[XLS]cpo.noaa.govcpo.noaa.gov/sites/cpo/RISA/2015 RISA Project Database (FINAL).xlsx · Web view......

Project Title

ACCAP Philip Loring Yes

ACCAP Jeremy Mathis Yes

ACCAP Yes

ACCAP Yes

ACCAP Yes

RISA Team

Principle Investigators

Is this a multi-year project?

Regional Assessments of Vulnerability and Environmental Security (RAVENS)

Ocean Acidification Sensitivity Index (OASI)

Jeremy Mathis, Lauren Frisch

Public perceptions of ocean acidification

Sarah Trainor, Philip Loring, Nathan Kettle"

Social Network Analysis of Climate Science and Service Organizations in Alaska

Sarah Trainor, Jessie Cherry, Corrie Knapp

Preliminary Assessment for Vulnerability of Hydropower Production in Alaska to Climate Variability and Change: Best Practices for Communication and Application of Climate Science

ACCAP Meta-analysis of Needs Assessment Yes

ACCAP No

ACCAP Yes

ACCAP Yes

Sarah Trainor, Corrie Knapp

Sarah Trainor, Corrie Knapp, Casey Brown

Current Coastal Change Research/Management Projects and Priority Information Needs in Western Alaska

Sarah Trainor, John Walsh

Historical Sea Ice Atlas for Alaska Waters

John Walsh, Peter Bieniek

Using Climate Divisions to Construct Anomalies and Trends in Alaska

ACCAP Olivia Lee Yes

ACCAP Weather and Climate Highlights Tool Yes

ACCAP Yes

Scenario Planning for Energy and Resource Development on the North Slope, Alaska

John Walsh, Rick Thoman, Lena Krutikov, Tina Buxbaum

Rick Thoman (NWS), Tina Buxbaum

National Weather Service Alaska Climate Forecast Briefings

CCRUN Blumberg N/A

CCRUN Blumberg Same as above N/A



CCRUN N/A

Coastal Flood Risk Assessment for the Urban Northeastern Corridor, Today and with Future Sea Levels

Blumberg, Orton, Sanderson, MacManus

Quantifying the Value and Communicating the Protective Services of Living Shorelines: Damage Estimation and Online Mapping Component

CCRUN N/A

CCRUN Same as above N/A

CCRUN Brown N/A

CCRUN N/A

CCRUN Same as above N/A

Branco, Baptista, Sullivan

Detecting Water Quality Regime Shifts in Jamaica Bay

Branco, Baptista, Sullivan

A Water Management Knowledge Network for the Urban Northeast

Culligan, Plunz, MacManus, McGillis, Gerrard, Montalto

Coastal SEES (Track 2), Collaborative: Developing High Performance Green Infrastructure Systems to Sustain Coastal Cities

Culligan, Plunz, MacManus, McGillis, Gerrard, Montalto

CCRUN Gaffin N/A

CCRUN N/A

CCRUN Horton N/A

CCRUN Jaiteh Hudson River Restoration Project N/A

The Role of Green Infrastructure in Resilience to Urban Flooding

Georgas, Orton, Blumberg

Analyzing history to project and manage the future: Simulating the effects of climate on Long Island Sound’s physical environment and living marine resources

Climate and Urban Systems Partnerhip

CCRUN Khanbilvardi N/A

CCRUN Khanbilvardi Same as above N/A

CCRUN Kinney, Patrick N/A



CCRUN N/A

N/A

Characterizing Thermal Neighborhoods for Climate Health Impacts

Reducing Mortality from Heat Waves in the Urban Northeast

Climate, pollen and allergic diseases in the NYC metropolitan region

Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality in New York City

Kinney, Patrick; Quinn, Ashlinn; and Shaman, Jeffrey

Summertime indoor heat danger in NYC residences

Kinney, Patrick; Madrigano, Jaime

Social vulnerability factors in climate impacts on health in NYC

CCRUN Lall N/A

CCRUN Lall N/A

CCRUN N/A

CCRUN Madajewicz N/A

Water sustainability and the environment under a changing climate: Promoting Adaptive Management in the Delaware River Basin

Water Management under varying demand and climate in North Jersey: Assessing potential changes in water allocation

MacManus, Blumberg, Lall

The Hudson River Flood Hazard Decision Support System – Accurate Modeling of Flood Zones for Combined Sea Level Rise, Storm Surge, and Rain

Building resilience to storm surges and sea level rise - A comparative study of coastal zones in New York City and Boston

CCRUN Madajewicz Same as above N/A

CCRUN Madajewicz N/A

CCRUN Montalto N/A

CCRUN Montalto N/A

CCRUN Montalto Same as above N/A

The Role of Social Features in Urban Neighborhoods in Resilience to Flooding

Climate information for water harvesting and re-use strategies in Philadelphia

The Performance of Green Infrastructure Under Extreme Climate Conditions / GI as adaptation strategy

CCRUN Montalto Evaluating GI vulnerability to CC N/A

CCRUN Montalto N/A

CCRUN Montalto N/A

CCRUN Montalto N/A

CCRUN Orton N/A

N/A

Investigation into the relationship of green infrastructure to Sandy-building damages

Developing High Performance Infrastructure Systems to Sustain Coastal Cities

Green infrastructure, climate and cities seminar series

Protecting coastal urban populations from storm surges

Orton, Georgas, Blumberg, Fitzpatrick

Coastal Adaptation Impacts on Water Quality and Flooding

CCRUN Palmer N/A

CCRUN Palmer N/A

CCRUN Palmer N/A

Evaluating reservoir operations and the impacts of climate change in the Connecticut River Basin

Modeling Extreme Precipitation and Streamflow in NYCWSS Watersheds

An analysis of New York City’s water supply system under future conditions

CCRUN Palmer N/A

CCRUN N/A

CCRUN N/A

CCRUN Rosenzweig N/A

CCRUN Yetman, MacManus N/A

An analysis of New York City’s water supply system under future conditions

Pullen, Blumberg, Orton, Georgas

Ensemble tropical cyclone coastal flood forecasting

Quinn, Ashlinn and Tamerius, James

Summertime indoor heat danger in NYC residences

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2013

Building data for climate change adaptation: filling data gaps and characterizing storm surge impacts in the Hudson River Valley and Long Island

CIRC Yes

CIRC No

Philip Mote (Oregon State University), John Abatzoglou (University of Idaho), Bart Nijssen (University of Washington), Dominique Bachelet (Conservation Biology Institute); Dennis Lettenmaier (former University of Washington)

INTEGRATED SCENARIOS: Integrated Scenarios of the Future Northwest Environment

John Abatzoglou (University of Idaho)

INTEGRATED SCENARIOS: Gridded Data Set of Historical Meteorological Data

CIRC No

CIRC ENVISION: Willamette Water 2100 Yes

Katherine Hegewisch (University of Idaho), John Abatzoglou (UI) (Phil Mote (OSU))

INTEGRATED SCENARIOS: Integrated Scenarios Tools: Improving the Accessibility of the Integrated Scenarios Data via a Data Portal

Roy Haggerty (Oregon State University), David Hulse (University of Oregon), John Bolte (OSU), Adell Amos (UO), Phil Mote (OSU), and David Turner (OSU)

CIRC No

CIRC Yes

David Hulse, Adell Amos

ENVISION: State and Federal Water Law and Policy Project

Denise Lach (Oregon State University), John Bolte (OSU), and John Stevenson (OSU)

Graduate Students (OSU): Allison Marshall Inouye, Matt Bragg, Jennifer Koch, Cynthia Schwartz, David Stuve, Patrick Wingo

ENVISION: Extension Big Wood River

CIRC Yes

Peter Ruggiero (Oregon State University), John Bolte (OSU), John Stevenson (OSU) and Patrick Corcoran (OSU)

Graduate Students (OSU): Heather Baron, Eva Lipiec, Alexis Mills, Katherine Serafin, and Chad Zanocco

ENVISION: Envision Tillamook County Coastal Futures (TCCF)

CIRC Yes

Nathan Gilles (OSU) (also Lisa Hayward (University of Washginton & NW CSC)(OCCRI Staff)

COMMUNICATIONS: CIRC dedicated communicatiouns and outreach activities

CIRC Yes

CIRC Yes

CIRC David Hulse Yes

Meghan Dalton, Phil Mote

CLIMATE ASSESSMENTS: National Climate Assessment Northwest regional chapter

Meghan Dalton, Phil Mote

CLIMATE ASSESSMENTS: Northwest Climate Assessment Report (NWCAR)

CLIMATE ASSESSMENTS: Land Use and Cover Change chapter of NCA

CIRC Yes

Meghan Dalton (Oregon State University), John Abatzoglou (University of Idaho), Katherine Hegewisch (UI), Phil Mote (OSU), and Kathie Dello (OSU)

HYDROLOGY: Pilot Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA)

CIRC HYDROLOGY: Coping with Drought No

CIRC Yes

CIRC Yes

Dennis Lettenmaier (University of Washington), Bart Nijssen (UW); also supporting John Abatzaglou (University of Idaho), Kathie Dello (OSU), John Stevenson (OSU)

Julie Vano (University of Washington) and Dennis Lettenmaier (UW)

HYDROLOGY: Hydrologic sensitivity analysis

Venkataramana Sridhar (Boise State University)

HYDROLOGY: Hydrological model enhancement in terms of surface water (VIC-MODFLOW Groundwater Implementation)

CIRC No

CIRC John Stevenson (OSU) Yes

Venkataramana Sridhar (Boise State University)

HYDROLOGY: WRF-NOAH Implementation

CLIMATE ADAPTATION PARTNERSHIPS: North Coast Climate Adaptation/Alignnment Project (NCAP)

CIRC Yes

John Stevenson (Oregon State University), Denise Lach (OSU

CLIMATE ADAPTATION PARTNERSHIPS: Extension Leadership & Training

CIRC Yes

CIRC Kathie Dello No

CIRC Yes

Denise Lach (Oregon State University), David Peterson (United States Department of Agriculture-United States Forest Service), John Stevenson (OSU), and Kathie Dello (OSU), Jessica Halofsky (UW)

CLIMATE ADAPTATION PARTNERSHIPS: Building Organizational Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change on Public Lands in the Pacific Northwest--including Blue Mountains Adaptation Partnership (BMAP) and Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership (NRAP)

CLIMATE ADAPTATION PARTNERSHIPS: Great Basin Forums

Kathie Dello (Oregon State University)

CLIMATE ADAPTATION PARTNERSHIPS: Climate Change Chapter for Oregon Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan (NHMP)

CIRC Yes

CIRC Yes

Josh Foster (Oregon State University), Kathie Dello (OSU)

CLIMATE ADAPTATION PARTNERSHIPS: City of Eugene/Springfield Climate Vulnerability Assessment (Hazard Mitigation Plan update)

Kathie Dello (Oregon State University)

CLIMATE ADAPTATION PARTNERSHIPS: City of Portland and Multnomah County Climate Action Plan

CIRC Yes

CIRC Yes

Meghan Dalton (Oregon State University) and Jeff Bethel (OSU)

CLIMATE ADAPTATION PARTNERSHIPS: Benton County Health Department

Samantha Chisholm Hatfield (Oregon State University), Philip Mote (OSU)

CLIMATE ADAPTATION PARTNERSHIPS: Tribal Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change

CIRC Yes

CIRC No

CIRC Bob Doppelt (TRIG) No

CISA Yes

Josh Foster (Oregon State University)

CLIMATE ADAPTATION PARTNERSHIPS: American Society of Adaptation Professionals (ASAP) (adaptationprofessionals.org/)

Meghan Dalton (Oregon State University), Stacy Vynne (TRIG)

CLIMATE ADAPTATION PARTNERSHIPS: Public Health Sector Planning

CLIMATE ADAPTATION PARTNERSHIPS: Willamette Valley Partnerships

Kirstin Dow, Kirsten Lackstrom, Amanda Brennan

NIDIS Carolinas DEWS Pilot Program: Drought Impacts Monitoring and Reporting through Citizen Science Engagement

CISA Dan Tufford Yes

CISA Yes

CISA Yes

NIDIS Carolinas DEWS Pilot Program: Indicators and Indices of Drought in Southeastern Coastal Ecosystems

Greg Carbone, Kirstin Dow, Chip Konrad

NIDIS Carolinas DEWS Pilot Program: Development of an atlas of hydroclimate extremes in the Carolinas

Elizabeth Fly, Jessica Whitehead

Promoting Climate Change Awareness and Adaptive Planning in Atlantic Fisheries Communities

CISA Elizabeth Fly Yes

CISA Yes

Using Participatory Scenario Building to Encourage Climate-Resilient Planning in the Coastal Carolinas

Kirstin Dow, Elizabeth Fly

Fostering a citizen-driven sea level rise task force in the South Carolina Lowcountry

CISA Chip Konrad Yes

CISA Dan Tufford Yes

Assessing Climate-Related Public Health Vulnerabilities in North Carolina

Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variability on Water Quality Conditions and Vibrio in a South Carolina Estuary

CISA John King Yes

CISA Yes

Influence of Historical Drainage on Coastal Ecosystem Resilience to Rising Sea Level: Implications for Natural Resources Management and Terrestrial Carbon Storage of the Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge

Dan Tufford, Greg Carbone

Modeling of the Winyah Bay Watersheds

CISA No

CISA Greg Carbone Yes

Dan Tufford, Greg Carbone

Future Streamflow Forecasts for a Coastal Plain River

Assessment of Regional Climate Models in Simulating Extreme Rainfall Events


CISA Yes

CISA Yes

Carolinas Coastal Climate Outreach Initiative (CCCOI)

Amanda Brennan, Elizabeth Fly

Southeast and Caribbean Climate Community of Practice

Amanda Brennan, Kirsten Lackstrom, Kirstin Dow, Elizabeth Fly

Research and Communications in Support of Adaptation

CISA Yes

CISA Greg Carbone Yes

CISA Ryan Boyles Drought Sensitivity Testing Yes

Kirstin Dow, Jessica Whitehead

Vulnerability and Consequences Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS) Process

Assessing Climate Sensitivity and Long-Term Water Supply Reliability with a North Carolina Water System

CISA Greg Carbone Dynamic Drought Index Tool (DDIT) Yes


CISA Karin Yeatts Yes

Addressing Short and Long-Term Weather and Climate Impacts on a South Carolina Barrier Island

Climate Change Impacts of Air Pollution on Morbidity in Vulnerable Populations across the Life Stages in 2050

CLIMAS Yes

CLIMAS Air Quality and Climate Yes

M. Crimmins, Z. Guido, A. Meadow, J. McLeod

Climate and Weather Services for Disaster Management: A FEMA, NWS, and CLIMAS Collaboration

D. DuBois, R. Armenta, A. Arredondo, E. Smith, Y. Zhou

CLIMAS Yes

CLIMAS G. Garfin, J. Overpeck Arizona’s Views on Climate Change Yes

CLIMAS G. Garfin Yes

CLIMAS G. Garfin, B. McMahan Yes

D. Ferguson, M. Crimmins, A. Masayesva

Planning for Drought in the Warming and Drying Southwest: Developing a Suite of Drought Indicators to Support Tribal Decision Making in the Four Corners

Western Adaptation Alliance – A Collaboration Project for Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Extremes

Using Critical Thresholds to Customize Climate Projections of Extreme Events to User Needs and Support Decisions

CLIMAS Climate in Context (RISA Book) Yes

CLIMAS G. Garfin Yes

G. Garfin, D. Ferguson, M. Crimmins, G. Owen, J. Brugger

Defining Ecosystem Water Needs and Assessing Impacts of Climate Change and Water Diversion on Ecosystems of the Upper Gila River in New Mexico

CLIMAS Yes

CLIMAS Yes

G. Garfin, M. Hammersley

Fostering Conducive Conditions for Climate Assessments: Collaborative Scenario Planning and the Colorado River Basin Study

G. Garfin, J. Brugger, A. Meadow

Building Climate Science into Land and Water Conservation Planning and Decision-Making in the American Southwest

CLIMAS G. Frisvold Yes

CLIMAS Yes

Sectoral Impacts of Drought and Climate Change

G. Frisvold, G. Camara, N. Puarattana-aroonkorn

Climate Mitigation and Agriculture: Public Policy Education

CLIMAS G. Frisvold, T. Bai Yes

CLIMAS The Southwest Climate Outlook Yes

Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change: Markets, Policy, Technology, and Information

B. McMahan, G. Garfin, M. Crimmins, D. DuBois, E. Huddleston, Z. Guido

CLIMAS Yes

B. Colby, G. Frisvold, C. Woodhouse, G. Garfin, R. Klawitter, D. Duval, A. Clarke, T. Duffy

Adaptation Strategies for Water and Energy Sectors in the Southwest

CLIMAS Climate and Health YesA. Comrie, H. Brown, M. Butterworth

CLIMAS M. Crimmins, J. Weiss Yes

CLIMAS M. Crimmins, J. Weiss Yes

Southeast Arizona Agricultural Weather and Climate Working Group

Exploring the use of climate and remote sensing data to support drought monitoring across the Southwest U.S.

CLIMAS Yes

M. Crimmins, D. Ferguson, C. Woodhouse, A. Meadow, R. Brice

Tribal Drought Information for Monitoring, Assessment, and Planning (Tribal DrI-MAP)

CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcasts Yes

CLIMAS Yes

CLIMAS Yes

B. McMahan, M. Crimmins, G. Frisvold, B. Colby, D. Ferguson, G. Garfin, E. Huddleston, Z. Guido, R. Thomas

B. McMahan, M. Crimmins, G. Garfin, D. Ferguson, G. Frisvold, E. Huddleston, Z. Guido, G. Owen

Southwestern Oscillations: News, Information, & Commentary - CLIMAS Blog

B. McMahan, M. Wilder, G. Garfin, H. Brown, D. Ferguson, M. Crimmins, E. Eaves, G. Owen

CLIMAS Heat Extremes Assessment (HEAT) – Exploring the Cascading Effects of Climate Extremes in the Southwest

CLIMAS B. McMahan, G. Owen Yes

CLIMAS Yes

CLIMAS A. Meadow Yes

CLIMAS Yes

Arizona Business Resilience Initiative - An Initiative To Support Arizona’s Business Community In Managing Climate Risk

B. McMahan, M. Crimmins

Building A Regional Climate Database: Applications For Research, Collaboration, and Public Engagement - Integrating Climate Data into Ecological Analysis, Monitoring, and Restoration

RISA: An Organizational Ethnography

M. Wilder, G. Garfin, G. Frisvold

Managing Demand, Rethinking Supply: Adaptation, Conservation, and Planning in the Drought-prone Southwestern U.S. and Northwest Mexico

CLIMAS M. Wilder, G. Garfin Yes

CLIMAS Yes

CLIMAS TreeFlow Transition Yes

Metrics and Measurement of Adaptation

C. Woodhouse, D. Ferguson

“Making the Connection between Science and Decision Making" Graduate Seminar

C. Woodhouse, R. Brice, B. McMahan

CLIMAS C. Woodhouse, R. Brice

CLIMAS J. Overpeck, B. Colby Colorado River Research Group Yes

Disentangling the Influence of Antecedent Temperature and Soil Moisture on Colorado River Water Resources

CLIMAS Yes

CLIMAS No

CLIMAS S. Truebe No

CLIMAS R. Lybrand No

G. Owen, D. Ferguson, B. Colby, A. Comrie, M. Crimmins, D. DuBois, G. Frisvold, G. Garfin, B. McMahan, J. Overpeck, M. Wilder, C. Woodhouse

CLIMAS Project and Program Evaluation (2012-2017)

C. Guiterman, D. Ferguson, C. Woodhouse, M. Crimmins

Climatic Sensitivities of Navajo Forestlands: Use-Inspired Research to Guide Tribal Forest Management

Cultivating a Climate of Cave Conservation Awareness: A synthesis of current speleothem sampling methods and best practice recommendations

Soil Not Dirt: The surprising connection between soils and climate in the Southwest U.S.

CLIMAS No

CLIMAS H. Brown, M. Wilder No

CNAP

Nina Oakley education outreach No

L. Huang, C. Woodhouse

Achieving Scientific Literacy in the Classroom: A climate science and law curriculum

Vulnerability assessment for Vectorborne diseases and Valley Fever in Arizona

CNAP

No

CNAP Michael Dettinger ARkStorm@Tahoe Yes

CNAP

State of Bay-Delta Science 2015

Yes

Kelly RedmondNina Oakley

The California Climate Outcome Likelihood Tool

Michael DettingerDan Cayan

CNAP Yes

CNAP Yes

CNAP

Great Basin Climate Forums

Yes

CNAP

Extreme Wildfire Events

Yes

CNAP Tamara Wall Yes

CNAP

Great Basin Scenario Planning

Yes

Timothy BrownTamara Wall

Verification of Spot Weather Forecasts

Alexander GershunovDan Cayan

Natural variability in the changing climate: Interaction of interannual, decadal, and century timescales with daily weather

Tamara WallKelly Redmond

Tamara WallTimothy Brown

Tribal Climate Change Adaptation Planning Workshop

Tamara WallTimothy Brown

CNAP Tamara Wall

Santa Ana Winds Threat Index

Yes

CNAP Anne Steinemann

California NIDIS Pilot

Yes

CNAP Anne Steinemann Yes

CNAP Timothy Brown Yes

CNAP Timothy Brown Yes

Drought planning in the Western U.S

Advanced Climate and Wildland Fire Training

Southwest Monsoon Fire Decision Support

CNAP A Gershunov No

CNAP Tim Brown Yes

Precipitation Extremes and Probabilities

Establishing a national standard methodology for operational mixing height determination

CNAP Yes

CNAP Yes

CNAP Yes

Michael DettingerDan CayanJulie Kalansky

Coping with Drought in California's Russian River Watersehd

Daniel CayanDavid Pierce

Localized Constructed Analogues Climate Downscaling Technique

Daniel DayanMichael DettingerKelly Redmond

CA Department of Water Resources Climate Change Technical Advisory Group

CNAP Yes

CNAP Dan Cayan Yes

Dan Cayan, Sam Iacobellis, Mary Tyree

California Coastal Climate Change and Sea Level Rise

Developing Ocean Climate Indicators for the North-central California Coast and Ocean; Benét Duncan et al

CNAP Westerling Potential Fire Impacts Yes

CNAP Westerling NoCounty Climate and Health Profile Report

GLISA Yes

Kenneth Frank, Richard Rood, Thomas DietzNon-GLISA Co-Is: Kyle Powys Whyte, Frank Marsik

National and Regional Engagement with Native American Tribes

GLISA No

GLISA Harris Switzerman No

Richard Rood, Jeff Andresen, Elizabeth Gibbons, William Baule, Daniel Brown, Laura Briley

Great Lakes Adaptation Data Suite (GLADS)

A Climate Change Risks Assessment and Adaptation Strategy for York Region

GLISA No

GLISA Dr. Jane Frankenberger No

Roopali Phadke, and Christie Manning

Ready & Resilient: Climate Preparedness in Saint Paul, Minnesota,

On-Farm Water Recycling as an Adaptation Strategy for Drained Agricultural Land in the Western Lake Erie Basin

GLISA Deb Kleinman No

Implementing Forest and Water Climate Adaptation Solutions to Build the Resilience of Two Northwoods Communities

GLISA Dave Ulrich NoSensitive Sites and Infrastructure Protocol

GLISA No

GLISA Richard Rood Yes

Yes

Katherine Bunting-Howarth

Using Future Scenarios to Identify Potential Policies for Climate Change Adaptation along Lake Ontario,

Apostle Island Scenario Planning Exercise

Pacific RISA

Aly El Kadi- Water Resources Research Center, University of Hawaii

Watershed modeling in American Samoa

Yes

Yes

Pacific RISA

Aly El Kadi- Water Resource Research Center University of Hawaii

American Samoa groundwater modeling

Pacific RISA

Melissa Finucane, Senior Fellow, Research Program, East-West Center; Senior Behavioral and Social Scientist, RAND CorporationVictoria Keener, Fellow, Research Program, East-West Center; Pacific RISA Lead Principal Investigator

Water Resources on Guam: Potential impacts and adaptive response to climate change for Department of Defense installations

Yes

Yes

Pacific RISA

Victoria Keener, Fellow, Research Program, East-West Center; Pacific RISA Lead Principal InvestigatorJohn Marra, Adjunct Senior Fellow, Research Program and Director, Pacific Regional Climate Services, NOAADeanna Spooner, Coordinator at Pacific Islands Climate Change CooperativeDavid Helweg; Director, DOI / USGS Pacific Islands Climate Science Center

The PIRCA Sustained Assessment process

Pacific RISA

Victoria Keener, Fellow, Research Program, East-West Center; Pacific RISA Lead Principal InvestigatorLaura Brewington, Fellow, Research Program, East-West Center; Pacific RISA Program ManagerMelissa Finucane, Senior Fellow, Research Program, East-West Center; Senior Behavioral and Social Scientist, RAND Corporation

Maui Future Climate and Land Use Scenario Development

Maui Island Water Budget Modeling Yes

Evaluation of Pacific RISA Yes

Pacific RISA

Victoria Keener, Fellow, East-West Center; Stephen Anthony, Center Director United States Geological Survey, Pacific Islands Water Science Center

Pacific RISA

Melissa Finucane, Senior Fellow, Research Program, East-West Center; Victoria Keener, Fellow, Research Program, East-West Center

Yes

Yes

No

Yes

Pacific RISA

Nancy Lewis, Director, Research Program, East West Center; Victoria Keener, Research Fellow, East West Center

Climate impacts on human health in the Pacific Islands

Pacific RISA

Dr. H . Annamalai International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) lead principal investigator

Climate Projections for Hawaii and American Samoa

Pacific RISA

Laura Brewington, Fellow, Research Program, East-West Center; Pacific RISA Program Manager; Jeff Burgett, Science Director, DOI Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative (PICCC)

Landscape Conservation Design (LCD) at island appropriate scales

Pacific RISA

Dr. H . Annamalai, International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) lead principal investigator

Future Pacific Basin tropical cyclone modeling

Yes

Yes

SCIPP Yes

SCIPP No

Pacific RISA

Richard Wallsgrove, Project Specialist, East-West Center; Victoria Keener, Fellow, East-West Center

Freshwater & climate adaptive capacity of policies analysis – Hawaii (statewide) and American Samoa

Pacific RISA

Victoria Keener, Fellow, Research Program, East-West Center; John Marra, NOAA Pacific Islands RCSD

Drought dashboard and indicators of climate change in the USAPI (American Samoa and Republic of the Marshall Islands)

Carrie Pavlowsky, Mark Meo

Water Management Strategies in the High Plains of Texas: Past and Present Institutional Approaches to Sustainable Water Governance

Travis Gliedt, Preston Hartman

Unlikely Innovators’ Adapt to Climate Change: Transforming Water Utilities in Oklahoma

SCIPP Yes

SCIPP Yes

SCIPP Yes

Hal Needham, Barry Keim, David Sathiaraj

A Review of Tropical Cyclone-Generated Storm Surges: Global Data Sources, Observations and Impacts

Hal Needham, Barry Keim, David Sathiaraj

A Location-Based Storm Surge History for the U.S. Gulf Coast

Hal Needham, Barry Keim, Amanda Lewis

Storm Surge Return Levels for the U.S. Gulf Coast

SCIPP Yes

SCIPP Yes

SCIPP Yes

SCIPP Mark Shafer Ecological Impacts of Drought No

SCIPP Mark Shafer No

SCIPP Yes

Hal Needham, Barry Keim, Amanda Lewis

The Vulnerability of Oil Refineries and Power Plants to Storm Surge along the U.S. Gulf Coast

Amanda B. Lewis and Barry D. Keim

Using A Hybrid Synoptic Weather Type Procedure to Predict Precipitation Variability

Dr. Travis Gliedt, Jeffrey Widener, and Preston Hartman

Unlikely Innovators’ Adapt to Climate Change: Transforming Water Utilities in Oklahoma

Landscape Conservation Cooperatives Climate Survey

Rachel Riley, Mark Shafer, Wayne Kellogg

Climate Training for Native American Tribes

SCIPP Yes

SCIPP No

SCIPP No

SCIPP Field Photo Weekends Yes

SCIPP Yes

Sascha Peterson, Gregg Garfin, Mark Shafer, Katharine Hayhoe, Karen MacClune

Using Critical Thresholds to Customize Climate Projections of Extreme Events to User Needs and Support Decisions

Marisa Brumfield, Michael Osland, Richard Day, Mark Shafer

Mangrove Livelihood and Extreme Weather Events

Tara Rodgers, Steve DeMaso, Nicholas Enwright, Mark Shafer

Weather Effects on Winter and Fall Waterfowl Habitat in the Gulf Coast

Mark Shafer, Nolan Doesken, Xiangming Xiao, Julia Drapkin

Mark Shafer, Alek Krautmann, Gregg Garfin, Christine Kuhn

Drought Decisions and Support in the Rio Grande - Rio Bravo River Basin

SECC Brenda Ortiz Yes

SECC

SECC

SECC

SECC

SECC Yes

Climate-based Corn aflatoxin risk prediction

Brenda Ortiz, Damianos Damianidis, Kira Bowen, Gary Windham, Gerrit Hoogenboom

Developing a risk index for corn Aflatoxin contamination

Brenda Ortiz, Gerrit Hoogenboom

Climate variability and nitrogen rate interactions affecting Corn nitrogen use efficiency in Alabama

Brenda Ortiz, Prem Woli, Davind Buntin, Kathy Flanders

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Effects on Hessian Fly (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae) Infestation in the Southeastern USA

Brenda Ortiz, Prem Woli, Jerry Johnson

El Niño-Southern Oscillation effects on yield of heading date-based winter wheat variety groups in the southeastern USA

Carrie Furman, Wendy-Lin Bartels, Heather Dinon, Clyde Fraisse, Brenda Ortiz

Climate-Based Agricultural Risk Management Outreach

SECC Yes

SECC Yes

SECC

SECC Southeast Climate Consortium Yes

SECC Yes

Clyde Fraisse, Brenda Ortiz, George Vellidis, Jose Payero, Scott Templeton, David Zierden, Melissa Griffin, Pam Knox, Michael Thomas, Daniel Solis

Climate variability to climate change: Extension challenges and opportunities in the Southeast USA

George Vellidis, Vasilis Liakos, Xi Liang, Mike Tucker

Developing Irrigation Scheduling Strategies for Addressing Climate Variability in the Southeastern Coastal Plain

James O'Brien and Vasu Misra

Decision support system for reducing agricultural risks caused by climate variability

John R. Christy, Richard T. McNider

Kati Migliaccio, George Vellidis, Clyde Fraisse, Kelly Morgan, Vasilis Liakos, Jose Andreis

Developing SmartPhone Apps for Irrigation Scheduling to Address Climate Variability in the Southeastern Coastal Plain

SECC Mark Risse, Pam Knox Yes

SECC Puneet Srivastava Yes




National Facilitation of Extension Programming in Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation for Animal Agriculture

Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Curves in Alabama

Incorporating Climate Variability for Point-Source Discharge Permitting in a Complex River System

Future Climate Changes and Drought: What do Existing Indices Say about Future Droughts in the Southeastern U.S.?

Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Rainfall Erosivity in the Southeast

SECC Yes

SECC

Senthold Asseng, Davide Cammarano, Belay Kassie, Melissa Ramirez Rodrigues, Clyde Fraisse, Jim Jones, Chris Martinez, D. Ti, Lydia Stefanova, Vasu Misra, David Zierden, James O’Brien, Brenda Ortiz

1. The value of seasonal forecasts; 2. Model uncertainty

Sukop, M., Jaffe, R., Bhat, M., Mozumber, P., Rehage, J., Fuentes, J., Mann, M., Broad, K., Martinez, C., Weisskoff, R., Ault, J., Letson, D., Ho, D., Meyer, R., Smoak, J., Hinkle, C., Watkins, D., Harrington, J.

WSC-Category 2 Collaborative: Robust decision-making for South Florida water resources by ecosystem service valuation, hydro-economic optimization, and conflict resolution modeling

SECC Tim LaRow, Vasu Misra

SECC Yes

Incorporating clmate change effects into next generation coastal inundation decision support systems

Tim Martin; SECC researcher: Wendy-Lin Bartels

PINEMAP - Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project

SECC Vasu Misra

SECC Vasubandhu Misra Yes

Climate variability of the tropical western Atlantic storms

Developing multi-model ensemble projections of ecologically-relevant climate variables for Puerto Rico and the US Caribbean

SECC

SECC

Wendy Graham, Christopher Martinez

The Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasts to Minimize Short-Term Operational Risks for Water Supply

Wendy Graham, Keith Ingram, Tracy Irani, Vasu Misra

Collaborative Development of Public Water Supply Utility Relevant Climate Information for Improved Operations and Planning

SECC

Wendy Graham, Tracy Irani, Wendy-Lin Bartels, Keith Ingram, Vasu Misra

Collaborative Development of Public Water Supply Utility Relevant Climate Information for Improved Operations and Planning

SECC No

SECC Yes

Wendy-Lin Bartels, Leslie Boby, Margaret Clifford, Daniel Dourte, Clyde Fraisse, Jill Gambill, William Hubbard, Pam Knox, Martha Monroe, Brenda Ortiz, Mark Risse

Southern Region Extension Climate Academy

Yawen Bao, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Ron McClendon, George Vellidis, David Zierden

Coupling the SimCLIM system with crop simulation models for determining adaptation strategies under a changing climate: an application for crop production in the southeastern USA

WWA Yes

WWA W. Travis, J. Lukas Regional Extremes Database No

WWA T. Bardsley Yes

L. Dilling, J. Kasprzyk, L. Kaatz (Denver Water)

Balancing Severe Decision Conflicts under Climate Extremes in Water Resource Management

Informing the Integration of Climate Information into Water Supply Planning in Various Contexts in Utah

WWA No

WWA Yes

WWA No

WWA E. Gordon No

WWA No

J. Lukas, N. Molotch, J. Deems

Snowpack monitoring for streamflow forecasting and drought planning in the Rocky Mountain West

E. McNie, S. McNeeley (North Central CSC), C. Knutson (Nat'l Drought Mitigation Center)

Drought Planning on the Wind River Reservation

E. Gordon, I. Rangwala, J. Barsugli

Climate Adaptation Support for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

Water in the Western United States Massive Open Online Course

T. Bardsley, J. Rice (Janine Rice Consulting)

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for the Uinta-Wasatch-Cache and Ashley National Forests

WWA J. Lukas Yes

WWA E. Gordon Yes

WWA I. Rangwala, J. Barsugli Yes

WWA T. Bardsley Yes

Update of Climate Change in Colorado

Colorado Climate Change Vulnerability Study

Evaporation, Drought, and the Water Cycle Across Timescales: Climate Foundational Sciences for the North Central Climate Science Center

Climate Adaptation Guidance for Salt Lake City Public Utilities

WWA W. Travis Yes

WWA W. Travis, I. Rangwala Yes

WWA Yes

Decision Analysis for Climate Adaptation

Building Climate Science into Land and Water Conservation Planning and Decisionmaking in the American Southwest

J. Lukas, T. Bardsley, K. Wolter, E. Gordon

Intermountain West Climate Dashboard

2011-2014 none

2012-2014

2013-2014

2012-present N/A

2012-present N/A

If a multi-year project, what years does it span?

Federal Research Partner

Non Federal Research Partners

CIty of Dillingham, Bristol Bay Native Association, Bristol Bay Borough

NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL)

University of Alaska Ocean Acidification Research Center

NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL)

University of Alaska Ocean Acidification Research Center

DOI - Alaska Climate Science Center (AK CSC)

NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service

2012-2014 N/A N/A

Western AK LCC N/A

2011-present

2012-2015 UAF

NOAANSIDC

Alaska Ocean Observing System (AOOS)

NWS (NOAA), NOAA RCSD, DOI CSC

2014-2015

2013 to present N/A

2014 onward N/A

US DOI Bureau of Ocean Energy ManagementUS DOI Bureau of Land ManagementNOAA National Marine Fisheries Service

University of Alaska Fairbanks GeoAdaptiveNorth Slope BoroughAlaska Department of Fish and Game

National Weather Service (NWS) - NOAA

National Weather Service (NWS) - NOAA

N/A

N/A Same as above Same as above



N/A NOAA

FEMA NJ/NY Coastal Storm Surge Analysis

New York City Department of Environmental Protection; New York City Mayor’s Office of Long-Term Planning and Sustainability; New York City Department of Parks and Recreation; Con Edison; New York City Department of City Planning; The City of Boston’s Office of Environmental and Energy Services; North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority

NYC Dept of Parks and Recreation, NYC Mayor's Office of Long-Term Planning

N/A


N/A N/A N/A

N/A NSF


DOI/National Park Service

Brooklyn College, Cornell University, NYC Department of Environmental Protection, Science and Resilience Institute at Jamaica Bay

NYC Parks Department, Bronx River Alliance, Earthwatch Institute, NYC Dept. of Environmental Protection, Geosyntec Consultants, Aalborg University, Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment

N/A N/A The Trust for Public Land

N/A

N/A NSF

N/A N/A The Nature Conservancy (TNC)

NOAA NY and CT Sea Grant programs / EPA

CT Dept of Energy and Environmental Protection

The Franklin Institute, National Geographic Museum, New York Hall of Science, Carnegie Museum of Natural History, University of Pittsburgh Center for Learning In Out of School Environments

N/A N/A

N/A N/A Same as above

N/A N/A

N/A N/A

N/A N/A

N/A N/A N/A

N/A N/A

NYC Department of Health (exact participation under discussion)

New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene Climate Change and Public Health Workgroup

New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene



N/A N/A Delaware River Basin Commission

N/A N/A

N/A N/A

N/A N/A N/A

The Department of Water & Sewer Utilities from Newark City/ Newark City Government

New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA)

N/A N/A N/A


N/A

N/A N/A

N/A N/A Same as above

U.S. Forest Service; U.S. Evironmental Protection Agency, Regions 2 and 3

New York City Department of Parks and Recreation; New York City Department of Environmental Protection; Philadelphia Water Department; Philadelphia Department of Parks & Recreation; Philadelphia Mayor’s Office of Sustainability; Pennsylvania Horticultural Society

New York City Dept. of Parks and Recreation (NYCDPR)

N/A N/A


N/A N/A

N/A N/A

N/A N/A

N/A DOI-NPS

New York City Dept. of Parks and Recreation (NYCDPR)

The Franklin Institute,The Academy of Natural Sciences, Villanova University

Jersey CIty Department of City Planning

N/A Nature Conservancy

N/A N/A

N/A N/A

US Army Corps of Engineers

New York City Department of Environmental Protection, Hydrologics, Hazen and Sawyer, City College of New York

NYC Department of Environmental Protection; Hydrologics; Hazen & Sawyer

N/A N/A

N/A ONR/NRL N/A

N/A N/A N/A

N/A NOAA City of New York

N/A N/A

NYC Department of Environmental Protection; Hydrologics; Hazen & Sawyer

New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA)

3

Dept. of Interior-Northwest Climate Science Center (NWCSC)

California Nevada Applications Program, Conservation Biology Institute (CBI), and the Regional Approaches to Climate Change (REACCH) project.

National Science Foundation

Northwest Climate Science Center (NW CSC), Regional Approaches to Climate Change (REACCH), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), University of Idaho and Idaho EPSCoR

5

Dept. of Interior-Northwest Climate Science Center (NWCSC); USGS Center for Integrated Data Analytics (CIDA); North Pacifice Landscape Conservation Cooperative (NPLCC)

DataBasin (Conservation Biology Institute (CBI))

National Science Foundation

University of Oregon, Portland State University, and Oregon State University (water.oregonstate.edu/ww2100/)

University of Oregon

4DOI/Bureau of Reclamation

Idaho Department of Water Resources, University of Idaho Cooperative Extension, Big Wood Canal Company, Twin Falls Canal Company, Northside Canal Company, The Nature Conservancy, Wood River Land Trust, Trout Unlimited, Idaho Conservation League, City of Ketchum, Blaine County, Idaho Department of Water Resources, US Geological Survey, US Bureau of Reclamation, USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service, and Idaho Power.

4NOAA/Oregon Sea Grant

Washington Department of Ecology, Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries, Neskowin Coastal Hazards Committee, Oregon Department of Land Conservation, Oregon Department of Transportation, Tillamook County, Nestucca Valley Community Alliance Washington

5 OCCRI StaffDOI CSCs, NOAA RISA

2 NOAA

2 NOAA University of Washington

2 NOAA University of Oregon

NW chapter author organizations: Cascadia Consulting Group, National Wildlife Federation, Idaho Department of Water Resources, University of Idaho, University of Washington,

3

Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA), Seattle Public Utilities, Portland Water Bureau

USDA, NOAA NIDIS

4

2

Western Governors' Association; Oregon, Idaho, and Washington State Water Resources Departments and Drought Task Foreces

NCAR

4NOAA/Oregon Sea Grant

Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development (blogs.oregonstate.edu/northcoastclimate/)

4

Oregon Sea Grant, Oregon State University Extension Service, Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development, and the Association of Natural Resource Extension Professionals, Climate Extension Advisory Council (CEAC)

3

Great Basin LCC

2

US Forest Service PNW Research Station

Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership (NRAP)(adaptationpartners.org/nrap/index.php); Blue Mountains Adaptation Partnership (BMAP)(www.adaptationpartners.org/bmap/index.php)

RISA CNAP, Western Regional Climate Center, Institute for Natural Resources

State of Oregon, Department of Land Conservation and Development - Natural Hazards (www.oregon.gov/LCD/HAZ/pages/nhmp.aspx)

2

2

City of Eugene, City of Springfield, Oregon Partnership for Disaster Resilience (University of Oregon), Eugene Water and Electric Board (csc.uoregon.edu/opdr/eugene-cva), City of Eugene Emergency Manager, City of Springfield Emergency Manager, Eugene/Springfield Fire & EMS, Eugene Water and Electric Board, Department of Land Conservation and Development, Institute for Sustainable Communities, Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, Lane County Public Health

City of Portland, Multnomah County (www.portlandoregon.gov/bps/article/314522)

2

2

Centers for Disease Control (CDC) - Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) Program

Benton County Health Department (www.co.benton.or.us/health/environmental_health/climate_change.php), Oregon Health Authority

Dept. of Interior-Northwest Climate Science Center (NWCSC)

Confederated Tribes of Salish and Kootenai, Quinault Indian Nation, and the Confederated Tribes of Siletz Indians

3

2013-2016

Institute for Sustainable Communities (ISC)

The Resource Innovation Group (TRIG)

Dept. of Homeland Security

The Resource Innovation Group (TRIG)

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS); National Weather Service Forecast Offices in NC and SC

NC and SC State Climate Offices; CoCoRaHS

2014-2015

2014-2016 N/A

2012-2015 N/A

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

East Carolina University (D. Chalcraft)

National Integrated Drought Information Systems, Southeast Regional Climate Center

NC Sea Grant, SC Sea Grant Consortium

2011-2015 N/A

2014- Ongoing N/A

NC Sea Grant, SC Sea Grant Consortium

SC Sea Grant Consortium, SC Small Business Chamber of Commerce

2011-Ongoing

2011-2015

Southeast Regional Climate Center

NC Division of Public Health, NC State Climate Office, UNC Chapel Hill School of Emergency Medicine, UNC School of Public Health

NOAA Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomolecular Research

USC Department of Environmental Health Science

2013-2015 NC State University

2011-Ongoing N/A N/A

Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge (ARNWR)

N/A Clemson University

2013-2015 N/A N/A

Ongoing

Ongoing

Ongoing N/A SC Sea Grant Consortium

NOAA Office for Coastal Management, NOAA Southeast and Caribbean Regional Team (SECART), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), National Sea Grant Office, NOAA Eastern Region Climate Services Director, NOAA Southern Region Climate Services Director, ACE Basin and North Inlet-Winyah Bay National Estuarine Research Reserves (SC)

NC Sea Grant, SC Sea Grant Consortium, College of Charleston, NC National Estuarine Research Reserves, NC Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), East Carolina University, State Climate Office of NC, SC State Climatology Office, SC Department of Health and Environmental Control (SC DHEC), SC Department of Natural Resources (SC DNR), Georgia Sea Grant, Florida Sea Grant, Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant, Governor’s South Atlantic Alliance

NOAA Office for Coastal Management, NOAA Southeast and Caribbean Regional Team (SECART), National Sea Grant Office

NC Sea Grant, SC Sea Grant Consortium, GA Sea Grant, Florida Sea Grant, Sea Grant Climate Network

Ongoing N/A

2014-2016 N/A N/A

2012-2015

NC Sea Grant; SC Sea Grant Consortium; Social and Environmental Research Institute (SERI)

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), National Integrated Drought Information System

Texas A&M University, State Climate Office of North Carolina

Ongoing

2014-2015 N/A SC Sea Grant Consortium

2012-2014 EPA

Northeast Regional Climate Center, Southeast Regional Climate Center

South Carolina State Climatology Office, State Climate Office of North Carolina

Climate Ready North Carolina Program at the NC Division of Public Health

2012-present N/A

2013-present

Federal Emergency Management Agency - Region 9; NOAA National Weather Service - Western Region

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Region 6

University of Texas El Paso; Desert Research Institute; University of Arkansas Medical Sciences; Universidad Autonoma de Ciudad Juarez; New Mexico Environment Dept. – Air Quality Bureau; New Mexico Department of Transportation; Texas Commission on Environmental Quality; Procuraduría Federal de Protección al Ambiente; SEMARNAT-Chihuahua

2013-present N/A N/A

2013-present N/A

2014-present N/A

2014-present N/A

Univ. of Arizona – Institute of the Environment; Stanford Univ.; Univ. of Arizona – School of Geography and Development

Univ. of Arizona - Institute of the Environment

Adaptation International; Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program; ATMOS Research; Institute for Social and Environmental Transition

2012-present

2013-present N/A

NOAA Climate Program Office

Univ. of South Carolina; California Ocean Science Trust

Univ. of Arizona – Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences; Univ. of Arizona – Dept. of Hydrology and Water Resources

2014-present N/A

2012-present N/A Western Water Assessment

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

2008-present N/A

2010-present N/A

California State Univ., San Bernardino – Dept. of Economics; Univ. of Arizona – Dept. of Agricultural and Resource Economics; Univ. of Leeds – School of Earth and Environment; Univ. of Arizona – Dept. of Geosciences; Univ. of Illinois – Dept. of Agricultural and Consumer Economics

New Mexico State Univ. – Agricultural Economics and Agricultural Business; California State Univ., San Bernardino – Dept. of Economics


2002-present N/A

Univ. of Arizona – Institute of the Environment; Office of the State Climatologist for Arizona; Arizona Cooperative Extension; Office of the State Climatologist for New Mexico; New Mexico State Univ.

2007-present

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation; U.S. Department of Agriculture

Sonoran Institute; New Mexico Office of the State Engineer; The Nature Conservancy

2008-present N/A

Univ. of Arizona – Dept. of Computer Science; Univ. of Arizona – School of Geography and Development; Univ. of Arizona – College of Public Health

2014-Present

N/A

NOAA National Weather Service - Tucson

University of Arizona Cooperative Extension

October 2014-present

Univ. of Arizona School of Natural Resources and Environment; Univ. of Arizona College of Agriculture and Life Sciences



2014-present N/A

City of Tucson; Pima Association of Government; Pima County Health Dept.; Arizona State Univ.

2015-present N/A

2014-present


2011-present N/A

Univ. of Arizona – Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy; Univ. of Arizona – Renewable Energy Network; Univ. of Arizona – Eller School of Management; School of Natural Resources and the Environment; Tucson Electric Power

U.S. National Park Service

Borderlands Restoration L3C; Hummingbird Monitoring Network

Univ. Nacional Autonoma de México; Univ. of Arizona – Udall Center for Public Policy; TANGO International

2014-Present N/A



Univ. of Arizona – Udall Center for Public Policy

2014-Present

2014-present N/A

Alaska Climate Science Center; U.S. Geological Survey – Bozeman; U.S. Geological Survey – Denver

Desert Research Institute; Univ. of Nevada – Dept. of Geography

Univ. of Utah, Law; Univ. of Arizona, Geosciences; Univ. of Colorado, Western Water Policy Program; Univ. of California Los Angeles, Geography; Utah State Univ., Stream Geomorphology; Colorado State Univ.; Colorado State Univ., Colorado Water Institute


N/A Navajo Forestry Department

N/A N/A

N/A N/A

N/A N/A

N/A

None Western Regional Climate Center

University of Arizona – Geographic Information Systems Technology Programs; Arizona Dept. of Health Services – Center for Disease Control

NIDIS

2013-2015

2014-2016 US Geological Survey

California Department of Water Resources

US Geological Survey, FEMA, US Bureau of Reclamation, NWS, Department of Navy, DHS

Roughly 130 other State, local, tribal and commercial organizatons

Delta Science Program of the Delta Stewardship Council

2012-2015 University of Utah

USGS None so far

2012-2016 Western Regional Climate Center

2014-2015 USFS n/a

2015-2016 Great Basin LCC

2014-2016 CLIMAS

National Weather Service, Wildland Fire Management Agencies

Oct 2013-Sept 2015

Great Basin Landscape Conservation Cooperative

Institute for Tribal and Environmental Professionals (Univ. of AZ, Flagstaff)

BLMGB LCC

2013-2015

2012-2015

USFSNWS

San Diego Gas and ElectricUCLA

NOAA/NIDIS, National Weather Service, Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Geological Survey, California Nevada River Forecast Center

National Drought Mitigation Center, California Department of Water Resources, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, RAND, U.C. Irvine, U.C.L.A., U.C. Riverside

2012-2015 NOAA/NIDIS

On-going

2013-2015 U.S. Forest Service n/a

Drought managers in the 19 western states; National Drought Mitigation Center

Forest Service; Bureau of Land Management; National Park Service; Fish and Wildlife Service; Bureau of Indian Affairs

CALFIRE; Orange County Fire Authority; Oregon Department of Forestry; City of Asheville NC Fire Department; St Johns River Water Management District, Palatka, FL;

None None

2014-2015 US Forest ServiceIPA Fire Environment Specialist, LLC

2014-2016 Sonoma County Water Agency

on-going California Energy Commision

2012-2015 NA

USGSNOAA

US Army Core of Engineers US Bureau of Reclamation

California Department of Water Resources

2012-2016

2013-2015 USGS

US Geological Survey (Patrick Barnard, Steve Jackson)

California Sea GrantUC Santa BarbaraCalifornia Ocean Science TrustCalifornia Department of Water ResourcesEnvironmental Science Associates

California Ocean Science Trust Greater Farallones National Marine SanctuaryUC Davis Bodega Marine LaboratoryUC DavisPoint Blue Conservation Science

2014-2019 USDA Forest Service This is a federal collaboration

This was a CA state initiative leveraging data products from research sponsored by NOAA (CNAP) and the California Energy Commission

This was an initiative by the California Department of Public Health, leveraging data products from research sponsored by NOAA (CNAP) and the California Energy Commission

Ongoing n/a

Grand Traverse Bay Band of OttawaLittle Traverse Bay Band of OttawaUniversity of MichiganMichigan State University

n/a

n/a

Great Lakes Observing System (GLOS) and NOAA’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL)

Ontario Climate Consortium/Toronto Regional Conservation Authority

n/a

USDA ARS

Macalester College, Minnesota Science Museum

Purdue University, Ohio State University

n/a

Model Forest Policy Program, Red Lake Nation Band of the Chippewa Indians, The Menominee Conservation District

n/a

Great Lakes Saint Lawrence Cities Initiative , AECOM, City of Gary, Indiana

Cornell University

2014 - 2015 National Park Service n/a

2014-2015

Northeast Regional Climate Center, New York Sea Grant

United States Geological Survey

San Diego State UniversityAmerican Samoa Community CollegeAmerican Samoa Power Authority (ASPA)

2014-2015

2014-2018 None*

United States Geological Survey

San Diego State UniversityAmerican Samoa Community CollegeAmerican Samoa Power Authority (ASPA)

US Geological Survey (USGS) Pacific Islands Water Science Center (PIWSC)

2010-2015 University of Hawaii at Manoa

2011-2015 None

Department of Interior (DoI)Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Regional Climate Services Director, Pacific Islands Climate Science Center

USGS Pacific Islands Water Science Center (PIWSC)

2011-2015 none

None

United States Geological Survey, Pacific Islands Water Science Center

2010-2015 (phase 2); 2015-2020 (phase 3)

Susanne Moser Research & Consulting

2014- undefined Not available

2010-2015 None

N/A None

2014-2015 None

Hawaii State Department of Health, Hawaii Public Health Association

University of Reading, United Kingdom

PICCC, Caribbean Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC)

University of Reading- United Kingdom

2010-2015 none none

2013-2015 East West Center

2012-2014 None None

None None

NOAA Pacific Islands RCSDDOI Pacific Islands CSC

2008-2015 None

2008-2015 None None

2008-2015 None None

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, PAGASA (Philippines)

2014-2015 None

2014-2015 None None

2014-2105 None University of Oklahoma

None

None None

2013-2015 The Chickasaw Nation

Benjamin Preston at Oak Ridge National Lab, Zhaoqing Yang at Pacific Northwest National Lab

South Central Climate Science Center

DOI South Central Climate Science Center

2014-2016 None

None

None Gulf Coast Joint Venture

2015-2017 None

2013-2015 None CLIMAS, NACSP

Adaptation International, CLIMAS, ATMOS Research, Institute for Social and Environmental Transition

National Wetlands Research Center

Colorado State University, iSeeChange, University of Oklahoma – Earth Observation & Modeling Facility, CoCoRaHS

NOAA Auburn University

NOAA-RISA

None

USDA-NIFA-AFRI

USDA-NIFA-AFRI

2009-present None

Auburn University, USDA-ARS, Washinton State University

Auburn University, Washinton State University

Auburn University, University of Georgia

Auburn University, University of Georgia

Federation of Southern Cooperatives, Commodity extension specialists, Leaders of boundary organizations, University of Florida, Auburn University

2011-2016 USDA-NIFA None

2011-2016 USDA

USDA

2010-2016 NOAA

2013-2016 USDA

University of Georgia, University of Florida, Lower Flint River Soil and Water Conservation District, Cotton Incorporated, Georgia Cotton Commission, Georgia Peanut Commission

University of Florida, Florida State University, University of Georgia, Auburn University, Clemson University

State Climatologist, State Office of Water Resources

University of Georgia, University of Florida, Clemson Universtiy, Cotton Incorporated

2010-2015 USDA

NOAA

NOAA

NOAA, NIDIS

NOAA Auburn University

University of Nebraska, Washington State University, Texas Agrilife Extension, Cornell University, University of Minnesota, University of Georgia

Auburn University, Florida State University

Auburn University, Alabama Department of Environmental Management, Tetra Tech, City of Atlanta, GA

Auburn University, Florida State University

2016 None

NSF

Florida State University,Auburn University, Florida Climate Institute, IFPRI

NOAA Florida State University

2010-2015 USDA-NIFAMultiple universitieis across Southeast

NOAA Florida State University

2013-2015 None North Carolina State University

NSF

None

Florida State University, Florida Water and Climate Alliance

Academic Partners: UF Water Institute ; UF Southeast Climate Consortium ; UF Center for Public Issues Education; Florida Climate Institute; and others Public Utilities: Broward County; West Palm Beach; GRU Miami-Dade County; OUC; Palm Beach County; Peace River Manasota Regional Water Supply Authority; Tampa Bay Water Water Management Districts: SFWMD, SWFWMD; SJRWMD

None FloridaWCA

2010-2015 None

Southern Region Extension Climate Academy (SRECA) was an effort supported by three USDA NIFA funded efforts: PINEMAP, Climate Variability to Climate Change (Crops) and Animal Agriculture in a Changing Climate and NOAA Sea Grant.

All the State Land grant Universities in the Southern Region

University of Georgia, Washington State University, Florida State University

2014-2016 Denver Water

NOAA CBRFC2014, end date not yet known

Denver Water, Colorado Springs Utilities

National Drought Mitigation Center

Stratus Consulting

Janine Rice Consulting

NOAA CBRFC; NRCS Snow Survey

Wyoming State Engineer's Office, Colorado Water Conservation Board

2014 & 2015, end date not yet known

DOI North Central Climate Science Center

CIRES Education and Outreach, Univ. of Colorado Academic Technology Design Team

US Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station

2013-2014

2013-2015

2013-2017 Colorado Natural Heritage Program

2012-2016

NOAA ESRL Physical Sciences Division

Colorado Climate Center, Colorado State University; Denver Water; Colorado Water Conservation Board

Colorado State University; National Center for Atmospheric Research

DOI North Central Climate Science Center; Southern Rockies LCC; Bureau of Reclamation; US Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station

NOAA CBRFC, NOAA ESRL Physical Sciences Division

Salt Lake City Department of Public Utilities, University of Utah; National Center for Atmospheric Research

2013-2016

2013-2015

2013-TBD

DOI North Central Climate Science Center

CLIMAS RISA, The Nature Conservancy, Univ. of Montana, Mountain Studies Institute, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Colorado Natural Heritage Program

NOAA ESRL Physical Sciences Division; potential collaborations with DOI North Central Climate Sciences Center and USDA Northern Plains Regional Hub

Stakeholder/End User

Sept/2014

Dec 2014

Dec 2014

Ongoing

September 2015

Project End Date (Month/Year)

Deliverables Produced

CIty managers, planners, policymakers

Data Tools, Maps and Information

Scientists, fishermen, federal agencies, state government and agencies

Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report)

Scientists, fishermen, federal agencies, state government and agencies


Climate change stakeholders in Alaska, DOI AK CSC, ACCAP PIs and Steering Committee Members, Tribal governments, other State and Federal agencies.


Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC); regional water and energy managers


Dec 2014

June 2015

Ongoing

March 2015

researchers, decision makers


Coastal communities, coastal change researchers, Western AK LCC


Coastal communities, marine navigation, industry, military, researchers


National Weather Service, State of Alaska, university/government researchers


Dec 2015

Ongoing

Ongoing

North Slope Alaska residents, energy developers, North Slope Borough and Arctic Slope Regional Corporation.


community members, National Weather Service, State of Alaska, university/government researchers

Decision Support Tool(s), Data Tools, Maps and Information

community members, National Weather Service, State of Alaska, university/government researchers

Communication & Outreach

Sep-2015

Same as above Sep-2015



Dec-2015

FEMA; New York City Department of Environmental Protection; New York City Mayor’s Office of Long-Term Planning and Sustainability; New York City Department of Parks and Recreation; Con Edison; New York City Department of City Planning; The City of Boston’s Office of Environmental and Energy Services; North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority

Data Tools / Maps & InformationData Tools / Maps & Information

Publication(s) (book &/or peer-reviewed publication &/or technical report)


NOAA Coastal Services Center, NYC Planning, General Public

Data Tools / Maps & Information

October 2016

Same as above October 2016

June 2015

Aug-2018

Same as above Aug-2018

National, state, and local government agencies, scientific research community, nongovernmental and community organizations concerned about Jamaica Bay land/water resources



major utilities serving New York City, Boston, Hartford (CT), Springfield (MA), and Providence (RI) and other entities in the Connecticut River Basin


industry (Geosyntec Consultants); state and local government (NY City and NY state agencies); schools, teachers, and students (Bronx River Alliance); graduate students from Europe (University of Aalborg); citizen scientists (Earthwatch)



42644

42064

42948

42217

The Trust for Public Land, NYC Dept of Parks & Recreation


Fisheries scientists and resource managers


Urban learning networks in Philadelphia, Washington, New York, and Pittsburgh


Scenic Hudson, New York Dept of Environmental Conservation, The Nature Conservancy, The Cary Institute, Riverkeeper


NYC Department of Health 42461

Same as above 42461

April 2015

April 2015

Dec 2014

42705

Dec 2015



New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene Climate Change and Public Health Workgroup










April 2015

April 2015

April 2015

42217

Delaware River Basin Commission


Newark City Mayor Office / Rockland County Coallition


State and Municipal Planners/General Public


City of Boston; Metropolitan Waterfront Alliance


Same as above 42217

The Trust for Public Land 42644

September 2015

41913

Same as above 41913



New York City Department of Parks and Recreation; New York City Department of Environmental Protection; Philadelphia Water Department; Philadelphia Department of Parks & Recreation; Philadelphia Mayor’s Office of Sustainability; Pennsylvania Horticultural Society


NYCDPR and GI planners and designers



41913

42036

43282

42064

42248

42674

NYCDPR and other organizations related to GI


The Trust for Public Land and organizations related to green infrastructure


NYCDPR and other organizations related to GI


Scientific Community, Practitioner and Government Institutions related to climate change and or green infrastructure and Community in General


NYC-EDC, NYC City Planning, NYC-OLTPS, Jersey City NJ


Corps of Engineers, New York City DEP


April 2016

April 2016

LLC., VT Department of Fish and Wildlife, City of Fitchburg Public Works Department, River Alliance of CT, Bear Swamp Power Company, LLC., City of Holyoke Gas and Electric Department, Town of Ashburnham Department of Public Works, CT Inland Water Resources Division, The Farmington River Power Co., L.S. Starrett Co., A & D Hydro Inc., Green Mountain Power, Brattleboro Water Department, Easthampton Water Sewer Department, Chicopee Water Department, Williamsburg Water Sewer Department, Westfield City Water Department, Palmer Water Department, Monson Town Water Department, Stratford Water Pollution, Bristol Water Department, Canaan Water Department, Keene City Water Department, Burlington Water Dep

April 2015 certain, extension expected


NYC Department of Environmental Protection




October 2014

42248

N/A

41974

43252



FEMA; New York City Office of Emergency Management, New York State OEM, Con Edison; The City of Boston’s Office of Environmental and Energy Services




New York City Mayor's Office of Long Term Planning and Sustainability


State and Municipal Planners/General Public


42004

41153

Research and stakeholder community

Decision Support Tool(s)Communication & OutreachData Tools, Maps and Information

Agricultural and ecological research community


42247

examples: (1) tribes, (2) forest service, (3) Bureu of Land Management (BLM), (4) US Fish and Wildlife Services (4) USGS, and (5) the NPLCC, similar state level agencies

31-May-2016 (original 29-February-2016

Decision Support Tool(s)Communication & OutreachPresentationData Tools, Maps and Information

Local, county, state, Federal agencies and governments, soil and water conservation districts, private industry


2013

42247

Local, state, federal water managers


BoR, Idaho DWR, water engineering consultant firm, U of Idaho extension faculty, canal companies in S. Idaho, farmers, ski resort operators, and recreation organizations


42247

Local residents, Tillamook County Community Development Office, Tillamook County Futures Council, Tillamook County Commissioners, Department of Land Conservation and Development, Neskowin Coastal Hazards Committee, Oregon Parks and Recreation Department


multiple ongoing

Decision Support Tool(s)Communication & OutreachPresentationData Tools, Maps and Information

PNW Region 2013

PNW Region 2013

PNW Region 2013

Communication & OutreachPublication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report)Data Tools, Maps and InformationOther: Knowledge and Impacts Assessment



41820

Urban water utilities, Seattle Public Utilities, Portland Water Bureau

Decision Support Tool(s)Communication & OutreachPublication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report)Data Tools, Maps and Information

41152

42247

groundwater managers 42247

US water resources region 17, Canadian headwaters of Columbia basin


Columbia Basin watershed managers

Decision Support Tool(s)Data Tools, Maps and Information


Irrigators, farmers 2013

ongoing


Federal, state, and local decision makers


42247

CEAC, agricultural and Sea Grant extension directors and agents from Idaho, Oregon, Washington


41912

2013

2014

Forest and public land managers in the PNW


Great Basin land and resource managers

Communication & OutreachData Tools, Maps and Information

State of Oregon, Department of Land Conservation and Development

Communication & OutreachPublication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report)Data Tools, Maps and InformationOther: Knowledge Mainstreaming

41791

2014

City of Eugene, City of Springfield, Oregon Partnership for Disaster Resilience (University of Oregon)

Decision Support Tool(s) Communication & OutreachPublication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report)Data Tools, Maps and InformationOther: Knowledge Mainstreaming"

City of Portland, Multnomah County

Decision Support Tool(s) Communication & OutreachPublication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report)Data Tools, Maps and InformationOther: Knowledge Mainstreaming

Benton County 2014

41897

Decision Support Tool(s) Communication & OutreachData Tools, Maps and InformationOther: Knowledge Mainstreaming

tribes or decision makers interested in working with tribes on climate adaptation

Communication & OutreachPresentationWhite PaperPublication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report)Data Tools, Maps and InformationAcademic Thesis

ongoing

41152

41152

September 2016

Researchers and practitioners in the US working on climate adaptation

Communication & OutreachData Tools, Maps and InformationOther: Stakeholder Network

Benton and Multnomah counties

Decision Support Tool(s) Communication & OutreachData Tools, Maps and InformationOther: Knowledge Mainstreaming

local and county elected leaders, emergency mgmt., public works, sustainability offices, public health

Communication & OutreachData Tools, Maps and InformationOther: Knowledge Mainstreaming

CoCoRaHS observers, Master Gardeners and Master Naturalists groups, drought managers and decision makers in NC and SC, US Drought Monitor authors, National Drought Mitigation Center

Communication & Outreach, Presentation, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report)

December 2015

September 2016

July 2015

USGS, The Nature Conservancy, US FWS (Waccamaw National Wildlife Refuge), coastal resources and land managers in NC and SC, drought managers and decision makers

Decision Support Tool(s), Communication & Outreach, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Data Tools, Maps and Information

State and federal agencies, local governments, stakeholders and decision makers affected by and responsible for managing drought


Beaufort County, SC blue crab fishermen

Decision Support Tool(s), Communication & Outreach, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report)

June 2015

Ongoing

Beaufort County, SC planning department

Communication & Outreach, Presentation, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Academic Thesis, U.S. Climate Toolbox Taking Action Case Study

City of Beaufort, SC; Town of Port Royal, SC


Ongoing

December 2015

Farmworker organizations, the National Weather Service, NC Division of Public Health

Decision Support Tool(s), Communication & Outreach, Presentation, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Data Tools, Maps and Information, Academic Thesis

State and federal agencies, shellfish and fisheries managers, local governments

Communication & Outreach, Presentation, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Data Tools, Maps and Information, Academic Thesis

December 2015

Ongoing

Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge managers; The Nature Conservancy; other stakeholders and communities located adjacent to or near the study area


This basin-wide approach to hydrological modeling appeals to a range of stakeholders, including water managers, natural resource managers (e.g. National Wildlife Refuges, state parks), Riverkeepers, citizen-advocates, Native American peoples, watershed groups and associations, non-profits, and state and national regulatory agency staff.

Decision Support Tool(s), Communication & Outreach, Presentation, Data Tools, Maps and Information

December 2015

December 2015

coastal resource and fisheries managers

Decision Support Tool(s), Communication & Outreach, Presentation, Data Tools, Maps and Information

Engineers, state and local regulatory agencies and other stakeholders who need additional information about projected changes to extreme rainfall events.

Communication & Outreach, Presentation, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Data Tools, Maps and Information

Ongoing

Ongoing

Ongoing

State agencies, county governments, municipal governments, formal and informal educators, extension agents, NGOs

Communication & Outreach, Presentation, Data Tools, Maps and Information

climate extension and outreach specialists; members of the Southeast and Caribbean Climate Community of Practice which includes individuals from local, state, and federal governments, academia, non-profit organizations and the private sector

Communication & Outreach, Presentation

State and federal agencies, local governments, stakeholders and decision makers in climate-sensitive sectors


Ongoing

December 2016

December 2015

Extension and outreach specialists

Decision Support Tool(s), Communication & Outreach, Presentation, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report)

Orange Water and Sewer Authority (OWASA)


NC Drought Management Advisory Council, NC Department of Environment and Natural Resources Water Resources Division, forest managers

Decision Support Tool(s), Communication & Outreach, Presentation, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Data Tools, Maps and Information

Ongoing

City of Folly Beach, SC February 2015

December 2014

State climate offices, local governments and water systems, state and local drought response committees, farmers, fire managers, other decision makers with interest in monitoring drought conditions

Decision Support Tool(s), Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Data Tools, Maps and Information


Climate Ready North Carolina Program at the NC Division of Public Health;Clean Air Carolina; Triangle Air Awareness; North Carolina Hospital Association; Piedmont Together


July 2016

Sept/2018

Federal Emergency Management Agency - Region 9; NOAA National Weather Service - Western Region

Presentation, Data Tools, Maps and Information

New Mexico Environment Department - Air Quality Bureau; New Mexico Department of Health - Border Health; City of Silver City; City of Las Cruces; NOAA-NWS Albuquerque, Santa Teresa, and El Paso Weather Forecast Offices; U.S. Army Research Laboratory-White Sands Missile Range; New Mexico Department of Transportation; U.S. Bureau of Land Management; U.S. Forest Service; The Joint Advisory Committee for the Improvement of Air Quality in the Paso del Norte; Agro Cultura Empresarial S.A. de C.V.

Presentation, Data Tools, Maps and Information, Media; Blog Posts; Videos; Workshops

Aug/2016 Academic Thesis

Jan/2016

June/2016

Sept/2016 None

Hopi Dept. of Natural Resources

General public, fellow scientists, practitioners, legislators, media.

White Paper, Data Tools, Maps and Information

Western Adaptation Cities (Salt Lake City, Park City, UT; Las Vegas, NV; Ft. Collins, Boulder, Lakewood, Denver, CO; Santa Fe, Las Cruces, NM; Flagstaff, Tucson, Phoenix, AZ; El Paso, TX)

Presentation, Data Tools, Maps and Information

City of Boulder, CO; City of Miami, OK

Jan/2016

Sept/2017 White Paper, Media

Academic researchers, managers of science-informed decisions, resource management agency professionals


New Mexico Interstate Stream Commission; U.S. Bureau of Reclamation; The Nature Conservancy, New Mexico; Upper Gila Watershed Alliance

CLIMAS Team, academics Dec/2015

Aug/2014

Presentation, Academic Thesis

The Nature Conservancy; Mountain Studies Institute; NOAA Climate Program Office

Presentation, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report)

Sept/2017

Sept/2017 Presentation

National Parks Conservation Association; U.S. Bureau of Reclamation; Central Arizona Project; Cotton Incorporated; Arizona Agri-Business Council; Yuma County Water Users’ Association; Greater Yuma Economic Development Corporation; Arizona House of Representatives, Agriculture and Water Committee; Arizona Farm Bureau; Wellton-Mohawk Irrigation District; Sonoran Institute; Environmental Defense

Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Podcast, Blog Posts; Workshop; Committee Service; Media

Cotton Incorporated; National Cotton Council; Tohono O’odham Nation

Sept/2017 Presentation, Media

N/A

Yuma County Water Users’ Association; Arizona Small Grains Research and Promotion Council

We send out the Outlook to about 1,600 active email addresses that span a very diverse audience, including people in the water sector, farmers, ranchers, research scientists, and interested citizens, among others.

Decision Support Tool(s), Communication & Outreach, Blog Posts; Social Media

Sept/2017

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation; U.S. Department of Agriculture; Arizona Department of Water Resources; Central Arizona Project; Salt River Project; New Mexico Office of the State Engineer; New Mexico Interstate Stream Commission; New Mexico State University; Lower Rio Grande Water Users Association; The Nature Conservancy; Western Resource Advocates; Environmental Defense; Sonoran Institute; ProNatura; Western Governors Association; Western States Water Council; National Audubon Society


June 2016

Santa Cruz County Health Dept.; Pima County Health Dept.; Pinal County Health Dept.; Arizona Dept. of Health Services


Sept/2017

Sept/2017

Farmers, ranchers, and resource managers (primarily Natural Resources Conservation Service and U.S. Dept. of Agriculture Farm Service Agency) in southeast Arizona

Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Workshop

Farmers, ranchers, and resource managers in AZ (primarily U.S. Dept. of Agriculture - Natural Resources Conservation Service; U.S. Bureau of Land Management; U.S. Forestry Service range managers)

Presentation, White Paper, Data Tools, Maps and Information

July 2014

Hopi Department of Natural Resources; Navajo Nation Department of Water Resources

Presentation, White Paper

Sept/2017

Sept/2017

Still developing Dec/2016 Presentation

Media, CLIMAS list-serv, local National Weather Service offices, general public

Communication & Outreach, Presentation, Blog Posts; Video; Podcasts

General outreach, other academics/practitioners/stakeholders, NOAA/RISA colleagues, other CLIMAS researchers, general academic audiences

Communication & Outreach, Blog Site

June/2016 None

June/2016 Presentation

Dec/2015 None

Aug/2015 Presentation

Tucson Electric Power (TEP), Other regional electrical utilities, University of Arizona - Institute of the Environment, University of Arizona Research Network

Borderlands Restoration L3C; Hummingbird Monitoring Network; U.S. National Park Service; U.S. Bureau of Land Management; U.S. Forestry Service


World Wildlife Fund; ProNatura; Sonoran Institute; Tucson Water; Agua de Hermosillo; U.S. Geological Survey; Comisión Nacional del Agua; Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales Agrícolas y Pecuarias

Sept/2017 Workshop

N/A Sept/2017 Presentation

water resource managers Sept/2015 None

researchers; water resources policymakers

Aug/2016

Sept/2017

State of Colorado; Salt River Project, Arizona; Denver Water, Colorado; Bureau of Reclamation - Lower Colorado District); NOAA - Colorado Basin River Forecast Center


academics and policy-makers

Communication & Outreach, White Paper

Sept/2017

Feb/2015 White Paper

Feb/2015

Feb/2015

CLIMAS Program, other RISAs, NOAA Climate Program Office


Navajo Forestry Department

Paleoclimatologists who use speleothems. Caving community.

Decision Support Tool(s), White Paper

Academics who want to turn their research into outreach communication tools.

Communication & Outreach, Video

Law professors Feb/2015

Aug/2015 None

K-12 teachers and students May/2015

White Paper, Class curriculum

Arizona Dept. of Health Services – Center for Disease Control


Aug/2015

Sept 2015

June 2016

This tool was developed for water resource managers in the state of California though a variety of people in the climate, meteorology, and resource management field have expressed interest in using it. Additionally, the tool can be run for any COOP station in the US so can be utilized by people outside of California as well.

Decision Support Tool(s), Communication & Outreach, Presentation

Emergency managers, resource and land managers, businesses, and the general public have used our work as a jumping off point for a variety of forums (e.g., recent Flood Awareness Week activities) and conversations about the extent to which the region and its particulars are needlessly vulnerable to major storm/flood episodes.

Communication & Outreach, Presentation, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Data Tools, Maps and Information

California water community, Bay-Delta science community, California water and environmental policymakers


June/2015

2016

Sept/2015

May/2016

Aug.2016

National Weather Service and Wildland Fire Agencies

Communication & Outreach, Presentation, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Academic Thesis

Federal resource managers, initially, mainly at DOI, e.g. NPS, BOR, BIA

Sept 2015, but will likely go into no-cost extension

Communication & Outreach, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Data Tools, Maps and Information

Stakeholders working natural resource managers, air quality, wildfire, water resource, and wildlife sectors in the Great Basin Region.


wildfire management agencies

Presentation, White Paper, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report)

Tribal Environmental Professionals


Resource managers (public and private) in the Great Basin

Communication & Outreach, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report)

May/2015

2015

Fire manage agencies, emergency management agencies and general public in southern California

Decision Support Tool(s), Presentation, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report)

Numerous stakeholders including water utilities, industries, NGOs, agencies, tribes, universities, and water users

Decision Support Tool(s), Communication & Outreach, Presentation, White Paper, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Data Tools, Maps and Information

2015

on-going

Dec/2015

State drought managers, regional water managers, the public Communication &

Outreach, Presentation, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report)

Federal and state wildland firefighters and leadership

Communication & Outreach, Presentation, White Paper, Data Tools, Maps and Information

Southwest and Great Basin Predictive Services

Decision Support Tool(s), Presentation, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Academic Thesis

March 2015

Apr/2015

Climate researchers, engineers, water managers, etc.

Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Data Tools, Maps and Information, Academic Thesis

National Weather ServicePredictive ServicesState air quality agenciesWildland fire management

Decision Support Tool(s), Presentation, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Academic Thesis

Aug/2016

on-going

Dec/2015

Sonoma and Mendocino County officials and agencies.


The LOCA downscaled climate projections will be widely used in California 4th climate assessment. The data will eventually be available through Cal-Adapt and through the US Bureau of Reclamation and available to the public. The data set provides a new climate projection resource allowing a diverse set of user to access infromation that important on regional scale.

Decision Support Tool(s), Presentation, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report)

California Depatment of Water Resources, potentially other water agencies throughout California.

Communication & Outreach, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report)

9/2016

12/2015

Management: Supporting Local Communities and Informing National Policy"This is a project funded through the NOAA COCA program and supported by the CNAP RISA. The aim is to provide guidance for incorporating sea-level rise (SLR) projections into planning and decision making for projects in California. incorporate information about potential sea-level rise impacts into guidance that is currently used by California’s Department of Water Resources (DWR) in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) administered by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The guidance will combine results from the recent National Research Council study (2012) of west coast sea-level rise with analysis of tide and wave runup projections.

Decision Support Tool(s), Communication & Outreach, Presentation, White Paper, Data Tools, Maps and Information

Greater Farallones National Marine Sanctuary

Communication & Outreach, White Paper, Data Tools, Maps and Information

May/2019

2015

Conservation planners (Owl habitat, Fisher, etc.). Authors revising Forest Management Plans and environmental impact statements. Forest, fuels and fire management planners.

Decision Support Tool(s), Communication & Outreach, Presentation, White Paper, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report)

Every county public health department in California are in the process of drafting their state-mandated climate adaptation plans.

Decision Support Tool(s), Communication & Outreach, Data Tools, Maps and Information

11/17Native American tribe members

Decision Support Tool(s), Communication & Outreach, White Paper

06/2016

12/15

Coastal communities and research community


Local municipalities in the York Region of Ontario

Decision Support Tool(s), White Paper, Data Tools, Maps and Information

12/15

12/15

Residents of low-income communities in Saint Paul, MN.

Decision Support Tool(s), Communication & Outreach, White Paper, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Preparedness tool kits, mini-grant

Agricultural producers throughout the Ohio River and Maumee River Watersheds

Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Data Tools, Maps and Information

12/15

Natural resource managers at The Menominee Conservation District andRed Lake Nation Band of the Chippewa Indians

Decision Support Tool(s), Communication & Outreach, White Paper

12/15

The immediate users will be city staff and elected officials in the City of Gary Indiana. The resulting protocol will benefit the full Great Lakes Saint Lawrence Cities Initiative membership which includes over 90 members cities in the Great Lakes region.


12/15

11/15

Aug/2015

Lake managers on Lake Ontario

Decision Support Tool(s), Communication & Outreach, White Paper, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report)

National Park Service staff at The Apolstle Island National Park

Decision Support Tool(s), Communication & Outreach

American Samoa Community College-ASPAAmerican Samoa EPA


Aug/2015

April 2018

American Samoa EPAAmerican Samoa Community CollegeASPA


GovGuam (agencies), US EPA, PACOM Naval Facilities Engineering Command(NAVFAC)


Aug/2015

Aug/2015

Decision makers, natural resource managers, academics, NGO’s, and community members in the greater Pacific Islands Region.


Stakeholders within the project are: City, county and state planning and natural resource management agencies (Hawai‘i Commission on Water Resource Management, County of Maui Department of Water Supply, County of Maui Planning Department, Hawai‘i Department of Agriculture, Hawai‘i Department of Land and Natural Resources), representatives from agriculture and ranching, Maui county watershed partnerships, the Nature Conservancy , and the National Park Service.


Aug/2015

Stakeholders include city, county and state planning and natural resource management agencies (Hawai‘i Commission on Water Resource Management, County of Maui Department of Water Supply, County of Maui Planning Department, Hawai‘i Department of Agriculture, Hawai‘i Department of Land and Natural Resources), representatives from agriculture and ranching, watershed partnerships, The Nature Conservancy, the National Park Service

Decision Support Tool(s), Presentation, Data Tools, Maps and Information

Principal stakeholders include the Pacific RISA team and collaborators, National Climate Assessment and US Global Change Research Program

8/15 (phase 2); 8/20 (phase 3)

Presentation, White Paper, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report)

undefined

Aug/2015

7/31/2015

Aug/2015

Hawaii State Department of Health

Decision Support Tool(s), Presentation

End users of this information will be National Weather Services and meteorologists and related state and county planning officials, natural resource managers, and local and regional decision makers.


Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC)


End users of this information will be National Weather Services, meteorologists and related natural hazard state and county planning officials

Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Data Tools, Maps and Information

none Aug/2015

Aug/2018

Water Utilities August 2014 Academic Thesis

Water Utilities August 2015

Decision Support Tool(s), White Paper

Freshwater managers in different sectors in American Samoa and the RMI

Decision Support Tool(s), Presentation, Data Tools, Maps and Information

Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Academic Thesis, Project Report Summary

May 2015

Ongoing

Ongoing

FEMA, USGS, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, Sea Grant. By Sector: Emergency Management Personnel, Planners, Engineers, Insurance Professionals, Storm Surge Modelers, Meteorologists, Oceanographers, Coastal Populations


FEMA, USGS, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, Sea Grant. By Sector: Emergency Management Personnel, Planners, Engineers, Insurance Professionals, Storm Surge Modelers, Meteorologists, Oceanographers, Coastal Populations


Local, regional, state and federal government officials, planners, engineers, emergency management personnel, insurance professionals, ecologists, hazard mitigation specialists


Ongoing

December 2015

Water Resource Managers July 2015 Academic Thesis

August 2015

08/2015

August 2015

Oil and gas industry, emergency management personnel, first responders, local municipalities near oil and gas facilities, coastal populations, insurance professionals, planners, engineers


Researchers, Agriculture sector

Communication & Outreach, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Academic Thesis

Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, US Fish & Wildlife Service, state and non-governmental-organizations involved in land management

Communication & Outreach, Presentation, White Paper, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Undergraduate Capstone Project

Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Climate Science Centers

Communication & Outreach, White Paper

Tribal Environmental professionals in Oklahoma and Texas


September 2016 None

August 2014

August 2014

Researchers 2017

July 2015

Emergency and water managers and related staff at the community level

forest managers, researchers

Presentation, Project Report Summary

Forest Managers, Researchers

Presentation, Project Report Summary

Data Tools, Maps and Information, Training

U.S., Mexican, and Canadian weather, water, and climate information providers, research scientists, and natural resource managers.

Communication & Outreach, Presentation, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Workshops

8/1/2016

On-going

On-going

9/1/2014

12/1/2014

9/1/2015

1. Alabama Farmers Federation2. Individual Farmers


1. Alabama Farmers Association 2. Individual Farmers

Decision Support Tool(s)







1. Traditional row-crop, organic, and minority agricultural producers


3/1/2016

9/1/2016

Ongoing

8/1/2016

10/1/2016

1. Extension faculty 2. Producers

Decision Support Tool(s), Communication & Outreach, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report)

1. Lower Flint River Soil and Water Conservation District2. USDA-NRCS3. Individual Farmers


1. Commodity Groups 2. Individual Farmers3. Agricultural Policy Makers

Data Tools, Maps and Information, Communication & Outreach

1. Alabama Farmers Federation 2. Office of the State Climatologist 3. State of Alabama Office of Water Resources


1. Individual Farmers 2. Individual Homeowners


3/1/2015

12/1/2015

12/2/2015

12/1/2016

8/1/2017

1. Commodity Groups 2. Individual Farmers3. Agricultural Policy Makers4. Extension agents and Ag consultants

Communication & Outreach, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Data Tools, Maps and Information

1. All water stakeholders in Alabama

Presentation, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Academic Thesis

1. Industrial Point Source Dischargers2. Environmental Protection Agency3. State Environmental Protection Agencies

Presentation, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Academic Thesis

1. All stakeholders in Alabama and in the ACF River Basin who are concerned with drought

Presentation, White Paper, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Academic Thesis

1. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency2. USDA Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS)land developers3. State and city water quality protection agencies

Presentation, White Paper, Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Academic Thesis

1. Southeast US 10/1/2016

Southern Florida 12/1/2017


Publication(s) (book &/or peer-reviewed publication &/or technical report), Decision Support Tool(s)

Ongoing

Loblolly pine plantations 9/1/2015

1. NOAA Climate Prediction Community

Data Tools, Maps and Information, Decision Support Tool(s)

Ongoing

USGS 08/2015

1. NOAA Climate Prediction Community


Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Downscaled climate projection data

9/1/2014

8/1/2014

1. Water resource managers in the Florida Water and Climate Alliance


1. Water resource managers in the Florida Water and Climate Alliance 2. Public utilities 3. Water Management District Partners

Data Tools, Maps and Information, Communication & Outreach

FloridaWCA 10/14/2015

Presentation, Publication(s) (book &/or peer-reviewed publication &/or technical report)

10/1/2015

5/1/2015

County Extension agents and Specialists in the Land and Sea Grant systems


1. Commodity Groups 2. Individual Farmers3. Agricultural Policy Makers

Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report), Data Tools, Maps and Information, Academic Thesis

06--16

06--16 Data Tools

TBD

Denver Water, ColoradoSprings Utilities, Northern Water Conservancy District, Aurora Water, City of Boulder Utilities, City of Fort Collins Utilities (collectively known as the Front Range Climate Change Group)


TBD from emergency preparedness community

Utah Division of Water Resources, Weber Basin Water Conservancy District, Jordan Valley Water Conservancy District


06--16

TBD

10--14 Other

General public 05--15

06--16

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), Wyoming State Engineer’s Office, Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) Snow Survey, various water managers across WWA region


Eastern Shoshone and Northern Arapahoe Tribes


National Renewable Energy Laboratory


Uintah-Wasatch-Cache National Forest, Ashley National Forest


07--14

03--15

06--17

06--16

Colorado Water Conservation Board; water managers and planners across the state of Colorado


Colorado Energy Office, Colorado Water Conservation Board, numerous other entities concerned with climate impacts in the state


The Nature Conservancy, US Forest Service, other conservation agencies



06--16

05--15

None

Potential use by USDA Northern Plains Climate Hub (still in discussion)


The Nature Conservancy and other agencies participating in conservation and climate adaptation efforts in southwestern Colorado


Water resources managers; anyone needing to monitor evolving weather, climate, and hydrologic conditions


Description of Deliverable(s)

seasonally-explicit decision support calendar for viewing and planning human resource capacities and possible climate risks simultaneously

peer reviewed publication released: J.T. Mathis, S.R. Cooley, N. Lucey, S. Colt, J. Ekstrom, T. Hurst, C. Hauri, W. Evans, J.N. Cross, R.A. Feely. Ocean acidification risk assessment for Alaska’s fishery sector. Progress in Oceanography, Available online 18 July 2014, ISSN 0079-6611

Peer reviewed publication:Frisch, L. J. Mathis, N. Kettle, and S. Trainor. 2015. Gauging perceptions of ocean acidification in Alaska. Marine Policy. 53:101-110.

Peer-reviewed articles, project report, and project presentations for stakeholders. Project in progress.

Peer-reviewed article submitted to journal such as the Journal of the American Water Resources Association

Online database of historical sea ice conditions in Alaska.

2 peer reviewed publications:Knapp, C. & Trainor, S.F. (2015): Alaskan stakeholder-defined research needs in the context of climate change, .Polar Geography

Corrine Noel Knapp, Sarah F. Trainor, Adapting science to a warming world, Global Environmental Change, Volume 23, Issue 5, October 2013, Pages 1296-1306.

Report for LCC and peer reviewed publication

Brown, Casey L., Corrie Knapp, and Sarah F. Trainor. Current Coastal Change Projects and Priority Information Needs in Western Alaska. Final Project Report. Fairbanks, AK.

Available: https://accap.uaf.edu/W_AK_LCC_Coastal_Change_Research

Monthly divisional temperature and precipitation anomaly data set for Alaska 1920-2012. One peer-reviewed publication in Journal of Climate.

Bieniek, P.A., J. E. Walsh, R.L. Thoman and U.S. Bhatt (2014). Using climate divisions to analyze variations and trends in Alaska temperature and precipitation. J. Climate, 27, 2800-2818.

Monthly webinar - available online and in-person

two workshops to develop and refine the scenarios, resulting in outreach and a report with mapped products. A third workshop will provide information to NSSI and agencies on monitoring needs and information gaps needed to assess changes resulting for infrastructure development on the North Slope.

Developed in collaboration with the National Weather Service, this tool is designed to provide information to the public about notable weather and climate events in Alaska and surrounding waters. Data reported are preliminary observations by NOAA/National Weather Service and are reported in daily, multi-day, monthly, and longer time scales.

Users can select date ranges, filter results by weather event type, click on individual events for further information about each event, and zoom in and out of the map. Events are added and updated in near real time.

1) Maps of the probability (per year) of inundation across each city2) Maps of flooding from specific extreme storm scenarios, also useful for planning

3) Additional research papers summarizing these results, including one that focuses on risk analysis for a single severe coastal flooding event that affects the entire Northeastern urban corridor

4) Documentation of our influence on the user community through our frequent communications with organizations (e.g. FEMA)

The mapping tool will provide the following functionality:a) Display maps illustrating geographic extent of flood inundation today, and for a variety of user-selected future sea levels and coastal adaptation scenarios.b) Ability to display and download summary statistics such as damage costs, or number of structures, residents, or critical facilities affected today and under each future scenario.c) Allow users to obtain map layers defining flood inundation and ecosystem extent as Web Mapping Services for inclusion in their online desktop GIS systems.

Same as above

Same as above

Development of an integrated Jamaica Bay water quality database; analysis of spatial and temporal patterns of water quality in Jamaica Bay; analytical tools for measuring resilience and detecting water quality regime shifts within Jamaica Bay in response to drivers and disturbances

1) Develop a knowledge network that links major urban areas and their broad expertise with smaller utilities serving moderately sized urban areas and rural areas; 2) Collect information related to specific water utilities’ climate risk exposure and verify current understanding of climate information needs; and 3) Co-develop a hydroclimate outlook that incorporates our knowledge of the Northeast region climate, the climate risk attributes of the water utilities in the region, and the expressed needs of our developing knowledge network.

Predictive models for urban Green Infrastructure (GI) performance including climate change impacts; new GI designs and test data; platform for real-time monitoring and control; experimental and observational data related to GI performance; agent-based models for GI decision-making; case studies on legal and regulatory structure for GI implementation; participant and evaluation data.

The final products will be a white paper with refined sea level rise, sea level rise plus storm surge, and stormwater inundation projections. This information will be used by the Client to develop GIS data that will be integrated into the GIS planning portal being developed with leadership by The Trust for Public Land and the New York City Department of Parks & Recreation for the purpose of identifying priority properties for green infrastructure (GI).

A) Use historical atmospheric data on wind speed, barometric pressure, and surface heat flux variables (air temperature, solar radiation, etc.) from NCEP’s North American Regional Reanalysis to supplement the NYHOPS tidal and hydrologic forcing starting in the 1970s. B) We will then compare the NYHOPS model hindcast to the observed changes in the physical and biological variables of LIS. These observations include temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, finfish and invertebrate trawl survey data, lobster larval survey data, and any non-proprietary lobster trap data to determine the potential biophysical mechanisms that are driving the observed regime shift in LIS. C) Next, we will compare the NYHOPS hindcast for LIS to a suite of large-scale climate indices including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation. The goal is to identify any relationship between the local climate and ecosystem of LIS and larger-scale climate variability. D) Finally, we will project the impacts of climate change on LIS by coupling the new GFDL global climate model to the much-higher resolution NYHOPS regional model of LIS. This model coupling will project the evolution of any contemporary climate – ecosystem – living marine resource connections identified in A through C up to the year 2100.

1. climate handouts for each project city with observed climate analysis and future climate assessments 2. climate science 'hangouts' presenting regional climate information 3. scientific literature review 4. climate science presentations to urban learning networks

Physical habitat model for the bottom of the Hudson River; Ecological assessment using contextual and habitat status data in order to help identify and prioritize habitats.

We will create high-resolution street-level urban heat island map for Manhattan,cCorrelate surface characteristics from LandSat to temperature effects.

We will construct a statistical model to predict local temperature variations, as well as develop new methodology to create temperature projections at a neighborhood scale. This information will be published in peer-reviewed journals.

Institutional maps and a report that describes decision making among stakeholders and identifies possible relationships between decision making and outcomes in Boston, Philadelphia and New York

1) Conduct a time series analysis of the relationship between daily concentrations of key allergenic pollen types and daily emergency room visits for asthma in New York City. 2) Monitor and map intra-urban spatial patterns of pollen taxa in New York City and analyze predictors of local tree pollen influx. 3) Conduct an epidemiologic analysis of the relationship between local tree pollen influx and allergic sensitization to tree pollen in two populations of NYC children.

Assess potential future impacts of high temperatures on mortality in NYC while incorporating novel projections of heat adaptaion and demographi change.

Quantify levels of indoor summertime heat and humidity in a cross-section of homes in New York City, and to examine the associations between outdoor and indoor temperature and humidity.

Identify social vulnerability patterns in NYC to understand which individuals and neighborhoods are most vulnerable, which can help guide local preparedness efforts

1) Plan for releasing water to relieve summertime thermal stress on local fish populations; 2) Assessment of the efficiency of the Supreme Court's "Excess Release Quantity" concept; 3) Assessment of whether water entitlement for New York City should be reduced

1) Comprehensive review of Newark water supply (Surplus analysis, demand variations, projected demand). 2) Optimization model of Newark Water supply and outlook under different climate and demand scenarios. 3) Water allocation recommendations

CIESIN is constructing GIS map layers defining social and economic vulnerability throughout the study area which will be used in conjunction with the flood inundation data to assess risk. These layers are being created from a combination of inputs including land use /land cover data, cadastral data, inventories of critical infrastructure, and a variety of social and economic indicators derived from the US Census 2010, SF1 and SF3 tables at the block group level.

1) Education modules that inform communities in 3 coastal neighborhoods in Boston about the risk of flooding due to storm surge and that launch a community-level discussion about preparedness and long-term adaptation. 2) Evaluation of the impacts of the education modules on awareness of risk of flooding from storm surge in the neighborhoods and on resilience-building actions. 3) Assessment of resilience to flooding driven by storm surge in urban neighborhoods based on analysis of data gathered through interviews and surveys in NYC neighborhoods heavily affected by Sandy. The study will identify factors that made some communities more resilient than others in the aftermath of Sandy, including factors that made some assistance efforts more effective than others, and develop lessons for building resilience to flooding in communities with different social and economic characteristics. 3) Lessons for designing preparedness and longer-term adaptation strategies for coastal communities.

(1) Maps of flooding height for several flood return periods for Boston and NYC and change in return period for two different sea level rise scenarios for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. (2) Maps of social vulnerability indices and non-map documentation of vulnerabilities to storm surge in NYC and Boston.

Survey data from residents will cover the following topics:1. Impacts that people experienced from the storm: loss of home, length of time without a home, costs of repairs, loss of income, length of time without power, the length of time that people suffered any of the following: exposure to cold, lack of light, difficulty getting food, difficulty getting water, difficulty getting access to medicine and medical care, inability to leave the house, inability to get to work, and health problems caused or exacerbated by the impacts of the storm. 2. Assistance received for relief and recovery after the storm and from whom. 3. Detailed data about people’s connections to others in the neighborhood.

A series of studies documenting: 1) The actual performance of various green infrastructure facilities under varibale climatic conditions; 2) Hydrologic and hydraulic modeling studies exploring the hydrologic response of different urban catchments to variable climatic conditions with and without GI facilities installed; 3) LCA studies performed at different scales mapping GI implementation to performance of larger water, stormwater and wastewater infrastructure systems; 4) Linkages of the above to stakeholder needs and interests

White paper summarizing performance of Nashville greenstreet during Hurricane Irene and Superstorm SandyHave compiled detail datasets on precipitation, runoff, soil moisture, and groundwater data depicting how the Nashville greenstreet responded to Hurricanes Irene and Sandy

Peer reviewed paper and Presentation in Conferences



Montlhy seminar series that webcast live as well as archived on the CCRUN website for future visualization

Peer-reviewed publication on the influence of harbor / ecosystem modifications on coastal flooding; Peer-reviewed publication on coastal adaptations for Jersey City

• A revised high-resolution version of the Jamaica Eutrophication Model calibrated and validated against two hydrodynamic and water quality data sets (1995/1996 and data from companion field studies conducted as part of this overall study of Jamaica Bay• Consortium access to utilize all the models and their calibrated Jamaica Bay settings at CUNY’s HPCC, with model user guides• Reports detailing the calibration/validation of the hydrodynamic/water quality models in Jamaica Bay, as well as the results from the model experiments performed as part of this study• Submission of a peer-reviewed publication comparing green and grey coastal flood adaptation impacts on waves, flooding and water quality

A basin wide daily time step model to investigate the possibility of regulation of reservoirs in the basin, the tradesoff between hydropower and environmental flow target, and the effects on infrastructure and floodplain ecosystems of operating to produce different degrees of natural flooding.

Climate and streamflow inputs to the New York City Water Supply System (NYCWSS) for current and climate change conditions based on a best choice of existing weather generator types.

Climate and streamflow inputs to the New York City Water Supply System (NYCWSS) for current and climate change conditions, with liikelihoods of occurrence based on climate projections and weather generator outputs.

Evaluation of the appropriateness of existing NYC operating rules under future conditions (including changes in weather patterns and land use.)

1. Posting of new ensemble flood forecasts on our existing Storm Surge Warning System; 2. peer-reviewed publication

Quantify levels of indoor summertime heat and humidity in a cross-section of homes in New York City, and to examine the associations between outdoor and indoor temperature and humidity.

1. climate risk information report 2. peer-reviewed publication documenting updated climate change projections

1) An open and integrated building footprints dataset for the 10 counties bordering the hudson north of NYC, and the 2 Long Island counties outside NYC.

Website that allows researchers to plot and download data from climate, hydrology, and vegetation models. A meeting with roughly 100 stakeholders. Meeting described project and its methods and how to use the project's data. Website that allows researchers to plot and download project data for climate, hydrology, and vegetation models employed by project.

New gridded dataset provides the primary meteorological variables needed for most agricultural and ecological applications. This Dataset has the following features:• Spatial Resolution: 4-km grid• Spatial Extent: Contiguous United States• Temporal Resolution: Daily (some sub-daily)• Temporal Extent: 1979-2014• Variables: (all variables are daily extreme/sums/means over a given calendar day)◦ Precipitation (amount and duration in 24 hours of the current day)◦ Temperature (maximum and minimum)◦ Humidity (maximum and minimum relative humidity and specific humidity)◦ Surface downward shortwave radiation (daily mean)◦ 10-meter Wind velocity (daily mean)• Definition of day: e.g. Jan 21 is 6Z Jan 21 to 6Z Jan 22• Format: netCDF adhering to Climate and Forecasting Metadata standards

Integrated Scenarios Data Portal: unified data from the IS project across climate, hydrology, and vegetation scenario data using CIDA Geo Data Portal (cida.usgs.gov/gdp), DataBasin (databasin.org), and other platforms, including creating web mapping and visualization tools

A dynamic, agent-based computer model used to quantify and anticipate water scarcity and model policy decisions in the Willamette River basin. Yearly workshops and numerous smaller meetings with stakeholders. http://water.oregonstate.edu/ww2100/workshops. Climate Scenarios: Base Case (current), Low Emissions, High Emissions, High Population Growth; Policy and Management Scenarios: Upland Wildfire Suppression, Relaxed Urban Expansion, Early Reservoir Refill, Full Cost Urban Water Pricing plus Extreme Change, Managed Change. Categories/Variables: Climate, Population, Forest Disturbance, Urban Development, Reservoir Operations, Urban Water Demand and Pricing, Crop Choice and Irrigation, Increased Water Delivery, Environmental Flows

Developing the Law of the River: The Integration of Law and Policy into Hydrologic and Socio-Economic Modeling Efforts in the Willamette River Basin, Kansas Law Review, Adell Louise Amos, Vol 62, 2014. Multiple presentations given, seminars arranged, and events held on this paper. http://law.ku.edu/sites/law.drupal.ku.edu/files/docs/law_review/v62/7%20KLR%20Site%20Amos_Final%20Press%20with%20Figure.pdf

Work with stakeholders to identify endpoints within the system that are important to represent in an alternative futures analysis and develop a baseline assessment of the Knowledge to Action Network. Propose a two-pronged modeling approach and established modeling subgroups among the KTAN to further review assumptions and the research approach. Use Envision to identify specific hydrological research priorities for the basin, development of decision theater to develop future scenarios themes to explore in the basin. A dynamic, agent-based computer model designed to help resource managers and stakeholders in the Big Wood River Basin, Idaho. A dynamic, agent-based computer model designed to help resource managers and stakeholders in the Big Wood River Basin, Idaho. Employing Envision, an agent-based modeling platform, iIncluding: 1) Conceptual Model with Endpoints, Components, Relationships; 2) System Dynamics Model with Simple, Feedbacks, Temporal Patterns; 3) Envision with Comprehensive, Spatial Patterns, Temporal Patterns feeding into Scenario Analsysis. "What If" Scenarios created around: Tourism Economy and Agricultural Economy compared to Low Basin Management and High Basin Management and driven by three climate scenarios out to 2060 (low change, warmer and wetter, hotter and drier). Create a Big Wood Data Atlas: http://envision.bioe.orst.edu/caseStudies.aspx

members in strategizing stakeholder. A dynamic, agent-based computer model designed to help planners and policy makers adapt to projected coastal hazards in Tillamook County, Oregon involvement in Idaho and Oregon Coast effort. Scenarios Developed: A) Climate Scenarios 1) Low Impact, 2) Medium Impact, 3) High Impact; B) Policy Scenarios: 1) Status Quo, 2) Hold the Line, 3) ReAlign, 4) Laissez Faire; C) Storylines: 1) Development, 2) Property Risk, 3) Public Good.What difference did this project make / capacity did it build? For whom?• Coastal managers/decision-makers/citizens are now exploring the impacts that both a changing climate and management policies have on the coast.• Coastal managers/decision-makers/citizens have begun to consider trade-offs, benefits, pros, cons, etc.• Moving towards a coproduced “preferred scenario” consisting of policies that can continue to help to build adaptive capacity in response to a changing coastline• NGO’s are engaged, have ‘material’ to advocate for scenario planning

What did we learn about coproduction of knowledge or one of its constituent components? Is coproduction a continuous or binary phenomena? • Can be difficult to fill coproduction vacuum – KTAN wanted more interaction; invited to participate in more events/give more talks than possible• Coproduction depends on who comes to the meetings; Not necessarily representative of all relevant voices

What changes in behavior, policy, and/or practice can we observe?• Significant amount of attention paid to ‘Neskowin Process’• Tillamook County passed Neskowin Adaptation Plan – currently under LUBA appeal• Tillamook County officials are actively looking to OSU/CIRC for information/guidance etc.• Tillamook County officials are actively seeking to promote messages from Tillamook County Coastal Futures Project

proven to be popular among CIRC’s Northwest stakeholders has proven popular with our readers.Project Accomplishments:• 1,696 (Current CIRCulator readership)• 34 -27 % (CIRCulator open rate – industry average is 16 %)• 15-17 % (CIRCulator click rate – industry 2.5 %)• CIRCulator stories are currently being reposted on the nonprofit Climate Central’s blog WXShift. CIRC was approached by WXShift editor, Brian Kahn, who is an active reader of our contentNorthwest Climate Magazine: In collaboration with communications leads at the Northwest Climate Science Center and the North Pacific LCC, CIRC communications created a magazine-style, joint newsletter to highlight our adaptation efforts and to explain climate science to a general readership of Northwest stakeholders. By all accounts, the publication of the magazine, which launched in May 2015, was a success.• 5,933 users clicked on the magazine link in their email • 5,556 Readers Opened the PDF of the Magazine• 1,093 clicked and shared individual story links• Magazine was shared by more than 12 partnersSocial Media and Press Releases: CIRC maintains an active presence on social media (Twitter and Facebook).• 788 (CIRC followers on Twitter)• 178 (CIRC followers on Facebook)• CIRC has created active social media identity, with links to other RISAs and relevant partners that clearly signify to end users our identity and affiliation• CIRC continues to work with media outlets at our affiliated universities to create press releases that highlight our researchers’ efforts

Chapter on Land Use and Cover Change in NCA report.

Northwest: Changes in the timing of streamflow reduce water supplies for competing demands. Sea level rise, erosion, inundation, risks to infrastructure, and increasing ocean acidity pose major threats. Increasing wildfire, insect outbreaks, and tree diseases are causing widespread tree die-off. http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/northwest

Report including chapters on water, agriculture, coasts, forests, climate, human health, and tribal.

Seattle will use MACA in their hydrologic model, Portland wants to run a hydrologic model - sensitivity to climate change analyses

What have CIRClearned? What difference did this project make? For whom?– The CONUS-wide version of the NW drought monitoring tool tool routinely is consulted as part of the CPC/NCEP/NOAA drought briefing– There was no clearly identified audience, collaborator, or outlet at least initially for the regional implementation– Targeted drought briefings 2014 and participation in drought calls 2015 appears to be a more effective way to reach out to water managers

What kinds of capacity were built? For whom?– At UW: High-resolution regional drought monitors – No capacity building component to drought monitor component itself outside of UW

What did we learn about coproduction of knowledge or one of its constituent components? Is coproduction a continuous or binary phenomena? – Did not engage in co-production

What changes in behavior, policy, and/or practice can we observe? – No formal evaluation of behavioral or practice changes – Drought monitor provides situational awareness and is one of many tools that water managers use in the evaluation of drought conditions in their area – Water managers like the ability to evaluate individual water balance components (snow versus soil moisture) which was specifically mentioned as being very useful, and played a role in changing drought status early this year

Hydrologic sensitivity analyses of subbasins within the Columbia River basin

a coupled VIC-MODFLOW framework, a tool to partition runoff, baseflow, reach gain/loss and recharge in the river basin.

to understand the impacts due to irrigation on the semi-arid land surface under a changing climate in Southern Idaho.

prioritize the 11 climate risks identified in the Oregon Adaptation Framework for the northern Oregon Coas. Role of Extension and RISA as Boundary Workers to support network: - Communication: Two way, occurring from experts to users and users to experts, iterative, and inclusive to a wide range of perspectives - Convening: Not just an invitation to a listserve: Bringing together of parties, via recruitment; personal or one-on-one engagement and explanation (why important and worth your time to participate)- Mediating: Ensure that collaborative efforts are transparent, accepting of differing perspectives, or helping to establish and enforce behavioral guidelines- Translating: Partly, technical to non-technical, but more broadly translating language differences between communities of practice (e.g. CFS, Acre feet, Miner’s Inch, days of water) or place (e.g. coastal residents and non-coastal residents) that may understand the same things but describe them differentlyTop 3-5 Risks:--sea level rise - coastal flooding/erosion--changes in streamflow/watersheds--forest/fire disturbance--economic effects--species shift

Management Objectives:--climate driver (e.g. SLR)--system response (e.g. erosion)--management objective (avoid infrastructure damage)

training regional extension faculty in fundamental climate science and projected regional impacts, climate science training workshops for each extension service to provide services related to direct extension community engagement to increase awareness of regional climate risks and adoption of available adaptation strategies among extension end users increasing the resilience of Pacific Northwest communities to a changing climate. Role of Extension and RISA as Boundary Workers to support network: - Communication: Two way, occurring from experts to users and users to experts, iterative, and inclusive to a wide range of perspectives - Convening: Not just an invitation to a listserve: Bringing together of parties, via recruitment; personal or one-on-one engagement and explanation (why important and worth your time to participate)- Mediating: Ensure that collaborative efforts are transparent, accepting of differing perspectives, or helping to establish and enforce behavioral guidelines- Translating: Partly, technical to non-technical, but more broadly translating language differences between communities of practice (e.g. CFS, Acre feet, Miner’s Inch, days of water) or place (e.g. coastal residents and non-coastal residents) that may understand the same things but describe them differently

None

(1) increase the institutional capacity of PNW public land managers to adapt current management practices to regional climate change and (2) transfer knowledge gained from successful partnerships to a wider audience so that others can learn from these efforts. Performed vulnerability assessments and developed adaptation tactics for forest vegetation, water, fisheries. Products and outcomes• Climate change thinking and awareness • Climate change partnerships• Data gathering and information sharing• Website (http://adaptationpartners.org)• USFS General Technical Report– Reference for climate change projections and effects– Menu of adaptation options• Journal articles• Follow-up projects in the region

The most important outcome is building organizational capacity to address the effects of climate change on natural resources

Making a Partnerships Work• Gain the support of agency leadership• Develop a sense of commitment and trust• Communicate well and often (especially face to face)• Negotiate a realistic schedule• Choose your battles wisely• Work with your neighbors – share your experiences

Series of forums and identified climate tools for use by land and resources managers in the basin

None

Update stakeholders' natural hazard mitigation plan: 1) Eugene/Springfield Hazards and Climate Vulnerability Assessment (2015) leading to Eugene/Springfield Multi-Jurisdictional Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan (2015); plus 3 docs: questionare/tool used to assess vulnerability, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of different sectors; users guide to the tool/questionare; results of the assessment. Hazard Vulnerability Systems Assessment Process:Risks:1. Population Affected2. Threat to Life3. Economic Disruption4. Ecological Disruption5. Social DisruptionSensitivities:1. Primary infrastructure2. Secondary infrastructure3. Capacity4. InterdependenciesAdaptive Capacity:1. Planning and upgrades2. Limiting factors and needs3. System interdependencies4. Capacity opportunities5. Adaptation and mitigation

Health risk assessment model and tool which helped to structure now completed Benton County Climate Health Adaptation Plan which CDC considerd model for other local plans, and also established basis for broader cross-sectoral adaptation planning in Benton County supported by the County Commission and now in process--plus continuing BRACE and ODH support for health adaptation planning in Benton County and other locations in Oregon that CIRC may support.Hatfield, Ph.D. (Siletz, Cherokee) interviewed experts from the Confederated Tribes of Siletz Indians of Oregon, the Quinault Indian Nation in Washington State, the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes in Montana, the Duckwater Shoshone in Nevada, and the Paiute in Utah. More specifically, Oregon State wanted to know whether tribes had noted any species depredation, and if so, how such species loss might be affecting traditional cultural activities. But the interviews yielded a lot more than the researchers anticipated, opening up new vistas for potential inquiry. “There is an emergence of Indian time tied to environmental effects, things such as budding out of plants, insect movements, animal migration or fluctuations in their patterns of behavior,” said Chisholm Hatfield, who is nationally recognized for her TEK specialization, in an exclusive interview about the findings with Indian Country Today Media Network. “Native communities are very tied to the environment, and these behaviors are signals, an alarm clock in a sense, that comes across similarly to a calendar, and again in a very timely manner. I guess like 3-D for Native people. It’s not linear like it is for non-Native societies.” Chisholm Hatfield said she was ecstatic upon finding a way to document what’s known as “Indian time.” While the original research did not target the depredation of specific species, Chisholm Hatfield and fellow researcher Philip Mote, Ph.D., a climate scientist and the study’s principal investigator, conducted semi-structured interviews and watched for patterns to emerge as a result.“What we found is that things are essentially being put on hold or renewed in a cyclical fashion,” said Chisholm Hatfield. “It’s more of a renewal or resurgence philosophy. Here in the Northwest, certain things came up, such as salmon, eels, that sort of thing.” Read more at http://indiancountrytodaymedianetwork.com/2015/09/17/indian-time-documentable-according-recent-study-oregon-state-university-161765

Access to a network of climate adaptation researchers and practitioners with profiles; 5 affinity groups on research, policy, communications, information, and projects and evaluation; Prize for Progress; National Adaptation Forum sponsorship and support

TRIG will show how local and regional climate data can support planning within the public health sector.

Understanding of current adaptation practices and tools, available scientific information to support adaptation planning and decision making

Communications and Outreach: Maintaining regular communications with volunteer observers in order to provide ample training and education materials and retain participation for a full year has been a key component of the project. This has been done through in-person and webinar trainings, a project webpage, monthly newsletter, project blog, project materials tailored for specific groups (e.g., Master Gardeners), and quarterly conference calls with observers. Outreach materials are designed to educate participates about the project as well as drought and citizen science, more generally.

Presentation: Several presentations about the project have already been made to a variety of stakeholder and research audiences.

Publications: Reports to NIDIS; manuscripts about coastal drought impacts, use of citizen science for monitoring drought impacts

Decision Support Tool(s), Communications & Outreach: A needs assessment with coastal natural resource managers was conducted to better understand coastal drought management and contribute to the development of the coastal drought index, which can be used in monitoring drought conditions, managing impacts and adaptation planning.

Publication(s): Report to NIDIS; manuscripts about ecological indicators of coastal drought

Data Tools, Maps and Information: The linkages between coastal ecosystems, drought and salinity will be evaluated and used to inform the development of ecological indicators of coastal drought.

Decision Support Tool(s); Data Tools, Maps and Information: A web portal will be the end product to share maps, graphics and contextual information from the data analysis. In order to support drought-related decision making, the atlas will provide information on related impacts (e.g., crop yield), connecting climate variability to management and coping decisions.

Communication & Outreach: Information about the research and findings will be provided to local, state and regional decision makers. Iterative interactions with stakeholders will help to inform the end product.

Publication(s): Reports to NIDIS

Decision Support Tool(s): The “Crabbers Who Care” research network was established to collect environmental and fishery data. CISA provided refractometers for each member, allowing for real-time salinity measurements. Data collected by volunteers are also used to calibrate an individual-based blue crab model to help inform how different environmental (e.g., water conditions, predation) and societal (e.g., crab fishery) conditions impact blue crab populations. The model is also designed to inform how future climate conditions (i.e., changes in precipitation regimes which influence salinity levels) might also impact the fishery.

Communications & Outreach: During the project period, interviews, VCAPS workshops, and a system dynamics workshop were held with blue crab fishermen in Beaufort County, SC to document and assess the effects of drought on the blue crab industry. Publications(s): Project report, comparative case study of three communities

Communication & Outreach: Stakeholder input and feedback during preliminary interviews, VCAPS exercises and public workshops contributed to the final sea level rise adaptation strategies recommendations developed for Beaufort County.

Presentation: Multiple presentations have been given to a variety of stakeholder audiences sharing this case study for the development of adaptation strategies in a coastal community.

Publication(s): A final report was delivered to the Beaufort County Planning Department in May 2015 which details local vulnerability to sea level rise, the community input process, a prioritized list of 23 adaptation strategies, case studies from other communities faced with similar challenges and tools to facilitate implementation.

Academic Thesis: Bath, S. 2015. A Participatory Approach to Preparing for Sea Level Rise in Beaufort County, South Carolina. Master's Thesis, College of Charleston, Charleston, SC.

U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit Taking Action Case Study: http://toolkit.climate.gov/taking-action/lowcountry-lowdown-sea-level-rise

Communication & Outreach: CISA team members participate in regular meetings with task force members to help identify areas within the communities vulnerable to future impacts of sea level rise, to consider potential adaptation strategies and to determine key local government decision makers with whom to engage.

Decision Support Tool(s); Data Tools, Maps and Information: Working with data from the NC Disease Event Tracking and Epidemiologic Collection Tool (NC DETECT), researchers are developing empirical relationships which can be exploited to build a public health toolbox that translates recent, current and predicted weather/climate conditions across North Carolina into useful information regarding the probability of public health emergencies. Maps and graphics are produced to visualize climate-public health vulnerabilities across different regions (e.g., coastal plain, Piedmont, mountains) and populations (e.g., rural vs. urban).

Communication & Outreach: Stakeholder workshops are held to demonstrate utility of the tool in assessing connections between climate and public health and to share research findings related to heat stress vulnerability.

Presentation: Multiple presentations have been given to a variety of stakeholder audiences to demonstrate the tools capabilities and to share research findings related to heat stress vulnerability.

Publication(s): Peer-reviewed journal articles

Academic Thesis: Kovach, M. 2015. Climate-Human Health Vulnerability: Identifying Relationships between Maximum Temperature and Heat-Related Illness across North Carolina, USA. PhD Dissertation, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC.

Communication & Outreach; Presentation: Information developed through this project is provided to public health officials, resource managers, local government and state agency officials through presentations at regional meetings and in other venues.

Publication(s): Journal manuscript based on Master's thesis work is in progress.

Data Tools, Maps and Information: An assessment of the potential for upriver movement of Vibrio as salinity and temperature increase in the future. DNA sequencing is being conducted to determine the virulence of the Vibrio samples.

Academic Thesis: Deeb, R. 2013. Climate Change Effects on Vibrio Bacteria in the Winyah Bay Estuary and the Projected Spread of Vibrio under Future Climatic Scenarios. University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC.

Decision Support Tool(s): Information about vegetation change (and detection of such change) will be designed for use by Refuge managers to plan current and future management activities for wildlife habitat, carbon sequestration, recreation and education. Researchers will work with Refuge managers to integrate results into the ARNWR Habitat Management Plan, directly impacting current and future decision-making regarding hydrology control, vegetation and wildlife. Findings will also complement the existing climate change research program at ARNWR.

Communications & Outreach: To engage local and regional stakeholders, a public outreach event was held at ARNWR headquarters (Roanoke Island, NC) in December 2014.

Presentation: Several presentations about the project have already been made to a variety of stakeholder and research audiences.

Data Tools, Maps and Information: Findings will complement the existing climate change research program at ARNWR.

Publication (s), Academic Thesis: This project supports one master's student and thesis. Additional master's theses and one Ph.D. dissertation are also using information generated by components of the project. It is expected that findings will be included in scientific papers and journal articles.

Decision Support Tool(s), Data Tools, Maps and Information: CISA researchers are using EPA’s BASINS Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Soil and Water Analysis Tool (SWAT) model to simulate the Yadkin Pee-Dee, Waccamaw, and Black Rivers at the 8-digit HUC level. These basin-wide models have been used to aid in assessing salinity intrusion in the future for public water supply managers along the Waccamaw River, the occurrence and potential range expansion of Vibrio in the Winyah Bay estuary, and the drivers of dissolved oxygen dynamics in the Waccamaw River watershed. Model skill has also been tested with four different rainfall disaggregation methods to improve understanding of the sensitivity of hydrologic models to temporal patterns of rainfall and the selection of proper disaggregation methods.

Communication & Outreach; Presentation: Several presentations about the project have already been made to a variety of stakeholder and research audiences.

Decision Support Tool(s); Data Tools, Maps and Information: The future streamflow forecasts produced for the Edisto River will be used as input to an individual-based blue crab population model. This model has been developed by Michael Childress (Clemson University) to help inform how different environmental (e.g., water conditions, predation) and societal (e.g., blue crab fishery) conditions impact blue crab populations. The model is also designed to inform how future climate conditions (i.e., changes in precipitation regimes which influence salinity levels) might also impact the fishery.

Communication & Outreach; Presentation: Findings from the modeling project and resulting output of the blue crab forecast model will be provided to stakeholders through presentations and meetings.

Data Tools, Maps and Information: A combination of four General Circulation Models (GCMs) and six Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) were used to evaluate performance across the United States. Researchers compared model output for twelve regions in the continental U.S. with relatively homogenous annual maximum 24-hour rainfall patterns using Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves.

Communications & Outreach, Presentation: Presentations about the project have been made to research audiences.

Publication(s): A manuscript is in review.

Information is provided in one-on-one consultations, fact sheets, presentations, and other formats to help decision makers make more informed decisions that account for climate variability and climate change. Current projects include: 1) providing assistance and a local perspective in the planning of a Department of Homeland Security Office of Infrastructure Protection Climate Change Adaptation Exercise, which took place in Charleston, SC, in June 2014, 2) participating as a founding member in the Charleston Resilience Network, which includes a variety of local and state-level stakeholders working to collaboratively inform and enhance long-term planning decisions in consideration of future climate change and sea level rise impacts in the Charleston region, and 3) providing support to the National Academy of Sciences Resilient America initiative to plan a workshop, held in April 2015, that launched a three-year pilot program in the Charleston region.

Over the past year, co-chairs Fly and Brennan have supported the CCoP through a monthly e-mail round-up of webinars, events, and other resources of interest to CCoP members, information sharing via the StormSmart webpage, and organization of two webinars, “Risky Business: The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States” and “Leveraging the Community Rating System for Climate Adaptation.” Fly and Brennan have also participated in other workshops in order to bring resources and information to the CCoP. These include the Community Rating System workshop (Carl Vinson Institute of Government, August 28, 2014) and the Gulf of Mexico Climate Community of Practice annual meeting (May 19-21, 2015). The team submitted a proposal to the National Sea Grant Office in June 2015 to support an in-person CCoP workshop in which CRS and climate adaption will be a key topic.

Specific deliverables include a quarterly newsletter entitled the "Carolinas Climate Connection", Carolinas climate listserv, social media, webinars, fact sheets and presentations.

Publications to include white papers, reports, and journal articles about case studies and adaptation processes in the Carolinas.

Decision Support Tool(s): VCAPS is a participatory modeling process used to help communities engage in dialogue about weather and climate impacts, integrate local knowledge and experiences with scientific information, and think strategically about actions to address climate-related threats.

Communication & Outreach; Presentation: Presentations have been given to a variety of stakeholder and research audiences.

Publication(s): Two manuscripts about the VCAPS methodology and learning process have been published. A book chapter is in press.

Decision Support Tool(s); Data Tools, Maps and Information: The project will involve developing a hydrologic model of stream flows into the utility's reservoir. When integrated with OWASA's existing yield model, they hydrologic model will allow the simulation of climate change impacts in terms of the system performance metrics that are directly relevant for long-term planning.

Communication & Outreach: Researchers are working collaboratively with OWASA utility representatives in an iterative process of project design, model development, and determination of water supply metrics and scales against which to measure future reliability under climate change scenarios.

Presentation: Presentations about the project have and will be made to a variety of stakeholders and research audiences.

Decision Support Tool(s); Data Tools, Maps and Information: Experimental High Resolution Drought Trigger Tool (http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/drought), a web-based SPI mapping and monitoring tool, using NWS multi-sensor precipitation estimates (MPE)

Communication & Outreach; Presentation: Presentations to the NC Drought Management Advisory Council, the American Association of State Climatologists, Regional Climate Centers and other stakeholders and research audiences. Additional outreach includes guidance for and communications (blog posts) to users of the SPI web tool

Publication(s): Technical instructions for using the tool have been completed (http://www.ncclimate.ncsu.edu/spi/SPI_HowToDocument.pdf); research reports and journal articles to be developed

Decision Support Tool(s); Data Tools, Maps and Information: A Dynamic Drought Index Tool (DDIT) that covers eighteen states in the U.S.

Publication(s): Eight journal articles dealing with some aspect of the DDIT, from its theoretical underpinnings, to its practical use have been published. We have written a chapter for the RISA "Climate in Context" book, documenting issues associated with the transferability, scalability, and expandability of the Dynamic Drought Index Tool to a broader audience. It reports on the implications of this expansion for the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and lessons learned about technology transfer, incorporating regional stakeholder needs and decision support preferences in the natural resources and water management sectors, and enhancements to decision support tools for effective use by stakeholders.

Fly worked with the SC Sea Grant Consortium’s Coastal Processes Extension Specialist to provide technical support at planning meetings and input on the LCBMP. This included beachfront monitoring and erosion data in GIS and .KMZ (Google Earth compatible) formats, as well as additional mapping and survey support. An inventory of all beachfront structures was completed and used to produce GIS products for use in the plan. Folly Beach also consulted with the extension specialists on possible alternatives or enhancements to their renourishment strategy.

Communication & Outreach; Presentation: Findings regarding climate change-related health impacts were communicated through presentations, meetings and webinars to local, county and state stakeholders.

Publication(s): Journal articles, technical report about the project

1) Decision Support Tool Development of a climate dashboard that presents historical hydroclimate risk, current climate conditions, and information about future climate. Currently, NWS is writing monthly climate narratives that describe the climate context and refer to the images and FEMA watch office is viewing the dashboard monthly. http://www.climas.arizona.edu/content/fema-dashboard-2

2) PresentationCrimmins, M. 2015. Climate Information for Disaster Management: Bridging the Weather and Climate Timescales. Guest Lecture for Flood Hydrometeorology & Hydroclimatology – Implications for Global Change and Extreme Hydrology, Univ. of Arizona Dept. of Hydrology and Water Resources. Tucson, AZ, April 2015.University. Las Cruces, NM, March 2015.

Engle, S., E. Smith, and D. DuBois. 2015. Our Experience with Designing and Deploying Low Cost Meteorological Networks for Agriculture. 13th Annual Climate Predictions Applications Science Workshop. New Mexico State University. Las Cruces, NM, March 2015.

DuBois, D. 2015. A Perspective on Drought Information Services at a State Climate Office. 10th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice. 95th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society. Phoenix, AZ, January 2015.

DuBois, D. 2014. New Mexico Report 2014 Activities. American Association of State Climatologists Annual Meeting. Skamania, WA, July 2014.

5) MediaNumerous interviews, with a frequency between one or two a week, including the Las Cruces Sun-News, Albuquerque Journal, Las Cruces Bulletin, El Paso Times, National Public Radio, KRWG radio and TV.

6) VideosVideos published on the NM Climate Center’s Youtube channel to support outreach on climate, air quality, and projects at the NM Climate Center (https://www.youtube.com/NMClimate). Additional videos produced for Master Gardener program to show them how to access data sources discussed during their climate workshops. Videos were archives of the NM Drought Monitoring Work Group monthly call.

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PublicationFerguson, D. 2015. Transdisciplinary Climate Research to Support Decision Making. Ph.D. Dissertation. University of Arizona - School of Geography and Development.

1) PublicationLiverman, D., G. Garfin, S. Doster, K. Bao, F. Gladstone, J. Krosnick, B. MacInnis, and J. Overpeck. 2015. Arizona's Views on Climate Change - Executive Summary. Institute of the Environment, Tucson, AZ. http://www.environment.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/climate-survey/ExecutiveSummary.pdfThis report summarizes the results of a public opinion survey that was commissioned by the University of Arizona and Stanford University to provide a better understanding of how the Arizona public views climate change. This report improves our understanding of stakeholder attitudes on a key climate and environmental issue.

2) Website:Arizona’s Views on Climate Change website provides an overview of the project, methods, and results: http://www.environment.arizona.edu/climate-survey

1) Data Base:Includes data on climate extremes, impacts, preparedness, and response measures for five hazards: wind, heat, drought, flood, and fire. Stakeholders indicated that they do not have this information in a coordinated, centralized manner.

2) Presentations:Garfin, G. and S. Leroy. 2015. Climate Extremes and Resilience for Intermountain West Cities. National Adaptation Forum. St. Louis, MO, May 2015. http://www.nationaladaptationforum.org/

Garfin, G., S. Leroy, and R. Tucci. 2014. Increasing Adaptation Resilience to Climate Extremes. CALS Poster Forum. Tucson, AZ, November 2014.

PublicationFinal manuscript of book sent to publishers in May 2015. Book set to be published in January 2016.

1) PublicationGarfin, G., H. Chang, and M. Switanek. 2014. Chapter 3. Climate and Hydrology of the Upper Gila River Basin. In D. Gori, M. Cooper, E. Soles, M. Stone, R. Morrison, T. Turner, D. Propst, G. Garfin, M. Switanek, H. Chang, S. Bassett, J. Haney, D. Lyons, M. Horner, C. Dahm, J. Frey, K. Kindscher, H. Walker, and M. Bogan. Gila River Flow Needs Assessment. A report by The Nature Conservancy. The Nature Conservancy in New Mexico, Santa Fe. (http://nmconservation.org/Gila/GilaFlowNeedsAssessment.pdf) In this chapter, we examined historic and projected records of climate factors for the Southwest, with a focus on the upper Gila River Basin in New Mexico. This work addresses the climate change information needs of stakeholders in the Gila River Basin in New Mexico. Stakeholders include multiple NGOs (e.g., The Nature Conservancy; Gila Conservation Coalition), private sector consultants (e.g., Western Resource Advocates), citizens in the Upper Gila River Basin, state and federal agencies (e.g., NM Interstate Stream Commission; US Bureau of Reclamation; US Fish & Wildlife Service) concerned with New Mexico’s allocation of its Gila River allotment.

2) Media: Villagran, L. 2014. Gila diversion’s price tag one of many unknowns. Albuquerque Journal. August 24, 2014. Fleck, J. 2014. Stream commission votes to divert water from Gila River. Albuquerque Journal. November 24, 2014.

1) PublicationHammersley, M. 2014. Fostering Conducive Conditions for Climate Assessments: Collaborative Scenario Planning and the Colorado River Basin Study. Water, Society, and Policy Master's Thesis. School of Natural Resources and the Environment, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ.We examined the scenario planning process in Reclamation’s Colorado River Basin Supply and Demand Study, and found that scenario planning partly improved multi-party cooperation and acceptance of climate change as a legitimate resource planning issue. The study met a general stakeholder need for understanding the efficacy of scenario planning for climate change adaptation planning.

2) PresentationHammersley, M. 2014. Fostering Conducive Conditions for Climate Assessments: Collaborative Scenario Planning and the Colorado River Basin Study. Master’s Thesis Presentation. University of Arizona – School of Natural Resources and the Environment. Tucson, AZ, December 2014.

1) PublicationMeadow, A. and J. Brugger. 2015 (accepted). Lessons from First Generation Climate Science Integrators. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

2) Presentations:Brugger, J. and G. Garfin. 2015. Building the Capacity for Climate Services: Best Practices for Next Generation Climate Science Integrators. 2015 American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting. Phoenix, AZ, January 2015.

Garfin, G., J. Brugger, E. Gordon, J. Barsugli, I. Rangwala, W. Travis, K. Clifford, and A. Meadow. 2015. Building the Capacity for Climate Services: Best Practices for Next Generation Climate Science Integrators. 2015 RISA Program Annual Meeting. Charleston, SC, January 2015.

Garfin, G., J. Brugger, E. Gordon, J. Barsugli, I. Rangwala, W. Travis, K. Clifford, and A. Meadow. 2015. Building the Capacity for Climate Services: Best Practices for Next Generation Climate Science Integrators. CLIMAS Colloquium. Tucson, AZ, May 2015.

3) WorkshopHelped organize and moderated a panel presentation on climate, drought, and water at the February 13, 2015 meeting of the Ag 100 Council in Yuma. The Ag 100 Council is a group of state agri-business leaders. Panelists included G. Garfin (CLIMAS), R. Glennon (Univ. of Arizona – College of Law), and G. Walker (Arizona Dept. of Water Resources). The Ag 100 Council members have many question and concerns about future Colorado River shortages and how that might trigger policy changes that would negatively affect them.

4) ServiceParticipated in a May 14, 2015 workshop organized by the Water Funder Initiative, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the Walton Family Foundation, and the S.D. Bechtel, Jr. Foundation, hosted by the Kyl Center at Arizona State University. The leaders of this Water Funder Initiative sought input from 10-12 of “the field’s top experts” for a “formative brainstorming workshop focused on the situation and perspectives in the Lower Basin of the Colorado River.” A major goal was to solicit input on where philanthropic organizations could play the most useful roles if solving western water management problems.

5) MediaRadio: Participated in radio panel discussion for High Country News’ Sound Table program on April 8, 2015 (with J. Overpeck and P. Mulroy). The program was called, “Are we in a megadrought, and if so how do we secure a well-watered future for the American West?” It was aired by NPR affiliates and other community radio stations in Western Colorado, Southern Utah, Southern Nevada, and Northern Arizona. http://azhydrosoc.org/water-in-the-news/

1) PresentationsFrisvold, G. 2015. Climate Policy as Water Policy: Water Quality & Conservation. The University of Arizona College of Law Environmental Breakfast Club. Tucson, AZ, February 2015.

Frisvold, G. 2015. Energy Production on and near Agricultural Lands: A Threat, an Opportunity …or Both? National Land Conference. Tucson, AZ, March 2015. This was a presentation with a question and answer session with about 25 real estate professionals.

1) MediaSimons, A. and G. Frisvold. 2014. Sustainability of desert grain production is an emerging factor in customers’ buying decisions. Arizona Grain Research and Promotion Council Annual Newsletter. Fall 2014. This op-ed article discussed the challenges of developing “water footprint” and “sustainability” measures for water use in the desert Southwest.

2) PresentationFrisvold, G. 2015. Sustainable Wheat Production: What Does It Mean? How is it Measured? The National Pasta Association Annual Meeting. Phoenix, AZ, March 2015. More food processing companies are adopting their own environmental standards based on carbon footprints and water footprints. The talk was to educate grain producers and food industry executives about different sustainability measures used in private industry and what public data says about grain production sustainability.

1) Decision Support:The Southwest Climate Outlook newsletter (SWCO) synthesizes and interprets climate and climate impacts information specific to the U.S. Southwest. This project has been on going since 2002 and began in response to stakeholder demand and was tailored with stakeholder feedback. Since then, SWCO has been operational without direct input from users. Monthly issues are found here: http://www.climas.arizona.edu/swco.

2) Online ContentSWCO content was also published online in Southwestern Oscillations (the CLIMAS blog). Content included SWCO Feature articles (http://www.climas.arizona.edu/blog-category/4) and climate summaries and outlooks (http://www.climas.arizona.edu/blog-category/2).

3) Social MediaA number of interactions occur across social media regarding SWCO content. In particular, key points from SWCO articles have been tweeted/shared on social media by members of our regional network. This has also begun to expand to larger networks via tweets/retweets outside of our own network of followers.

Colorado River Basin: Innovations in Water Banking. USDA-National Institute for Food and Agriculture Conference. Tufts University, June 2014. Provided information on economic tools and potential responses to climate effects on water supply and demand to audience of water resource professional and stakeholders.

Building Climate Change Resilience Into Water Sharing Agreements. Universities Council on Water Resources Annual Conference. Boston, MA, June 2014. Provided information on economic tools and potential responses to climate effects on water supply and demand to audience of water resource professional and stakeholders.

Water Banks: Protecting Colorado's Economy from Drought Impacts. Invited Testimony for Colorado Legislative Hearing. Denver, CO, August 2014. Provided information on economic tools and potential responses to climate effects on water supply and demand to audience of elected officials, water resource professional and stakeholders.

Designing Economic Incentives to Improve Water Supply Reliability. University of New Mexico Water Policy Conference. Albuquerque, NM, October 2014. Provided information on economic tools and potential responses to climate effects on water supply and demand to audience of water resource professional and stakeholders.

Using Economic incentives to Address Water Challenges. Colorado River Research Group Workshop. Tucson, AZ, January 2015. Provided information on economic tools and potential responses to climate effects on water supply and demand to audience of water resource professional and stakeholders.

1) Publications: Ernst, K., C. Morin, and H. Brown. 2014. Extreme Weather Events and Vector-borne Diseases. In R. Watson et al. Public Health in Natural Disasters: Nutrition, Food, Remediation and Preparation. Netherlands: Wageningen Academic Publishers.

Brown, H., A. Comrie, J. Tamerius, M. Khan, J. Tabor, and J. Galgiani. 2014. Climate, Windstorms, and the Risk of Valley Fever (Coccidioidomycosis). In The Influence of Global Environmental Change on Infectious Disease Dynamics. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 266–282.

2) Presentations by H. Brown:2014. Habitat and Abundance Modeling of West Nile Virus Vector. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics Conference on the Life Sciences. Charlotte, NC, August 2014.

2014. Climate Change and You(r Health Arizona). Univ. of Arizona Environment Science Café. Tucson, AZ, October 2014.

2014. Challenges and Spatial Modeling of Vector-Borne Disease Surveillance Data. Symposium on Arid Lands, Food Security, and Health. Tucson, AZ, October 2014.

2014. Climate Change and Health. Wilderness Medical Society Annual Conference.

1) PublicationCrimmins, M. 2014. Tracking climate and drought across Southeast Arizona. Farm and Ranch Weather and Climate Workshop. Willcox, AZ: University of Arizona Cooperative Extension & NOAA National Weather Service.

2) WorkshopsFarm and Ranch Weather and Climate Workshop. Willcox, AZ, June 2014. About 25 attendees including local growers and resource managers. Workshop evaluations indicated that most attendees learned about new tools and resources available online to help them track drought and identify freezing event risks. http://cals.arizona.edu/climate/ws/seaz2014.html.

Planning for and Managing Frost and Freeze Events using Weather and Climate Information. Willcox, AZ, November 2014. Follow up to the initial workshop in June 2014. Ten attendees including orchard and vineyard owners discussed the need for different types of frost and freeze forecasting tools. This led to the development of point forecast matrix tool (NWS) that connected observations from the Arizona Meteorological Network stations to try and improve minimum temperature observations near existing agricultural areas.

1) DroughtView Website: http://droughtview.arizona.edu

2) PublicationCrimmins, M. 2014. DroughtView: New Tools for Monitoring Drought across Arizona. Arizona Governor’s Drought Interagency Coordinating Group. Phoenix, AZ: Arizona Department of Water Resources.

3) PresentationHartfield, K. et al. 2014. DroughtView: Satellite Based Drought Monitoring and Assessment. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. San Francisco, CA, December 2014.

1) PublicationThree issues of the Quarterly Hopi Drought Status Report. Published in June, September, and December of 2014. Published by Hopi Dept. of Natural Resources. Crimmins provided content and maps for each report.

2) PresentationsCrimmins, M. 2014. Rain Days to Dry Spells: Exploring New Ways to Track Drought Across the Southwest U.S. 11th RISE Symposium (Research Insights in Semiarid Ecosystems). USDA Agricultural Research Service and University of Arizona. Tucson, AZ, October 2014.Brice, R., C. Woodhouse, and M. Crimmins. 2014. Understanding sub-annual tree-ring climate records and the impacts of climate extremes in the Four Corners region, USA. Association of Pacific Coast Geographers Meeting. University of Arizona School of Geography and Development. Tucson, AZ, September 2014.Woodhouse, C., R. Brice, M. Crimmins, D. Griffin, H. Faulstich, and D. Ferguson. 2014. Three-Season Hydroclimatic Variability from Tree Rings in the Four Corners Region, USA. Association of American Geographers Annual Meeting. Tampa, FL, April 2014.Crimmins, M. 2014. Rain Days to Dry Spells: Exploring New Ways to Track Drought Across the Southwest U.S. UA Science Cafe - Downtown Science Series. University of Arizona College of Science. Tucson, AZ, December 2014.

and information. It emphasizes stories that relate to the Southwest, as well as climate related news, that illustrate the impact of climate on national or global scales. This podcast is also released as a video Mini-Podcast on the CLIMAS YouTube Channel. http://www.climas.arizona.edu/podcast/southwest-climate-update-may-1-2015.

Speaking of Climate… is a pilot podcast series that includes conversations with researchers and stakeholders about climate related issues. This podcast expands our focus broader than just the Southwest and takes advantage of the numerous people who work on climate science, communication, outreach, education, and engagement on a daily basis. Distributed on the CLIMAS list-serv, CLIMAS blog, Twitter, FaceBook, and YouTube. http://www.climas.arizona.edu/podcasts/speaking-climateconversations-about-climate-science-society

2) Video SeriesCLIMAS YouTube Channel distributes mini video podcasts that mostly derive from the SW Climate Podcast. Images, maps, and video supplements illustrate the concepts discussed in the podcast. It is part of an integrated social media outreach strategy to cross-publish podcast content. Numerous people have expressed interest in these videos, with numerous interactions across social media. https://www.youtube.com/user/uaclimas

3) PresentationMcMahan, B. 2014. CLIMAS Outreach and General Framework and Applications. RISA Conference Call. Detailed aspects of the CLIMAS outreach framework and discussed opportunities and challenges of this work.

Blog sitehttp://www.climas.arizona.edu/blog

Presentation: McMahan, B. 2015. Health, Vulnerability, and the Cascading Effects of Climate Extremes: Collaborative Research in the Southwest. RISA Annual Meeting. Charleston, SC, January 2015. This was an opportunity to engage with others working on climate and health research, to discuss possible approaches to conducting research on social vulnerabilities, economic and environmental effects that amplify the impacts of climate on health.

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Presentation:McMahan, B. 2015. Building a Regional Climate Database: Applications for research, collaboration, and public engagement. American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting. Phoenix, AZ, January 2015. Part of invited session on citizen science.

PresentationWilder, M. 2015. Desalination and Water Security at the U.S. Mexico Border. Annual Meeting of the Association of American Geographers. Chicago, IL, April 2015. Around the globe, desalination initiatives are underway with little attention to institutional, social, and other non-technical aspects of these infrastructure projects. Water managers, NGOs, and other stakeholders in the Arizona-Sonora border region need to be aware of the potential benefits and challenges of supplying major Southwestern cities with desalted water produced in Mexico in order to plan more effectively.

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WorkshopMetrics and Measurement of Adaptation: Advances in Water Research in the Arid Americas. This meeting brought together a group of 27 researchers and water resources policymakers working to understand adaptation in water-short regions of the Americas and other arid-semiarid areas of the world—including Chile, Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, and the southwestern U.S. The goals of the meeting were: 1) to share research experiences from distinct contexts; 2) to begin to synthesize common or related findings from across the region; 3) to develop a special issue on the metrics of adaptation for submission to a high-impact journal (e.g., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, COSUST); and 4) to discuss potential future collaboration on metrics and measuring adaptation.

PresentationWoodhouse, C. 2015. Connecting Environmental Science and Decision Making – Graduate Certificate Program. RISA Annual Meeting. Charleston, SC, January 2015.

1) WebsiteThe Drivers of Drought in the Upper Colorado River Basin website describes the project and outcomes to date, and provides data and tools with project partners and stakeholders. U.S. Geological Survey and the Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center helped produce the website. http://www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/ColoradoRiverWater

2) PresentationsWoodhouse, C., G. Pederson, K. Morino, and G. McCabe. 2015. Investigating the role of temperature in mediating relationships between cool season precipitation and water year streamflow in the Upper Colorado River basin. Pacific Climate (PACLIM) Meeting. Pacific Grove, CA, March 2015.

Woodhouse, C., S. McAfee, G. McCabe, P. Miller, and G. Pederson. 2014. Evaluating the Influence of Precipitation, Temperature, and Soil Moisture on Upper Colorado River Basin Streamflow and Drought. American Geophysical Union. San Francisco, CA, December 2014.

Woodhouse, C. 2014. Collaborative Research on Upper Colorado River Basin Streamflow and Drought. Association of Pacific Coast Geographers Annual Meeting. Tucson, AZ. September 2014.

Woodhouse, C. 2014. Collaborative Research on Upper Colorado River Basin Streamflow and Drought. Bureau of Reclamation, Colorado River Hydrology Work Group Meeting. December 2014. This presentation was part of an ongoing collaborative effort with Reclamation to better understand hydroclimatic variability to manage water resources and anticipate the impacts of climate change.

Publications:Colorado River Research Group. 2014. Charting A New Course For The Colorado River: A Summary Of Guiding Principles. Summary Report. http://www.coloradoriverresearchgroup.org/uploads/4/2/3/6/42362959/crrg_summary_report_1_updated.pdf

Colorado River Research Group. 2014. The First Step In Repairing The Colorado River’s Broken Water Budget. Technical and Summary Reports. http://www.coloradoriverresearchgroup.org/uploads/4/2/3/6/42362959/crrg_guiding_principles.pdf

Colorado River Research Group. 2015. The Case for Conservation. Policy Report. http://www.coloradoriverresearchgroup.org/uploads/4/2/3/6/42362959/crrg_conservation_paper_051215.pdf

1) PresentationOwen, G. 2015. Improving the Science of Science Policy through Climate Services Evaluation. American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting. Phoenix, AZ, January 2015.

2) PublicationFerguson, D., M. Finucane, V. Keener, and G. Owen. In Press. Evaluation to Advance Science Policy: Lessons from Pacific RISA and CLIMAS. Climate in Context. New Jersey: Wiley.

PublicationGuiterman, C. 2015. Climatic Sensitivities of Navajo Forestlands: Use-inspired research to guide tribal forest management. Climate & Society Fellowship Final Report. Tucson, AZ: CLIMAS, Univ. of Arizona. http://www.climas.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/pdfclimas-fellow-finalreport2014guiterman.pdf

1) PublicationTruebe, S. 2015. Cultivating a Climate of Cave Conservation Awareness: A synthesis of current speleothem sampling methods and best practice recommendations. Climate & Society Fellowship Final Report. Tucson, AZ: CLIMAS, Univ. of Arizona. http://www.climas.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/CLIMAS-Fellow-FinalReport2014_Truebe.pdf

2) Decision SupportSpeleothem Sampling Recommendation Framework. This framework has most of the steps mentioned by respondents to both surveys, and might prove a useful reference tool for scientists new to working with stakeholders, and for cave managers and other cave stakeholders to recognize they can have a voice in the sampling process as well.

Video: Soil, Not Dirt: A digital journey connecting soils, plants, and climate. 400+ views on YouTube.https://youtu.be/3JarDy53PLQ

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1) Curriculum for LAW 698O: Integrating Science and the Law in PracticeTaught by L. Huang at the Univ. of Arizona College of Law in Spring 2015. The curriculum focused on teaching basic scientific literacy skills, namely understanding the process of scientific inquiry and gaining basic data interpretation skills. The course taught students practice scientific skills, orienting them in the complex scientific landscape in which law occurs.

2) Publication: Huang, L. 2015. Achieving Scientific Literacy in the Classroom: A climate science and law curriculum. Climate & Society Fellowship Final Report. Tucson, AZ: CLIMAS, Univ. of Arizona.http://www.climas.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/CLIMAS-Fellow-FinalReport2014_Huang.pdf

Presentations on weather and climate for K-12 teachers and studentsSpecific schools/groups visited: CC Meneley Elementary Gardnerville, NV (2nd grade)Bishop Pauite Tribe summer camp, Bishop CA (6-12 grade)Veterans' Memorial STEM Night Reno, NV (K-6)Veterans Memorial Reno, NV (6th grade)Galena Creek Visitors Center Reno, NV(4-6 grade)Richmond Elementary, Susanville CA (2nd grade) Van Gorder Elementary, Sparks NV (6th grade) DRI Greenpower teacher training, Reno NV (K-12 teachers)

A beta version of the CA Climate Outcome Likelihood tool is available online at: http://wrcc.dri.edu/col/ We are currently soliciting feedback on the tool and will make updates to accommodate the feedback received. This tool was presented at the Climate Prediction Adaptation Workshop (CPAS-W) in March 2015 and the US Drought Monitor meeting in April 2015. The tool has been sent to various target users for testing and feedback.

We conducted 10 well-attended forums in various parts of the Tahoe-Reno-Carson City region to discuss and evaluate flood-impact vulnerabilities and actions that might be undertaken to reduce them.--Communications

These fora resulted in half a dozen major newspaper articles in the area--Outreach

Each forum began with about 45 min of presentations by the project team, followed by about 2.25-3.5 hours of discussion and listening session--Presentation

A special University of Nevada Cooperative Extension report (special pub 14-16) summarized the findings from the fora and listening sessions, and a shorter version of the findings is in review at the journal Natural Hazards--Publications

GIS coverages from data mining and weather/hydrologic modeling that formed the context for many of the discussions are available upon request, and we have be looking for a long-term "home" for them with one of the agencies in the area (e.g., the Nevada Division of Emergency Management)--Data

Dettinger is editting the overall State of Bay-Delta Science 2015 report from the Delta Science Program, and Dettinger and Cayan are co-authoring (with 4 others) the Climate and the Delta chapter thereof. The SBDS is an integral (official) step in the DSC's Delta Science Action Plan.

Two workshops located in the Great Basin.

Two papers for peer-reviewed publication are in preparation. A PhD graduate student presented at the 11th AMS Symposium on Forest and Fire Meteorology in May 2015. Further outreach/presentations are planned for the fall 2015 at the NIFC Center in Boise, ID.

An article titled "Interannual variations in daily wintertime temperature distributions over the Southwest United States with a focus on extreme events" is in preparation.

We will summarize research results in an executive summary and send to resource managers.

Data, including parameters from Skew-Normal PDFs fitted to daily Tmax and Tmin will go into an online tool being developed at DRI.

Outreach and communication with stakeholders across all sectors to provide relevant climate information for decision support.

conference presentation (IAWF 2015 conference)White paper: summary of results and recommendationspublication: peer reviewed journal

Technical report that covers Workshop I and II and associated webinarspeer-reviewed paperPresentation

SAWTI is a decision support tool available to the general public that provides a 6-day forecast for Santa Ana Wind-related large fire growth potential

Presentation with USFS partner, Tom Rolinski (USFS) at the Digital Governance Conference in May 2015

Technical report of social science findings was released in Sept. 2014divisions (CDs) as well as statewide. Our study identified December within a water year as being the leading indicator most frequently associated with annual drought statewide (56%) and in most of the CDs (highest was CD2, 65%). Associated with its leading indicator status, December drought was most frequently associated with drought in other winter months (joint probability >30%). Results from this study can help stakeholders to understand and assess the likelihood of annual drought events given monthly precipitation preceding or early in the water year.

We have partnered with the California Rural Water Association and California Department of Water Resources to provide a series of drought preparedness workshops and resources to small water systems and tribes, who are often reliant on vulnerable groundwater resources.

We conducted studies of the use and value of early warning information for drought preparedness, and the importance of NIDIS for providing a needed federal role.

Decision-Making Resources and Publications:Newsletters: Highlights of our NIDIS and California-Nevada Applications Program (CNAP) research, applications, and outreach activities:http://cnap.ucsd.edu/pdffiles/CNAP_CAdrought_aug2014.pdfhttp://cpo.noaa.gov/sites/cpo/Publications/RISA/CNAP%20Observations%20%231.pdf

Dan Cayan contributed to the Public Policy Institute of California publication on Climate Change and Water in California. http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/report/R_415CCWR.pdf

Steinemann, A. "Drought Information for Improving Preparedness in the Western States," Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 95(6): 843–847, 2014. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00067.1

Improving Drought Prediction, http://www.westernstateswater.org/improving-drought-prediction-at-seasonal-to-inter-annual-timescales-workshop-presentations/

Drought Impacts Reporting, http://www.westernstateswater.org/workshop-on-measuring-quantifying-and-reporting-drought-impacts-presentations/

Lecture and training on climate information for wildland fire management

Description of the Southwest monsoon as it relates directly to fire activity and resource management in the Southwest and Great Basin; includes atmospheric map typing for prediction.

Dependence of Intense Precipitation on Spatiotemporal Scale in Observations, Reanalyses, and GCMs. Climate Dynamics, in press.

They make up two final chapters of the PhD dissertation of Nicholas Cavanaugh, who successfully defended at SIO in September 2014.

The first article explores the probability structure of observed daily precipitation extremes. The second quantifies the effect of space-time averaging on that probability structure as well as compares observations with reanalyses and GCMs. Bottom line:

- Probablity density functions with exponential tails (traditional approach) are inadequate to describe probabilities of extremes and heavy (power-law) tails are required to realistically estimate extreme precipitation probabilities in most regions. Exceptions are regions where precipitation is produced primarily by one type of storm system, e.g. California with its frontal precip and Mexican plateau with its convective rainfall.

- As we expect, averaging in space and time makes probability tails less heavy - more exponential, except in coastal California where extreme precipitation appears more extreme when accumulated over a few days. This is due to atmospheric rivers (ARs).

- Reanalyses and GCMs seem to be doing a more-or-less decent job with precipitation extremes - a pleasant surprise; but, of course, there is much variance in extreme precipitation ability between models.

The gridded precipitation data produced at various space-time resolutions from daily station data has been produced and can be made available for many regions of the globe.

Recommendation of methodology for standardizing operational forecasts of mixing height

The project will likely produce two journal articles including one about the future characteristics of dorught busting atmospheric rivers in the Russian River region. The second article will summaraize the approach for developing and the impacts of a mega-drought scenario in the region. There has been considerable communication and outreach about the project. This has lead to an understanding about the impacts of drought in the region. Once the first two objectives are complete we will prepare a drought readiness report and make suggestions of how the region can better preapre for drought. This will be presented at several different stakeholder meetings though out the Russian River.

As the new LOCA downscaled data will be come part of Cal-Adapt this is a decision support tool that the public in both Californa and Nevada access. There have already been a couple different webinars on the LOCA downscaled data to explain to user how the processing of the data. Additional the process has been published. See reference below.

Pierce, D.W., Cayan, D.R., and Thrasher, B.L., 2014: Statistical Downscaling Using Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA). J. Hydrometeor, 15, 2558–2585, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0082.1.

Kelly Redmond, Mike Dettinger and Dan Cayan have advised DWR on scientific aspects of climate change. A report of these findings will be available late summer and early fall. Work by Dan Cayan, Mary Tyree, and Dave Pierce have analyzed over 31 climate models and determined the 10 best for water resources in California. This will be published in chapter 2 of the report. Mike Dettinger contributed to chapter 4 which will address different approaches to downscaling climate data.

The Santa Barbara CEVA results will include downscaled temperature and precipitation from global climate model projections and hourly sea level rise projections for the Santa Barbara region. Along with partners, we are carrying out an ongoing dialogue with community planners and other officials. Presentations at various community and scientific meetings are being made. A report is being produced to summarize results.

The Coastal Flooding Guidance project has developed a series of discussions with coastal managers and other stakeholders in a series of three focus group meetings to help frame and tune the information that will be provided. Three key products include an appendix on sea level rise guidance in the DWR Quick Guide for Community flood preparation with application to FEMA and the National Flood Insurance Program, a technical manual, and a comprehensive report. Results will be presented at coastal professional meetings, along with web page links.

Primary deliverable is the identification of physical, chemical, biological indicators that can be effectively measured and interpreted in the context of indexing change for the Bay of the Farallones.

The indicators were co-developed in discussion w scientists and managers.

A report has been produced and will be submitted to journal for publication.

GIS map databases of fire risks simulated for climate scenarios and stakeholder provided fuels management scenarios. Report/white paper summarizing results of research. Presentations and Q&A sessions with forest management and conservation planners via webinar and in person, and presentations to professional society meetings attended by agency personnel. Peer reviewed journal paper.

We contributed data to accompany and enrich impact assessment products produced in previous years. These were repackaged by the California Department of Public Health into individual county level reports sent to each county in California to support their planning process for county level climate adaptation plans.

This project seeks to engage federally-recognized Indigenous Tribes within the Great Lakes region toexplore whether a collaborative relationship with the Graham Sustainability Institute would be a welcomeand accepted approach in efforts to obtain a better understanding of the potential impact of climaterelatedvariability on Great Lakes water levels and on the vulnerabilities of Tribal communities, fisheriesand thus on Tribal governance. Given the complexity of these interwoven elements, a first step in thisprocess will be to engage several federally-recognized Tribes in the Great Lakes in a way that respectstheir political sovereignty, governance needs and challenges, their long history of experience in the GreatLakes, and the use of their own scientific discovery and tools for bolstering Tribal governance. Byengaging in this process, we hope to find points of collaboration where the scientific discovery and toolsof the Graham Sustainability Institute can be combined with those of the Tribes in: (a) assessing theimpact of changing water levels on this population and (b) the exploration of acceptable mitigationpractices which effectively address such vulnerabilities while also respecting Tribal culture andgovernance.

The primary deliverable of this project will be a suite of climate data targeted at serving the needs of the climate adaptation community in the Great Lakes region. The suite of climate data will consist of an integrated combination of point-observations and gridded data products from a variety of sources, including but not limited to the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences + Assessments (GLISA), Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL), Great Lakes Observing System (GLOS), the Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN), and the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). These data will be standardized to consistent (monthly) timestep, period of analysis, and data structure for efficient and meaningful implementation among the climate adaptation community. The secondary deliverable will be the user guide to replicating the standardization process.

The climate suite will initially be available on a simple HTML-style page, similar to the GLERL Great Lakes Water Levels and Hydrologic Dashboard data download page, which then will link to an FTP-style directory for each dataset/variable. This will allow for easy access to data for users and simpler integration into existing tools and platforms. Data will be made available for download in ASCII, netCDF, GIS shapefiles, or similar formats.

Gridded/spatial datasets that will be made available via the data suite will consist of a mix of atmospheric reanalysis, spatially binned or gridded historical observations, derived variables, gridded observations of lake-related variables, and over-lake satellite data.

1) develop greater awareness and recognition of the importance and nature of climate change risks, vulnerabilities and need for adaptation among municipal staff and decision makers; 2) create greater capacity to conduct risk and vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning across municipal management and service areas; and 3) produce detailed information on one of the highest priority risks within York Region as an example, or template, for adaptation planning in York Region. 4) The project will provide identification of municipal management and service area risks in York Region (climate hazards, impacts, and systems/components), a risk database populated with basic information on the management, service area risks, and trends on these risks, a refined protocol for York Region climate change risk analysis (suitable across Great Lakes), climate trends for variables to represent key hazards in York Region, and detailed characterization of the risks in municipal stormwater management.

This project will deliver a series of workshops which replicate the impacts of both a chronic and acute climate related event - flooding and heat. Based on the simulated events participants from each district of Saint Paul will be asked to address existing resources and needed resources to cope with these types of events. A competitive grant competition will distribute funds for pilot projects to reduce climate vulnerability in at risk communities and climate preparedness kits will be distributed during training events. reservoir and held until needed to subirrigate the crops during dry parts of the growing season. Despite the considerable crop yield and water quality benefits of this systems, the costs were also substantial (Richard et al., 1999) and the system has not been widely adopted to date. We believe the idea of increasing water storage on farm should be revisited through the lens of a climate change adaptation strategy, and starting this process is the goal of our proposed project.

Anticipated Outcomes1. Better understanding of opportunities and barriers to implementation of on-farm water recycling, through input from our key stakeholders. This understanding will inform our analysis as well as the outreach materials we produce and present.

2. Estimates of the potential benefits that could be achieved by on-farm water recycling systems under historical and expected future climate conditions. Benefits to be assessed will include (1) crop yield increases and (2) downstream water quality benefits due to reductions in drainage water discharged to streams.

3. Identification of the design and operational strategies that would be most beneficial to achieve yield benefits (e.g., meet supplemental irrigation needs of crops in 8 out of 10 years), and/or environmental benefits (e.g., zero discharge in 8 out of 10 years.) These comparisons and trade-offs will be summarized in the white paper.

4. Better informed key stakeholder groups, through effective outreach at drainage workshops and meetings, Extension fact sheets describing these systems and our findings, informationon our websites, and the white paper summarizing findings and lessons learned.

• A regional network of individuals and organizations that continues to build a climate resilient sector of rural and tribal communities in the Great Lakes.• Incorporation of an ecosystem services approach into MCD’s regional planning and in Red Lake’s tribal-wide stakeholder engagement strategy.• A regional (MCD) and a tribal-wide (Red Lake) stakeholder group supporting adaptation efforts.• Prioritized management strategies and decision-making processes that minimize climate impacts.• Compilation of a checklist of indicators to inform monitoring efforts of adaptation (Red Lake).• Updated planning documents that incorporate climate data (MCD and Red Lake).• Publication of reports that summarize each community’s stakeholder engagement workshop.• Production of a GLISA white paper and at least two forms of media outreach.

There are four expected outcomes from the project. First, the project team will work withURS, an engineering consulting firm with coastal hazard mitigation expertise, and an advisorycommittee comprised of municipal representatives to draft a sensitive sites and infrastructureprotocol (SSIP). The SSIP will guide municipalities in identifying and protecting their sensitivesites and infrastructure in extreme weather. Secondly, the project team will work with onerepresentative city to pilot the SSIP. By using the SSIP to identify their sensitive sites andinfrastructure (SSI) we will be able to truth test the SSIP and refine it as necessary. Thirdly,recommendations will be made to the pilot city decision makers on short and long term actionsto address their SSI in climate change preparedness planning. Finally, we will educate andinform our more than 110 member cities on the SSIP and SSI analysis through a trainingworkshop, a webinar, a case study and additional outreach. These outcomes address a specificelement of climate preparedness planning that is lacking attention - a focus on sensitive sites andinfrastructure. Furthermore, they help cities take short term actions to protect and secure theirSSI now rather than engaging in long term planning. Finally, these outcomes supportmunicipalities of all sizes, regardless of staff and resource capacity, expertise, and the currentstate of the community’s climate change and storm preparedness.

The outcomes and outputs from the process will be:• New York region specific down-scaled precipitation projections for the scenarios of wetter and drier summers, and wetter winters along with potential impacts based on historical data and precipitation projections.• A synthesis of what other Great Lakes LaMPs and local Lake Ontario watershed plans have done to incorporate climate change or encourage resilience.• Updated scenarios that reflect the main ecological and social elements of the existing LaMP and relevant watershed plans.• Two-day workshop for diverse stakeholders to wrestle with their response to uncertain future scenarios and create recommendations for updating the LaMP and local watershed plans which could enhance the resilience of the Lake, its resources and its people.• Other workshops validating the information gathered at the two-day workshop.• A paper and presentation for NYSDEC and other national, regional and local decision makers documenting the scenario process, workshop activities, and the resultant recommendations for updating the LaMP or watershed plans; and the GLISA required white paper.

Multiple climate scenarios and outcomes based on critical ecosystem, infrastructures and resources at the park.

*Communication & Outreach- Partnerships for data monitoring were formed with students and professors at the American Samoa Community College*Presentation- Talks given about the hydrological modeling and data gathering.*Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report)- one or more peer reviewed publications will result from this research.

*Communication & Outreach- Partnerships for data monitoring were formed with students and professors at the American Samoa Community College*Presentation- Talks given about the hydrological modeling and data gathering.*Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report)- one or more peer reviewed publications will result from this research.

*Decision Support Tool(s)- Scenarios of future climate and freshwater resource adaptation options for Guam will be produced as a result of this research.

*Communication & Outreach- A 2 page Guam climate trends and projections resource was created for stakeholders in Guam in early 2015.Keener, VW, Gingerich, SB, Finucane, ML. April, 2015. Climate Trends and Projections for Guam. East West Center information sheet, Honolulu, HI. Available at:http://www.pacificrisa.org/resources/publications/.

*Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report)- USGS reports and multiple peer-reviewed journal articles will be produced from this research.

*Decision Support Tool(s)- PIRCA Executive Summary and Case Studies Booklets available in hard copy and online for public use.

*Communication & Outreach- PIRCA products are available to the public upon request, and PIRCA editors and authors regularly provide interviews in print in and television forums, and sectorally relevant talks for different groups upon request.

*Presentation- Tens of public and targeted talks have been provided to diverse sectors in the region since the release of the PIRCA report in December, 2012.

*Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report)- Climate Change and Pacific Islands: Indicators and Impacts (Full Report) Keener, V.W., Marra, J.J., Finucane M.L., Spooner, D., & Smith, M.H. (Eds.). (2012). Climate Change and Pacific Islands: Indicators and Impacts. Report for the 2012 Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA). Washington, D.C.: Island Press

*Decision Support Tool(s)- With the USGS PIWSC, Water budget outputs under current and projected climate in current and 4 future land use scenarios will be summarized and translated for decision makers in different sectors. Spatially distributed variables such as future precipitation, recharge, runoff, and evapotranspiration will be made available to decision makers.

*Presentation- The Maui Future Scenario building process has been presented in the last year at a meeting of the Maui Conservation Alliance (Dec, 2014), the annual American Geographers Association (AAG) meeting (April, 2015), and by invitation at the CEREO Seminar Series at the University of Washington, Pullman.

*Data Tools, Maps and Information- A peer-reviewed journal article has been drafted about the participatory climate scenario development process and GIS methodology. All GIS scenario maps will be made public.

*Decision Support Tool(s)- Water budget outputs under current and projected climate in current and 4 future land use scenarios will be summarized and translated for decision makers in different sectors. Spatially distributed variables such as future precipitation, recharge, runoff, and evapotranspiration will be made available to decision makers.

*Presentation- Initial results from the water budget model were presented last year: “Estimating climate-change impacts on groundwater recharge for the island of Maui, Hawaii” a. USGS Water Mission Area Studies Chief’s Meeting, February 10-12b. USGS Pacific Region Face-to-Face Directors Meeting, March 26c. USGS Groundwater Technical Review Team, May 6

*Data Tools, Maps and Information- A USGS report and peer reviewed journal article are in preparation for the next project year. The report will encompass a technical and decision-maker relevant analysis of the data, as well as provide the GIS land use scenario files for public use.

*Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report)- Ferguson D.B., Finucane, M.L., Keener, V.W., Owen, G. (in press, 2015). Evaluation to Advance Science Policy: Lessons from Pacific RISA and CLIMAS. In Garfin, G. & Parris, A. Climate in Context. West Sussex, England: Wiley.

*Presentation- The Pacific RISA evaluation program has been presented in several forums, including the national RISA annual meeting, and in invited talks.

*White Paper- Two of the four external evaluation reports have been made public and distributed, including the PIRCA assessment (Moser, S. (2012). PIRCA Evaluation: Development, Delivery, and Traceable Impacts – With Particular Emphasis on the Contributions of the Pacific RISA, Prepared by Susanne C. Moser, Ph.D., Susanne Moser Research & Consulting, Santa Cruz, CA 9506), and the impact assessment (Moser, S. Supporting Hawai'i's Adaptation Efforts: The Role of the Pacific RISA, February 3, 2015. Prepared by Susanne C. Moser, Ph.D., Susanne Moser Research & Consulting, Santa Cruz, CA 9506).

*Decision Support Tool(s)- State working group will synthesize DoH recommendations for the state based on research and meetings.

*Presentation- Will provide public presentations about potential climate impacts on human health in Hawaii; will integrate with future NCA products.

*Decision support tools- Provide information and support to ongoing USGS/Pacific RISA collaboration looking at climate change effects on the environment especially on Maui Island, Hawaii and Tutuila, American Samoa.

*Publication- In addition to the previous peer reviewed publications, a scientific manuscript is being prepared detailing the analysis of more than 49 global climate models and how well they perform in the tropical Pacific region, with an emphasis on Hawai'i, Guam and American Sāmoa.

*Data tools, (maps/information)- All downscaled climate projection raw data are available from http://apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu/

*Presentation - presented at the December 2014 PICCC/PICSC Pacific Islands Climate Science Symposium in Honolulu, Hawaii.

*Publication - white paper for the DOI LCC network

*Publication(s) (book and/or peer-reviewed publication and/or technical report)- peer reviewed journal publications will result from this research.

*Data Tools, Maps and Information- Maps of past, current, and future projected tropical cyclone paths and genesis regions will be updated and distributed to stakeholders.

*Decision Support Tool(s)- Toolkit of 12 Freshwater and Climate Policy Adaptive tools

*White Paper-Wallsgrove, R. and Penn, D. 2012. Water Resources and Climate Change Adaptation in Hawai‘i: Adaptive Tools in the Current Law and Policy Framework, (Center for Island Climate Adaptation and Policy, Honolulu, Hawai‘i), available athttp://icap.seagrant.soest.hawaii.edu/icap-publications

*White Paper; Wallsgrove, R. and Grecni, Z, 2015 Water Resources and Climate Change Adaptation in American Samoa: Summary of Scoping Research and Stakeholder Input, (Pacific RISA-internal report)

*Decision Support Tool(s)- Web based drought dashboards for American Samoa and RMI*Presentation- Slides detailing use of indicators for stakeholders*Data Tools, Maps and Information- The “dashboard” will have a collection of climate variable data from different pre-existing sources, relevant maps, and gauges indicating relative levels of temporal risk for a given resource

MS Thesis documenting how perceptions of severe drought affect water resource planning in small towns in West Texas.

Research on how water utilities have adapted to drought and other stressors as part of an MS Thesis. Project will produce a Thesis, journal publications and a project summary report written for non-technical stakeholders.

It was submitted as a peer-reviewed journal article to Reviews of Geophysics, and has now been published. See link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014RG000477/full

SCIPP researchers created a storm surge database for U.S. Gulf Coast, as well as a web tool that provides storm surge history for locations along the Gulf Coast. Researchers created a feature in this web tool that provides graphical outputs for these data. For example, the web tool now plots time series and histograms as graphical outputs for surge data. There is still some outstanding work to be completed for this project. We discovered that raw tide gauge data increases the amount of storm surge data by 20-30% for most locations. SCIPP is in the process of adding these data to the storm surge database. This data building process should be completed by July 20, 2015. Researchers will finish writing the paper about this web tool. Needham anticipates submitting this paper for publication around August 20, 2015.

SCIPP researchers completed a draft version of this project in spring, 2014. However, plans are to rerun the analysis and edit the paper after a complete record of high water data is obtained, which will be provided in the location-based storm surge history project. Also, the addition of more storm surge data means that some "modern" statistical methods, like the Point Process method of Extreme Value Analysis, may become appropriate in this project. Researchers will re-run statistics to determine the best method. SCIPP anticipates completing this analysis and submitting this paper for publication around October 15, 2015.

A summary report / needs assessment.

SCIPP has completed a draft of this project in spring, 2014. This project utilizes storm surge return levels along the U.S. Gulf Coast. SCIPP plans to re-analyze this project after completing the new version of storm surge return levels. This project should be completed and a paper submitted for publication around November 30, 2015.

Research conducted as part of Amanda Lewis' MS Thesis. Deliverables include publications and presentations.

Preston Hartman is pursuing his MS-Environmental Sustainability degree at OU. This research and results will be written as part of his thesis for his degree.

Project involved interviews and surveys of regional land management organizations to assess physical impacts of drought and resultant changes in operations. The information was used for a student capstone project and is being further investigated for development of a summary report, publication, and dissemination to research participants and regional stakeholders.

The educational materials that were presented at the workshops are posted on the SCIPP website (as a news story and in the SCIPP Documents section). Also included is a list of online climate tools and a basic vulnerability assessment worksheet.

N/A

Presentation of research findings at the American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting in Phoenix, AZ in January 2015 and project report summary

Presentation of research findings at the American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting in Phoenix, AZ in January 2015 and project report summary

Develop training materials for citizen science observers; Disseminate a survey in the NIDIS pilot region on perceptions of drought impacts; Create drought scale similar to Fujita scale

A quarterly RGB Climate Outlook and a Climate Adaptation Workshop under the auspices of NACSP

1. Prediction of corn aflatoxin risk based on climate data.2. Prediction of corn aflatoxin risk based on a Drought index. 3. Identification of the planting date and planting densities increasing corn aflatoxin risk.4. Development of a climate-based corn aflatoxin risk decision support tool.

1. Evaluate a generic drough index as predictor for corn afatoxin risk tool, identify the windows in the growgin season with highest risks for aflatoxin contamination, identify management practices that can be modified to minimize the risk for aflatoxin contamination

1. Identification of the most appropriate nitrogen rate for corn production in alabama based on Spring and Summer climate forecast. 2. Journal article containing results of the project. 3. Academic thesis containing all the data and results generated from this study.4 Extension publication with major finding from this study.

1. Identification of the relationship between Hessian Fly, major winter wheat insect pest, and ENSO. 2. Development of the weather based prediction model of Hessian Fly infestation. Results were published in Agronomy Journal

1. Identification of the relationship between Wheat yield,wheat varieties represented by maturity groups, and ENSO. Results were published in Agronomy Journal

1. Dissemination of climate information and its application to risk-management strategies to agents, farmers, and other stakeholders

1. AgroClimate.org map-based monitoring and climatology2. WaterFootprint tool – estimating consumptive water use relative to production 3. 4-H Weather toolkit4. Workshops 5. Climate adaptation exchange6. Peer-reviewed publications 7. Extension publications

1. A truly wireless, minimum energy, soil moisture sensing system, 2. Associated on-line irrigation scheduling decision support tool.

1. Journal article containing results of the project. 2. Academic thesis containing all the data and results generated from this study.

1. Numerous presentations to water policy stakeholders including State officials. 2. GriDSSAT tool provides daily maps of high resolution crop information3. WASSI output applied to SE as a hydrologic stress indicator

1. Smartphone apps for irrigation scheduling for citrus, strawberries, cotton and residential turf-grass. 2. Drought resliency strategies for the SmartIrrigation Apps. 3. Field testing and validation of the SmartIrrigation Apps.

Applied research to identify applicable adaption technologies for development of educational tools

Journal articles, presentations, and academic thesis all will provide important information on how future climate changes might affect rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. Design storms from IDF curves are used to design civil engineering infrastructure. This information is critical for adapting to climate change.

Journal articles, presentations, and academic thesis provide information on how climate variability can be reduce the impact of point source discharge from industrial sources.

The deliverables will provide important information on what future climate changes mean to droughts in Alabama and in the ACF River Basin

The deliverables will provide important information on how future climate changes will affect erosion. This will help U.S. EPA and USDA NRCS to develop and implement new management measures to reduce erosion and adapt to climate change.

1. New seasonal forecasting tools for crop management; 2. Quantification of climate change impact uncertainty

Hydro-Economic model for managing south Florida Water resources for climate and land use change

Examine hurricane and storm surge potential changes within the RCP4.5 climate of CMIP5 simulations

Conduct formative evaluation of this $20 million Coordinated Agriculture Project (CAP) by examining the social processes associated with collaboration and integration among 51 co-PIs from multiple institutions participating in PINEMAP. Research aims to enhance the outcomes of large-scale collaborative research and training programs by building our capacity to understand, evaluate and manage circumstances that influence the effectiveness of integrated team science.

Examine the low frequency variations of the tropical cyclones in the western Atlantic/Caribbean region

We are conducting downscaled climate projections for Puerto Rico at an unprecedented resolution of 2km with multiple global climate models and providing the data for ecologists working in the region.

1. Downscaled evaluation of the National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME). 2. Comparative study across three organizations of the benefits and limitations of using seasonal climate forecasts for their operational needs.

LONG TERM CLIMATE SCENARIOS TECHNICAL GROUP 1) Evaluate the ability of Global Climate Model (GCM) retrospective simulations to reproduce observed climatologic behavior at public water supply relevant space-time scales in Florida 2) Evaluate the ability of appropriately downscaled GCM simulated climate to reproduce observed hydrologic behavior when used to drive hydrologic models 3) Evaluate changes in hydrologic behavior that result from driving IHMs with appropriately downscaled GCM future projection SEASONAL SCALE FORECASTS TECHNICAL GROUP ---- diagnose seasonal predictability and forecast skill for all 4 seasons (winter, spring, summer, and fall) of stream flow in seven watersheds in Florida and 23 other watersheds spread around the southeast US.

Develop a collaborative Working Group comprised of public water suppliers, water resource managers, climate scientists, and hydrologic scientists focused on understanding how climate variability/change and sea level rise may impact planning and operations of Florida’s public water supply utilities. · Identify the appropriate spatio-temporal scales, climatic indices, and events that drive utilities’ decisions, and evaluate the practical applicability of current climate tools at these scales through synthesis of historical data, nationally available General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations, and regionally downscaled data products. · Identify appropriate entry points for climate data and model predictions in Working Group members’ models and decision making processes and, for at least two applications, evaluate the usefulness of these data for minimizing current and future risks associated with climate variability/climate change and sea level rise.

A total number of 122 participants from 15 states attended the SRECA training. The SRECA workshop was a combination of lectures, interactive breakout sessions, and discussions. Plenary presentations focused on the latest climate science, tool and decision support resources, as well as communication strategies for stakeholder engagement. Breakout sessions for in-depth discussions around climate issues related to coastal resources, forestry, livestock and crops. These breakout sessions were an opportunity for agents and specialists in each sector to learn about and discuss sector-specific aspects of managing for a changing climate. Finally, shared meals and breaks were an opportunity for informal networking and community building.

Simulation of yields of important Southeastern crops under downscaled climate projections through 2075.

First workshop with partitipants completed February 2015; additional workshop scheduled for 2016. Workshop report completed in April 2015. Peer-reviewed paper expected.

Preliminary database of extremes completed; web resource to be created.

Presentation and panel discussion at Utah climate variability and health symposium June 2015; Presentation at University Council on Water Resources Conference June!2015; Educational presentations for Jordan Valley Water Conservancy District Board to be conducted July and August 2015; review of climate section of Utah Water Plan; others TBD.

Online course ran April-May 2015 with > 6000 registered students.

Three one-day workshops on snowpack monitoring to be held in 2015.

Drought and climate technical assessment being prepared, to be followed by Wind River Reservation Drought Plan

Climate analysis provided for final climate adaptation plan, which was completed in May 2015

Vulneraibility workshops for the two national forests have been completed. One vulnerability assessment has been drafted; both are expected to be completed in 2015/2016.

Final climate change report released in July 2014; various presentations during 2014 and 2015 as requested.

Final vulnerability study report released in February 2015; presentations on study findings provided as requested.

Deliverables: Peer-reviewed papers (TBD); stakeholder-oriented reports and materials (some already in circulation and some under development), databases (some already completed), workshops (one planned for Sept. 2015), various presentations.

Peer-reviewed paper in press with Journal of Water Resources Management and Planning; multiple stakeholder presentations conducted, information directly transferred to primary stakeholder

Papers: Huisenga and Travis 2015, Travis 2014, Travis and Bryce 2014; NSF proposal "Are extreme events efficient pacemakers of adaptation?"; web resource on decision models expanded

Direct guidance on climate information provided directly to The Nature Conservancy; Brugger et al. in press

Intermountain West Climate Dashboard operational; prototype Rocky Mountains and High Plains dashboard has been created

Stakeholder Need Addressed

seasonally-explicit decision support calendar for viewing and planning human resource capacities and possible climate-risks simultaneously

Assist with fisheries and ocean management to respond to ocean acidification and climate change

Assist with fisheries and ocean management to respond to ocean acidification and climate change

Need to better understand the rapidly evolving landscape of climate science, services and application in Alaska.

white paper outlining best practices, uncertainties and limitations in assessment of the vulnerability of hydropower production to climate variability and change in Alaska

historical information on sea ice conditions in Alaska.

knowledge of what has been done and already expressed as needs in the literature

Report summary will make coastal change research transparent to communities and coastal change researchers

Utilizing these new climate divisions in Alaska allows for the development of new climate products and services, as well as to new avenues of climate research. Immediate examples of the benefits would be establishing divisional-based seasonal forecasts. Divisions would also make climate analysis in Alaska more comparable with that in the Continental United States (CONUS).

need for near real time catalog of events within Alaska.

The project was commissioned by the North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) with participation by the North Slope Borough and Arctic Slope Regional Corporation representing local concerns. The first stage of this project will provide information to stakeholders on current knowledge and uncertainties in relevant social, economic and environmental factors that may affect onshore and offshore resource extraction development.

monthly and seasonal review of conditions and outlook on forecast for upcoming month and season.

Same as above

Same as above

The stakeholders require updated flood maps that account for the added effects of climate change, especially sea level rise, so that adaptation plans can adequately reflect the extent and magnitude of flood risks in the urban coastal communities.

Formal documentation of research provides stakeholders with documentation for future reference.

CSC will be considering the extensibility of the web tool and the lessons learned in the project for national products in the future.

The data and tools will inform stakeholder efforts to reduce pollution loading and improve Jamaica Bay water quality

Spatial and temporal analysis of the data will inform the design of new data collection and monitoring activities.

Federal and state agencies responsible for maintenance of water quality and supply will have an improved understanding of how regional and local water managers in the Connecticut River Basin understand and utilize climate information and forecasts, and thus the agencies will be able to better communicate actionable information to managers making decisions on the front lines.

The project will develop materials to raise awareness and educate the community about GI being constructed in the four targeted sewersheds in the Bronx River watershed. The materials will assist in promoting public scientific literacy and engaging the public in citizen science activities.

The project will develop GI designs, templates, models, decision making tools and policy frameworks that will help cities like NYC to maximize their investments in GI, as well as industry partners in promoting economic competitiveness

Information will be used by the Client to develop GIS data that will be integrated into the GIS planning portal being developed with leadership by The Trust for Public Land and the New York City Department of Parks & Recreation for the purpose of identifying priority properties for green infrastructure (GI).

Given the projected rapid increase in global temperature, it is essential for living marine resource management plans in particular to incorporate management strategies that deal directly with climate. Our anticipated results will inform LIS living marine resource managers on the sensitivity of LIS to natural climate variability and/or anthropogenic climate change and allow them to adjust assessment tools (such as “stress indices”) accordingly. Climate-induced mortality and sub-lethal decline in production are vital considerations in assessment of present and future stock status as these factors undermine the viability of each stock and the fisheries it supports, as well as suppress stock rebuilding using traditional management methods. Incorporating into theassessment process those factors which a) stress a population and b) result in loss of production and additional non-harvest mortality, will enable managers to better determine not only the impacts of climate change, but also whether current harvests are sustainable or adaptable.

Climate products developed for each of the project partners will enable their urban learning networks to learn about climate science and adaptations.

The assessment, model, and data will help New York state and local governments and the conservation community to prioritize habitats for conservation and related activities.

In calls for proposals the NYC Department of Health has requested research to support decision making during health alerts, specifically in regards to cooling centers.This support will include a web-based tool that shows downscaled temperature maps and related health risks, and there will be both a nowcast and a 24-hour future cast.

The information used as the backbone for the decision support tools created will be presented to the stakeholder.

Assessment of the performance and effectiveness of existing heat health warning systems is importance for understanding where the current system can be improved, especially with regard to coomunications of risk to the general public.

Improved warnings to the general public about the potential magnitude and timing of air quality alerts, especially to those at risk from allergic diseases, may help reduce the need for emergency care and result in improved work productivity when there is time and understanding of the need to take preventative health protection measures.

Findings can be of value to future work aimed at d eveloping projections of future temperature-related mortality. Projections of the potential heat mortality impacts may lead to better adaptation planning and communication to the public most at risk.

Improved understanding of factors leading to increased vulnerability to excess temperature will allow the stakeholder to develop more effective means of communicating risks to targeted populations, and to help design mitigation plans that improve health outcomes.


Understanding and developing a model for thermal relief over the downstream river for better fish habitat.

Understand the reliability of their water system and have tools/data for decision making to potentially fund needed infrastructure upgrades.

The online mapping tool will allow users to visualize the effects from a variety of inundation scenarios and to calculate and download summary statistics on economic impacts to property and infrastructure, demographic profiles of those living in flood hazard zones. The system will also serve as a tool for those needing data resources to conduct evaluations on the cost effectiveness of mitigation scenarios.

Communication and outreach to vulnerable individuals and communities will provide information about specific vulnerabilities and catalyze a discussion about what can be done to build resilience. The communication and outreach address the need of city governments to partner with individuals and communities in building resilience in order to effectively use limited public resources and it addresses the need of stakeholders at the community level to begin building resiience to flooding driven by storm surges.

The project will provide flood maps that city decision makers can use in their planning and that individuals and communities can use to understand their particular vulnerabilities. Maps and non-map documentation of social vulnerabilities will help city decision makers and communities to design actions that build resilience. Education modules will serve as models for city decision makers and communities in expanding the resilience-building initiatives to areas and populations not covered by the project.

Analysis of survey data will suggest the most effective way to engage local communities in creating new green infrastructure that contributes to social resilience within coastal communities.

Improved planning for adaptation against flood risk via the development of green infrastructure

Informing better design and planning of GI investments in New York CityWill help stakeholders determine under what conditions green infrastructure can be considered a viable strategy for coping with extreme climate events

The technical report aims to help NYCPR improve their GI sites plants list including species resilient to climate change

This project will help stakeholders to find out if green infrastructure played an effective role as adaptation strategy protecting urban infra-structure from Sandy impacts

This project will delivery a decision making tool that helps stakeholders to find out where GI should be placed based on climatological, biophysical and social factors

This project will help stakeholders to better understand the potential interactions between climate change, green infrastructure and cities

Scenario studies and full hazard assessments with hydrodynamic modeling can help stakeholders develop better coastal/harbor adaptation plans that mitigate risk while also minimizing harmful impacts to local ecosystems.

Coastal protection efforts can harm water quality, so we are providing modeling of both flooding and oxygen, to help in decisionmaking.

The stakeholders are interested in the ability to reregulate the reservoirs in the basin to produce more natural streamflows to help environmental management without significantly decreasing the amount of hydropower generated

NYCDEP wants to test the performance of their system under current and future climates scenarios. Because of the unique characteristics of their system, accurate representation of extreme flows upstream of their reservoirs is necessary to provide accurate experimental results.

Statistics and resampled historic data sets will be created and screened with a simulation model specifically designed to identify climate or inflow series that would cause problems with either quality or quantity. These series can then be analyzed in more depth to advise operating policies.

Probabilistic forecasts of tropical cyclone flood elevations

Resampled historic data sets will be created and screened with a simulation model specifically designed to identify climate or inflow series that would cause problems with either quality or quantity. These series can then be analyzed in more depth to advise operating policies.


Updated climate projections will help stakeholders across the City of New York continue their ongoing climate adaptation activities.

An open Building Footprint dataset will be produced. General adaptation and mitigation strategies appropriate for addressing flood risk will be attached as attributes of impacted buildings and made available through a web mapping tool.

One product of this work is a series of freely available datasets that can be used to address specific management questions. These datasets are compatible with other hydrological and ecological modeling efforts and represent a next-generation climate change framework for land managers.

The result was a spatially and temporally complete, high-resolution (4-kilometer) gridded dataset of surface meteorological variables required in ecological modeling for the contiguous United States from 1979—2012 and continuing.

Validation of the resulting gridded surface meteorological data was conducted against an extensive network of weather stations including RAWS, AgriMet, AgWeatherNet, and USHCN-2.Datasets and more information can be found at the Northwest Knowledge Network.

Need for users to easily access, download, analyze, visualize and apply outputs (data) and information from the Integrated Scenarios Project

Stakeholders will be able to make more informed decisions around resource management. Stakeholder workshops informed computer model design

See description of deliverable

Stakeholders will be able to make more informed decisions around resource management. Stakeholder workshops informed computer model design.

Stakeholders will be able to make more informed decisions around area planning and coastal hazards. Stakeholder workshops informed computer model design.

climate information clearninghouse, monthly newsletter, periodic magazine, social media

Provides impacts and risk information for climate change in the PNW

Provides impacts and risk information for climate change in the PNW

Provides information on land use and cover change resulting from climate change in the PNW.

To incorporate climate into decision making about water supply

Drought monitoring and prediction system to be used for entire PNW instead of just Washington state

Categorization of subbasins with similar winter and summer sensitivities

Will be used for future climate change scenarios to study the climate change impacts on the water table, reach gain and recharge.

yield management, water efficiency

Why are we doing this? 1. Highlight climate risks that warrant adaptive action2. Organize information from various sources and of varying quality3. Improve capacity for communities and agencies to address current and future risks4. Identify and prioritize risks, improve effectiveness5. Identify measures to reduce risks, consequences, and costs6. Generally increase support for adaptation initiatives and actions7. Coordinate initiatives and measures to address climate risks in the region

Management objectives for adaptation: To reduce consequences, costs, and risks toA. InfrastructureB. Health and safetyC. Natural systemsD. Working lands

train extension specialist to talk about climate change and have Increased understanding of regional climate research and incorporation of climate curricula by extension professionals will (1) increase the capacity to disseminate research on projected climate impacts and (2) implement adaptation strategies with extension clientele. Extension professionals from agricultural, rangeland, forestry, and coastal programs will gain (1) improved access to regionally relevant climate science and better understanding of the potential impacts a changing climate may have to their clientele and (2) knowledge about available adaptation strategies and practices. Extension professionals will have an increased capacity to respond to climate related questions and support adoption of adaptation strategies of their clientele.

See description of research deliverable - Project Accomplishments:

Created a network of trained individuals at state and federal agencies who can now go on to provide adaptation training and information to others in their own and other organizations, Created venues for ongoing networking and communicating with those individuals (e.g., webinars, additional training, websites, etc.), Compiled a set of “best practices” for implementing climate adaptation efforts in state and federal agencies in the Northwest.

Experts connecting with stakeholders in forums to discuss climate needs and information and reach out to underserved populations

Identifies and prioritizes potential actions throughout Oregon that would reduce our vulnerability to natural hazards related to climate change

City managers will be able to make decisions regarding planning for climate change impacts and mitigation with their hazard mitigation planning process.

Climate Action Planning Process for climate change mitigation and adaptation

Local public health departments will be prepared for climate change risks and opportunities.

Interviews and observations contributed to an understanding of Northwest tribal culture and its vulnerability and adaptive capacity to a changing climate. This research documented traditional cultural commonalities among the tribes involved with this project and illustrated intertribal cultural adaptations to their prevailing environmental conditions. The results of this study will also provide tribes a resource to assess climate change impacts on their cultural practices and identity

Capability to improve community resilience

Professionals need a place to connect with each other, share information, and build on successes while moving away from approaches that aren’t working. They need a professional society that could help bridge the geographic and sectoral gaps that naturally develop, especially in the diverse, dynamic, and emerging field of climate adaptation. No longer would individuals be isolated working on their own to make a difference. No longer would the sectors be so fragmented in their approaches to building resilience. No longer would communities, regions, or states need to start from scratch to build and prioritize their strategies to increase climate resilience.

Better understanding of tools available for county health depts., vulnerability assessment guidance

CISA projects to advance regional and local capacity to cope with drought center on understanding drought impacts on social and environmental systems currently under-represented in regional drought assessments, specifically coastal ecosystems. This project seeks to identify ways in which drought impacts information can be more effectively incorporated into drought decision making and management processes.

A needs assessment was conducted with coastal natural resource managers in NC and SC as the first component of this project in order to enhance understanding of ecological drought indicators and their utility for managing coastal natural resources. Interviews findings, such as the need for indicator parameters that reflect both freshwater availability and impacts on ecological resources and a single index that could be useful for multiple habitats with broad similarities, will be incorporated into the second component of the project. This component involves collaboration with the USGS to inform the development of the coastal drought index (CDI) and determining linkages between ecological indicators and varying salinity levels expressed by the CDI.

This atlas is an important part of the NIDIS Carolinas DEWS pilot program as decision makers have indicated needs for background information about drought in the Carolinas (i.e., frequency, intensity, duration) in order to help them prepare for and manage future drought events.

During the project period, interviews, VCAPS workshops, and a system dynamics workshop were held with blue crab fishermen in Beaufort County, SC to document and assess the effects of drought on the blue crab industry. One of the most important results of this project so far is the identification of the large knowledge gap in the Beaufort County, SC blue crab fishery as it related to drought and climate-related impacts. Researchers and fishermen agree that more data is crucial to fill these gaps and begin to address potential adaptation options in response to the impacts of climate variability and change.

Beaufort County, SC is a low-lying coastal county with a high sensitivity to tidal flooding and storm surge. Just over half of Beaufort County is open water, sounds, marshes, and estuaries and two thirds of its dry land is located within a flood zone. the 2010 Beaufort County Comprehensive Plan called for the County government to anticipate and plan for the future impacts of sea level rise, given these variety of existing vulnerabilities.

Stakeholders in the city of Beaufort and town of Port Royal have formed a task force to address the area’s vulnerability to sea level rise and develop adaptation strategies. There are thirteen members on this task force, including the mayor of Beaufort and planning administrator of Port Royal. CISA was asked by the SC Small Business Chamber of Commerce for assistance.

This project is developing information that will be useful for public health officials, hospitals and health-care providers, and organizations responsible for communication of information regarding extreme heat warnings and impacts. Work to date has focused on the temporal and spatial patterns in heat morbidity across the state. Temperature thresholds across which heat morbidity rates increase markedly were calculated for different demographic groups (e.g. teenagers vs. elderly) across various rural and urban regions of the state. The highest rates of heat vulnerability are found in rural areas where labor-intensive crops are grown. The biggest differences in heat stress vulnerability are identified between the counties with the highest and lowest median household incomes.

This project addressed three different concerns for public health officials along the coast.. One is that the field sampling provided knowledge of the current incidence of Vibrio in the Winyah Bay estuary. The second is that by coupling our results with projections of salinity in the Waccamaw River under potential future climate and sea level we are able to provide information about the possible increase in exposure to Vibrio in the future. The third component of the project includes DNA sequencing to determine the virulence of the Vibrio samples.

Information about vegetation change (and detection of such change) will be designed for use by Refuge managers to plan current and future management activities for wildlife habitat, carbon sequestration, recreation and education. Researchers will work with Refuge managers to integrate results into the ARNWR Habitat Management Plan, directly impacting current and future decision-making regarding hydrology control, vegetation and wildlife. Findings will also complement the existing climate change research program at ARNWR. To engage local and regional stakeholders, a public outreach event was held at ARNWR headquarters (Roanoke Island, NC) in December 2014. This work aims to prolong the significant stores of sequestered carbon, protect the natural ecosystems of the Refuge, and raise awareness of local communities.

There will be a suite of watershed simulation models that allow investigation of potential impacts of climate change, land use change, and water management decisions on water quantity and quality at several spatial scales in the Winyah Bay watersheds. These basin-wide models have been used to aid in assessing salinity intrusion in the future for public water supply managers along the Waccamaw River and the occurrence and potential range expansion of Vibrio in the Winyah Bay estuary. Most recently, researchers have calibrated the HSPF model for the Waccamaw River watershed for dissolved oxygen (DO) to improve understanding of the drivers of DO dynamics in the watershed. DO is a significant stress in this watershed and has drawn the attention of regulators and stakeholder groups.

This project is intended to identify and examine a range of possible changes in discharge in the Edisto River between now and 2030. This information will be useful for coastal resource managers responsible for monitoring river flow and managing natural communities and ecosystems. Specifically, there is considerable interest in forecasting future river discharge levels in response to climate change and their downstream effects on blue crabs.

In 2014, CISA provided information to the ACE Basin and Winyah Bay National Estuarine Research Reserves in order that they might incorporate potential impacts of climate change into a low impact development manual for coastal South Carolina. A need for improved information about the intensity and return period of extreme rainfall events in the historic record and projections under future climate scenarios arose from this interaction.

The variety of projects included in the CCCOI have been initiated by information requests from a variety of stakeholders in the coastal Carolinas.

The CCoP aims to deliver directed outreach programs on the impacts of climate variability, climate change, and adaptation strategies for coastal stakeholders.

CISA staff and researchers work with stakeholders and decision makers to assess needs and most appropriate tools for sharing information and providing decision support. Specific needs and interactions may vary depending on the type of organization, level of management, sectoral concerns and interests.

This process was designed to support the integration of relatively general climate change information with specific local expertise and help local decision makers assess the challenges and begin to consider adaptation options. The original intended users were local decision makers in communities. We also learned that many Sea Grant extension agents and other involved with adaptation planning processes are interested in this engagement approach so we have conducted trainings and developed VCAPS guidance on how to conduct VCAPS to address this interest.

This project seeks to inform future water supply reliability for Orange Water and Sewer Authority (OWASA), located in Carrboro, NC. The project will facilitate the consideration of climate change in the utility's existing long-term planning approach.

Stakeholders with the NC Drought Management Advisory Council (DMAC), NCDENR Water Resources and forest managers are interested in using high-resolution drought indicators. In particular, the NC Drought Council provides weekly guidance to the US Drought Monitor and would like to be able to ensure accurate depictions of local drought severity. The NC Drought Management Advisory Council now uses the current SPI products routinely in weekly drought discussions. As new drought indices come online, these will also be included in weekly drought guidance from DMAC to US Drought Monitor authors. The Texas State Climate Office also includes this tool, embedded in their site but focused on Texas (http://atmo.tamu.edu/osc/drought/).

The Dynamic Drought Index Tools (DDIT) was developed by CISA researchers as a response by state climatologists, Duke Energy, state drought response committees, and other drought management groups for an interactive tool that allowed drought monitoring with user control of index, time frame, and spatial aggregation unit. It is maintained by the SC DNR.

This project was initiated in February 2014 when the members of the City of Folly Beach, SC, Planning Commission contacted CISA’s coastal climate extension specialist, Fly. Folly Beach is a small barrier island city just outside of Charleston, SC, that experiences chronic beach erosion issues due to the placement of jetties in the Charleston harbor. Folly Beach is typically renourished every 5-7 years. The city wishes to become more knowledgeable on the state of their beach erosion and the various options available for erosion control, as well as address longer-term climate issues in both their Beachfront Management Plan and Comprehensive Plan (LCBMP) updates.

Climate change, air quality regulation, and population dynamics will likely alter future demand for emergency department services. The projections developed in this project can be used to inform local public health preparedness and support continued air pollution mitigation. In 2014 CISA provided additional funding to expand the analysis from Mecklenburg County to all of North Carolina. The project was expanded due to stakeholder interest, particularly the NC Climate Ready program which requested better estimates of climate change health effects in different regions of North Carolina.

See above

The climate dashboard presents historical hydroclimate risk, current climate conditions, and information about future climate. Currently, NWS is writing monthly climate narratives that describe the climate context and refer to these images. The FEMA watch office is using and viewing the dashboard monthly.

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This report summarizes the results of a public opinion survey that was commissioned by the University of Arizona and Stanford University to provide a better understanding of how the Arizona public views climate change. This report improves our understanding of stakeholder attitudes on a key climate and environmental issue.

Stakeholders indicated that they do not have data on climate extremes, impacts, preparedness, and response measures for five hazards: wind, heat, drought, flood, and fire in a coordinated, centralized manner.

People who work for organizations that are similar to RISA can benefit from learning about RISA operations.

In this report chapter, we examined historic and projected records of climate factors for the Southwest, with a focus on the upper Gila River Basin in New Mexico. This work addresses the climate change information needs of stakeholders in the Gila River Basin in New Mexico. Stakeholders include multiple NGOs (e.g., The Nature Conservancy; Gila Conservation Coalition), private sector consultants (e.g., Western Resource Advocates), citizens in the Upper Gila River Basin, state and federal agencies (e.g., NM Interstate Stream Commission; US Bureau of Reclamation; US Fish & Wildlife Service) concerned with New Mexico’s allocation of its Gila River allotment.

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We examined the scenario planning process in Reclamation’s Colorado River Basin Supply and Demand Study, and found that scenario planning partly improved multi-party cooperation and acceptance of climate change as a legitimate resource planning issue. The study met a general stakeholder need for understanding the efficacy of scenario planning for climate change adaptation planning.

See above

See above

Navigating a Pathway Toward Colorado’s Water Future: A review and recommendations on Colorado’s draft Water Plan. This report provides conclusions and recommendations for the Colorado Water Plan, which will help shape and direct Colorado’s water future. This addresses a stakeholder need for guidance on future water policy and planning.

Presentations:Provided information on economic tools and potential responses to climate effects on water supply and demand to audience of water resource professional and stakeholders.

Provided information on climate effects on health to audience of oublic health professionals and stakeholders.

Ten attendees including orchard and vineyard owners discussed the need for different types of frost and freeze forecasting tools. This led to the development of point forecast matrix tool (NWS) that connected observations from the Arizona Meteorological Network stations to try and improve minimum temperature observations near existing agricultural areas.

The tools in DroughtView are currently being used to monitor biweekly changes in land surface greenness conditions as a proxy for drought impacts at very fine spatial scales across the Southwest U.S.

Hopi Drought Status Reports were delivered to the Dept. of Natural Resources to help inform planning and management decisions.

See above

Need for climate communication on relevant, regional topics.

This was an opportunity to engage with others working on climate and health research, to discuss possible approaches to conducting research on social vulnerabilities, economic and environmental effects that amplify the impacts of climate on health.

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Around the globe, desalination initiatives are underway with little attention to institutional, social, and other non-technical aspects of these infrastructure projects. Water managers, NGOs, and other stakeholders in the Arizona-Sonora border region need to be aware of the potential benefits and challenges of supplying major Southwestern cities with desalted water produced in Mexico in order to plan more effectively.

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The adaptation strategies to achieve water security and environmental sustainability that are effective in arid regions are not well known, and there is even less systematic knowledge about the adaptive capacity of water governance networks.

Provides others who may want to start similar programs with information on how CLIMAS began its program.

Website provides data and tools with project partners and stakeholders.

These publications provide non-partisan expertise on Colorado River science, law, and policy.

Used in classrooms so students can learn about soil research.

Communication about how CLIMAS is conducting its program evaluation can help other programs set up their own program evaluation.

The study provides an improved assessment of forest response to climate change that is vital to natural resource planning and management.

A synthesis of current speleothem sampling methods and best practice recommendations.

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Potential lawyers who want to practice environmental policy need a class on climate that is suited to their needs, so they can be more informed about climate policies and laws.

Students and teachers are interested in weather and climate in the region and trends over time. Current events, such as the ongoing drought, were also addressed in these presentations adjusted to the grade level of students.Students and teachers will use the information gained from these presentations to be more informed citizens in interpreting information on weather and climate.

In their planning process, water resource managers are often concerned with how much precipitation may fall over some future period (month, season, water year, etc.). Accurate forecasts are not yet available at a seasonal time scale, but station climatologies can be consulted to address the likelihood of occurrence of precipitation amounts over a variety of timescales. This tool allows stakeholders to view the likelihood of receiving a specified precipitation amount (a quantity or recovery of deficit) over some future period. The tool generates a graphic display of the output as well as tabular information. The tool addresses the stakeholder’s need to answer the question, “How might this (week/month/season/year) turn out in terms of precipitation in the context of historic data?”

The general consensus is that, if the storm/flood of 1997 were to happen again now, the area would fare better (given actions that agencies in the area have taken over the past 20 years) but that it would still be a total disaster. ARkStorm@Tahoe provided a chance for stakeholders to assess where they stand in terms of storm and flood readiness, and to explore even more anticipatory actions.

Baseline science assessment upon which planning, reoperations, and restoration actions can be founded. Also a baseline for planning and support of future science investments.

Improve usability of spot weather forecasts; support the NWS with a framework for verification of spot forecasts.

Increased understanding of extreme temperature variability in the Southwest will help resource managers plan for extreme events. This could potentially provide information for predicatblity of winter exterme temperature events.

The focus of the climate forums is to provide information about current and near-term climate and weather information that may provide decision support for managers across federal, state, local, and tribal agencies and NGO organizations in the Great Basin

Results from this study will address how fire behavior is changing across time and different geographies and the role of climate in extreme fire behavior. It will also help identify common themes and patterns that are associated with firefighter's perceptions of these events. This information will directly support fire agencies in improving safety and training opportunities for wildland fire fighters.

These workshops will help tribal communities begin planning for adaptation and mitigation actions to improve their climate resiliency.

The technical report will provide recommendations and suggestions to the BLM on how to incorporate the rapid ecological assessment data into a scenario planning process as well as identify criteria for identifying possible adaptation strategies that were developed during the project.

SAWTI is a decision support tool available to the general public that provides a 6-day forecast for Santa Ana Wind-related large fire growth potential. This has been used as a decision support tool to pre-postion resources by fire management agencies based on forecasts from SAWTI.

Develop useful and meaningful drought monitoring and prediction products, and effectively characterize and communicate drought information to a range of decision-makers, water users, and the public.

Investigated needs for drought monitoring and forecast information among the 19 Western Governors' Association states, and the economic value of early warning information for reducing drought impacts

Promote better decision-making and planning using the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS). Promote the development and implementation of fire danger operating plans at the local level to be integrated into Geographic Area and National level decision processes. Develop a pool of technical experts and cadre for Fire Danger Rating (FDR) guidance and instruction.

The results of the project will benefit operational fire staff and managers with information to improve prediction of Southwest monsoon in relation to wildland fire, and climatological information on monsoon-fire relationships for assessments and planning.

Ability to model and predict precipitation extremes and the probabilities and return periods of their occurrence is important for various applications from design limits to flood control regulations.

The method for operationally determining mixing height is not currently standardized, yet fire management and air quality utilize mixing height forecasts for decision-making, this is particularly important for controlled burns. This proposed method will provide a national decision-support tool.

The Russian River has a very diverse group of stakeholders including urban areas, agriculture and resource managers, which include protecting endangered salmoid species. The project will attempt to explain to each of these sectors how they can better prepare for drought and produce indicators that let the various stakeholders know the status of water supply and river flow in the region.

The new downscales data captures extremes better than some of the previous approaches to staistically downscaling data. This will address stakeholders needs to better understand extremes in a changing climate.

The final product of the CCTAG is a recommendation document and the approval of this document may allow DWR to act on the climate change analysis recommendations rather quickly.

Santa Barbara County community planners have expressed the need for regionally specific information that will help them adapt to climate changes.

A survey of coastal professionals capacity, gaps, needs regarding climate change indicates that coastal managers lack training, resources, and information that is relevant and usable within their decision making context. Community agency planners need newly available information about sea-level rise, and translate it into products and processes that are directly relevant to coastal planners, and which can be “mainstreamed” into existing programs. This is especially important in their ability to meet FEMA requirements in regards to National Flood Insurance issues.

The north-central coast of California stretches from Point Año Nuevo to Point Arena, and it includes the ocean shorelines of the San Francisco metropolitan area. Historically, this oceanic region has exhibited marked physical and biological variations, indicating the sensitivity of this varied ecosystem to climate changes [Largier et al., 2010]. While improved models and nested downscaling may contribute to greater insight about and attribution for physical and some biological changes in the region, changes at local scales and in complex marine ecosystems may be best estimated from direct observation. However, it is not feasible to monitor explicitly the myriad processes and components that may respond to climate change. Instead, key indicators need to be identified – parameters that can be effectively measured and interpreted in the context of indexing change. Such indicators can be used to monitor climate change at a regional scale, and can be used to inform future management and policy decisions.

USDA forest service has begun a process to revise forest management plans, incorporating climate change and fuels management scenarios. At their request, we established a 5-year cooperative agreement to provide scenario analyses and simulations exploring interactions between climate and fuels management scenarios and their impacts on fire frequency and area burned, fire severity, and fire emissions. The first report, addressing southern Sierra Nevada management scenarios, was delivered in spring 2015, and supports drafting by agency personnel of revised forest management plan and EIS for southern Sierra forests. We conducted outreach seminars with conservation scientists and planners for endangered species habitat.

The California Department of Public Health used our data and distributed it to individual counties to support future planning for county level climate adaptation plans.

For Indigenous peoples in the Great Lakes region (including federally-recognized Tribes), water is afundamental element of spiritual, cultural, economic and political significance. Tribal governments,Indigenous organizations and individual Indigenous families are active in the protection of water quality.Freshwater ecosystems also play a role in the physical sustenance of Indigenous populations, both as afood source and as an important source of economic stability. Water is a key component of thegovernance of federally-recognized Tribes, or Tribal governance, which denotes the idea of a Tribe’sorganizational capacity to exercise self-determination over, and protection of, the spiritual, cultural,economic and political dimensions of Indigenous ways of life.

Data preparation and integration is often inefficient. According to a 2011 NASA request for proposals, scientists and engineers spend more than 60% of their time preparing climate data for analysis. Standardizing the timestep, variables examined, data structure, and quality control processes of these various data sets while creating a single data suite available to climate adaptation practitioners and information providers across the region will increase the understanding of lake, nearshore, and coastal interactions for climate adaptation efforts. It will also drastically improve the efficiency with which scientific analysis can be conducted. To ensure the credibility and sustainability of this product a central component of the work will be documenting these standardization processes. Along with the development of the data set itself this project will create a robust guide to understanding processes used, the justification for those processes, and accessible language to replicate the process with future datasets.

These deliverables will be integrated into the municipal planning process across multiple sites in the Region and the data suite developed will be available to inform planning and future research programs.

The stakeholder meetings offer an opportunity for city leadership and community members to convene and discuss the risks, resources, and needs related to these climate-related events. Mini-grants will increase visibility in each Saint Paul neighborhood and increase awareness of risks and finally, the disaster preparedness kits will serve as a way to share information about risks and increase resilience in the face of climate impacts.Drainage designers and installers as the key to making changes in drainage systems, and this project will emphasize engaging with this key group. Agricultural drainage systems are designed and installed by drainage contractors, also known as land improvement contractors, who together with the agricultural producers that hire them have the key responsibility for deciding to consider and potentially implement on-farm water storage systems. The project team will also gather input from staff of the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service, who make decisions about conservation practices and financial incentives available for farmers and who therefore play a key role in implementation.

Other stakeholders will participate in and benefit from our outreach efforts, but will not be as specifically targeted in our focused efforts to gain input. Methods for gaining input from, and providing outreach to, these stakeholders is detailed in the Methods section, below. We will work with these stakeholders throughout the Western Lake Erie Basin, where offsite impacts of agricultural production are a key concern, and where the existing on- farm water recycling (WRSIS) sites are located. The Western Lake Erie Basin includes parts of Indiana and Michigan with a larger area in Ohio. Additional stakeholders include:• Agricultural producers, who are the key decision-makers in potential implementation,• State and county conservation agency personnel such as Soil and Water ConservationDistricts and the Department of Natural Resources, and• Non-governmental organizations who support agricultural conservation work with farmers, such as The Nature Conservancy and Environmental Defense Fund.

engagement.The Menominee Conservation District (MCD) and Red Lake Band of Chippewa Indians (Red Lake) are Northwoods communities that share the Laurentian Mixed Forest system, and consequently, share similar climate risks. Both are participating in the Model Forest Policy Program’s 2014 climate adaptation planning curriculum. Though they have different governance structures and distinct paths to implementation of their adaptation plans, MCD and Red Lake share the same goal of increasing buy-in and support from stakeholders beyond their natural resource managers. Thus far, stakeholder engagement has been difficult, primarily due to time and resources. In Red Lake, the Department of Natural Resources (DNR) is primarily driving the planning process. The DNR has the authority to create and implement policies that protect the reservation’s natural resources, however it needs final approval from the Tribal Council. Non-DNR programs have only had informal introductions to the planning process. A communications strategy that translates climate impacts for each tribal program will facilitate expansion to a tribal-wide plan. In Menominee County, MCD is primarily driving the planning process. As a Conservation District, their activities depend entirely on voluntary participation and are not regulatory, highlighting the need for stakeholder buy-in. MCD’s planning scope includes Menominee County, the cities of Marinette, WI and Menominee, MI, and the greater Green Bay area. Extensive outreach has begun to stakeholders in these areas. However, most are reluctant to engage in region-wide planning, as they do not see a connection between their work and their local forests. A communications strategy that translates climate impacts will facilitate a regional planning effort.

The primary stakeholders for this project are municipal leaders as well as municipal staff,especially emergency response personnel and community planners. This project aims to directlyengage these stakeholders/decision makers in this very important work. Through the work to draft the SSIP with the advisory committee, the one-on-one SSI analysis with the pilot city, and our dissemination efforts, especially the workshop, webinar, and inclusion on the MARS portal, we will engage these stakeholders/decision makers beyond just information-sharing; there will be an ongoing dialogue between the project team and the project’s intended stakeholders.

Our proposed work is important for a number of reasons:1. The LaMP needs to be updated within the next two years to incorporate climate change and impacts on Lake resources. Given that the State is investing billions of dollars in proposed regional and waterfront development, an updated document, which can guide invest of these dollars is needed sooner.2. Societal reactions to those future uncertain changes cannot be documented. One strategy to discover important reactions to future change and ideas to build resilience is to engage a diverse audience including academia, human health, recreational fishing, boating, agriculture, local small business, energy industry, state and local governments, tribes, tourism interests and natural resource managers in a dialog about these potential reactions.3. Developed scenarios already consider climate impacts and societal reactions. Reassembling the group of stakeholders that developed the scenarios reinforces the idea of embracing uncertainty, and helps them teach new participants how to plan for an uncertain future.4. New York State is anticipating making substantial investment in this area which would benefit from this work.

This addresses ongoing needs for National Parks to consider how climate change is impacting their natural and built resources, as well as staffing and funding priorities.

Through the collaborative efforts of this research, local knowledge was combined with specialist technical advice to identify accurate, timely, and regionally relevant content that helps to preserve freshwater resources and minimize the impacts of drought. This dialogue has led the user community to be better informed about the current state of knowledge of climate variability and its impacts, and the provider community is better informed about what problems and questions are most relevant and better able to match products and services to user requirements.

Through the collaborative efforts of this research, local knowledge was combined with specialist technical advice to identify accurate, timely, and regionally relevant content that helps to preserve freshwater resources and minimize the impacts of drought. This dialogue has led the user community to be better informed about the current state of knowledge of climate variability and its impacts, and the provider community is better informed about what problems and questions are most relevant and better able to match products and services to user requirements.

As part of this interdisciplinary project, the research team are working to understand the context in which the Department of Defense natural resource managers and decision makers in the government of Guam make decisions about how to manage and allocate future freshwater resources, and how a changing climate may affect these decisions. In conjunction with a diverse set of stakeholders, they will research the most effective and helpful ways to translate the hydroclimatological projections generated by the research team into actionable and understandable management information. This research will help stakeholders from Guam become more integrated into the larger circle of freshwater and climate decision makers in the region.

Natural resources managers and decision makers in the Pacific Islands region need up to date syntheses of climate science, projected impacts, and ongoing adaptations in diverse sectors. The PIRCA Sustained Assessment Process brings together experts from academia, NGO’s, non-profits, business, government, and the military to provide state of the knowledge impacts and adaptations to climate variability and change in the Pacific Islands region.

Decision relevant and spatial future land use information was gathered in a continuous and participatory process to create four future future land use scenarios under projected climate conditions on the island of Maui. Changes under future projected climate change in precipitation, recharge, and runoff will be used to guide freshwater planning and land use decision making by county and state agencies, conservation groups, and agricultural stakeholders.

Stakeholder led inputs to likely land cover futures will enhance better planning with respect to future climate related futures, this will enhance planning scenarios and buffer future policy and regulatory instruments for the county of Maui and Oahu, Hawaii.

The theory based evaluation program addresses needs internal to the Pacific RISA program development and guides future research project investment choices and provides demonstrable Pacific RISA impact on state-level adaptation policy-making for stakeholders at the NOAA CPO.

In May, 2015, the Hawaii State Legislature passed HCR 108, requesting the convening of a climate change and health working group to assess the scope and risks of climate on health through the development of a statewide strategic plan. PI’s Lewis and Keener were appointed to serve on the working group for the next calendar year to bring climate science expertise.

This research is being used as an input to efforts conducted by the Pacific RISA and the USGS Pacific Islands Water Science Center (PIWSC) to assess the effects of projected climate changes on aspects of the natural and manmade environments of interest to Hawai‘i

The DOI Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) network practices landscape-level ecosystem conservation. However, continental frameworks may not be appropriate to evaluate island LCC’s and ecosystems. This research will provide the island-based LCC network with more appropriate conservation targets for island ecosystems.

The Information relating to future tropical cyclone modelling will assist county and national officials from Hawaii and the USAPI in the area of planning, disaster risk reduction in planning for future storms and also likely expected trends.

The freshwater and climate policy toolkits provide concrete suggestions to local resource managers and decision makers about how to practically include climate change adaptation into current legal water planning frameworks.

After the PIRCA process, the Pacific RISA, PICCC, and NOAA RCSD collaborated to frame a continuing assessment process that would suit the climate based information needs identified by stakeholders in the 2012 PIRCA report and regional fora. The Pacific RISA identified key stakeholders, sectoral information needs, and management realities on each island. With additional support from the PICSC, initial research gathering discussions were held with a diverse group of stakeholders in American Sāmoa and Majuro, Republic of the Marshall Islands, to start linking technical regional climate variable indicators with impact indicator thresholds and management policy outcomes at the local and sectorally relevant scale.

Understanding perceptions of severe drought and its relationship to water management strategies in an important agricultural production area.

Understanding factors that make innovation and adoption of other strategies more likely

This project provided the first comprehensive storm surge database, which enables coastal populations to better understand their storm surge history and assess risk from coastal flooding.

This project provides the first location-based storm surge history for the U.S. Gulf Coast. Such information will help guide local decision making related to protecting lives and property from storm surge.

This study provides the first data-driven analysis of storm surge return levels for the U.S. Gulf Coast. For example, this research could be used to estimate the height of the 100-year storm surge for specific locations, enabling coastal stakeholders to assess risk.

This study provides the first overview of vulnerability of oil and gas infrastructure to storm surge. This information fills a much-needed gap in coastal hazard risk assessment.

The research will provide insight into how climate change may affect the synoptic climatology of Louisiana and the larger region and how changes in the synoptic patterns may affect the number of raindays and total rainfall.

Need to understand the level of innovation of water utilities across Oklahoma in order to help water managers prepare for future impacts from climate change.

Documenting impacts of extended drought as well as periodic drought and adaptation strategies used by land management organizations.

Documents the types of climate information needed on various time scales by LCCs. This information will be helpful in matching NOAA products and services to meet the needs identified by the LCC participants.

Need for education on the basics of climate science and climate variability and change.

Community-specific climate thresholds, historical and projected climate information at specified threshold

Need to understand the effects of varying temperatures on Mangrove tree survival and forest expansion

Need to understand the weather effects on winter and fall waterfowl

Need a visual analysis of the evolution of drought to improve assessment of drought severity

The need to promote binational Rio Grande-Rio Bravo (RGB) river basin discussion to cope with drought, use climate prediction information and analysis, and to foster planning for uncertain future conditions

Alabama Farmers Federation and individual farmers hope to utilize climate data to assess the risk for aflatoxin and identify the management practices that might increase or reduce the risk for aflatoxin.

Results of this study can be usedfor the farmers to adapt management before the growing seaosn, and to monitor the in-season risk changes based on the values of the drought index.

Alabama Farmers federation and individual farmers hope to utilize climate data to adjust nitrogen fertilization which will contribute to increase envoronmental stewardship and profitability

Results of this study can be used by wheat farmers and extension agents on the identification of Hesian Fly risk using the climate forecast, farmers based on the expected risks can decide wheter or not to plant wheat, increase or decrease wheat acreage, wheat variety selection to minimize Hessian Fly risk, adjust planting date.

Results of this study can be used by wheat farmers and extension agents to assess the potential impact an specific ENSO phase has on wheat yield, but in particular an specific wheat variety maturity group and how th impact change among locations. This information can be used for wheat variety selection based on climate forecast. The use of this information to adjust management can reduce climate-related risks

Minority farmers in the Southeast are interested in using information on climate variability and climate change but delivery of the information will require us to develop delivery methods unique to this group

Our overall goal is to prepare stakeholders to face the challenges posed by climate variability and change by increasing relevant knowledge and motivation of citizens, professionals, and agency personnel, and to collaborate on the development of solutions and implementation of actions that can reduce potential impacts on the agricultural industry.

Current irrigation scheduling techniques in the Southeast during times of drought may result in conflicts between agricultural, environmental, and urban users. Science-based irrigation scheduling is needed to reduce the potential for conflict.

Updated climate change and climate variablity information affecting the southeastern US is provided to agricultural and water extension in the SECC, outreach material and informationon climate is directly provided to many stakeholders (e.g. row crop climate working group, Florida Water and Climate Alliance)

1. US Drought Monitor input by State Climatologist utilizes products produced2. State Water Management Committee utilizes output from tools listed above to determine water and crop stress levels

Current irrigation scheduling techniques in the Southeast during times of drought may result in conflicts between agricultural, environmental, and urban users. Science-based irrigation scheduling is needed to reduce the potential for conflict.

Information on adaption technologies and strategies will be delivered through webinars, the Livestock and Poultry website, online courses, and publications.

Results of this study can be used by all kinds of water stakeholders in Alabama to prepare for future climate changes.

Results of this study can be used by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, state environmental protection agencies, and industrial point source dischargers. Climate forecasts will help with point source discharge permitting and protection of the surface water quality.

Results of this study can be used by all stakeholders in Alabama and ACF River Basins to plan for future droughts.

Results of this study can be used by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, state and environmental protection agencies, and USDA-NRCS to reduce erosion caused by future climate changes for the protection of soil and water quality.

1. Stakeholders have expressed a need for seasonal forecasting tools with high skill for crop management; 2. Stakeholders have expressed a need for better understanding climate

Results from this work will enhance knowledge of potential storm surge resulting from the combined effects of changing hurricane activity and sea-level rise along the coastal regions of the southeast United States.

Provide guidance to funding agencies on how to support large collaborative interdisciplinary projects - Team Science

Results of this study could be used by the community involved in seasonal prediction of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity

Ecologists in Puerto Rico are concerned about species migration and preservation on the ecologically rich island of in the context of global climate change.

This project will evaluate the skill of the NMME at scales relevant to water resource managers

Increase the regional relevance and usability of climate and sea level rise models for water suppliers and resources managers in Florida

improve water resource managers’ capacity to respond to climate change and variability

(University of Florida), Associate Dean for Extension-Agricultural Program, to coordinate a regional professional development program for agents on the subject of climate change. Dr. Dusky approached the leadership of three USDA-NIFA-funded regional climate projects to undertake this task. A 12-member planning task force was created. After extensive planning and scoping, the task force designed and facilitated a three-day program that was designed to:

• Support Extension professionals in the application of climate science and stakeholder engagement methods for developing place-based adaptation and mitigation options that support more resilient forest, crop, livestock, and coastal systems in the Southeastern USA; and• Build an alumni network of innovative leaders in Extension who are knowledgeable on key climate science basics, skilled in stakeholder engagement strategies, capable of being state or local resources, and can share ideas with others regionally through exchanging innovative program ideas and outreach materials.

Each State Extension Director was invited to select up to 16 Extension professionals (county agents and specialists) to attend the program. Extension professionals gathered at a region-wide in-service training in Athens, Georgia from September 3rd to 5th, 2014. This training academy was designed to be a starting point for Extension professionals to learn climate science and change issues and network with colleagues across the region. In addition, the training was designed to explore how their programming might be modified to include information about management strategies in the face of emerging threats from a changing climate.

Commodity groups, agricultural policy makers, and individual farmers hope to utilize climate model projections and simulated yields to optimize selection of crops to maintain yields and profitability

Testing whether a decision optimization tool can help water supply planners

Better understanding of universe of possible extreme events and spatial and temporal patterns for emergency preparedness

Requests by Utah water managers for climate information and literacy

Stakholder request for climate adaptation plan

Requests by forest managers for vulnerability assessments

Informing stakeholders of new techniques that can improve snowpack monitoring and streamflow forecasting and assessing stakeholder interest

Need for drought and climate technical information and assistance for drought planning

Need among general public and some stakeholders for better understanding of science and policy behind western water

Various needs for climate information from conservation agencies

Request by SLCPUD for technical and adaptation guidance

Request by Colorado Water Conservation Board for update of previous climate report to incorporate CMIP5

Request by Colorado Energy Office to meet legislative reporting requirements on climate change information

Stakeholder needs for understanding of adaptation responses under drought or extreme events

Stakeholder (TNC) request for climate information to guide adaptation efforts

Stakeholder requests for consolidated climate and hydrology information

Abstract/Description

The general goal of this project is to mobilize an integrated assessment framework based on a cumulative effects approach developed originally by the Council of Environmental Quality that links broad-scale assessment and inventories of adaptive capacity with GIS and with local-scale ethnographic research to provide a composite and truly integrated assessment of communities responding to change.

The goal of this effort will be to create an ocean acidification sensitivity index (OASI) for the waters around Alaska based on the degree of carbonate mineral undersaturation that we are currently observing, the potential for further changes in the future, the value of commercial organisms in each region and the potential impacts to subsistence communities.

The Ocean Acidification Research Center (OARC) has a number of ongoing projects working to better understand how ocean chemistry in Alaska waters is vulnerable to acidification from of a host of regional stressors. As addressed in the Ocean Acidification Sensitivity Index (OASI), ocean acidification (OA) has important implications in Alaska because of potential impacts on the fishing industry. The purpose of this project is to better understand public perception in Alaska of OA, ocean health, and related research and policy. A random public survey assessed public perception of ocean threats, the basic level of understanding of ocean and climate related issues, and support for ocean-related research and policy. Results will be used to strategize public outreach at OARC. In conjunction with the OA Sensitivity Index we will determine gaps in the public understanding of OA and identify where and how to focus outreach and education initiatives. Collectively, this information will direct ACCAP and OARC on how to best communicate with communities and commercial fishing interests to prepare for future ocean changes.

The landscape of climate science and service organizations and entities in Alaska has expanded rapidly over the past three years and continues to dynamically evolve. This social network analysis will map the relationships, communication channels and information exchange between federal, state, tribal, industry and non-profit entities engaged in climate science and services in Alaska in order to provide an informed context for identifying and planning future ACCAP research and outreach. A detailed, nested analysis of the networks of science and stakeholders specific to the DOI Alaska Climate Science Center (CSC) and FWS Landscape Conservation Cooperatives in Alaska will inform Alaska CSC activities and planning.

Many operators of existing hydropower facilities in the state of Alaska manage their water resources with little or no information about water stored in the snowpack or streamflows feeding the reservoirs. They also lack the capacity for making use of seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation that may be linked to known modes of climate variability (i.e. El Nino-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation), let alone long-term projections of climate change. As several municipalities depending on these facilities face relicensing and others consider new license applications, it is increasingly important that the people who design, finance, build, own, and manage these facilities grow their capacity to make use of near real-time environmental monitoring, make use of seasonal forecasts, and consider the projected impacts of long-term climate change. The proposed project will 1. Study the existing use of climate information in the Alaska hydropower sector; 2. Identify the relationships between climate variability and water resources in the areas of existing and proposed hydropower facilities and the likely impacts of climate change; and 3. Work to translate these technical analyses to hydropower managers, planners, and decision-makers for existing and proposed facilities.

Development of data and mapping architecture to support spatial analysis. This work will provide an initial platform from which future work can be launched including decision support tools.

We conducted a meta-analysis of 65 documents addressing research needs related to climate change in order to identify common needs and gaps where needs have not been assessed. We collected needs assessments and associated documents through web searches and confirmed the list by speaking with local experts in different sectors. To qualify, documents must identify practical or policy-related climate change research needs in Alaska. Entities served by needs assessments included local and state government, federal agencies, state agencies and non-profits. Existing documents were collected, imported into NVIVO, a qualitative data analysis software, reviewed, and then coded. We coded both for research needs and research approach.

Research on coastal change in Western Alaska has increased rapidly in recent years, making it challenging to track existing projects, understand their cumulative insights, gauge remaining research gaps, and prioritize future research. We identify existing coastal change research in Western Alaska and synthesize each project’s focus, approach, and findings. The resulting report documented the project landscape for communities facing change, decision-makers navigating change, researchers pursuing projects, as well as funding agencies trying to prioritize where to allocate resources. The goal of this effort is to help the Western Alaska Landscape Conservation Cooperative (WALCC) meet its mission of coordinating, developing, and disseminating applied science to inform conservation in the context of climate change.

We created a Mapbox website showing the distribution of projects across the Western Alaska landscape. We used online information, existing databases, and discussions with project PI’s to obtain the geographic location for each project including the latitude and longitude and the name of the geographic location (e.g. village name). If this information was unavailable, we tried to place projects in a general region (e.g. Bering Strait). Spatial points represent the locations of coastal change projects. Unique color markers were used to identify topic areas (human systems, biological systems, landscape/geophysical systems, and oceanographic systems).Unique colors represent human (purple), biological (green), landscape-geographic (orange), and oceanographic (blue) system projects.

Coastal communities, marine navigation, industry (fishing, tourism, offshore resource extraction), the military, and Earth/Arctic system science research have all expressed a clear need for an Alaska sea ice atlas. Indeed, many requests for historical and climatological sea ice information for Alaska coastal waters presently go unanswered because such an atlas does not exist. The availability of GIS software, in-house expertise and historical databases extending back to the 1850s makes the construction of an Alaska sea ice atlas timely and feasible. The atlas consists of digitally-stored sea ice concentration data on a grid covering all Alaska coastal waters to a distance of ~500 km (300 mi) from shore, with a spatial resolution of 25 km. The time resolution is monthly for the period 1850s-1950s, and weekly for the period from the early 1950s to 2010 with the allowance of subsequent updates.

Climate divisions outline geographic regions with homogenous climate variability. Divisions are often used for addressing climate trends, drought and other seasonal/annual climate monitoring and prediction applications. Thirteen climate division were recently delineated for Alaska, potentially opening up new avenues of climate and prediction for the region. Monthly divisional average temperature and precipitation were calculated using the Global Historical Climatology Network – Daily (GHCND) data set for 1920-2012. Analysis showed that divisional average temperature is reasonably representative of the monthly variability at historical stations within each division, with precipitation being less representative. Decadal variability was evident in the temperature time series for all divisions matching the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, while no coherent signal was found for precipitation. Short-term trends of temperature were found to be linked with the decadal variability, while long-term trends appear to occur with the decadal variability superimposed. Trends in precipitation were highly variable. The effect of polar amplification was evident in the North Slope climate division of Alaska with significant warming over the most recent decades. Analysis of extreme events is ongoing.

This project focuses on future infrastructure development scenarios in the North Slope, Alaska. The project was commissioned by the North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) with participation by the North Slope Borough and Arctic Slope Regional Corporation representing local concerns. The first stage of this project will provide information to stakeholders on current knowledge and uncertainties in relevant social, economic and environmental factors that may affect onshore and offshore resource extraction development.

We will build and engage a broad stakeholder network including state and federal agencies, local communities, industry and scientists to develop plausible infrastructure development scenarios through 2040. The second stage of the project will include two workshops to develop and refine the scenarios, resulting in outreach and a report with mapped products. A third workshop will provide information to NSSI and agencies on monitoring needs and information gaps needed to assess changes resulting for infrastructure development on the North Slope.

Developed in collaboration with the National Weather Service, this tool is designed to provide information to the public about notable weather and climate events in Alaska and surrounding waters. Data reported are preliminary observations by NOAA/National Weather Service and are reported in daily, multi-day, monthly, and longer time scales.

Users can select date ranges, filter results by weather event type, click on individual events for further information about each event, and zoom in and out of the map. Events are added and updated in near real time.

Do you lay awake at nights wondering what the upcoming season will be like? Want to place bets with friends and family on next month's weather? If so, good news:

The tools and techniques for making monthly and season scale climate forecasts are rapidly changing, with the potential to provide useful forecasts at the month and longer range. Rick Thoman (Climate Science and Services Manager, Environmental and Scientific Services Division, National Weather Service Alaska Region) will review recent climate conditions around Alaska, review forecast tools and finish up with the Climate Prediction Center's forecast for the upcoming season.

Rick will also present a "Feature-of-the-Month" special addition in which each month he will highlight a topic relevant to the particular month.

This is a monthly series generally taking place the third Friday of each month.

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The Northeastern U.S. urban corridor of New York City, Philadelphia and Boston is threatened today by coastal storms, and climate change is likely to increase this threat due to predicted changes such as sea level rise. A project is outlined here that would merge the most successful existing tools for predicting coastal storm winds and storm surges and their evolution in a changing climate. A combination of stochastic and deterministic models, ranging from highly simplified to highly detailed, will be utilized. Results from several global climate models will be utilized to produce multi-model best estimates (including uncertainty ranges) of the impact of climate change on sea level, storm frequency and storm intensity. The primary objective of the project is to produce probabilistic risk assessments for the present, the 2050s and the 2080s, using stakeholder-defined metrics for urban watersheds. Major innovations beyond other prior studies include (a) the use of a highly detailed, extensively validated ocean model to provide probabilistic, yet accurate forecasts; and (b) inclusion of rainfall and storm surge based flooding in one combined modeling system.

We propose to leverage existing hydrodynamic model-based flood zone mapping and risk assessments to quantify the value of living shorelines and map their flood protection services. A case study of Jamaica Bay, New York City (NYC) will be utilized where city planners, resource managers and the National Parks Service are faced with rapidly eroding wetlands. They lack the information they need to make decisions regarding the flood protections provided by these natural shorelines to hundreds of thousands of residents in low-lying nearby areas of NYC, and here we lay out a collaborative plan to help create this information.Outcomes and outputs from the proposed research include: (1) an evaluation of the influence of pre-development and present-day living shorelines on NYC’s coastal flood hazard; (2) a set of three future living shoreline adaptation scenarios, collaboratively determined in a workshop with city planners, resource managers, and our science team, (3) a cost-benefit analysis of each shoreline adaptation scenario; (4) an online mapping tool that demonstrates how coastal flood zones will change with sea level rise and each coastal adaptation scenario, created in consultation with the NOAA Coastal Services Center; (5) a transferable, peer-reviewed andpublished framework that can be applied for other U.S. coastal regions.

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The primary objectives of this project are to: 1) identify and gather all existing water quality data sets from Jamaica Bay; 2) integrate data sets from GNRA and NYCDEP into a Jamaica Bay-specific database; 3) identify spatial and temporal patterns of water quality in Jamaica Bay; and 4) develop analytical tools for measuring resilience and detecting water quality regime shifts within Jamaica Bay in response to drivers and disturbances (e.g. hurricanes, dredging of channels, changes in land use, changes in water treatment practices).

The water management community of the Northeast U.S. faces a unique set of climate challenges that are relatively understudied. These include aging infrastructure, declining water demand and revenues, potential hardening of demand due to previous efficiency efforts and the expectation of more variable climate and reduced natural storage from snowpack. The challenges are shared by most of the larger, technically sophisticated water utilities in the urban areas and the numerous midsized cities with aging infrastructure and limited technical capacity. In consideration of the local conditions and the previous results of other RISA’s, the proposed effort will initiate a knowledge network of water managers for the Northeast region. Through collaboration within the network we will identify information gaps and needs and develop and evaluate climate information products that respond to identified needs.

This project will develop and test a new framework for the next generation of urban Green Infrastructure (GI) that exploits the multi-functionality of GI for coastal city sustainability, builds a platform for real-time monitoring and control of urban GI networks, and takes account of the role of humans in GI stewardship and long-term functionality. The project will use the Bronx River Sewershed in New York City, where a $80 million investment in GI is planned over the next 5-years, as its living test bed. GI has its roots in several disciplines, and the project brings together expertise from these disciplines, including civil and environmental engineering, environmental science, and plant science/ horticulture. In addition, the project integrates expertise from other disciplines needed to elevate GI performance to the next level, including urban planning and design, climate science, data science, environmental microbiology, environmental law and policy, inter-agency coordination, community outreach and citizen science.

Sea level rise and climate-driven changes in extreme weather patterns mean even greater future threats to the City’s waterfront. These future scenarios must be modeled so that they can be integrated into resilience planning. Through this pilot, researchers from Columbia University’s Center for Climate Systems Research will provide more detail about their use of models to develop more refined climate scenario projections of: 1) sea level rise,; 2) coastal flood event return times under a wide range of sea level and coastal storm scenarios; and 3) projected breadth and severity of inland flooding/stormwater inundation during extreme weather events.

In this project, we will a) conduct a multi-decadal three-dimensional hindcast of Long Island Sound (LIS) to study hypothesized linkages between the Sound’s physical climate and its recent ecological response and b) project future impacts of climate change and variability on the LIS ecosystem and its living marine resources over the span of the 21st century through model development and synthesis.

It is the mission of the Climate and Urban Systems Partnership to develop and implement a network of climate-education focused organizations to deliver a multi-platform, targeted, coordinated program of climate change education programs that will have a significant impact on urban populations’ understanding of and engagement with climate change. CUSP calls for a targeted, coordinated approach that relies on connecting personal passions to urban systems and how they will be impacted by a changing climate.

CIESIN will i) implement the physical habitat model of the Hudson River Estuary and ii) conduct a comprehensive ecological assessment to characterize the habitat units. The ecological assessment will serve as the foundation for the Hudson River Comprehensive Restoration Plan, a joint-project between the Army Corps of Engineers, DEC and NYS Department of State. The ultimate goal of the Restoration Plan is to identify hands-on projects that will benefit the environment and the communities along the Hudson River.

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A city's urban heat island exhibits fine structure on the neighborhood scale due to local characteristics (such as building height and vegetation) that respond differently to large scale environmental forcing. The local bias from the modeled temperature would vary depending both on the location withing the coarse structure of the urban heat island and on these local characteristics. Our objective is to use neighborhood-scale field campaign data to develop model output statistics to downscale model forecasts of temperature and humidity.

Although heat health warning systems are an important city-level adaptation measure, assessing and improving their effectiveness is difficult due the ambiguity associated with attributing heat-related deaths, the lack of clearly outlined structure, information flow, decision making processes, and interactions among the various stakeholders and communities before and during heat wave events (WHO). Thus, in the context of CCRUN, the heath team will perform interviews with key stakeholders in each city in order to characterize the type of triggers used to issue a warning, participating agencies, as well as and the interventions implemented as a part of the heat response strategy. In this process, we will also communicate the findings from our research to stakeholders and develop tools that may be used by stakeholders involved in the response to extreme heat. If additional funding becomes available, we will also carry out studies to assess the implementation and effectiveness of the developed tools.

Allergic diseases affect a substantial proportion of people living in urban areas in the United States in general and in New York City specifically. Many types of pollen are considered to be allergens, and have been linked to several manifestations of allergic disease, including allergic sensitization, exacerbation of allergic rhinitis, and exacerbation of allergic asthma. However, the role of pollen in temporal patterns of allergic disease is incompletely understood, and virtually nothing is known about the spatial distribution of pollen within cities and the relevance of this distribution to health. A better understanding of these relationships is especially critical as the length and severity of the annual pollen season are sensitive to temperature and CO 2 concentrations and thus could be exacerbated by climate change. The overall objective of this proposal is to measure the spatial abundance and temporal patterns of tree pollen in New York City and examine their associations with several allergic outcomes. We will also test the hypothesis that diesel exhaust exposure enhances allergic sensitization to tree pollen.

Projections of temperature-related mortality are limited by information necesasry to formulate hypotheses about future demographics as well as vulnerable populations. In this paper, we develop adaptation models that project the populations response to heat until 2100 using data on daily temperature and mortality from 1900-present, as well as demogrpahic scenarios characterizing possible changes in NYC population. We calculate future heat-related mortality in NYC by combining the developed temperature-mortality relationships and population scenarios with the downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models and 2 RCPs.

Excess temperature is associated with morbidity and mortality. Clarification of the relationship between heat/humidity exposure and health outcomes, however, requires a detailed understanding of these exposures in the indoor environment. Although urban residents spend approximately 90% of their time indoors, to date our understanding of indoor exposures to heat and humidity is extremely limited. In this ongoing project we aim to quantify levels of indoor summertime heat and humidity in a cross-section of homes in New York City, and to examine the associations between outdoor and indoor temperature and humidity. We relate the distribution of indoor temperatures to the important question of indoor heat danger during historical and future heat waves in New York City.

The Delaware water release policies are constrained by the dictates of two US Supreme Court Decrees (1931 and 1954) and the need for unanimity among four states: New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Delaware -- and New York City. Stakeholder groups include New York City, a variety of environmental interests, past and potential flood victims, and the key environmental and water organizations from these states. Coordination of their activities and the operation under the existing decrees is provided by the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC). While much progress on improving the release rules has been made since 2006 (Kolesar & Serio, 2011; Wang, 2009; Gong et al., 2010), we have identified a number of unresolved issues which deserve analytic attention, and for which we are confident that quantitatively based recommendations can be generated and offered for consideration to the stakeholders by the Delaware River Basin Commission.

Changes in population and water resources impact urban water supply. In this study the case of Newark's decreasing population and increasing water supply is analyzed considering different demand and climate scenarios. A potential inter-basin and inter-State collaboration between the Passaic River Basin and the Hackensack River Basin (NJ-NY States) is studied as a way to satisfy increasing water demands and to repair aging infrastructure.

This project will create an easy to use, free, online mapping tool that lets users assess the impacts of flood inundation posed by sea level rise, storm surge and rain events on communities bordering the lower Hudson River and its major tributaries. The study area for this project is all counties adjacent to the Hudson River from the southern border of Westchester County to the Federal Dam at Troy. The hydrologic model will use the sea level rise predictions and time series as requested by NYSERDA and additionally create new and more accurate models of flood inundation resulting from storm surges and typical rain events. These flood inundation data will be applied to newly created social and economic vulnerability layers to measure and map flood risk for the region. The customized mapping tool will allow users to select a particular region of interest and predicted flood scenarios and then visualize the impact on community resources. Users will also be able to download maps and summary statistics from their specific queries. This tool will be a valuable resource for those looking to assess risk, identify areas suitable for tidal wetland migration and evaluate the cost/benefit of proposed climate change mitigation options.

Along the northeast urban corridor (NEUC), damage from flooding related to storm surges is one of the most certain impacts of climate change, making adaptation in coastal zones that are vulnerable to storm surges one of the highest priorities in the NEUC. This project is a collaboration between the CCRUN coastal team, the evaluation team, CIESIN, the Office of Long Term Planning and Sustainability (NYC), the City of Boston Environmental and Energy Services, and other stakeholders to develop adaptation blueprints that specify actions and implementation processes for neighborhoods with different vulnerability profiles in NYC and Boston. We will develop flooding maps for several different storm scenarios and time periods that integrate the effects of storm surge, rainfall, and sea level rise and that accurately account for land topography. We will integrate into these maps assessments of vulnerability that include socioeconomic factors, land use, and infrastructure. The dynamic nature of the maps will enable stakeholders to analyze the implications of new data for adaptation decisions. We will complement the maps with an analysis of vulnerabilities specific to different types of neighborhoods. The vulnerability analysis will provide a basis for the design of education modules for neighborhoods with different vulnerability profiles that will launch the development of preparedness plans and longer-term adaptation blueprints for these neighborhoods. The education modules will serve as models for catalyzing similar processes in other urban locations.

Same as above

This project will will assess the role that social features of urban neighborhoods play in resilience to flooding, with Superstorm Sandy as the principal case. This will include an analysis of the social and economic co-benefits of green infrastructure experienced by the neighborhoods affected by Sandy, with a focus on the interactions between the effects of green space and social features that may have contributed to resilience to flooding.

Climate change is expected to alter urban climatological conditions throughout the CCRUN study area. This research effort investigates the impact of changes to precipitation and temperature on the hydrology of urban spaces and the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems connected to them directly or indirectly through infrastructure. Specifically, we are investigating relationships between climatological conditions and water/wastewater/stormwater infrastructure, with a focus on a) impacts of climate conditions on water and wastewater treatment plant performance, b) how varying levels of climatically impacted infrastructure performance relate to various indicators of public health and c) the use of various green infrastructure (GI) strategies as a climate change adaptation strategy (through its role in reducing the energy and GHG emissions associated with less stormwater and enhanced urban evapotranspiration).

Utilizing a variety of sensors installed at the Nashville Greenstreet, this study describes the fate and transport of precipitation falling in the vicinity of this green infrastructure facility.

In this study, which will be expanded to include other storms, we have documented in detail exactly how much precipitation was deposited on the Nashville greenstreet, how much runoff came in through the inlet, what impact this had on soil moisture, surface ponding, and the depth to groundwater.

The goal of this research is better understand how climate change projected to occur in the northeast US will impact urban vegetation installed in Green-Infrastructure. Specifically, we want to determine which species will adapt better to drought and flood conditions, and are able to recover their environmental functions immediately afterwards.

This project aims to study the relationship between building damages during Sandy and the orientation of that building relative to different kinds of green infrastructure

To quantitatively superimpose insights about climatological, social, and biophysical dynamics observed by the project team, spatially and temporally explicit agent-based models will be built to represent one of the Bronx CSO-sheds

The purpose of this project is to start amultidisciplinary dialogue the strengths and weaknesses of green infrastructure as an urban adaptation strategy.

The Northeastern U.S. urban corridor of New York City, Philadelphia and Boston is threatened today by coastal storms, and climate change is likely to increase this threat due to predicted changes such as sea level rise. Here, we utilize hydrodynamic modeling based flood scenario mapping and full hazard assessments to quantify the value of a range of coastal adaptation measures and map their flood protection services. Case studies of Jamaica Bay, New York City (NYC) and Jersey City, New Jersey are being demonstrated under NOAA Sea Grant and NOAA-COCA funding. Managers lack the information they need to make decisions regarding the flood protections, and here we create data and a web tool to provide this information.

Hundreds of thousands of NYC residents in Jamaica Bay’s watershed live on land vulnerable to flooding from a hurricane storm tide. Many types of coastal protective features, ranging from surge barriers to natural features like wetlands and oyster beds, have been suggested as solutions for coastal flooding around the bay. Water quality and storm damage avoidance are integrally linked research topics, as storm protection efforts can harm water quality and alter ecosystems. A project is outlined here to improve upon existing mathematical computer modeling capabilities for Jamaica Bay and to run experiments to study climate change, sea level rise and coastal adaptation impacts on water quality and storm damages. An important part of the project plan is to build Jamaica Bay Science and Resilience Institute consortium technical capacity by making these models available for consortium member use.

The Connecticut River Basin is the principal water source for communities in portions of Vermont, New Hampshire, central Massachusetts and central Connecticut, with over 70 major dams and reservoirs in operation to help control the water supply. This project will provide The Nature Conservancy, the US Army Corps of Engineers and other stakeholders with climate-informed guidance for current and future dam operations, and illustrate the potential trade-offs between policies that optimize one or more of services provided by the systems’ operations. Downscaled data from climate model projections, fed into hydrology models, is used to construct informed streamflow forecasts; these in turn support a reservoir management model that enhances the biological community supported by the river, and existing infrastructural services including flood control, water supply, recreation and hydropower generation. This project also involves the development of decision support tools to guide river operations and to facilitate stakeholder involvement. Workshops are held to gather information about stakeholder requirements for the basin, such as ecological flow targets and dam operations

Many metrics of interest to NYC are the result of extreme precipitation and streamflow events. Recent observations and climate models suggest that the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events is increasing and may continue to increase in the future. Accurate modeling of these extremes is important in order to quantify the effects these events will have on water supply metrics. Several parametric and semi-parametric weather generators are tested, and one is chosen to generate climate extremes for the NYCWSS representing current and future conditions.

NYCDEP is interested in the effects of climate change on the NYCWSS and the potential for mitigating these effects through operations. Utilizing a screening level model, simple changes in operations will be compared to projected changes in climate to determine which has the greater influence on future system performance. These results will identify sequences that may result in poor performance, will give a broad view of the system's vulnerability to climate change, and can be checked with results from the more sophisticated Operations Support Tool.

New York City Department of Environmental Protection is interested in improving the operations of its extensive reservoir system. During conversations with the agency, two approaches to addressing these interests emerged: 1) Continue exploration of new operating rules that perform well when the system is stressed, and 2) Create and evaluate highly flexible rules that are sufficiently robust that further needed modifications are less likely in the future. There is continued interest developing robust operating rules for the water supply system that may be impacted by climate change. One idea discussed was the development of specific hydrologic regimes that have occurred in the past that create water management challenges. By focusing on the flow regimes known to cause problems, rather than the many flow sequences in the past that do not created challenges, the analysis could seek optimal solutions for a variety of characteristic problematic flow regimes. The approach would be to categorize antecedent conditions and events, and specify specific operating policies that work robustly for these events. In general we would seek proxies for operations and better surrogates for understanding challenges conditions as they arise. We would also seek a “taxonomy” of the past events that create challenges. Questions that arise are if a new set of rules is developed in response to projected changes in climate, at what point do operators begin using this new set of rules? And is a shift in operations better than gradually replacing rules as operators override them based on current conditions and models?

A research project is proposed to utilize COAMPS-TC ensemble tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts as atmospheric forcing for a well-established, highly detailed hydrodynamic modeling system (sECOM) and coastal flood warning system for the U.S. Northeast. Validation hindcasts will be performed for TCs Irene and Sandy to explore the utility of this approach, and a real-time forecasting system will also be set up for future storms.

Excess temperature is associated with morbidity and mortality. Clarification of the relationship between heat/humidity exposure and health outcomes, however, requires a detailed understanding of these exposures in the indoor environment. Although urban residents spend approximately 90% of their time indoors, to date our understanding of indoor exposures to heat and humidity is extremely limited. In this ongoing project we aim to quantify levels of indoor summertime heat and humidity in a cross-section of homes in New York City, and to examine the associations between outdoor and indoor temperature and humidity. We relate the distribution of indoor temperatures to the important question of indoor heat danger during historical and future heat waves in New York City.

Following Hurricane Sandy, Mayor Bloomberg convened the second New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC2) in January 2013 to provide the latest scientific information on climate risks for use in the Special Initiative on Rebuilding and Resiliency (SIRR). CCRUN climate scientists are leading the NPCC2 technical team in developing new climate projections for New York City.

This project will produce a complete set of building footprint and critical infrastructure data for all counties adjacent to the Hudson River from the southern border of Westchester County to the Federal Dam at Troy, as well as counties outside NYC adjacent to Long Island Sound. This data will be integrated with current property asset data from the NYS Office of Real Property Service and evaluated for potential storm surge and sea level rise impacts in accordance with data produced from two previous NYSERDA-funded projects related to coastal flooding. General adaptation and mitigation strategies appropriate for addressing flood risk will be attached as attributes of impacted buildings and made available through a web mapping tool.

Climate change is expected to look different in different places. For this reason, regionally specific projections of climate and environmental change are important for developing effective adaptation strategies. The goal of the Integrated Scenarios of the Future Northwest Environment project was to use the latest global climate models, and state-of-the science models of vegetation and hydrology, to describe what the latest science says about the Northwest’s future climate, vegetation, and hydrology. Projec was jointly funded by CIRC and the Northwest Climate Science Center (NW CSC), the Integrated Scenarios project’s goal was to describe—as completely and accurately as possible—what climate science says about the Northwest’s future environment under climate change, and to make specific data from the project available to Northwest planners, resource managers, and other scientists. To do this, Integrated Scenarios team members—which included researchers at the Oregon State University, the University of Washington, the University of Idaho, and the nonprofit Conservation Biology Institute—evaluated the performance of 41 global climate models (GCMs) from the Couple Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Data from a subset of high performing models run were then downscaled for the Northwest using two climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). This data was then used in the creation of series of hydrologic and vegetation simulations to model changes to the year 2100.Project Accomplishments:§ Efforts from this project was used to leverage the work of two other CIRC projects (PUMA and Willamette Water 2100).§ Use of CIRC data in the PUMA project has helped both the Portland Water Bureau and Seattle Public Utilities hydrologically model their watersheds§ The project research has lead to 8 studies being published in peer reviewed journals§ Data from the project has is available for download at http://climate.nkn.uidaho.edu/IntegratedScenarios/§ The data is including being used by over 20 research teams, as well as the US Fish & Wildlife Service, US Forest Service, USGS, Seattle Public Utilities, Portland Water Bureau, and EPA.

Landscape-scale ecological modeling has been hindered by a lack of suitable high-resolution surface meteorological datasets that include temperature, precipitation, downward shortwave radiation, humidity, and winds.

To overcome these limitations, CIRC researcher John Abatzoglou combined the desirable attributes of gridded climate data from the Parameter Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) with desirable temporal attributes of regional-scale reanalysis and daily gauge-based precipitation from NASA’s Land Data Assimilation Systems-2.

Improve the accessibility of the Integrated Scenarios datasets to two types of stakeholders by 1) adding improved functionality to the data portal on the website to allow downloads of data in different formats, 2) adding a visualization section to the website, in which data could be customized and visualized on the fly through maps and figures, 3) working collaboratively with the NPLCC (North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative) in developing a single case study of using IS data with a conservation planning application, and 4) exploring the feasibility of uploading a small subset of summary layers to the NPLCC CPA/Data Basin site and contributing to summary layers for web tools (such as the Derivative Portal) made by CIDA. The UI team led by co-PIs-Hegewisch and Abatzoglou and assisted by a graduate student will be primarily tasked with extending the current Integrated Scenarios website to include new dynamic data access, visualization tools, and an example case study. First, the UI will perform phone/teleconference interviews of 5-10 users from the community that have an interest in the different Integrated Scenarios datasets to include demographics across different government agencies and conservation partnerships, Second, the UI will improve the existing data portal on the Integrated Scenarios webpage by adding functionality that will allow users to download data in different formats and to customize time series to their area of interest. Third, the UI will add a ‘Visualization Portal’, where the user can visualize the data by either looking at time-series, spatial maps or scatter plots of variable projections over the different global climate models (GCMs). Fourth, the UI will add information to the Integrated Scenarios website to ensure that the page serves as an introductory guide to information on 1) global climate models (GCMs), 2) the future RCP scenarios, 3) selecting GCMs for studies and performing proper analysis within the intent of these climate studies. Fifth, the UI will work with NPLCC staff to 1) connect to an applied conservation planning effort for the case study and help the partnership select and make available a meaningful subset of IS data on the NPLCC’s information management platform, 2) help frame and edit a case study, and 3) create a guide that helps other efforts in deciding how to analyze and use IS data for their planning project. Sixth, at the end of this project, the UI and the NPLCC will advertise the website through many different outlets.

Willamette Water 2100 (WW2100) is a 5 year, $4M NSF and NOAA-funded project to create and apply a computer model of the Willamette River Basin exploring how future scenarios of climate change, population growth and economic growth may alter the availability and use of water on a decadal to centennial timescale. WW2100 (focused on predicting water scarcity in the context of climate change and variability), improved Envision-based model of urban and rural residential growth and expansion for the period 2010 – 2050 in southern Willamette Valley. Modeling population growth and commensurate land use change as a driver of water scarcity in the Willamette Basin. WW2100 is evaluating how climate change, population growth, land-use, economic growth, and legal and policy drivers will change the availability and the use of water in Oregon’s Willamette River Basin on a decadal to centennial timescale. The project employs the Envision agent-based modeling platform. What is this project doing? Modeling the Willamette River Water System: The project is developing hydrologic, socio-economic, and ecological models for the Willamette basin. It’s integrating these models into a Geographic Information System-based modeling framework called Envision. Elucidating and Explaining Interactions: Envision is allowing the Willamette Water 2100 team to study interactions, linkages, and feedbacks in the Willamette water system. For example – how are farmers, fisheries, and reservoir managers likely to respond if climate change leads to earlier snowmelt that alters the timing and distribution of stream flows? Identifying Vulnerabilities: The project is identifying locations, timing, and uses where water scarcity is likely to emerge or expand in future decades. Comparing Alternatives: With stakeholder input, the project is conducting policy analysis to evaluate ways to prevent, mitigate or adapt to projected water scarcity. Simplifying: Lessons learned in the Willamette may help others identify, evaluate, and respond to water scarcity in other regions.

This paper explores the fundamental structure of state and federal law as it relates to the Willamette River Basin in Oregon, which is a familiar story for many basins in the U.S. Part I describes an interdisciplinary research project that seeks to integrate law and policy change into a set of future hydrologic scenarios on a hundred-year time scale for the Willamette Basin—the “Willamette Water 2100” project. Part II explains the value of integrating hydrologic modeling with law and policy on a basin scale. Part III begins to build a legal framework for both state and federal law and focuses on the particular pieces of those legal structures that are the most influential drivers for the management of water flow in the Willamette River. In addition, this part explores the inherent discretion and flexibility within existing law to help frame the conversation about what kinds of reasonable future scenarios can be explored for the basin. Part IV describes the process for building future flow scenarios for the Willamette River Basin using the inherent flexibilities in the existing legal infrastructure. Part V sets forth a set of preliminary conclusions and develops a set of research tasks that will drive the next stage of this work. Accomplishments: Evaluate a broad range of long-term scenarios for avoiding and/or adapting to potential changes in water availability: 1) over 4 years, 120+ person stakeholder mtg’s inform assumptions of 8 Research Team scenarios, 2) over 4 months, 20 person TAG defines assumptions of 2 (Extreme and Managed Case) scenarios

The Big Wood River Basin Alternative Futures Project is exploring the interactions between agriculture, urban land use practices, and recreational activities under future conditions of climate and water supply in the Big Wood Basin of central Idaho. To do accomplish this, the project is employing Envision, an agent-based modeling platform.

The Big Wood project began with informal discussions among water users in Idaho’s Snake River Basin about the impacts that future climate may have on seasonal water supplies. After continued conversations with regional stakeholders, the Big Wood Basin in central Idaho was identified as a pilot project to explore how climate and other drivers of change may influence water and other systems that are important to stakeholders within the basin.

Our approach is to work closely with stakeholders at each step of the process. This ensures that our research is delivered in an easily usable form for public and private decision makers. RECS meet with water managers and users to identify interest in participating in a CIRC knowledge-to-action network around changes to hydrological processes. RECS hosted a workshop with stakeholders and CIRC PIs that identified hydrological research priorities for the basin and a commitment to participate in the network. RECS will continue facilitating this network to refine research questions, study approach, and a timetable for delivery of climate adaptation services. Based on efforts last year in the Snake River Basin, CIRC has worked with local partners to develop the Big Wood Alternative Futures project. The Big Wood is a tributary of the Snake River in central Idaho and was identified as a pilot project to explore how climate and other drivers of change may influence water supply and timing in the region A) What difference did this project make? Shortterm: 1) Helped establish network around water planning in basin (Upper and Lower); 2) Injected climate into broader conversations about water availability and use e.g. Climate focus of this year’s Wood River Water Seminar; 3) Increased understanding of basin today and how it may be impacted by climate in the future Long term 4) Consideration of climate in longterm basin planning (managing demand/supply) B) What kinds of capacities were built? 1) Understanding of basin TODAY: i) “I had never thought about it that way but I guess we do have a water transfer in our basin” ii) “I didn’t think we actually had that much precipitation throughout the year” (comment aQer considering mountain snowpack) 2) Understandingvofvbasin in FUTURE: i) “We already have water problems, I hadn’t thought about what would happen if demand goes up”; C) What did we learn about coproduction of knowledge or one of its consttiuent components? 1) Geography matters! i) Very challenging to support a collaborative process from afar. ii) In Future: find some identifying local champion, or be ready to spend time/$); 2) Coproduction is a commitment between researchers and stakeholders: i) Does your team have the expertise/capacity to meet those commitments? Under capacity on hydrology. D) What changes in behavior, policy, and/or practice can we observe? 1) More basin discussion of water issues – because of us? 2) More discussion of managing demand through water efficiency for both Agriculture and Municipal AND increasing supply/storage

Sea level rise, increasing storminess, and accelerating development pressures are conspiring to leave coastal communities along the U.S. West Coast increasingly vulnerable to coastal change hazards and inundation. Along the coasts of Oregon and Washington, many beaches have not fully recovered from the major El Niño and moderate La Niña of the late 1990s, which produced coastal flooding and erosion not seen in some decades. Several Pacific Northwest communities remain at high risk of coastal inundation in ensuing winter seasons and at present local decision makers lack both the information and tools for an adaptive capacity to reduce their vulnerability, particularly in light of the uncertainty of climate change. It is within this context of uncertainty that the Envision Tillamook County Coastal Futures project hopes to help. Through its Envision Tillamook County Coastal Futures project, CIRC is helping Tillamook County, Oregon, stakeholders visualize how both climate change and local adaptation will affect their natural and human landscapes in the years to come. To accomplish this, the project’s researchers are modeling all 100 kilometers of Tillamook County’s coastline in Envision, a computer program developed by CIRC researcher John Bolte. Envision creates dynamic, geospatial maps that can model change—from population growth to rising sea levels—over landscapes. The project’s research objectives are as follows: 1) Build coastal ‘Knowledge to Action Networks' (KTANs) consisting of collaborative teams of stakeholders, researchers, and outreach specialists who will co-produce knowledge to inform climate-resilient strategies in Tillamook County, Oregon. 2) Develop an integrated methodology for projecting the evolving probability of coastal flooding and erosion, through time along the Pacific Northwest coast, explicitly accounting for climate controls on the various processes relevant to coastal hazards. 3) Develop the information and tools necessary to enable PNW stakeholders to envision future scenarios, assess impacts and associated evolving community and ecosystem vulnerability, and initiate adaptation strategies over the next several decades in the context of sea level rise and changing storminess. The project incorporates both coastal flooding and erosion probability and community resilience data.

Communications: CIRC’s communication effort has been has aimed to reach readers directly via our monthly newsletter, remain active and involved in social media, cooperate with our regional partners in the dissemination of stories about our projects, illuminate the complexities of climate science for a general and specialist readership, work with communications outlets at our affiliated universities, and find new outlets for the CIRC content.

see chapter: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/land-use-and-land-cover-change

Key regionally consequential risks in the Northwest include impacts of warming on watersheds where snowmelt is important, coastal consequences of sea level rise combined with other stressors, and the cumulative effects of fire, insects, and disease on forest ecosystems. (Section 1.2) This report focuses on the major drivers of regional climate change and impacts on systems of high regional and local importance. Three key issues of concern were identified through a qualitative risk assessment that evaluated the relative likelihood and consequences of climate change impacts for the region’s economy, infrastructure, natural systems, and human health. These are: impacts of warming on snow accumulation and melt and their effects on regional hydrology and related systems; coastal consequences of sea level rise combined with other drivers of change, including river flooding, coastal storms and changes in the coastal ocean, and the cumulative effects of climate change on fire, insects, and tree diseases in forest ecosystems. In addition to these three risk areas, this report focuses on three climate-sensitive sectors of regional importance: agriculture, human health, and NW tribes. Regionally-identified risks are complemented with discussion of locally-specific risks and vulnerabilities. National and Regional Climate Assessments: PI Philip Mote was substantially involved as a member of the National Climate Assessment Development and Advisory Committee, co-lead author of the Northwest chapter, and co-editor of a 220-page regional report published by Island Press.Project Accomplishments:•Publication of chapter covering climate change impacts and the Northwest for “The Third National Climate Assessment”•Publication of “Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities.”•Regional report was created in conjunction with the University of Washington’s Climate Impacts Group (CIG). Co-production of effort helped strengthen bonds between CIRC and CIG.•Publication of reports have become standard reference material for adaptation efforts in the region.• Helped raise local awareness of climate change issues via presses releases, talks, and interviews surrounding the release of National Climate Assessment

FINAL REPORT: Climate Change in the Northwest Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities. http://occri.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/ClimateChangeInTheNorthwest.pdf National and Regional Climate Assessments: PI Philip Mote was substantially involved as a member of the National Climate Assessment Development and Advisory Committee, co-lead author of the Northwest chapter, and co-editor of a 220-page regional report published by Island Press.Project Accomplishments:•Publication of chapter covering climate change impacts and the Northwest for “The Third National Climate Assessment”•Publication of “Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities.”•Regional report was created in conjunction with the University of Washington’s Climate Impacts Group (CIG). Co-production of effort helped strengthen bonds between CIRC and CIG.•Publication of reports have become standard reference material for adaptation efforts in the region.• Helped raise local awareness of climate change issues via presses releases, talks, and interviews surrounding the release of National Climate Assessment

Oregon, and Seattle, Washington), CNAP (San Francisco, California), SECC (Tampa Bay Water, Florida), and CCRUN (New York City, New York). PUMA Modeling for Portland Water Bureau and Seattle Public Utilities: CIRC participated in the national (PUMA) project working with two PUMA utilities in the Northwest, the Portland Water Bureau and Seattle Public Utilities and Portland Water Bureau, the Northwest’s two largest water providers. CIRC provided the utilities with tailored statistical downscaling for their watersheds, and aided the utilities’ in-house capacity to model their watersheds to respond to projected future conditions of climate change and its impacts, including: changes in the timing of fall rains; changes from a snow-dominated to water-dominated watershed, in case of the Seattle Public Utilities; issues surrounding turbidity, and issues surrounding water demand under conditions of water scarcity.Project Accomplishments:•Aided the Northwest region’s two largest Public Utilities, Seattle Public Utilities and Portland Water Bureau, in modeling their watersheds in an effort to understand and adapt to climate change impacts on their customers •Publication of “Actionable Science in Practice: Co-producing Climate Change Information for Water Utility Vulnerability Assessment. Final Report of the Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) Project,” the publication of which is expected to help similar adaptation efforts.•Gained significant goodwill and interest in the region via the success of this project.•Both Seattle Public Utilities and Portland Water Bureau are developing adaptation strategies based on CIRC’s input.

Also:What difference did this project make/ capacity did it build? For whom?For SPU:- boosted their ability to do in-house assessment- improved connections to Seattle City Light- led to internal monthly technical reading groupFor PWB:- boosted their ability to do in-house assessment- improved connections to OCCRI

What did we learn about coproduction of knowledge or one of its constituent components? Is coproduction a continuous or binary phenomenon?• many iterations to frame the question & shape the answer to be meaningful - e.g., “will the return of fall rains change?”• there are degrees of co-production

What changes in behavior, policy, and/or practice can we observe?• monthly tech paper discussion group at SPU

This effort is funded primarily by the National Integrated Drought Information System. CIRC Principal Investigator Dennis Lettenmaier/Bart Nijjsen has extended the University of Washington drought monitoring and prediction system for Washington state to the entire Pacific Northwest plus California. This capability was very useful during the 2013-15 drought(s) that affected California and the Pacific Northwest. As part of an outreach effort during the 2014 drought, CIRC and the Oregon Climate Service provided a series of updates on precipitation conditions in the Northwest to regional resource managers and policy makers. In process of developing Drought Early Warning System (DEWs) for the Northwest working with stakeholders across the region and NIDIS.

To help understand hydrologic changes that can be expected with summer and winter warming, CIRC is conducting a subbasin-scale hydrologic sensitivity analysis over the eight digit Hydrologic Unit Code (cataloging unit) subbasins within the Columbia River basin and adjacent coastal drainages. We have identified the cataloging units within the region, and equivalent sub-basins within the Canadian portion of the Columbia River basin and are conducting sensitivity analyses similar to and expanding upon those reported in Vano et al. (2012) and Das et al. (2011) using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model applied at 1/16th degree latitude and longitude resolution. As the project progresses, we will include additional models that are hydrologically credible in the analysis. Our early results have allowed us to categorize subbasins with similar winter and summer sensitivities and changes in seasonality. These variations and differences have been shared with the resource management community at recent conferences and will be presented in a paper that is currently in progress

This project used a coupled, VIC-MODFLOW framework for representing dynamic interactions between unsaturated and saturated sub-surface zones. This was a physically-distributed, process-based simulation tool to partition runoff, baseflow, reach gain/loss, and recharge in the Snake River Basin. Both hydrologic models were calibrated based on the available long-term historical streamflow and groundwater data. In order to develop and capture the hydrology of the basin, the project focused on the Eastern Snake River Plain Aquifer and Henry’s Fork sub basin regions, which is the headwater catchment of the Snake River Basin. Integrated model simulation was conducted for 6 years from 1980 to 1985. This was extended for future climate change scenarios to study the climate change impact on the water table, reach gain and recharge. This integrated the platform for the water resources assessment of the system by linking surface and subsurface fluxes into systems modeling that were tested using downscaled climate model information.

The role of land-use, land-cover (LULC) change has been mostly ignored from the climate models used in past Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments of climate projections. This research was conducted using the state of the art Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model 3.4 (WRF-ARW). The WRF-ARW is an atmospheric model combined with a land surface model (LSM) and allows for a diverse choice of physics parameterizations. Latent, sensible and ground heat fluxes were examined from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) driven runs, both past (1992-1996) and future (2040-2070) to identify the changes in the partitioning of the fluxes in a future climate. The study revealed irrigation induced cooling via evaporation caused an average decrease of 0.8°C to the average growing season (April-October) 2-m temperature, a decrease of up to 90 meters of the average growing season planetary boundary layer height and increase of 2.0°C to the average growing season 2-m dewpoint over the cropland (irrigated) grid-cells. The average latent heat over the growing season increased 47 W m -2. The average growing season sensible heat decreased 41 W m-2, while the ground heat did not substantially change at only a net increase of 0.2 W m-2. The average growing season net radiation increased 5.7 W m-2. Further research is in progress to understand the feedback effects due to irrigation induced-cooling on atmospheric properties.

In late 2013, with support from Oregon State University Extension Service, CIRC partnered with Oregon Sea Grant and the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development on the North Coast Climate Adaptation. Working with federal, state and local decision makers, the project’s objective is to prioritize the 11 climate risks identified in the Oregon Adaptation Framework for the northern Oregon Coast. The project is employing the collective knowledge of community stakeholders, landscape managers, and university researchers to identify priority climate risks for the North Coast and to management responses that will build resilience to climate change

The partnership with Oregon State University Extension Service and Oregon Sea Grant are critical to CIRC’s efforts to develop user-driven research. The partnership has served a valuable role in connecting to extension’s stakeholders through the support of a Regional Extension Climate Specialist.

The Specialist, John Stevenson, supports several projects including the Big Wood Alternative Futures, Envision Tillamook County Coastal Futures, Willamette 2100, and the North Coast Alignment Project.

CIRC has leveraged these projects to evaluate what strategies extension clientele can use to adapt to future climate conditions that will impact agriculture, forestry, and other natural resources important to rural economies.

The CIRC-Extension partnership has also worked to develop climate science training for extension professionals and clientele through in-service trainings, webinars, and curriculum for Master Naturalist training modules. Most recently, CIRC has partnered with the Climate Science Initiative (CSI) led by the Association of Natural Resource Extension Professionals (ANREP) to support national climate literacy among extension professionals.

In October 2013, CSI held the first National Extension Climate Science Conference, which provided participants with three days of In-Service training on topics ranging from climate science, climate tools and resources, and climate communication. Extension activities across CIRC projects: Big Alternative Futures, Tillamook Coastal Futures, North Coast Alignment Project, US Forest Service Adaptation Partnerships, Coping with Drought, AgClimate.net, Association of Natural Resource Extension Professionals (ANREP) Climate Science Initiative

Through the Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership and the Blue Mountains Adaptation Partnership CIRC and the USFS Pacific Northwest Research Station developed a curriculum regarding climate adaptation best practices for public land managers in the Pacific Northwest (Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and western Montana). The project had two main objectives: (1) increase the institutional capacity of Pacific Northwest public land managers to adapt current management practices to regional climate change and (2) transfer knowledge gained from successful partnerships to a wider audience so that others can learn from these efforts. Drafted two climate vulnerability assessments and adaptation reports for two Northwest regions: the Blue Mountains and the Northwest Rockies.Project Accomplishments:•Partners included numerous local governments, non-governmental organizations, state and federal agencies, businesses. (A more exact list can be found below in the Partners section of this report.)•Created a network of trained individuals at state and federal agencies who can now go on to provide adaptation training and information to others in their own and other organizations,•Created venues for ongoing networking and communicating with those individuals (e.g., webinars, additional training, websites, etc.),•Compiled a set of “best practices” for implementing climate adaptation efforts in state and federal agencies in the Northwest.•Publication of “Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Blue Mountains Region (final report),” a comprehensive Assessment and Adaptation Plan for the Oregon and Washington’s Blue Mountains• Soon to be Published, “Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Northwest Rockies (final report),”

Helping stakeholders better to use climate information including forecasts(particularly for drought) in the Great Basin LCC region (helping NW CSC with stakeholder engagement in this region)

The Oregon Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan (NHMP) identifies and prioritizes potential actions throughout Oregon that would reduce our vulnerability to natural hazards. In addition, the plan satisfies the requirements of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to ensure that Oregon is eligible to receive hazard mitigation and disaster assistance funds from the federal government. The current version of plan was approved on March 5, 2012, and this update will be adopted in early 2015.

CIRC worked with the Cities of Eugene and Springfield, Oregon, and the Oregon Partnership for Disaster Resilience at the University of Oregon to develop a hazard and climate vulnerability assessment process for the two Oregon cities. The work was done as part of an update to the two cities’ natural hazard mitigation plans and incorporated future climate change impacts scenarios. Climate scenarios used were for 2030 and 2060. Researchers collected sector descriptions, assessments of adaptive capacity, critical vulnerabilities, hazard specific sensitivities, and key sector and service interdependencies rated at low, medium, or high with associated reisks. Over 150 city managers and public sector works across 12 sectors were interviewed for their expert views and judgements on key priorities, sectors including: Drinking wate, Health Care and Public Health, Electricity, Transportation, Food, Housing, Communication, Stormwater, Wastewater, Natural Systems, Public Safety. Scores were created for each sector and also system-wide scores to allo comparability that then were turned into narratives for discussion. Work culminated in a June 2014 summit to finalize the climate vulnerability assessment report.

Guided by this Climate Action Plan, Portland and Multnomah County will carry out policies and programs to minimize household, business and government emissions and prepare for the coming environmental and economic challenges. These efforts will help the entire community thrive now and in the future.

CIRC assisted Benton County in developing its climate adaptation plan by (1) providing climate impacts information pertinent to the county; (2) co-creating a climate health assessment tool used to prioritize risks; and (3) providing on-going guidance in the development of a framework for public health and climate change monitoring in Benton County. Key climate impacts: heat, wildfire, precipitation and flooding. Key health-climate risks: weather fatalities, chronic diseases, communicable diseases, respiratory diseases, waterborne/foodborne, diarrheal disease, vectorborne disease, food access/quality, air quality, vulnerable populations e.g homeless, low income, young, elderly. The adaptation project concluded its first phase of planning by participating in a department-wide presentation to Benton County Commissioners June 2014. Attending were representatives from the Oregon Health Authority and the US Centers for Disease Control’s Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) program of which Benton County is one of 24 showcase counties. The County received recognition from the CDC as a leader in local climate and health adaptation planning including for collaboration with Oregon State University and CIRC. In July 2014, The Corvallis Gazette-Times carried a front-page top-fold article on the effort.

This research project documented the responses of Native American cultural traditions to climate change in the Northwest United States. There are aspects of tribal culture, such as songs, stories, prayers, and dances that include fish, wildlife, or plants as central images or main symbolic figures, and therefore may be affected by environmentally driven changes. The intimate connections that tribes have maintained with the natural environment are more spiritually rich and complex than non-°©‐Native consumptive views of natural resources. Our study involved three Northwest tribes, after careful consideration of tribes' size, level of cultural activity, strength of ties to the environment, and connection to culturally significant and aboriginal geographic regions. The information was collected through interviews with tribal elders and individuals with substantial cultural expertise. We found, in addition to changes in specific cultural practices, a profound disruption to identity connected with (a) changes in seasonality, disturbing the sense of natural time; and (b) a sense that wisdom passed down through generations is no longer a sound basis for which decisions are made.

Coordinating projects at the local level, state level, regional level, and national level to show how climate data can support public health planning.

Professionals across the United States are working to prepare for the impacts of climate change and make their communities, regions, states, and the country more resilient to those changes. For each, the story is different but similar. These individuals realize that climate change is one of the most critical issues of our time and that it will affect many aspects of their jobs and our communities. They work within their sector and across sectors. They focus on climate science, public health, natural resources, governance, urban planning, transportation, forestry, water resources and more. They realize that while their individual efforts can make a difference, they cannot do it alone. They look for a place to find and share information, enhance promising practices, and collaborate on building a healthy and vibrant future.

TRIG is engaging agencies, community based organizations, and researchers to identify and address the disproportionate impacts of climate change on vulnerable populations. TRIG is working with business leaders to enhance understanding of the impacts of climate change on Oregon's businesses and strategies for building resilience. Creating a network of communities and jurisdictions in the Willamette Valley interested in advancing community resilience to climate change and other natural disasters and economic impacts

CISA team members are leading the NIDIS Carolinas DEWS pilot program effort to improve monitoring and reporting of drought impacts through citizen science. Using tools developed by the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow (CoCoRaHS) network, volunteers submit regular condition monitoring reports to demonstrate how precipitation, or a lack thereof, has impacted local communities and ecosystems. Interviews with drought decision makers seek to understand the utility of the report information for drought early warning. Interaction and feedback from volunteer observers seeks to build upon best practices for drought impacts reporting through citizen science.

While many drought indices and indicators exist (focusing on, for example, agriculture or reservoir management), little attention has been given to coastal ecological resources. This project seeks to improve understanding of coastal resources that are adapted to or dependent upon particular spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation, salinity or streamflow to determine stress caused by drought.

This project will examine historic precipitation data to 1) assess the frequency, duration, magnitude and spatial extent of historic droughts and 2) to organize this information such that it can be used as a benchmark to approximate how frequently (in years) droughts tend to occur, how long (in years) they tend to last and how severe a current drought is relative to historic droughts.

This project seeks to improve understanding of how a changing climate will affect fishing communities' abilities to maintain marine fisheries and the local economies historically dependent upon them. It also investigates the role of a structure dialogue and participatory modeling process to support decision makers in fishing communities addressing vulnerabilities, consequences and adaptation strategies in the context of climate stressors. At the end of the project, the methodology will have been demonstrated in three diverse fishing communities: South Thomaston, ME; Wellfleet, MA; and Beaufort County, SC.

The goal of this project was to write a plan for priority actions to update existing planning processes (e.g., Comprehensive Plan) that encourage climate resilience in Beaufort County, SC. This has been accomplished through stakeholder interviews and workshops using the Vulnerability and Consequences Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS) process.

Stakeholders in the city of Beaufort and town of Port Royal, SC have formed a task force to address the area’s vulnerability to sea level rise and develop adaptation strategies to address potential impacts. There are thirteen members on this task force, including the mayor of Beaufort and planning administrator for Port Royal, which has met regularly (monthly or bi-monthly) since its first meeting in December 2014. In spring 2015, the task force presented its mission statement and recommendations to Beaufort City Council and Port Royal Town Council. Both councils encouraged the task force to continue its work.

CISA is collaborating with the Southeast Regional Climate Center (SERCC) to investigate linkages between climate and human health, with respect to heat stress vulnerability and waterborne disease. This project has included the development of a climate-public health toolbox which integrates weather and climate data with the NC Disease Event Tracking and Epidemiologic Collection Tool (NC DETECT) and geographic information in order to identify climate-public health vulnerabilities across different regions (e.g., coastal plan, Piedmont, mountains) and populations (e.g., rural vs. urban).

World-wide occurrence of illness caused by species of Vibrio have increased by 40% during the past 10 years. The CDC reports that infection rates in the U.S. since 2000 for Vibrio parahaemolyticus and Vibrio vulnificus have increased while rates for other major food-borne pathogens have decreased. The spread of Vibrio is thought to be directly related to climate change as oceanic circulation patterns may result in longer-term transport of warmer waters into colder climate regions, resulting in the introduction of new strains of Vibrio such as V. parahaemolyticus. It is also thought that increased global temperatures will increase the growing seasons for many Vibrio into months of the year when shellfish harvesting practices presumed these species were not present. This may result in increased exposure to shellfish consumers in coastal regions throughout the U.S., including the Southeast. This project monitored and assessed the potential for increased exposure to Vibrio bacterial hazards in the southeastern US coastal water under changing salinity trends. We collaborated with NOAA's Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomolecular Research (CCEHBR) at the Hollings Marine Lab (Charleston, SC) and the South Carolina state shellfish regulatory office. We studied the Winyah Bay estuary in South Carolina which is vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise associated with climate change. Ongling work involves analyzing the collected Vibrio samples for virulence. This is a potentially more useful metric because it would be a better indicator to estimate actual risk of infection.

Natural ecosystems, agriculture, and human communities along the lower coastal plain of North Carolina are exceptionally vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR). Changes in hydrology associated with SLR are a key driver and harbinger of change in coastal ecosystem function, but are poorly quantified. Further, human alteration of coastal shorelines has the potential to accelerate ecosystem transition due to SLR. This project will quantify the carbon (C) contained in vegetation and soils of the predominant ecosystems that occur at ARNWR and quantify thresholds of salinity and hydro-period (number of days per year the soil is flooded) resulting in transition from one ecosystem type to another. Focus is being placed on the effects of historical ditching and drainage on soil water dynamics and salinity, quantifying the role of extreme events such as flood tides and hurricanes. The information gathered will be combined with a GIS-remote sensing analysis of ecosystem vulnerability (to transition) across the Refuge, which will allow managers to implement mitigation procedures (e.g. planting flood tolerant tree species) or adapt (e.g. start managing for future conditions of wildlife habitat). In addition, the project team hosted a public outreach event at ARNWR headquarters (Roanoke Island) to discuss the science of the CISA/Refuge project to the public and solicit input from local constituents.

We use EPA’s BASINS Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) model to address hydroclimatological variability in the Winyah Bay watershed. We have calibrated HSPF simulation models for the Yadkin Pee-Dee (from the NC mountains to the SC coast), Waccamaw, and Black Rivers at the 8-digit HUC level so that local variability within each watershed can be adequately addressed.

This project is intended to identify and examine a range of possible changes in discharge in the Edisto River between now and 2030. This information will be useful for coastal resource managers responsible for monitoring river flow and managing natural communities and ecosystems. Specifically, there is considerable interest in forecasting future river discharge levels in response to climate change and their downstream effects on blue crabs. Streamflow projections will be used as input for an individual-based blue crab model in order to forecast future landings for the South Carolina blue crab fishery. This model was developed by Michael Childress (Clemson University) whose work is part of the NIDIS Carolinas DEWS pilot program.

Capturing the intensity and return period of extreme rainfall events in the historic record and projecting them into the future would benefit managing, planning and designing infrastructure. Building off of work conducted to inform the Low Impact Development in Coastal South Carolina: Planning and Design Guide, CISA team members assessed the performance of nested regional climate models in simulating historic extreme rainfall events and investigated potential future changes in rainfall patterns.

CISA’s Coastal Climate program was established as the Carolinas Coastal Climate Outreach Initiative (CCCOI) in 2007. Currently led by CISA PI Elizabeth Fly, this program was designed to strengthen collaboration between CISA and the Sea Grant programs in North and South Carolina and to provide coastal stakeholders with a trusted source of climate information and products. In collaboration with Jessica Whitehead, the NC Sea Grant Coastal Hazards Extension Specialist, Fly assists coastal communities in evaluating climate-related concerns, assessing potential vulnerabilities to climate-related impacts, and incorporating climate information into planning and decision-making processes. The primary goals of the CCCOI are to:• Develop the capacity of NC and SC Sea Grant to inform and educate coastal decision-makers of the implications of climate variability and change for major coastal issues.• Provide tailored, decision-relevant information on (a) the implications of climate variability and change and (b) adaptation strategies that increase resilience to those impacts to coastal decision-makers, ranging from residents to government officials to business people. • Increase the capacity of the Sea Grant network, on a regional and national scale, to target and support relevant research and deliver directed outreach programs on the impacts of climate variability, climate change, and adaptation strategies for coastal stakeholders.

Initiated by NOAA’s Southeast and Caribbean Regional Team (SECART) and Sea Grant programs in the region, the Southeast and Caribbean Climate Community of Practice (CCoP) was created in 2010 as a response to the growing need for climate extension professionals bridging the gap between science and decision makers. The CCoP, which includes North and South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, is comprised of individuals from local, state and federal government, academia, non-profit and private sector organizations. The CCoP’s mission is to provide a forum for sharing lessons learned and best practices related to climate communication and adaptation. The CCoP also works to provide education and networking opportunities to increase their members’ knowledge and awareness of climate science. Brennan and Fly serve as co-chairs for the CCoP.

Supporting the development of adaptive capacity to address current climate variability and projected climate change is a crosscutting element of CISA’s efforts. CISA’s research and engagement efforts strive to: increase regional understanding of climate variability and change, impacts and vulnerabilities; identify climate-related data, analysis, and management needs; promote networks for sharing climate and adaptation information and expertise; develop analytical approaches and tools to aid in decision making; and improve the communication of climate risks and uncertainties. As adaption needs to fit within local decision contexts, CISA also works to foster integration of local knowledge of communities and systems with more generalized scientific findings.

VCAPS is an analytical-deliberative dialogue process designed to help communities work with scientists to think through the potential impacts of climate change on their communities and to identify vulnerabilities and management options. It serves as a basis for building shared understanding the implications of climate variability and change and opportunities for adaptation. CISA has been involved in projects in several communities in the Carolinas (Sullivan's Island, McClellanville and Beaufort County, SC; Plymouth, Nags Head and Hyde County, NC). SERI and other project partners have used the VCAPS process with communities in Georgia, Massachusetts, Maine, and Alabama. Information about the process and individual projects are available on the VCAPS website: http://www.vcapsforplanning.org/index.html.

In collaboration with utility representatives, CISA team members are assessing the raw water supply of a North Carolina utility to determine its vulnerability to changing climatic conditions. The project is informed by the “Decision Scaling” approach where focus is placed on modeling a system’s response to climate in order to understand its vulnerability, rather than starting with a top-down impact assessment based on climate change projections produced from GCMs.

The purpose of this project is to test how sensitive drought estimates are to the input data set specifically by comparing drought indices derived from point-based inputs from surface gauge networks and drought products based on gridded inputs including multi-sensor precipitation estimates (MPE) and gridded temperature products. The project compared the MPE-based Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) with other monitoring tools, including the DDIT, and evaluated the MPE-based SPI for application in the Carolinas. Findings indicated that the MPE-based SPI provides similar information to independently-generated and station-based SPI. However, there are nuances in the spatial extent and variability of drought severity indicated by the different tools, suggesting that operational use might vary depending on needs for more localized or regional detail.

CISA researchers developed the Dynamic Drought Index Tools (DDIT) in response to drought decision makers’ requests for an interactive tool that allows drought monitoring with user control of index, time frame, and spatial aggregation unit. The tool is maintained by the SC DNR and currently provides the ability to examine historical droughts up to 2009. The Northeast Regional Climate Center continues work to implement a near-real time, grid-based version of the DDIT, for access through their ACIS data with the intent to cover eighteen states in the eastern United States.

This project was initiated in February 2014 when the members of the City of Folly Beach, SC, Planning Commission contacted CISA’s coastal climate extension specialist, Fly. Folly Beach is a small barrier island city just outside of Charleston, SC, that experiences chronic beach erosion issues due to the placement of jetties in the Charleston harbor. Folly Beach is typically renourished every 5-7 years. The city wishes to become more knowledgeable on the state of their beach erosion and the various options available for erosion control, as well as address longer-term climate issues in both their Beachfront Management Plan and Comprehensive Plan (LCBMP) updates.

Combining four models — climate change, atmospheric chemistry transport models, emissions and health impact assessment — researchers estimated current associations between ozone levels and respiratory and cardiovascular morbidity and projected ozone-related morbidity for North Carolina in 2050. This study leveraged existing data resources from the North Carolina Disease Event Tracking and Epidemiologic Collection Tool (NC DETECT) surveillance system and Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeled ozone concentration grids previously developed by atmospheric modelers at the UNC Institute of the Environment. The study produced estimates of climate change-related health impacts for the percent increase and number of ozone-related cardiopulmonary ED visits in North Carolina for 2050, accounting for population growth and changes in age structure. A subset of estimates for children and the elderly were also be developed.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) plays a critical role in helping land, water, and coastal managers prepare for and respond to diverse weather- and climate-driven extreme events. Challenges to accessing, interpreting, and disseminating diverse climate and weather (C&W) information, however, limit FEMA’s use of this information, which can impede pre-positioning resources in high-risk areas, delay advanced warnings, and spur misunderstanding. Strategic partnerships that link information producers and consumers and provide opportunities for co-developing useful C&W information can help agencies like FEMA better fulfill their mandate to safeguard life and property. We propose a climate services case study that examines the process of developing strategic partnerships, communication strategies, and relevant C&W information to support FEMA’s hazards monitoring efforts in Arizona, Nevada, and California. This study examines the end-to-end process of decision support and will be conducted within a framework advocated by the National Research Council. This incudes: (1) assessing FEMA’s C&W information needs and gaps; (2) co-producing a decision support tool; and (3) measuring impacts, successes, and limitations of the decision-support tool, engagement process, and partnership. The objectives are to better understand how to provide climate services and develop strategies that seamlessly transition from research to operations, while assessing the role of ‘boundary organizations’ (e.g. RISAs) in developing and mediating partnerships that advance climate services and long-term adaptation efforts. This project is a collaboration between the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), the western regional headquarters of the NWS, and FEMA.

Dust storms in the Southwest US and Northern Mexico continue to be a serious health and safety issue. In our continued effort to locate the sources of dust that has impacted those in southwestern NM, Northwestern Chihuahua, and west Texas, we continued surveillance of dust storms and determined the latitude and longitude of these. In an effort to better understand the characteristics of the land surface from where the dust emission occurs, we have identified in excess of 2,000 locations responsible for a dust plume as seen in satellite imagery and are in the process of understanding the state of the land surface at those locations. During this year we have started work to construct a synoptic climatology of these dust storms in order to increase our ability to forecast these events.

The goal of this project is to work with the Hopi Tribe's Department of Natural Resources (HDNR) to develop a set of drought indicators and approaches for collecting, analyzing, and utilizing the data needed to support each indicator. In addition to indicators that rely on available temperature and precipitation data, we hope to develop a complementary suite of indicators that utilizes drought impacts information the HDNR has begun to collect. The integrated suite of indicators and processes to support monitoring them will: 1) provide the foundation for revisions to the Hopi Tribe's current drought management and response plan, 2) result in a new stream of locally-derived data and information that could provide input to national drought products like the US Drought Monitor, and 3) be the backbone of a system that would provide local, regional, and national decision makers better insight into developing drought conditions before an event reaches critical levels.

Arizonans have long dealt with high temperatures and limited water resources, and climate change may increase the magnitudes of these challenges by causing increases in heat and the severity and frequency of droughts. Understanding how the public views climate issues is of considerable interest to a wide range of people, including policy makers, resource managers, health officials, researchers, educators, and others. Although many national surveys have described climate change attitudes, these studies have interviewed only small samples of Arizona residents and have yet to explore in depth the views of state residents. This report summarizes the results of a survey of public opinion that was commissioned by the University of Arizona and Stanford University to provide a better understanding of how the Arizona public views this issue. For CLIMAS, the results help guide our mission of serving the Southwest and its residents through our research and outreach.

The project is designed to assist regional urban network managers of the Western Adaptation Alliance (WAA) in communicating with key constituencies in their communities to broaden support for action on climate adaptation, and to improve preparedness. Specifically, this involves (a) inventorying major extreme events of five key climate impacts—temperature extremes, stormwater/floods, drought, fire, and wind—for each WAA city and across the region, (b) recording specific actions taken following those events, (c) developing narratives for each class of impact, and (d) creating a toolkit for the highest priority impact—extreme heat events.

Many communities are already vulnerable to extreme events, and many of these vulnerabilities will increase with climate change. Identifying and better understanding critical thresholds for extreme events is key to developing effective community responses to climate change. In this project we will test a methodology for using a participatory process to define critical thresholds for extreme events, and use these thresholds to customize climate projections to community- ‐specific needs. This project brings together Adaptation International, CLIMAS and SCIPP, two of NOAA’s Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessment (RISA) programs, ATMOS Research, and ISET International to address this critical need.

Climate in Context is an edited volume describing the development and implementation of the NOAA RISA program, an innovative program to research and develop experimental region-based climate services. The book covers scholarly contributions on use-inspired research in five key areas, including understanding the context of working with stakeholders and decision makers, understanding risk-based climate applications, supporting the development of knowledge networks, innovating regional climate services, and advancing science policy. The book editors are Adam Parris, Gregg Garfin, Kirstin Dow, Ryan Meyer, and Sarah Close. The book will be published by Wiley & Sons; the expected date of publication is January 2016.

The goal of this project is to define the ecosystem water needs of the upper Gila River in New Mexico and to evaluate the probable ecological impacts of a diversion proposed under the Arizona Water Settlements Act, New Mexico Unit (NM Unit), considering existing conditions and changing climate. The CLIMAS portion of this project will develop and evaluate climate and hydrological change projections needed by project ecologists, biologists, and hydrologists to evaluate potential impacts of change on hydrological and ecological processes. The research was completed in July 2014, with publication of a report (described below). However, because the research and report are part of ongoing New Mexico policy discussions, there is need for follow up: (a) responses to critique; (b) efforts to publish in a peer-reviewed journal.

The Colorado River Basin Supply and Demand Study, conducted by the Bureau of Reclamation, was an unprecedented attempt to bring together a variety of experts and stakeholders from the watershed to address the current imbalance between supply and demand from 2012 through 2060. The Basin Study is also the largest scenario-planning project to ever be conducted by the Bureau of Reclamation. While most scenarios are either an expert (or “judgment driven”) scenario model or a stakeholder-defined scenario, the Basin Study incorporated aspects from both of these models, creating a collaborative model. We hypothesize that this collaborative scenario planning process made it easier for stakeholders to find common ground on pathways to address common challenges, and that it fostered the use of climate change information in decision making. This project aims to evaluate the aforementioned hypotheses, through (a) critical evaluation of the Basin Study Scenario Planning activity and Basin Study participant responses to interview questions.

This project connects two RISA programs, the Western Water Assessment (WWA) and Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), with regional conservation planners and decision-makers, in order to improve climate adaptation planning and implementation by land managers in the American Southwest. A key challenge is to bring climate knowledge to bear on habitat and species conservation efforts underway in the region, and to move conservation projects beyond vulnerability assessments to adaptation planning and implementation. This project is intended to advance four goals: 1) expand translational science capacity in the region to support adaptation; 2) improve regional climate-sensitive conservation decision-making; 3) disseminate climate knowledge through conservation networks in the region; and 4) develop both a comprehensive evaluation of the project and a training curriculum for future personnel intending to engage in this type of work. The project will prototype and develop a model for expanding the translational climate science capacity needed to move ecosystem management beyond vulnerability assessments and into on-the-ground decision-making for adaptation to climate variability and change.

This project examines the impacts of drought and climate change on climate sensitive sectors in the Southwest, focusing on agriculture as well as outdoor recreation and tourism. In response to frequent stakeholder requests, the project examines how water transfers would affect the local economies or rural, water-exporting communities. The project examines how drought and climate change would affect acquisition of water for environmental restoration. It also considers how combining agronomic information with seasonal weather forecasts can assist the use of option contracts to reduce water supply risks.

This project involves economic evaluations of the effects of actual and proposed climate change mitigation policies. It compares and contrasts state energy and carbon emission intensity and climate mitigation policies, seeking to examine how state resource endowments affect policy development and resource use. It also examines strategies to sequester carbon or reduce carbon emissions.

This project examines the role of water management information and irrigation technologies in agricultural adaptation to climate variability and change in the 17 westernmost US states. Issues addressed include: (a) farmer demand for different sources of public and private water management information, (b) adoption of scientific methods and use of electronic media to schedule irrigation, (c) how climate affects choice of irrigation technologies. The project conducts statistical analysis to examine how factors such as farm size, water costs, and drought affect demand for water management information. For Arizona specifically the project examines trends in trends in agricultural water management, investments in irrigation improvements, and water productivity (e.g., agricultural output per unit of water applied, or “crop per drop”).

The Southwest Climate Outlook (SWCO) summarizes climate and weather information from disparate sources in nonscientific language, providing more than 1,600 people with timely climate-related information. Since SWCO's inception in 2002, stemming from the END InSight project, the publication has evolved into a tool for two-way communication with stakeholders and a platform for responding to needs throughout the region.

This project examines potential climate change and variability adaptation strategies related to water and energy in the Colorado River and Rio Grande Basins, including northwestern Mexico. Researchers are investigating how climate influences the market price of water and are developing a menu of water and energy supply reliability tools and guidelines for using these tools to enhance supply reliability.

Persistent drought and climate change affect water and energy costs, and hence choices made by farms, cities and industrial water and energy users, as well as energy and water providers’ operations. Increased temperatures will increase summer power demand in the Southwest due to higher energy requirements for indoor cooling, agricultural irrigation, and urban outdoor water use. Multi-decade drought will reduce hydropower generation. Water and power costs are likely to increase, leading to increased financial stress for households and businesses, and resource management challenges in the water and energy sectors. This research investigates new methods for anticipating and adapting to climate impacts in the water and electricity urban supply sectors, and for providing water for critical habitat needs.

Climate change and variability can strongly control the population dynamics of disease vectors such as mosquitoes, altering their location and seasonality and possibly increasing the risk of disease transmission to humans. This project develops and implements a climate-based Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model (DyMSiM) to understand and project climate effects on mosquito population dynamics and associated implications for public health, developing results that will help climate-health scientists and public health decision makers better understand and project the role of climate in actual disease cases.

University of Arizona Cooperative Extension and the National Weather Service-Tucson have developed a working group focused on engaging the agricultural community of Southeast Arizona. The working group is focused on assessing information needs, providing training opportunities and technical support as well as conducting applied research and developing new and enhanced decision support tools. Main activities have included several training and needs assessment workshops, the development and maintenance of a listserv with over 40 subscribers and the development of new NWS forecast information visualizations and interfaces focused on frost and freezing events.

Drought is a complex phenomenon that can vary widely over space to due to precipitation patterns and in time due to lagging impacts in slowly varying systems. These factors are magnified in the semi-arid Southwest U.S. where extreme interannual climate variability, topography, and highly localized precipitation patterns (e.g. monsoon season thunderstorms) create highly varying hydroclimatic patterns in both space and time and subsequent drought impacts. Current climate monitoring networks across Arizona and New Mexico struggle to capture this variability and accurately portray potential drought conditions.

Complementary datasets, like remote sensing ‘greenness’, used in conjunction with existing climate data offer the potential to monitor drought conditions across large landscapes with sparse monitoring networks. Several efforts including online geovisualization tools to access raw normalized-difference vegetation index (NDVI or greenness) data and more formalized operational remote-sensing based operational drought monitoring tools like VegDRI have been developed over the past decade. A new effort supported by a recent NOAA-SARP/NIDIS grant spurred the development of tool called ‘DroughtView’ which takes a slightly different approach in combining cutting edge online geovisualization tools with derived remote sensing products targeting at detecting drought conditions. DroughtView builds on the success of a precursor effort called RangeView that was developed with the guidance of agriculturists and resource managers with a need for environmental monitoring data. The tools in DroughtView are currently being used to monitor biweekly changes in land surface greenness conditions as a proxy for drought impacts at very fine spatial scales across the Southwest U.S.

The Hopi Tribe and Navajo Nation have been experiencing widespread and persistent drought conditions for more than a decade. Drought has impacted vegetation and local water resources in ways that threaten agricultural systems and ecosystems that are critical to supporting the Hopi and Navajo people. Limited hydroclimatological and ecological monitoring across the region has made it difficult to assess current drought impacts and anticipate future impacts. By working with Navajo and Hopi resource managers to develop better drought monitoring tools and tactics we will help these two communities reduce their vulnerability to drought, cope with unavoidable drought impacts, and plan for long-term sustainability in the region.

El Niño, the monsoon, increasing temperatures, and dwindling reservoir storage are just a few of the climate-related issues that periodically punctuate the news cycle in the Southwest. CLIMAS scientists discuss these issues in monthly climate podcasts and special podcast series. The podcasts synthesize information from disparate sources that often do not have a Southwest bent, translating the national and global discussions into what it means for the Southwest. The podcasts also add insight to the discussions by bringing in latest climate science, covering climate-related topics with nuance but not shrouded in technical jargon.

Southwestern Oscillations is a hub for news, information, & commentary about CLIMAS research & climate related issues. The blog is regularly updated with news and information on: CLIMAS research projects and publications; workshops, seminars, colloquia, and presentations; ongoing and completed outreach activities (e.g., podcasts, presentations, Southwest Climate Outlook); feature articles and summaries on climate research and climate related issues; and blog specific content such as “Notes from the Field” reports, and “Ask an Applied Climatologist”.

Climate extremes pose serious threats to human health and place increasing demands on municipal services and infrastructure, and they threaten the long-term sustainability of a region. These extremes have implications for rapid response and emergency management, but they also amplify the effects of underlying social, economic, and environmental vulnerabilities, and have numerous potential long-term consequences in terms of planning-for, and dealing-with, potential disasters. In the Southwest, heat presents a unique opportunity to study the intersection between an acute event (e.g. a multi-day heat wave), and underlying vulnerabilities and risks. It also presents an opportunity to look for cross-sector impacts and potential cascades of impacts.

Arizona has experienced significant environmental, economic, and demographic changes over the last fifty years. General trends in climate, along with seasonal decadal variability (e.g., drought, flooding), impose cascading and interrelated impacts across multiple sectors (e.g. business, transportation, energy, infrastructure, etc.). Businesses are already experts at managing risk, but they face new challenges in anticipating these cascading effects linked to future climate-related impacts and associated changes in water availability, more severe/longer heat waves, and higher drought and flood risks. The Arizona Business Resilience Initiative (ABRI) is focused on developing a methodology for assessing business opportunities and managing risks to their operations associated with climate change and climate variability. We will work with business partners to answer two questions: (1) Based on current state-of-knowledge in climate change impacts and vulnerability assessment, what are the most probable impacts on the company’s operations and projections due to climate change? (2) With an understanding of the possible impacts, what are actions that can be taken to anticipate or mitigate these risks, or to position the company to take advantage of new opportunities that anticipate and adapt to climate change?

We are collaborating with regional ecological analysis, monitoring, and restoration groups to facilitate their use of climate data in their regular operations, as well as their long term planning/analysis. The impact of climate variability and change, especially as temperature and precipitation regimes shift, (resulting in differing time of onset for spring, reduced snowpack, etc.), necessitates a better understanding of these shifts, as well as the implications these changes have for practices of ecological management and restoration.

The RISA program was founded in 1995 as an experiment in the delivery of climate information to decision makers. In this project I am applying organizational ethnographic methods to develop a comprehensive history of the program and a description of its structure and function. This 20-year anniversary of the RISA program is an excellent time to reflect upon how RISA was created and developed and what other boundary and climate service organizations can learn from RISA about how to structure their programs to optimize climate service delivery, collaborative knowledge development, and learning within the organizations.

Adaptation in water management is a greatly revered yet poorly understood goal and concept. The U.S. suffers from an “adaptation deficit” (Jacobs et al. 2010), but there is little comprehensive research on how to advance adaptation. Arnell (2010) found that case studies of how adaptation is actually being delivered, and barriers to effective delivery (e.g., information, capacity, institutions), is a critical missing component of existing adaptation research. We address this gap both theoretically and methodologically in four study sites in the Arizona-Sonora region of the U.S-Mexico border: Tucson, AZ; Yuma, AZ and the Colorado River delta; the Upper Gulf of California (from Puerto Peñasco, Sonora, north); and Hermosillo, Sonora. The key research questions guiding this project include what is the role of networks in governance and the implications for using climate knowledge; what are the most effective climate services to support efforts to adapt; and how can decision-support tools build institutional adaptive capacity. We examine these questions via interactive semi-structured interviews, a webinar series on the border climate, and a scientist-stakeholder symposium. Project outputs will include pilot development of an institutional adaptive capacity index; presentation of results at professional meetings, papers in peer-reviewed journals, workshop and symposia reports, the Webinar series, quarterly production of the Transborder Climate newsletter, and a project website.

In many arid regions of Latin America and North America, research teams are conducting studies on how water governance actors and networks are confronting the challenges of global change including climate change and globalizing markets. Water governance actors—water managers, farmers and irrigators, non-governmental organizations, urban communities, and rural inhabitants—in these arid regions on the whole are knowledgeable and skilled in managing water supply and innovating new ways of meeting water demand, and they tend to be sophisticated users of climate information (e.g., projections). However, less is known about the adaptation strategies seeking to achieve water security and environmental sustainability that are effective in these arid regions, and there is even less systematic knowledge about the adaptive capacity of water governance networks. In short, how can adaptation and water security be measured?

Scientific knowledge can be critical for dealing with complex, socially relevant environmental issues, although much science is ultimately not used to inform decision making surrounding these issue because there is often a mismatch between the types and format of information available and what is useful for these potential consumers. Related to this confounding incongruity, there is often a fundamental lack of two-way communication between scientists and decision makers. This seminar, aimed at graduate students from any relevant discipline, explores concepts at the intersection between environmental science and decision making, including scientific information supply and demand, boundary organizations, co-production of knowledge, and knowledge networks, as well as recognition of the political context for decision making. It also includes practical aspects of two-way communication to explore the ways in which exchanges take place between scientists and decision makers, who can include resource management professionals, planners, policy makers, NGOs, and the general public. More than 60 students have now completed the course.

TreeFlow (treeflow.info) is a comprehensive web resource on tree-ring reconstructions of streamflow and climate for the western US, providing access to data for 70 streamflow reconstructions as well as information on data development and applications. While the primary users of streamflow reconstructions are water resource professionals, people in many other sectors and disciplines may find the data useful. TreeFlow is a collaborative effort between two RISA programs, CLIMAS and the Western Water Assessment at the University of Colorado. The TreeFlow website has been housed on a server at the University of Arizona but the web master, Jeff Lukas of WWA, expressed the desire to step down from this responsibility in the summer of 2013. In order to make updating easier, we decided to move the current Treeflow set of web page to a Drupal platform. The goal of this CLIMAS project has been to make that transition.

This is a DOI Southwest Climate Science Center project, upon which Woodhouse and Brice are working, with leverage from CLIMAS. The main goal of this project is to better understand how the set of hydroclimatic factors: prior summer/fall soil moisture, cool season precipitation/snowpack, and late winter/spring temperatures, contribute to low annual flows on the Colorado River. We will use a combination of instrumental data, tree-ring reconstructions, and downscaled CMIP5 projections to investigate the differing roles of these factors in both instrumental period droughts and droughts that have occurred over past centuries, including conditions in major sub-basins. We will test the sensitivity of annual low flows to different CMIP5 scenarios of changes in soil moisture, winter precipitation, and winter/spring temperatures, and compare climate conditions associated with historic/paleo low flows to those associated with low flows derived from downscaled projections.

The Colorado River Research Group is a team of ten scholars whose work focuses on the Colorado River Basin. This group provides information on economic tools and potential responses to climate effects on water supply and demand. It is a self-directed team that provides non-partisan expertise on Colorado River science, law, and policy. http://www.coloradoriverresearchgroup.org

CLIMAS, like all the members of the larger network of Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program, has a primary goal of providing relevant climate-related research to support decision making in our region. A fundamental, though frequently overlooked, element of this type of socially-engaged research is evaluation of the program and its constituent projects to: understand whether we effectively connect climate science with decision makers, learn about what integrative activities work and why, demonstrate successes to funding agencies, stakeholders, and the public, and improve the overall program. This project and program evaluation effort is being led by Gigi Owen and Dan Ferguson, but it involves all CLIMAS researchers to first develop and articulate an overarching program theory of CLIMAS (i.e., why do we do the work we do), then develop and monitor metrics that allow us to understand how the program and its projects are functioning.

Climate change is profoundly affecting forests throughout the Southwest. Tribal nations are at particular risk to these effects due to their reliance on ecosystem services provided by healthy forests. Tasked with managing over 5 million acres of forests and woodlands, the Navajo Forestry Department has identified the need to assess sensitivities of their forests to drought and climate change. This project involves working with Navajo Forestry Department foresters to quantify the climatic drivers of forest growth in the Chuska Mountains. The study provides an improved assessment of forest response to climate change that is vital to natural resource planning and management.

Speleothems, or cave formations such as stalagmites, are very useful archives of past climate change. They form over hundreds of thousands of years and can be dated absolutely using uranium incorporated into the speleothem structure. Rainfall has a particular oxygen isotope composition that is conserved as that rainfall drips through the soil and rock above the cave, enters the cave, and deposits calcium carbonate in the form of a speleothem. Sampling of the isotope chemistry must be along the growth axis, generally requiring removal from the cave. Speleothems are slow-growing, non-renewable resources on human timescales. Development of sustainable sampling methods, balancing conservation and science, ought to be a priority of the paleoclimate community. Thus, the objectives of this study were to: 1. Develop a list of currently used speleothem sampling methods 2. Increase transparency of speleothem selection and sampling methodology for scientists and other stakeholders 3. Provide a forum (initially an online survey) for other cave stakeholders such as managers, owners, and recreational cavers to give feedback on currently used methods 4. Develop a set of “best practice” recommendations for sampling. These guidelines are more an approach than a list of ways to sample, as sampling method will depend highly on location and discussions between scientists and stakeholders.

The primary objective of this project was to create a short soils film to document the field science research process of studying how climate impacts soils across the Santa Catalina Mountains, AZ. The film was designed to engage viewers by using an energetic, first person perspective on the exploration of soils from desert scrub to mixed conifer forest. The Santa Catalina environmental gradient is comparable to a latitudinal transect from southern Arizona to southern Canada, which offered a stimulating perspective on fieldwork across diverse ecosystems. The second part of the project involved writing two scripts to record with the soils film. The first script contained a “science message” where the link between soil science and climate change was presented using a formal, objective tone while maintaining audience interest with a first person documentary film style. The film delivers a formal science message using entertainment education, a method for reducing resistance to controversial science material, such as climate change. The second script employed a narrative story where the audience learns from a narrative delivered with a less formal “science story” tone, a technique found to increase audience comprehension and engagement.

Upon request, conducting presentations for local area (CA/NV) schools to promote better understanding and appreciation of weather and climate.

The purpose of this project was to develop a curriculum for law students that integrates science and the law. Both law and science professors were queried regarding the most important scientific topics to teach that were related to law. Based on these discussions and review of readily available curricula and literature on scientific literacy skills, the curriculum topics for this project were identified, revised, and edited to fit the constraints of the University of Arizona James E. Rogers College of Law Spring 2015, post-February Bar schedule. Readings and other class material were identified to accompany the in-class lectures and discussion.

In support of the Arizona Department of Health Services Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) program, CLIMAS researchers are conducting a vulnerability assessment for Arizona residents to climate change related impacts from vector borne diseases and Valley Fever.

This tool was developed in collaboration with CA Department of Water Resources to answer the question, “How might this year turn out in terms of precipitation?” The tool uses NWS COOP station-based data to generate cumulative distribution functions, probability density functions, and tabular data assessing the likelihood of different precipitation outcomes at a station during some future period. The tool uses the distribution of historical data to answer the question and the use of long-record stations is suggested for best results. Data are available at a daily scale, which allows users to monitor changes in possible precipitation outcomes as time moves forward and also to observe how a precipitation deficit and therefore likelihood of deficit recovery has changed following a storm. The graphics produced are interactive and presentation-quality.

The tool is currently in its beta form. Information is being collected via surveys and interviews on how target stakeholders use the tool in their decision making process and what elements are missing and difficult to understand. This feedback will be incorporated in the tool in its final form.

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are strongly linked to extreme winter precipitation events in the western U.S., accounting for ~80% of extreme floods in the Sierra Nevada and surrounding lowlands. In 2010, CNAP worked with the U.S. Geological Survey to develop the ARkStorm extreme storm scenario for California to quantify risks from extreme winter storms and to allow stakeholders to better explore and mitigate potential impacts. To explore impacts on natural resources and communities in montane and adjacent environments, wedownscaled the scenario to the greater Lake Tahoe, Reno, and Carson City region of Northern Nevada and California. This ArkStorm@Tahoe scenario was presented at about 10 stakeholder meetings, each with a different geographic and subject matter focus, and discussions were facilitated by the ARkStorm@Tahoe team to identify social and ecological vulnerabilities to extreme winter storms, science and information needs, and proactive measures that might minimize impacts from this type of event. Interruption of transportation, communications, and inefficiencies in interagency coordination were identified as themost likely and primary points of failure across multiple sectors and geographies, as these interruptions have cascading effects on natural and human systems by impeding emergency response efforts. Other key issues that arose in discussions included contamination risks to water supplies and aquatic ecosystems, especially in the Tahoe Basin and Pyramid Lake, distribution of fuel and other commodities, flood management, and coordination of health and human services during such an event. Mitigation options were identified for each of the key issues. Several science needs were identified, particularly the need for improved flood inundation maps. Finally, key lessons learned were identified and may help to increase preparedness, response, and recovery from extreme storms in the future.

The State of Bay-Delta Science (SBDS) is a synthesis of the current scientific knowledge of the Delta, emphasizing progress made on key research questions and remaining knowledge gaps. SBDS is a living document that will be updated and augmented by relevant science experts on a regular basis. SBDS also explores the policy implications of current science, tools for policy development and analysis, and ways to improve the delivery of science for management of the Delta.

Spot weather forecasts are forecast provided by NWS to fire agencies during fires or for controlled burns. They are increasingly used as "go/no go" decision management tools for prescribed wildfire activities by fire management agencies. Spot weather forecasts are inherently probabilistic in nature, but the decisions they support are often more deterministic. This project address both the wildland fire agency community by assessing the accuracy of spot weather forecasts, as well as identifying common uses, communication pathways between the fire community and the NWS, and opportunities to improve decision support.

The project is funded by DOI via the Southwest Climate Science Center. It is a research project designed to produce results specifically useful for natural resource managers. We will be collaborating with DOI stakeholders at Yosemite National Park and Devil’s Postpile National Monument as well as other CNAP-relevant regional stakeholders.

The Great Basin Climate Forum is held twice a year in the region, with the spring forum in Reno, NV and the fall forum moving around the region. The focus of the Forum is to provide the region with relevant and timely climate-related information for use in near-term management actions, as well as provide an opportunity to develop a user community of climate information, share information and concerns, and develop communication across sectors and agencies in the region.

Wildland Fire agencies are currently struggling with how to characterize "extreme" wildfire behavior--is fire behavior becoming more extreme, or are people's perceptions changing? What is the role of climate in extreme fire behavior? This project is 1) Characterizing extreme fire behavior using situational reports and current fire behavior indices across to time to identify changes and 2) Using a novel qual/quan approach to identify wildland firefighters perceptions of extreme fire behavior to identify common patterns in situational context, or experience levels in these types of events.

Held in conjunction with the GBLCC and ITEP, these 3-day workshops are designed to help tribal communities begin planning for climate change adaptation actions.This project focuses on the Great Basin Region, providing support to the Great Basin Tribes.

This project looked at using two different types of scenario planning processes (Adaptation Conservation Targets and Strategic Scenario Planning) with the BLM's Rapid Ecological Assessment data to explore how these processes could be integrated with this specific data set to support adaptation planning in the Region.

SAWTI is a decision support tool available to the general public that provides a 6-day forecast for Santa Ana Wind-related large fire growth potential. In addition, this project attempted to address inconsistencies in how Santa Ana wind events are described by the media during high wildfire danger, as well as understand how the general public understands and perceives wildfire risk in southern California. SAWTI has been successfully used to pre-postion resources during SA wind events with high large fire growth potential. The project is also a great example of a successful public/private/academic partnership to improve the safety of both the general public and wildland fire fighters.

"Develop and demonstrate a variety of early warning and drought risk reduction strategies, in partnership with both the providers of drought information and the users of drought information, including resources agencies, industries, institutions, and other major stakeholders. The California NIDIS Pilot includes four Pilot Activities in Southern California, Russian River, Central Valley, and the Klamath.

Conducted an in-depth study of drought planning in the Western U.S., which included an analysis of each state's drought plan and interviews with state drought managers in each of the 19 Western Governors' Association states. Identified and detailed the needs for improved drought early warning information, including more effective and relevant drought indicators and triggers, and the importance of information provided by the RISAs and NIDIS for reducing drought damages.

(1) To quantify probabilities of extreme daily precipitation and shed light on their theoretical distribution by applying mathematical theory to empirical examination of the observations. (2) To quantify the effect of spatio-temporal averaging on precipitation extremes and their probabilities of extremes.(3) To validate reanalyses and GCMs with respect to their ability to correctly represent extreme daily precipitation.

This is leading to studies of extreme precipitation events over complex topography (e.g. the Southwest), climate change projections of extremes, etc.

Using a new novel analysis using satellite derived atmospheric optical depth, research found that turbulent-kinetic energy calculations perform best in determining the “true” height of the planetary boundary layer (mixing height). The important implication is that heights are often actually higher than what is forecast by current methods, and higher heights allow for more prescribed burning days. This would increase land managed fuels treatments given that other factors of planned burning are in alignment.

The combination of flood risk with sustained drought conditions represents a major challenge to water managers, agriculture, endangered species and tourism in the Russian River. Furthermore there is a serious concern that climate change will make such extremes more common. This project engages the lead water management agency in the region, SCWA, the Russian River NIDIS Pilot Activity group and a team of scientific experts to provide advances in understanding drought that will meet stakeholder needs for drought preparedness and risk reduction. The project will carry out the following tasks: 1) Evaluate drought-ending AR characteristics using historical observations and new AR5 climate projections (with tools created for the previous IPCC model runs-AR4) 2) Develop a ‘”drought scenario” for the RR by engaging RR stakeholders and by using results from the IPCC model analysis in task 1, as well as lessons learned from the “ARkStorm” scenario for California flooding 3) Develop and carry out a process to characterize the drought readiness for the RR in close partnership with SCWA and the RR NIDIS Pilot Activity groups using results from tasks 1 and 2.

A new technique for statistically downscaling climate model simulations of daily temperature and precipitation is introduced and demonstrated over the western United States. The localized constructed analogs (LOCA) method produces downscaled estimates suitable for hydrological simulations using a multiscale spatial matching scheme to pick appropriate analog days from observations. First, a pool of candidate observed analog days is chosen by matching the model field to be downscaled to observed days over the region that is positively correlated with the point being downscaled, which leads to a natural independence of the downscaling results to the extent of the domain being downscaled. Then, the one candidate analog day that best matches in the local area around the grid cell being downscaled is the single analog day used there. Most grid cells are downscaled using only the single locally selected analog day, but locations whose neighboring cells identify a different analog day use a weighted combination of the center and adjacent analog days to reduce edge discontinuities. By contrast, existing constructed analog methods typically use a weighted average of the same 30 analog days for the entire domain. By greatly reducing this averaging, LOCA produces better estimates of extreme days, constructs a more realistic depiction of the spatial coherence of the downscaled field, and reduces the problem of producing too many light-precipitation days. The LOCA method is more computationally expensive than existing constructed analog techniques, but it is still practical for downscaling numerous climate model simulations with limited computational resources.

The CCTAG specifically advised DWR on the scientific aspects of climate change, its impacts on water resources, the use and creation of planning approaches and analytical tools, and the development of adaptation responses for California’s water sector.

The overall project is providing and analyzing regionally specific changes and variability in climate and sea level for community planning along the California Coast. Our contributions are data, interpretation, outreach and written materials.

Based at Greater Farallones National Marine Sanctuary, the Ocean Climate Indicators Project resulted in the first set of physical and biological ocean climate indicators specifically developed for the north-central California coast and ocean region. The indicators were developed through a best professional judgment (BPJ) process by an interdisciplinary group of over 50 regional research scientists and marine resource managers from a wide range of state and federal agencies, NGOs, and universities. Following development of the ocean climate indicators, a working group of 13 scientists and marine resource managers collaborated to develop the Ocean Climate Indicators Monitoring Inventory and Plan. The monitoring plan includes overarching monitoring goals and objectives for all of the indicators, and, for each indicator, monitoring strategies and activities; an inventory of available monitoring data; opportunities for expanding or improving existing monitoring or establishing new monitoring; and case studies with specific examples of the indicators’ utility for managers.

Scenario analyses and simulations for wildfire, climate and forest management.

We contributed data to accompany and enrich impact assessment products produced in previous years. These were repackaged by the California Department of Public health into individual county level reports sent to each county in California to support their planning process for county level climate adaptation plans.

Climate change poses significant risks and impacts to communities across the Great Lakes region. Inherent in preparing for existing and anticipated changes in our climate is a need for locally relevant and highly credible data and distilled information. Housed at the University of Michigan’s Graham Sustainability Institute, the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments Center (GLISA) is a trusted source of climate data and recognized as a resource for useful and useable information for decision makers across the eight states and two provinces that comprise our region. This proposal seeks funding to support a GLISA initiative to integrate over-land observational data (Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) -monthly, GHCN-daily, and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) Climate Division data) with over-lake and coastal observational data from Great Lakes Observing System (GLOS)/Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL)/Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN) gridded and observational data. Standardizing the timestep, period of record, variables, and data structure of these various data sets and creating a single data suite available to climate adaptation practitioners and information providers across the region will increase understanding of lake, nearshore, and coastal interactions for climate adaptation efforts. Additionally, development and process documentation of a standardized data suite will reduce data acquisition and standardization time for future researchers, creating more opportunities for applying lessons from these data sets to policy decisions across the region.

By building on previous work on municipal climate risk and vulnerability assessment by the Ontario Climate Consortium in the Region of Peel for the 2012-2013 round of GLISA funding, this project is intended to advance the following three overall objectives: (1) develop greater awareness and recognition of the importance and nature of climate change risks, vulnerabilities and need for adaptation among municipal staff and decision makers; (2) create greater capacity to conduct risk and vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning across municipal management and service areas; and (3) produce detailed information on one of the highest priority risks within York Region as an example, or template, for adaptation planning in York Region. The project will provide identification of municipal management and service area risks in York Region (climate hazards, impacts, and systems/components), a risk database populated with basic information on the management, service area risks, and trends on these risks, a refined protocol for York Region climate change risk analysis (suitable across Great Lakes), climate trends for variables to represent key hazards in York Region, and detailed characterization of the risks in municipal stormwater management.

This project extends and deepens engagement with Saint Paul residents by focusing on two previously identified areas of need: more education and reinvigorated social networks. In addition to revising and updating the Ready & Resilient guide produced for the 2014 – 2015 Climate Assessment Award, a model “modern” climate disaster kit that participants can assemble at a community-wide training will be put together. Additionally, pilot projects will be created to select, support, and record the efficacy of ideas to address barriers faced by lower-income neighborhoods and communities of color.

This project will evaluate the potential benefits of drainage water storage and recycling systems under future climate conditions by revisiting data from three wetland-reservoir-subirrigation systems constructed in the 1990s and monitored for 12 years. Benefits of the systems included yield increases due to subirrigation as well as reduced nutrient and sediment loads to receiving water. Both of these are expected to increase in future climate conditions. The project will also use future climate predictions to identify design and operational strategies that would be most beneficial in future systems. Opportunities and barriers to implementation will be investigated through engagement with drainage designers and installers and other key stakeholders in the region.

Can rural and tribal communities increase the adaptive capacity of their forests, waters, and livelihoods by communicating climate science and engaging a broader, regional network of stakeholders to implement a climate adaptation plan? This project will explore this question through building the resilience of two Northwood communities to climate change, helping them to transition from science-based planning to implementation. The Menominee Conservation District and the Red Lake Nation Band of the Chippewa Indians are the two groups involved, both of who depend directly on the benefits of the ecologically and economically valuable Northwood forests. The Model Forest Policy Program will support these communities in addressing their governance challenges, as well as adopting a regional, multi-sectoral approach to achieve more effective climate adaptation implementation.

In response to the more frequent and intense weather around the Great Lakes region, the primary goal of this project is to help municipalities prepare for the next storm by understanding where their community’s vulnerable infrastructure is and having a plan for emergency responders to identify and secure it. The secondary goal is to broadly disseminate the protocol and lessons learned from the pilot city so that more cities around and beyond the region can adopt the protocol and become better prepared. The Sensitive Sites and Infrastructure Protocol will outline how to identify and secure sensitive sites such as water and wastewater treatment plants and electricity transformers that are susceptible in extreme weather; this project will also provide guidance on what steps can be taken to secure this vulnerable infrastructure. The protocol will be tested in a Gary, Indiana city so that it can be refined and fine-tuned prior to broad dissemination.

This project will extend the results of a Lake Ontario scenario exercise completed in 2012 to assist the New York State Department of Conservation (NYSDEC) and its partners to update the Lake Ontario 2008 Lakewide Action and Management Plan (LaMP) while also providing similar information to inform local watershed plans. During a two-day workshop, diverse stakeholders utilizing the scenarios, accompanied with alternate extreme climate precipitation projections and potential impacts on water resources and habitats, will brainstorm how they might react to four sets of future changes. In the process, these stakeholders will discuss and determine what actions may be needed, the pros and cons of those actions and identify other needed data in order to assist the Lake Ontario basin to become more resilient to a changing climate. These results will be packaged for LaMP stakeholders and watershed planners to consider when writing and updating their documents.

Through joint funding from the National Park Service and NOAA, GLISA faculty and staff assisted with the organization, resource development, and information delivery for a scenario planning workshop with staff from the Apostle Islands National Park. Prior to the workshop GLISA staff coordinated with NPS and Apostle Island staff to develop multiple scenarios for discussion and planning use during the meeting.

This project investigates the adaption strategies of political and social systems in Texas to water shortages. This is important because the strategies used by different water management areas can have a huge impact on water resources and water availability. Also, understanding the decision-making process behind these strategies is an important step in preparing for future water crises.

Water utilities are central actors in water systems, controlling many of the components that make up the water regime. They can therefore influence the extent to which a water system transitions to a more sustainable or flexible state in response to external risks attributable to climate, policy or economic changes, or to address internal system vulnerabilities such as supply shortages or aging infrastructure. This project examines the rate of water system change as influenced by the rate of innovation that occurs within water utilities. The project team will conduct interviews with Oklahoma water utilities to assess both these external and internal factors.

Tropical cyclone-generated storm surges are among the world's most deadly and destructive natural hazards. This paper provides the first comprehensive global review of tropical storm surge data sources, observations and impacts, while archiving data in SURGEDAT, a global database. Available literature has provided data for more than 700 surge events since 1880, the majority of which are found in the Western North Atlantic (WNA), followed by Australia/ Oceania, the Western North Pacific (WNP) and the Northern Indian Ocean (NIO). The Bay of Bengal (BOB) in the NIO consistently observes the world's highest surges, as this sub-basin averages five surges ≥ 5 m per decade, and has observed credible storm tide levels reaching 13.7 m. The WNP observes the highest rate of low-magnitude surges, as the coast of China averages 54 surges ≥ 1 m per decade, and rates are likely higher in the Philippines. The U.S. Gulf Coast observes the second highest frequency of both high (≥5 m) and low (≥1 m) magnitude surges. The BOB observes the most catastrophic surge impacts, as 59% of global tropical cyclones that have killed at least 5,000 people occurred in this basin. The six deadliest cyclones in this region have each killed at least 140,000 people, and two events have killed 300,000. Storm surge impacts transportation, agriculture and energy sectors in the WNA. Oceania experiences long-term impacts, including contamination of fresh water and loss of food supplies, although the highest surges in this region are lower than most other basins.

The primary goal of this research has been to identify maximum storm surge height and location of peak surge for storm events occurring between 1880-2013 along the U.S. Gulf Coast. More than 80 sources of information including more than 3,000 pages of newspaper have been used to construct the database that includes just under 200 surge events. The data are stored in a GIS database that outputs maps according to surge height, year, and/or magnitude. The surge data are also being used to calculate return periods for extreme surge levels along the Gulf Coast region.

SURGEDAT’s comprehensive storm surge archive provides a unique opportunity to estimate coastal flooding frequencies. We are using data-driven statistical methods to estimate storm surge return levels, such as the height of the 100-year or 50-year storm surge, in specific locations. We have now completed a preliminary study that analyzed data for 26 Gulf Coast locations.

The storm surge return levels analysis is useful for analyzing the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to storm surge inundation. We collaborated with Oak Ridge National Laboratory to conduct a study on the vulnerability of critical energy infrastructure to storm surge along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Oak Ridge provided the location and elevation of hundreds of energy facilities, while SCIPP provided storm surge return levels. Preliminary results reveal that 72% of coastal refineries and 63% of coastal power plants are vulnerable to the 100-year storm surge along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

This study establishes relationships between rainfall and synoptic weather types. Sea level pressure grids from 1948 to 2012 were objectively classified according to a hybrid classification system based off of the subjective Muller weather typing system for Louisiana. Linear regression models, with synoptic frequency as the predictors and seasonal rainfall as the predictands, were used to determine how much of the precipitation variability in Louisiana can be explained by synoptic type variability. Derived models are found to be inefficient in explaining the interannual variability of precipitation in Louisiana in any season. However, these models are able to predict longer-term precipitation variability and trends in winter and fall. It has been determined that additional predictors are necessary to accurately model long-term precipitation variations in spring and summer. This study is an important first step to developing a precipitation downscaling model for Louisiana, which may assist in understanding the future precipitation regime in the region under climate change scenarios.

This research examines how water utilities in Oklahoma use dynamic capabilities to create sustainable value (Hart and Milstein, 2003) through technological, institutional, or social innovations, which may include supply capacity upgrades (e.g., pipelines), increasing the flexibility of water management (e.g., storm water management), integrating users into governance processes (e.g., adaptation planning and communication strategies), or decreasing demand through user management (e.g., conservation programs).

While much attention is focused on agricultural and economic impacts of the drought, less is known about how the drought has affected ecological niches. Attendant wildfires have decimated some critical habitats, such as that needed by the Houston Toad in the Lost Pines area near Bastrop, Texas. The western fringes of the region appear to be undergoing desertification, with large dust storms occurring nearly weekly during the summer of 2013. Other areas face water shortages, particularly along the Rio Grande River and the Lower Colorado River in Texas. This project focuses on ecological impacts of drought. Data are being gathered through interviews and surveys of area wildlife management officials and through collection of published records from wildlife refuges.

Several RISA Teams are collaborating on a survey of DOI Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) and their partners to identify opportunities for NOAA and its partners to improve access to information they need for decision making. The survey is being conducted to provide a sense of the types of weather and climate information they use and need for decisions relating to landscape management or other operational considerations. Questions relate to decisions from a week-by-week basis to long-term changes.

SCIPP, in conjunction with the South Central Climate Science Center (SC-CSC) hosted climate training workshops for environmental professionals and related staff of Oklahoma and Texas Native American tribes in summer 2014. The motivation for the training came from prior SCIPP work including a needs assessment and a climate adaptation meeting that revealed the need for climate education for Native American tribes. The two-day workshops took place in four locations around Oklahoma. The purpose of the workshop was to educate on the basics of climate science and to assist the tribes in addressing their climate science needs. Participants learned about weather and climate hazards, climate data tools, and vulnerability assessments.

This project pilots and tests a methodology for a participatory process to identify locally relevant critical thresholds for extreme events, and use these thresholds to customize climate projections to community-specific needs. Many communities are already vulnerable to extreme events, and many of these vulnerabilities will increase with climate change. Identifying and better understanding critical thresholds for extreme events, many of which are highly localized in nature, is key to developing effective community responses to climate change. This project brings together climate scientists, social scientists, capacity-building organizations, and local community stakeholders in a multi-disciplinary approach to address this critical need.

As climate change occurs, the frequency of freeze events will affect the presence and abundance of mangrove trees in Louisiana and neighboring states. Black mangroves (Avicennia germinans) provide Louisiana with numerous ecosystem services, including habitat for wildlife, sediment stabilization, and carbon sequestration. However these trees are highly sensitive to cold weather events. Fewer freeze events would allow for expansion of the black mangrove at the expense of salt marsh vegetation, while more frequent freeze events would result in the contraction or death of mangrove forests. This project used historical temperature data to identify the frequency, duration, and intensity of cold-air outbreaks along and near the Louisiana coastline. Changes in the frequency, duration, and intensity of cold air outbreaks were examined to evaluate the potential for future mangrove forest range expansion in response to climate change.

In order to help monitor wintering waterfowl habitat the Gulf Coast Joint Venture (GCJV) sought to determine if one or more weather parameters might explain the abundance of ephemeral shallow wetland habitats. Three different time periods were used to assess the habitat. The early period was from August 16 - October 31. The middle period was November 1 - January 15; and, the late period was from January 16 - March 31. Additionally, certain weather parameters were assessed to see if they correlated with the flooded acreage. The Drought Atlas was used as a criteria for determining the five weather stations in the different initiative areas provided by the GCJV. The Drought Atlas also provided calculations for weather variables used such as the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), and Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Using those calculations, some correlations were made to determine the relationship between the weather variable and the flooded acres. Although, it is still early to determine if there is a direct correlation. They found that during the early and late periods that SPEI 1 month showed a strong correlation. However, when all the periods were pooled together the SPI 4 month showed a correlation. The middle period did not show much of a correlation with any of the indices. Precipitation and average daily temperature also showed some correlations in different periods. These weather indices may prove to be effective in helping explain the variability in the waterfowl habitat. Adding more habitat acreage and weather data each year allows for the database to grow larger, and become more accurate.

The proposed project seeks to expand on the pilots and engage additional citizen scientists, to improve the user interface for uploading photos and related comments and metadata, and to use the photos gathered through these campaigns to develop a visual drought index, patterned after the Fujita Scale used to assess tornado damage. The project team that established the Field Photos project welcomes a new member to its team with the iSeeChange project, http://www.thealmanac.org/year.php. This blog-style entry along with smartphone apps being developed by EOMF promises to improve user ability to post photos and provide commentary. This new collaboration also will enable iSeeChange photos to be more accessible to researchers and stakeholders who are interested in land use and land cover changes.

The Rio Grande/Bravo River Basin (RGB) of the United States and México, is exposed to tornadoes, severe storms, hurricanes, winter storms, wildfire, and drought. In order to contribute to increased binational preparedness, information flow, and knowledge exchange in the region, the project investigators developed a prototype quarterly RGB Climate Outlook. The RGB Outlook features a synthesis of climate products, impact data and analysis, and is expressed in user-friendly language. The RGB Outlook is co-produced with colleagues from the U.S. and Mexico, in conjunction with the North American Climate Services Partnership (NACSP). Using an online survey, the project team will perform an evaluation of the uses of the RGB Outlook, and will report basic use statistics and recommendations for improving the prototype.

In order to develop capacity in the binational Rio Grande-Rio Bravo (RGB) river basin to cope with drought, use climate prediction information and analysis, and to foster planning for uncertain future conditions, the team convened a Climate Adaptation Workshop under the auspices of NACSP. Participants will include U.S., Mexican, and Canadian weather, water, and climate information providers, research scientists, and natural resource managers. In the two-day workshop, participants learned and used scenario planning methods to develop and examine strategies for coping with future climate uncertainty at seasonal and multi-decade time scales. The workshop facilitated interactions between NACSP scientists, climate services partners, and stakeholders with a focus on ecological, water resources, and economic management challenges and concerns in the RGB, with a focus on drought conditions.

The use of a generic drought index and idenfication of adaptation strategies could help farmers to minimize the risk for corn aflatoxin contamination.

A decision support tool will be provided so Alabama stakeholders can assess the risk for corn aflatoxin contamination based on the climate forecast and drought index. They can then assess the risk based on the combination of management practices (planting date and planting density) and climate information.

The use of climate information can help farmers adaption management strategies, nitrogen management, to reduce climate related risk, mitigate climate change and increase profitability.

The use of climate information can help wheat farmers adapting management strategies to minimize , Hessian Fly risk and also use weather data and climate forecast to anticipate the Hessian Fly risk before the crop is planted.

This information can be used for wheat variety selection based on climate forecast. The use of this information to adjust management can reduce climate-related risks

Disseminate research outcomes and applications derived in partnership with these to stakeholders through web-based tools, workshops, on-line training, publications, newsletters, interactive Adobe Flash-based instructional modules, presentations, and all other media appropriate to the respective stakeholder group. Particular attention will be paid to vulnerable and underserved constituencies including minority and organic farmers through cooperation with boundary organizations.

The challenge is to provide diverse stakeholders with trusted, useful, science-based information to aid them in making informed decisions. The Southeast Climate Consortium has already developed a successful climate extension program focused on assisting producers mitigate climate-associated risks and adapt to seasonal climate variability. We are working to expand these extension efforts to address longer-term climate change. We will increase the climate literacy of Extension faculty and stakeholders including youth, develop educational materials including regional handbooks on promissing mitigation and adaptation strategies and interactive online modules, use participatory approaches to promote effective engagement of stakeholders, including limited resource producers on the processes of developing adaptation and mitigation strategies, review methodologies to estimate and reduce carbon, water, and nitrogen footprints, map typical footprints of corn and wheat production systems in the southeastern USA, develop web-based footprint calculators for producer use on AgroClimate.org and communicate research needs and knowledge gaps to the research community. Expected outcomes of this project include increased climate literacy of Extension faculty and stakeholders, the establishment of trusting relationships among stakeholders, Extension faculty, and agricultural and climate scientists, and ultimately a vibrant and resilient agriculture in the region, capable of adapting to potential climate change and reducing carbon, water, and nitrogen footprints.

Irrigation scheduling strategies will utilize wireless remotes soil sensing, downscaled Doppler radar precipitation data, and crop growth models. The scheduling tools will be available on the web and accessible via smartphones.

The overarching goal of the SECC is to develop a climate information and decision support system for the southeastern USA that will contribute to an improved quality of life, increased profitability, decreased economic risks, and more ecologically sustainable management of agriculture, forestry and water resources.

Water availability is high in the Southeast, but periods of drought, particularly short-term in the summer, prevent consistent utilization of water resources. The tools which combine high resolution satellite, radar and in-situ data, with crop and hydrologic models provide stress indicators which in turn provide informational input into decisions made by the agricultural, horticultural, municipal, state government and utility stakeholders.

This project developed irrigation scheduling tools which are easily accessible and usable. The tools are delivered to the end-user as smartphone apps. Apps are now available for cotton, citrus, strawberries and urban turf (lawns). The ease-of-use should increase adoption of irrigation scheduling.

The overall goal of the proposed project is that Extension, working with partner organizations, effectively informs and influences livestock and poultry producers and consumers of animal products in all regions of the U.S. to move animal production toward practices that are environmentally sound, climatically compatible, and economically viable. A primary desired outcome is that stakeholder decisions result in reduced greenhouse gas emissions without sacrificing America’s capacity to produce meat, milk, eggs and other animal products. The project builds capacity to influence climate change-related decisions made by livestock and poultry producers across the U.S. Project objectives are to: 1) Equip extension personnel and stakeholders to assess needs relative to climate change mitigation and adaption and to deliver extension programming to target those needs, 2) provide on-demand web access to science based information, educational resources, and decision support tools, and 3) coordinate efforts so infomation and resources are utilized optimally at the state, regional and national levels.

Changes in the hydrologic cycle due to increases in greenhouse gases are projected to cause variations in intensity, duration, and frequency of precipitation events. Quantifying the potential effects of climate change and adapting to them is one way to reduce vulnerability. Since rainfall characteristics are often used to design water management infrastructures, reviewing and updating rainfall characteristics (i.e., Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves) for future climate scenarios is necessary. This study was undertaken to assess expected changes in IDF curves from the current climate to the projected future climate. To provide future IDF curves, 3-hourly precipitation data simulated by six combinations of global and regional climate models were temporally downscaled using a stochastic method.

The conventional point-source discharge permitting approach, referred to as the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES), is based on either a regulatory low flow (hydrologic, biological, or seasonal) criterion or on a hydrograph controlled release (HCR) approach. Regulatory low flows are often estimated using empirical equations because of the lack of historical flow data. Overestimated low flows may threaten water quality protection, while underestimated low flows can result in uneconomical wastewater treatment. Since uncertainty in low flow estimations is caused by climate variability, uncertainty in the permitting process can be reduced through explicit incorporation of climate variability. Therefore, the objective of this study was to demonstrate how the NPDES permitting process can be improved through the incorporation of climate information.

To further support NIDIS efforts in the Southeast and to assist with the NOAA Climate and Societal Interactions (CSI) programs, it is important to study the likely impacts of anthropogenic future climate changes on droughts in the Southeast. Together with existing drought monitoring, forecasting, and stakeholder engagement, the new information generated by this project regarding future droughts will help to develop more effective drought triggers and response policies.

Climate change projections from the National Climate Assessment (NCA) predict a sobering future for the United States. Current climate trends are predicting an increasingly more vigorous hydrologic cycle, which can be characterized by increasing precipitation amounts, consecutive dry days, and temperatures. There are a number of environmental processes that will be affected by climate change. Soil loss mechanisms, especially in the southeastern US, are susceptible to instability due to highly erosive rainfall. In this project, we are quantifying the effects of climate change on soil loss in Alabama.

Crop farming in the SE US is characterized by larger seasonal variability than the rest of the US. However, statistical seasonal forecasts based on ENSO are often not skillful enough to support crop management decision ahead of a season. Stakeholders have expressed a need for higher skilled seasonal forecasting tools for crop management. Exploring GCM-based and multi-ensemble seasonal forecasts for rainfall and temperature and linking these with decadal variability aim to improve seasonal forecasting tools for decision making in crop management. Farmers involved with the SECC's Tri-State Row Crop Group in the SE have also started to become interested in climate change issues but expressed a need to better understand uncertainties related with climate change scenarios and their impact on crops. Understanding and separating uncertainties from natural variability are key requisites to improve farmer’s decision making with uncertainty.

Water management in south Florida is characterized by the need to balance multiple objectives. Among the objectives are the maintenance of high groundwater levels to limit seawater intrusion and flood control measures that are also used to mitigate dry-season water shortages. In addition, south Florida's current population of 6 million is projected to grow to 10 million over the next 20 years, and urban water demand must be reliably managed. In this exceptionally vulnerable region, sea level rise and salt water intrusion have already impacted drinking water supplies and threaten the integrity of low-lying and highly-valued built and natural environments as diverse as Miami Beach and the Everglades. Long-term adaptive strategies are needed to ensure sustainable water resources for expanding populations, agriculture, and wetlands that serve multiple functions, including support of Florida's fishing industry. Development of such strategies has been hampered by conflicting stakeholder interests and technical, economic, and political challenges. This project will conduct highly interdisciplinary research, utilizing the expertise of multiple institutions, to investigate the hydrologic, economic, ecologic, and human behavioral dimensions of sustainable water management and land use planning under various climate change, economic, population, and sea level rise scenarios. The research will employ hydro-economic optimization approaches based on robust decision making to develop management strategies that ensure the resilience of water supplies for the built and natural systems, while also accounting for the broad-sector value of water use.

Coastal inundation during hurricanes and storms poses a major threat to the 75% of the U. S. population who live within 100 mi of the coast. With continued population growth and the impacts of climate change on hurricane intensity and frequency as well as sea level rise (SLR), coastal zones are faced with increasing risk of coastal inundation. This problem is most severe in Florida (FL) where hurricane frequency is the highest in the U.S. and SLR is expected to inundate most of Miami and many coastal highways. Coastal inundation risk is also high in North Carolina (NC) where hurricanes are much more frequent than South Carolina and Georgia. Mitigation of the increasing inundation risk is of primary concern to many entities including coastal communities, planning agencies, military facilities, water management districts, utility industries, state and county emergency management departments, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Army Corps of Engineers, federal and state Dept. of Transportation, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). For mitigation of coastal inundation risks, various agencies have used coastal inundation Decision Support Systems (DSS) which include such inundation maps as: MOM (Maximum of Maximum), which is the maximum inundation level in a coastal zone produced by a storm surge model (e.g., SLOSH) for an ensemble of hurricanes, and FIRM (Flood Insurance Rate Map), which includes the Base Flood Elevation (BFE) for hurricanes with a 1% annual chance of occurrence, also produced by storm surge and wave models for an ensemble of hurricanes. Both MOM and FIRM are widely used for the preparation, mitigation, planning, and response of hurricane and inundation hazards; however, these maps do not include any effect of climate change on hurricanes and SLR. The goal of this project is to develop the next generation DSS, by incorporating the projected impact of climat^Me change on hurricanes and SLR. As a first step, this project will assemble a wide spectrum of stakeholders to find out how they are using the current available coastal inundation maps, and what they would like to have to mitigate coastal inundation risk in the 21st century. This project will use a new methodology enhanced by UF to produce highly accurate coastal inundation maps for FL and NC, considering current climatology only. Concurrently, atmospheric and climate scientists will use global (FSU/COAPS) and regional (NCSU-WRF) models to develop hurricane ensembles during 2020-2040 and 2080-2100 for FL and NC, using the IPCC CMIP5 (SST) generated from the RCP8.5, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6 scenarios as lower boundary conditions. Experts in SLR at NCSU and FSU will analyze historical sea level data and conduct numerical modeling to estimate the SLR at the coastal boundaries of FL and NC for the same IPCC scenarios. UF and NCSU will use the hurricane ensembles and the SLR scenarios provided by FSU and NCSU as input to storm surge and coastal inundation models to produce high resolution coastal inundation maps which include climate change effects. These climate-enhanced coastal inundation maps, along with existing inundation maps, will be communicated to the end users for their comments and feedback, which will be the basis for further improvement of the maps, via a web-based Content Management System (CMS). The Coastal Inundation DSS, which will include the CMS and the inundation maps, will allow continual input from the end users as new products (various inundation maps) are developed and will facilitate discussions on the products so that user needs can be identified and met. The next generation coastal inundation maps will have much less uncertainty than the current ones and hence greatly improve the ability of stakeholders to mitigate future risk of coastal inundation.

Research findings are shared continuously with project participants to foster ongoing reflection and to elicit suggestions or actions for improving project implementation. During the next phase of this study, researchers will stratify participants into categories based on SNA betweenness centrality scores to facilitate sampling for interviews that examine perceptions about the circumstances that influence cross-disciplinary integration and collaboration. Furthermore, participation in specific “integration platforms” will be studied to identify barriers and opportunities for boundary crossing. More broadly, lessons learned in PINEMAP will inform the creation and management of future “team science” research and training programs.

The proposal seeks to understand the low frequency variability of the Tropical Western Atlantic Storms (TWAS) and its relationship with Intra-Americas Seas (IAS) climate processes. Traditionally simulations and predictions beyond the NWP range for tropical Atlantic storms have largely been on their frequency of occurrence throughout the basin over the 6-month period from June through November. This type of forecast or simulation has limited application although they have demonstrated admirable skill on seasonal time scales and on longer time scales in their rendition of the 20th century variability. The success of this study could be a harbinger for attempting predictions of a subset of the tropical Atlantic storms that are geographically more limited in the basin (western Atlantic). Furthermore a majority of TWAS make landfall over continental North America. In addition, the TWAS climatologically has a characteristic dominance of genesis in June and November, which could also be potentially exploited if we understand their causality. Thus this proposal is relevant to NOAA’s NGSP mission on climate adaptation and mitigation to the threat of potential land falling tropical storms in North America. The proposed work will employ high-resolution (~10km) coupled ocean-atmosphere model centered over the IAS in an attempt to resolve the TWAS, the Caribbean Low Level Jet (CLLJ), air-sea fluxes in the IAS, the diurnal variations in the region and capture the associated, intricate sub-surface ocean structure. In addition several sensitivity experiments are also proposed to understand the influence on the genesis and lifecycle of TWAS. This framework of regional coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling is deliberately chosen to afford the high resolution for multi-decadal integrations and limit the model drift by forcing the regional system with credible large-scale reanalysis (NCEP CFSR). The coupled GCM’s have shown acute climatological bias in the IAS region with poor depiction of the associated variability in the boreal summer season. The central objective of the proposal is to understand whether (and followed by how) IAS climate processes like the evolution of the IAS SST and sub-surface ocean evolution from the prior seasons, variability of CLLJ, air-sea fluxes in IAS, overlying atmospheric meridional cell can influence TWAS. The basis for this investigation is buttressed by several related observational evidence, a clear working knowledge of the models to be employed with its demonstration of use over another domain, and availability of computing resources to conduct the proposed integrations.

Global increases in surface air temperature are the most widespread and direct consequence of anthropogenic climate change (ACC). However, while 21st century temperatures are projected to increase in Puerto Rico and the broader U.S. Caribbean (whose geography is contained within the Caribbean Landscape Conservation Cooperative, or CLCC), the low variability and already high annual average temperatures suggest that the largest climate-related impact on ecosystems and water resources is more likely to be through changes in the timing, pattern, and availability of moisture. While numerous perturbed climate simulations are available through model intercomparison projects, the development of adaptation strategies that respond to ACC for the CLCC, and particularly for Puerto Rico, is currently hindered by the lack of local-scale climate scenarios that resolve the complex topographical and meso-scale climate features that will mediate the island-wide response to the global anthropogenic climate forcing.

We propose to address these issues by developing a suite of dynamically downscaled, non-hydrostatic climate model projections for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Caribbean region. As part of this effort, and as described more fully below, we will:● Engage in ongoing dialogue with ecologists, hydrologists, and conservation biologists, eliciting expert knowledge to focus resources on the most valuable types of information that will aid decision-making● Simulate precipitation response to the anthropogenic forcings (both local and global) at a scale that resolves key physical processes, such as convection, across Puerto Rico ● Characterize the uncertainty in the projections by nesting up to two regional climate models (RCMs) within within a minimum of two and up to four general circulation models (GCMs), that simulate the climate response to the anthropogenic forcing based on a ‘business-as-usual’ emission scenario (known as RCP8.5)● Develop projections of ecologically-relevant climate variables that will most directly influence the distribution and persistence of wildlife species, namely, ectotherms (e.g., reptiles, amphibians). Such variables include, in addition to precipitation, projected changes in cloud-base heights, surface air temperature, relative humidity, and evapotranspiration.

Our framework provides a unique opportunity to examine climate change impacts on island-ecosystems in a region of the global tropics with a highly dynamic climate regime. The resulting simulations will fill a critical need for climate change information in Puerto Rico and the broader U.S. Caribbean by enabling future estimates of likely deviations from known ranges of species’ thermal/moisture optima. Our proposed work furthers scientific understanding of local responses to global climate change and lays the foundation for a decision analytic approach to climate adaptation in the Caribbean LCC.

Evaluate of the skill of the large-scale NMME seasonal climate predictions (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, humidity, wind speed) on a daily basis over all seasons and over a common grid across the Southeast US. We will use the NMME set of seasonal hindcasts (http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.NMME/ ), which are from seven different global coupled ocean-atmosphere models. • Statistical downscaling of the NMME forecasts to the watershed scale and evaluate the skill of these seasonal predictions over three specific domains: Peace River Manasota Regional Water Supply Authority, Tampa Bay Water and the South Florida Water Management District. • Execution of a comparative study across three organizations of the benefits and limitations of using seasonal climate forecasts for their operational needs using the following techniques: Interviews, Qualitative focus groups, Cross organizational comparisons and analysis

To increase the regional relevance and usability of climate and sea level rise data and tools for the specific needs of water suppliers and resources managers in Florida. The project will (1) develop a collaborative “Working Group” comprised of public water suppliers, water resource managers, climate scientists, and hydrologic scientists focused on understanding how climate variability/change and sea level rise may impact planning and operations of Florida’s public water supply utilities, (2) Identify the appropriate spatio-temporal scales, climatic indices, and events that drive utilities’ decisions, and evaluate the practical applicability of current climate tools at these scales through synthesis nationally available General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations and statistically and dynamically downscaled data products for the region, and (3) Identify appropriate entry points for climate data and model predictions in Working Group members’ models and decision making processes and, for at least two applications, evaluate the usefulness of these data for minimizing current and future risks associated with climate variability/climate change and sea level rise.

The University of Florida, Florida State University and the Southeast Climate Consortium, along with representatives from seven major public water supply utilities and three Water Management Districts in Florida, propose to develop and implement a collaborative Working Group to increase the relevance and use of climate variability, climate change and sea level rise data and models by public water supply utilities. The Working Group will operate as a social learning and collaboration platform and will employ participatory methods and a knowledge management framework to promote shared knowledge, data, models and decision-making tools among public water suppliers, water resource managers, climate scientists and hydrologic scientists. While the immediate focus of the Working Group will be on Florida public water supply utilities, the Working Group process and the Working Group products will be transferable and useful nationwide. Furthermore, representatives of the Working Group will participate in the Piloting Utility Modeling Applications for climate change (PUMA) project being coordinated by Dr. Philip Mote, Director of the Climate Change Research Institute at Oregon State University to ensure cross-RISA synergy, consistency and collaboration.During the course of this two-year project we will: · Develop a collaborative Working Group comprised of public water suppliers, water resource managers, climate scientists, and hydrologic scientists focused on understanding how climate variability/change and sea level rise may impact planning and operations of Florida’s public water supply utilities. · Identify the appropriate spatio-temporal scales, climatic indices, and events that drive utilities’ decisions, and evaluate the practical applicability of current climate tools at these scales through synthesis of historical data, nationally available General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations, and regionally downscaled data products. · Identify appropriate entry points for climate data and model predictions in Working Group members’ models and decision making processes and, for at least two applications, evaluate the usefulness of these data for minimizing current and future risks associated with climate variability/climate change and sea level rise. The products of this first effort of the Working Group will be a consistent set of retrospective simulations and future climate scenarios at industry relevant space/time/event scales that have been vetted through the academic, public water supply, and regulatory communities in Florida. The accuracy of retrospective simulations and uncertainty of future climate predictions will be thoroughly examined, quantified and documented by the Working Group. These vetted results will provide consistent inputs to existing utility and regulatory agency models and decision processes. All Working Group products will be available through a web-based knowledge management and transfer system including storage, access and retrieval of data reflecting the self-defined needs of the group members.

The SRECA program was first initiated in August 2013, when the Extension leadership in the Southern region asked the coordinators from three USDA/NIFA-funded regional climate projects to coordinate a regional professional development program. SRECA is designed to help Extension professionals who bring a variety of perspectives on climate change become leaders and facilitators in their state for appropriate and relevant programming in climate variability and change. The Academy enables individuals to work in small groups to develop resources or programs and report experiences to the entire group through web-based workshops over the next year. We aim to improve Extension response and programming in four target areas: Crops, Livestock, Forestry, and Coastal areas. Through new relationships built with professionals in similar arenas across the region, participants will exchange ideas and enhance their programs. http://www.pinemap.org/sreca-conference-site; https://srecablog.wordpress.com/

We evaluated the SimCLIM model for downscaling global climate projections to specific locations in the southeastern USA. Outputs of the model are now being used for maize simulations with DSSAT. Additional crops to be evaluated will be selected from among cotton, winter wheat, and peanut.

Over the past several years there have been increasing calls for decision support tools in the area of climate (e.g. NRC 2009a, NRC 2009b) and acknowledgement that changing extremes add to an already challenging decision environment for water managers (e.g. IPCC 2012). Recurring droughts, flood events, and concerns over extreme events in the future have created a strong interest among water managers in the Front Range of Colorado about how to plan in the face of these extremes (Lowrey et al. 2009, Woodbury et al. 2012). Traditional methods of identifying alternatives for water supply management may not fully capture the range of existing preferred alternatives, meaning that utilities may miss some of the solutions that appropriately balance among tradeoffs. In this project we seek to co-produce and test a newly developed multi-objective decision tool as a Testbed to aid this process, balancing conflicting management objectives for water planning under climate extremes and determining how policy alternatives perform under severe climate uncertainty. By combining innovative search algorithms, simulation models, and interactive visualizations, the proposed decision tool helps generate and evaluate new alternatives, as well as promotes managers’ learning about the tradeoffs and vulnerabilities of their systems. This Testbed approach will result in a visualization of the decision space that, we argue, may in fact expand the alternatives that still meet managers' decision criteria and allow managers to be able to visualize these more clearly than traditional tools. In our final step we will query managers about the tool, its results, and the process involved in incorporating such a tool into practice for helping to make decisions in anticipation of future extreme events. We will analyze these results and make some inferences about the viability of MOEAs and the larger issue of incorporating new tools into practice for urban water utilities.

Extreme events cause the majority of societal costs related to weather and climate and can provoke adaptive responses. WWA is beginning a new focus on extremes that is designed to place extreme events in the context of historical climate variability and projected climate change, assess how risk varies over time and space, and examine how extreme conditions interact with place-based vulnerability. The first activity in this new research theme is to build a definitive database of extreme weather and climate events in the three-state region. This regional extremes database is intended to be useful to hazard planners and emergency managers trying to identify where and when the risk for different types of extreme events is greatest. It will also serve as a foundation for further research on what leads to the variation in risk over time and space. The first concrete WWA effort on extremes is the development of a comprehensive roster of the major weather and climate extremes in recent history, as defined by their effects on society. Two sub-databases have been compiled: a more comprehensive dataset from multiple sources (chiefly NOAA-NCDC, FEMA, and state agencies) focused on the post-1950 period that includes over 20,000 floods, windstorms, tornadoes, winter storms, and other extreme events, and a smaller, much more selective roster of some 200 of the highest-impact events in the three-state region back to the late 1800s. The two databases are in spreadsheet form, and the next step is to make them accessible to our stakeholder group to get feedback on the structure and usefulness of the roster, and to make the high-impact roster available on the WWA website. The immediate future goal of the extremes project is to have the High Impact Events roster reviewed by a small set of key stakeholders, and then to distribute a beta version for further review, and make it available on the WWA website. Next we will work on the more exhaustive “Big List,” and create statistics and maps detailing the pattern of extremes in the three-state WWA region. This will require decisions on the structure and usability of the roster. As we develop the Extremes theme over the next five years we will identify additional dimensions (e.g., cascading and secondary extremes like landslides) and decision-making contexts (e.g., stormwater management) that can be evaluated in the framework of climate risk management, which analyzes the decision context, risks, choices, options and decision criteria, as part of the process of working with decision makers to build adaptive capacity to weather and climate extremes.

This project description encompasses a number of smaller efforts aimed at helping water managers in Utah understand the potential impacts of climate change to water resources and consider climate change impacts and adaptation when planning for the future. Building off of previous work with early adopters like Salt Lake City Public Utilities, WWA has developed or brought into a number of additional opportunities to interact other major water management groups in Utah. Notably, the Utah Division of Water Resources (UTDWR) requested that WWA (via T. Bardsley) serve as an expert reviewer for the forthcoming Utah Water Plan, in addition to generating text and graphics for the climate change section of the plan. In addition, WWA has engaged with the Weber Basin Water Conservancy District (in partnership with UTDWR) on a project evaluating both climate change and paleohydrology scenarios for the reliability of water deliveries on the Weber Basin. Future work will include refining systems modeling analysis and scenarios for testing with the Weber Basin Water Conservancy District in addition to Exploring partnerships with the Jordan Valley Water Conservancy District to assist them in understanding and integrating climate change into their water resources planning.

Real-time monitoring of the snowpack is essential to forecasting runoff amount and timing and preparing for both drought and flooding. New spatially-explicit snowpack monitoring data products based on remote sensing are being developed by WWA researchers and others. These products could usefully complement the backbone NRCS SNOTEL network and facilitate new streamflow forecasting approaches, but it is not currently clear how best to deploy these products to enhance the overall utility from snowpack information. Thus WWA investigators are developing and conducting three one-day user workshops, in late summer 2015, in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming. We will provide participants with a brief overview of snow hydrology informed by the latest science on snowpack processes, describe the current status of snowpack monitoring capacity and products, and solicit feedback on how participants are using them. Finally, we will introduce the spatially-explicit snowpack monitoring products and solicit feedback on their present utility and potential future utility. We will summarize the findings from the workshop in a report to NIDIS and our other partners. The primary future task is to carry out the workshops in August and September 2015, and then write up the findings and recommendations in a workshop report. We anticipate that the workshops will serve to guide further work by PIs Molotch and Deems in refining and deploying their respective snowpack-monitoring products, by informing them about user needs and capacities to ingest new data, and by connecting them with users who may become partners in supporting that work.

In collaboration with the Eastern Shoshone and Northern Arapahoe tribes, this project encompasses the development a comprehensive drought plan for the Wind River Indian Reservation in Wyoming (which is jointly managed by the two tribes). The research team will develop analytical tools and provide analysis to inform the drought plan. WWA investigator McNie’s involvement in the research project is to provide evaluation support and to help inform the research design. She will use a typology of research approaches to guide the design and analysis of research goals, objectives and processes in order to ensure that the project meets its goals of producing useful drought information to inform future policy decisions.

This project was motivated by a request from Stratus Consulting that WWA provide climate science expertise for a climate adaptation planning effort being undertaken for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The overall process attempted to ascertain from NREL what major climate-related areas of concern were at the facility and provide guidance on how to potentially meet those challenges. WWA's contribution was to provide, both in person and in writing, guidance on the general observed and projected climate of the area as well as specific potential impacts. The NREL project was intended to be a pilot effort informing other site-specific adaptation planning at DOE facilities across the country. The outcome here was climate adaptation planning by a single stakeholder. However, we also hope that we advanced the overall concept and practice of site-specific climate adaptation, which will likely become more common as federal requirements proceed.

In April 2015, WWA’s Eric Gordon and Anne Gold from CIRES Education and Outreach co-taught a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) entitled “Water in the Western United States.” Available on the Coursera platform and free to anyone with an Internet connection, the course was designed as an undergraduate-level survey course and featured 17 expert guest lecturers, including WWA’s Jeff Lukas, Ben Livneh, and Kristen Averyt. More than 6,000 students registered for the course, representing 175 countries. Informal conversations indicated that a number of existing WWA stakeholders and researchers either took the course directly or recommended it to others to expand general understanding of water issues in the region. The course was a novel opportunity for WWA and a foray into new education venues. In addition, the professionally edited video lectures on water and climate will also be useful in future WWA outreach activities.

The Uinta-Wasatch-Cache and Ashley National Forests are faced with the challenge of incorporating climate change into their land management planning. To meet this challenge, the forests have begun to synthesize scientific information about how climate change may affect resources and conduct vulnerability assessments. These vulnerability assessments can provide information to help guide climate adaptation planning and are one element of the US Forest Service’s Climate Change Scorecard. The assessments, developed by former WWA postdoctoral researcher J. Rice along with T. Bardsley and L. Joyce (USFS RMRS and USDA Great Plains Climate Hub) will provide information to help land managers integrate climate change information into their planning, identify information gaps, and set a foundation for future assessments that may be conducted. Accomplishments to date include two introductory workshops to introduce basic climate change information while also seeking input from the forests to help address their information needs. A draft USFS General Technical Report on the Watershed Vulnerability Assessment has undergone Forest Service,and external expert review. Final publication of the Watershed Vulnerability Assessment for the Uinta-Wasatch-Cache and Ashley National Forest, Utah General Technical Report is expected in summer or fall of 2015. A separate USFS and outside expert review of the Assessment of Aspen Ecosystem Vulnerability to climate change for the Uinta-Wasatch-Casche and Ashely National Forests will also take place summer and fall of 2015, with final publication of GTR winter/spring of 2015/2016.

WWA updated and expanded its 2008 Climate Change in Colorado report with a 2014 version that synthesizes the best available climate science relevant to the state’s water resources. Like the original, the updated report covers the observed climate patterns and trends in Colorado, a primer on climate models, linking observed state trends with global changes, projections of future climate and hydrology, and guidance on using this information in planning and management. Several dozen stakeholders at the local, state, and federal levels reviewed or contributed to the updated report. One key area of updating was using the new CMIP5 global climate model output; for Colorado, CMIP5 shows a modest shift towards wetter projected precipitation outcomes compared to the previous CMIP3 models. Subsequent to the release of the report, lead author J. Lukas gave numerous media interviews and presentations on the findings of the report. In addition, this study has been used to inform the Colorado Climate Plan, which is currently under development by the state of Colorado.

The goal of this project was to develop an overview of key climate-related vulnerabilities facing several sectors in the State of Colorado. During its 2013 session, the Colorado Legislature passed HB 13-1293, which declared that “climate change presents serious, diverse, and ongoing issues for the state’s people, economy, and environment. Among other provisions, the bill required a person appointed by the Governor to submit an annual report to a number of committees within the legislature “on climate change issues generally, the current climate action plan...and the specific ways in which climate change affects the state.” Multiple state agencies, including the Colorado Energy Office, the Colorado Department of Public Health and the Environment, and the Colorado Water Conservation Board are leading efforts to respond to this legislation and to meet the challenges of climate change in the state. To help meet this requirement, the Colorado Energy Office commissioned the University of Colorado Boulder (through the Western Water Assessment) and Colorado State University to complete a study providing an overview of the key vulnerabilities that climate change and climate vulnerability will pose for Colorado's economy and resources. The primary outcome of this project was to engage a number of state agencies and others in thinking about climate vulnerability, which will aid in future preparedness planning. The study also informed the ongoing development of the Colorado Climate Plan, showing a direct link to policy. Finally, it created a reference and a resource for groups making use of this type of information, such as The Nature Conservancy. To date, the main future direction is providing guidance to Taryn Finnessey at CWCB in the development of the Colorado Climate Plan.

The goals of this project are twofold: First, we aim to to co-produce relevant climate Information and integrate that into the socio-ecological decision making context—this includes helping with the development of future climate scenarios for specific projects; application of existing and emerging climate products and tools; interpretation of emerging and relevant physical science research; and continuous engagement with stakeholders and boundary organizations in exploring appropriate tools and datasets. Second, we are conducting primary research into drivers of hydro-climatic trends and extremes in the North Central Great Plains and Intermountain West Regions (Missouri River Basin and Upper Colorado River Basin) across multiple timescales. These include understanding drivers of droughts and developing better indicators for short and In meeting the project goals mentioned above, we expect to: (a) Help the NCCSC funded projects as well as any relevant NCCSC stakeholder (e.g., DOI Land Managers, LCCs) in navigating through the process of better incorporating our current climate understanding and use appropriate methodology (approach, datasets, and other tools) to represent the effect of climate change to their specific system. (b) Produce research output (papers and datatsets) relevant to drivers and indicators of hydroclimatic trends and extremes in the region, in particular, focus on drought and evapotranspiration.

This project was intended to be a co-production with SLCDPU senior staff aimed at understanding the potential impacts of climate change to their water supply system and to explore adaptation options to help the utility maintain a reliable system under a variety of potential future conditions. Since the inception of this effort, WWA has established a collaborative team including experts from the University of Utah, the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, NOAA and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Regular meetings with SLCDPU helped focus research efforts to best address their challenges and information needs. Since publication of an article in Earth Interactions in 2013, T. Bardsley has presented at several conferences as well as to boards of local water districts, and the project has raised awareness and interest in understanding the impacts of climate change to water resources and acted as a catalyst for discussions of adaptation planning among a variety of water managers in northern Utah (see “Informing the Integration of Climate Information into Water Supply Planning in Various Contexts in Utah” project description above.) Ongoing work will include testing the recently completed system-wide integrated water planning model under several climate change, water demand, and infrastructure scenarios. Additional work is required to better define future water demand scenarios. We plan to also incorporate recently completed 4km resolution dynamically downscaled climate projections for the Wasatch into hydrologic modeling and the integrated water resources model.

The adaptation decision analysis project seeks to analyze decision processes in climate-sensitive sectors and to build decision models that act as both research tools and decision aids. We are focusing on three sectors: dryland agriculture; water, flood and stormwater management; and ranching. The goal is to provide decision aids to those sectors while also conducting research to better understand the processes underlying people’s adaptation decisions. Underlying this work is a basic question: When is it time to change strategies and practices in a changing climate? In this year we completed and made available the Wastewater Temperature Model, which simulates exceedance of stream temperature standards below wastewater treatment plants based on scenarios of up-stream temperature and flow. We also developed the prototypes of the next generation of farm adaptation models, a suite that simulates crop switching choices by farmers based on expected value, and the role of risk management tools like insurance. The immediate future goal of the climate adaptation decision analysis project is to get the crop switching analysis and models into the peer reviewed literature. Following that, the project will take on development of a joint project with the DOI North-Central Climate Science Center and the USDA Northern Great Plains Climate Hub to develop and deploy a drought decision model for the region’s livestock ranching industry. WWA’s role will be to integrate its adaptation decision modeling with the agricultural production expertise of the Climate Hub and the Climate Science Center’s ecosystem modeling. WWA will also prepare a research proposal to NSF that extends the drought decision modeling into a more experimental direction to ask basic questions about the role of risk aversion, insurance, and seasonal climate forecasts in ranch decision-making.

The project, now completed, also engendered new efforts to expand the work in Colorado via support from the Department of Interior’s North Central Climate Science Center, in which I. Rangwala has now become the lead climatologist,, and which entailed a collaboration among the Nature Conservancy (TNC) and its partners, including the U.S. Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management, and National Park Service, in the Gunnison Basin, San Juan Mountains and the Four Corners regions. Rangwala developed landscape-scale climate scenarios from the CMIP5 global climate models for the region, and these were used by an ecologist and a social scientist, in conjunction with Rangwala, to develop narrative scenarios of future climate and its impacts. The scenarios were then used to develop the ecological and social-ecological response models for selected landscape targets: sagebrush, subalpine spruce-fir forests, piñon-juniper forests, and seeps and springs. Rangwala was an integral part of the interdisciplinary and multi-agency team in developing these models. Lastly, based on these modes, the project scientists in a collaborative process with land managers, are now in the process of developing robust adaptation strategies that could work across these climate futures for a particular time horizon. Rangwala has been working with WWA team members J. Barsugli, W. Travis, K.Clifford, B. Neely (TNC), R. Rondeau (Colorado Natural Heritage), E. Towler (NCAR), T. Chapman (TNC), and C. Wyborn (U. Montana), among others, to evaluate and improve the approach for developing more effective and actionable climate scenarios for resource management and conservation. This addendum to the project is being pursued now as a white paper on scenarios in collaboration with the NCCSC. Finally, the CLIMAS team at University of Arizona conducted an evaluation of the climate science outreach project, building a data-base of outreach experience by the two key climate scientists involve din the project, Rangwala and Barsugli, and the first product of this evaluation: "Lessons from First Generation Climate Science Integrators" by Julie Brugger, Alison Meadow and Alexandra Horangic has been accepted for publication in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

The Intermountain West Climate Dashboard, which debuted in October 2012, is a grid of 30 weather, climate and water information graphics that are automatically updated on the Dashboard as their providers update them. Feedback from WWA stakeholders has indicated that the Dashboard is a very useful ‘one-stop shop’ for up-to-date climate and water information for WWA’s three-state region. The creation of similar dashboards by other climate-service entities (e.g., Great Basin Climate Dashboard by WRCC and DRI/CNAP) is further confirmation of the effectiveness of this format. Work during the past year on the Dashboard has mainly consisted of producing the monthly text briefings (~1500 words) that summarize and interpret current conditions, as well as minor web maintenance to ensure consistent loading of all graphics. The Intermountain West Climate Dashboard is at: http://wwa.colorado.edu/climate/dashboard.html. In the coming year, WWA plans to further develop and officially debut a second, similar, dashboard covering the combined eight-state region of WWA, the North Central Climate Science Center, and the Northern Plains Regional Climate Hub, in collaboration with those two entities. A prototype “Rocky Mountains and High Plains” Dashboard was created in May 2015.

Keywords Topic Areas Key Supporters Geographic Scale

Adaptation, mitigation Local (i.e. a city or county)

Adaptation, mitigation DOI CSCs

Water Resources

adaptation, decision support, planning tool, Bristol Bay

CIty of Dillingham, Bristol Bay Native Association, Bristol Bay Borough

ocean acidification, fisheries, sensitivity, economy

Ecosystems, Marine Ecosystems

NOAA PMEL, University of Alaska Ocean Acidification Research Center

State (i.e. multiple locales within a state)

ocean acidification, fisheries, sensitivity, economy

Ecosystems, Marine Ecosystems

NOAA PMEL, University of Alaska Ocean Acidification Research Center


network analysis, climate services, climate science, Alaska


hydropower, water, snowpack, streamflow

NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service


Adaptation, mitigation None

Coasts LCCs

sea ice, historical NOAA NSIDC

Extreme Events

research needs, research gaps


coastal change, erosion, western alaska


Coasts, Water Resources


climate divisions, national weather service

DOI CSCs, NOAA RCSDs, NWS


Local (i.e. a city or county)

weather, seasonal Extreme Events

north slope borough, onshore resource development, offshore resource development

Infrastructure, Energy, resource development

US DOI Bureau of Ocean Energy Management US DOI Bureau of Land Management NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service

National Weather Service


national weather service, seasonal forecast, monthly forecast

Extreme Events, weather



Coasts

Same as above Natural Hazards Same as above

Same as above Urban Same as above

Same as above Coasts Same as above Local

Coasts COCA Local

storm surge, coastal flooding, urban watersheds

NASA - National Climate Assessment

Coastal Flooding, Storm Surge, Damage Estimation, Future Scenarios

Coasts DOI/NPS Local


Water SARP Regional

Urban NSF Local

Same as above Civil Infrastructure NSF Local

Jamaica Bay, water quality, disturbances, drivers, resilience, regime shifts, systems analysis, indicators, monitoring

Jamaica Bay, water quality, disturbances, drivers, resilience, regime shifts, systems analysis, indicators, monitoring

knowledge network, water management, water supply

Green Infrastructure, sustainability, urban systems, sewers, flood management, citizen science, climate

Coasts Local

Fisheries SeaGrant Local

climate, urban Urban NSF Local

Water State

storm surge, coastal flooding, vulnerability

The Trust for Public Land

marine resource management, Long Island Sound, fisheries

ecological assessment

The Nature Conservancy

Human Health - Local




heat mortality, urban Human Health - Local



Temperature, Humidity, urban heat island

Temperature, Humidity, urban heat island

heat warnings, heat mortality, urban

asthma, urban, allergens

heat mortality, social vulnerability

Water - Regional

Water - Local

Extreme Events NYSERDIA State

Coasts COCA Local

Temperature stress, optimal releases, ecological health.

Reservoir management, climate change, water allocation

Hudson River, storm surge, flood, social vulnerability, critical infrastructure

storm surge, coastal flooding, vulnerability, resilience

Coasts COCA Local

Coasts Local

Water NYCDPR Local

Adaptation/Mitigation NYCDPR, NSF Local

Extreme Events NYCDPR Local




Climate change adaptation, green infrastructure,water treatment

Green-infrastructure, adaptation, combined sewer overflow, climate change

extreme events, climate change

Adaptation/Mitigation USDA Local

Adaptation/Mitigation Local

Adaptation/Mitigation NSF Local

Adaptation/Mitigation - Local

Coasts Local


Green-infrastructure, resilience, carbon sequestration, transpiration, climate change

Green infrastructure, Hurricane Sandy, adaptation, climate change


Green infrastructure, mitigation, city, urban space, adaptation, climate change

Green infrastructure, agent-based model, adaptation, climate change

storm surge, coastal flooding, coastal adaptation

COCA, SeaGrant, Jersey City (Matching Funds via Staff Time)

Coastal flooding, storm surge, adaptation, sea level rise, protection, water quality

Water Regional

Water - Local

Water - Local

reservoir, management, climate change, environmental flows

Nature Conservancy, USACE

water, climate, climate change scenarios, water supply, weather generators

water, climate, resampling, operating rules, screening tool, robustness

Water - Local

Extreme Events Regional


Urban Local

Adaptation/Mitigation NYSERDA State

water, climate, resampling, operating rules, screening tool, robustness

ensemble forecast, flooding, tropical cyclone

Naval Research Laboratory

climate, urban, adaptation

USGCRP National Climate Assessment

Adaptation, Building Footprint, Storm Surge

Regional (i.e. multi-state)

USDA NIFA Regional (i.e. multi-state)

integrated modeling, scenarios, downscaling, projections, climate, hydrology, vegetation

Adaptation, Agriculture, Coasts, Drought, Ecosystems, Extreme Events, Forestry, Natural Hazards, Tribal, Water Resources

DOI CSCs, USDA NIFA

dataset, historical climatology

Agriculture, Drought, Water Resources

Regional

NSF Local

integrated modeling, scenarios, downscaling, projections, climate, hydrology, vegetation, data access, data access, visualization, web mapping

Adaptation, Agriculture, Coasts, Drought, Ecosystems, Extreme Events, Forestry, Natural Hazards, Tribal, Water Resources

DOI CSCs (USGS CIDA, NPLCC non-funding)

scarcity, water, agent based modeling

Agriculture, Infrastructure, Drought, Economy, Ecosystems, Fisheries, Forestry, Recreation Tourism, Urban, Water Resources

NSF Local

Local, Regional

water scarcity, water law/policy

Legal Issues, Water Resources

network, water management, extension

Agriculture, Drought, Economy, Ecosystems, Equity Issues, Forestry, Recreation/Tourism, Water Resources

DOI/Bureau of Reclamation

Local

networks, coasts, hazards, erosion, scenarios, extension

Adaptation, Infrastructure, Coasts, Drought, Economy, Ecosystems, Extreme Events, Forestry, Legal Issues, Natural Hazards, Recreation/Tourism, Tribal, Urban

COCA, Sea Grant, SARP

Regional, National

climate information clearninghouse, monthly newsletter, periodic magazine, social media

Other: communications, media

NOAA RISA, DOI CSC

Regional

assessment report Regional

Regional

report, climate impacts and risks

Other: Impacts Assessment


land use, cover change, regional climate assessment


Regional (i.e. multi-state)water supply, adaptation

Infrastructure, Drought, Economy, Extreme Events, Energy, Water Resources

Seattle Public Utilities, Portland Water Bureau

NIDIS, USDA-NIDIS Regional

Regional

Local

drought, system, watersheds

Drought, Water Resources

Columbia river basin, hydrologic sensitivity, subbasins

Agriculture, Infrastructure, Drought, Economy, Ecosystems, Energy, Extreme Events, Water Resources


NCAR Local

Sea Grant Extension Local

land use, land cover change, irrigation


coasts, risks, adaptation

Adaptation, Intrastructure, Coasts, Fisheries

training, extension Regional

Adaptation, Agriculture, Coasts, Drought, Fisheries, Forestry, Water Resources

Sea Grant Extension, USDA State Extension

NOAA RISA Regional

outlooks NOAA RCC Regional

State

land managers, adaptation, best practices

Adaptation, Forestry, Water Resources

Agriculture, Drought, Ecosystems, Water Resources

adaptation planning, hazard mitigation

Adaptation, Infrastructure, Extreme Events, Human Health, Natural Hazards, Urban

Local

adaptation planning Local

vulnerability, mitigation, adaptive capacity

Adaptation, Infrastructure, Economy, Ecosystems, Energy, Extreme Events, Equity Issues, Forestry, Human Health, Natural Hazards, Transportation, Urban, Water Resources

City of Eugene (no funding)

Adaptation, Infrastructure, Economy, Energy, Human Health, Urban

City of Portland, Multnomah County, Oregon (no funding)

Local

DOI CSCs (NW CSC) Regional

public health, assessment, adaptation

Adaptation, Human Health, Urban

Benton County, Oregon Health Authority, Centers for Disease Control

tribal, culture, climate change, adaptation

Adaptation, Ecosystems, Equity Issues, Tribal

Regional

TRIG (no funding) Local

TRIG (no funding) Local

NIDIS Regional (i.e. multi-state)

society, adaptation, professionals

Adaptation, Legal Issues, Other: Professional Society

MacArthur and Kresge Foundations

public health, planning, climate data

Adaptation, Human Health, Urban

impacts, planning, resilience, adaptation

Adaptation, Infrastructure, Economy, Human Health, National Security, Transportation, Urban

drought, drought impacts, drought monitoring, citizen science

Drought, Ecosystems, Water Resources

SARP Regional (i.e. multi-state)

NIDIS Regional (i.e. multi-state)


drought, drought indices, drought impacts, coastal ecosystems, coastal resource management

Coasts, Drought, Ecosystems

drought, hydrology, climate, extremes

Drought, Extreme Events, Water Resources

coastal climate, fisheries, climate change

Adaptation, Coasts, Fisheries

COCA, NIDIS, Sea Grant

Adaptation, Coasts COCA, Sea Grant Local (i.e. a city or county)

Adaptation, Coasts Sea Grant Local (i.e. a city or county)

coastal climate, sea level rise, adaptation

sea level rise, adaptation, climate change


public health, heat vulnerability, waterborne disease, extreme events

Extreme Events, Human Health

NOAA RCCs, State Climate Office of NC


public health, Vibrio, shellfish

Coasts, Fisheries, Human Health

NOAA Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomolecular Research (CCEHBR)


None Regional (i.e. multi-state)

coastal climate, natural resources management, sea level rise, vegetation change

Adaptation, Coasts, Ecosystems

DOI CSCs, USDA Forest Service, Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center; USDA-DOE Terrestrial Ecosystem Science Program; USDA NIFA; USFWS (Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge; NASA

climate and hydrological modeling, watersheds

Coasts, Water Resources

None Local (i.e. a city or county)

None National

climate change, streamflow, watershed modeling

Coasts, Drought, Fisheries

climate change, precipitation, extreme events

Extreme Events, Climate Change

Adaptation, Coasts Sea Grant Regional (i.e. multi-state)


Adaptation Regional (i.e. multi-state)

coastal climate, extension

coastal climate, extension

Adaptation, Coasts, Climate Change

Sea Grant, NOAA Southeast and Caribbean Regional Team

adaptation, climate variability, climate change, adaptive capacity, decision support

NOAA RCCs, Sea Grant

Adaptation Local (i.e. a city or county)


NIDIS, NOAA RCCs Regional (i.e. multi-state)

coastal climate, extension, adaptation planning, mediated modeling

COCA, Sea Grant, SARP, NOAA Office for Coastal Manage

climate change, planning, water resources

Infrastructure, Water Resources, Climate Change

drought, drought indices, drought monitoring

Drought, Natural Hazards

NOAA RCCs, TRACS Regional (i.e. multi-state)

Coasts Sea Grant Local (i.e. a city or county)

drought, drought monitoring

Drought, Natural Hazards, Water Resources

coastal climate, community adaptation, beach erosion

health, ozone, climate change, vulnerable populations, air quality

Air Quality, Human Health

EPA (grants to support air quality research); NC Climate Ready Program



emergency management; climate services

Extreme Events, Natural Hazards

National Weather Service, Federal Emergency Management Agency

health; air quality; drought

Air Quality, Drought, Extreme Events

National Weather Service, U.S. EPA Border 2012; New Mexico Dept. of Health

Local (i.e. a city or county), State (i.e. multiple locales within a state), Regional (i.e. multi-state)

NIDIS, SARP Local (i.e. a city or county)



Native American; drought; climate adaptation

Adaptation, Natural Hazards, Tribal

public opinion; climate change; communication

Adaptation, Economy, Energy

Univ. of Arizona - Institute of the Environment; Stanford University


climate extremes; preparedness; adaptation

Adaptation, Extreme Events, Natural Hazards

City of Las Vegas; Urban Sustainability Directors Network

climate extremes; climate change; adaptation

Adaptation, Extreme Events, Urban

Adaptation

Water Resources Local (i.e. a city or county)

climate services; science policy; knowledge co-production


Local (i.e. a city or county), State (i.e. multiple locales within a state), Regional (i.e. multi-state), National, International

climate change; Gila River; hydrology

The Nature Conservancy – U.S. Bureau of Reclamation WaterSmart Grant


Adaptation Regional (i.e. multi-state)

scenario planning; climate knowledge exchange; Colorado River Basin

Adaptation, Water Resources


adaptation; climate science translation



Cotton Incorporated National

water transfers; local economy; risk

Agriculture, Economy, Extreme Events

U.S. Geological Survey; U.S. Bureau of Reclamation; U.S. National Park Service; Cotton Incorporated; Yuma County Arizona Cooperative Extension

cap and trade; renewable energy; water policy

Agriculture, Economy, Energy


None

irrigation; information; technology

Agriculture, Economy, Water Resources

U.S. Dept. of Agriculture – National Agricultural Statistics Service; U.S. Dept. of Agriculture – Economic Research Service; U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

communication; climate services; outlooks

Climate Communication



water resources; economic incentives; water banks

Economy, Energy, Water Resources

NOAA RCCs, SARP, Univ. of Arizona Office of Arid Lands Studies; U.S. Bureau of Reclamation; Walton Family Foundation; Sonoran Institute; U.S. Department of Agriculture – Agriculture and Food Research Initiative

None National, Internationalmosquito; dengue; model

Extreme Events, Human Health

USDA Hubs

NIDIS, SARP

weather extremes; agriculture; adaptation

Adaptation, Agriculture, Drought

Local (i.e. a city or county), State (i.e. multiple locales within a state)

drought monitoring; remote sensing; decision support tool

Agriculture, Drought, Natural Hazards

Local (i.e. a city or county), State (i.e. multiple locales within a state), Regional (i.e. multi-state), National


drought planning; hydroclimatic extremes; climate monitoring

Natural Hazards, Tribal

NIDIS, SARP, NASA Space Grant

Climate None Regional (i.e. multi-state)

None

None

climate services; climate communication

climate services; outreach; climate communication

Climate Communication


Climate Extremes, Vulnerability, Resilience

Adaptation, Extreme Events, Human Health


Adaptation, mitigation None

None National


risk management, vulnerability, strategic planning

Adaptation, Economy, Energy

University of Arizona Office of Research and Discovery and the Senior Vice President for Research


ecology, phenology, seasonality


Organizational learning; Organizational ethnography; Boundary organizations

Institutional Ethnography

Climate change; water governance; adaptive capacity


International

Education National

water policy; metrics; water security


Univ. of Arizona – Udall Center for Public Policy

education; co-production; decision-making

Univ. of Arizona – School of Geography and Development

Water, Resource management, tree rings

Natural Hazards, Water Resources

NIDIS, NOAA – National Climatic Data Center, Paleoclimatology Program

Local (i.e. a city or county), Regional (i.e. multi-state)

DOI CSCs Regional (i.e. multi-state)

Water Resources None Regional (i.e. multi-state)

drought, tree rings, model scenarios


water policy; Colorado River

evaluation, metrics evaluation None Regional (i.e. multi-state)


Communication None Regional (i.e. multi-state)

forestry, natural resource management, drought

Drought, Forestry, Tribal

CLIMAS – Climate & Society Fellowship Program; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency – Science to Achieve Results (STAR) Graduate Fellowship Program

paleoclimatology, caving, methodology

Recreation/Tourism, paleoclimate

CLIMAS – Climate & Society Fellowship Program


soils, science writing, methodology

climate policy, law Legal Issues, policy National

Human Health None

education, outreach NOAA RCCs

CLIMAS – Climate & Society Fellowship Program

Climate Change, West Nile virus, Valley Fever


Drought, Extreme Events, education



None

Drought, precipitation, water resources, decision support tool, California


NIDIS, NOAA RCCs, California DWR


floods, emergencies, atmospheric rivers, climate risks and vulnerabilities

Adaptation, Extreme Events, Natural Hazards


water, ecosystems, California Delta

Coasts, Fisheries, Water Resources


National


LCCs Regional (i.e. multi-state)

wildfire USFS Regional (i.e. multi-state)

Tribal LCCs Regional (i.e. multi-state)

natural resources LCCs, BLM

weather, forecasts, wildfire

Air Quality, Forestry, wildfire

National Weather Service, Joint Fire Science Program

weather and climate variability and change

Extreme Events, Natural Hazards

climate, decision support, outreach Air Quality, Energy,

Forestry, Tribal, Water Resources

wildfire, extreme, fire behavior, climatetribal, climate resiliency, climate adaptation

scenario planning, adaptation, decision support


Urban, wildfire

Drought NIDIS

wildfire, climate, decision support

National Weather Service, USFS


California, drought, early warning, indicator, forecast, monitoring


Drought Regional (i.e. multi-state)

US Forest Service National

Forestry None Regional (i.e. multi-state)

Drought, drought plan, indicator, trigger, Western states

Western States Governors' Association

wildfire, decision support, operating plans

Ecosystems, Forestry, Land management

Southerwest monsoon, wild fire, resource management, Great Basin

DOI CSCs

Air Quality, Forestry National

Precipitation extremes, probability structure, point observations, gridded data, modeling

Extreme Events, Water Resources

Local (i.e. a city or county), International

controlled burns, mixing height, atmopsheric science


NIDIS, SARP Local (i.e. a city or county)

National

None

drought, Russian River

Agriculture, Drought, Ecosystems, Extreme Events, Water Resources

climate projections, downsclaing

Adaptation, Extreme Events, Water Resources

USACE, US Burea of Reclamation

water resources, climate adaptation

Adaptation, Drought, Water Resources


COCA, Sea Grant


regional climate change, sea level rise

Adaptation, Coasts, Extreme Events


climate change, monitoring, indicators, regional ocean ecosystem

Adaptation, Coasts, Ecosystems, Fisheries

B Duncan was a UCAR PACE PostDoc.

USDA Forest Service Regional (i.e. multi-state)

climate wildfire health

wildfire climate fuels forest management

Adaptation, Air Quality, Drought, Ecosystems, Extreme Events, Forestry, Natural Hazards

Adaptation, Air Quality, Natural Hazards

California Department of Public Health, California Energy Commission


None

fisheries, native americans, integrated assessment

Adaptation, Ecosystems, Fisheries, Tribal, Water Resources


Adaptation, Coasts IOOS, GLERL Regional (i.e. multi-state)

None

data management, IOOS, GLOS, standardization

ensemble, vulnerability assessment, municipal planning

Adaptation, Infrastructure, Natural Hazards, Urban, Water Resources

Regional (i.e. multi-state), International



vulnerable populations, urban adaptation

Adaptation, Equity Issues, Human Health, Urban

water storage, agriculture, nutrient loading, nutrient loss

Drought, Ecosystems, Water Resources

USDA Hubs, USDA ARS

None Regional (i.e. multi-state)Tribal, rural, forests, adaptation planning

Adaptation, Forestry, Natural Hazards, Tribal, Water Resources

Noneinfrastructure, protocol, urban

Adaptation, Infrastructure, Coasts, Extreme Events, Transportation, Urban, Water Resources

Local (i.e. a city or county), Regional (i.e. multi-state)

National Park Service Local (i.e. a city or county)

Lake Action Management Plans, water quality, GLWQA

Ecosystems, Extreme Events, Water Resources

NOAA RCCs, Sea Grant


national parks, culture, natural resources

Adaptation, Coasts, Natural Hazards, Recreation/Tourism

Forestry, Urban, Water Resources

University of Hawaii Water Resources Research Center


Adaptation, Drought, Economy, Ecosystems, Water Resources

University of Hawaii Water Resources Research Center


Adaptation, Infrastructure, Natural Hazards, Water Resources

other: USGS PIWSC other: DoD SERDP




Adaptation, Legal Issues, Natural Hazards, Water Resources

DOI CSCs, NOAA RCSDs, USGCRP National Climate Assesment, USGCRP National Climate Assessment

Infrastructure, Drought, Water Resources

USGS- Pacific Islands Water Science Center

USGS PIWSC Local (i.e. a city or county)


Drought, Urban, Water Resources

Water Resources, Policy, Evaluation

None


PICCC (LCC) International


Adaptation, Human Health, Water


Adaptation, Water Resources, Downscaling, Hawaii Regional Climate Model

Ecosystems, Conservation, Islands

Infrastructure, Extreme Events, Natural Hazards


International

NIDIS Local (i.e. a city or county)

NIDIS, SARP

Adaptation, Legal Issues, Water Resources

Sea Grant, Sea Grant (through previously funding the UH Island Climate Adaptation and Policy [ICAP] center)

Drought, Natural Hazards, Water Resources

NOAA RCSDs, DOI PICSC and the DOI PICCC

drought, water resource management, climate change, vulnerability

Adaptation, Agriculture, Drought, Equity Issues, Legal Issues, Recreation/Tourism, Water Resources

water utility, innovation, diffusion, climate change, policy, vulnerability

Adaptation, Drought, Extreme Events, Equity Issues, Natural Hazards, Urban, Water Resources, Rural


NOAA RCCs

NOAA RCCs

NOAA RCCs

storm surge, tropical weather, hurricanes, coastal flooding, global, review

Infrastructure, Coasts, Economy, Ecosystems, Energy, Extreme Events, Fisheries, Forestry, Human Health, Natural Hazards, Recreation/Tourism, Transportation


storm surge, history, coastal flooding, risk assessment

Infrastructure, Coasts, Economy, Ecosystems, Energy, Extreme Events, Fisheries, Forestry, Natural Hazards, Recreation/Tourism, Transportation


storm surge, risk assessment, return levels, coastal flooding, natural hazards

Adaptation, Infrastructure, Coasts, Economy, Ecosystems, Energy, Extreme Events, Fisheries, Natural Hazards, Recreation/Tourism, Transportation


NOAA RCCs

None

None



storm surge, oil and gas, energy, hazard, hazmat, toxic, risk

Adaptation, Infrastructure, Coasts, Economy, Ecosystems, Energy, Extreme Events, Fisheries, Natural Hazards, Recreation/Tourism, Transportation


Precipitation climatology, Synoptic Weather Types, Muller Climate Classification

Drought, Economy, Ecosystems, Forestry, Natural Hazards, Recreation/Tourism, Water Resources

State (i.e. multiple locales within a state), Regional (i.e. multi-state)

water managers, recreation/tourism, water resources

Infrastructure, Recreation/Tourism, Water Resources


drought, ecological, land management, refuge, survey, interview

Adaptation, Drought, Ecosystems, Fisheries, Forestry

DOI CSCs, LCCs, NIDIS, NOAA RCSDs, NGOs

assessment, LCC, climate, weather

Adaptation, Coasts, Drought, Ecosystems, Extreme Events, Fisheries, Forestry, Natural Hazards

DOI CSCs, LCCs, NOAA RCSDs, NOAA RCCs


climate education, hazards, tribal

Adaptation, Drought, Extreme Events, Natural Hazards, Tribal



drought, landscapes Drought SARP National

NIDIS, NOAA RCSDs Regional (i.e. multi-state)

critical thresholds, hazards, community engagement

Infrastructure, Extreme Events, Water Resources

mangrove forests, extreme events, climate change

Ecosystems, Extreme Events, Forestry

USGS National Wetlands Research Center


drought, waterfowl, coasts

Coasts, Drought, Ecosystems

Rio Grande-Rio Bravo Basin, drought, climate change and variability, extreme events

Drought, Extreme Events, Natural Hazards

NIFA

Agriculture NOAA Regional (i.e. multi-state)

Agriculture N/A

Agriculture USDA-NIFA Regional (i.e. multi-state)

Agriculture USDA-NIFA-AFRI Regional (i.e. multi-state)


Corn, Aflatoxin, Drought



Aflatoxin, ARID, drought index, corn, risk

climate forecast, nitrogen fertilization, corn


climate forecast, wheat, insect pest

climate forecast, wheat, wheat varieties, heading date

Adaptation, Agriculture, Equity Issues, Minority

USDA-NIFA Regional (i.e. multi-state)

Agriculture USDA Regional (i.e. multi-state)

USDA, NASA, NSF

Adaptation, Southeast, Agriculture, Extension

Adaptation, Agriculture, Drought, Extreme Events

Irrigation scheduling, Soil moisture sensor, Wireless, ET, Decision support tool, Southeast

Adaptation, Agriculture, Drought, Water Resources



ENSO, Hurrricanes, Drought

Water, Water stress, Agriculture

Agriculture, Drought, Economy, Water Resources


Irrigation Scheduling, Smartphone, Apps, ET, Decision support tool, Southeast

Adaptation, Agriculture, Drought, Water Resources



National

NIDIS

None National

NIDIS

NIDIS

Livestock, Poultry, Extension, mitigation, adaption

Adaptation, Agriculture, Extreme Events

National Weather Service, SARP

Future Climate, IDF Curve, Design Storm

Adaptation, Urban, Water Resources


Point Source Pollution, NPDES, Climate Variability


Drought, Future Climate



Erosion, Furture Climate



IFPRI, CIMMYT

Coasts NSF

Managing seasonal variability, Seasonal forecasts, Climate change impact, Uncertainty

Adaptation, Agriculture, Drought, Extreme Events


Water, Sea Level Rise


Adaptation/Mitigation NOAA Regional (i.e. multi-state)

Forestry USDA-NIFA Regional (i.e. multi-state)

Climate change, sea-level rise, hurricanes

Team Science, Pine plantations, Interdisciplinary research, Social network analysis

Extreme Events NOAA Regional (i.e. multi-state)

Downscaling, Climate Ecosystems DOI CSCs Local (i.e. a city or county)

Hurricanes, Atlantic Warm Pool

Water NSF

Water State

Water management, Seasonal forecast skill


Public water supply, water, climate change and variability, seasonal forecasts, long term climate scenarios, sea level rise

Water NOAA

Working group, Knowledge Management




Extension, Professional Development, Climate Change

Adaptation, Agriculture, Coasts, Drought, Economy, Extreme Events, Fisheries, Natural Hazards, Urban, Water Resources

Sea Grant, USDA Hubs

SimCLIM, DSSAT, Climate, Downscale, Maize, Cotton, Winter wheat, Peanut



Water Resources SARP Local (i.e. a city or county)

Extreme events Extreme Events None Regional (i.e. multi-state)

Water Resources

Decision making; optimization; multi-objective evolutionary algorithms; water resources management

Climate change; vulnerability assessment; water supply planning



Water Resources Regional (i.e. multi-state)

Drought DOI CSCs Local (i.e. a city or county)

Adaptation None Local (i.e. a city or county)

Water; education Water Resources None International

Forestry USDA Hubs Local (i.e. a city or county)

Water supply planning; snow

NIDIS, National Weather Service

Drought; water supply planning; Tribal issues

Adaptation; climate change; federal facilities

Vulnerability; climate change; forests

Water Resources None

Adaptation None

Ecosystems DOI CSCs Regional (i.e. multi-state)

Water Resources Local (i.e. a city or county)

Climate change; projections; water resources


Adaptation; vulnerability; climate change


Evaporation; drought; climate science

Climate change; vulnerability assessment; water supply planning


Adaptation USDA Hubs Regional (i.e. multi-state)

Adaptation DOI CSCs Local (i.e. a city or county)

Water Resources Regional (i.e. multi-state)

Adaptation; risk management; decision making

Adaptation; decision making; conservation; ecosystems

Web resource; climate dashboard

DOI CSCs, USDA Hubs

Geographic Location Program Objectives

Bristol Bay region

Alaska - state wide

Alaska - state wide

Alaska - state wide

Alaska - state wide

Understanding Context and Risk



Supporting Knowledge Exchange


Alaska - state wide

Alaska - state wide

Alaska - state wide

Alaska - state wide





North Slope Borough

Alaska - state wide Innovating Services

Alaska - state wide



Decision Context

Decision Context

Northern New Jersey/ Southern New York coast

Jamaica Bay, Queens, New York

Decision Context

Knowledge Networks

Knowledge Networks

New York City Innovating Services




Central and western Massachusetts; Connecticut

Science Policy

Long Island Sound Interdisciplinary Research

Philadelphia, PA Interdisciplinary Research

Hudson Valley Decision Context

South Brooklyn and Staten Island, New York

New York City Interdisciplinary Research

New York City Decision Context






Decision Context

Newark, NJ Decision Context

New York State Decision Context

New York City & Boston Decision Context

Delaware River basin (Eastern PA & New Jersey)

New York City & Boston Decision Context

Science Policy

Philadelphia, PA Decision Context



South Brooklyn and Staten Island, New York




Philadelphia, PA Decision Context

Jersey City, NJ Decision Context


Decision Context



Central and western Massachusetts; Connecticut


Northeastern US Interdisciplinary Research



New York State Decision Context

Washington, Idaho, Oregon


Understanding Context and Risk, Supporting Knowledge Exchange



Willamette River

Understanding Context and Risk, Supporting Knowledge Exchange, Innovating Services


Willamette RiverUnderstanding Context and Risk, Advancing Science Policy

Big Wood River Basin, Idaho

Understanding Context and Risk, Supporting Knowledge Exchange, Innovating Services, Advancing Science Policy

Tillamook County, Oregon


Washington, Idaho, Oregon, western Montana


Northwest

Northwest

Northwest

Understanding Context and Risk, Supporting Knowledge Exchange, Advancing Science Policy



Seattle, Portland


Northwest

Columbia River Basin

Snake River Basin, Idaho




Snake River Basin, IdahoUnderstanding Context and Risk

Clatsop and Tillamook Counties


Oregon

Northern Rockies (Idaho, Montana, northwest Wyoming, North Dakota, and northern South Dakota) and the Blue Mountains (northeastern Oregon and southeastern Washington)


Great Basin (CA, NV, OR, UT)



City of Eugene, Oregon


City of Portland, Multnomah County, Oregon


Benton County

Oregon, Idaho


Understanding Context and Risk, Supporting Knowledge Exchange,

National

Willamette Valley

Willamette Valley

North and South Carolina





Innovating Services

North and South Carolina Innovating Services

Innovating Services

Coastal North and South Carolina

Beaufort County, SC; South Thomaston, ME; Wellfleet, MA

Beaufort County, SC Innovating Services

City of Beaufort, SC; Town for Port Royal, SC

Supporting Knowledge Exchange, Innovating Services

North Carolina Innovating Services

Winyah Bay estuary, SC Innovating Services

Innovating Services

Innovating Services

Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge, NC

Winyah Bay Watershed, NC & SC

Ediso River watershed Innovating Services

North America Innovating Services

North and South Carolina

coastal North and South Carolina


Southeast and Caribbean United States



Carrboro, NC

Innovating Services

Communities in the coastal Carolinas (Sullivan's Island, McClellanville, Beaufort County, SC; Plymouth, Nags Head and Hyde County, NC)


Understanding Context and Risk, Innovating Services

The project is based in NC; the tool covers the continental U.S.

Innovating Services

City of Folly Beach, SC Advancing Science Policy

North Carolina Innovating Services

states of SC and NC, expanded to cover 18 states in the eastern U.S.

FEMA Region 9 (AZ, CA, NV, HI, and Pacific Island Territories)


New Mexico, W Texas, NE Arizona, NW Chihuahua, SE Colorado


Hopi Tribal Lands

Arizona

NV, UT, CO, AZ, NM, TX


Understanding Context and Risk, Advancing Science Policy


Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma


N/A


Upper Gila River Basin, New Mexico


Colorado River Basin

N/A



National Advancing Science Policy

Lower Colorado River Basin (including Mexico); Rio Grande Basin. Also Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas


Innovating Services

U.S. Southwest

17 westernmost contiguous U.S. states


Colorado and Rio Grande River Basins


Southwest U.S., Southern U.S, Northern U.S., Florida Keys, Puerto Rico


Innovating Services

Graham, Greenlee, Cochise, and Santa Cruz Counties


Arizona and New Mexico mostly; also across the U.S.

Hopi Reservation and Navajo Reservation

Understanding Context and Risk, Innovating Services, Advancing Science Policy

Southwest U.S.

Southwest U.S.

Arizona and New Mexico




Southern Arizona


Southern Arizona; Southwest U.S.


Location of each RISA program

Supporting Knowledge Exchange, Innovating Services, Advancing Science Policy

Tucson, AZ; the Binational region of the Colorado River Delta; and the Upper Gulf of California

Supporting Knowledge Exchange, Advancing Science Policy

Classes are in Tucson, AZ

Watersheds of the U.S.

Global. Workshop in Tucson, AZ




Colorado River Basin

Upper Colorado River Basin



Arizona and New Mexico

Caves in S. Arizona

Arizona to Canada

Innovating Services, Advancing Science Policy

Chuska Mountains, New Mexico




Tucson, AZ

Arizona

CA/NV




California Understanding Context and Risk, Innovating Services

Tahoe-Reno-Carson City areas


Calfornia Delta and Central Valley drainage


national Innovating Services

Southwestern US

Great Basin

Western United States

Great Basin

Nevada



Understanding Context and RiskUnderstanding Context and Risk, Supporting Knowledge Exchange


California

California



Western US

U.S.

Southwest U.S. Innovating Services



National Innovating Services

thousands of locations over the globe


California, Russian RIver

California


US, southern Canada and Nothern Mexico



Gulf of Farallones

Santa Barbara County, coast of California



Western US

California, by county



Lake MichiganSupporting Knowledge Exchange

Ann Arbor, MI Innovating Services

York, OntarioUnderstanding Context and Risk, Innovating Services

Saint Paul, MN

Western Lake Erie Basin



Northern Michigan, Northern Minnesota


Gary, INUnderstanding Context and Risk, Innovating Services

New York, Lake Ontario

Apostle Islands, WI



(Fagaalu Watershed) Tutuila Island, American Samoa


Guam

Tutuila Island, American Samoa



Maui Island Hawaii

Hawaii and the US Affiliated Pacific Islands



Maui County, Maui Island, Hawaii


Hawaii and the US Affiliated Pacific Islands


Hawaii

Pacific Basin


Hawaii, Guam and American Samoa


Pacific Islands, Caribbean Islands



Hawaii; American Sāmoa

Texas Panhandles

Oklahoma

Supporting Knowledge Exchange, Innovating Services, Advancing Science Policy

Republic of the Marshall Islands American Samoa




Global

US Gulf Coast

US Gulf Coast




US Gulf Coast

Louisiana

Oklahoma




South Central U.S., primarily Texas and Oklahoma


Survey distributed to all LCCs (national)


Four towns in Oklahoma (Wyandotte, Fort Cobb, Durant, Stroud)


Louisiana

Gulf Coast

National

Oklahoma, Colorado, New Mexico





Rio-Grande Rio Bravo Basin


Alabama

Alabama

Alabama

Alabama, Georgia

Alabama, Georgia

n/a







Southeast USA

Lower Flint River Basin

Florida, Georgia, Alabama

Alabama, Southeast

Florida and Georgia






Alabama

Alabama

Alabama

Alabama

Nebraska, Washington. Texas, New York, Minnesota, Georgia






SE US

Florida



Florida

Southeast USA



Florida

Puerto Rico



Florida

Florida Knowledge Networks


Florida


Athens, GA

Georgia, Alabama, Florida



Innovating Services

CO, WY, UT

UT Innovating Services

Front Range Urban Corridor


CO, WY, UT

Innovating Services

Innovating Services


Wind River Reservation, WY

National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO

Entire West covered in curriculum, students from across the globe


Ashley and Uinta-Wasatch-Cache National Forests, UT


CO

CO

Salt Lake City Innovating Services



DOI North Central Climate Science Center Region


CO, WY, UT

Innovating Services

CO, WY, UT Innovating Services


Gunnison River Basin, southwestern Colorado

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