Yearly Technical Outlook 2019 Technical Outlook...

Research Analyst:Dharmesh Shah Nitin Kunte, [email protected] [email protected]

Ninad Tamhanekar, CMT [email protected]

Pabitro Mukherjee Vinayak [email protected] [email protected]

Yearly Technical Outlook 2019Yearly 2019 Technical Outlook

December 21, 2018

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Deciphering Election Noise: Returns are real; nervousness a myth…

December 21, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 1

As 2018 draws to an end, the big question on the investor’s mind is “How to navigate election year volatility?”

“Technical Strategy 2019” is, therefore, centred around complementing empirical inference with a bottom-up model to arrive at the prognosis for CY19;

…the message is amply clear, shrug off the nervousness and embrace the equities as;

in each of the past three election years, Nifty 50 (large caps) and Nifty500 (broad based) have generated returns in excess of 11% and 18%, respectively.

the second half of election years has always witnessed a broad based rally led by cyclicals (double digit returns)

our bottom-up method of prognosis for the Nifty projects an upside towards 12200-12500 in CY19, further validated by conventional chart work

The key inference from the past three election cycles (covering two decades) is that cyclicals have generated above average returns for investors in an election

year, which is concurrent with our bottom-up work. The top two baskets of Nifty constituents, a) Turnaround stocks and b) Outperformer stocks are led by

cyclicals and are likely to generate average returns of 26% and 24%, respectively. Between two of them, they carry 62% weightage of Nifty Index, thus

corroborating our bullish stance, derived from empirical studies.

Technical Outlook for 2019

Technic

al S

trategy –

2019

Top Picks CY19

An anxiety around key events (domestic or international) has always triggered

volatility in the past. However, markets always steer clear of them once anxiety

settles down, irrespective of the outcome. Below are a few examples:

Event Outcome Period

6M 12M

2018 State election

Results not in line with market

expectations

December

2018

So far 6% ??

2016 US elections* Results against consensus

November

2016

10% 27%

2004 General Election

Coaliation Govt. perceived negative

for markets

May 2004 9% 16%

* Returns shown are for Dow Jones Industrial Average

Post Event returns Scrip

I-Direct

Code

Buying Range Target Stop loss Upside%

Axis Bank AXISBAN 620-640 755 569 20

Britannia Industries BRIIND 3050-3200 3,790 2,740 22

Abbot India ABBIND 7300-7500 9,368 6,380 27

Voltas VOLTAS 560-580 688 497 20

TVS Motors TVSMOT 570-590 720 495 24

JSW Energy JSWENE 67-73 96 56 37

Aditya Birla Fashion ADIFAS 195-206 263 163 31

Technical Strategy CY18 Performance

No. of

recommendations

Avgerage

Return (%)

Strike Rate

8 26% 57%

Click here to know more..

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

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Election Year: Cyclicals will drive...

In two out of three occasions, the markets behaved indecisively five

months prior to elections. In contrast, throughout the past three

elections, both Nifty and Nifty 500 indices exhibited a robust

performance seven months post the election phase with average

returns of 27% and 33%, respectively

During all three election years, pharma & BFSI have remained

positive whereas auto, capital goods, construction and infra sectors

have relatively outperformed during an election year

During seven months post elections, all

sectors performed and clocked double

digit gains

December 21, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity ResearchSource: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

Among defensives, FMCG and pharma have

relatively outperformed five months prior to

elections. In contrast, consumer discretionary and

IT have outperformed seven months post elections

2

5 Months Pre -

Election

7 Months Post -

Election

5 Months Pre -

Election

7 Months Post -

Election

5 Months Pre -

Election

7 Months Post -

Election

Index Nifty -8 22 26 43 13 15

Index Nifty 500 -6 26 23 53 14 21

Cyclical Auto & Components -12 45 16 120 28 80

Cyclical BFSI 0 46 5 70 20 43

Cyclical Capital Goods -12 67 6 89 23 44

Cyclical Cement -2 67 10 69 33 53

Cyclical Construction and Infra -8 63 37 112 38 28

Cyclical Energy -11 36 52 58 22 14

Cyclical Metals -25 77 34 123 17 -1

Cyclical Power -14 52 37 45 13 16

Defensive Consumer discretionary -20 83 -5 106 20 36

Defensive FMCG -5 51 38 82 7 27

Defensive IT -27 55 9 119 8 34

Defensive Pharmaceuticals 1 39 28 89 11 31

SectorsSector's Nature

Sectoral Election Year Trend (Returns in %) Universe: Nifty 500

20142004 2009

Click here to go to top

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Category

No. of

Stock

Aggregate

Weightage

Projected

Returns

Contribution

to Nifty

Nifty Target 12230

Market

Performer

8

23

7.4%

25.8%Neutral

2553

5503

919

3255

Turnaround 6 16.6% 26%

Outperformer 12 44.9% 24%

17%

1%

December 21, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 3Source: ICICI Direct Research

…Nifty @ 12200-12500, reiterated via bottom up way…-------- P

otentia

l R

eturns (

%) --------

-5

-10

-15

-20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1 2 4 5

-------- Technical Ranking --------

3

Returns RankingReturns Ranking

Returns Ranking RankingReturns

Outperformers

Reliance, Titan, HDFC,

HDFC Bank, TCS,

Hindustan Unilever…

Turnaround

Axis, SBI, Wipro,

ITC, L&T and Tech

Mahindra

Market Performers

UltraTech, Maruti, Zee,

Bharti Airtel…

Underperformers

IndusInd Bank, Eicher

Motors, Sun Pharma,

Tata Motors, HCL Tech

Bottom up prognosis indicates bullish

undertone for 69% constituents

Turnaround: Attempting major breakouts after elongated

period of underperformance, thereby pricing in all negatives

Outperformer: reflects structural uptrend and likely to

outperform. Corrections to offer incremental investment

opportunity

Market Performers: offers favourable risk-reward, likely to

perform in tandem with benchmarks

Underperformers: likely to extend price/time correction and

remain laggards based on technical set-up

* Ranking improves from 1 to 5


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December 21, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 4Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

...and conventional practice validates the same

138.2% external retracement and upper

band of channel @ 12400-12500

2539

6338

9119

Major long term support area around 9500-

9300

the long term trend line support joining

major lows since 2011

50% retracement of the CY16-18 rally

the long term 50 months EMA, which

has historically acted as strong support

at 9300

50 retracement

@ 4531

50 retracement @

6825

50 Months EMA

Monthly bar chart

Election year index return

In the last three

election years, the

Nifty has always

given strong returns

Conventional chart

method remarkably

corroborates the path

projected by the

bottom-up model

Year % Gain/Decline

May-04 11%

May-09 76%

May-14 31%


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Market breadth at bearish extreme; panic to offer buying opportunity

500

1500

2500

3500

4500

5500

6500

7500

8500

9500

10500

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

In %

% Stocks Above 200 DMA

% stocks above 200 DMA Nifty 500

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Nifty 500: NET Breadth (Advance - Decline)

Net Breadth (Advance - Decline)

% of stocks above 200 DMA dropping below 20 coincides with market bottom

Net advance - decline below -400 signifies market sentiment at its bearish extreme, offers favourable entry points….

Immediately after 2004 election indicator

approached its oversold territory of 20

Before 2009 election, indicator

was hovering in oversold territory

In a year before 2014 election,

indicator reversed from 20 levels

In the current scenario, indicator is

hovering around oversold territory ahead

of election 2019…

Universe: Nifty 500

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Stock selection: Deciphering the bottom-up way…

Over the past few years, our emphasis on building a statistical model for stock selection, based on our in-house technical screeners, has provided rich dividends.

Year on year, we have strengthened our parameters to adapt to changing market dynamics. The virtues of such a statistical approach are:

(a) removing individual biases in stock picking; (b) efficient screening of market internals, which helps to build a holistic bottom-up approach;

(c) achieving more objectivity in market analysis to arrive at high probability investment ideas

Our in-house statistical model includes technical screeners to identify bargain buying, structural turnarounds and outperformers. This bottom-up approach has

provided valuable insights into sectoral internals, as compared to conventional ways

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…Stock selection: Bottom up way

Company Name

Idirect

Code

Market Capital

(| crore)

Returns

(6M) %

Returns

(12M) %Outperformer

Structural

Turnaround /

Breakout

Bargain Buy

Auto and Auto ancilliary:

Maruti Suzuki MARUTI 231507 -14.77 -15.88 √

Mayur Uniquoter MAYUNI 1773 -12.54 -21.85 √

TVS Motor Company TVSMOT 26914 -1.72 -23.99 √

BFSI:

Axis Bank AXIBAN 158857 14.53 15.55 √

Bajaj Finance BAJFI 143891 11.5 49.44 √

H D F C HDFC 333876 6.1 14.4 √

HDFC Bank HDFBAN 571169 3.23 15.33 √

State Bank of India STABAN 257564 0.33 -7.87 √

Capital Goods:

A B B ABB 30461 14.02 5.82 √

L&T LARTOU 199837 5.01 19.86 √

Timken India TIMIND 4377 -23.27 -32.34 √

Cement and Infra:

J K Cements JKCEME 5103 -20.75 -30.77 √

The Ramco Cement RAMCEM 14724 -15.4 -10.72 √

UltraTech Cement ULTCEM 108577 4.09 -7.49 √

NCC NAGCON 4967 -23.92 -30.39 √

Consumer goods:

Britannia Industries BRIIND 76784 2.7 35.5 √

Hindustan Unilever HINLEV 401109 14.36 40.75 √

ITC ITC 337474 2.8 6.39 √

Marico MARLIM 48330 11.02 21.68 √

Voltas VOLTAS 18760 7.98 -8.42 √

* Stocks highlighted in Bold and Italics are our CY19 recommendations

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Company Name

Idirect

Code

Market Capital

(| crore)

Returns

(6M) %

Returns

(12M) %Outperformer

Structural

Turnaround /

Breakout

Bargain Buy

Energy:

Indraprastha Gas INDGAS 17773 -5.12 -21.12 √

JSW Energy JSWENE 11568 8.1 -23.2 √

Reliance Industries RELIND 701552 10.45 21.09 √

Hotels & Restaurants:

EIH EIHLIM 11342 10.13 37.19 √

Indian Hotels INDHOT 17649 9.2 23.2 √

IT:

Intellect Design Arena INTDES 3063 7.52 65.69 √

TCS TCS 744342 8.74 51 √

Tech Mahindra TECMAH 69640 -0.52 41.4 √

Wipro WIPRO 153254 25.95 17.95 √

Logistics:

Container Corporation CONCOR 31637 -1.67 0.2 √

TCI Express TCIEXP 2354 9.71 12.46 √

Media and Entertainment:

Zee Entertainment ZEEENT 47409 -11.7 -12.78 √

Metals:

APL Apollo APLAPO 3097 -27.26 -32.7 √

Mah. Seamless MAHSEA 3389 12.85 6.46 √

Tata Steel TATSTE 57711 -9.74 -21.18 √


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Company Name

Idirect

Code

Market Capital

(| crore)

Returns

(6M) %

Returns

(12M) %Outperformer

Structural

Turnaround /

Breakout

Bargain Buy

Other:

Balrampur Chini BALCHI 2399 47.27 -27.81 √

GE Shipping Company GESHIP 5143 6.74 -12.04 √

JK Paper JKPAP 2814 28.53 18.23 √

Kajaria Ceramics KAJCER 7150 -17.83 -35.36 √

Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare:

Abbott India ABBIND 15947 18.67 35.45 √

Astrazeneca Pharma ASTPHA 3530 9.21 27.04 √

Dr Reddy's Labs DRREDD 43107 15.28 14.83 √

Ipca Labs. IPCLAB 10150 17.18 45.72 √

Apollo Hospitals APOHOS 17021 25.29 3.12 √

Realty:

Godrej Properties GODPRO 15349 -12.78 -4.91 √

Phoenix Mills PHOMIL 9477 -3.42 11.34 √

Retail:

Aditya Birla Fashion ADIFAS 15304 42.56 17.69 √

Shoppers Stop SHOSTO 4469 -10.44 -4.69 √

Titan Company TITIND 83882 2.85 15.23 √

Textiles:

Raymond RAYMON 5306 -12.67 -10.92 √

Rupa & Co RUPACO 2528 -27.54 -33.39 √


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o A breakout above four year long ‘Symmetrical Triangle’ pattern suggests a structural change providing fresh entry

opportunity

o Major support base is placed at | 580 as it is last two month’s consolidation base and 12 months EMA at | 583

o We expect the stock to head towards | 770 levels in the coming year as it is the 123.6% extension of the previous up

move from | 481 to | 678 as projected from the recent trough of | 535 signals upside towards | 770

123.6% extension @ 770

367

638

678

153

CMP 633.00

Buying Range 620.00-640.00

Target 755.00

Stop loss 569.00

Potential Upside 20%

Market Cap. In (| Cr.) 162853

52 Weeks High/Low 676/477

50 /200 Days EMA 610/578

MF Holding 9.99%

FII Holding 49.95%

A breakout above the four year long Symmetrical

Triangle pattern suggests a structural change in

favour of bulls

AXIS Bank (AXIBAN): Structural turnaround as breakout above triangular consolidation…

Monthly Bar ChartKey Highlights

Axis Bank vs. Nifty

655

Monthly MACD is seen diverging from its nine period’s

average signals strength in current up move

481

535

12 months EMA

400

500

600

7800

9000

10200

11400

Jan-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 Jul-18

Nifty (LHS) Axis bank (RHS)

Initiated on i-click to gain on 21st

December 2018 at 09:29 hours


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o The share price of Britannia has been trading in a secular bull trend and has undergone periodic corrective phases that

have offered prices to cool off the overbought situation. Hence, they provided a fresh entry opportunity

o In the current scenario, prices have been inching northward after forming a higher base around 2650 as buying

demand emerged from 61.8% retracement of last major up move (seen during February–August 2200 – 3467), placed

at 2684 coinciding with 12 months EMA placed around 2770

o We expect the share price to resolve higher head towards | 3800 in coming year as it is the 138.2% external

retracement of the previous decline (| 3467 to | 2628) placed around 3790

CMP 3190.00

Buying Range 3050.00-3200.00

Target 3790.00

Stop loss 2740.00




50 /200 Days EMA 3008/2861

MF Holding 5.96%

FII Holding 16.29%

Britannia Industries (BRIIND): Structural Uptrend to continue


Britannia Industries vs. Nifty

3467Price have been inching northward after forming base near

key support level around 2650

Bullish crossover in Monthly stochastic validates positive bias

1200

2200

3200

6500

7700

8900

10100

11300


Nifty (LHS) Britannia (RHS)

2628

22001717

1252

The stock rebound from major

support around |2650:

- 12 months EMA

- 61.8% retracement of

previous up move

138.2% external

retracement @ 3790

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o The stock is in a secular uptrend as it has registered a breakout above multiyear highs around | 6170 during the

middle of the previous year and is seen maintaining a higher peak and higher trough on the long term chart

o The last two year’s up move is well channelled signalling sustained buying demand at elevated levels. The stock after

the last three month’s corrective decline is currently seen rebounding from the lower band of the channel

o We expect the stock to resume its fresh up move and test | 9370 in the coming year as it is the 123.6% external

retracement of the previous decline (| 8820-6900) at | 9370

CMP 7450.00

Buying Range 7300.00-7500.00

Target 9368.00

Stop loss 6380.00




50 /200 Days EMA 7510/7010

MF Holding 5.28%

FII Holding 2.15%

Abbott India (ABBIND): Likely to accelerate secular up move in CY19…


Abbott India vs. Nifty 500

The stock in structural up trend trading in a rising channel highlighting

sustained buying demand at elevated levels

Monthly MACD remain in up trend thus supports the positive bias

123.6% external

retracement @ 9368

4001

5430

6900

8820

6177

50% retracement &

Lower band of channel

4000

6000

8000

6500

7700

8900


NSE 500 (LHS) Abbott (RHS)

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o The primary uptrend in Voltas remain intact as the stock is seen consolidating above the multiyear trendline breakout

joining the high of CY10 (| 262) and CY16 (| 402) signalling a Change of Polarity as the previous resistance has

reversed its role and acting as support

o A slower retracement of the previous up move signals corrective nature of current decline and positive price structure

o We expect the stock to head towards | 695 in the medium term as it is the 138.2% external retracement of the

previous major decline (| 637-472) at | 695

CMP 572.00


Target 688.00

Stop loss 497.00




50 /200 Days EMA 551/558

MF Holding 22.20%

FII Holding 15.92%

Initiated on i-click to gain on 20th

December 2018 at 15:11 hrs

Voltas (VOLTAS): Change of polarity of previous multiyear trendline breakout acting as support…


Voltas vs. Nifty 500

Change of Polarity as the previous trendline resistance has reversed its

role and acting as support. The primary up trend is intact

63

402

211

262

472

637

138.2% external

retracement @ 695

Monthly 14 periods RSI is seen rebounding from its November 2016

lows highlighting overall strength

A slower retracement of the

previous up move signals

corrective nature of the current

decline and overall positive

price structure

300

500

6500

7700

8900


NSE500 (LHS) Voltas (RHS)

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o The share price of TVS Motors has registered a breakout above the 12 months downward sloping channel signalling a

reversal of the corrective trend and offers a fresh entry opportunity to ride the next up move in the stock

o The stock is seen rebounding in the last two months from the major support area of | 500-520 as it is confluence of

lower band of the last five months consolidation and 61.8% retracement of previous up move (| 355-794)

o We expect the recent corrective decline to have approached maturity. The stock is likely to resolve higher from here

on and head towards | 730 in medium term as it is the 80% retracement of the previous major decline (| 794-507)

CMP 584.00


Target 720.00

Stop loss 495.00




50 /200 Days EMA 553/574

MF Holding 10.25%

FII Holding 18.37%

Initiated on i-click to gain on 21st


TVS Motors (TVSMOT): Corrective phase approaches maturity…


TVS Motors vs. Nifty 500

794

508

355

322

201

A falling channel breakout suggests a reversal of the

corrective trend and offers fresh entry opportunity

80% retracement

@ 730

Major support around | 500 levels being the

lower band of last five months consolidation

and 61.8% retracement (355-794)

360

560

760

6500

7700

8900

Jan-17 May-17 Oct-17 Mar-18 Aug-18

NSE500 (LHS) TVS Motors (RHS)

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o The stock has formed potential double bottom near the 80% retracement of the August 2013 to February 2015 up

move (| 34 to | 125) signalling a reversal of the corrective trend and offering a fresh entry opportunity

o The up move during CY17 was on the back of strong volume of almost double of 12 months average volume of 11

crore per months whereas the correction during CY18 was accompanied by very thin volume suggesting larger

participation in the direction of the trend

o We expect the stock to maintain its positive bias and head towards | 97 levels as it is the 61.8% retracement of

previous decline (| 126 to | 53) and high of January 2018 at | 97

CMP 71.00


Target 96.00

Stop loss 56.00




50 /200 Days EMA 68/70

MF Holding 3.36%

FII Holding 6.12%

JSW Energy (JSWENE): Potential double bottom at major value area…

Monthly Bar Chart Key Highlights

JSW Energy vs. Nifty 500

97

Potential double bottom at 80%

retracement @56

126

34 High volume during price rise and low volume during correction

Bullish crossover in the Monthly 14 periods RSI

61.8% retracement

@ 97

40

60

80

100

6500

7700

8900


NSE500 (LHS) JSW Energy

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o The stock registered a breakout above the 30 months consolidation range of | 123 – 188, signalling a resumption of

the primary up trend

o The breakout was supported by strong volume of more than four times the 12 months average volume of 1.8 cr. share

per month signalling larger participation in the direction of the trend

o We expect the share price to head towards | 263 in the coming year as it is the 123.6% extension of the previous up

move (| 132 to | 215) as projected from the recent trough of | 160 signalling upside towards | 263

CMP 202.00


Target 263.00

Stop loss 163.00




50 /200 Days EMA 188/173

MF Holding 14.22%

FII Holding 9.50%

Initiated on i-click to gain on 20th


Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail (ADIFAS): Rising out of hibernation…


ABFRL vs. Nifty 500

123.6% extension @ 263

80

188

132

263

A breakout above the 30 months consolidation

range signals structural change in trend

123

215

160

Range breakout with strong volume signals larger participation at the breakout level

Monthly MACD remains in strong uptrend

100

150

200

6500

7700

8900


NSE500 (LHS) ABFRL

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Commodity and Currency Outlook

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Gold ($ 1255): Set to retest upper band of consolidation @ 1375

Monthly Bar chart


1921

1350-1375 range

1046

1167

Gold prices are undergoing an elongated time correction, which is

approaching maturity. We expect prices to trade with a positive bias and test

the upper band of the last five years’ consolidation around $1375 in CY19

Higher base formed at the 50% retracement of the

2001-11 multifold rally

2001-2011 multifold rally

1124

Monthly RSI is seen sustaining above the bull market support level of 40

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Brent ($55): Upsides capped…


128

86.75

116

147.5

Upside in Brent prices looks capped as it has major hurdle

around $68-70 levels:

- recent trendline breakdown area

- 50% retracement of previous decline (86-57)

Confluence of the

multiple retracement

around $50-makes it a

major support in

medium term

Monthly MACD giving bearish crossover signaling loss of positive momentum

Brent prices uptrend of last two years has reversed as

breakdown below rising trendline. We expect it to consolidate in

medium term and oscillate in the broad range of $ 50-70

Monthly Bar Chart

44

27

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LME Aluminium ($1927): Consolidating with corrective bias…

Monthly Bar chart


1251

1424

75% retracement

@ 2772

3292

Monthly MACD developed negative cross over indicating waning bullish momentum

Aluminium prices forming lower high and lower low signalling a

corrective bias. Upside looks capped around $2500 and pull

backs to be short lived given weak price structure. Key support

around 1650-1700 levels

80% retracement

@ 2602

Major support @ 1650

-80% retracement

- Long term trendline support

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LME Copper ($ 5990): Slower pace of rally indicates structural weakness…

Monthly Bar chart


2768

50 retracement

@ 7323

4310

10179

2017-18 rally being reversed. Slower pace and magnitude of rally resulted

in lower top on longer duration and indicates benign prices ahead.

Upsides capped at 7000 with key support around 5000-5200 levels

Major support around 5000

-80% retracement

- long term trend line support

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Rupee (70): Consolidation in range of 67-74 likely...

Monthly bar chart (Inverted scale)


52.2

39.2

68.8

43.8

The rupee in a General Election year usually consolidates after sharp

depreciation in a pre-election year. The same rhythm is likely to follow in the

coming year as we expect the rupee to consolidate in the range of 67-75. The

recent low of 74.50 is likely to be a major support in the coming year

Key hurdle at 67 levels

- Rising trendline joining lows since

2011

- Recent breakdown area

- 61.8% retracement of previous

decline (63.20-74.45)

Key support at 74.50

Consolidation during






Election Month

% Return 6 M prior to

General Election

% Return 6 M post

to General Election

May-14 1.89 4.49

May-09 -1.28 -7.12

May-04 1.81 -2.34

Rupee Returns 6 Months Prior & Post to General Election Month

68.8

63.2

46.5

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Performance Scorecard

Yearly Technical Recommendation 2018 follow up

Rec. Date Stock Recommended Rec Price Target Stop loss % Profit/Loss Comment

21-Dec-17 Bharti Airtel 520.00 668.00 410.00 -21.0 Stoploss triggered

21-Dec-17 Axis Bank 540.00 638.00 485.00 10.0 Booked profit at 592.00

21-Dec-17 Punjab National Bank 167.00 230.00 138.00 16.0 Booked profit at 194.00

21-Dec-17 Tata Chemicals 722.00 878.00 634.00 0.0 Closed near cost at 718.00

21-Dec-17 RCF 91.00 130.00 68.00 -25.0 Stoploss triggered

21-Dec-17 EIH Ltd 145.00 228.00 125.00 57.0 Target Achieved

21-Dec-17 Brigade Enterprises 305.00 420.00 231.00 -24.0 Stoploss triggered

13-Dec-16 Zee Media 37.00 54.00 31.00 21.0 Booked profit at 44.80

23%

27%

33%

25%

28%26%

79%

0

20

40

60

80

100

10

15

20

25

30

35

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Strik

e R

ate (%

)

Avg. R

eturn o

n P

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e C

alls (%

)

Avg. return on positive calls Avg. Strike Rate

Year


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Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

[email protected]


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We /I, Dharmesh Shah, Nitin Kunte, Ninad Tamhanekar, Pabitro Mukherjee, Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject

issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

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The information and opinions in this section have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way,

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The research recommendations are based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. These research recommendations and information

herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving

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arising out of the use of these recommendations. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ

materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned herein during the period preceding twelve months from the date of these recommendations for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate

finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned herein in the past twelve months.

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its Analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the

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It is confirmed that Dharmesh Shah, Nitin Kunte, Ninad Tamhanekar, Pabitro Mukherjee and Vinayak Parmar, Research Analysts giving these recommendations have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned herein in the preceding twelve months.

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions

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