Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75...
Transcript of Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook...Imbalances Have Been Purged 31-Mar-75 30-Jun-75...
The State of the Commercial Real Estate Industry:
Year-End 2010 Industrial Review & Outlook
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Realty Information, Inc. No reproduction or distribution without permission.
The following information includes projections and analyses that are based on various assumptions by CoStar concerning
future events and circumstances, as well as historical and current data maintained in CoStar‟s database, obtained from
public sources or provided by proprietary sources. Actual results may vary materially from the projections presented.
The information in this presentation speaks only as of the date(s) referenced and is provided „as is‟. CoStar expressly
disclaims any guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, including those of merchantability and fitness for a
particular purpose. You should not construe any of the information herein as investment, tax, accounting or legal advice.
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Today
The Economy
Leasing Market Review & Outlook
New Research Spotlight
The Danger Zone
The Capital Markets and Sales Trends
Summary and Q&A
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Economy
Recent Weakness Is Entirely Trade-
Related
3/31/2006
6/30/2006
9/30/2006
12/31/2006
3/31/2007
6/30/2007
9/30/2007
12/31/2007
3/31/2008
Source: Moody's Analytics
(15%)
(10%)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Domestic Spending Inventories Trade GDP
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
ns to
GD
P G
row
th© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Asset Prices Drive Consumption
12/31/2005
3/31/2006
6/30/2006
9/30/2006
12/31/2006
3/31/2007
6/30/2007
9/30/2007
12/31/2007
3/31/2008
Source: Moody's Analytics
(7%)
(6%)
(5%)
(4%)
(3%)
(2%)
(1%)
0%
1%
2%
3%
(7)
(6)
(5)
(4)
(3)
(2)
(1)
0
1
2
3
2007 2008 2009 2010
Real Estate Financial Assets Net Worth Real Consumption Growth
Nominal Net Worth Change ($ Trillions) Real Consumption Growth
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Asset Prices Drive Consumption0
1
2
3
4
30-Sep-54
31-Dec-54
31-Mar-55
30-Jun-55
30-Sep-55
31-Dec-55
31-Mar-56
30-Jun-56
30-Sep-56
Source: Moody's Analytics
(25%)
(20%)
(15%)
(10%)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
(50%)
(40%)
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
Corporate Profits Business Investment In Equipment Software
Corporate Profits Business Investment
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Leading Indicators Still Good
12/31/2010
11/30/2010
10/31/2010
9/30/2010
8/31/2010
7/31/2010
6/30/2010
5/31/2010
Source: Moody‟s Analytics
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
(5%)
(4%)
(3%)
(2%)
(1%)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Employment and Hours Worked Temp Employment
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Imbalances Have Been Purged
31-Mar-75
30-Jun-75
30-Sep-75
31-Dec-75
31-Mar-76
30-Jun-76
30-Sep-76
31-Dec-76
31-Mar-77
Source: Moody's Analytics
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Median Home Price/Income Average Home Price/Income
Savings Rate Average Savings Rate
Median Home Price / Income Ratio Personal Savings Rate
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Consumers Are Not Stretched … Until
Interest Rates Rise
Source: Moody‟s Analytics
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Debt Debt Service Average Financial Obligations Average
Debt as % of Total Household Assets Debt Service and Financial Obligations
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Retail Sales
Source: Moody‟s Analytics
200,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
280,000
300,000
320,000
340,000
360,000
380,000
400,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
3.2 Million New Jobs in 2011!
2006 q1
2006 q2
2006 q3
2006 q4
2007 q1
2007 q2
2007 q3
2007 q4
Source: Moody's Analytics
(2,500)
(2,000)
(1,500)
(1,000)
(500)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2007q1
2007q3
2008q1
2008q3
2009q1
2009q3
2010q1
2010q3
2011q1
2011q3
2012q1
2012q3
2013q1
2013q3
2014q1
2014q3
2015q1
2015q3
Moody's New Forecast Moody's Old Forecast Historical Job Growth
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Tech, Energy, And Demographics Will
Drive Performance
Source: Moody's Analytics
Atlanta
Austin
Boston
Charlotte
Chicago
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Dallas - Fort Worth
Denver
Detroit
Houston
Indianapolis
Inland Empire
Las Vegas
Long Island
Los Angeles
Miami
Minneapolis
New YorkOrange County
Orlando
Palm Beach County
Philadelphia
Phoenix
Portland
Raleigh
San Antonio
San Diego
San Francisco
San Jose
Seattle
Washington - NoVA - MD
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5%
East MidWestSouth West Other
2011 Job Growth
2012-15 Job Growth
Weak Near Term,Strong Long Term
Strong Near Term,Strong Long Term
Weak Near Term,Weak Long Term
Strong Near Term,Weak Long Term
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
The U.S. Fiscal Situation Is A Mess
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Japan
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
UK
U.S.
Average
Source: IMF
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hong Kong
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Japan
Netherlands
New Zealand
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
UKU.S.
(60%)
(40%)
(20%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
(5%) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Government Deficit as a % of GDP (2010)
Government Debt as a % of GDP (2010)
Danger Zone!
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Foreign Exposures To Greece, Ireland,
Portugal, And Spain, By Bank Nationality
Source: Bank of International Settlements, December 2010 Quarterly Review . Data as of 2010Q2
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Germany France UnitedKingdom
UnitedStates
Other EuroArea
Spain Rest ofWorld
Italy Japan
Total Exposure ($, Billions)
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Leasing Fundamentals
U.S. Leasing Activity by Quarter
Source: CoStar Group
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
2010 4q2009 4q2008 4q2007 4q2006 4q2005 4q
Millio
ns
of S
qu
are
Fe
et
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Net Absorption
Date
12/31/2010
9/30/2010
6/30/2010
3/31/2010
12/31/2009
9/30/2009
6/30/2009
3/31/2009
12/31/2008
9/30/2008
6/30/2008
3/31/2008
12/31/2007
9/30/2007
Source: CoStar Group
29
11 10
(17)(14)
(33)
(61)
(49)
(19)
44
(39)
70
49 55
47 53
41
73
63 58 60
37
63 61 58
50
32 28
21 17
6
21
4 9
(12)
13
(17)
(6)
(30)
76
(80)
(60)
(40)
(20)
0
20
40
60
80
100
2010 4q2009 4q2008 4q2007 4q2006 4q2005 4q2004 4q2003 4q2002 4q2001 4q
Millio
ns
of S
qu
are
Fe
et
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
2010 Net Absorption in 20 Largest Markets
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Millions of Square Feet
Source: CoStar Group
10.7
9.8
5.0
5.0
3.3
2.6
1.9
0.6
0.6
0.2
(0.4)
(0.8)
(0.9)
(1.2)
(1.5)
(1.7)
(2.4)
(3.0)
(3.3)
(3.7)
(5) 0 5 10 15
Inland Empire (California)
Philadelphia
Houston
South Florida
Northern New Jersey
Cincinnati
Minneapolis
Chicago
Dallas/Ft Worth
Boston
Orange (California)
Seattle/Puget Sound
West Michigan
Milwaukee
Long Island (New York)
Cleveland
San Francisco Bay Area
Atlanta
Los Angeles
Detroit
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Deliveries as % of Inventory
Source: CoStar Group
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
20132008200420001996199219881984198019761972196819641960
Historical Deliveries Future Deliveries Hist Average
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Construction Starts
Date
12/31/2010
9/30/2010
6/30/2010
3/31/2010
12/31/2009
9/30/2009
6/30/2009
3/31/2009
12/31/2008
9/30/2008
6/30/2008
3/31/2008
12/31/2007
9/30/2007
Source: CoStar Group
324
8
4
76
1412
24
37
44
34
49
54
57
38
56
59
5150
59
64
4144
5150
41
32
39
43
31
25
3033
34
21
4141
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 4q2009 4q2008 4q2007 4q2006 4q2005 4q2004 4q2003 4q2002 4q2001 4q
Millio
ns
of S
qu
are
Fe
et
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Under Construction as % of Inventory in
20 Largest Markets
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Millions of Square Feet
Source: CoStar Group
0.5%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%
Inland Empire (California)
West Michigan
Philadelphia
Milwaukee
Los Angeles
Cincinnati
Northern New Jersey
Detroit
San Francisco Bay Area
Seattle/Puget Sound
Houston
Boston
South Florida
Cleveland
Chicago
Long Island (New York)
Minneapolis
Dallas/Ft Worth
Atlanta
Orange (California)
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Vacancy and Availability Rates
Month
12/31/2010
9/30/2010
6/30/2010
3/31/2010
12/31/2009
9/30/2009
6/30/2009
3/31/2009
12/31/2008
9/30/2008
6/30/2008
3/31/2008
12/31/2007
9/30/2007
Source: CoStar Group
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
2010 4q2010 2q2009 4q2009 2q2008 4q2008 2q2007 4q2007 2q2006 4q2006 2q2005 4q
Vacancy Rate Availability Rate
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Quarterly Change in Vacancy Rate
12/31/2010
9/30/2010
6/30/2010
3/31/2010
12/31/2009
9/30/2009
6/30/2009
3/31/2009
12/31/2008
9/30/2008
6/30/2008
3/31/2008
12/31/2007
9/30/2007
Source: CoStar Group
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
2010 4q2009 4q2008 4q2007 4q2006 4q2005 4q2004 4q2003 4q2002 4q2001 4q
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Percentage of Submarkets With Declining
Vacancy Rates
12/31/2010
9/30/2010
6/30/2010
3/31/2010
12/31/2009
9/30/2009
6/30/2009
3/31/2009
12/31/2008
9/30/2008
6/30/2008
3/31/2008
12/31/2007
9/30/2007
Source: CoStar Group
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
2010 4q2009 4q2008 4q2007 4q2006 4q2005 4q2004 4q2003 4q2002 4q2001 4q
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Current Vacancy Rates in 20 Largest
MarketsRank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Source: CoStar Group
5.1%
5.1%
6.2%
6.6%
6.6%
7.8%
8.4%
8.4%
8.9%
9.3%
9.4%
9.5%
9.7%
10.4%
10.5%
11.6%
11.8%
12.2%
14.1%
14.5%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
Los Angeles
Long Island (New York)
Houston
Orange (California)
Minneapolis
Milwaukee
Seattle/Puget Sound
West Michigan
Cincinnati
Northern New Jersey
South Florida
Cleveland
Philadelphia
San Francisco Bay Area
Inland Empire…
Boston
Dallas/Ft Worth
Chicago
Atlanta
Detroit
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Quarter-Over-Quarter Change in
Occupancy Rates in 20 Largest MarketsRank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Source: CoStar Group
1.9%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
-0.1%
-0.2%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.7%
-0.8%
-1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%
Inland Empire (California)
South Florida
Cincinnati
Philadelphia
Minneapolis
Houston
Northern New Jersey
Boston
Chicago
Dallas/Ft Worth
West Michigan
Orange (California)
Los Angeles
Cleveland
Seattle/Puget Sound
Milwaukee
Long Island (New York)
San Francisco Bay Area
Detroit
Atlanta
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Vacancy Forecast
Date
12/31/2014
9/30/2014
6/30/2014
3/31/2014
12/31/2013
9/30/2013
6/30/2013
3/31/2013
12/31/2012
9/30/2012
6/30/2012
3/31/2012
12/31/2011
9/30/2011
Source: CoStar Group
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
(80)
(60)
(40)
(20)
0
20
40
60
80
100
2014 4q2013 4q2012 4q2011 4q2010 4q2009 4q2008 4q2007 4q2006 4q2005 4q
Va
ca
ncy R
ate
Ab
so
rpti
on
& D
elive
rie
s in
Millio
ns
Sq
ft
Deliveries Absorption Vacancy Rate
Forecast
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Rent Forecast
Date
12/31/2014
9/30/2014
6/30/2014
3/31/2014
12/31/2013
9/30/2013
6/30/2013
3/31/2013
12/31/2012
9/30/2012
6/30/2012
3/31/2012
12/31/2011
9/30/2011
Source: CoStar Group
(2.0)
(1.5)
(1.0)
(0.5)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2014 4q2013 4q2012 4q2011 4q2010 4q2009 4q2008 4q2007 4q2006 4q
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Po
int C
ha
ng
e in
Oc
cu
pa
ncy R
ate A
nn
ua
l Pe
rce
nt C
ha
ng
e in
Re
nt
Change in Rent Change in Occupancy
Forecast
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Research Spotlight
Vacancies Are Falling Fast in
New Sheds
PORTINDITAMPMEMPEASTKANSLONGCHARSTLOCLEVSEATBOSTPHOECOLUDETRCINCMIAMHOUSINLALOSAATLADALLNORTPHILCHIC
Source: Costar. Markets are ordered by size.
PortlandIndianapolis
Tampa/St PetersburgMemphis
East Bay/OaklandKansas City
Long Island (New York)
CharlotteSt. Louis
ClevelandSeattle/Puget Sound
BostonPhoenix
ColumbusDetroit
Cincinnati/DaytonSouth Florida
Houston
Inland Empire (California)
Los AngelesAtlanta
Dallas/Ft WorthNorthern New Jersey
PhiladelphiaChicago
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Vacancy Rate, 12/31/2009 to 12/31/20100 to 5 5 to 15 Greater than 15
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
First Glimmers of Rent Growth in
Big Boxes
TAMPCHARKANSLONGPHOEBOSTDETRINLAMEMPPHILATLAMIAMDALLCINCNORTCHICCOLUEASTINDISEATCLEVLOSAHOUSSTLOPORT
Source: Costar. Markets are ordered by rent grow th in w arehouses greater than 250,000 SF.(10%) (5%) 0% 5% 10%
Tampa/St Petersburg
Kansas City
Phoenix
Detroit
Memphis
Atlanta
Dallas/Ft Worth
Northern New Jersey
Columbus
Indianapolis
Cleveland
Houston
Portland
greater than 250,000 less than 250,000
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Majority of Tenants Concentrated in a
Few Industries
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Industrial Tenant Concentration Average SF Occupied
Source: CoStar GroupIncludes manufacturing, warehouse/distribution, and flex/R&D
As of 10Q3
Sector Concentration of Industrial Tenants by SF Occupied* Average Tenant Size (SF)
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Inland Empire –
Where They Grow 'em Big
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Industrial Tenant Concentration Average SF Occupied
Source: CoStar GroupIncludes manufacturing, warehouse/distribution, and flex/R&D
As of 10Q3
Sector Concentration of Industrial Tenants by SF Occupied* Average Tenant Size (SF)
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Made in the OC
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Industrial Tenant Concentration Average SF Occupied
Source: CoStar GroupIncludes manufacturing, warehouse/distribution, and flex/R&D
As of 10Q3
Sector Concentration of Industrial Tenants by SF Occupied* Average Tenant Size (SF)
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Sector Concentration by
Industrial Market
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
National Average
Atlanta
Chicago
Columbus
Dallas - Fort Worth
Indianapolis
Inland Empire
Los Angeles
Northern New Jersey
MemphisSt. Louis
Phoenix
Seattle - Puget Sound
Orange (California)
South Florida
Tampa - St. Petersburg
Houston
Philadelphia
New York City
Manufacturing Retailers/Wholesalers Transportation
All Others National Average - Manufacturing National Average - Retailers/Wholesalers
National Average - Transportation National Average - All OthersSource: CoStar Group
Includes manufacturing, warehouse/distribution, and flex/R&D
As of 10Q3
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
© Copyright 2010 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Senior Director, Research & Analytics© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, and Shaw Lupton
© Copyright 2010 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Andrew Florance, President and CEO
What If It’s A Longer Slog Back?
1999Q3
1999Q4
2000Q1
2000Q2
2000Q3
2000Q4
2001Q1
2001Q2
2001Q3
2001Q4
2002Q1
2002Q2
2002Q3
(800)
(600)
(400)
(200)
0
200
400
600
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Av
era
ge
Mo
nth
ly J
ob
Ch
an
ge
(0
00
s)
Below-trend Long-term Growth Scenario Base Case
Vacancies Could Go Higher…
3/31/1982
6/30/1982
9/30/1982
12/31/1982
3/31/1983
6/30/1983
9/30/1983
12/31/1983
3/31/1984
6/30/1984
9/30/1984
12/31/1984
3/31/1985
6/30/1985
9/30/1985
12/31/1985
3/31/1986
6/30/1986
9/30/1986
12/31/1986
3/31/1987
6/30/1987
9/30/1987
12/31/1987
3/31/1988
6/30/1988
9/30/1988
12/31/1988
3/31/1989
6/30/1989
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
(0.6%)
(0.4%)
(0.2%)
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Quarterly Change in Demand Quarterly Change in Supply
Delayed Recovery, Slow Growth Scenario Vacancy Rate
Quarterly Change in Supply / Demand Vacancy Rate
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Capital Markets and Sales
Change in CRE Debt Outstanding\\ppr3\common\Big Book\Current Charts\Admin\CapMarkets.xls
Year
12/31/2010
12/31/2009
12/31/2008
12/31/2007
12/31/2006
12/31/2005
12/31/2004
12/31/2003
12/31/2002
12/31/2001
12/31/2000
12/31/1999
12/31/1998
12/31/1997
Source: Federal Reserve
(150)
(100)
(50)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Life Insurers and Pension Funds Depository Institutions CMBS
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Bank Failures Driven by CRE
Source:
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2008 2009 2010
CRE to Total Assets (%)
Source: FDIC
Note: 2010 Data is through the first half of 2010.
REIT Capital Offerings
P:\Big Book\Current Charts\Capmkts\REITs.xls
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
Source: NAREIT
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
201020082006200420022000199819961994199219901988
IPOs Secondary Equity Unsecured Debt Secured Debt
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Select Top Sales Fourth Quarter 2010
Source:
ProLogis Portfolio182 buildings in 19 statesBuyer: BlackstonePrice: $1,010,000,000
CB Richard Ellis Investors Portfolio6 buildings in CABuyer: Alere Property Group Price: $208,765,310
Mira Loma Distribution Center 3 buildings in CASeller: Pacific Newport PropertiesBuyer: LBA Realty Price: $85,250,000
Exeter Portfolio 17 properties in FL, TN, PA, KY, OHBuyer: Blackstone Price: $200,000,000
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Cap Rates
Month
12/31/2010
9/30/2010
6/30/2010
3/31/2010
12/31/2009
9/30/2009
6/30/2009
3/31/2009
12/31/2008
9/30/2008
6/30/2008
3/31/2008
12/31/2007
9/30/2007
Source: CoStar Group
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
20104q
20094q
20084q
20074q
20064q
20054q
20044q
20034q
20024q
20014q
20004q
19994q
19984q
19974q
19964q
19954q
Average Cap Rate Weighted Average Cap Rate
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
CoStar's Quarterly Repeat Sale Index
Month12/31/2010
9/30/2010
6/30/2010
3/31/2010
12/31/2009
9/30/2009
6/30/2009
3/31/2009
12/31/2008
9/30/2008
6/30/2008
3/31/2008
12/31/2007
9/30/2007
Source: CoStar Group
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Case Shiller 10-City Composite CoStar U.S. Composite CoStar U.S. Industrial 100
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Year-Over-Year Change in CoStar's
Monthly Repeat Sale Index
12/31/2010
11/30/2010
10/31/2010
9/30/2010
8/31/2010
7/31/2010
6/30/2010
5/31/2010
4/30/2010
3/31/2010
2/28/2010
1/31/2010
12/31/2009
11/30/2009
Source: CoStar Group
-0.35
-0.25
-0.15
-0.05
0.05
0.15
0.25
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
CoStar Investment Grade CoStar General Commercial Case Shiller 10-City Composite
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Number of CoStar Repeat Sale Sub-
Indices Going Up in Value
12/31/2010
9/30/2010
6/30/2010
3/31/2010
12/31/2009
9/30/2009
6/30/2009
3/31/2009
12/31/2008
9/30/2008
6/30/2008
3/31/2008
12/31/2007
9/30/2007
Source: CoStar Group
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
1998 1999 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009 2010
Number of Sub-Indices Going Up in Value CoStar U.S. Composite Index
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Year-Over-Year Change in CoStar's
Repeat Sale Indices
Indices
Top 10 Office Metros
Midwest Multifamily
Northeast Retail
Midwest Retail
Northeast Multifamily
South Office
Northeast Office
Northeast Composite
Northeast Industrial
South Retail
Top 10 Multifamily Metros
U.S. Retail
U.S. Investment Grade
Source: CoStar Group
34%11%
6%5%
4%3%3%
2%-1%
-2%-2%
-4%-5%
-6%-6%
-6%-6%
-7%-7%-7%-7%-8%-8%
-8%-8%
-9%-11%
-12%-15%
-20%-23%
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Top 10 Office MetrosMidwest Multifamily
Northeast RetailMidwest Retail
Northeast MultifamilySouth Office
Northeast OfficeNortheast Composite
Northeast IndustrialSouth Retail
Top 10 Multifamily MetrosU.S. Retail
U.S. Investment GradeTop 10 Retail MetrosMidwest Composite
U.S. MultifamilyU.S. Industrial
U.S. OfficeWest Multifamily
U.S. General CommercialU.S. CompositeWest Industrial
Midwest IndustrialSouth Industrial
West OfficeSouth CompositeWest CompositeSouth Multifamily
Top 10 Industrial MetrosWest Retail
Midwest Office
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Average Year-to-Date Price/SF in
20 Largest Markets
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Source: CoStar Group
$105
$105
$94
$81
$65
$62
$58
$56
$50
$46
$46
$45
$43
$42
$37
$34
$30
$30
$27
$24
$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120
Orange (California)
Long Island (New York)
Los Angeles
Seattle/Puget Sound
San Francisco Bay Area
South Florida
Northern New Jersey
Inland Empire (California)
Boston
Houston
Philadelphia
Minneapolis
Chicago
Dallas/Ft Worth
Atlanta
Milwaukee
Cleveland
Cincinnati
Detroit
West Michigan
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Distressed vs. Non-Distressed
Sales Volume
Month
12/31/2010
9/30/2010
6/30/2010
3/31/2010
12/31/2009
9/30/2009
6/30/2009
3/31/2009
12/31/2008
9/30/2008
6/30/2008
3/31/2008
12/31/2007
9/30/2007
Source: CoStar Group
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Non Distressed Sales Distressed Sales Distressed %
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Distressed Sales Volume by Property Type
Month
12/31/2010
9/30/2010
6/30/2010
3/31/2010
12/31/2009
9/30/2009
6/30/2009
3/31/2009
12/31/2008
9/30/2008
6/30/2008
3/31/2008
12/31/2007
9/30/2007
Source: CoStar Group
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Office Industrial Retail Multifamily Hospitality
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton
Year-to-Date Net Buying by Investor Type
Source: CoStar Group
-$8,000
-$6,000
-$4,000
-$2,000
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
REIT/PublicPrivate EquityInstitutionalPrivateUser
Millio
ns
of D
olla
rs
Bought Sold Net Purchases
© Copyright 2011 CoStar Group, Inc. Presented by Jay Spivey, Hans Nordby, & Shaw Lupton