

Hiring &

Real Estate

2.6%

Agriculture Fitzroy Gardens Conservatory and Nursery

Mining Can’t find any

Manufacturing Brewery, not operating these days

Utilities Electricity substation

Construction Always something (eg. Dallas Brooks Hall redevelopment)

W’Sale Trade No

Retail Trade Eastbourne, Pyman pharmacy, Laurent, liquor store

Transport, Postal Trams, rail, bus, cabs, uber

Media & Telecom No

Finance & Insurance Bank, ATMs

Rental, Hiring. Real Estate Realtors

Prof & Tech Services Architects,

Admin & Support Services Probably none

Public Admin/Safety Parliament House, public service operations

Education Schools (kindergarten)

Hospitality Restaurants, hotel, motels

Health & Social Assistance Epworth, St. Vincents, Mercy

Arts & Recreation MCG, Fitzroy Gardens, Tennis

Personal & Other Services St Patricks Cathedral, Bishopscourt, Fire Station

East Melbourne icons and activities

We are essentially a unique dormitory suburb, but . . . .

Work and jobs in the future

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

19

00

19

05

19

10

19

15

19

20

19

25

19

30

19

35

19

40

19

45

19

50

19

55

19

60

19

65

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

20

35

20

40

Australian LabourforcePart time vs full time labourforce as % of total population, 1901-2017

Equivalent full-time

participation 42%(constant over a century)

Years, ended June

Part-time/full-time split not available

from 1901-1964. Estimated range, 7-10%

Part-time

Full-timeIn the 2010s, Australia is having highest participation

rate (c. 52.5% of population) since the end of the

Convict Era in the middle of the 19th Century.

Source: IBISWorld 24/02/17

Source: ABS 13/02/17

0123456789

1011121314151617181920

18

90

18

95

19

00

19

05

19

10

19

15

19

20

19

25

19

30

19

35

19

40

19

45

19

50

19

55

19

60

19

65

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

20

35

20

40

Year, ended December

Unemployment in AustraliaAnnual, 1890-2016

Full Employment

defined as < 5%

Forecast

Full employment prevails for

60% of each century

De

pre

ss

ion

De

pre

ss

ion

Elongated

“depression”

Work And Leisure Over Time

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1788 1838 1888 1938 1988 2038 2088

Lif

e E

xp

ec

tan

cy

(th

ousa

nd

s o

f ho

urs

)

Year born

Leisure Time

Education

Sleep

Unpaid workTravel to work

Paid work

46%

44%

44%

32%29%

27%23%

20% 16% 11% 10% 9%24% 19%

New jobs 957,500

Health & Social Assistance

20.1%

Sources: ABS. IBISWorld, 09/06/17

Australia’s New & Lost JobsBy Industry 5 years to March 2017 Share of total basis

Lost jobs 132,000

Net new jobs

825,500

W’Saling

12.3%

Info

Media

& Telcos

12.0%

The nation created

over 7 times more

new jobs than it lost

Utilities11.4%

Pers &

Other

Serv

1.8%

Arts &

Recn,

Serv

1.3%

Where The Money Is By Industry Full-Time Total Adult Earnings December 2016 ($’000)

58.4

59.0

60.1

66.1

70.7

73.9

74.7

75.0

78.9

80.2

83.2

86

86.9

87.7

87.8

94.6

97.1

97.2

101.5

141.2

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160

Hospitality

Agriculture

Retail

Personal & Other

Adm & Support Serv

Rental & Real Est

Arts & Recreation

Manufacturing

Wholesale Trade

Health

ALL INDUSTRIES

Public Adm & Safety

Education

Transport & Postal

Construction

Prof & Tech Serv

Info Media & Telcos

Finance & Insurance

Utilities

Mining

All Industries

Wages ($’000)

Total employed

12 million end 2016

ABS 6302-10: 13/06/17

2.0% of workforce

1.1%

3.7%

1.7%

8.4%

9.3%

4.9%

8.0%

6.8%

12.8%

3.2%

7.5%

1.7%

1.8%

3.5%

4.0%

10.2%

2.5%

7.0%

Annualised earnings $’000

Growing

Growing

Growing

Growing

Declining

Declining

Growing

Growing

Growing

Growing

Declining

Growing

Growing

More worker freedom in the 21st Century

No “bondage” by businesses, bosses or unions . . .

. . .replaced by opportunity and empowerment

The gradual demise of the concept of an “employee”

Rise of contractual relationships (a worker being a business)

Rise of business ownership (workers owning a business)

Payment for outputs, not inputs (hours of work)

Emergence of advisers and mentors for worker contracts

No discrimination on any basis (gender/race/age/religion etc)

More part-time and casual work

Partial or total working from home, where practicable

More working seasons in a life

New industries & occupations

Working in a borderless world

Knowledge worker concept

Lifetime education & training

Rising wages & salaries

Our changing politics

Australia’s Best Leaders Those who made Australia very prosperous.

Those who were change agents & reformers

1. Cptn. Arthur Phillip (Govnr.)

2. Cptn. Philip King (Govnr.)

3. Maj. Gen. Macquarie (Govnr.)

4. Maj. Gen. R. Darling (Govnr.)

5. Maj. Gen. Bourke (Govnr.)

6. Sir Charles Fitz Roy (Govnr.)

7. Sir William Denison (Govnr.)

8. Sir J McCulloch (Prem. Vic.)

Sir Henry Parkes (Prem. NSW)

9. James Service (Prem. Vic.)

10. George Reid (Prem. NSW)

11. Sir George Turner (Prem. Vic.)

Edmund Barton (P/M)

12. Alfred Deakin (P/M)

13. Andrew Fisher (P/M)

14. William Hughes (P/M)

Joseph Lyons (P/M)

15. Robert Menzies (P/M)

16. John Curtin (P/M)

17. J. Ben Chifley (P/M)

18. John Gorton (P/M)

Gough Whitlam (P/M)*

Robert Hawke (P/M)*

19. John Howard (P/M)

IBIS’ Economic Health IndexBASE INDEX (=100)

GDP Growth (Real) 2.5% p.a.

Inflation 2.5%

Productivity 2.0% p.a.

Unemployment 5.0%

Current Account zero (balanced)

Interest Rates (Real) 5.0%

Exchange Rates (TWI) 100.0

The index is weighted (threefold) to the GDP component.

At an EHI of 100 points, an economy is termed “healthy”.

Why didn’t Keating (or Hawke) make the list?

In assessing the 76 leaders from Captain Arthur Phillip to the present day, we used an “Economic Health Index” as in previous slide.

In short, did the leader ensure: full employment (being under 5% unemployed); fair interest rates (between retirees and first-home buyers); good economic growth; a rising standard of living (via productivity); etc.

In the case of both Hawke and Keating, they didn’t make the list of best leaders due to high unemployment levels (worst since the Great Depression, earlier slide), scary interest rates(see overleaf); a trashed exchange rate at one stage; and they only balanced the books for two years out of 13; and built up the worst national debt the nation had for decades.

All that said, Hawke and Keating did a huge amount of reform, a lot of which had been rejected by the their own party, the ALP, for decades, not just the Coalition.

The best of these reforms included: freeing the exchange rate; dismantling the protection of industries; introduction of foreign banks; the superannuation levy in 1993; and more.

Great reformers, not so good economic managers; in fact terrible economic managers.I had hoped that Keating would come back after losing in 1996, as had Menzies in 1941.

He could have become the best leader in our history. Not to be.

Source: IBISWorld/Reserve Bank

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

241960

19

63

19

66

19

69

19

72

19

75

19

78

19

81

19

84

19

87

1990

19

93

19

96

19

99

20

02

20

05

20

08

20

11

20

14

20

17

20

20

Year, ended June

Inte

res

t R

ate

(%

)Indicator Lending Rates

Australia F1975 -2016

Overdraft(small business, variable)

Mortgage

(standard bank variable)

Characteristics of Successful Heads Of State

1. They were mostly elected in the last one-sixth of their then life expectancy

at birth (a legacy to be left rather than self-aggrandizement)

2. They were mostly civics, few were idealists and no ideologues

3. They were mostly conservatives using platforms to win office, then

running the country pragmatically

4. They came from the middle or working class (silver-tails unable to relate)

5. They were mostly professionals or tradesmen rather than businessmen

6. They were mostly born in second-string states (something to prove?)

7. Most had been blooded beforehand (militarily or psychologically).

8. They were tough, resolute and even ruthless when necessary, but often

lonely, aloof, moody and unsure.

9. They had a loyal aide who supported the leader.

10. They fashioned the economy rather than managed it

11. They ran balanced budgets, avoiding debt build-up

12. The were all males (but there will be some great female leaders in this Century).

Changing Political Ideologies

Socialism(the “left”, the “workers”,

nationalisation, share the

output equally)

Capitalism(the “right”, capital,

expand the economy,

reward enterprise)

Rationality(the “head”, logic,

facts, proof, what works)

Emotionality(gut-feel, the “heart”, “ideologies”,

post-Truth, “everybody knows”

“alternative facts”)

Industrial Age to 1964

New

Ag

e to

2040s

Howard/Costello

Governments

Abbott & Turnbull

GovernmentsGillard & Rudd

Governments

Hawke/Keating

Government

The Greens,

Family First

Hanson’s One Nation

It’s the workers stupid! It’s the owners stupid!

1967-1983

Gorton LNP Rational

McMahon LNP Emotional

Whitlam ALP Emotional

Fraser LNP Emotional

Rational Vs Emotional Government

Government Party Term Type GDP Growth

(years) (average pa)

Gorton Coalition 3.3 Rational 4.8%

4.8%

McMahon Coalition 2.0 Emotional 2.8%

Whitlam Labor 3.0 Emotional 3.3%

Fraser Coalition 7.0 Emotional 2.4%

2.7%

Hawke Labor 8.8 Rational 3.1%

Keating Labor 4.3 Rational 3.6%

Howard Coalition 11.0 Rational 3.7%

3.5%

Rudd Labor 2.8 Emotional 2.1%

Gillard Labor 3.0 Emotional 2.8%

Abbott Coalition 2.0 Emotional 2.5%

Turnbull Coalition 1.0 Emotional 2.9%

2.5%

GDP growth over the past 50 years: Rationalists 3.7% pa Emotionalists 2.6% pa

Our economic outlook?

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

196

0

196

2

196

4

196

6

196

8

197

0

197

2

197

4

197

6

197

8

198

0

198

2

198

4

198

6

198

8

199

0

19

92

199

4

199

6

199

8

200

0

200

2

200

4

200

6

200

8

201

0

201

2

201

4

201

6

201

8

202

0

202

2

202

4

202

6

202

8

Source: IBISWorld: 07/06/17Years, ended June

Averages

3.5% pa (52 years)

3.2% pa (since 1987)

Australia’s Economic Growth Annual real GDP growth (%) progressed in quarters to March 2017 (and forecast to June 2021)

Why Australia can smile in 2017. . . but not be complacent

❖ We have one of the highest standards of living in the world

❖ We have the world’s most livable city (Melbourne)

❖ And four others in the Top 10; how good is that.

❖ We are mostly a confident nation (Consumer Sentiment)

❖ We are part of the world’s fastest growing region: the Asia Pacific

❖ Our population growth (1.5% pa) is faster than the world’s 1.3% pa

❖ We have virtually no serious racial tensions or terrorism

❖ Our unemployment, while not “full” is among the OECD’s lowest

❖ We are creating over 7 times more jobs than we are losing each 5 years

❖ Our national debt is the lowest in the OECD as % of GDP

❖ We are one of the lowest taxed nation among the OECD rich countries.

❖ Our deficits are chronic but low within the OECD, and fixable.

❖ Our interest rates are low

❖ Sadly, four inadequate governments in Canberra over past 10 years.

Finishing with fun:

things that seem true, but are they?

Some urban myths

❖ Marriages don’t last as long as they used to

❖ Eating too many eggs raises your cholesterol level

❖ We will run out of jobs due to robots, AI and technology

❖ We will run out of workers due to ageing

❖ We are working longer hours and harder than ever

❖ Immigrants take our jobs, causing high unemployment

❖ Australia cannot take a much greater population

❖ We need a big population to compete in the world

❖ We need to make things to pay our way and prosper

❖ The rich are getting richer and the poor poorer

❖ The rich don’t pay a big enough share of taxes

❖ We could become the food bowl of Asia