Yale School of Management 1 Emerging Market Finance Lecture 1: The Big Picture By Zhiwu Chen...
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Transcript of Yale School of Management 1 Emerging Market Finance Lecture 1: The Big Picture By Zhiwu Chen...
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Yale School of Management
Emerging Market Finance
Lecture 1: The Big Picture
By Zhiwu Chen
Professor of Finance
Yale School of Management
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Yale School of Management
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Yale School of Management
Why Do Countries Differ in Wealth?
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Yale School of Management
Relationship between Average Number of Hours Worked in 1998 and Per-capita GDP in 2001
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
1300 1500 1700 1900 2100 2300
Per-capita GDP in 2001
Holland
China
U.S.
Japan
Latin America
Data source for the working hours is Angus Maddison , 2001, The World Economy : A Millennial Perspective.
Average Number of Hours Worked by the Employed in 1998
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Yale School of Management
What determines national wealth? Traditional view: physical assets (e.g., natural
resource endowments)
0. 47 0. 58 0. 781. 11
2. 34 2. 47 2. 67 2. 8
3. 63
0
1
2
3
4
China Russia India Taiwan HK Japan U.S.
Saudi Arabia Singapore
2002 per-capita GDP in units of $10,000
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Yale School of Management
What determines national wealth? physical capital or something else?
25623419
4027
10901
1273911546
0
5000
10000
15000
Countries with Least Oil& Gas Reserves
Countries with AverageOil & Gas Reserves
Countries with Most Oil& Gas Reserves
Per-Capita GDP ($)
Based on per-capita oil and natural gas reserves, 44 countries are divided into three groups. The average per-capita GDP for each country group is reported respectively for the year 1975 (in BLUE) and 2001 (in RED).
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Yale School of Management
Difference in Growth
6.14%
5.10%
4.18%
3.00%
5.00%
7.00%
储藏最少的国家 中等储藏的国家 储藏最多的国家Oil+Gas Poor Countries
Oil+Gas Avg. Countries
Oil+Gas Rich Countries
Based on per-capita oil and natural gas reserves, 44 countries are divided into three groups. The average GDP growth is reported for the 1975-2001 period
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Yale School of Management
How do we explain this?
Natural physical wealth is a “curse”?
Lower transportation costs and higher transportation capacity make resource endowments less of an advantage?
But, ……
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Yale School of ManagementLack of mass transportation means made each place’s income depend on its natural endowment,
but not any more
( )世界历年海运总容量 万吨
32 73 145 395 588 1460
9610
17100
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
18000
1470 1570 1670 1780 1820 1850 1900 1913
World’s sea-going ship capacity in 10,000’s of tons
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Yale School of ManagementTotal number of vessels departed from Europe for Asia
( )按每世纪汇总计算
770
3161
6661
0
3000
6000
9000
1500-1600 1601-1700 1701-1800
Total trips in each century
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Yale School of Management
Maybe, the ability to innovate financially also makes a difference
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Yale School of Management
What a difference financialization makes!
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Yale School of Management
A century of American Financial Revolution:Total value of all financial claims
Sources: For 1900, Goldsmith (1969), Financial Structure and Development. For post-1945, Federal Reserve Flow-of-Funds
1.0 1.8 3.5 7.623.5
52.5
128.5
0.06
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
1900 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2006
$ trillions
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Yale School of Management
American Financial Capitalism:Ratio of all financial claims to GDP
Sources: Prior to 1945, Goldsmith (1969), Financial Structure and Development. For post-1945, Federal Reserve Flow-of-Funds
0
2
4
6
8
10
1880
1929
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
1900
For each $ GDP, how many $ of financial claims floating?
Phase I Phase II: stagnation Phase III: globalization
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Yale School of Management
But, how did capitalization increase so fast?
4 primary sources of capitalization:
– Corporate assets and cashflows
– Land and real assets
– Future labor income flows
– Future government tax flows
More financialization => more capital to create wealth
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Yale School of Management
Source #1: capitalization of corporate assets & future cashflows
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
Equity mkt capitalization to GDP ratio
Sources: Federal Reserve Flow-of-Funds
Similar trend in bonds
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Yale School of Management
Source #2: more capitalization of Land and real assets
Sources: Federal Reserve Flow-of-Funds
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
Total mortgage loans outstanding to GDP ratio
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Yale School of Management
Source #3: capitalization of future labor income
Sources: Federal Reserve Flow-of-Funds
0
1000
2000
3000$billions
Consumer credit outstanding
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Yale School of Management
What pushed financial development?A 1920’s ad by Julian Goldman Stores Inc.
“Wouldn’t it be nice if Jim Jones could use some of that money now?”
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Yale School of Management
As financialization has increased in developed countries, capital flow into funds grows.
Has this capitalization trend peaked? No.
Other countries are only starting to follow.
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Yale School of Management
Puzzles
Why doesn’t every country engage in
financial innovations?
Why growth does not always translate into
stock returns?
Why capital flow differs across countries?
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Yale School of ManagementBut, you need Quality Institutions for this to be feasible. Example: Press Freedom and Service
Sector DevelopmentCountry 1990
Press Freedom RatingService Sector's Contribution to
GDP in 2002
U.S.A. 12 70.70%
Hong Kong 30 86.50%
Singapore 60 64.10%
China 89 27.50%
Press freedom rating is on a 1-100 scale, with 1 representing the freest press.
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Yale School of Management Which Countries Prosper?Per-capita GDP is expressed in terms of Purchasing Power Parities
(Source: Heritage Fountation)
-0.32%
-1.44%
0.97%
2.88%
-2.00%
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
Free Mostly Free Mostly Not Free Repressed
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Yale School of Management
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Yale School of Management
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Yale School of Management