XTL: Opportunities and Challenges
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Transcript of XTL: Opportunities and Challenges
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XTL: Opportunities and Challenges
Jan van Schijndel, Shell Global SolutionsJornadas Latinoamericanas de Refinación – Instituto Argentino de Petróleo y
del Gaz
Mendoza, 1 November 2006
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Presentation Overview
What is XTL
Industry Overview
XTL Products
Potential Impact of XTL Products
Overview of Pearl GTL Project in Qatar
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What is ‘XTL’ ?
Identical High Quality
Synthetic Products
Natural Gas
Biomass
Coal Fischer-Tropsch process
Syngas
GG
BB
CC
GTL
Shell Gasification
Process
CTL
Shell Coal Gasificatio
n Process
BTL
Gasifier
XTL = GTL, CTL or BTL “The synthetic fuels XTL = GTL, CTL or BTL “The synthetic fuels
continuum”continuum”
Low temperature (Co) Middle Distillates
High temperature (Fe) Lighter products
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Worldwide GTL Capacity Announcements
Source: Purvin&Gertz
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Presentation Overview
What is XTL
Industry Overview
XTL Products
Potential Impact of XTL Products
Overview of Pearl GTL Project in Qatar
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Shell XTL Technology & Fischer Tropsch
Hydrogen Carbon monoxide
+
Fischer-Tropsch Distillates
Catalyst
+
Water
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NaphthaKeroseneGasoilWaxy Raffinate
WaxesSolventsDetergent feeds
HydrocarbonProducts
Byproducts: Nitrogen, Water, Bio-sludge
Air
Air Separation
Natural Gas
Gasification
Oxygen
Synthesis Gas
FT Synthesis
Raw FT products
Conversion
Separation
Shell XTL Technology
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Characteristics of the XTL Industry
Capital intensive
Technology based
High complexity
Value chain integration
High entry hurdles Few large players
GTL led by Qatar
Long lead times from concept to start-up
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Shell GTL from
Laboratory Bench to
World Scale Plant
Amsterdam Laboratory – 1970’s
Amsterdam Pilot Plant - 1983
Bintulu Commercial Plant - 1993
Pearl GTL, Qatar World Scale Plant- FID July 2006- End decade start-up
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0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
Cap
acit
y (
bb
l/d
ay)
BintuluOryx
EscravosPearlExxonMobil
Oryx II
ConocoPhilipsSasolChevronMarathon
Algeria
Pearl II
1,000,000
2010
Potential XTL Capacity Build-up
+ Potentially ~300,000 bpd CTL
+ Potential projects in Iran, Egypt, Indonesia, Bolivia & other locations
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Equivalent Crude Oil price [$/bbl]
0
50
100
GTL CTL BTL
Production Costs Differs for GTL, CTL & BTL
(Indicative figures only)
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XTL Capacity Build-up Factors
Markets for bulk materials and equipment – capacity & costs?
EPC market – capacity & costs?
Technical scale-up – risks?
Oil price – remaining high?
Financing – capacity & appetite?
Qatar: end of ‘moratorium’?
Specialities markets – saturation?
CTL - CO2 issue?
Assumption:
0.8 mln bpd ~ 33 mln ton/a by 2015
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Presentation Overview
What is XTL
Industry Overview
XTL Products
Potential Impact of XTL Products
Overview of Pearl GTL Project in Qatar
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XTL Products
LPG Commodity
XTL Naphtha Paraffinic – excellent cracker yields
XTL Base Oil Highest quality - lowest cost
Normal Paraffins Detergents feedstock - cost competitive
XTL Gasoil Cleaner burning - emission benefits
Specialities
Core
IndicativeRelativeVolumes
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XTL Products: Unique Properties
‘Standard’XTL
Gasoil:Cetane number75 - 80 46 - 50
Kerosene:Smoke Point 110 25
Naphtha:% paraffins ~100 ~70
Base Oils:Viscosity Index 130-145 125 -130
Density
Oxid. Resist. 13,500 9,500
(Gr. III)
~0.78 0.82 – 0.845
Clear, clean burning products, biodegradable, virtually free of sulphur
and aromatics
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Presentation Overview
What is XTL
Industry Overview
XTL Products
Potential Impact of XTL Products
Overview of Pearl GTL Project in Qatar
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XTL Naphtha
The projected XTL Naphtha production by 2015 (~ 8,000 ktpa) is insignificant compared with current world demand and projected demand growth
The quality of the XTL naphtha (100 % paraffinic) will offer higher yields in crackers and/or allow blending with inferior quality naphtha
GTL Naphtha from ME projects will predominantly be consumed in the Asia Pacific region
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
2005 2015 XTL by2015
World Demand (ktpa)
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XTL Gasoil
The projected XTL Gasoil production by 2015 (~ 20,000 ktpa) is insignificant compared with current world demand and projected demand growth
The low density/high cetane XTL gasoil will be an attractive blending component for refineries with gasoil pool density / cetane constraints
GTL gasoil for the Middle East will primarily flow to the gasoil deficient European market
World Demand (ktpa)
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
2005 2015 XTL by2015
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Potential Applications of XTL Gasoil
Potential Market
Pote
nti
al V
alu
e
Commodity Gasoil
Neat XTL Fuel in Advanced engines
Refinery Blending
Premium Retail Fuel
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Continued XTL Fuel Market Developments
GermanyFleet trial with Volkswagen
LondonToyota trial China
Michelin Bibendum Challenge
100% GTL Fuel
Diesel/GTL Fuel blend
GreeceShell Diesel 2004
LondonBus trial with Daimler-Chrysler
JapanFleet trial
JapanAichi hybrid bus
ChinaBus trial Shanghai
USADept. of TransportYosemite Water
Germany, Austria,Netherlands, Italy,
Switzerland
ThailandShell Pura Diesel
ChinaTaxi trial Shanghai
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Emission Benefits of XTL Fuel
0%
50%
100%
NOx PM HC CO
Existing engines Optimised engines
% reduction 5-45% 25-40% 45-60% 40-85%
ConventionalS-free diesel
XTL Fuel will reduce criteria pollutants from new AND existing vehicles Engines optimized to run on XTL fuel can deliver further emissions reductions,
particularly for NOx Emissions benefits vary depending on vehicle type and technology level
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XTL Fuel: Mega-cities Air Quality Solution
Growing importance of clean public transport
XTL Fuel most beneficial in Mega-cities where air quality is under strain
XTL Fuel is cost-effective in making use of existing infrastructure
Expression of interest:– China– Japan– US / California– EU (UK, Germany, Netherlands)
Mega-cities:
Population ~ 10 million
people
and with air quality issues
Number: 27 worldwide
Notional number of
vehicles:
~ 10,000 buses
~ 40,000 taxis
One world-scale XTL plant can supply neat XTL Fuel to buses and taxis in:
10 to 15 Mega-cities
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XTL Normal Paraffin
If included in half of the projected XTL projects the XTL Normal Paraffin (NP) production by 2015 (~ 700 ktpa) is comparable with the projected world demand growth
NP from XTL would allow LAB plants to be located away from refineries and/or to be de-bottlenecked irrespective of refinery constraints
Manufacturing costs for XTL Normal Paraffin is well below that of conventional plants using kerosene as feedstock
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2005 2015 XTL by2015
World Demand (ktpa)
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XTL Plants will offer highest quality (light) Base Oils at lowest costs
Base Oil production from one world-scale XTL plants nearly saturate the market demand for Group III+IV
Currently high growth rate for Group III+IV at the expense of Gr. I and this trend might be accelerated with the emergence of the XTL Base Oils
Heavier viscosity grades will continue to be produced from crude oil
XTL Base Oils World Demand (mln t/a)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2005 XTL
Gr I
Gr II
Gr III+IV
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Presentation Overview
What is XTL
Industry Overview
XTL Products
Potential Impact of XTL Products
Overview of Pearl GTL Project in Qatar
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North Field
Pearl GTL - Project Overview
Fully integrated project: “From Reservoir to Market’
1,600 MMscf/d well head gas
~120,000 b/d Condensate, LPG & ethane
140,000 b/d GTL products
Based on proprietary Shell GTL technology
Start-up: end of the decade in two phases
EthanePropaneButaneCondensateSulphur
GTL NaphthaGTL GasoilNormal ParaffinGTL Base Oils
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Bintulu start-up in 1993, 12,500 bpd expanded to 14,700 bpd in 2003
~10 years of experiences resulting in world class operational excellence
Commercial scale Shell GTL Technology proven to be safe, reliable and profitable
World-wide experiences in the marketing of GTL Products
From Bintulu Shell MDS to Pearl GTL
Pearl GTL design is fully underpinned by the operational experiences of Bintulu
Only limited scale-up from Bintulu on equipment level
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Pearl GTL Onshore: Huge Dimensions
1440 meters 1610 metersProcess:
Shaft power consumption 1,200 MW
Heat consumption 850 MW
Steam generation 8,000 tons/hr
Catalysts (5 processes) 5,630 tons
FEED:
Number P&IDs ~1000
Number documents~ 4,600
Number Volumes ~ 120
Construction:Plot area: 250 haEquipment number >3,000 itemsPiping 1.5 mln LMStructural steel105,000 tons Concrete490,000 m3 Cables 7,600 kmHeavy lifts > 1,200 tons > 24I/O: 45,000Field Instruments:50,000Manhours: >170 mlnPeak workforce:35,000
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Presentation Overview
What is XTL
Industry Overview
XTL Products
Potential Impact of XTL Products
Overview of Pearl GTL Project in Qatar
Summary
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Opportunities and Challenges from XTL
XTL = GTL, CTL and BTL
The growth of XTL capacity is likely to fall short of earlier projections
Potential volumes of ‘core’ XTL products (naphtha and gasoil) are insignificant relative to projected global demand growth
Naphtha and gasoil could offer attractive blending options to refiners
XTL specialties products (normal paraffin and base oils) will saturate projected demand growth
The Pearl GTL Project in Qatar is reality and will signify a step-change in XTL products entering the global oil products markets
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