Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75...

52
The State of the Commercial Real Estate Industry: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook © Copyright 2011 CoStar Realty Information, Inc. No reproduction or distribution without permission. The following information includes projections and analyses that are based on various assumptions by CoStar concerning future events and circumstances, as well as historical and current data maintained in CoStar‟s database, obtained from public sources or provided by proprietary sources. Actual results may vary materially from the projections presented. The information in this presentation speaks only as of the date(s) referenced and is provided „as is‟. CoStar expressly disclaims any guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, including those of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. You should not construe any of the information herein as investment, tax, accounting or legal advice. 1331 L Street, NW, Washington, DC 20005, USA • (800) 204-5960 • www.costar.com • NASDAQ: CSGP

Transcript of Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75...

Page 1: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

The State of the Commercial Real Estate Industry:

Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Realty Information, Inc. No reproduction or distribution without permission.

The following information includes projections and analyses that are based on various assumptions by CoStar concerning

future events and circumstances, as well as historical and current data maintained in CoStar‟s database, obtained from

public sources or provided by proprietary sources. Actual results may vary materially from the projections presented.

The information in this presentation speaks only as of the date(s) referenced and is provided „as is‟. CoStar expressly

disclaims any guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, including those of merchantability and fitness for a

particular purpose. You should not construe any of the information herein as investment, tax, accounting or legal advice.

1331 L Street, NW, Washington, DC 20005, USA • (800) 204-5960 • www.costar.com • NASDAQ: CSGP

Page 2: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

Today

The Economy

Leasing Market Review & Outlook

New Research Spotlight

The Danger Zone

The Capital Markets and Sales Trends

Summary and Q&A

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

Page 3: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

Economy

Page 4: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

Recent Weakness Is Entirely Trade-

Related

3/31/2006

6/30/2006

9/30/2006

12/31/2006

3/31/2007

6/30/2007

9/30/2007

12/31/2007

3/31/2008

Source: Moody's Analytics

(15%)

(10%)

(5%)

0%

5%

10%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Domestic Spending Inventories Trade GDP

Co

ntr

ibu

tio

ns to

GD

P G

row

th© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

Page 5: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

Asset Prices Drive Consumption

12/31/2005

3/31/2006

6/30/2006

9/30/2006

12/31/2006

3/31/2007

6/30/2007

9/30/2007

12/31/2007

3/31/2008

Source: Moody's Analytics

(7%)

(6%)

(5%)

(4%)

(3%)

(2%)

(1%)

0%

1%

2%

3%

(7)

(6)

(5)

(4)

(3)

(2)

(1)

0

1

2

3

2007 2008 2009 2010

Real Estate Financial Assets Net Worth Real Consumption Growth

Nominal Net Worth Change ($ Trillions) Real Consumption Growth

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

Page 6: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

Asset Prices Drive Consumption0

1

2

3

4

30-Sep-54

31-Dec-54

31-Mar-55

30-Jun-55

30-Sep-55

31-Dec-55

31-Mar-56

30-Jun-56

30-Sep-56

Source: Moody's Analytics

(25%)

(20%)

(15%)

(10%)

(5%)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

(50%)

(40%)

(30%)

(20%)

(10%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

Corporate Profits Business Investment In Equipment Software

Corporate Profits Business Investment

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

Page 7: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

Leading Indicators Still Good

12/31/2010

11/30/2010

10/31/2010

9/30/2010

8/31/2010

7/31/2010

6/30/2010

5/31/2010

Source: Moody‟s Analytics

(30%)

(20%)

(10%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

(5%)

(4%)

(3%)

(2%)

(1%)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Employment and Hours Worked Temp Employment

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

Page 8: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

Imbalances Have Been Purged

31-Mar-75

30-Jun-75

30-Sep-75

31-Dec-75

31-Mar-76

30-Jun-76

30-Sep-76

31-Dec-76

31-Mar-77

Source: Moody's Analytics

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Median Home Price/Income Average Home Price/Income

Savings Rate Average Savings Rate

Median Home Price / Income Ratio Personal Savings Rate

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

Page 9: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

Consumers Are Not Stretched … Until

Interest Rates Rise

Source: Moody‟s Analytics

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

Debt Debt Service Average Financial Obligations Average

Debt as % of Total Household Assets Debt Service and Financial Obligations

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

Page 10: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

Retail Sales

Source: Moody‟s Analytics

200,000

220,000

240,000

260,000

280,000

300,000

320,000

340,000

360,000

380,000

400,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

Page 11: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

3.2 Million New Jobs in 2011!

2006 q1

2006 q2

2006 q3

2006 q4

2007 q1

2007 q2

2007 q3

2007 q4

Source: Moody's Analytics

(2,500)

(2,000)

(1,500)

(1,000)

(500)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2007q1

2007q3

2008q1

2008q3

2009q1

2009q3

2010q1

2010q3

2011q1

2011q3

2012q1

2012q3

2013q1

2013q3

2014q1

2014q3

2015q1

2015q3

Moody's New Forecast Moody's Old Forecast Historical Job Growth

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

Page 12: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

Tech, Energy, And Demographics Will

Drive Performance

Source: Moody's Analytics

Atlanta

Austin

Boston

Charlotte

Chicago

Cincinnati

Cleveland

Dallas - Fort Worth

Denver

Detroit

Houston

Indianapolis

Inland Empire

Las Vegas

Long Island

Los Angeles

Miami

Minneapolis

New YorkOrange County

Orlando

Palm Beach County

Philadelphia

Phoenix

Portland

Raleigh

San Antonio

San Diego

San Francisco

San Jose

Seattle

Washington - NoVA - MD

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5%

East MidWestSouth West Other

2011 Job Growth

2012-15 Job Growth

Weak Near Term,Strong Long Term

Strong Near Term,Strong Long Term

Weak Near Term,Weak Long Term

Strong Near Term,Weak Long Term

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

nminer
Highlight
Page 13: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

The U.S. Fiscal Situation Is A Mess

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Canada

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Iceland

Ireland

Israel

Italy

Japan

Portugal

Spain

Sweden

UK

U.S.

Average

Source: IMF

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Canada

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hong Kong

Iceland

Ireland

Israel

Italy

Japan

Netherlands

New Zealand

Portugal

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

UKU.S.

(60%)

(40%)

(20%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

(5%) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Government Deficit as a % of GDP (2010)

Government Debt as a % of GDP (2010)

Danger Zone!

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

Page 14: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

Foreign Exposures To Greece, Ireland,

Portugal, And Spain, By Bank Nationality

Source: Bank of International Settlements, December 2010 Quarterly Review . Data as of 2010Q2

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Germany France UnitedKingdom

UnitedStates

Other EuroArea

Spain Rest ofWorld

Italy Japan

Total Exposure ($, Billions)

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

Page 15: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

Leasing Fundamentals

Page 16: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

U.S. Leasing Activity by Quarter

Source: CoStar Group

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

2010 4q2009 4q2008 4q2007 4q2006 4q2005 4q

Millio

ns

of S

qu

are

Fe

et

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

Page 17: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

Net Absorption

Date

12/31/2010

9/30/2010

6/30/2010

3/31/2010

12/31/2009

9/30/2009

6/30/2009

3/31/2009

12/31/2008

9/30/2008

6/30/2008

3/31/2008

12/31/2007

9/30/2007

Source: CoStar Group

29

11 10

(17)(14)

(33)

(61)

(49)

(19)

44

(39)

70

49 55

47 53

41

73

63 58 60

37

63 61 58

50

32 28

21 17

6

21

4 9

(12)

13

(17)

(6)

(30)

76

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 4q2009 4q2008 4q2007 4q2006 4q2005 4q2004 4q2003 4q2002 4q2001 4q

Millio

ns

of S

qu

are

Fe

et

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

Page 18: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

2010 Net Absorption in 20 Largest Markets

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

Millions of Square Feet

Source: CoStar Group

10.7

9.8

5.0

5.0

3.3

2.6

1.9

0.6

0.6

0.2

(0.4)

(0.8)

(0.9)

(1.2)

(1.5)

(1.7)

(2.4)

(3.0)

(3.3)

(3.7)

(5) 0 5 10 15

Inland Empire (California)

Philadelphia

Houston

South Florida

Northern New Jersey

Cincinnati

Minneapolis

Chicago

Dallas/Ft Worth

Boston

Orange (California)

Seattle/Puget Sound

West Michigan

Milwaukee

Long Island (New York)

Cleveland

San Francisco Bay Area

Atlanta

Los Angeles

Detroit

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

Page 19: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

Deliveries as % of Inventory

Source: CoStar Group

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

20132008200420001996199219881984198019761972196819641960

Historical Deliveries Future Deliveries Hist Average

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

Page 20: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

Construction Starts

Date

12/31/2010

9/30/2010

6/30/2010

3/31/2010

12/31/2009

9/30/2009

6/30/2009

3/31/2009

12/31/2008

9/30/2008

6/30/2008

3/31/2008

12/31/2007

9/30/2007

Source: CoStar Group

324

8

4

76

1412

24

37

44

34

49

54

57

38

56

59

5150

59

64

4144

5150

41

32

39

43

31

25

3033

34

21

4141

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2010 4q2009 4q2008 4q2007 4q2006 4q2005 4q2004 4q2003 4q2002 4q2001 4q

Millio

ns

of S

qu

are

Fe

et

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

Page 21: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

Under Construction as % of Inventory in

20 Largest Markets

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

Millions of Square Feet

Source: CoStar Group

0.5%

0.2%

0.2%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%

Inland Empire (California)

West Michigan

Philadelphia

Milwaukee

Los Angeles

Cincinnati

Northern New Jersey

Detroit

San Francisco Bay Area

Seattle/Puget Sound

Houston

Boston

South Florida

Cleveland

Chicago

Long Island (New York)

Minneapolis

Dallas/Ft Worth

Atlanta

Orange (California)

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

Page 22: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

Vacancy and Availability Rates

Month

12/31/2010

9/30/2010

6/30/2010

3/31/2010

12/31/2009

9/30/2009

6/30/2009

3/31/2009

12/31/2008

9/30/2008

6/30/2008

3/31/2008

12/31/2007

9/30/2007

Source: CoStar Group

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

15%

16%

2010 4q2010 2q2009 4q2009 2q2008 4q2008 2q2007 4q2007 2q2006 4q2006 2q2005 4q

Vacancy Rate Availability Rate

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

Page 23: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

Quarterly Change in Vacancy Rate

12/31/2010

9/30/2010

6/30/2010

3/31/2010

12/31/2009

9/30/2009

6/30/2009

3/31/2009

12/31/2008

9/30/2008

6/30/2008

3/31/2008

12/31/2007

9/30/2007

Source: CoStar Group

-0.3%

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

2010 4q2009 4q2008 4q2007 4q2006 4q2005 4q2004 4q2003 4q2002 4q2001 4q

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

Page 24: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

Percentage of Submarkets With Declining

Vacancy Rates

12/31/2010

9/30/2010

6/30/2010

3/31/2010

12/31/2009

9/30/2009

6/30/2009

3/31/2009

12/31/2008

9/30/2008

6/30/2008

3/31/2008

12/31/2007

9/30/2007

Source: CoStar Group

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

2010 4q2009 4q2008 4q2007 4q2006 4q2005 4q2004 4q2003 4q2002 4q2001 4q

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

Page 25: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

Current Vacancy Rates in 20 Largest

MarketsRank

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

Source: CoStar Group

5.1%

5.1%

6.2%

6.6%

6.6%

7.8%

8.4%

8.4%

8.9%

9.3%

9.4%

9.5%

9.7%

10.4%

10.5%

11.6%

11.8%

12.2%

14.1%

14.5%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

Los Angeles

Long Island (New York)

Houston

Orange (California)

Minneapolis

Milwaukee

Seattle/Puget Sound

West Michigan

Cincinnati

Northern New Jersey

South Florida

Cleveland

Philadelphia

San Francisco Bay Area

Inland Empire…

Boston

Dallas/Ft Worth

Chicago

Atlanta

Detroit

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

Page 26: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

Quarter-Over-Quarter Change in

Occupancy Rates in 20 Largest MarketsRank

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

Source: CoStar Group

1.9%

1.0%

0.9%

0.9%

0.6%

0.6%

0.3%

0.1%

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.2%

-0.3%

-0.3%

-0.4%

-0.4%

-0.4%

-0.5%

-0.5%

-0.7%

-0.8%

-1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%

Inland Empire (California)

South Florida

Cincinnati

Philadelphia

Minneapolis

Houston

Northern New Jersey

Boston

Chicago

Dallas/Ft Worth

West Michigan

Orange (California)

Los Angeles

Cleveland

Seattle/Puget Sound

Milwaukee

Long Island (New York)

San Francisco Bay Area

Detroit

Atlanta

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

Page 27: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

Vacancy Forecast

Date

12/31/2014

9/30/2014

6/30/2014

3/31/2014

12/31/2013

9/30/2013

6/30/2013

3/31/2013

12/31/2012

9/30/2012

6/30/2012

3/31/2012

12/31/2011

9/30/2011

Source: CoStar Group

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

100

2014 4q2013 4q2012 4q2011 4q2010 4q2009 4q2008 4q2007 4q2006 4q2005 4q

Va

ca

ncy R

ate

Ab

so

rpti

on

& D

elive

rie

s in

Millio

ns

Sq

ft

Deliveries Absorption Vacancy Rate

Forecast

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

Page 28: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

Rent Forecast

Date

12/31/2014

9/30/2014

6/30/2014

3/31/2014

12/31/2013

9/30/2013

6/30/2013

3/31/2013

12/31/2012

9/30/2012

6/30/2012

3/31/2012

12/31/2011

9/30/2011

Source: CoStar Group

(2.0)

(1.5)

(1.0)

(0.5)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2014 4q2013 4q2012 4q2011 4q2010 4q2009 4q2008 4q2007 4q2006 4q

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Po

int C

ha

ng

e in

Oc

cu

pa

ncy R

ate A

nn

ua

l Pe

rce

nt C

ha

ng

e in

Re

nt

Change in Rent Change in Occupancy

Forecast

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

Page 29: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

Research Spotlight

Page 30: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

Vacancies Are Falling Fast in

New Sheds

PORTINDITAMPMEMPEASTKANSLONGCHARSTLOCLEVSEATBOSTPHOECOLUDETRCINCMIAMHOUSINLALOSAATLADALLNORTPHILCHIC

Source: Costar. Markets are ordered by size.

PortlandIndianapolis

Tampa/St PetersburgMemphis

East Bay/OaklandKansas City

Long Island (New York)

CharlotteSt. Louis

ClevelandSeattle/Puget Sound

BostonPhoenix

ColumbusDetroit

Cincinnati/DaytonSouth Florida

Houston

Inland Empire (California)

Los AngelesAtlanta

Dallas/Ft WorthNorthern New Jersey

PhiladelphiaChicago

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

Vacancy Rate, 12/31/2009 to 12/31/20100 to 5 5 to 15 Greater than 15

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

nminer
Highlight
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First Glimmers of Rent Growth in

Big Boxes

TAMPCHARKANSLONGPHOEBOSTDETRINLAMEMPPHILATLAMIAMDALLCINCNORTCHICCOLUEASTINDISEATCLEVLOSAHOUSSTLOPORT

Source: Costar. Markets are ordered by rent grow th in w arehouses greater than 250,000 SF.(10%) (5%) 0% 5% 10%

Tampa/St Petersburg

Kansas City

Phoenix

Detroit

Memphis

Atlanta

Dallas/Ft Worth

Northern New Jersey

Columbus

Indianapolis

Cleveland

Houston

Portland

greater than 250,000 less than 250,000

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

nminer
Highlight
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Majority of Tenants Concentrated in a

Few Industries

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Industrial Tenant Concentration Average SF Occupied

Source: CoStar GroupIncludes manufacturing, warehouse/distribution, and flex/R&D

As of 10Q3

Sector Concentration of Industrial Tenants by SF Occupied* Average Tenant Size (SF)

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

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Inland Empire –

Where They Grow 'em Big

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Industrial Tenant Concentration Average SF Occupied

Source: CoStar GroupIncludes manufacturing, warehouse/distribution, and flex/R&D

As of 10Q3

Sector Concentration of Industrial Tenants by SF Occupied* Average Tenant Size (SF)

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

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Made in the OC

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Industrial Tenant Concentration Average SF Occupied

Source: CoStar GroupIncludes manufacturing, warehouse/distribution, and flex/R&D

As of 10Q3

Sector Concentration of Industrial Tenants by SF Occupied* Average Tenant Size (SF)

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

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Sector Concentration by

Industrial Market

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

National Average

Atlanta

Chicago

Columbus

Dallas - Fort Worth

Indianapolis

Inland Empire

Los Angeles

Northern New Jersey

MemphisSt. Louis

Phoenix

Seattle - Puget Sound

Orange (California)

South Florida

Tampa - St. Petersburg

Houston

Philadelphia

New York City

Manufacturing Retailers/Wholesalers Transportation

All Others National Average - Manufacturing National Average - Retailers/Wholesalers

National Average - Transportation National Average - All OthersSource: CoStar Group

Includes manufacturing, warehouse/distribution, and flex/R&D

As of 10Q3

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

nminer
Highlight
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© Copyright 2010 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Senior Director, Research & Analytics© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, and Shaw Lupton

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© Copyright 2010 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Andrew Florance, President and CEO

What If It’s A Longer Slog Back?

1999Q3

1999Q4

2000Q1

2000Q2

2000Q3

2000Q4

2001Q1

2001Q2

2001Q3

2001Q4

2002Q1

2002Q2

2002Q3

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

0

200

400

600

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Av

era

ge

Mo

nth

ly J

ob

Ch

an

ge

(0

00

s)

Below-trend Long-term Growth Scenario Base Case

Page 38: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

Vacancies Could Go Higher…

3/31/1982

6/30/1982

9/30/1982

12/31/1982

3/31/1983

6/30/1983

9/30/1983

12/31/1983

3/31/1984

6/30/1984

9/30/1984

12/31/1984

3/31/1985

6/30/1985

9/30/1985

12/31/1985

3/31/1986

6/30/1986

9/30/1986

12/31/1986

3/31/1987

6/30/1987

9/30/1987

12/31/1987

3/31/1988

6/30/1988

9/30/1988

12/31/1988

3/31/1989

6/30/1989

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

(0.6%)

(0.4%)

(0.2%)

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Quarterly Change in Demand Quarterly Change in Supply

Delayed Recovery, Slow Growth Scenario Vacancy Rate

Quarterly Change in Supply / Demand Vacancy Rate

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

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Capital Markets and Sales

Page 40: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

Change in CRE Debt Outstanding\\ppr3\common\Big Book\Current Charts\Admin\CapMarkets.xls

Year

12/31/2010

12/31/2009

12/31/2008

12/31/2007

12/31/2006

12/31/2005

12/31/2004

12/31/2003

12/31/2002

12/31/2001

12/31/2000

12/31/1999

12/31/1998

12/31/1997

Source: Federal Reserve

(150)

(100)

(50)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Life Insurers and Pension Funds Depository Institutions CMBS

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

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Bank Failures Driven by CRE

Source:

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2008 2009 2010

CRE to Total Assets (%)

Source: FDIC

Note: 2010 Data is through the first half of 2010.

Page 42: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

REIT Capital Offerings

P:\Big Book\Current Charts\Capmkts\REITs.xls

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

Source: NAREIT

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

201020082006200420022000199819961994199219901988

IPOs Secondary Equity Unsecured Debt Secured Debt

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

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Select Top Sales Fourth Quarter 2010

Source:

ProLogis Portfolio182 buildings in 19 statesBuyer: BlackstonePrice: $1,010,000,000

CB Richard Ellis Investors Portfolio6 buildings in CABuyer: Alere Property Group Price: $208,765,310

Mira Loma Distribution Center 3 buildings in CASeller: Pacific Newport PropertiesBuyer: LBA Realty Price: $85,250,000

Exeter Portfolio 17 properties in FL, TN, PA, KY, OHBuyer: Blackstone Price: $200,000,000

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

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Cap Rates

Month

12/31/2010

9/30/2010

6/30/2010

3/31/2010

12/31/2009

9/30/2009

6/30/2009

3/31/2009

12/31/2008

9/30/2008

6/30/2008

3/31/2008

12/31/2007

9/30/2007

Source: CoStar Group

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

20104q

20094q

20084q

20074q

20064q

20054q

20044q

20034q

20024q

20014q

20004q

19994q

19984q

19974q

19964q

19954q

Average Cap Rate Weighted Average Cap Rate

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

Page 45: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

CoStar's Quarterly Repeat Sale Index

Month12/31/2010

9/30/2010

6/30/2010

3/31/2010

12/31/2009

9/30/2009

6/30/2009

3/31/2009

12/31/2008

9/30/2008

6/30/2008

3/31/2008

12/31/2007

9/30/2007

Source: CoStar Group

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Case Shiller 10-City Composite CoStar U.S. Composite CoStar U.S. Industrial 100

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

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Year-Over-Year Change in CoStar's

Monthly Repeat Sale Index

12/31/2010

11/30/2010

10/31/2010

9/30/2010

8/31/2010

7/31/2010

6/30/2010

5/31/2010

4/30/2010

3/31/2010

2/28/2010

1/31/2010

12/31/2009

11/30/2009

Source: CoStar Group

-0.35

-0.25

-0.15

-0.05

0.05

0.15

0.25

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

CoStar Investment Grade CoStar General Commercial Case Shiller 10-City Composite

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

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Number of CoStar Repeat Sale Sub-

Indices Going Up in Value

12/31/2010

9/30/2010

6/30/2010

3/31/2010

12/31/2009

9/30/2009

6/30/2009

3/31/2009

12/31/2008

9/30/2008

6/30/2008

3/31/2008

12/31/2007

9/30/2007

Source: CoStar Group

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

1998 1999 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009 2010

Number of Sub-Indices Going Up in Value CoStar U.S. Composite Index

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

Page 48: Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75 30-Sep-75 31-Dec-75 31-Mar-76 30-Jun-76 30-Sep-76 31-Dec-76 31-Mar-77 Source: Moody's Analytics

Year-Over-Year Change in CoStar's

Repeat Sale Indices

Indices

Top 10 Office Metros

Midwest Multifamily

Northeast Retail

Midwest Retail

Northeast Multifamily

South Office

Northeast Office

Northeast Composite

Northeast Industrial

South Retail

Top 10 Multifamily Metros

U.S. Retail

U.S. Investment Grade

Source: CoStar Group

34%11%

6%5%

4%3%3%

2%-1%

-2%-2%

-4%-5%

-6%-6%

-6%-6%

-7%-7%-7%-7%-8%-8%

-8%-8%

-9%-11%

-12%-15%

-20%-23%

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Top 10 Office MetrosMidwest Multifamily

Northeast RetailMidwest Retail

Northeast MultifamilySouth Office

Northeast OfficeNortheast Composite

Northeast IndustrialSouth Retail

Top 10 Multifamily MetrosU.S. Retail

U.S. Investment GradeTop 10 Retail MetrosMidwest Composite

U.S. MultifamilyU.S. Industrial

U.S. OfficeWest Multifamily

U.S. General CommercialU.S. CompositeWest Industrial

Midwest IndustrialSouth Industrial

West OfficeSouth CompositeWest CompositeSouth Multifamily

Top 10 Industrial MetrosWest Retail

Midwest Office

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

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Average Year-to-Date Price/SF in

20 Largest Markets

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

Source: CoStar Group

$105

$105

$94

$81

$65

$62

$58

$56

$50

$46

$46

$45

$43

$42

$37

$34

$30

$30

$27

$24

$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120

Orange (California)

Long Island (New York)

Los Angeles

Seattle/Puget Sound

San Francisco Bay Area

South Florida

Northern New Jersey

Inland Empire (California)

Boston

Houston

Philadelphia

Minneapolis

Chicago

Dallas/Ft Worth

Atlanta

Milwaukee

Cleveland

Cincinnati

Detroit

West Michigan

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

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Distressed vs. Non-Distressed

Sales Volume

Month

12/31/2010

9/30/2010

6/30/2010

3/31/2010

12/31/2009

9/30/2009

6/30/2009

3/31/2009

12/31/2008

9/30/2008

6/30/2008

3/31/2008

12/31/2007

9/30/2007

Source: CoStar Group

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Non Distressed Sales Distressed Sales Distressed %

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

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Distressed Sales Volume by Property Type

Month

12/31/2010

9/30/2010

6/30/2010

3/31/2010

12/31/2009

9/30/2009

6/30/2009

3/31/2009

12/31/2008

9/30/2008

6/30/2008

3/31/2008

12/31/2007

9/30/2007

Source: CoStar Group

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Office Industrial Retail Multifamily Hospitality

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton

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Year-to-Date Net Buying by Investor Type

Source: CoStar Group

-$8,000

-$6,000

-$4,000

-$2,000

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

REIT/PublicPrivate EquityInstitutionalPrivateUser

Millio

ns

of D

olla

rs

Bought Sold Net Purchases

© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton