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Year in Review Economic Briefing - whitehouse.gov · 2013-12-19 · 3 Source: Bureau of Labor...
Transcript of Year in Review Economic Briefing - whitehouse.gov · 2013-12-19 · 3 Source: Bureau of Labor...
Year in Review Economic Briefing
Council of Economic Advisers
December 19, 2013
I. Labor Market II. GDP III. Housing IV. Energy V. Health VI. Fiscal Situation
2
Table of Contents
3 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Businesses Have Added 8.1 Million Jobs Over the Last 45 Months
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200
400
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-400
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0
200
400
Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13
Monthly Change in Private Payroll Employment Thousands, Seasonally Adjusted
Nov-13
12-monthmoving average
I. Labor Market
4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Jan-90 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10
Unemployment Rate by DurationPercent of Civilian Labor Force
Nov-13
Unemployed for 26 Weeks or Less
Unemployed for 27 Weeks & Over
2001-07 Average
2001-07 Average
The Unemployment Rate Has Fallen Steadily—But the Long-Term Unemployment Rate Remains Significantly Elevated
I. Labor Market
5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Recent Months of Real Wage Growth Have Been Strongest Since 2009...
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-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-3
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Growth in Real Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Workers
12-Month Percent Change
Nov-2013
I. Labor Market
6
…But Wage Inequality Continued its Decades-Long Increase
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
2000:Q1 2003:Q1 2006:Q1 2009:Q1 2012:Q1
Usual Weekly Earnings for Full-Time Wage & Salary Workers, by Percentile
Ratio
Ratio of 90th Percentile to 10th Percentile
(Left Axis)
Ratio of 90th Percentile to Median
(Right Axis)
TEST
TEST
2013:Q3
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
I. Labor Market
7 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Real GDP Growth in Q3 Was the Strongest in Over a Year
0.3
3.12.7
1.5
-2.7
2.0
-2.0
-8.3
-5.4
-0.4
1.3
3.9
1.6
3.9
2.8 2.8
-1.3
3.2
1.4
4.9
3.7
1.2
2.8
0.11.1
2.5
3.6
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-4
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0
2
4
6
8
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2
4
6
8
2007:Q1 2008:Q1 2009:Q1 2010:Q1 2011:Q1 2012:Q1 2013:Q1
Real Gross Domestic Product GrowthAnnualized Quarterly Percent Change
2013:Q3
II. GDP
8 Source: Federal Reserve Board.
89
10111213141516171819202122
Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14
Car and Light Truck SalesMil lions of Units, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Nov-13
Vehicle Sales Rose to a 5-Year High in November
II. GDP
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0
10
20
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0
10
20
30
40
2007:Q1 2009:Q1 2011:Q1 2013:Q1
Real Residential Investment: Quarterly Percent Change
Percent, Annual Rate
2013:Q3
9 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Residential Investment Has Contributed to Growth For 12 Straight Quarters…
II. GDP
10 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
…But Business Fixed Investment Has Grown More Slowly
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-25
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-15
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10
15
20
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5
10
15
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2007:Q1 2009:Q1 2011:Q1 2013:Q1
Real Business Fixed Investment: Quarterly Percent Change
Percent, Annual Rate
2013:Q3
II. GDP
11
The Trade Deficit Is Narrower than Pre-Crisis Years, Helped by a Falling Deficit in Petroleum Products—And the Current Account Deficit is the Lowest As a Share of the Economy Since 1998
*2013 based on merchandise trade data through October and average current account through Q3. Source: Census Bureau; Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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0
10
20
30
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50
60
70
80
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13*
All other goods
Petroleum
U.S. Merchandise Trade and Current Account DeficitsAvg. Monthly Goods Trade Deficit, Bil. Chn. 09$ Current Account Deficit Percent of GDP
II. GDP
12 Source: Census Bureau.
Housing Has Been Recovering and There Is Still Upside Potential
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1600
2000
2400
2800
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1600
2000
2400
2800
'60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15
New Residential Construction: Building PermitsThousands, Annual Rate
Nov-13
Estimate of Current Average Annual
Demand
III. Housing
13 Source: National Association of Realtors.
Despite the Run-Up in Mortgage Rates, Home Prices Remain Affordable…
60
80
100
120
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180
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220
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80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Jan-71 Jan-81 Jan-91 Jan-01 Jan-11
Composite Housing Affordability IndexIndex (Median Income = Qualifying Income = 100)
Oct-13
More Affordable
Less Affordable
III. Housing
14 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association; Freddie Mac.
…But Higher Rates Have Dampened Refinancing Activity
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3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13
Mortgage Rates and Refinancing ApplicationsPercent Index (3/16/90=100)
Refinancing Applications(Right Scale)
30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
(Left Scale)
Dec. 12-13
III. Housing
15
Household Debt Service Payments are At Lowest on Record
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9
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11
12
13
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15
1980:Q1 1990:Q1 2000:Q1 2010:Q1
Household Debt Service RatioPercent of Disposable Income
2013:Q3
Note: Reflects estimated payments on mortgage and consumer debt. Source: Federal Reserve Board.
III. Housing
16
The U.S. is Now Projected to Produce More Natural Gas and Total Liquid Fuels than Russia and Saudi Arabia
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
U.S., Russia, and Saudi Arabia Liquid Fuelsand Natural Gas Production, 2008-2013 (est.)
Quadrillion British Thermal Units
Liquid Fuels
Natural Gas
U.S.
Russia
Saudi Arabia
Source: Energy Information Administration.
IV. Energy
17 Source: Energy Information Administration.
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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Imports (4-Week Moving Average)
Domestic Production(4-Week Moving Average)
Week Ended12/13/2013
Crude Oil Production & ImportsMil lions ofBarrels Per Day
Domestic Oil Production Has Exceeded Imports For First Time Since 1995
IV. Energy
18
Recent Years of Health Care Cost Growth Are Lowest On Record
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1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Real Per Capita Growth in National Health ExpendituresPercent
2013*
*Data for 2012 and 2013 are projections. Source: CEA calculations based on data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. V. Health Care
*Data for 2012 and 2013 are projections. Source: CEA calculations based on data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Private Insurance Medicare Medicaid
2000-20072007-20102010-2013
Real Per Enrollee Growth in Health Spending by PayerAverage Annual Growth Rate
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Health Care Cost Slowdown is Broad-Based
V. Health Care
20 Source: Office of Management and Budget; Congressional Budget Office.
The Budget Deficit Has Fallen Rapidly – the President’s Proposals Would Stabilize Debt as a Percentage of GDP Over The Next 10 Years
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2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
Federal Budget DeficitPercent of GDP (Fiscal Year)
CBO's Current Law Baseline(May 2013)
CBO's Estimate of Administration's FY 2014 Budget (May 2013)
Actual
VI. Fiscal Situation
21 Source: Office of Management and Budget; Congressional Budget Office.
The Decline in the Deficit Since FY2009 Represents the Largest Four-Year Improvement Since the Demobilization from WWII
5.7
3.73.2
2.7
0
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2
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2009-2013 1996-2000 1992-1996 1983-1987
Largest Post-War Four-Year Deficit ReductionsPercent of GDP (Fiscal Year)
VI. Fiscal Situation
22
Slowing Cost Growth Has Contributed to Lower Cost Estimates for Medicare and Medicaid
4.5
4.8
5.0
5.3
5.5
5.8
6.0
6.3
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Percent of GDPRecent CBO Projections of Medicare and Medicaid Outlays
Aug-10 Aug-11
Aug-12
May-13
Source: Congressional Budget Office.
VI. Fiscal Situation