Xtreme Continuous Change - Antifragility Strategies
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Transcript of Xtreme Continuous Change - Antifragility Strategies
from fragility --> agility
[email protected] @aspiringarc
what if xtreme continuous change is the new ‘stable state’
WARNING: work-in-progress
finding antifragility strategies
Your job (later) today?
1. Find me 2. Share a story 3. Challenge my
hypothesis
open innovation in action
My hypothesis
(what if we are wrong?)
it was a sunny spring morning in Berlin
& 250 other likeminds
Rita Gunther McGrath, Professor Columbia Business School
Rita made me question my assumptions? What if….
1.Industry isn’t stable & understandable 2. Advantages aren’t sustainable 3. Stability isn’t the stable state
What if the new normal is about
TRANSIENT COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE 1. We surf short-lived waves (get in & get out) 2. We compete in arenas (arena = market + segment
+ offer + location) 3. We accept that change is the stable state (design
for change)
If this was news to business people
Hmm!!
then IT must be in the dark
“denial is the most predictable of all human emotions”
Agenda
I started to question the wisdom of some our actions
(but before we go there)
Steve Blank, UC Berkeley Business School
Eric Ries, Entrepreneur in Residence Harvard Business School
Steve & Eric made me question the way we approach change
1. Use scientific methods & measures 2. Use structured change processes 3. Move from rationalism -> to incrementalism
Lean Change Canvas – leanchange.org
Brian Solis Altimeter Group
Brian tells us that our customers are mutating
Zero Moment Of Truth Ultimate Moment Of Truth
Brian also says experience is everything
(what else is happening)
let’s meet the 4 horsemen of the digital apocalypse
and finally disruptors
debt-ridden fragile rigid
complex
Oh wait I forgot the march of the milennials
47% by 2020
a workforce of digital problem solvers
*MYOA
What capabilities are essential for?
Are their patterns? Are their anti-patterns?
a question today…
(xcc)
the stability dilemma
In a turf war, someone always loses
dynamic competition is ‘the new normal’
Industry A
Industry B
Agenda
I started to question the wisdom of some our actions
in the end it’s all about capability
what is an antifragility architecture?
“wind extinguishes a candle
& energizes fire”
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1208.1189.pdf
V(X, fΛ, K,s`) OR
in the end your architecture either enables or constrains your business model
so what’s stopping you?
well…you need to break out of the vicious merry-go-round
BAR
PPP
FF
EAM
TIM
SD
SRP
PM
My hypothesis cont.
1. Change is the new stable state
2. Build people; provide tools 3. Assumptions aren’t knowledge
3 Takeaways
“If you want to teach people a new way of thinking, don't bother trying to teach them. Instead, give them a tool, the use of which will lead to new ways of thinking.”
― Richard Buckminster Fuller
http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/j/john_f_kennedy.html#cWKIWigxSBrHvgq1.99
“Change is the law of life; those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future.”
JFK
[email protected] @aspiringarc http://ie.linkedin.com/in/garmaccriosta www.iasa.ie | www.ivi.ie | www.ics.ie
Research worlds are colliding